V-reversal from the London low into a higher-high/higher-low chain; holding above the 1.4000 psych level.
CAD's oil-driven bid took USDCAD to a London low of 1.3950. Strong US data (JOLTS beat) then drove an NY reversal through the 1.3996 Asian range high and the 1.4000 psych. The late-NY swing low at 1.3989 held at the 38.2% fib of the London low-to-day high leg, and early Asia has printed a day high at 1.4014 with a micro low at 1.4004, as midterm results begin.
Support: 1.40035, 1.4000, 1.39886
Resistance: 1.40136
What it said to watch
US midterm Senate call overnight could materially shift this read; only a Democratic sweep is flagged as a real USD negative
M15 close back below the 1.4000 psych returns price to the old 1.3990–1.4000 cap
Failure to hold the 1.3989 swing low and 38.2% fib breaks the higher-low chain
Acceptance above the 1.4014 day high extends the higher-high sequence; a slip under the 1.4004 micro low points to a 1.4000 retest
A steady HH/HL climb off the 1.3950 London low, backed by beats on US JOLTS and factory orders, carried USD/CAD through Tuesday's 1.3996 Asian high and the 1.4000 round number during NY hours. The first midterm results at 23:00 UTC drove a spike to a 1.4014 day high that partly faded. The 1.3996 rollover wick was thin-liquidity noise, and the 1.4004 higher low is intact as the Asia session opens.
Support: 1.4004, 1.4000, 1.3989
Resistance: 1.40136
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4004 higher low and the 1.4000 round number would undo the NY breakout
Loss of 1.4000 exposes the 38.2% fib at 1.3989, which sits on the 18:00 UTC swing low
A clean break of the 1.4014 day high extends the HH chain
The Senate control call from overnight midterm results could materially shift this read
23:17 UTC
Uptrend, fresh session high · RSI 64 · price 1.40134
HH/HL chain from London low, 1.4000 cap broken.
Steady higher-low climb since the 1.39498 London low after the JOLTS beat firmed USD. NY pushed through the 1.3990–1.4000 cap, and early Asia session is printing a fresh session high at 1.40136 as US midterm results start landing. The 22:15 UTC rollover dip to 1.3996 was a thin-liquidity spike, and the 1.4000 round number has held since.
Support: 1.4000, 1.39886, 1.39498
Resistance: 1.40136
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4000 round number puts price back inside the old 1.3990–1.4000 cap
Loss of the 1.39886 swing low (38.2% of the London-NY leg) breaks the higher-low chain
Senate control call overnight could materially shift this read; a Democratic sweep is the main USD downside tail
23:02 UTC
Uptrend, pressing session high · RSI 61 · price 1.40113
Higher highs and higher lows since the 1.3950 London low; 1.4000 cap broken.
The NY rally off the 1.3950 London low, on strong US JOLTS and a firmer USD, cleared the 1.4000 round number that had capped the pair, and price sits at the 1.4012 session high in thin post-NY trade with RSI(14) near 61. A rollover-hour wick to 1.3996 was reclaimed straight away, and the 18:00 UTC swing low at 1.3989 lines up with the 38.2% retracement of the move.
Support: 1.4000, 1.39886
Resistance: 1.40115
What it said to watch
US midterm Senate results from 23:00 UTC could materially shift this read in Asia
Failure to hold the 1.4000 round number on a closing basis turns the breakout into a false break
Break of the 1.3989 swing low and 38.2% fib undoes the NY higher-low chain
Close above the 1.4012 session high extends the higher-high sequence into open space
HH/HL chain from the London low, holding above 1.4000.
NY reversed the London drop to the 1.3950 London low. It reclaimed the Asian high near 1.3996 and broke the 1.3990–1.4000 cap to a day high at 1.4012, as USD firmed on the JOLTS beat. Higher lows held above the 1.4000 round number into rollover; RSI(14) near 54 is skewed by the rollover spread spike.
Support: 1.4000, 1.39886, 1.39498
Resistance: 1.40115
What it said to watch
US midterm results from shortly after 23:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close back below the 1.4000 round number would mark the cap break as a false break
Loss of the 1.3989 swing low (38.2% fib) breaks the HL chain
Clear of the 1.4012 day high extends the HH sequence
Higher-low chain from the 1.3950 London low, holding above 1.4000.
London sold off to a 1.39498 day low before NY reversed it on the back of strong US data, building a higher-low chain through the 1.3990-1.4000 cap to a 1.40115 day high. A thin rollover spike to 1.3996 snapped straight back, and price is holding just above the 1.4000 round number with RSI(14) neutral near 57.
Support: 1.4000, 1.39886, 1.39498
Resistance: 1.40115
What it said to watch
US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC could materially shift this read in thin Asia session liquidity
M15 close back below the 1.4000 round number reopens the old cap as resistance
Break of the 1.39886 swing low ends the NY higher-low chain and the rally trendline
Close above the 1.40115 day high extends the uptrend into fresh session territory
HH/HL chain off the 1.3950 London low, holding above 1.4000.
USD/CAD built a HH/HL chain off the 1.3950 London low. Firm US data, led by the JOLTS beat, lifted NY through the 1.3996 Asian high and the 1.4000 round number to a 1.4012 session high. Price is now drifting into the rollover on the rising trendline, and the 1.3989 swing low sits near the 38.2% rally fib.
Support: 1.4000, 1.39962, 1.39886
Resistance: 1.40115
What it said to watch
US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC could materially shift this read during the Asia session
M15 close back below the 1.4000 round number undercuts the breakout read
Loss of the 1.3989 swing low breaks the HL chain and the 38.2% rally fib
Session high at 1.4012: area to watch for rejection or break
NY reversal from London low, breakout above 1.4000 cap.
NY reversed the London sell-off from the 1.3950 london low as USD firmed on strong US data. Price cleared the Asian range high and the 1.4000 round number, which the CAD digest flags as the recent cap. Since the 18:00 UTC swing low at 1.3989, a tight higher-low chain, holding the 38.2% fib, has carried price to a session high at 1.4012 in thin post-NY trade, with RSI(14) near 72.
Support: 1.4000, 1.39886, 1.39498
Resistance: 1.40115
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4000 round number would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.3989 swing low breaks the late-NY higher-low chain
US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC could gap price through either side of the session high
Rejection at the 1.4012 session high with RSI(14) rolling off 72 would mark stalling momentum
21:46 UTC
Uptrend, compressing near highs · RSI 70 · price 1.40084
HH/HL chain off London low, holding above 1.4000.
The NY rally reversed London's slide to 1.3950. Price cleared the Asian high at 1.3996 and the 1.4000 round number after Tuesday's US data beats, while oil whipsawed. The 1.3989 higher low held, and late-NY price is compressing just under the 1.4010 session high with RSI(14) near 70.
Support: 1.4000, 1.39962, 1.39886
Resistance: 1.40096
What it said to watch
A close back below the 1.4000 round number turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.3989 higher low breaks the HH/HL chain
Acceptance above the 1.4010 session high extends the NY rally
US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC could materially shift this read in the Asia session
Higher lows from the London low; 1.4000 psych now acting as a floor.
USDCAD turned from the 1.3950 London low ahead of NY and climbed as beat-heavy US data, including JOLTS, firmed the USD. The rally cleared the Asian high and the 1.3990-1.4000 cap, and the 1.3989 swing low near the 38.2% fib held as a higher low. Price is drifting just under the 1.4010 session high after NY close, with RSI(14) near 69 and ATR(14) about 4 pips in a tight late-session range.
Support: 1.4000, 1.39886, 1.39498
Resistance: 1.40096
What it said to watch
US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC could materially shift this read during the Asia session
An M15 close back below 1.4000 psych puts the breakout in question
Loss of the 1.3989 swing low breaks the higher-low chain from the London low
A close above the 1.4010 session high extends the higher-high sequence
Oil whipsaw on Iran headlines can override the intraday structure via the CAD leg
V-reversal from 1.3950 day low into higher highs/higher lows above 1.4000.
London's slide to the 1.3950 day low reversed sharply from 12:00 UTC. NY then pushed through the 1.3990–1.4000 cap as USD firmed on the JOLTS and factory orders beats and oil whipsawed. The late-NY grind has built higher highs to a 1.4010 session high, with the 1.4000 round number underneath and the 1.3989 swing low, near the 38.2% fib, holding as the last higher low. RSI(14) is around 68 and the bars are narrowing.
Support: 1.4000, 1.39886
Resistance: 1.40096
What it said to watch
Return below the 1.4000 round number would mark the push above the old cap as a false break
Break of the 1.3989 swing low ends the higher-low chain and opens the 38.2% fib zone near 1.3987
Close above the 1.4010 session high extends the higher-high chain
US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC could materially shift this read during the Asia session
21:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend, extending into late NY · RSI 69 · price 1.40077
V-reversal from 1.3950 London low; higher-low chain above broken 1.4000.
USDCAD reversed from the 1.3950 London low after 12:00 UTC and cleared the 1.3996 Asian high during NY hours, as USD firmed on the JOLTS and factory-orders beats. Late NY has pushed through the 1.4000 round number to a 1.4010 session high, with higher lows stacked above the 1.3989 swing low; RSI(14) near 69 and ATR(14) around 4 pips.
Support: 1.4000, 1.39962, 1.39886
Resistance: 1.40096
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4000 round number puts price back inside the prior 1.3990-1.4000 cap
Loss of the 1.3989 swing low, near the 38.2% fib of the 1.3950-1.4010 rally, breaks the higher-low chain
Failure to hold the 1.3996 Asian high on a pullback would undercut the breakout read
US midterm results from about 23:00 UTC could materially shift this read during the Asia session
20:46 UTC
Uptrend off London low, momentum flattening · RSI 67 · price 1.40049
Higher highs and higher lows through NY; Asian high and 1.4000 cleared.
