USD/CAD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Wednesday, 4 November 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/CAD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:46 UTC
Intraday rebound, stalling under cap · RSI 54 · price 1.39717
Higher lows pressing into flat 1.3977 cap.
The post-midterm slide bottomed at the 1.3929 day low into the London-NY transition, and the rebound off that low lined up with the ADP beat. Since then the 1.3977 session cap has rejected three NY-hour pushes while higher lows build from the 1.3952 swing low along the rising lows line. Price is now in thin early Asia trade, and the rollover dip to 1.3964 reversed quickly, keeping the 1.3962 higher low intact.
Support: 1.3962, 1.3952, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.3977, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3977 session cap breaks the compression and exposes the 1.4000 round number
Loss of the 1.3962 higher low and the rising lows line shifts focus back to the 1.3952 swing low
Failure at 1.3952 reopens the 1.3929 day low and the post-midterm downside leg
Thu 13:30 UTC Jobless Claims and Macklem at 15:30 UTC are the next scheduled catalysts for this range
23:31 UTC
Recovery from day low, stalling under range cap · RSI 53 · price 1.3972
Higher lows against a flat 1.3977 top since NY open.
USD/CAD has climbed off the 1.3929 day low, set just after the 12:30 UTC Canadian trade beat during the post-midterm USD selloff, printing higher lows through NY, including the 1.3952 NY low, but was rejected twice at the 1.3977 range cap, the same level that topped the Asian range. A post-NY-close dip to the 1.3964 late low reversed in thin trade, and RSI(14) sits mid-range near 53.
Support: 1.3964, 1.3952, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.3977, 1.4000, 1.4012
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3977 range cap opens the 1.4000 round number and the 1.4012 window high
Loss of the rising support line and the 1.3964 late low exposes the 1.3952 NY low
Break back below 1.3952 leaves the 1.3929 day low as the next swing reference
Thu 13:30 UTC US jobless claims and Macklem at 15:30 UTC could materially shift this read
23:16 UTC
Rebound off day low, now ranging · RSI 49 · price 1.39709
1.3960–1.3977 range since 17:00 UTC; higher lows from 1.3929.
London broke below the Asian range and ran to a 1.3929 day low on post-midterm USD selling. The ADP beat sparked a NY rebound to the 1.3977 session high, where price was rejected twice. Since then it has held a 1.3960–1.3977 range, with the range low sitting near the 38.2% fib of the rebound. A thin rollover dip to 1.3964 has already recovered, and RSI(14) is neutral near 49.
Support: 1.39639, 1.3960, 1.39293
Resistance: 1.39775, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3977 session high breaks the range and puts the 1.4000 round number in view
Failure at the 1.3960 range low / 38.2% fib exposes the 50% at 1.3953 and then the 1.3929 day low
A break below the 1.3964 rollover low in thin Asia trade would undercut the late-NY higher low
Thu 13:30 UTC US jobless claims and Macklem at 15:30 UTC could materially shift this read
23:02 UTC
Rebound from day low, stalling under range top · RSI 49 · price 1.39709
Higher lows from 1.3929 capped by flat 1.3977 highs.
Midterm-driven USD selling took USDCAD from 1.4014 to a 1.3929 day low in early NY. The pair has since retraced half that drop, with the 1.3977 range top rejecting three tests from the Asian high through late NY. Swing lows near 1.3962 are holding into thin post-NY trade, and RSI(14) is flat near 49.
Support: 1.39616, 1.39457, 1.39293
Resistance: 1.39775, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3977 range top breaks the cap and opens the 1.4000 round number
Loss of the 1.3962 swing low (38.2% fib) exposes the 1.3946 london low, then the 1.3929 day low
Holding around the 50% fib at 1.3971 keeps the consolidation intact through the Asia session
US jobless claims Thu 13:30 UTC and Macklem Thu 15:30 UTC are the next scheduled risks to this read
22:46 UTC
Recovery uptrend, stalling under NY high · RSI 54 · price 1.39741
Higher lows off 1.3929, flat cap at 1.3977.
Post-midterm USD selling took the pair from the 1.4013 asia high to a 1.3929 day low around the ADP release. Rising lows have formed since, and price is now pinned under the 1.3977 ny high in thin post-NY trade with RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 1.3962, 1.3952, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.3977, 1.4000, 1.4013
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3977 ny high opens the 1.4000 round number
Break below the 1.3962 higher low ends the rising lows chain and exposes the 1.3952 swing low
US claims (Thu 13:30 UTC) and Macklem (Thu 15:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
HL chain from 1.3929 pressing a repeated 1.3976-78 cap.
Midterm-driven USD selling took price from the 1.4014 day high to a 1.3929 day low near the NY open, briefly under the prior 1.3941 low. That false break was reclaimed: NY hours built higher lows back to the 1.3976-78 range cap, which has seen rejection three times since Asia, with thin post-NY trade now sitting just under it.
Support: 1.39616, 1.39534, 1.39293
Resistance: 1.39775, 1.4000, 1.40136
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3978 range cap opens the 1.4000 round number and the 1.4014 day high
Loss of the 1.3962 higher low breaks the rebound chain, with the fib 50% at 1.3953 next
Back below the 1.3929 day low resumes the post-midterm downleg
US claims Thu 13:30 UTC and Macklem at 15:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 1.3929 session low, capped at 1.3977 NY high.
USD/CAD slid from the 1.4014 asian high to a 1.3929 session low on post-midterm USD selling, and the 13:15 UTC ADP beat marked the turn. The NY rebound built a higher-low chain along trendline support, with the 1.3962 higher low holding above the 38.2% of the NY rebound fib. The 1.3977 NY high has now capped twice into the Asia open.
Support: 1.39616, 1.39523, 1.39293
Resistance: 1.39775, 1.4000, 1.40136
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3977 NY high opens the 1.4000 round number
Loss of the 1.3962 higher low breaks the chain and exposes the 1.3952 swing low
Break of the 1.3952 swing low reopens the 1.3929 session low
Thin Asia session ahead; Thu 13:30 UTC US claims and 15:30 UTC Macklem are the next catalysts
22:03 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since NY low · RSI 63 · price 1.39768
HH/HL chain off 1.3929, testing session high.
Post-midterm USD selling took the pair to a 1.3929 day low early in NY hours. It has since rebuilt with higher lows at 1.3952 (ny swing low) and 1.3962 (higher low), and is retesting the 1.3978 session high just under the 61.8% fib of the overnight drop as the session closes. RSI(14) is near 63, firm but not stretched.
Support: 1.3962, 1.3952, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.3978, 1.3981, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3981 61.8% fib and session high opens the 1.4000 round number
Break below the 1.3962 higher low snaps the HL chain and the rising trendline; 1.3952 ny swing low next
Loss of 1.3952 would expose the 1.3929 day low again
Thin Asia session liquidity after the NY close can produce erratic tests of the session high
Thu 13:30 UTC US jobless claims and the 15:30 UTC Macklem speech could materially shift this read
21:46 UTC
Intraday recovery off day low, capped below 1.3978 · RSI 57 · price 1.39712
Higher lows since 1.3929 NY low; flat cap at 1.3975-1.3978.
The post-midterm USD selloff took the pair from the 1.4014 prior high to 1.3956 in Asia. London and early NY extended it to a 1.3929 day low. NY then built higher lows at 1.3952 and 1.3962. The 1.3975-1.3978 session high zone has rejected every test since Asia, and RSI(14) at 57 sits mid-range into the quiet post-NY hours.
Support: 1.39616, 1.39523, 1.39293
Resistance: 1.39775, 1.4000, 1.40136
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.3978 session high breaks the cap and opens the 1.4000 round number
Loss of the 1.3962 swing low and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low chain, exposing 1.3952 and the 1.3929 day low
Thu 13:30 UTC US jobless claims and unit labor costs, then Macklem at 15:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Higher lows since 1.3929, capped under Asian high.
After the midterm-driven USD selling took the pair to a 1.3929 session low before NY, the ADP beat sparked a NY recovery of higher lows back inside the Asian range, but the 1.3977 Asian high capped it twice. Late NY trade is drifting near the 23.6% of the recovery fib, RSI(14) neutral around 50, holding the 1.3961 higher low.
Support: 1.3961, 1.3952, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.3977, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3977 asian high breaks the cap and opens the 1.4000 round number
Failure to hold the 1.3961 higher low exposes the 1.3952 swing low near the 50% of the recovery fib
Break below 1.3952 puts the 1.3929 session low back in play
Thin post-NY trade into Asia; Thu jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and BoC Macklem at 15:30 UTC are the next scheduled risk
Higher highs off 1.3929 capped at 1.3978, now testing the 1.3960 higher low.
USD/CAD bounced from the 1.3929 session low printed just before the NY open. The CAD gains from the midterm-driven USD selling were pared through NY hours, with price building higher highs until it ran into rejection twice at the 1.3975–1.3978 session high. After the NY close, price has slipped back under the ema20 near 1.3966. It is now sitting on the 1.3960 higher low, with RSI(14) neutral around 45.
