Lower highs since 1.4299; base forming 1.3965–1.4070.
USDCAD has printed lower highs since the 1.4299 peak and slid roughly 330 pips into the 1.3965 swing low. Price then moved sideways for about 10 days between 1.3965 and the 1.4070 range high, still below the lower-highs trendline. This week's hawkish BoC hike pushed price back under the 1.40 psych handle, and the swing low has now been tested three times. Price is below both EMA20 and EMA50, which are flattening. ATR(14) near 26 pips is below the readings seen during the mid-month decline, a sign of compression into the lows.
Support: 1.3965, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4070, 1.4134
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.3965 swing low confirms a lower low and exposes the 1.3900 round number
Reclaim of 1.40 psych and the 1.4070 range high would break the lower-highs sequence and expose the 1.4134 fib 50%
Canada Aug GDP and US ECI, both Fri 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Fed's Daly and Musalem later Friday on December hike guidance
Lower highs from 1.4299; equal lows forming at 1.3968-1.3970.
Lower-high structure has held since the 1.4299 swing high. The latest bounce stalled at a lower high of 1.4068, below the 38.2% fib of the 1.4299-1.3968 leg, and the downtrend line from 1.4299 still caps rallies. The decline has stalled at a double low at 1.3968-1.3970: the BoC hike to 2.50% was largely priced, and firm USD on December Fed-hike bets has kept the low intact. ATR(14) near 25 pips is down from the 30+ seen earlier in the window, a mild compression with price below both EMAs and EMA20 still under EMA50.
Support: 1.3970, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4015, 1.4068, 1.4095
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.3970 double low extends the lower-low sequence and opens the path toward 1.3900 round number
Recovery above the ema20 near 1.4015 and then the 1.4068 lower high would break the lower-high sequence and the downtrend line
Fri 12:30 UTC Canada Aug GDP (f/c 0.2%) and US ECI (f/c 0.8%) land together and could materially shift this read
Acceptance above the 38.2% fib at 1.4095 would turn the move from a bounce into a deeper retracement of the 1.4299-1.3968 leg
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.4299 triple top; price back at the 1.3968 equal lows.
The triple top at 1.4293-1.4299 gave way mid-window, and the pair has since printed a steady lower-high, lower-low sequence. The recovery to the 1.4068 lower high stalled below the 38.2% retracement, and the CAD-supportive BoC hike to 2.50% pushed price back under 1.4000 psych to retest the 1.3968 equal lows. Price sits below both EMA20 and EMA50, and ATR(14) near 23 pips shows no compression ahead of the level.
Support: 1.3968, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4068, 1.4134
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.3968 equal lows extends the lower-low sequence and opens the path toward the 1.3900 round number
Recovery above 1.4000 psych and the 1.4068 lower high would break the lower-high trendline and challenge the downtrend read; fib 50% at 1.4134 sits above
Pending US PCE / Q3 GDP actuals and Friday's Canada August GDP (f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read
Lower highs since the 1.4299 cap; basing between 1.3968 and 1.4068.
USDCAD has made lower highs since the triple cap near 1.4299 earlier in the month, with the decline stalling at 1.3968. The bounce to the 1.4068 range high met rejection after the BoC's 25bp hike lifted CAD, and price is back under the 1.4000 psych level, below both EMAs, retesting the twin lows. ATR(14) near 22 pips is down from the mid-month expansion, so the 1.3968–1.4068 band is compressing under a lower-highs line.
Support: 1.3968, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4068, 1.4095
What it said to watch
US core PCE and Q3 GDP in ~4h could materially shift this read
H4 close below the 1.3968 twin lows confirms a fresh lower low and exposes the 1.3900 round number
Reclaiming 1.4000 psych and closing above the 1.4068 range high breaks the lower-highs line and brings the fib 38.2 at 1.4095 into view
Canada Aug GDP on Friday (f/c 0.2% MoM) is the next CAD-side risk to the range
Lower highs since 1.4299; retesting 1.3968 swing low.
The early-month range capped near 1.4299 broke down through 1.4200 mid-month, starting a lower-high sequence that ran to the 1.3968 swing low. The rebound stalled at a 1.4068 lower high, short of the fib 38.2 of the decline at 1.4095. Price has since slipped back below the 1.4000 psych level and is testing the swing low again, with CAD firmer after the hawkish-leaning BoC hike. ATR(14) near 22 pips is well below its mid-month expansion, and price sits under both EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 1.3968, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4068, 1.4095
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.3968 swing low confirms a lower low and opens the 1.3900 round number
Reclaim of 1.4000 psych, then a close above the 1.4068 lower high, breaks the lower-high sequence toward the fib 38.2 at 1.4095
US Q3 GDP and core PCE today could materially shift this read
Canada August GDP on Friday is a second event risk for the swing low test
Lower highs from 1.4299; 1.3968–1.4068 range above the low.
USDCAD keeps a lower-high sequence from the 1.4299 high. The rebound off the 1.3968 6-week low stalled at the 1.4068 swing high, below the 1.4082 lower high and short of the 38.2% fib of the decline at 1.4095. The post-Fed USD slip pushed price back under 1.4000 psych and below both EMAs, which sit stacked lower near 1.4025–1.4035. ATR(14) near 22 pips is down from roughly 30 during the mid-month leg, so price is compressing in a 1.3968–1.4068 range just above the low.
Support: 1.3968, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4068, 1.4095
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.3968 6-week low resumes lower lows, with the 1.3900 round number next
Reclaim of 1.4000 psych and the 1.4025–1.4035 EMA zone returns price to mid-range
Close above the 1.4068 swing high and the 1.4082 lower high breaks the lower-highs line, exposing the 38.2% fib at 1.4095
US core PCE/GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~12h) and Canada Aug GDP Fri 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read