USDCAD turned up from the 1.3950 London low and built higher lows through NY, clearing the 1.3996 Asian high and the 1.4000 round number as the dollar firmed on the JOLTS and factory orders beats. Late NY is pinned at the 1.4006 session high with RSI(14) near 67 and bar ranges contracting.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3989, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.4006
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 1.4000 round number would turn the break into a false break.
Loss of the 1.3989 higher low, near the 38.2% of the 1.3950–1.4006 rally fib, breaks rising support and the NY HH/HL chain.
US midterm results from 23:00 UTC could materially shift this read in thin late-session liquidity.
Higher highs and higher lows since the 1.3950 London low, now through the 1.3990–1.4000 cap.
London broke below the 1.3967–1.3996 Asian range to a 1.3950 low. The rally from that London low then built a HH/HL chain through NY, as JOLTS and factory orders beats firmed USD and oil whipsawed. Price pushed through the 1.3990–1.4000 cap and is now holding above the 1.4000 round number just under the 1.4006 session high, with RSI(14) around 64 and not stretched.
Support: 1.4000, 1.39886, 1.39704
Resistance: 1.40061
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4000 round number would turn the cap break into a false break
Loss of the 1.3989 higher low and the rising trendline ends the HH/HL sequence, exposing the 1.3970 ny low
A new session high above 1.4006 extends the breakout late in the NY session
US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain off the 1.3950 London low, pressing 1.4000.
London sold the pair to 1.3950. NY then reversed it, helped by beats in US JOLTS and factory orders and firmer oil-linked USD demand, breaking above the Asian high at 1.3996. Price is now holding just over the 1.4000 round number at a 1.4005 session high, with the 17:30 UTC swing low at 1.3989 the latest higher low and the rising trendline from 1.3950 intact.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3996, 1.3989
Resistance: 1.4005
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 1.4000 round number would mark the breakout as a false break into the 1.3996 asian high
Loss of 1.3989 swing low breaks the HL chain and puts the 1.3984 fib 38.2 of the NY rally in play
Rising trendline from the 1.3950 London low: a break would end the intraday uptrend structure
Midterm results from ~23:00 UTC could materially shift this read in thin late-session liquidity
20:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend, higher lows since London low · RSI 61 · price 1.40032
HH/HL chain off 1.3950, pressing above 1.4000 cap.
London broke the Asian range low and printed 1.3950. NY reversed that move, and the rally extended after the JOLTS and Factory Orders beats. Late NY now holds above the 1.3996 Asian high and the 1.4000 round number, with higher lows into the 1.4005 session high, RSI(14) near 61.
Support: 1.4000, 1.39962, 1.39886
Resistance: 1.40046
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.3996 asian high turns the 1.4000 breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.3989 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and the rising trendline
Midterm results from ~23:00 UTC can materially shift this read in thin Asia trade
Acceptance above the 1.4005 session high extends the HH sequence
19:46 UTC
Uptrend, pressing 1.4000 · RSI 62 · price 1.4003
Higher-low chain off the 1.3950 London low, now testing the 1.4000 round number.
USD caught a bid after the JOLTS and Factory Orders beats, and NY hours built higher lows at the 1.3970 swing low and the 1.3989 higher low off the 1.3950 London low. Price is now holding just above the 1.4000 round number, the cap flagged in the CAD read, with the session high at 1.4005 and RSI(14) near 62, not stretched. The 61.8% fib of the rally sits at the 1.3970 swing low.
Support: 1.4000, 1.39886, 1.39704
Resistance: 1.40046, 1.4050
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4000 round number turns the break into a false break
Loss of the 1.3989 higher low breaks the NY rising trendline and the higher-low chain
Acceptance above the 1.4005 session high opens the 1.4050 psych level
US midterm results from about 23:00 UTC could materially shift this read during the Asia session
19:31 UTC
Uptrend, retesting session high · RSI 60 · price 1.40003
Higher lows off the 1.3950 day low, pressing 1.4000.
London's slide to the 1.3950 day low reversed from 12:00 UTC. NY broke the asian high at 1.3996 on the US data beats and the oil whipsaw, and printed a 1.4003 day high. Late NY is retesting that high after a 1.3989 swing low, with RSI(14) near 60 and the rising trendline intact.
Support: 1.39962, 1.39886, 1.39704
Resistance: 1.40031
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4003 day high clears the 1.3990-1.4000 cap that has capped the pair
M15 close below the 1.3989 swing low breaks the rising trendline and the higher-low chain
Loss of the 1.3970 hl pivot, which sits on the 61.8% retracement of the day-low rally, would unwind most of the NY move
US midterm results from about 23:00 UTC could materially shift this read in the Asia session
Higher-low chain from the London low, highs capped at the round number.
USDCAD rebounded from the 1.3950 London low after 12:00 UTC. It has built a higher-low chain through NY as US data beats (JOLTS) lifted USD and Macklem's hawkish line faded. In late NY hours price is pressing the 1.4000 round number, with the 1.4003 session high capping twice and RSI(14) near 62 with no extreme.
Support: 1.39886, 1.39704, 1.39498
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.40031
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4003 session high clears the round-number cap
Break of the 1.3989 higher low ends the NY higher-low chain; the 1.3970 swing low, at the 61.8% retracement of the rally, sits below
US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Price has climbed about 50 pips off the 1.3950 London low, with firmer US data lifting USD. It has cleared the Asian high and printed a chain of higher lows into late NY. The 1.4000 round number and the 1.4003 session high rejected the first push, and the pair is back testing that cap with RSI(14) near 63, not stretched.
Support: 1.3996, 1.3989, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4003
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4003 session high breaks the 1.4000 round number cap
Slip back under the 1.3996 Asian high and then the 1.3989 higher low breaks the NY higher-lows sequence
Below 1.3989, the 50% fib of the London low–NY high leg at 1.3977 comes into view, with the 1.3950 London low further out
US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC could materially shift this read
18:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend off London low, stalling at 1.4000 · RSI 55 · price 1.39981
HH/HL chain from 1.3950, retesting session high.
London drove USDCAD to the 1.3950 London low before NY reversed it. The rally extended on the JOLTS beat, cleared the 1.3996 Asian high and tagged the 1.4003 session high. Late-NY pullback held a higher low at 1.3989, and price is back pressing the 1.4000 cap with RSI(14) mid-50s.
Support: 1.39962, 1.39886, 1.39498
Resistance: 1.40031
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4003 session high extends the HH chain through the 1.4000 cap
Break below the 1.3989 higher low turns the pullback into a lower low and exposes the fib 50% near 1.3977
Loss of rising support from the London low weakens the intraday uptrend read
US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC could materially shift this read
18:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the London low, stalling under 1.4000 · RSI 63 · price 1.39933
Higher-low chain since 12:00 UTC, tight consolidation below session high.
London drove the pair to the 1.3950 london low before a sharp reversal through the London-NY transition, extended by US data beats (JOLTS, factory orders), cleared the Asian range high and printed a 1.4003 session high, where supply capped the move at the 1.4000 round number as hawkish Macklem testimony backed CAD. Price is now consolidating at 1.3989–1.3999 above the latest higher low, with RSI(14) cooling to ~63 and ATR(14) near 5 pips.
Support: 1.3989, 1.3970, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.4003
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3989 higher low breaks the HL chain and exposes the 1.3970 ny pivot, aligned with the 61.8% rally fib
Acceptance above the 1.4003 session high negates the rejection at 1.4000
US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC could materially shift this read during the Asia session
NY rally from London low, rejection at 1.4003, lower highs since.
NY session reversed the 1.3950 London low with a 50-pip rally on firm US data, but the probe through the 1.4000 handle to the 1.4003 day high was rejected. Late NY, after London close, price is drifting inside 1.3987–1.4003 with a lower high at 1.3994 and a swing low at 1.3987. RSI(14) is neutral near 53 and ATR is about 5.6 pips.
Support: 1.3987, 1.3978, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3994, 1.4003
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3987 swing low exposes the 1.3978 ny pivot, near the 38.2% of the ny rally fib
Close back above the 1.3994 lower high and the 1.4003 day high negates the 1.4000 rejection
Loss of 1.3978 opens the path back toward the 1.3950 london low
US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC could materially shift this read
V-reversal from the 1.3950 day low; HH/HL chain intact but flattening below the round number.
The Asia-to-London slide bottomed at the 1.3950 day low. A sharp reversal through NY hours, alongside US JOLTS and factory orders beats, lifted the pair through the 1.3996 Asian high to 1.4003. Rejection under the 1.4000 round number has price easing to 1.3992 with RSI(14) near 51, and the higher-low chain holds above the 1.3987 swing low.
Support: 1.3987, 1.3978, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3996, 1.4000
What it said to watch
Break of the 1.3987 swing low exposes the 1.3978 higher low and the 38.2% fib near 1.3983
Loss of the 1.3978 higher low ends the HH/HL chain and puts the 1.3950 day low back in focus
M15 close above the 1.4000 round number and 1.4003 session high invalidates the rejection read
US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC and Iran/oil headlines could materially shift this read
17:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend from London low, stalling at 1.4000 · RSI 59 · price 1.39932
HH/HL chain since 1.3950, shallow pullback after rejection at session high.