Support: 1.3960, 1.3953, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.3966, 1.39775
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3960 higher low breaks the rebound's swing sequence and exposes the fib 50% at 1.3953
Reclaim of the ema20 at 1.3966 and a close above the 1.3978 session high would restore the higher-high chain
Loss of 1.3953 shifts focus back to the 1.3929 session low
Thu 13:30 UTC US jobless claims and Macklem at 15:30 UTC could materially shift this read
21:02 UTC
Intraday downtrend, NY rebound now fading · RSI 47 · price 1.39629
Higher-low chain off 1.3929 being tested after rejection at 1.3978.
Midterm-driven USD selling pushed USDCAD from 1.4013 to a 1.3929 session low at the NY open. The ADP beat then sparked a NY rebound that hit rejection at the 1.3978 NY high. Price is fading after the NY close at 1.3963, sitting on the 1.3960 higher low and the 38.2% retrace, roughly level with EMA50, with RSI(14) near 47.
Support: 1.3960, 1.3952, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.3978, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3960 higher low breaks the NY rebound structure and exposes the 1.3952 swing low (50% retrace)
Reclaim of the 1.3978 NY high reopens the 1.4000 round number
Loss of the 1.3929 session low resumes the post-midterm downtrend
US Jobless Claims Thu 13:30 UTC and Macklem Thu 15:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 1.3929 day low, marginal HH at 1.3978 then pullback.
The post-midterm USD slide bottomed at the 1.3929 day low around the 13:15 UTC US data, with the ADP beat triggering a NY rebound of higher lows into a 1.3978 session high. Late NY sees price slipping back under ema20 toward the 1.3960 swing low, which sits on the 38.2% of the rebound fib.
Support: 1.39602, 1.39523, 1.39293
Resistance: 1.39775, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3960 swing low breaks the NY higher-low chain and exposes the 1.3952 higher low, then the 1.3929 day low
Close above the 1.3978 session high reopens the 1.4000 round number
Asia session ahead with thin liquidity; next scheduled USD risk is Thu jobless claims at 13:30 UTC
20:31 UTC
Intraday recovery stalling at range cap · RSI 56 · price 1.39677
Higher lows off 1.3929 day low, capped by the 1.3977 Asian high.
Post-midterm USD selling pushed London below the Asian range to a 1.3929 day low. The ADP beat then drove an NY reclaim, with a higher low at 1.3960 and a 1.3952 higher low near the recovery fib 50%. Late NY has stalled for a third time at the 1.3977 Asian high and is easing toward the 23.6% fib.
Support: 1.3960, 1.3952, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.3977, 1.4000, 1.4013
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3977 Asian high opens the 1.4000 round number and the 1.4013 prior high
Failure to hold the 1.3960 higher low breaks the NY recovery chain and exposes the fib 50% at 1.3952
Loss of the 1.3929 day low resumes the post-midterm decline
US claims Thu 13:30 UTC and BoC Macklem Thu 15:30 UTC could materially shift this read
20:16 UTC
Intraday rebound, stalling late NY · RSI 56 · price 1.39705
Higher lows off 1.3929 day low, capped at 1.3978.
Post-midterm USD selling broke the Asian range and ran to a 1.3929 day low before the ADP beat sparked a NY rebound, building higher lows at 1.3952 and the 1.3960 swing low. Late NY is compressing just under the 1.39775 session high, RSI(14) neutral near 56, with price sitting on the rising trendline from the day low.
Support: 1.3960, 1.3952, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.39775, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3960 swing low breaks the rising trendline and the higher-low chain, exposing 1.3952
Close above the 1.39775 session high opens the path to the 1.4000 round number
Loss of the 1.3952 higher low puts the 1.3929 day low back in play
Thu Jobless Claims (13:30 UTC) and Macklem (15:30 UTC) can reset this read
20:02 UTC
Intraday recovery from day low, momentum flattening · RSI 56 · price 1.39705
Higher lows since 1.3929, capped at 1.3975-78.
Post-midterm USD selling drove USDCAD to a 1.3929 day low in early NY. The recovery since then has printed higher lows at 1.3944, 1.3952 and 1.3960. The 1.3975-78 zone has now capped price three times: the Asian high, the London open high and the late-NY session high. Price is drifting just below that cap with RSI(14) near 56.
Support: 1.39602, 1.39523, 1.39293
Resistance: 1.39775, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3978 session high opens the path to the 1.4000 round number
Break of the 1.3960 swing low ends the higher-low chain and exposes the 1.3952 swing low, the 50% level of the recovery
Loss of 1.3952 brings the 1.3929 day low back into play
Thu 13:30 UTC US claims, then Macklem at 15:30 UTC, could shift the read
19:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend from NY low, momentum moderate · RSI 59 · price 1.39721
Higher-low chain off 1.3929, testing session high.
Midterm-driven USD selling bottomed at the 1.3929 session low early in NY. The ADP beat then started a higher-low chain (1.3944, 1.3952, 1.3960) that has lifted USD/CAD back into the post-drop Asian range, with price now late NY just under the 1.39775 session high and RSI(14) near 59.
Support: 1.3960, 1.3953, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.39775, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.39775 session high opens a path toward the 1.4000 round number
Break of the 1.3960 higher low and the rising trendline shifts the read to a range
Loss of the fib 50% at 1.3953 puts the 1.3929 session low back in play
Oil headlines on US-Iran talks are the main CAD driver until Thu jobless claims and Macklem
HH/HL chain off the 1.3929 NY low, testing the Asia shelf.
Post-midterm USD selling took the pair from the 1.4014 day high to a 1.3929 NY low. The ADP beat marked the turn, and a higher-low chain at 1.3952 and 1.3960 has lifted price back to the 1.3975-1.3977 asia shelf in late NY hours, with RSI(14) near 66 and not stretched.
Support: 1.3960, 1.3952, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.3977, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3977 asia shelf opens the path to the 1.4000 round number and the 1.4014 day high
Break below the 1.3960 higher low, which sits at the 38.2% fib of the ADP rebound, ends the HH/HL chain
Loss of the 1.3952 swing low puts the 1.3929 ny low back in focus
Oil and US-Iran headlines during thin post-NY liquidity could shift this read. Thu US claims and Macklem's speech are the next scheduled catalysts
19:16 UTC
Intraday rebound within a broader down day · RSI 61 · price 1.39717
Higher-low chain off 1.3929, capped below Asian high.
After the midterm-driven USD drop, London broke below the Asian range and extended to a 1.3929 day low. The ADP beat then sparked a NY rebound that has built a higher-low chain at 1.3944, 1.3952 and 1.3960. Late in NY, price is pressing the 50% fib of the 1.4014–1.3929 drop, and supply has capped it twice just under the 1.3976 Asian high; RSI(14) ~61.
Support: 1.3960, 1.3952, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.3976, 1.3981, 1.4000
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.3976 Asian high exposes the 61.8% fib at 1.3981, then the 1.4000 round number
Break of the higher-low trendline and the 1.3960 higher low ends the NY rebound structure
Loss of the 1.3952 swing low reopens the 1.3929 day low
No scheduled data in the next 8h; WTI and US-Iran headlines remain the main CAD driver into the Asia session
19:02 UTC
Intraday rebound, higher lows since NY open · RSI 59 · price 1.39717
HL chain off 1.3929 day low; price pressing session high at 1.3975.
Post-midterm USD selling took the pair from the 1.4014 prior high to a 1.3929 day low just before the NY open. NY hours have since printed higher lows along a rising trendline, and price now sits at the 50% retrace of that decline. The session high at 1.3975, also the top of the Asian consolidation, has capped two late-NY probes.
Support: 1.3960, 1.3952, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.3975, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.3975 session high opens 1.4000 round number and the 1.4014 prior high
Break of the 1.3960 swing low and the rising trendline puts the 1.3952 higher low and 1.3929 day low back in focus
Thin liquidity after London close keeps the 1.3975 break prone to fading
Thu US claims and Macklem speech can shift the CAD read beyond this session
18:46 UTC
Rebound off session low, now stalling · RSI 56 · price 1.39671
Higher lows since the 1.3929 session low; compressing in a 1.3960–1.3975 band.
Post-midterm USD selling pushed USDCAD through the Asian low to a 1.3929 session low just before the NY open. NY then reclaimed the Asian range with higher lows at 1.3944 and 1.3952 (the 50% fib), but saw rejection at the 1.3975 NY high just under the 1.3977 Asian high. Price has since compressed between the 1.3960 band floor and 1.3975 late in NY, with RSI(14) neutral near 56.
Support: 1.39602, 1.39523, 1.39293
Resistance: 1.39754, 1.39769, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3975 NY high and 1.3977 Asian high opens the 1.4000 round number
Break of the 1.3960 band floor exposes the 1.3952 higher low at the 50% fib
Loss of 1.3952 puts the 1.3929 session low back in focus
Thin late-NY and Asia liquidity ahead; Thu US claims (13:30 UTC) and Macklem (15:30 UTC) are the next scheduled risk
18:31 UTC
Intraday recovery off session low, stalling below cap · RSI 54 · price 1.39624
Higher lows from 1.3929, capped at 1.3975 three times, tight late-NY compression.
Post-midterm USD selling broke the Asian range low and drove USDCAD to a 1.3929 session low. NY hours rebuilt higher lows at 1.3944 and 1.3952, but the 1.3975 triple cap rejected again at 17:00 UTC. Price is now compressing at 1.3960–1.3967 near EMA20 and above the 38.2% fib of the rally, with RSI(14) neutral at 54.
