22:05 UTC
Downtrend since mid-October top, downside momentum fading · RSI 43 · price 1.40104
Lower highs from 1.4299, lows compressing into a falling wedge.
The September rally from the 1.3759 sep low stalled at a triple top at 1.4293–1.4299 between Oct 5 and Oct 14. Since then, a three-week decline has printed lower highs and reached a 1.3941 swing low on Oct 30, after the BoC hike and a softer USD pushed the pair below 1.40. Lows have since flattened while highs keep stepping down, and the latest close at 1.4010 is pressing the wedge's descending trendline. Price remains below the ema20 near 1.4058, and RSI around 43 shows bearish momentum easing without reaching oversold.
Support: 1.3941, 1.3759
Resistance: 1.4058, 1.4068, 1.4299
What it said to watch
- A daily close above the 1.4068 lower high would break the falling wedge and clear the ema20, opening the 38.2% fib near 1.4078 and the 50% near 1.4120
- Failure to hold the 1.3941 swing low would extend the lower-low chain and bring the 1.3759 sep low back into view
- Only a recovery through the 1.4299 triple top would negate the October breakdown
- US midterm results overnight, then ADP and ISM Services on Wed, could jolt USD direction
- Macklem on Thu and the simultaneous Canada/US jobs data on Fri 13:30 UTC could decide the wedge resolution