London broke the Asian range low to a london low at 1.3950 as hawkish Macklem remarks and firm oil lifted CAD. NY reversed the move on USD strength after the JOLTS beat, building a HH/HL chain to a 1.4003 session high. Late NY shows rejection at the 1.4000 round number, with price slipping back under the asian high at 1.3996 but holding above the 1.3987 swing low and EMA20.
Support: 1.3987, 1.3970, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3996, 1.4003
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4003 session high clears the 1.4000 round-number cap
Break of the 1.3987 swing low ends the NY HH/HL chain. Next is the ny pivot low at 1.3970, near the 61.8% fib
US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC could materially shift this read during the Asia session
17:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend from London low, stalling at 1.4000 · RSI 60 · price 1.39938
HH/HL chain off 1.3950; false break above Asian high.
London broke the Asian low and ran to a 1.3950 london low before NY reversed it as USD recovered on Iran headlines. A HH/HL chain carried price to a 1.4003 session high above the 1.3996 asian high. Rejection at the 1.4000 psych has since pulled price back under the asian high and the rising trendline after London close, with RSI(14) cooling to ~60.
Support: 1.3987, 1.3978, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3996, 1.4003
What it said to watch
Close back above the 1.3996 asian high reopens the 1.4003 session high and 1.4000 psych
Failure to hold the 1.3987 higher low ends the NY HH/HL chain; the 1.3978 swing low and the 38.2% fib near 1.3983 come next
A break of the 1.3978 swing low exposes the 50% fib near 1.3977 and puts the 1.3950 london low back in view
US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain off the London low; Asian high being retested.
London broke below the Asian range to a 1.3950 london low. NY then extended a HH/HL recovery on the US data beats (JOLTS, factory orders), cleared the 1.3996 asian high and was rejected at the 1.4000 round number, leaving a 1.4003 session high. Price is now retesting the asian high with RSI(14) near 61.
Support: 1.3996, 1.3987, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4003
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.3987 swing low breaks the HH/HL chain and the higher-low trendline
M15 close above the 1.4003 session high clears the 1.4000 round number cap
61.8% fib of the london low–high leg sits near 1.3970; a move back there reopens the 1.3950 london low
US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain since 1.3950 session low, above Asian range.
London sold through the Asian range to a 1.3950 session low at 11:45 UTC, then a 53-pip reversal took NY above the 1.3996 Asian high as US data beat (JOLTS 7.52M), outweighing Macklem's hawkish CAD read. After London close, price is stalling at the 1.4000 psych level after a wick to a 1.4003 day high. The higher-low chain above the 1.3987 swing low is intact, with RSI(14) at about 66.
Support: 1.39962, 1.3987, 1.39704
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.40031
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4003 day high breaks the 1.4000 psych cap
Loss of the 1.3996 Asian high returns price inside the prior range
Break of the 1.3987 swing low and the rising trendline ends the HL chain; 61.8% fib at 1.3970 next
US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC could materially shift this read
16:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pressing the high · RSI 63 · price 1.39957
Higher lows since the 11:30 UTC low, compressing under 1.4000.
London sold through the Asian range low to a 1.3950 day low by 11:30 UTC before a sharp midday reversal. NY built a higher-low chain to a 1.3999 session high above the Asian range top. Price is now compressing between the 1.3987 pullback low and the 1.4000 round number after London close, firming through Macklem's 16:00 UTC remarks, with RSI(14) near 63.
Support: 1.3987, 1.3970, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.39988, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4000 round number clears the session high and extends the higher-low chain
Break of rising support and the 1.3987 pullback low opens the 1.3970 higher low, near the 61.8% fib of the day-low rally
Failure at the 1.3970 higher low exposes the 1.3950 day low
US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows from the 1.3950 London low, highs capped flat at 1.3999.
The 1.3950 London low reversed into a NY-session rally on firm US data. Price reached a session high at 1.3999, rejected three times just shy of the 1.4000 round number. Higher lows at the 1.3970 swing low and the 1.3987 higher low hold along the rising trendline, RSI(14) ~65, and Macklem's 16:00 UTC remarks have drawn little reaction so far.
Support: 1.3987, 1.3970, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3999, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4000 round number breaks the flat session high cap
Loss of the 1.3987 higher low and rising trendline exposes the 1.3970 swing low near the fib 50% at 1.3974
Break back below the 1.3950 London low unwinds the full NY rally
Macklem remarks now and US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows off the 1.3950 London low, double rejection at the session high.
USD/CAD reversed from the 1.3950 London session low into a 49-pip NY rally after firm US data (JOLTS and Factory Orders beats), printing higher lows along a rising trendline. Two rejections at the 1.3999 session high just under the 1.4000 round number. Price is holding the trendline near 1.3987, the 23.6% level of the NY rally, as Macklem begins speaking.
Support: 1.3987, 1.3978, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3999, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4000 round number clears the session high cap
Close below the 1.3978 swing low breaks the NY higher-low chain and exposes the 38.2–50% zone of the NY rally fib (1.3980–1.3974)
Macklem (16:00 UTC, live): growth or pause language vs hike guidance could move CAD sharply
US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC could materially shift this read
16:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the London low, stalling under 1.4000 · RSI 58 · price 1.39906
V-shaped reversal from 1.3950; higher lows since 12:00 UTC, twin tops at 1.3999.
London sold the pair from the 1.3996 Asian high to a 1.3950 session low as firmer oil lifted CAD. It reversed sharply from 12:00 UTC on strong US data, including the JOLTS and Factory Orders beats, with a rising line of higher lows. Two rejections at the 1.3999 session high just under 1.4000 have price easing to 1.3990, and RSI(14) has cooled to ~58.
Support: 1.3987, 1.3970, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3996, 1.3999
What it said to watch
Macklem speaking now (16:00 UTC): CAD-hawkish or pause language could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.3999 session high and 1.4000 invalidates the twin-top rejection
Break of the 1.3987 pullback low and rising support exposes the 1.3970 swing low near the 61.8% fib
Failure to hold 1.3970 reopens the 1.3950 session low
US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC are a gap and volatility risk into Asia
15:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend off London low, testing 1.4000 · RSI 69 · price 1.39967
V-reversal from 1.3950; NY higher lows, Asian range high broken.
London sold the pair to a 1.3950 day low. NY reversed it, and the move sped up after the firm JOLTS and Factory Orders beats, clearing the 1.3996 Asian high. Price is now holding just under the 1.3999 session high and 1.4000 psych, with RSI(14) near 69 and higher lows stacked along the NY trendline.
Support: 1.3996, 1.3984, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3999, 1.4000
What it said to watch
Macklem speaks at 16:00 UTC, the next bar, and could materially shift this read
M15 close above 1.4000 psych extends the breakout; rejection there leaves a session high cap
Close back below the 1.3996 Asian high, then the 1.3984 swing low, breaks the NY trendline higher-low chain
US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC add overnight event risk
15:31 UTC
Uptrend off London low, pressing 1.4000 · RSI 66 · price 1.39967
V-reversal from 1.3950; higher-low chain since 12:00 UTC, Asian high broken.
London sold through the Asian range to a 1.3950 london low before a sharp turn from 12:00 UTC. NY hours added higher lows at 1.3970 and 1.3978, and the firm JOLTS beat extended the move through the 1.3996 asian high to a 1.3999 session high just under the 1.4000 round number. RSI(14) at 66 is not stretched.
Support: 1.39962, 1.39783, 1.39498
Resistance: 1.4000
What it said to watch
Macklem at 16:00 UTC, the next bar period, could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.4000 round number extends the breakout beyond the session high
Slip back below the 1.3996 asian high puts price back inside the Asian range and signals a false break
Break of the 1.3978 higher low ends the higher-low chain and the trendline
US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC are an overnight volatility risk
HH/HL chain off 1.3950 London low, capped at 1.3998 day high.
London pushed USD/CAD to a 1.3950 session low, then the NY rally reclaimed the Asian range with higher lows at 1.3970 and 1.3978. Supply capped the move at the 1.3998 day high, just under the 1.4000 round number, as oil-backed CAD firmness held. RSI(14) sits at 63.
Support: 1.3978, 1.3970, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3998, 1.4000
What it said to watch
Macklem speaks at 16:00 UTC, about 45 minutes out, and could materially shift this read
An M15 close above the 1.4000 round number clears the day high cap
Losing the 1.3978 swing low breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the 1.3970 higher low, near the NY rally fib 50% (~1.3974)
A return to the 1.3950 session low would erase the NY rally
US midterm results from 23:00 UTC are an overnight USD risk
V-reversal from 1.3950 London low; higher-low chain under 1.3998 session high.
London broke below the Asian range low (1.3967) to 1.3950. A sharp reversal from 12:00 UTC then carried price through the Asian high, and NY tagged a 1.3998 session high before rejection just under the 1.4000 psych. Higher lows at the 1.3970 swing low, the 1.3980 fib 38.2 and a 1.3984 higher low keep the micro uptrend intact, with RSI(14) near 63 into JOLTS/Ivey this bar and Macklem at 16:00 UTC.
Support: 1.3984, 1.3980, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.3998, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4000 psych clears the session high rejection
Break of the 1.3984 higher low and the rising lows trendline ends the HH/HL chain
Loss of the 1.3970 swing low opens the fib 50% near 1.3974 and below
JOLTS/Ivey PMI (15:00 UTC) and Macklem (16:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Midterm results from 23:00 UTC are an overnight USD volatility risk
Higher low after London false break, capped below Asian high.