Support: 1.3960, 1.3952, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.3975, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3975 triple cap opens the path to the 1.4000 round number
Loss of the 1.3960 late-NY low exposes the 1.3952 higher low; a break there undoes the recovery structure toward the 1.3929 session low
A drop below the 38.2% fib at ~1.3958 would mark the rally as fading
No scheduled data before Asia; Thu 13:30 UTC US claims and 15:30 UTC Macklem are the next catalysts
18:16 UTC
Recovery off London low, stalling at Asian high · RSI 54 · price 1.39626
NY higher-low chain from 1.3929, capped at 1.3976.
Post-midterm USD selling broke the Asian range during London, printing a 1.3929 London low. NY rebuilt a higher-low chain back to the 1.3976 Asian high, where the 17:15 UTC bar was rejected. After London close, price is resting on the rising trendline near the 1.3960 higher low.
Support: 1.3960, 1.3952, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.3976, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3960 higher low breaks the trendline and exposes the fib 50% at 1.3952
Close above the 1.3976 Asian high opens the path to the 1.4000 round number
Failure to hold the 1.3929 London low resumes the session's lower-low sequence
18:02 UTC
Intraday rebound within a broader down day, momentum flattening · RSI 54 · price 1.39626
NY higher-low chain off 1.3929 session low, capped at 1.3975 NY high.
USD selling after the Democratic midterm win broke the pair off 1.4000 early in Asia, and London extended it to a 1.3929 session low. NY then built higher lows (1.3944, 1.3952) through the mixed ISM print. The 17:00 UTC rejection at the 1.3975 NY high, just under the Asian range top, has left price compressing near 1.3963, holding above the 38.2% fib of the NY rebound at 1.3958.
Support: 1.39578, 1.39523, 1.39293
Resistance: 1.39754, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.3975 NY high clears the Asian range top and reopens the 1.4000 round number
Break below the 1.3952 higher low ends the NY higher-lows sequence and exposes the 1.3929 session low
Thu 13:30 UTC US jobless claims and Macklem at 15:30 UTC could reset the intraday structure
WTI swings on US-Iran headlines remain a live CAD driver
Midterm-driven USD selling took the pair from 1.4013 to 1.3956 in the Asia session. London broke the Asian range low, and NY pushed to a 1.3929 session low before a false break back inside the range. After London close the rebound met rejection at the 1.3975 Asian high, and price is holding above the 1.3952 higher low with RSI(14) near 56.
Support: 1.3952, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.3975, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.3975 asia high reclaims the Asian range top and opens the 1.4000 round number
Break of the 1.3952 higher low (50% of the NY rebound) undercuts the recovery structure, with the 1.3929 session low next
A move back below the higher low line breaks the NY rebound sequence
US jobless claims Thu 13:30 UTC and Macklem Thu 15:30 UTC are the next scheduled risks to this read
NY higher-low chain pressing the Asian range high.
Post-midterm USD selling drove a slide to a 1.3929 session low ahead of the NY open. Since then the NY session has built higher lows along a rising trendline at 1.3944 and 1.3952 and absorbed the ISM Services miss. Price is now testing the 1.3976 Asian high near the 50% retracement of the overnight decline, with RSI(14) around 66.
Support: 1.3970, 1.3952, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.3976, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3976 Asian high clears the Asian range and opens the path to 1.4000 psych and the 1.4014 overnight high
Rejection at 1.3976 and a slip back under the 1.3970 prior high returns focus to the 1.3952 higher low
Break of the 1.3952 higher low and the NY rising trendline ends the rebound structure and brings the 1.3929 session low back into view
No scheduled data in the next 8h; Macklem's speech Thu 15:30 UTC is the next CAD-side event that could shift this read
17:02 UTC
Intraday rebound, higher highs off NY low · RSI 66 · price 1.39734
HH/HL chain since 1.3929, testing Asian range top.
Post-midterm USD selling broke the Asian range low in London and printed a session low at 1.3929 into the NY open. NY has since rebuilt a higher-high/higher-low chain off that low, RSI(14) near 66, with price now retesting the 1.3977 Asian high.
Support: 1.3952, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.3977, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.3977 Asian high puts the 1.4000 psych level back in view
Break below the 1.3952 higher low ends the NY rebound sequence; the 1.3929 session low comes back into play
WTI and US-Iran headlines can move CAD outside data hours; Thu claims (13:30 UTC) and Macklem (15:30 UTC) are the next scheduled risks
Higher lows off 1.3929 day low, capped at 1.3970 back inside Asian range.
Post-midterm USD selling ran USDCAD from 1.4014 to a 1.3929 day low into the London-NY transition. The NY rebound reclaimed the Asian range but met rejection at the 1.3970 NY high, just under the 50% retrace of the decline. Higher lows at 1.3944 and 1.3952 keep the recovery leg intact, with RSI(14) near 56.
Support: 1.3952, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.3970, 1.3977
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3970 NY high exposes the 1.3977 Asian high and the 50% retrace
Break of the 1.3952 higher low undermines the NY rebound and puts the 1.3929 day low back in play
No scheduled releases in the next 8h. Thu US jobless claims (13:30 UTC) and Macklem (15:30 UTC) are the next event risks, with oil headlines in between
USDCAD slid from 1.4014 in Asia on the Democratic midterm sweep. London pushed below the Asian low to 1.3929 before NY reclaimed it after the US data, building higher lows at 1.3944 and 1.3952. The 1.3970 ny high capped the bounce at the 50% retrace of that decline. Price sits back at the 38.2% level near 1.3962, RSI(14) 57, just above both EMAs.
Support: 1.39523, 1.39435, 1.39293
Resistance: 1.39699, 1.39759, 1.4000
What it said to watch
Break of the 1.3952 higher low ends the NY higher-low chain and exposes the 1.3944 ny swing low
M15 close above the 1.3970 ny high and 50% retrace brings the 1.3976 asian high and 1.4000 round number into view
Loss of the 1.3929 london low would put price back in the overnight decline
No scheduled events in the next 8h; WTI and post-midterm USD headlines are the swing factors, then Macklem Thu 15:30 UTC
16:16 UTC
Downtrend, NY bounce fading · RSI 53 · price 1.39545
Lower highs and lows intact; NY bounce capped at 1.3970.
Post-midterm USD selling in Asia knocked the pair off 1.4005, and London extended to a 1.3929 session low through the prior seven-week low. NY bounced to a 1.3970 high around the ISM Services print but was rejected. Price is back near 1.3954, the 38.2% retrace of the NY bounce, with RSI(14) at a neutral 53.
Support: 1.39458, 1.39293, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.39699, 1.39758
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3970 ny high would end the lower-high sequence and bring the 1.3976 london high into play
Loss of the 1.3946 london low exposes the 1.3929 session low, then the 1.3900 psych level
BoC's Macklem (Thu 15:30 UTC) and Fri NFP/LFS could materially shift this read
16:02 UTC
Downtrend, NY bounce stalling · RSI 55 · price 1.39545
Lower highs from 1.4014; NY bounce off 1.3929 rejected at 1.3970.
Post-midterm USD selling knocked USDCAD off the 1.4000 round number early in Asia, and London-NY pressed on to a 1.3929 session low. The NY bounce faded at the 1.3970 NY high after the ISM Services miss, leaving price near the 38.2% of the bounce fib with RSI(14) around 55 and price hugging EMA20.
Support: 1.3944, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.3970, 1.3976, 1.4000
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.3944 pivot low (61.8% of the bounce fib) exposes the 1.3929 session low.
A hold above the 1.3970 NY high reopens the 1.3976 Asian high and the lower-high sequence comes into question.
Thu US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Macklem at 15:30 UTC could materially shift this read.
15:46 UTC
Downtrend, NY rebound in progress · RSI 61 · price 1.39686
Higher lows off 1.3929 low; back inside Asian range.
London extended the post-midterm USD drop below the 1.3955 Asian low to a 1.3929 session low. NY reversed it on a chain of rising lows despite the ISM Services miss, putting price back inside the Asian range and against the 50% fib of the 1.4014–1.3929 decline at 1.3972, just under the 1.3977 Asian high.
Support: 1.3955, 1.3949, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.3972, 1.3977, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3977 asian high clears the Asian range and opens the 1.4000 round number
Break of the NY rising lows near 1.3949 and a close back below the 1.3955 asian low revives the session low at 1.3929
Rejection at the 50% fib at 1.3972 keeps the decline structure intact
London close at 16:00 UTC may thin follow-through; WTI and US-Iran headlines remain the main CAD swing factor
BoC Macklem (Thu 15:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
15:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, NY rebound in progress · RSI 56 · price 1.39628
Higher lows off 1.3929 day low, testing london high.
Post-midterm USD selling drove USD/CAD to a 1.3929 day low in the London-NY transition, briefly through the 1.3941 seven-week low before NY reclaimed it. The rebound has printed higher lows at 1.3943 and 1.3949 and is now pressing the 1.3966 london high, close to a full retrace of the London-NY drop fib, with RSI(14) near 56.
Support: 1.3949, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.3966, 1.3977
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.3966 london high opens the 1.3977 asian high
Loss of the 1.3949 higher low breaks the NY rising trendline and exposes the 1.3929 day low
Oil and US-Iran headlines are the main CAD swing factor into the London close
Lower highs since London open; higher low at 1.3943 off the 1.3929 session low.
