USD/CAD held a 1.3950-1.4000 band Monday and Tuesday until Tuesday's NY push to a 1.4014 week high reversed sharply in Wednesday's Asia session on the post-midterm USD selling. The drop broke the Mon-Tue lows and reached a 1.3929 week low before the NY open, but the move failed: rising lows since then have lifted price back to the 50% retracement of Wednesday's drop, just above EMA(20) and level with EMA(50). The 1.3977 rebound cap, which also lines up with last Friday's close, has turned back three tests, and RSI(14) near 51 is neutral.
Support: 1.3962, 1.3950, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.3977, 1.3995, 1.4014
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3977 rebound cap opens a retest of the 1.3995 monday high and the 1.4000 handle below the 1.4014 week high
Loss of the rising lows near 1.3962 brings the 1.3950 mon-tue lows and the 1.3929 week low back into play
US jobless claims (Thu 13:30 UTC) and BoC's Macklem (Thu 15:30 UTC) could materially shift this read ahead of Friday's NFP and Canada LFS
USD/CAD has held a 1.3929–1.4014 range since Monday's open. Tuesday's NY-session rally stalled just above 1.4000 psych, the week high at 1.4014, before the post-midterm USD selloff hit in Wednesday's Asia session. That slide ran to a week low at 1.3929, a false break below the 1.3950 prior lows that was reclaimed into NY hours. Price now sits back above EMA(20) and the ema50, pressing the lower-high line just under the 61.8% fib of Wednesday's drop, while RSI(14) has recovered from near 30 to the mid-50s.
Support: 1.3971, 1.3950, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.3981, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 61.8% fib at 1.3981 and the lower-high line reopens 1.4000 psych and the 1.4014 week high
Loss of the ema50 at 1.3971 and the 1.3950 prior lows would put the 1.3929 week low back in play
Close below the 1.3929 week low exposes the 1.3900 area and turns the range read into a lower-low
US claims Thu 13:30 UTC and Macklem Thu 15:30 UTC could materially shift this read ahead of Fri NFP/LFS
21:02 UTC
Range, rolled over from the 1.4000 cap · RSI 47 · price 1.39629
Lower highs from 1.4014; rebound stalled at 1.3978 below the 61.8% fib.
Since Monday's open at 1.3959 the pair spent two sessions in a 1.3950–1.3995 range. Tuesday's NY push tagged a 1.4014 week high, but the round number at 1.4000 gave way to rejection in Wednesday's Asia session as the post-midterm USD selloff hit, and a London-NY transition dip below the tue low of 1.3950 set a 1.3929 week low that was reclaimed within the hour. The NY bounce as the dollar pared losses stalled at a 1.3978 bounce high, just short of the 61.8% fib of the midterm drop, extending the run of lower highs, with price now sitting at the 38.2% level and fractionally below EMA(20) as RSI(14) holds near 47.
Support: 1.3950, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.3978, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3978 bounce high breaks the lower highs and puts the 1.4000 round number and the 1.4014 week high back in play
Failure to hold the tue low at 1.3950 re-exposes the 1.3929 week low and the falling-wedge base near 1.3900
Thu 13:30 UTC US jobless claims and Macklem at 15:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Fri 13:30 UTC NFP and Canada LFS land together and can reset the whole weekly range
1.3950–1.4000 range with false breaks at both ends this week.
Monday and Tuesday held a 1.3950–1.4000 range. Tuesday's NY push through the round number to a 1.4014 week high reversed in Wednesday's Asia session as the Democratic midterm sweep hit the USD. The midterm drop extended in London below the range floor and Friday's 1.3941 prior low to a 1.3929 week low, then reversed into a false break as losses pared in NY after the ADP beat. Price now sits near the 50% retracement of the drop, just above EMA(20) and pinned at EMA(50), with RSI(14) back near 50 and the 1.3978 session high capping the rebound.
Support: 1.3950, 1.3941, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.3978, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.3950 range floor revives the downside break and reopens the 1.3941 prior low and 1.3929 week low
A break of the recovery lows line from the 1.3929 week low would undercut the NY rebound
Close above the 1.3978 session high and the 61.8% retracement of the midterm drop exposes the 1.4000 round number and 1.4014 week high
Macklem Thu 15:30 UTC, then Canada LFS and US NFP Fri 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
1.3950–1.4000 range; false break below to 1.3929 reclaimed.