London broke below the Asian range to a 1.3950 London low, then the move fully reversed. The rally through the London-NY transition printed a higher low at 1.3970 and a 1.3990 session high, which stalled under the 1.3996 Asian high. Price is easing back to 1.3980 ahead of US data and Macklem, with oil and Iran headlines keeping CAD firm per the digest.
Support: 1.3970, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.39895, 1.39962, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3996 Asian high puts the 1.4000 round number in play
Loss of the 1.3970 higher low turns the rally into a lower-high sequence back toward the 1.3950 London low
JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and Macklem at 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read; midterm results from ~23:00 UTC are the overnight risk
14:31 UTC
Intraday rebound off 1.3950, stalling under 1.3990 · RSI 61 · price 1.39827
V-reversal from double bottom; HH/HL chain since 12:00 UTC, back inside Asian range.
The oil-led London slide swept yesterday's 1.3951 low into a 1.3950 double bottom. The early-NY rally reclaimed the Asian low at 1.3979 and printed a higher low at 1.3970, but the 14:00 UTC bar left a rejection wick at the 1.3990 session high, with RSI(14) cooling to about 61.
Support: 1.3979, 1.3970, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3990, 1.3996, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3990 session high puts the 1.3996 Asian high and 1.4000 psych cap in play
Loss of the 1.3979 Asian low and the 1.3970 higher low breaks the HH/HL chain and the rally trendline
Return to the 1.3950 double btm reopens the session lows
JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and Macklem at 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Midterm results from ~23:00 UTC are the overnight USD risk
14:16 UTC
V-shaped intraday recovery, higher low in place · RSI 64 · price 1.39827
False break below Asian range reclaimed, pressing range top.
London broke the Asian range low and slipped under the prior-day low to a london low at 1.3950. A sharp reversal into the London-NY transition, as USD firmed off session lows, put in a higher low at 1.3970 and an NY high at 1.3990, just under the 1.3996 Asian high and the 1.4000 psych cap. RSI(14) is near 64 and the latest bar shows a mild rejection off the NY high.
Support: 1.39704, 1.39498
Resistance: 1.39895, 1.39962, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3996 asian high puts the 1.4000 psych cap in play
Loss of the 1.3970 higher low (50% of the NY rally fib) breaks the recovery structure
Return below the 1.3950 london low would reverse the false-break read
JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and Macklem at 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC are an overnight volatility risk
V-recovery after sweep of Monday low, higher low at 1.3970.
London broke below the Asian range to a 1.3950 session low, briefly undercutting Monday's 1.3951 low, then rejection from there drove a 36-pip squeeze into the NY open. Price has cleared the 1.3982 prior high and is pressing toward the 1.3996 Asian high with RSI(14) near 66, despite oil-led CAD firmness capping the pair through Asia and London.
Support: 1.3982, 1.3970, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3996, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3996 Asian high puts the 1.4000 round number cap in play
Failure to hold the 1.3970 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and reopens the 1.3950 session low
JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and Macklem at 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC are the overnight USD risk
Lower highs from the Asian high; double bottom at 1.3950, NY rebound stalling near the 61.8% retrace.
London extended the oil-driven slide from the 1.3996 Asian high, briefly breaking below the 1.3958 london low. Price then posted a false break of yesterday's 1.3951 low, forming a double bottom at 1.3950, before a 30-pip squeeze into the NY open capped at the 1.3982 NY high near the 61.8% retrace. Price is holding above the 1.3970 pullback low and both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 55.
Support: 1.3970, 1.3958, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3982, 1.3996, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.3970 pullback low exposes the 1.3958 london low and the 1.3950 double bottom
Break of the 1.3982 NY high reopens the 1.3996 Asian high and the 1.4000 round number
JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and BoC's Macklem at 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Iran or oil headlines remain the main swing factor for CAD intraday
24h range 1.3950–1.3996; London false break below prior low reversed.
London extended below the Asian range as oil-backed CAD firmness pushed USDCAD to 1.3950, a marginal undercut of Monday's 1.3951 swing low that reversed into a 30-pip rebound to 1.3982 into the NY open. Price is now holding 1.3970–1.3980, with the pullback low sitting at the 38.2% of the rebound and RSI(14) neutral at 55.
Support: 1.3970, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3982, 1.3996
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.3970 pullback low (38.2% of the rebound) exposes the 1.3950 swing low again
M15 close above the 1.3982 rebound high puts the 1.3996 Asian high and 1.4000 back in play
US JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and BoC Macklem at 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC are the overnight USD risk
Asian low broken in London, session low swept and reclaimed, rebound capped near 61.8%.
London broke the 1.3967 asian low and slid to a 1.3950 session low, tracking firmer crude and briefly undercutting Monday's 1.3951 low, before a 32-pip rebound into the NY open. That rebound printed a 1.3982 rebound high just above the 61.8% of the London leg and was rejected. Price is back inside the Asian range above EMA20/50 with RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 1.3967, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3982, 1.3996
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3982 rebound high opens the 1.3996 asian high
Close back below the 1.3967 asian low puts the 1.3950 session low back in play
JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and BoC's Macklem at 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs off Asian high broken; 1.3950 low swept and reclaimed.
London ground lower from the 1.3996 asian high. It swept yesterday's low to a 1.3950 swing low, then reversed 32 pips into the 1.3982 ny high ahead of NY, breaking the descending line as USD firmed on Iran headlines. Early NY is holding above the ema20 near 1.3967, with the ny high capping just above the 61.8% retracement.
Support: 1.3967, 1.3958, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3982, 1.3996, 1.4000
What it said to watch
A close back below the 1.3958 london low undercuts the reversal and puts the 1.3950 swing low back in play
A close above the 1.3982 ny high opens the 1.3996 asian high and the 1.4000 round number
US JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and BoC Macklem at 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
12:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend interrupted by a sharp V-reversal · RSI 62 · price 1.39814
Sweep of the 24h low, then a break of the London lower high; price testing the session high.
The Asia-to-London slide from the 1.3996 Asian high swept yesterday's 1.3951 low, printing a 24h low at 1.3950. Price then reversed about 32 pips into the London-NY transition, clearing the 1.3974 swing pivot and breaking the downtrend line. It is now pressing the 1.3982 session high, past the 61.8% of the Asian high–low fib, with RSI(14) near 62. The reversal runs against the oil-driven CAD firmness in the digest, with the 1.40 psych cap still overhead.
Support: 1.39743, 1.39576, 1.39498
Resistance: 1.39818, 1.39962, 1.4000
What it said to watch
Holding above the 1.3974 swing pivot keeps the lower-high break intact; a slip back below reopens the 1.3958 london low
Acceptance above the 1.3982 session high exposes the 1.3996 asian high and the 1.4000 psych cap
A close back below the 1.3950 24h low would turn the sweep into downtrend continuation
US JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and Macklem at 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Asian high broken; false break below prior low at 1.3950, now testing 61.8% fib.
London extended below the Asian low to a 1.3950 session low, briefly undercutting yesterday's 1.3951 trough. A 28-pip reversal in the last half hour then reclaimed the 1.3974 london high and broke the descending trendline. Price is now pressing the 61.8% fib of the 1.3996–1.3950 drop at 1.3979, RSI(14) 58, as the crude-driven CAD bid flagged in the digest stalls ahead of the NY open.
Support: 1.3974, 1.3958, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3979, 1.3996, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3979 61.8% fib opens the asian high at 1.3996 and the 1.40 round number
Slip back below the 1.3974 london high returns focus to the 1.3958 london lows and the 1.3950 session low
US JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and BoC Governor Macklem at 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
12:16 UTC
Downtrend from Asia high, bounce off session low · RSI 50 · price 1.39647
Lower highs since 1.3996, session low swept then rejected.
London broke the Asian low at 1.3967 and extended to a session low at 1.3950. That low briefly undercut yesterday's 1.3951 post-ISM low before a 12-pip rejection bar, with firmer crude keeping CAD supported. Late London has price pressing back toward the Asian low and the fib 38.2% from beneath, with lower highs still intact from the 1.3996 Asia high.
Support: 1.3958, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3967, 1.3974, 1.3996
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.3967 Asian low (fib 38.2%) turns it into support and puts the 1.3974 London high and the descending trendline in play
Failure to hold the 1.3958 London low, then a close below the 1.3950 session low, confirms a lower-low
JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and Macklem at 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
12:02 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 38 · price 1.39544
Lower-high/lower-low chain, pressing Monday low.
London broke the Asian range low near 1.3967 and extended the slide from the 1.3996 Asia high. The pair cleared the early-London low at 1.3958 and is now retesting Monday's low at 1.3951, with an 1.3950 print, as CAD tracks firmer crude on renewed US-Iran hostilities. The lower-high sequence is intact, capped at 1.3974, and RSI(14) near 38 is not stretched.
Support: 1.3951, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3958, 1.39743, 1.39962
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3950 monday low exposes the 1.3941 7-wk low
Reclaim of the 1.3958 london low would mark the Monday-low retest as a hold
M15 close above the 1.3974 lower high breaks the descending lower-high line and ends the downtrend read; the 50% retrace of the Asia high leg sits at the same level
JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and BoC Macklem at 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
11:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 36 · price 1.39517
Lower highs and lower lows below the Asian range, now testing the prior NY low.
The fade from the 1.3996 Asian high carried into London. Price broke the Asian range low, capped at the 1.3974 London high and is now pressing yesterday's 1.3951 NY low, with RSI(14) near 36. CAD firmness on crude keeps the 1.3941 7-week low close by.