Post-midterm USD selling broke the Asian range low at 1.3956 and London extended it to a 1.3929 session low. The ADP beat sparked a bounce that is now pressing the falling trendline and the 61.8% fib near 1.3952, with the bounce high at 1.3958 capping so far.
Support: 1.3943, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.3958, 1.3966, 1.3976
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3958 bounce high breaks the falling trendline and opens the 1.3966 swing high, then the 1.3976 london high
Failure to hold the 1.3943 higher low puts the 1.3929 session low back in play
The ISM Services miss (54.5 vs 54.8) is printing in the current bar and could break the 1.3943–1.3958 band either way
Lower highs since London open; NY higher low at 1.3943 under the 1.3957 cap.
Post-midterm USD selling broke the Asian low at 1.3956 at the London open. It carried price to a 1.3929 session low, under the London high at 1.3976. NY has bounced about 28 pips into 1.3957, where the Asian low, the 61.8% fib of the London leg and the London trendline converge. RSI(14) is near 47 and price is sitting on EMA20.
Support: 1.3943, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.3957, 1.3966, 1.3976
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.3966 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 1.3976 London high back in view.
Losing the 1.3943 higher low reopens the 1.3929 session low.
ISM Services at 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.8) lands on the current bar and could materially shift this read.
Lower highs since London open; bounce from session low stalling at broken Asian low.
The post-midterm USD selloff cut through 1.4000 in Asia. London broke the 1.3956 Asian low and extended to a 1.3929 session low, then beats in US ADP and trade data lifted price about 26 pips into the NY open. That rebound is stalling at 1.3955, where the broken Asian low, the 61.8% fib of the 1.3966 drop and the falling trendline from the London high converge. RSI(14) sits near 47, with price above EMA20 but below EMA50.
Support: 1.3946, 1.3929, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.3955, 1.3966, 1.3976
What it said to watch
S&P Global PMI at 14:45 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
An M15 close above the 1.3966 lower high breaks the London lower-high chain and exposes the 1.3976 london high
Rejection at the 1.3955 asian low followed by a break of the 1.3946 swing low puts the 1.3929 session low back in play
Failure to hold 1.3929 exposes the 1.3900 round number
Lower-high chain from London open; rebound off 1.3929 session low pressing the trendline.
Post-midterm USD selling broke USD/CAD below 1.4000 in Asia. London extended the lower-highs sequence to a 1.3929 session low. A 25-pip bounce into NY, alongside the ADP beat, has reclaimed the 1.3946 london low and pushed past the 61.8% retrace of the late-London drop into the lower-highs trendline near 1.3958, with RSI(14) back to neutral 48.
Support: 1.3946, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.3966, 1.3977
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3966 lower high breaks the lower-highs chain, with the 1.3977 asian high next
Slip back below the 1.3946 london low reopens the 1.3929 session low
US S&P PMI 14:45 UTC and ISM Services 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.8) could materially shift this read
14:16 UTC
Downtrend, early-NY bounce off the low · RSI 44 · price 1.39488
Lower highs since Asia; double bottom at 1.3929, bounce retesting the 1.3950 breakdown shelf.
The post-midterm USD selloff carried USDCAD through London on a run of lower highs from the 1.3976 London open high. Price then set a double bottom at 1.3929 early in the NY session. The bounce is now testing 1.3950, the 50–61.8% fib of the 1.3966 London high-to-low leg, with RSI(14) near 44 and price sitting on EMA20.
Support: 1.3929, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.3951, 1.3966, 1.3976
What it said to watch
S&P PMI at 14:45 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Rejection at the 1.3951 bounce high keeps the London lower-high sequence intact
An M15 close above the 1.3966 London high breaks the lower-high trendline structure
Loss of the 1.3929 double bottom reopens the 1.3900 round number
Lower highs and lows since Asia; false break of 1.3941 reclaimed.
The post-midterm USD slide extended through London, briefly breaking the 1.3941 7-wk low to a 1.3929 session low before the ADP beat lifted price back to a 1.3951 rebound high early in NY hours. Price is now near the 50% fib of the drop from the 1.3966 swing high, testing EMA20 from just below with RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 1.3941, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.3951, 1.3966, 1.3977
What it said to watch
S&P Global PMI at 14:45 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
An M15 close above the 1.3951 rebound high and the descending highs line puts the 1.3966 swing high in play, with the 1.3977 asian high above
A move back below the 1.3941 7-wk low turns the reclaim into a failed bounce and reopens the 1.3929 session low
LH/LL chain from 1.4014; NY extended London breakdown below 1.3946.
Lower highs and lower lows have run since the post-election drop from 1.4014. USD weakness carried NY through the 1.3946 London low and the 1.3941 seven-week low to a 1.3929 session low. The 13:15 UTC ADP release produced only an 8-pip bar, price is holding just above the session low and RSI(14) is near 33.
Support: 1.3929, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.3946, 1.3966
What it said to watch
A close back above the 1.3946 London low, near the 38.2% fib of the 1.3966 swing high to 1.3929 leg, would mark the breakdown as a false break
Failure to hold the 1.3929 session low extends the lower-low sequence, with the 1.3900 round number next
Lower-highs trendline from the 07:00 UTC high caps near 1.3960, and a break above it plus the 1.3966 swing high would end the LH chain
S&P Global PMI at 14:45 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower-high/lower-low chain since 1.4013; 1.3941 broken, small bounce off 1.3929.
The Democratic midterm sweep knocked the pair from 1.4013 to 1.3956 during Asia. London broke the Asian range low and printed lower highs, and the pre-NY slide cut through the 1.3941 7wk low to a 1.3929 session low. The ADP bar is bouncing modestly, with RSI(14) near 36 and well clear of oversold.
Support: 1.3929, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.3941, 1.3966
What it said to watch
Close back above the 1.3941 7wk low turns the break into a false break
Descending trendline from 1.3976 via the 1.3966 swing high caps the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 1.3929 session low exposes the 1.3900 round number
ADP reaction plus ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
13:16 UTC
Downtrend, extending into the London-NY transition · RSI 31 · price 1.39341
Lower-high/lower-low chain; fresh break below the London low.
The post-midterm USD unwind is still driving the pair. It broke the 1.3946 London low and the 1.3941 seven-week low to print a 1.3929 session low into the London-NY transition, with the lower-high trendline from 1.3976 and 1.3966 still capping. RSI(14) is near 31, soft but not oversold. The 1.3943–1.3952 fib zone of the 1.3966–1.3929 leg overlaps the broken london low.
Support: 1.3929, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.3946, 1.3966
What it said to watch
ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
M15 close back above 1.3946 london low turns the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.3929 session low exposes the 1.3900 round number
Close above the 1.3966 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline structure
13:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend, extending into NY open · RSI 32 · price 1.39341
Lower highs / lower lows, Asian range broken lower, 7-week low taken out.
USD selling on the Democratic sweep set a lower-high/lower-low chain from the Asia open. London broke the 1.3956 Asian range low, and the London-NY transition pushed through the 1.3941 7-week low to a 1.3929 session low. RSI(14) sits near 32, soft but not oversold, and price is below both EMAs.
Support: 1.3929, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.3941, 1.3952, 1.3966
What it said to watch
ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
An M15 close back above the 1.3941 7-week low would mark the break as a false break, with fib 61.8 at 1.3952 next above
The lower-high trendline near 1.3961 and the 1.3966 lower high cap the LH/LL chain; a close above invalidates it
Failure to hold the 1.3929 session low exposes the 1.3900 round number, flagged in the digest as the wedge bottom
Lower highs and lower lows since the London-open range break; fresh session low at 1.3944.
USD/CAD broke below the 1.3956–1.3976 Asian range at London open and has held a lower-high sequence since. It is now printing a session low at 1.3944, just above the 1.3941 7-week low, as USD selling on the Democratic sweep persists. RSI(14) sits near 35, not yet stretched.
Support: 1.3941, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.3966, 1.3976
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.3941 7-week low extends the lower-low chain and opens the path to the 1.3900 round number
A close above the 1.3966 swing high breaks the lower-high trendline and neutralises the sequence
ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) could materially shift this read; a beat risks a squeeze back toward the 1.3976 range top
Lower highs 1.3976 → 1.3966; price drifting back toward the 1.3946 session low.
The Democrats' Congress sweep knocked USDCAD from 1.3996 to 1.3956 at 01:00 UTC. Asia then held a tight range under the 1.3976 Asian high. London broke lower to a 1.3946 session low, and the bounce stalled at 1.3966, about 67% of the London leg on the fib. Late in London, price is back at 1.3952 below both EMAs, a few pips above the 1.3941 7wk low.
Support: 1.3946, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3966, 1.3976, 1.4000
What it said to watch
ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Break of the 1.3946 session low exposes the 1.3941 7wk low
M15 close above the 1.3966 bounce high breaks the lower-high trendline
Reclaim of the 1.3976 Asian high reopens the 1.4000 round number
Lower highs since the Asia drop; tight 1.3946–1.3966 consolidation.
USD/CAD dropped about 40 pips from 1.4013 around 01:00 UTC as US midterm results and lower yields hit the dollar. London then broke the 1.3957 Asian low and set a session low at 1.3946 before stalling. Price is consolidating 1.3946–1.3966 under a line of lower highs into the London-NY transition, with RSI(14) neutral near 47 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 1.39458, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3966, 1.39769, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3966 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain; the 1.3977 asia ceiling sits next above
Recovery through the asia ceiling reopens the 1.4000 round number
Failure to hold the 1.3946 session low exposes the 1.3941 7wk low
US ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.4013 late-NY high; Asian low broken in London.