USD/CAD held a 1.3950–1.4000 range through Monday and Tuesday. Tuesday's NY rally poked through the round number to a 1.4014 week high, and that high was rejected in Wednesday's Asia session as the Democratic midterm sweep hit the USD. The slide broke the range floor to a 1.3929 week low near the London-NY transition, but the break did not hold: NY hours lifted price to 1.3972, at the 50% retracement of the week's drop and just above EMA(20) near 1.3965 and a flat EMA(50). RSI(14) is back near 51, and the 1.3975 rebound high has capped two pushes this afternoon.
Support: 1.3965, 1.3950, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.3975, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3975 rebound high opens the path back to the 1.4000 round number and 1.4014 week high
Failure to hold EMA(20) and a close back below the 1.3950 range floor reopens the 1.3929 week low
Thu 13:30 UTC US jobless claims and BoC Macklem at 15:30 UTC could shift this read
Fri 13:30 UTC US NFP and Canada LFS land together and could materially reset the range
1.3950–1.4000 range with false breaks at both ends this week.
USDCAD ranged between the 1.3950 range floor and the 1.4000 round number on Monday and Tuesday. A late-Tuesday push to the 1.4014 week high reversed when the Democratic midterm sweep hit USD in the Asia session, and the slide extended to a 1.3929 week low into the London-NY transition. That break below the range floor and the prior-week low at 1.3941 was reclaimed during NY hours, but the rebound stalled at the 1.3976 wed cap, between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the week drop. Price now sits just above the week open and fractionally below EMA(20), with RSI(14) in the mid-40s.
Support: 1.3959, 1.3950, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.3976, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.3950 range floor would turn today's false break into a lower-low sequence and put the 1.3929 week low back in play
Clearance of the 1.3976 wed cap and the lower highs trendline would reopen the 1.4000 round number and the 1.4014 week high
US jobless claims Thu 13:30 UTC and Macklem Thu 15:30 UTC could shift this read; Friday NFP and Canada LFS land together at 13:30 UTC
WTI swings on US-Iran headlines remain the main CAD-side driver inside the range
1.3950–1.4014 weekly range; false break below the floor reclaimed.
USDCAD has held a 1.3950–1.4014 range since Monday's open. Tuesday's NY-session run to the week high was unwound in Wednesday's Asia session as the Democratic midterm sweep hit USD, and the extension to the 1.3929 week low during London failed to hold, with the ADP beat lifting price back above the range floor and EMA(20) during NY hours. Price now sits at the 50% retrace of the week drop, just under the 1.3976 lower highs that capped Wednesday's bounces, with RSI(14) recovered to 54.
Support: 1.3965, 1.3950, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.3976, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3976 lower highs and the 61.8% retrace near 1.3981 reopens the 1.4000 round number and the 1.4014 week high
A drop back below EMA(20) at 1.3965 and the 1.3950 range floor would leave the reclaim as a failed false break, exposing the 1.3929 week low
Thu Jobless Claims and Macklem at 15:30 UTC, then Fri NFP and Canada LFS at 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this range read
16:04 UTC
Downtrend from week high, below both EMAs · RSI 43 · price 1.39533
Failed 1.4000 break, lower highs, pinned at range floor.
Tuesday's NY-session push through 1.4000 to a 1.40136 week high failed in Wednesday's Asian session. The Democratic midterm sweep hit USD and knocked nearly 40 pips off in a single hour, and selling extended in London to a 1.39293 week low, under the 1.3941 prior low, before price snapped back to the 1.3950 range floor. Since then, a series of lower highs has formed. The ISM Services-hour spike to 1.39699 met rejection just shy of the 50% fib and closed back under ema20 (~1.3962). Price is holding below the 1.39586 week open, and RSI(14) has recovered to ~43 from 31 at the low.