Support: 1.39511, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.39576, 1.39743, 1.39962
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3951 NY low exposes the 1.3941 7-week low
Reclaim of the 1.3958 London low, then 1.3974 London high, breaks the lower-high sequence toward the 1.3996 Asian high
JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and Macklem at 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
11:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 41 · price 1.39559
Lower highs from 1.3996 Asia high; London range 1.3955-1.3974 broken marginally lower.
USDCAD has printed lower highs since the 1.3996 Asia high. London capped rallies at the 1.3974 london high twice before slipping to a 1.3955 session low, with oil-driven CAD demand persisting. Price now sits just above Monday's 1.3951 prior low, with RSI(14) near 41 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 1.3955, 1.3951, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3974, 1.3996
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3951 prior low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.3941 7wk low
Recovery above the 1.3974 london high breaks the lower-highs trendline from the asia high
JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and Macklem at 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Oil reversal on US-Iran headlines could lift USDCAD back off the session low
LH/LL sequence since the Asian high, Asian range broken lower in London.
London extended the slide from the 1.3996 Asian high, breaking the 1.3967 Asian low and printing a fresh session low at 1.3955 after two lower highs near 1.3973-74. Oil-driven CAD firmness has price pressing toward yesterday's 1.3951 prior low, with the 1.3941 7-week low just beneath. RSI(14) near 42 is not stretched.
Support: 1.39548, 1.39511, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.39673, 1.39743, 1.39962
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3951 prior low exposes the 1.3941 7-week low
Reclaim of the 1.3967 Asian low, then a close above the 1.3974 lower high, breaks the LH/LL chain
JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and Macklem at 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
11:02 UTC
Downtrend from the Asian high, flattening into a range · RSI 44 · price 1.39595
Lower highs off 1.3996; London range 1.3958–1.3974 with price back at the floor.
USD/CAD broke the Asian range low at London open as firmer oil lifted CAD. Since then it has ranged between the 1.3958 London low and the 1.3974 range top. That top sits at the 38.2% retracement of the drop from the 1.3996 Asian high, and the lower-highs line from that high is still capping rallies.
Support: 1.3958, 1.3951
Resistance: 1.3974, 1.3996
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3958 London low exposes the 1.3951 prior low (yesterday's NY low)
Close above the 1.3974 range top and the lower-highs line negates the downtrend read; the asian high at 1.3996 is next above
JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and Macklem at 16:00 UTC could break the London range in either direction
10:46 UTC
Downtrend from Asian high, stalling in London range · RSI 46 · price 1.39645
Lower highs since Asia; London range 1.3958–1.3974.
Firmer CAD on the oil rebound and renewed US-Iran hostilities pulled USD/CAD from the 1.3996 Asian high to a 1.3958 London low. London has since held a 1.3958–1.3974 range. The push to the 1.3974 London high was rejected below the 50% fib, and price sits mid-range under EMA20 with RSI near 46.
Support: 1.39576, 1.39511
Resistance: 1.39743, 1.39962
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3958 london low exposes the 1.3951 monday low and the 1.3941 seven-week low
M15 close above the 1.3974 london high and the 50% fib near 1.3977 breaks the London range, with the 1.3996 asian high next above
JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and BoC Macklem at 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
10:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, stabilising off London lows · RSI 53 · price 1.39699
Lower highs from the Asian high; twin lows at 1.3958 with the rebound capped near 1.3974.
The Asian high at 1.3996 faded on firmer CAD as oil rebounded. London open broke the asian low to 1.3958, but the twin London lows at 1.3958/1.3959 held above yesterday's prior low at 1.3951. Price is back near the asian low at 1.3967, and the rebound is stalling at the 1.3974 london high, around the 38.2% retrace of the Asian high to London low drop.
Support: 1.39673, 1.39576, 1.39511
Resistance: 1.39743, 1.39962
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3974 london high completes the double bottom and opens 1.3977-1.3982 (50-61.8% retrace)
Failure to hold the 1.3967 asian low turns the break below it back into a genuine one
A break below the 1.3958 london low exposes the 1.3951 prior low, then the 1.3941 seven-week low
US JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and Macklem's speech at 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian high at 1.3996 caps the session range
10:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend from Asian high, basing · RSI 51 · price 1.39724
Lower highs since 1.3996; London double bottom at 1.3958, price back inside the Asian range.
Mid-London, USDCAD broke below the 1.3967 Asian low and printed a double bottom at the 1.3958 London low. Price has reclaimed the Asian range and is pressing the 1.3974 London high at the 38.2% fib of the Asian high-to-London low drop. The decline from the 1.3996 Asian high tracked firmer oil and CAD. RSI(14) is neutral near 51 and ATR(14) is about 5.7 pips.
Support: 1.39673, 1.39576, 1.39511
Resistance: 1.39743, 1.39842, 1.39962
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3974 London high confirms the double bottom and opens the 1.3984 lower high near the 61.8% fib
Failure to hold the 1.3967 Asian low turns the reclaim into a failed one and brings the 1.3958 London low and 1.3951 prior low back into view
The 1.3996 Asian high sits just under the 1.4000 cap that held on Monday
JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and Macklem at 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read during NY hours
Since the 1.3996 Asia high, an oil-led softer USD has set lower highs. Early London broke the 1.3967 asian low, but buyers stepped in twice at the 1.3958 london low (07:30 and 09:30 UTC). Mid-London, price is back at 1.3971, pressing the falling trendline and just under the 1.3973 session high. RSI(14) is neutral near 52 and ATR is about 5.4 pips.
Support: 1.39673, 1.39576, 1.39511
Resistance: 1.39733, 1.39962
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3973 session high (38.2% fib) confirms the double bottom and clears the falling trendline
Slip back below the 1.3967 asian low keeps the lower-high sequence intact
Failure at the 1.3958 london low exposes the 1.3951 monday low
JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and Macklem at 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the Asian high; London broke the Asian range low and is holding a 1.3958 floor.
USDCAD peaked at the 1.3996 Asian high and has since printed lower highs. London open broke below the Asian low near 1.3967, with the London low at 1.3958 holding twice and a lower high capping at 1.3973. The softer USD tone on oil and US-Iran headlines frames the drift; RSI(14) sits near 42 with price under both EMAs, and the Monday low at 1.3951 is the next floor.
Support: 1.39576, 1.39511
Resistance: 1.39673, 1.39733, 1.39962
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 1.3967 asian low and the 1.3973 london high breaks the lower-highs line
Failure to hold the 1.3958 london low exposes the 1.3951 monday low
JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and Macklem at 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
US midterm results overnight are a USD risk for the Asian range
09:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 42 · price 1.39637
Asian range low broken in London, bounce capped at 38.2%.
London open broke below the Asian range low near 1.3967 and printed a 1.3958 london low. This extends the lower-high line from the 1.3996 asian high, with USD heavy on softer oil and yields. The rebound to the 1.3973 bounce high stalled at the 38.2% fib and the broken Asian low, a retest-and-rejection, with RSI(14) near 42 and price under both EMAs.
Support: 1.39576, 1.39511
Resistance: 1.39733, 1.39962
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3973 bounce high and the lower-high trendline invalidates the intraday downtrend read
Failure to hold the 1.3958 london low exposes Monday's NY low at 1.3951 (monday low)
JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and BoC Macklem at 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Only a recovery through the 1.3996 asian high would erase the overnight lower-high sequence
Lower highs from 1.3996 Asian high; London broke below the Asian range, now higher lows off 1.3958.
London open broke below the 1.3979–1.3996 Asian range to 1.3958, holding above Monday's 1.3951 prior low. The bounce on rising lows stalled at the 1.3973 session high, the 38.2% retrace of the Asian high to London low drop, as firmer oil keeps USD heavy.
Support: 1.3958, 1.3951
Resistance: 1.3973, 1.3979, 1.3996
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.3979 Asian low reopens the Asian range and weakens the lower-high read
Break of the rising lows and the 1.3958 London low puts the 1.3951 prior low in play
JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and Macklem at 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.3996 Asian high; Asian range low broken at London open, tight 1.3958–1.3969 base since.
USDCAD slid from the 1.3996 Asian high and broke the Asian low at 1.3967 at London open, with oil-driven CAD firmness keeping the pair under 1.4000. The London low at 1.3958 has held so far, and price is basing at 1.3958–1.3969 under the falling trendline, with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 1.39576, 1.39511
Resistance: 1.39673, 1.39735, 1.39962
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.3967 asian low, then the 1.3974 lower high, breaks the lower-high chain and the trendline
Failure to hold the 1.3958 london low exposes Monday's prior low at 1.3951
JOLTS 15:00 UTC and BoC's Macklem 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
A fib 38.2% retrace near 1.3972 lines up with the lower high
Lower highs from the Asian high; London broke below the Asian range low.
Lower highs since the 1.3996 asian high carried price through the 1.3967 asian low at London open, printing a 1.3958 london low as oil's rebound kept CAD firm. Early London is now retesting the broken asian low from beneath, with the 06:45 swing high at 1.3974 lining up with the 38.2% retrace of the asian high-to-london low move.
Support: 1.39576, 1.39511
Resistance: 1.39673, 1.39735, 1.39962
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.3967 asian low reopens the Asian range and neutralises the break
A push through the 1.3974 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure below the 1.3958 london low exposes yesterday's 1.3951 prior low
JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and Macklem at 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since 1.3996 Asia peak; London broke Asian range low.
Lower highs have stepped down from the 1.3996 Asian high, and the London open broke the 1.3967 Asian low to print a 1.3958 London low as firmer oil supports CAD. The bounce has stalled just under the old Asian low and the 23.6% fib, with the descending trendline from the Asian high capping at roughly 1.3966. The prior low at 1.3950 sits roughly a pip below the session floor.