The US midterm USD selloff in early Asia broke USDCAD from 1.4013 into a lower-high chain. London extended below the Asian low to a 1.3946 session low, then stalled at a 1.3966 lower high, about 30% of the election drop fib. Price is back near 1.3956 into late London, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) neutral near 47.
Support: 1.3946, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3966, 1.3976, 1.4000
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.3946 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3941 7-week low
A close above the 1.3966 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline; through the 1.3976 Asian high, the 1.4000 round number comes back into view
ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
11:46 UTC
Downtrend, bounce stalling in late London · RSI 50 · price 1.39598
Lower highs from 1.4014; London broke Asian range low, now retesting it.
The Democratic midterm sweep and lower US yields knocked the pair off 1.4014 overnight, and London extended below the asian low to a session low at 1.3946. The rebound stalled at the 1.3966 bounce high near the 23.6% fib and under the lower-high trendline; price is now sitting on the 1.3956 asian low with RSI(14) flat near 50.
Support: 1.3956, 1.3946, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3966, 1.3977, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.3977 asian high breaks the lower-high trendline and invalidates the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 1.3946 session low exposes the 1.3941 7-week low
Acceptance back below the 1.3956 asian low marks the retest as failed
US ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read; a beat could carry price back toward the 1.4000 round number
11:31 UTC
Rebounding off London low, below EMA50 · RSI 52 · price 1.39629
Higher lows off 1.3946, back inside 1.3956–1.3976 range.
USD slid at 01:00 UTC on the Democratic sweep, and the 1.3956–1.3976 range that followed broke lower in London to 1.3946 (london low). A chain of higher lows has since reclaimed the asian low and tagged the fib 61.8 retracement of the London drop at 1.3966, with RSI(14) neutral near 52 and price above EMA20 but below EMA50.
Support: 1.3956, 1.3946, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3966, 1.3976, 1.4000
What it said to watch
Close above 1.3976 range top turns the London break into a completed false break and brings the 1.4000 round number into view
Rejection at the fib 61.8 (1.3966) and a loss of the higher lows line re-expose 1.3956 asian low
Close back below 1.3946 london low opens the 1.3941 7-week low
US ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
11:16 UTC
Downtrend, London low bounce · RSI 52 · price 1.39592
Lower highs since 1.4014; Asian low reclaimed.
The post-midterm USD selloff took USDCAD from 1.4014 into a 1.3956–1.3977 Asian range. London broke the Asian low and printed a session low at 1.3946, just above the 1.3941 7-week low. The pair has since reclaimed 1.3956 and sits near the 50% retrace of the London leg, with the 1.3964 lower high overhead, price hugging EMA20 and RSI(14) neutral near 52.
Support: 1.39561, 1.39458, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.39641, 1.39758
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.3956 asian low reopens the 1.3946 session low and 1.3941 7-week low
M15 close above the 1.3964 lower high (61.8% of the London leg) breaks the lower-high sequence toward the 1.3976 asian high
US ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the Asia high; London printed a lower low, bounce now testing trendline.
The US midterm result knocked USD/CAD from the 1.4013 Asia high to 1.3956 early in the Asian session. London then broke the Asian range low and the 1.3953 shelf, setting a 1.3946 session low before a bounce to the 1.3960 bounce high. That high sits on the 50% fib of the London leg and the descending London trendline, with RSI(14) back to neutral 52.
Support: 1.3953, 1.39458, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.39605, 1.39643, 1.39758
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3960 bounce high and trendline opens the fib 61.8 at 1.3964, then the 1.3976 london high
Loss of the 1.3953 shelf puts the 1.3946 session low and the 1.3941 7-week low back in play
US ADP 13:15 UTC and ISM Services 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
10:46 UTC
Downtrend, small bounce off the session low · RSI 41 · price 1.39565
Lower highs and lower lows since London open, retesting the broken Asian low.
The midterm drop took USD/CAD down from 1.4014 to the low 1.395s in Asia as US midterm results hit the dollar. London then broke the Asian low near 1.3956 and printed a session low at 1.3946. Price is back at that broken 1.3956 level from below, RSI(14) near 41, with the descending trendline from the London open capping at the 1.3961 lower high.
Support: 1.3946, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3961, 1.3976
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3961 lower high breaks the descending trendline and opens the 1.3976 asian high
Failure to hold the 1.3946 session low exposes the 1.3941 sep low
ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
10:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 30 · price 1.39489
Asian range broken lower, lower-high chain into session low.
The election drop from 1.4014 came as USD was offered on the Democratic sweep. It left a 1.3956–1.3976 Asian range, and London broke the asian low before grinding lower highs into a 1.3946 session low. RSI(14) is near 30, with price sitting just above the 1.3941 7-week low.
Support: 1.39458, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.39557, 1.39758
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the asian low at 1.3956 and the lower-highs trendline weakens the London breakdown read
Failure to hold the 1.3946 session low exposes the 1.3941 7-week low
Reclaim of the 1.3976 asian high would neutralise the post-election leg lower
ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower at London open, price at a fresh session low.
The US election result hit USD and drove the overnight drop from 1.4014 to the 1.3956 asian low. Price then held a 1.3956–1.3977 Asian range until the London open rejected the asian high and broke lower. Mid-London, price is pressing a 1.3949 session low just above the 1.3941 7-week low, with RSI(14) near 30 and the lower-highs line still capping.
Support: 1.39488, 1.3941, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.39561, 1.39769, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.3956 asian low puts price back inside the Asian range and weakens the range break read
Failure to hold the 1.3941 7-week low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.3900 round number
Close above the lower-highs trendline (~1.3961) breaks the descending sequence; 38.2% of the overnight drop sits near the asian high
ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read during NY hours
10:03 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower in London · RSI 35 · price 1.39496
Lower highs since London open; Asian range broken to the downside.
The US midterm-driven USD selloff took the pair from 1.4013 at the Asia open into a 1.3956–1.3977 Asian range. London broke the asian low and has stepped down in a chain of lower highs to 1.3949, retesting yesterday's prior low. RSI(14) sits near 35, not stretched, with the 1.3941 sep low just beneath.
Support: 1.3949, 1.3941, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.3956, 1.3977
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.3949 prior low opens the 1.3941 sep low (7-week low)
A break of 1.3941 leaves the 1.3900 round number as the next reference
An M15 close back above the 1.3956 asian low negates the range break and the lower highs line
US ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read; a beat risks a squeeze back toward the 1.3977 asian high
Asian range broken lower in London, testing prior-day low.
USD/CAD has extended the slide from the 1.4014 overnight high as the Democratic sweep weighs on US yields. London broke the 1.3956–1.3976 Asian range lower and is now sitting on yesterday's 1.3950 prior low, with lower highs at 1.3976 and 1.3962 capping each bounce and RSI(14) near 32.
Support: 1.3950, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3956, 1.39615, 1.3976
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.3950 prior low opens the 1.3941 Sep low
A recovery above the 1.3962 lower high and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the Asian low back inside the range
Regaining the 1.3976 Asian high, near the 38.2% of the drop fib, neutralises the overnight leg
US ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.4014; London broke Asian low, now basing 1.3953-1.3962.
Post-midterm USD selling knocked USD/CAD off the 1.4014 swing high in Asia. London then broke the 1.3956 Asian low and set a 1.3953 london low just above yesterday's 1.3950 prior low. Since then price has compressed under a 1.3962 lower high, with RSI(14) near 39 and ATR(14) about 7 pips.
Support: 1.3953, 1.3950, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3962, 1.3976, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.3950 prior low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.3941 7wk low
Reclaim of the 1.3962 lower high, then 1.3976 asian high (38.2% of the drop retrace), challenges the downtrend read
Lower highs trendline from 1.4014 caps rallies; a break above it opens the 1.4000 round number
US ADP 13:15 UTC and ISM Services 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
09:02 UTC
Downtrend, stalling at London low · RSI 40 · price 1.39564
Lower highs since London open, base forming near 1.3953.
Midterm-driven USD selling at 01:00 UTC knocked the pair from above the 1.4000 round number to 1.3956. Asia then ranged up to the 1.3976 Asian high. London open rejected that high and broke the Asian range low, with the London low at 1.3953 tested three times on a chain of lower highs, the latest at 1.3964.
Support: 1.3953, 1.3950, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3964, 1.3976, 1.4000
What it said to watch
Close back above the 1.3976 Asian high would neutralise the London range break
Failure to hold the 1.3953 London low and the 1.3950 prior low exposes the 1.3941 7-week low
Clearing the 1.3964 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline from London open
ADP 13:15 UTC and ISM Services 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read via US yields
Lower highs below the Asian high; London broke the Asian range low.
The Democratic sweep knocked USD/CAD off the 1.4014 overnight high in early Asia, retracing about 85% of yesterday's rally. The Asian high at 1.3976 capped three times before a rejection at London open. The slide then broke the Asian range low to a 1.3953 London low, and price is pinned there with RSI(14) near 36 and the 1.3950 prior-day low just below.