Support: 1.3950, 1.39414, 1.39293
Resistance: 1.39586, 1.39625, 1.39715
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.3950 range floor exposes the 1.3941 prior low and the 1.39293 week low
Recovery above the week open and ema20, then the 50% fib at 1.3971, breaks the lower highs sequence and negates the downtrend read
US jobless claims Thu 13:30 UTC and BoC Macklem Thu 15:30 UTC could shift this read
NFP and Canada LFS land together Fri 13:30 UTC, a material risk to the structure
15:02 UTC
Downside impulse, stalling at range floor · RSI 41 · price 1.39529
Lower highs since Tuesday's peak; probe below the 1.3950 range floor.
Tuesday's NY-session rally to a 1.4014 week high was fully unwound after the Democratic midterm sweep hit USD during Asia hours. The pair has carved lower highs below EMA(20) since, and the 50% fib of the Tue–Wed drop at 1.3972 capped Wednesday's chop. The London-NY transition dip to a 1.3929 week low broke the 1.3950 range floor that held Monday through Wednesday, but price was pulled back to it into the NY open, leaving the break unconfirmed. RSI(14) sits near 41, with EMA(20) at 1.3963 overhead.
Support: 1.3950, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.3963, 1.3972, 1.4000
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3929 week low confirms the range floor break and a lower-low
H1 close back above ema20 and the lower-highs trendline near 1.3963 would mark the range floor probe as a false break
Reclaim of the 50% fib at 1.3972 reopens the 1.4000 round number that capped the week
ISM Services PMI at 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.8) could materially shift this read; Macklem Thu 15:30 UTC and Friday's Canada LFS follow
14:03 UTC
Short-term downtrend after a failed upside break · RSI 35 · price 1.39487
1.3950–1.4000 range broken lower; lower highs since Tuesday's 1.4014 week high.
Tuesday's push through 1.4000 to the 1.4014 week high did not hold. The midterm-driven USD flush in Wednesday's Asian session started a sequence of lower highs, and London took price through the 1.3950 range floor and the 1.3941 7-week low to a 1.3929 Wednesday low. The ADP beat lifted the pair back to 1.3950, where the old range floor and the descending trendline now converge just below the weekly open at 1.3959, with price under EMA(20) and RSI(14) in the mid-30s.
Support: 1.39414, 1.39293
Resistance: 1.3950, 1.39586, 1.40136
What it said to watch
ISM Services at 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.8), with S&P PMI at 14:45 UTC, could materially shift this read within the next bar
H1 close back above the 1.3959 weekly open and the descending trendline would turn the range break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.3941 7-week low and then the 1.3929 Wednesday low would extend the lower-high sequence
Macklem Thu 15:30 UTC and Friday's joint Canada/US jobs data are the next event risks for the range
13:02 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since week high · RSI 36 · price 1.39332
Range floor broken, new week low at 1.3929.
Wednesday's Asia session erased Tuesday's NY-led rally to the 1.4014 week high as the Democratic midterm sweep hit the USD. Into the London-NY transition, price broke the 1.3950 range floor that held Monday and Tuesday, then cleared Friday's 1.3941 7-week low to print a 1.3929 week low. Price sits below EMA(20) near 1.3964 and under the weekly open at 1.3959, with each hourly bounce today capped at a lower high. RSI(14) near 36 is still above oversold.
Support: 1.39293, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.39414, 1.3950, 1.39586
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above the 1.3950 range floor would turn the break of the 7-week low into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.3929 week low exposes the 1.3900 round number, the wedge bottom cited in CAD coverage
Lower-highs trendline from 1.4014 and the weekly open converge near 1.3958; a reclaim there breaks today's sequence
A move back through the 50% of the post-vote drop at 1.3972 would undo most of the Asia-session damage
ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) could materially shift this read; Macklem Thursday and Canada jobs Friday follow
12:02 UTC
Range-bound, pressing the range floor · RSI 41 · price 1.39554
1.3941–1.4014 range; lower highs since Tuesday's false break of 1.4000.