Support: 1.39576, 1.39499
Resistance: 1.39673, 1.39735, 1.39962
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.3967 Asian low and the trendline would neutralise the London range break
Close above the 1.3974 lower high would break the lower-high sequence and bring the 38.2% fib at 1.3972 back into play
Failure to hold the 1.3958 London low exposes the 1.3950 prior low
JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and Macklem at 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read; midterm results remain a USD risk
08:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 30 · price 1.39618
Lower-high chain; London open broke below the Asian range.
Sellers capped every bounce after the 1.3996 Asian high. London open broke the 1.3967 Asian low and printed a 1.3958 London low, with price now holding near the 78.6% NY rally fib and RSI(14) around 30. Crude's Asia rebound and the soft-USD tone in the digest line up with the CAD-led slide toward the 1.3950 Monday low.
Support: 1.39576, 1.39499
Resistance: 1.39673, 1.39735, 1.39962
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.3958 London low exposes the 1.3950 Monday low
A close back above the 1.3967 Asian low, then the 1.3974 lower high and the lower-high line, invalidates the range-break read
JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and Macklem at 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Oil/Iran headlines remain the dominant CAD driver through the session
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asian high; London broke below the Asian range.
USDCAD has carved lower highs off the 1.3996 Asian high, and London open broke the 1.3967 Asian low to tag 1.3958. The digest ties this to a softer USD and crude firming in Asia. Price is stalling just above the London low with RSI(14) near 32, and the 1.3950 prior low sits beneath.
Support: 1.39576, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.39673, 1.39735, 1.39962
What it said to watch
Recovery back above the 1.3967 Asian low would neutralise the range break
M15 close above the 1.3974 lower high breaks the descending trendline and the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 1.3958 London low exposes the 1.3950 prior low
JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and Macklem at 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
07:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 28 · price 1.39631
LH/LL chain from 1.3996 Asia high, pressing toward Monday low.
The 1.3996 Asia high was rejected just under the 1.40 round number. A chain of lower highs followed into London open, which extended to a 1.3958 London low with RSI(14) near 28. CAD firmed as crude rebounded toward $95.80 alongside a softer USD, and the 1.3950 Monday low is the next floor below.
Support: 1.39576, 1.39499
Resistance: 1.39735, 1.39962, 1.4000
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.3974 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence from the Asia high
Failure to hold the 1.3950 Monday low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.3941 Friday low
JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and Macklem at 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Oil headlines on US-Iran talks remain the main intraday driver of CAD
07:31 UTC
Downtrend, extending at London open · RSI 21 · price 1.39597
Lower highs and lower lows from the Asian high; Asian range low broken.
London open extended the steady slide from the 1.3996 Asian high, breaking the 1.3967 Asian low to a 1.3959 session low. Lower highs are intact and RSI(14) sits near 21. The softer USD on oil and Iran-deal headlines is the backdrop, with Monday's prior low at 1.3950–1.3951 just beneath.
Support: 1.39587, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.39673, 1.39962
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 1.3967 asian low would turn the range break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.3950 prior low (Monday's London and ISM-hour double low) confirms a fresh lower-low
An M15 close above the lower-highs line near 1.3973 breaks the descending sequence
JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and Macklem at 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
07:16 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 25 · price 1.39648
LH/LL chain from 1.3996, Asian range low broken.
Steady lower highs from the 1.3996 Asian high. The 07:00 UTC bar, ahead of London open, broke the Asian range low near 1.3967 and printed a session low at 1.3963, with RSI(14) at 25 as the crude rebound toward $95.80 lifts CAD. Yesterday's prior lows around 1.3950 sit next below, with the descending trendline capping at the 1.3974 lower high.
Support: 1.3963, 1.3950, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.39735, 1.3980, 1.3996
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3974 lower high breaks the descending trendline and the lower-high chain
50% retrace of the Asian high-to-low move at 1.3980 marks the upper edge of the current leg
Failure to hold the 1.3950 prior lows exposes the 1.3941 wedge base
JOLTS 15:00 UTC and Macklem 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs off the Asian high, basing at the Asian low.
The Asian high at 1.3996 printed around 02:15 UTC, and price then stepped lower in a chain of lower highs into London open as the overnight crude rebound toward $95.80 lifted CAD. Price is sitting on the 1.3967 Asian low, near the 61.8% retracement of Monday's NY rally off the 1.3950 Monday low, with ATR compressed to ~3.5 pips.
Support: 1.3967, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.39735, 1.3984, 1.3996
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3967 Asian low extends the lower-high sequence toward the 1.3950 Monday low
Reclaim of the 1.39735 lower high and the falling trendline breaks the intraday downtrend; the 1.3984 swing high and 1.3996 Asian high sit above
US JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and Macklem at 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asian high; overnight 1.3980–1.3996 band broken lower.
Late Asia session: price has faded steadily from the 1.3996 asian high set at 02:15 UTC. It printed lower highs at 1.3991 and 1.3984, then broke below the 1.3980 breakdown shelf that framed the post-rollover range. It is now sitting on a fresh asian low at 1.3967, a shelf that also held during Monday's NY pullbacks, with RSI(14) near 23 and the overnight oil rebound toward $95.80 lending CAD a modest lift into London open.
Support: 1.39673, 1.39499
Resistance: 1.3980, 1.39962, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.3980 breakdown level, or through the descending lower-highs line, invalidates the intraday downtrend read
Failure to hold the 1.3967 asian low exposes Monday low near 1.3950, the double low from London and the ISM-hour flush
A London-session push back to the 1.3996 asian high and 1.4000 round number would put the pair back at the top of the 1.3941–1.3990 band
JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and Macklem at 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
06:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since the Asia peak · RSI 25 · price 1.39687
Asian range broken to the downside, lower-high chain into the London open.
Asia faded from the 1.3996 Asian high in a steady lower-high sequence. The pair broke the 1.3979 Asian low around 05:00 UTC and is now pinned near the 1.3967 session low into the London open. CAD is drawing a modest lift from crude's rebound toward $95.80, and RSI(14) near 25 shows the slide is stretched on this timeframe.
Support: 1.39673, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.39791, 1.39842, 1.39962
What it said to watch
A failure to hold the 1.3967 session low exposes the 1.3950 prior low, yesterday's double-tap base from London and the ISM hour.
A reclaim of the 1.3979 Asian low and then the 1.3984 lower high breaks the descending trendline and neutralises the lower-high read.
JOLTS and Factory Orders at 15:00 UTC, then Macklem at 16:00 UTC, could materially shift this read.
US midterm results overnight could add a fresh volatility spike.
06:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since 02:15 UTC · RSI 26 · price 1.39698
LH/LL chain below broken Asia base, pressing session low.
Asia stalled at a 1.3996 session high just short of the 1.40 psych handle. Since then the pair has printed lower highs, broken the 1.3980 asia base and set a fresh session low at 1.3967 into the London open, with CAD firming as crude steadied near $95.80. RSI(14) is cooling at 26 and ATR is a tight 3.7 pips. Yesterday's 1.3950 prior low, a double test from the London and NY sessions, sits about 20 pips below.
Support: 1.39673, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3980, 1.39962, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.3980 asia base, the 38.2% fib zone, negates the lower-low sequence
Failure to hold the 1.3967 session low exposes the 1.3950 prior low
A break of the descending trendline from the 1.3996 session high would end the LH chain
US JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and Macklem at 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read later today
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.3996 Asian high; Asian low broken.
Asia faded from the 1.3996 Asian high in a steady lower-high chain. Price broke the 1.3979 Asian low as crude's overnight rebound toward $95.80 lifted CAD, and is sitting at the 1.3969 session low into London open with RSI(14) at 28. The 1.3984 lower high and the descending trendline from the session high have capped each bounce.
Support: 1.3969, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3979, 1.3984, 1.3996
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.3979 asian low negates the Asian range break
Failure to hold the 1.3969 session low exposes the 1.3950 prior low, tested twice yesterday
Close above the 1.3984 lower high and the lower-high trendline ends the sequence, with the 1.3996 Asian high next
Fib of the session high-low leg puts 38.2-61.8% at 1.3980-1.3986, overlapping the asian low and lower high
JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and Macklem at 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
05:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend off the Asian high · RSI 31 · price 1.39696
Lower highs and lower lows since 1.3996, Asian low broken.
Asia briefly pushed above Monday's 1.3994 high to an Asian high of 1.3996. That false break faded about 27 pips in a chain of lower highs and lower lows as crude's rebound toward $95.80 lifted CAD. Late in the Asia session price has cut through the Asian low at 1.3979 and sits on the fib 61.8 of Monday's 1.3951–1.3996 rally, with RSI(14) near 31 heading into London open.
Support: 1.3968, 1.3951
Resistance: 1.3979, 1.3996
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the fib 61.8 at 1.3968 exposes the Monday low at 1.3951
M15 close back above the asian low at 1.3979 and the falling trendline negates the lower-high sequence
JOLTS (15:00 UTC) and Macklem (16:00 UTC) during NY hours could materially shift this read
05:31 UTC
Intraday pullback inside a wider range · RSI 34 · price 1.39735
Lower highs from the Asia high, testing the 50% retrace of the NY rally.