Support: 1.3953, 1.3950, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3964, 1.3976, 1.4000
What it said to watch
A break and hold below the 1.3950 prior-day low exposes the 1.3941 7-week low
A turn lower from the 1.3964 bounce high keeps the lower-high sequence intact
Recovery above the 1.3976 Asian high negates the London range break
ADP 13:15 UTC and ISM Services 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read. Firm prints would put the 1.4000 round number back in view
08:31 UTC
Down from overnight high, now ranging · RSI 40 · price 1.39591
Tight 1.3953–1.3976 range after Asia selloff; flat highs, lows probed.
Asia slid from the 1.4014 overnight high to 1.3956 as the Democratic midterm sweep knocked US yields, then chopped in a 1.3956–1.3976 band. London open was rejected at the asia high, which sits on the 38.2% fib. The dip that followed set a 1.3953 london low just above Tuesday's 1.3950 prior low, with no M15 close below the range yet; RSI(14) is near 40.
Support: 1.3953, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3976, 1.4000
What it said to watch
An M15 close below 1.3950 prior low breaks the range and extends the lower-low sequence.
Recovery above the 1.3976 asia high / 38.2% fib reopens the 1.4000 round number.
US ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read.
08:16 UTC
Down off the 1.4014 high, now ranging · RSI 43 · price 1.39591
Lower highs from 1.4014, then a flat 1.3953–1.3976 range; range floor swept pre-London.
USDCAD rolled over from the 1.4014 prior high, capped below the 1.4000 round number. The Asia selloff followed the US yield slide after the Democratic sweep, and price has since compressed into a 1.3953–1.3976 range, with three tests of the range top. The pre-London dip swept the range floor to a 1.3953 session low and closed back inside, just above yesterday's 1.3950 prior low, with RSI(14) neutral near 43.
Support: 1.39531, 1.39498, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3976, 1.4000, 1.40136
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.3950 prior low turns the sweep into a range break toward the 1.3941 7wk low
Recovery above the 1.3976 range top reopens the 1.4000 round number and the 1.4014 prior high
ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Price is holding below the 38.2% retracement of the selloff fib, so the overnight move stays intact
1.3956–1.3976 Asian range, London open probing below.
The Democratic Congress sweep knocked USD/CAD off the 1.4014 swing high to 1.3956 in early Asia, and price then held a tight 1.3956–1.3976 range with the range top capping three times; the 38.2% of the election drop fib sits right on that range top. London open swept the Asian low to a 1.3953 london low and bounced, with the prior low from yesterday's London session at 1.3950 just beneath.
Support: 1.3953, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3976, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3950 prior low extends the post-election leg lower
Reclaim of the 1.3976 range top and drop fib 38.2% invalidates the range-low pressure read
Failure to hold 1.3953 london low turns the sweep into a clean range break
ADP 13:15 UTC and ISM Services 15:00 UTC could reprice USD and break the range either way; 1.4000 round number caps above
20-pip Asian range 1.3956–1.3976 below the 1.4000 breakdown.
USD/CAD shed nearly 58 pips in early Asia as the Democratic sweep and softer US yields hit the dollar, falling from 1.4014 to the 1.3956 asian low. Since then it has held a tight 1.3956–1.3976 range. The London open probed the asian high, near the 38.2% fib of the Asia drop, and was rejected back to the range middle.
Support: 1.3956, 1.3950, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3976, 1.3997
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3956 asian low opens yesterday's 1.3950 prior low and the 1.3941 7-week low
M15 close above the 1.3976 asian high and the 38.2% fib exposes the 1.3997 breakdown point under 1.4000
ADP 13:15 UTC and ISM Services 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia sold off from the 1.4014 overnight high to the 1.3956 asia low as Democratic midterm gains hit USD and yields. Since then price has held a 1.3956–1.3977 range, with dips into the 1.3961 range floor bought twice. Early London is pressing the asia high, which lines up with the 38.2% retracement of the drop. RSI(14) is neutral near 54.
Support: 1.3961, 1.3956, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3977, 1.3985, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3977 asia high opens the fib 50% at 1.3985, then the 1.4000 psych level
Loss of the 1.3961 range floor and the 1.3956 asia low exposes yesterday's 1.3950 prior low
US ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range 1.3956–1.3977 after a 58-pip drop from the prior high.
USD/CAD turned from the 1.4014 prior high early in Asia as the Democratic sweep knocked USD, falling to the 1.3956 Asian low by 01:30 UTC. Since then a 1.3956–1.3977 Asian range has held, with the Asian high capped near the 38.2% fib of the selloff and a 1.3961 higher low forming as London open approaches.
Support: 1.3961, 1.3956, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3977, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.3977 Asian high and 38.2% fib breaks the range, exposing the 1.4000 round number and 1.4014 prior high
Failure to hold the 1.3961 higher low and 1.3956 Asian low puts the 1.3950 prior low and the 1.3941 seven-week low in play
US ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
07:01 UTC
Down-leg in Asia, now basing sideways · RSI 52 · price 1.3969
Tight 1.3956–1.3977 range after Asia drop, flat lows, capped highs.
USD selling on the Democratic sweep knocked the pair off the 1.4014 prior high to the 1.3956 asian low in early Asia, erasing Tuesday's NY gains. Since then it has held a 1.3956–1.3977 range, with the range top at the 38.2% of the Asia drop fib and the 1.3961 swing low holding twice. Price sits mid-range into the London open.
Support: 1.3961, 1.3956, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3977, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.3956 asian low exposes the 1.3950 prior low and the 1.3941 seven-week low
Close above the 1.3977 range top / 38.2% fib reopens the 1.4000 round number and the 1.4014 prior high
Loss of the 1.3961 swing low during London would leave the range base exposed
ADP 13:15 UTC and ISM Services 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
06:46 UTC
Post-selloff, sideways in range · RSI 53 · price 1.39709
Sharp lower-high leg, then tight Asian range.
USD/CAD fell from the 1.4014 swing high to 1.3956 as US midterm results knocked the dollar overnight. It has since held a 1.3956–1.3977 range through the Asia session, with the range top capping at the 38.2% retracement. Price sits mid-range near 1.3971 into London open and RSI(14) is neutral near 53.
Support: 1.3956, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3977, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3977 range top and 38.2% retracement opens the 1.4000 psych level
Failure to hold the 1.3956 range low exposes yesterday's 1.3950 prior low
London open could break the Asian range in either direction
US ADP at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read; a firm print risks a run back toward the 1.4014 swing high
The 01:00 UTC USD selloff on the Democrat midterm sweep reversed Tuesday's false break above the 1.4000 round number, dropping the pair from the 1.4014 swing high. Since then it has held a 1.3957–1.3976 Asian range. The asian high lines up with the 38.2% retrace of the overnight drop, and price sits in the upper half of the range into London open.
Support: 1.3957, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3976, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3976 asian high and 38.2% fib opens a retest of the 1.4000 round number
Break of the 1.3957 asian low exposes Tuesday's 1.3950 prior low
Reclaiming the 1.4014 swing high would negate the false break read
US ADP at 13:15 UTC (f/c 69K) could materially shift this read during NY hours
06:16 UTC
Post-drop range below EMAs · RSI 45 · price 1.3962
58-pip Asia slide, then a tight 1.3956–1.3976 box.
Midterm results hit USD early in the Asia session. The pair slid 58 pips from the 1.4014 session high to the 1.3956 asia low and broke the 1.3990–1.4000 shelf. Since then a 1.3956–1.3976 range has held into the pre-London hours, with the bounce stalling just shy of 38.2% of the drop fib and price sitting near the range floor.
Support: 1.3956, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3976, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3956 asia low exposes the 1.3950 prior low from Tuesday
Close above the 1.3976 range high reopens the 1.3990–1.4000 round number shelf
ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
06:02 UTC
Downtrend after overnight drop, now flat · RSI 45 · price 1.3962
Asian range 1.3956–1.3977 below broken 1.4000.
Midterm results and lower US yields knocked the pair off the 1.4014 swing high in early Asia, a near-60-pip slide through the 1.4000 psych level to the 1.3956 asian low. Since then it has ranged 1.3956–1.3977. The range top has capped three times near the 38.2% fib, the latest a 05:15 UTC rejection, and price is back near the floor ahead of London open.
Support: 1.3956, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3977, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
Break of the 1.3956 asian low exposes the 1.3950 prior low
Close above the 1.3977 range top reopens the 1.4000 psych level
ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range 1.3956–1.3977 after selloff from 1.4013.
The Democratic House win knocked USDCAD from its 1.4013 session high to the 1.3957 Asian low around 01:00 UTC as USD and yields slid. Three tests of 1.3956–1.3960 held. Late in the Asia session price is stacking higher lows from 04:30 UTC into the 1.3977 bounce high, roughly the 38.2% fib of the drop.
Support: 1.3969, 1.3957, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3977, 1.3985, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3977 bounce high breaks the Asian range top and opens the fib 50% at 1.3985, then the 1.4000 round number
Loss of the 1.3969 higher low returns price to the 1.3957 Asian low; a break there puts the 1.3950 prior low in play
ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range 1.3956–1.4014, base at the Asian low, lower highs capping.
The Asia session sold off 58 pips from the 1.4014 session high after the US midterm results knocked USD. The 1.3956 Asian low has held twice. Price is now compressing just under EMA20, beneath a trendline of lower highs and the 1.3977 bounce high, with RSI(14) neutral near 46.
