22:04 UTC
Downtrend since mid-October top, below both EMAs · RSI 37 · price 1.39691
Lower highs and lower lows after a triple top near 1.4300; testing the 61.8% retrace of the Sep-Oct rally.
The Sep 8 to Oct 14 rally from the 1.3759 sep low capped in a triple top at 1.4290-1.4299. The mid-October break of the 1.4196 neckline started a sequence of weekly lower highs, with 1.4068 the latest lower high. The BoC's Oct 28 hike and a soft USD took the pair below 1.40 to a 1.3941 swing low, and price is now sitting on the 61.8% retrace of the Sep-Oct rally. RSI near 37 shows momentum fading but not oversold, while the descending trendline from the October top keeps capping rebounds.
Support: 1.3941, 1.3900, 1.3759
Resistance: 1.4068, 1.4196, 1.4299
What it said to watch
- A daily close below the 1.3941 swing low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.3900 round number and the 78.6% level near 1.3875
- A daily close above the 1.4068 lower high breaks the descending trendline and challenges the downtrend read
- US midterms Tue Nov 3 and Macklem Tue 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
- NFP and Canada jobs on Fri Nov 6 land on the same bar
- A recovery back above the 1.4196 neckline would neutralise the triple top