Asia session saw a rejection at the 1.3996 asia high, just shy of 1.40. Since then the pair has printed lower highs, with the latest lower high at 1.3984, back to 1.3973, the 50% retrace of yesterday's NY rally off the 1.3951 day low, with the 1.3970 ny pivot just below. Price is below both EMAs, RSI(14) is near 34 and ATR is about 4 pips into London open, still inside the 1.3950–1.3996 range as oil swings offset a softer USD.
Support: 1.3970, 1.3951
Resistance: 1.3984, 1.3996
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3970 ny pivot extends the lower-high sequence toward the 1.3951 day low
Reclaim of the 1.3984 lower high breaks the trendline and neutralises the pullback read
Break of the 1.3996 asia high and the 1.40 round number invalidates the range read
Macklem at 16:00 UTC, with JOLTS at 15:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
05:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend from the Asia high · RSI 35 · price 1.3976
Lower highs and lower lows since 1.3996; overnight low at 1.3979 giving way.
The Asia session has faded from the 1.3996 high in a chain of lower highs, and price is now pressing just below the 1.3979 Asia low late in the session, with RSI(14) near 35. The drop is retracing Monday's NY rally off the 1.3950 Monday low, a rally driven by oil weakness that weighed on CAD. The 50% fib at 1.3974 and the 1.3967 swing low sit directly below.
Support: 1.3974, 1.3967, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3979, 1.3984, 1.3996
What it said to watch
Holding below the 1.3979 Asia low keeps the lower-high sequence intact into London open
A reclaim of the 1.3984 lower high would break the Asia trendline and neutralise the fade
Losing the 1.3967 swing low (61.8% fib zone) exposes the 1.3950 Monday low
US JOLTS/Factory Orders at 15:00 UTC and Macklem at 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read; midterm headlines add event risk
05:02 UTC
Intraday pullback inside a 24h range · RSI 36 · price 1.39794
Lower highs off the Asian high, testing Asian low.
Late Asia session has faded from the 1.3996 Asian high in a chain of lower highs. Price is retesting the 1.3978 Asian low, which sits on the 38.2% fib of the NY rally off the 1.3950 day low, with soft-USD oil/Iran flows and a firm CAD keeping the 1.3950–1.4000 range intact.
Support: 1.39782, 1.39695, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.39842, 1.39962, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3978 Asian low exposes the 1.3970 swing low, then the 1.3950 day low double base
Close above the 1.3984 lower high breaks the descending line and neutralises the pullback; 1.3996 Asian high and 1.4000 psych above
US midterm results, JOLTS/Factory Orders at 15:00 UTC and Macklem at 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
04:46 UTC
Short-term downtrend inside a broader intraday range · RSI 37 · price 1.3981
Lower highs since the Asian session high, testing the Asian low.
The Asian session rejected 1.3996, just shy of the 1.40 round number. It then printed a chain of lower highs, with the latest at 1.3984, down to a 1.3978 Asian low. That low sits on the 38.2% retracement of the 1.3951–1.3996 rally, and RSI(14) is near 37 with price below both EMAs as CAD firms with crude's overnight rebound.
Support: 1.3978, 1.3970, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3984, 1.3996, 1.4000
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.3978 Asian low opens the 1.3970 NY swing low and the 50% rally fib near 1.3974.
Loss of 1.3970 brings the 1.3950 prior low back into view; that floor held twice during London and NY hours.
A reclaim of the 1.3984 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 1.3996 Asian high and 1.40 round number back in play.
US midterm results through the Asia and London sessions, and Macklem at 16:00 UTC, could materially shift this read.
Double bottom at 1.3950 broke the 1.3989 neckline; late-Asia pullback now testing the asian low.
Lows at 1.3950 in London and 1.3951 after the 15:00 UTC ISM print formed a double bottom. Price cleared the 1.3989 neckline even as oil-led USD softness weighed, then stalled at the 1.3996 asian high below the 1.40 round number. The late-Asia pullback found the 1.3978 asian low at the 38.2% fib, with RSI(14) at 39 and price just under both EMAs ahead of London open.
Support: 1.3978, 1.3974, 1.3951
Resistance: 1.3989, 1.3996, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3978 asian low puts the 50% fib at 1.3974 and the 1.3951 double btm in play
Reclaim of the 1.3989 neckline and a break of the 1.3996 asian high exposes the 1.40 round number
JOLTS/Factory Orders at 15:00 UTC and Macklem at 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
US midterm headlines and WTI swings on Iran talks remain live drivers through the session
04:16 UTC
Intraday range, short-term pullback from session high · RSI 41 · price 1.39806
Asia-session lower highs off 1.3996; testing Asian low inside 1.3951–1.3996 range.
Asia session ran to 1.3996 but met rejection just short of the 1.4000 round number. It has since unwound to the Asian low at 1.3978, which sits on the 38.2% fib of the NY-Asia rally. Yesterday's oil-driven chop built a 1.3951–1.3996 range, and the yday low held as a double bottom; price is now below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 1.3978, 1.3970, 1.3951
Resistance: 1.3996, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3978 Asian low and 38.2% fib exposes the 1.3970 swing low and 61.8% retracement
Loss of 1.3951 yday low breaks the double bottom and the range floor
Close above 1.3996 Asian high puts the 1.4000 round number back in play
US midterm results flowing from ~05:00 UTC could materially shift this read via safe-haven USD flows
Lower highs since Asian high, testing Asian range low.
The Asian session push stalled at the 1.3996 asian high, level with Monday's late high and just under 1.4000. It has since fully unwound to the 1.3979 asian low, which also marks the 38.2% fib of Monday's 1.3951–1.3996 NY recovery. Price is printing lower highs since 02:15 UTC with RSI(14) near 34 and sits below EMA20/50 into the London open, while CAD holds firm near the 1.3941–1.3990 band on a hawkish BoC and oil swings.
Support: 1.3979, 1.3970, 1.3951
Resistance: 1.3991, 1.3996, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3979 asian low exposes the 1.3970 swing low and the 50% fib at 1.3974
Failure to hold 1.3970 brings the 1.3951 monday low back into view
Recovery above the 1.3991 lower high reopens the 1.3996 asian high and the 1.4000 psych level
US midterm results from ~05:00 UTC and oil/Iran headlines could materially shift this read
Macklem speaks at 16:00 UTC: a December-hike signal or a growth-concern tone could break the range
03:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pausing below Asian high · RSI 53 · price 1.39864
Higher lows off the 1.3950 double bottom; late-Asia pullback toward 1.3984.
A double bottom at 1.3950 from Monday's London and NY lows, with the NY flush tracking oil and USD swings on Iran headlines, fed a higher-low climb into Asia. The Asian high at 1.3996 is capping just shy of the 1.4000 round number. Late in the Asia session, price is easing back to the 1.3984 pullback low near the 23.6% fib, with RSI(14) neutral near 53 and ATR about 4.5 pips.
Support: 1.39844, 1.39791, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.39962, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3979 asian low (38.2% fib) breaks the higher-low sequence
Close above the 1.3996 asian high and the 1.4000 round number extends the HH chain
US midterm results from ~05:00 UTC could materially shift this read before London open
A return to the 1.3950 double bottom would put the whole recovery leg in question
Double bottom at 1.3951, higher lows; Asian range 1.3979–1.3996.
London's twin lows at 1.3951 formed a double bottom, the second during the ISM print, which the market ignored. The NY rally then built a higher lows chain to 1.3994. Asia has held a 1.3979–1.3996 range, with the asian low sitting on the 38.2% of that NY rally, and the asian high capping price just shy of the 1.40 round number as Qeshm headlines lift oil.
Support: 1.3979, 1.3951
Resistance: 1.3996, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3996 asian high and 1.40 round number breaks the Asian range to the upside
Loss of the 1.3979 asian low breaks the higher lows trendline and exposes the 1.3951 double bottom
US midterm election headlines from 05:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Escalation in Qeshm strike headlines and the WTI reaction is the main swing factor for the pair
Macklem at 16:00 UTC is the next CAD-side catalyst
Higher lows off 1.3950 double low; Asian session pressing session highs.
The 1.3950 double low from the London open and the 15:00 UTC ISM dip held. Since then the pair has built higher lows, and the late-NY push extended into a 1.3996 Asian high just shy of the 1.4000 round number. Price is now sitting on rising support near 1.3988, with the 1.3979 Asian low matching the 38.2% fib of the ny-asia leg.
Support: 1.3979, 1.3970, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3996, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4000 round number extends the higher-high chain beyond the 1.3996 Asian high
Loss of rising support and the 1.3979 Asian low would break the higher-low sequence and expose the 1.3970 swing low (61.8% fib)
A move back below the 1.3950 double low negates the double bottom
Fresh Qeshm/Hormuz headlines feeding through oil, and US midterm polls opening at 05:00 UTC, could shift this read
Higher lows off 1.3950 double bottom, price mid Asian range.
The 1.3950 double bottom from the London and NY lows built a chain of higher lows at 1.3970 and the 1.3979 Asian low. Asia set an Asian high at 1.3996 as the Qeshm strike headlines hit, then stalled short of the 1.4000 round number. Price is now easing onto the ema20 near 1.3989 with RSI(14) neutral around 55.
Support: 1.39791, 1.39695, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.39962, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4000 round number clears the Asian high and the 1.3941–1.3990 band
Break of the 1.3979 Asian low (38.2% fib) undercuts rising support, with the 1.3970 higher low next
Loss of 1.3950 negates the double bottom recovery structure
US midterm results flowing from Tue and Macklem at 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain off twin lows near 1.3950, Asia pressing session high.
Twin lows near 1.3950, one in London and one in the 15:00 UTC drop, set the base. The NY recovery then built a higher-low chain along rising support. Asia is extending it to a session high at 1.3996, just under the 1.4000 round number, with RSI(14) near 61, despite the digest's soft-USD, lower-oil backdrop.