Support: 1.3956, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3977, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3977 bounce high and the lower-highs trendline would complete the double bottom, near the 38.2% retracement of the Asian sell-off; that opens the 1.4000 round number
Failure to hold the 1.3956 Asian low would expose the 1.3950 prior low set during Tuesday's London session
London open is the first test of the Asian range below the 1.4014 session high
ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
05:16 UTC
Down-leg into Asia, now basing sideways · RSI 42 · price 1.39702
Post-drop range 1.3956–1.3977 below EMA20/EMA50.
Midterm-driven USD weakness at 01:00 UTC broke the 1.4000–1.4013 shelf and sent the pair to a 1.3956 session low. Since then late Asia has held a tight range with the range top at 1.3977, which is also the 38.2% of the drop. RSI(14) sits near 42 and price is pinned around EMA20 at 1.3973.
Support: 1.3956, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3977, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3977 range top / 38.2% opens the path back to the 1.4000 round number
Break of the 1.3956 session low exposes yesterday's prior low at 1.3950
London open is the first test of whether the Asian range holds
ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
05:02 UTC
Down after Asia sell-off, now stalling · RSI 44 · price 1.39702
Post-drop consolidation 1.3957–1.3977, equal lows at Asian low.
Early Asia dropped about 58 pips, from the 1.4014 session high to the 1.3956 Asian low, as early US midterm tallies knocked USD and yields. The fall took out Tuesday's NY range below the 1.4000 round number. Since then price has held a tight 1.3957–1.3977 consolidation, with repeated lows at the Asian low and the range top capping just under the 38.2% retrace, while 1.3970 sits below EMA20.
Support: 1.3957, 1.3950, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3977, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3977 range top and 38.2% retrace opens a path back toward the 1.4000 round number
Break below the 1.3957 Asian low exposes the 1.3950 Tue low and the 1.3941 7-week low
London open in about 2h is likely to test either edge of the Asian consolidation
Senate race calls through the session could extend or reverse the USD leg; ADP at 13:15 UTC follows
04:46 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 38 · price 1.39574
Lower highs since the 01:00 UTC drop, retesting the Asian low.
The pair fell 50+ pips off the 1.4014 session high during the Asia session as early midterm tallies hit the USD and yields. It lost the 1.4000 round number and has since put in a lower high at 1.3973, with late-Asia price back on the 1.3956 Asian low. RSI(14) is near 38, not stretched, and ATR(14) has compressed to about 9 pips.
Support: 1.39561, 1.39498, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.39735, 1.4000, 1.40136
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.3956 Asian low exposes Tuesday's 1.3950 London low, with the 1.3941 7wk low flagged in the digest just beneath
A close back above the 1.3973 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and turns the Asia drop into a range
1.4000 round number is the level that capped the rebound attempts after the break
Senate race calls through Wednesday and ADP/ISM Services later in the day could materially shift this read
London open in about 2.5h may break out of the compressed late-Asia range
Asia range break lower, now consolidating 1.3959–1.3977 under a lower high.
Early midterm tallies hit USD in the Asia session. The pair dropped about 58 pips from the 1.4014 session high and broke yesterday's 1.3990–1.4013 NY range, stalling at the 1.3956 asia low. Since then it has compressed between 1.3959 and the 1.3977 bounce high, which capped price near the 38.2% retrace, with a second lower high at 1.3974; RSI(14) is near 36 and not oversold.
Support: 1.3956, 1.3950, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3977, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3956 asia low resumes the lower-low chain and exposes the 1.3950 prior low from Tuesday's London session
The 1.3941 7-week low sits just below; a break there would extend the move beyond this window's range
Close above the 1.3977 bounce high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 1.4000 round number back in view
Senate race calls through the London open could add volatility via broad USD moves
ADP 13:15 UTC and ISM Services 15:00 UTC are the next scheduled USD risk
04:16 UTC
Downtrend after Asia selloff, consolidating · RSI 39 · price 1.39659
Lower highs inside 1.3956–1.3977 range after failed break above 1.40.
Early US midterm tallies hit the dollar in the Asia session. USDCAD dropped from a failed high at 1.4013, the false break above 1.40, through the 1.3996 breakdown to a 1.3956 Asia low. Price has since held a tight 1.3956–1.3977 range below both EMAs. Lower highs have formed under the 38.2% fib, and the range sits just above yesterday's 1.3950 London low.
Support: 1.3956, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3977, 1.3996, 1.4013
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3956 Asia low exposes yesterday's 1.3950 London low and the 1.3941 seven-week low
Close above 1.3977 (38.2% fib) breaks the lower-high sequence and reopens the 1.3996 breakdown
Reclaim of 1.40 back toward the 1.4013 failed high would negate the false-break read
Senate race calls through Wednesday could materially shift this read; a split-Congress outcome is the flagged USD relief trigger
04:02 UTC
Down after Asia drop, now compressing · RSI 39 · price 1.39659
Lower highs above the 1.3956 Asia low.
The early-Asia slide on Democrat-leaning midterm tallies lost the 1.4000 round number and ran from 1.4014 to the 1.3956 asia low. The bounce was rejected at the 1.3977 lower high near the 38.2% retrace, and late-Asia price is compressing under a falling-highs line with RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 1.3956, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3977, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3956 asia low confirms a lower-low and puts the 1.3950 prior low (Tuesday's London low) in play, with the 1.3941 seven-week low just beneath.
M15 close above the 1.3977 lower high breaks the falling-highs line and reopens 1.4000.
Senate control calls through the session could shift broad USD flows sharply.
ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC are the next scheduled USD catalysts.
03:46 UTC
Downtrend, Asia selloff pausing · RSI 39 · price 1.39702
Broke below 1.3990–1.4014 consolidation; base forming at 1.3956–1.3959.
Early-Asia election tallies hit the USD and broke the 1.3990–1.4014 consolidation, unwinding Tuesday's NY rally from the 24h high at 1.4014 to a session low of 1.3956. The 1.3959 retest has held, but the rebound is capped at the 1.3977 bounce high, just under the 38.2% fib. Price sits below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 1.3956, 1.3950, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3977, 1.3996, 1.4014
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3977 bounce high completes the double bottom and opens the 1.3996 breakdown level
Failure to hold the 1.3956 session low exposes Tuesday's 1.3950 swing low and the 1.3941 7-week low
A reclaim of the 24h high at 1.4014 would negate the Asia range break
Senate control calls and ADP at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower high at 1.3977, basing above 1.3956 swing low.
Tuesday's grind above the 1.4000 round number to a 1.4014 prior high turned into a false break. The Asia session then dropped 58 pips to the 1.3956 swing low as early midterm counts favouring Democrats pulled the USD and yields lower. The bounce stalled at 1.3977, near the 38.2% retrace, leaving a lower high. Price is now basing just above the swing low with RSI(14) near 37.
Support: 1.39561, 1.39498, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.39769, 1.4000, 1.40136
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.3956 swing low and Tuesday's 1.3950 london low extends the lower-high sequence toward the 1.3941 7-week low
A recovery above the 1.3977 lower high breaks the trendline and the 38.2% retrace, reopening the 1.4000 round number and 1.4014 prior high
Senate calls through the session, then ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
03:16 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs from the Asian high · RSI 29 · price 1.39607
False break above 1.4000 reversed; lower high at 1.3977, testing the Asian low.
Early-Asia midterm tallies showing Democratic gains knocked USD off the 1.4014 Asian high. That turned the move above the 1.4000 round number into a false break, and the Asia drop ran to 1.3956. The 1.3977 bounce capped as a lower high, and price is pressing the Asian low with RSI(14) near 29.
Support: 1.39561, 1.39498, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.39769, 1.4000, 1.40136
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3956 asian low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.3950 tue low
Break of the 1.3950 tue low exposes the 1.3941 7-week low
Reclaim of the 1.3977 lower high negates the downtrend read, with the 1.4000 round number and 1.4014 asian high above
Midterm House/Senate calls, then ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC), could materially shift this read
03:02 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs after overnight USD drop · RSI 31 · price 1.39607
Lower highs from 1.4014 Asian high, price pressing the 1.3956 session low.
Early midterm tallies showing Democratic gains hit USD at 01:00 UTC. USDCAD fell from the 1.4014 Asian high through the 1.3990–1.4000 area to a 1.3956 session low. The bounce stalled at 1.3977 within the sell-off fib, and price is back near the lows mid-Asia session with the lower highs intact, RSI(14) near 31 and yesterday's 1.3950 low just below.
Support: 1.3956, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3977, 1.4014
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 1.3950 yday low extends the lower-low sequence
M15 close above the 1.3977 bounce high breaks the lower-highs trendline
Reclaim of 1.4000 and the 1.4014 Asian high would erase the overnight drop
Further midterm House/Senate calls, then ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC), could materially shift this read
Lower high at 1.3977 after Asia sell-off from 1.4014.
Early Asia midterm tallies showing Democratic gains knocked USD/CAD from the 1.4014 Asia high to a 1.3956 session low, erasing Tuesday's NY-session climb through the 1.4000 round number. The bounce was rejected at 1.3977, just under the 38.2% fib, and price is back near 1.3970 with RSI(14) around 37.