Tuesday's NY-session rally from the 1.3950 floor carried through the 1.4000 psych level to a 1.4014 week high, matching last Thursday's top. That break failed in early Asia on Wednesday when the Democrats' Congress sweep pulled US yields and the dollar lower, and the pair dropped about 40 pips in a single bar. London has since made lower highs below the EMA(20) near 1.3972 and printed a 1.3946 week low, which still holds above Friday's 1.3941 7-week low, with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 1.39458, 1.39414
Resistance: 1.3972, 1.4000, 1.40136
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3941 7-week low breaks the range floor that has held since Friday
ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read; a beat would test the drop's 38.2% retrace and ema20 near 1.3972
Recovery above 1.3972 eases the lower-high sequence; the 1.4000 psych and 1.4014 week high have rejected two attempts
A hold at the 1.3946 week low keeps the range read intact into the Macklem speech on Thursday
1.3946–1.4014 range, lower highs off double top, testing floor.
USD/CAD has held a 1.3946–1.4014 range all week. Tuesday's NY-session rally on firm US data stalled at the 1.4014 double top, then reversed in Asia hours as the Democratic midterm sweep pulled US yields lower. Price now sits below EMA(20) near 1.3971 and EMA(50), with lower highs since that drop and RSI(14) in the mid-40s, and Monday's and Tuesday's lows near 1.3950 were marginally undercut this morning to a new week low at 1.3946, just above the 1.3941 7-week low.
Support: 1.39458, 1.39414
Resistance: 1.39713, 1.4000, 1.40136
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3941 7-week low breaks the range floor
Recovery above the ema20 and the 38.2% fib near 1.3972 would break the lower-high sequence
Round number 1.4000 and the 1.4014 double top define the range top; a close above invalidates the range read
ADP 13:15 UTC and ISM Services 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the week low after the US data would confirm a lower-low on this timeframe
Range 1.3950–1.4010 with lower highs since the 1.4014 week high.
USD/CAD has held a 1.3950–1.4010 band since Sunday's 1.3959 open. Tuesday's rally ran from London open through NY to a 1.4014 week high, but the move above 1.4000 psych proved a false break. The Democratic Congress sweep knocked the pair back 30 pips in the Asia session, and it has since retraced the whole Tuesday leg. Price now sits below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 37, lower highs capping near 1.3976 overnight, and London pressure has pushed it onto the 1.3949 week low.
Support: 1.3949, 1.3941, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.3976, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3941 prior-week low (seven-week low) breaks the range floor and exposes the 1.3900 round number
Recovery above the 1.3976 lower highs and the 38.2% of the election drop fib reopens the range midpoint
A close back above 1.4000 psych and the 1.4014 week high would negate the false break read
ADP 13:15 UTC and ISM Services 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read, with Macklem Thu 15:30 UTC and Canada/US jobs Friday behind them
09:02 UTC
Range, downside momentum after election drop · RSI 42 · price 1.39562
1.3941–1.4014 range; second rejection at range top, price back on week low.
USD/CAD has held a 1.3941–1.4014 range across the window. Tuesday's NY-session rally on the JOLTS beat ran through the 1.4000 round number but stalled at the range top, matching last Thursday's high. The Democratic sweep then knocked the pair about 40 pips lower in the Asia session, retracing nearly all of Tuesday's move and putting price back on the 1.3950 week low for a third test, with bounces capped near the ema20 around 1.3975 and RSI(14) around 42.
Support: 1.3950, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3975, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3950 week low and the 1.3941 7-week low breaks the range floor and completes a double-top read
Recovery back above the ema20 near 1.3975 would neutralise the post-election drop
ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) today could materially shift this read
Macklem speech Thu 15:30 UTC and Canada/US jobs Fri 13:30 UTC are the next range-break catalysts
Another approach to the 1.4000 round number and 1.4014 range top would test supply a third time
USD/CAD has been boxed all week between a 1.3950 range floor, where London-morning lows held on both Monday and Tuesday, and the 1.4014 range top, which matches last Thursday's high. Tuesday's NY-session rally to 1.4014 was rejected in Asia as the Democratic Congress sweep hit the dollar. The reversal retraced about 86% of the move back to the weekly open at 1.3959. Price now sits below the ema20 near 1.3977 with RSI(14) at 39, and lower highs around 1.3976 have capped every rebound since the drop.