Support: 1.3985, 1.3979, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3996, 1.4000
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.4000 round number extends the higher-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.3985 swing low, then the 1.3979 asian low, breaks the rising support read
US midterm voting from 05:00 UTC could materially shift USD flows during this window
Rejection at the 1.3996 session high would leave a range between the twin lows and 1.4000
Higher lows off the 1.3951 double bottom; fresh Asian high just above the NY high.
The day low at 1.3951 held twice, during London and again in the NY session, forming a double bottom. Price has since carved higher lows along a rising trendline. Early Asia session has edged to a new Asian high at 1.3996, marginally clearing the NY high, with RSI(14) near 58 and a 3.9-pip ATR reflecting thin Asian conditions under the 1.4000 round number, as CAD stays firm against a soft USD.
Support: 1.39852, 1.39791, 1.39511
Resistance: 1.39962, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4000 round number extends the uptrend from the double bottom
Failure to hold the 1.3985 swing low exposes the 1.3979 Asian low, which sits at the 38.2% fib
Break of the higher-low trendline below the Asian low would put the 1.3951 day low back in focus
US midterms (from 05:00 UTC) and Macklem at 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
02:16 UTC
Recovering from 1.3950, pressing range top · RSI 61 · price 1.39931
Range 1.3979–1.3995 since NY afternoon, testing the NY high.
USDCAD built a double bottom at the 1.3950 London low, which was retested around the 15:00 UTC ISM print, then recovered through NY as sliding oil weighed on CAD. Late in the Asia session price is retesting the 1.3994 NY high just under the 1.4000 round number, holding above a rising trendline from the 1.3951 low. RSI(14) is near 61, not stretched.
Support: 1.3985, 1.3979, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3995, 1.4000
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.3995 NY high and the 1.4000 round number breaks the overnight range top
Failure below the 1.3985 intraday hl and the 1.3979 Asian low puts the rising trendline and the fib 38.2% near 1.3978 in play
JOLTS at 15:00 UTC, Macklem at 16:00 UTC and US midterm headlines could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 1.3950 double low; Asian range 1.3979–1.3993.
London and NY both sold to a 1.3950 double low on oil and Iran headlines, then late NY recovered to a 1.3994 prior high. The Asia session has held a 1.3979 Asian low near the 38.2% fib and printed rising lows, with price now testing the Asian range top just under the 1.4000 round number.
Support: 1.3979, 1.3951
Resistance: 1.3994, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3994 prior high opens a test of the 1.4000 round number
Loss of the 1.3979 Asian low breaks the rising-lows trendline and reopens 1.3951
US midterm headlines from ~05:00 UTC and oil/Iran newsflow could materially shift this read
01:46 UTC
Intraday recovery from 1.3950, stalling in Asia · RSI 57 · price 1.39893
Higher lows off a 1.3950 double bottom; Asian range 1.3979–1.3993 capped below the NY high.
London and the ISM hour in NY both bottomed near 1.3950, forming a double bottom. The NY session then reversed Monday's oil-driven slide with a run of higher lows to a 1.3994 NY high. Asia is ranging 1.3979–1.3993 below that high, and the Asian low is holding near the 38.2% retracement of the NY rally. RSI(14) sits at ~57 and ATR is ~4 pips.
Support: 1.39791, 1.39695, 1.39505
Resistance: 1.39926, 1.39944, 1.4000
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.3994 NY high clears the Asian high and puts the 1.4000 round number in play
Failure to hold the 1.3979 Asian low breaks the rising trendline and exposes the 1.3970 swing low
Loss of 1.3970 reopens the 1.3950 double bottom area
US midterm polling from 05:00 UTC, then JOLTS 15:00 UTC and Macklem 16:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
01:31 UTC
Recovering from the 1.3950 double low, stalling below 1.40 · RSI 55 · price 1.39886
Tight Asian consolidation under the 1.3994 prior high; rising trendline intact.
A double bottom at the 1.3950 day low, set once in London and again in NY, launched a NY-session rebound to the 1.3994 prior high as sliding oil weighed on CAD. Asia is now holding 1.3979–1.3993 just under the 1.40 round number. The asian low sits on the 38.2% level of the NY rally fib and the rising trendline, with RSI(14) neutral near 55.
Support: 1.3979, 1.3951
Resistance: 1.3994, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3994 prior high exposes the 1.40 round number
Break of the 1.3979 asian low and the rising trendline opens the 50% fib near 1.3973
Loss of the 1.3951 day low negates the double bottom
US midterm voting from ~05:00 UTC and US-Iran/oil headlines could shift this read ahead of JOLTS and Macklem later Tuesday
Higher lows off 1.3950, Asian range compressing below 1.3994.
A double bottom near the 1.3950 day low, set in London and again in NY on the oil-led USD dip despite the ISM beat, gave way to a steady climb to the 1.39944 prior high late in NY. Asia is compressing in a 1.3979–1.3993 range just under the 1.40 round number, holding above rising support and the 23.6% retracement, with RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 1.39791, 1.39695, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.39944, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.39944 prior high and 1.40 round number breaks the Asian range and the session high
Loss of the 1.3979 asian low and rising support puts the 1.3970 swing low and 38.2% retracement at 1.3978–1.3973 in play
Return to the 1.3950 day low would test the double bottom
US midterm polls from ~05:00 UTC and US-Iran/oil headlines could materially shift this read around London open
Higher lows since 1.3950 double low; early Asian range 1.3979–1.3993.
Yesterday's double low near 1.3950 held through London and the 15:00 UTC US PMI data. Price then built a chain of rising lows through NY to a 1.3994 prior high as sliding WTI weighed on CAD. Early Asia is holding a 1.3979–1.3993 range under the 1.40 round number, with the 00:30 UTC spike to 1.3993 rejected and RSI(14) flat near 52.
Support: 1.3979, 1.3970, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3994, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3994 prior high puts the 1.40 round number in play
A break of the 1.3979 asian low and the rising lows trendline exposes the 1.3970 swing low
US midterm voting today, plus JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and Macklem at 16:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Double low at 1.3950, higher-low recovery, now a 1.3979-1.3994 consolidation.
Monday's two flushes into the 1.3950 double low, at London open and again around the US ISM release as oil/Iran headlines weighed on USD, both got absorbed, and the rebound printed a ny high at 1.3994. Early Asia is holding a 1.3979-1.3993 range just under the 1.40 round number, with the asian low sitting on the 38.2% retrace and the rising trendline. RSI is flat near 51 and ATR is about 4 pips.
Support: 1.3979, 1.3951
Resistance: 1.39944, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3994 ny high puts the 1.40 round number in play
Break of the 1.3979 asian low and the rising trendline exposes the 50-61.8% retrace zone at 1.3973-1.3968
Loss of the 1.3951 double low would invalidate the recovery read
US midterm and US-Iran/oil headlines through Asia and London could jolt the pair outside the current range
00:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend from 1.3950, pulling back · RSI 40 · price 1.3981
Higher lows off the double bottom, early-Asia pullback toward 38.2% fib.
Monday's London and NY lows formed a double bottom at 1.3950, and the late-NY climb stalled at a 1.3994 day high, capped under the 1.40 handle as oil-driven USD softness lingered. Early Asia has eased to 1.3981, holding a thin 1.3979 session low to 1.3990 session high range near the 38.2% fib, with RSI(14) cooling to about 40.
Support: 1.3979, 1.3970, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3990, 1.3994, 1.4000
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.3979 session low and the 38.2% fib exposes the 1.3970 swing low.
A close above the 1.3994 day high brings the 1.40 handle back into play.
Loss of 1.3970 shifts focus back to the 1.3950 double btm.
US midterm results overnight and US-Iran oil headlines could materially shift this read.
Double-bottom base at 1.3950, lower highs capping below 1.3994.
USDCAD put in a double bottom at 1.3950/51, first in London and again on the NY drop around the 15:00 UTC data. It then rallied to a 1.3994 day high as the USD softened with oil, but was rejected below 1.40. In early Asia the pair has held the 1.3980 rollover low twice under a 1.3990 lower high, trading below the EMA20, on the EMA50, with RSI near 43.
Support: 1.3980, 1.3970, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3990, 1.3994, 1.4000
What it said to watch
Break of the 1.3980 rollover low exposes the 38.2% rally fib near 1.3978 and the 1.3970 pullback low
Close above the 1.3990 lower high and 1.3994 day high reopens a test of the 1.40 psych handle
Loss of 1.3950 would void the double bottom read
Oil and US-Iran headlines, US JOLTS (15:00 UTC) and Macklem (16:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
00:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend from 1.3950, pausing below day high · RSI 48 · price 1.39855
Higher low at 1.3980 after 1.3994 day high; Asia drifting mid-range.
London and NY both found demand near 1.3950, forming a double btm as USD stayed soft on oil and Iran diplomacy headlines. Late NY pushed to a 1.3994 day high. Early Asia has eased back but is holding a higher low at 1.3980, on rising support, with RSI(14) neutral near 48 and ATR(14) around 4 pips.
Support: 1.3980, 1.3951
Resistance: 1.3994, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3980 higher low breaks rising support and exposes the 38.2% rally fib near 1.3978
Acceptance above the 1.3994 day high puts the 1.4000 round number in play
Loss of the 1.3951 double btm would negate the intraday recovery
BoC's Macklem (Tue 16:00 UTC) and midterm results later in the week could materially shift CAD and USD