Support: 1.39561, 1.39498
Resistance: 1.39769, 1.4000, 1.40136
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3977 bounce high and 38.2% fib undoes the lower-high read
Break of the 1.3956 session low exposes the 1.3950 Tuesday low
Further midterm results through Asia could extend or reverse the USD move
Reclaim of the 1.4000 round number restores the prior range toward the 1.4014 Asia high
02:31 UTC
Sharp Asia sell-off, early rebound · RSI 37 · price 1.39746
Lower high/lower low off 1.4014; first bounce capped near 1.3977.
Early midterm tallies showing Democratic gains hit USD in the Asia session. USDCAD fell from the 1.4014 session high through the 1.3991 breakdown shelf to an Asian low at 1.3956, just above Tuesday's 1.3950 low. The rebound is stalling at the 1.3977 bounce high, right under the 38.2% fib, and RSI(14) is recovering from the high-20s to 37.
Support: 1.39561, 1.39498, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.39769, 1.3991, 1.40136
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.3991 breakdown shelf invalidates the range-break read
Rejection at the 1.3977 bounce high / 38.2% fib keeps the lower-high sequence intact
Loss of the 1.3956 Asian low exposes the Tuesday low at 1.3950 and the 1.3941 7-week low
Further midterm race calls, then ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC), could materially shift this read
02:16 UTC
Downtrend, early Asia leg lower · RSI 34 · price 1.39681
Range break below Tuesday's 1.3990–1.4014 band; lower highs off 1.4014.
Early Asia broke Tuesday's 1.3990–1.4014 range, with USD sold as midterm tallies showed Democratic gains, and price hit an Asia low at 1.3956 before a bounce stalled near 1.3968. Lower highs off the 1.4014 prior high remain intact below the breakdown bar high at 1.3980. RSI(14) sits at 34, below oversold.
Support: 1.3956, 1.3950, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3980, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.3980 breakdown bar high, the fib 38.2%, invalidates the lower-high read
Failure to hold the 1.3956 Asia low exposes Tuesday's 1.3950 swing low and the 1.3941 7-week low
1.4000 psych and the 1.4014 prior high cap any recovery that clears the descending lower-high trendline
Midterm House/Senate calls through today could swing USD; ADP at 13:15 UTC follows
Asia break below late-NY range, lower low at 1.3956.
USD/CAD shed about 57 pips in the Asia session from the 1.4014 session high as US midterm results landed. The move broke the 1.3991–1.4014 late-NY range floor and set a 1.3956 swing low, just above Tuesday's 1.3950 London low. The bounce is stalling under the 1.3973 bounce high, with RSI(14) at 34 and price below EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 1.39561, 1.39498
Resistance: 1.39727, 1.3991, 1.4000
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.3956 swing low exposes Tuesday's 1.3950 London low
A recovery through the 1.3973 bounce high and the 50% fib near 1.3985 would weaken the lower-low read
The range floor at 1.3991, the round number 1.4000 and the selloff trendline cap any retrace
Further Senate race calls through Asia and London could materially shift this read
Failed hold above 1.4000, Asia lower highs, NY rally mostly retraced.
Early Asia session unwound the NY rally. Price held above 1.4000 for most of the late-US hours, then failed after the 1.4014 window high and slid about 36 pips as US midterm results filtered through. It is now below the 61.8% fib at 1.3974, with RSI(14) near 27, just above yesterday's london lows (1.3958) and the 1.3950 swing low.
Support: 1.3958, 1.3950, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3974, 1.3991, 1.4014
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.3950 swing low exposes the 1.3941 7-week low
Recovery above the 1.3974 fib 61.8 and the 1.3991 breakdown point would neutralise the slide
Retest of the 1.4014 window high reopens the 1.4000 range-top read
Senate race calls through Asia/Europe could materially shift this read; ADP and ISM Services follow later Wed
Lower high at 1.4014, sharp break of 1.3991 lows, testing rally 61.8%.
Early Asia session saw a false break above the 1.4000 round number stall at the 1.4014 asian high. A 23-pip bar during the midterm results flow then cut through the 1.3991 broken low to a 1.3972 session low, sitting on the 61.8% of the NY rally fib from the 1.3950 day low. RSI(14) is near 35 with price below both EMAs.
Support: 1.3972, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3991, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.3972 session low and rally 61.8% opens the path to the 1.3950 day low
Reclaim of the 1.3991 broken low, then the 1.4000 round number, would revive the 1.3990–1.4000 range read
A move back above the 1.4014 asian high would turn the false break into a breakout
Senate race calls through Asia/Europe could materially shift this read
US ADP at 13:15 UTC Wed is the next scheduled volatility point
01:16 UTC
Uptrend stalling, early Asia pullback · RSI 41 · price 1.3993
Rally off London low capped at 1.4013, back below 1.4000 testing rising trendline.
USD/CAD extended Tuesday's NY rally from the 1.3950 London low on firm US data. The early-Asia session high at 1.4013 drew rejection and price slipped back under the 1.4000 round number. The Asian low at 1.3991 is holding on the rising trendline near the 38.2% fib of the rally, with RSI(14) easing to ~41.
Support: 1.3991, 1.3989, 1.3982
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4013
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3989 swing low breaks the rising trendline and opens the 50% fib near 1.3982
Recovery above the 1.4000 round number puts the 1.4013 session high back in focus
US midterm Senate calls landing through Asia could materially shift this read
01:02 UTC
NY up leg stalled, early Asia pullback · RSI 40 · price 1.3993
Lower highs off 1.4014, back below 1.4000 at the 38.2% fib.
The NY leg rallied from the 1.3950 London low through the 1.4000 round number on the US data beats, and topped at the 1.4014 24h high into the Asia open. Early Asia has printed lower highs and slipped back below 1.4000 as midterm results land. Price is now sitting on the NY leg fib 38.2 at 1.3989, which lines up with the late-NY swing low, with RSI(14) at 40.
Support: 1.3989, 1.3982, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.3989 (fib 38.2) opens the 1.3982 fib 50% and puts the 1.3950 london low back in view
Reclaim and hold above the 1.4000 round number shifts focus back to the 1.4014 24h high
Senate race calls during the Asia session could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from the 1.3950 London low; Asia session false break above 1.4000, now printing a lower low below 1.4001.
USD/CAD climbed about 64 pips off the 1.3950 London low on a firmer USD and Tuesday's US data beats, led by JOLTS. It reached a 1.4014 session high early in Asia as midterm results came in. That push above the 1.4000 round number has been rejected, with price back at 1.3994, RSI(14) at 42 and the 1.3989 swing low (38.2% fib) just below.
Support: 1.39886, 1.39704, 1.39498
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.40136
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3989 swing low breaks the HL sequence and exposes the 1.3970 ny dip low (61.8% fib zone 1.3974)
Reclaim and hold above the 1.4000 round number negates the false-break read and brings the 1.4014 session high back into view
Senate race calls through Asia could materially shift this read, with ADP and ISM Services due later Wednesday
00:31 UTC
Uptrend, pausing at 1.4000 · RSI 50 · price 1.40024
Higher lows from 1.3950; lower highs off 1.4014 Asia high, retesting psych.
The rally from the 1.3950 London low ran through the 1.4000 psych cap during NY as firm US data and a stronger USD outweighed oil-driven CAD gains. Early Asia printed a 1.4014 Asia high, then eased back to retest 1.4000, with price slipping under EMA20 and RSI(14) back near 50. The higher-low chain holds above the 1.3989 swing low, which lines up with the 38.2% retracement of the rally fib.
Support: 1.4000, 1.39886
Resistance: 1.40136
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4000 psych turns the breakout into a false break and exposes the 1.3989 swing low / 38.2% of the rally fib
Recovery through the 1.4014 Asia high resumes the higher-high sequence
The 22:15 UTC dip to 1.3996 printed on thin rollover-hour bars and does not reflect a structural level
Midterm Senate results during Asia could jolt USD; Wed ADP 13:15 UTC and ISM Services 15:00 UTC are the next data risks
Higher lows from 1.3950 London low; pullback to 1.4000 retest.
The NY session reversed the 1.3950 London low as firm US data and Iran-driven USD demand erased CAD's oil gains, pushing price through the 1.4000 round number to a 1.4014 session high late on. Early Asia is easing back onto 1.4000, which is now being retested. The swing low at 1.3989 lines up with the 38.2% retracement of the rally.
Support: 1.4000, 1.39886
Resistance: 1.40136
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4000 round number shifts focus to the 1.3989 swing low and the 38.2% rally fib
A break of the 1.4014 session high extends the higher-high chain
The Senate midterm call during Asia hours could materially shift USD and this read
ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC are the next scheduled USD risk
00:02 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back at Asia open · RSI 49 · price 1.40037
Higher-low chain from 1.3950 London low; first pullback from 1.4014 session high.
Pair reversed the oil-driven CAD bid at the 1.3950 London low and climbed through NY on the JOLTS beat. The NY swing low at 1.3989 sits on the 38.2% of the rally, and the session high printed at 1.4014 as midterm results began landing. Price is now back on the 1.4000 round number at the Asia open, slipping under EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral near 49.
Support: 1.4000, 1.39886, 1.39498
Resistance: 1.40136
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4000 round number exposes the 1.3989 swing low (38.2% of the rally)
M15 close above the 1.4014 session high extends the higher-high chain
Break below the 1.3989 swing low ends the higher-low structure and points back toward the 1.3950 london low
Senate control call overnight could materially shift this read