Support: 1.3959, 1.3950, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3977, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3950 range floor breaks the week's structure and exposes the 1.3941 7-week low
Recovery back above the ema20 at 1.3977 reopens the round number 1.4000 and the 1.4014 range top
US ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) today could materially shift this read
BoC Macklem speech Thu 15:30 UTC is the next CAD-side risk to the range
07:02 UTC
Range-bound, momentum turned lower in Asia · RSI 41 · price 1.3968
USD/CAD has held a 1.3950–1.4014 range since the week opened. Demand stepped in at the week low on both Monday and Tuesday, and Tuesday's NY-hours rally ran to a week high at 1.4014, just above the 1.4000 round number. That break failed: the Democratic sweep knocked the pair about 40 pips lower in the Asia session, retracing roughly 70% of Tuesday's rally to an Asia low at 1.3956, and price now sits below ema20 (~1.3982) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 1.3956, 1.3950, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3982, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3950 week low (range base) exposes the 1.3941 7-week low
Reclaim of ema20 near 1.3982 puts the 1.4000 round number and range top back in play
ADP 13:15 UTC and ISM Services 15:00 UTC today could materially shift this read
Macklem Thu 15:30 UTC and Friday's Canada and US jobs data are the next range tests
1.3941–1.4014 range; Tuesday's rally fully faded, price in lower half.
USDCAD has held a box between Friday's 1.3941 seven-week low and a range top near 1.4014, which rejected price Thursday and again late Tuesday. Tuesday's rally from the 1.3950 week low, starting at the London-NY transition, was unwound in early Asia as the Democratic midterm sweep pulled USD and yields lower. Price dropped back below EMA(20) near 1.3980 to the 78.6% level of the Tue rally fib, with RSI(14) slipping into the high 30s and the Asia low at 1.3956 now just above the week low.
Support: 1.3956, 1.3950, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3980, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3950 week low exposes the 1.3941 7-week low and breaks the higher lows line from Friday
Recovery above EMA(20) at 1.3980 and the 1.4000 psych level returns price to the upper half of the range; the 1.4014 range top has capped twice
ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) today could materially shift this read; firm prints would test the election-driven USD weakness
Macklem Thursday 15:30 UTC and Friday's joint Canada/US jobs reports are the next range-break risks
05:02 UTC
Range-bound, pulling back from range top · RSI 41 · price 1.39705
1.3950–1.4014 range with rising lows from the 1.3941 seven-week low.
Tuesday's London-led rally from the 1.3950 week low ran to the 1.4014 week high late in the NY session, matching Thursday's peak, before early US midterm tallies hit USD and drove a 40-pip drop in the Asia session. Price now sits below EMA(20) near 1.3982 with RSI(14) around 41, after retracing past the 61.8% of Tuesday's rally and finding a floor at the 1.3956 Asia low. The range is intact, with supply capping near the 1.4000 round number and rising lows from the 1.3941 seven-week low still holding.
Support: 1.3956, 1.3950, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3982, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3950 week low breaks the rising lows and exposes the 1.3941 7wk low
Reclaim of EMA20 at 1.3982 puts the 1.4000 round number back in focus; a close above the 1.4014 week high breaks the range
ADP 13:15 UTC and ISM Services 15:00 UTC today could materially shift this read
Senate race calls through Wednesday remain a USD driver; a split-Congress outcome could unwind the Asia drop
1.3950–1.4014 range; failed hold above 1.40, range floor intact.
USD/CAD has held a 1.3950–1.4014 range since Friday's 1.3941 swing low. Demand has stepped in at the 1.3950 week low three times, which marks the range floor. Tuesday's rally from that floor, helped by the JOLTS beat, briefly cleared the 1.4000 round number but stalled at the range top near the 1.4014 week high. Early Asia selling on Democratic-leaning midterm tallies has since retraced about 78.6% of Tuesday's rally, leaving price at the weekly open, below EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 1.3959, 1.3950, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3983, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3950 week low breaks the range floor and exposes the 1.3941 swing low
Recovery above the ema20 near 1.3983 and a hold over the 1.4000 round number would put the range top at the 1.4014 week high back in play
Failure to hold the weekly open at 1.3959 keeps the Tuesday rally retracement extending toward the range floor
ADP (13:15 UTC), ISM Services (15:00 UTC) and remaining Senate calls could materially shift this read
USDCAD remains boxed in a 1.3941–1.4014 range. Tuesday's NY-session rally ran from the 1.3950 week low through the 1.4000 round number to a 1.4014 week high at the range top, but the break failed. Early Asia Wednesday unwound most of the move as midterm tallies showing Democratic gains knocked the dollar lower. Price is now back at the weekly open, below the ema20 near 1.3984 and the EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 39 after retracing more than 78.6% of Tuesday's rally on the fib.
