Lower highs and lower lows from 1.4299; bounce capped at 1.4068.
Three failures near 1.4293–1.4299 marked the top. Price has since printed lower highs and lower lows through the 1.4135 breakdown area to the 1.3968 swing low. The rebound stalled at the 1.4068 bounce high, between the 23.6% and 38.2% fib of that decline and under the lower-highs trendline, and the post-FOMC bar slipped back under the 1.4000 round number as USD eased on Warsh's 'tightening is working' line alongside the BoC's hawkish hike. Price sits below both EMAs with EMA20 under EMA50, and ATR(14) near 23 pips is well below the 30+ pip ranges seen earlier in the window, though the latest bar expanded sharply.
Support: 1.3968, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4068, 1.4135
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.3968 swing low confirms a fresh lower-low and exposes the 1.3900 psych level
H4 close back above the 1.4000 round number weakens the breakdown read; a close above the 1.4068 bounce high breaks the lower-highs sequence
Core PCE and Q3 GDP Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Canada Aug GDP Fri 12:30 UTC is the next CAD-side risk to the structure
Lower highs from 1.4299 to 1.3968, then higher lows and a stall near 1.4068.
The pair rolled over from the 1.4293-1.4299 cap, broke the 1.4195 range floor and printed a run of lower highs into the 1.3968 swing low. Since then a higher-low line has lifted price back above EMA20. The rebound stalled at the 1.4068 rebound high, just past the 23.6% of the decline fib and under EMA50, after the in-line BoC hike to 2.50% left CAD flat. ATR(14) has compressed to about 21 pips from the 30+ pip bars of the sell-off, keeping the pair in a tight band above the 1.4000 psych level.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.4068, 1.4134, 1.4195
What it said to watch
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh presser could materially shift this read
H4 close above the 1.4068 rebound high and EMA50 brings the 1.4134 swing high into view, then the 1.4195 range floor
Break of the higher-low line and the 1.4000 psych level reopens the 1.3968 swing low
Canada GDP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.2% m/m) is a second catalyst for BoC pricing
Lower highs from 1.4299 to a 1.3968 swing low; small higher low since.
After two weeks capped near 1.4299, the pair broke the 1.4200 range floor and sold off to a 1.3968 swing low. The move came as hawkish Macklem comments and narrowing US-Canada 2-year spreads lifted BoC hike bets. A firmer USD has since driven a rebound along rising lows above the 1.4000 round number. It stalled at a 1.4068 rebound high, short of the 1.4082 lower high, and the latest bar was rejected back to 1.4034. ATR(14) has compressed to roughly 20 pips from 30-40 during the decline, and price sits back below EMA(50) while holding just above EMA(20).
Support: 1.4000, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.4068, 1.4082, 1.4134
What it said to watch
BoC decision at 13:45 UTC and Fed at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
H4 close above the 1.4082 lower high breaks the descending swing sequence and brings the 1.4134 50% fib into view
Loss of the 1.4000 round number and the rising lows line re-exposes the 1.3968 swing low
Repeated failure at the 1.4068 rebound high keeps the move corrective within the downtrend
09:04 UTC
Downtrend, corrective bounce off the lows · RSI 64 · price 1.40614
Lower highs from 1.4299; higher-low base since the 1.3968 swing low.
A triple-top cap near 1.4295 gave way to a ~330-pip decline into the 1.3968 swing low. That low marked the end of CAD's seven-day run, and USD has firmed since into the FOMC. A higher-lows base has since formed, and price has cleared the 1.4055 cap and the fib 23.6% at 1.4046. It is now pressing the ema50 near 1.4065, with ATR(14) compressed to ~18 pips. EMA20 still sits below EMA50, so the bounce remains corrective inside the lower-high sequence capped by the 1.4082 prior high.
Support: 1.4046, 1.4000, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.4065, 1.4082, 1.4095
What it said to watch
BoC decision at 13:45 UTC: a hike with hawkish guidance would put the 1.4000 psych pivot back in play, while a hold would leave the 1.4082 prior high exposed
H4 close above the 1.4082 prior high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the fib 38.2% at 1.4095
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the fib 23.6% at 1.4046 and the higher-lows line returns focus to 1.4000 psych and the 1.3968 swing low
Lower highs from 1.4299 into 1.3968 low; higher lows since, range top 1.4055 cleared.
After repeated caps near 1.4299, USDCAD printed a steady run of lower highs into the 1.3968 swing low as BoC hike pricing and oil strength lifted CAD. Since then the pair has based in a 1.3998–1.4055 range, with higher lows on a rising support line and the 1.4000 psych level holding. The latest bars cleared the range top as the USD firmed into FOMC, and price is now pressing EMA50 near 1.4065, just above the 23.6% retracement of the decline. ATR(14) has compressed to roughly 19 pips from near 30 earlier in the month.
Support: 1.4055, 1.4000, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.4082, 1.4095, 1.4134
What it said to watch
BoC decision at 13:45 UTC and FOMC at 18:00 UTC today are likely to expand the compressed ATR and decide whether the range break holds
An H4 close back below the 1.4055 range top would turn the move into a false break inside the 1.40 base
A close above the 1.4082 lower high would break the down-sequence and open the 38.2% fib at 1.4095, then the 50% fib near 1.4134
Losing the rising support line and the 1.4000 psych level, then the 1.3968 swing low, would resume the downtrend
Thursday's core PCE (f/c 0.3% m/m) could reinforce or reverse the post-FOMC move
Lower highs from 1.4299 triple top; tight range 1.3968-1.4055 with higher lows.
USD/CAD has printed lower highs since the triple top near 1.4299. The seven-day slide to the 1.3968 swing low came on hawkish BoC pricing and narrowing 2-year spreads. Price has since cleared the falling trendline and built higher lows, and is now pressing the 1.4055 range high at the 23.6% retracement. The ema20 sits below price and EMA50 (~1.4065) caps just overhead. ATR(14) near 21 pips has compressed from the decline phase, a coil into the BoC and Fed decisions.
Support: 1.4020, 1.4000, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.4055, 1.4082, 1.4134
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.4055 range high and EMA50 opens the prior high at 1.4082, then the 50% fib at 1.4134
Loss of the higher lows line and the ema20 at 1.4020 puts the 1.4000 round number back in focus
Break of the 1.3968 swing low resumes the downtrend sequence
BoC decision at 13:45 UTC and Fed at 18:00 UTC today could materially shift this read; a BoC hold against ~85% hike pricing is the larger-move scenario