Support: 1.39586, 1.39498, 1.39414
Resistance: 1.39844, 1.4000, 1.40136
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 1.3950 week low exposes the 1.3941 7-week low and the range floor
Recovery above the ema20 near 1.3984 and the 1.4000 round number puts the 1.4014 week high and range top back in play
ADP (13:15 UTC), ISM Services (15:00 UTC) and further midterm calls today could materially shift this read
1.3941–1.4014 range; Tuesday rally rejected at double top.
USDCAD has held a 1.3941–1.4014 range since Thursday, with the range floor near 1.3950 absorbing three tests since Monday's open. Tuesday's NY rally on the JOLTS and factory-orders beats lifted price back through the round number at 1.4000, but it stalled at 1.4014 for a double top with Thursday's high. A roughly 50-pip drop during Asia hours as midterm results landed has reversed most of that move. Price now sits below EMA(20) near 1.3987 and EMA(50), near the 61.8–78.6% retracement of the Tuesday rally, with RSI(14) at 38 and the weekly open at 1.3959 just below.
Support: 1.39586, 1.3950, 1.39414
Resistance: 1.39873, 1.4000, 1.40141
What it said to watch
H1 close back above ema20 near 1.3987 would neutralise the Asia rejection
Sustained trade above the round number 1.4000 and the 1.4014 double top would break the range top
Failure to hold the range floor at 1.3950 and the rising lows exposes the 1.3941 week low (seven-week low)
Midterm Senate calls through Asia/Europe, then ADP 13:15 UTC and ISM Services 15:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Oil swings on Iran headlines remain the main day-to-day CAD driver
01:02 UTC
Range-bound, pulling back from range top · RSI 51 · price 1.39924
4-day range 1.3941–1.4014; double bottom at 1.3950 above the 7-week low.
USD/CAD has spent four days inside a 1.3941–1.4014 range. Monday's and Tuesday's London-session lows both held at 1.3950, forming a double bottom above the 7-week low and lifting the range base. Tuesday's NY-session rally, extended by the JOLTS and factory orders beats, carried price back to the 1.4014 range top, where it met a second rejection late in the session, and the Asia pullback has price sitting on EMA(20) near 1.3992 with RSI(14) easing to ~51 and the 50% fib of the Tuesday rally, alongside EMA(50), at 1.3982 below.
Support: 1.3982, 1.3950, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 50% fib at 1.3982 exposes the 1.3950 double bottom and the rising range base
Failure to hold the 1.3941 7-week low would break the range to the downside
Close above the 1.4014 range top, beyond the 1.4000 round number, breaks the four-day range
US midterm Senate calls through Asia/London could materially shift USD and this range read
ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) on Wednesday are the next scheduled range tests
After a 1.3959 weekly open, both the Monday and Tuesday London sessions sold into 1.3950, setting a double btm above last week's 1.3941 7-week low. The Tuesday rally began in the London-NY transition as strong US data, led by the JOLTS beat, offset the oil-driven CAD bid. It carried price through the 1.3996 neckline, and the late-NY dip retested that level. Price holds above EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 66. Thursday's 1.4014 prior high capped two late-NY probes.
Support: 1.3996, 1.3950, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.4014, 1.4050
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.3996 neckline and the Tuesday rally line would mark a false break of the double btm
Sustained trade above the 1.4014 prior high opens the 1.4050 round number
Loss of the 1.3950 double btm exposes the 1.3941 7-week low
US midterm Senate call overnight, ADP 13:15 UTC and ISM Services 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read