Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.4195 range floor broke; narrowing into a falling wedge.
USD/CAD has printed lower highs and lower lows since slipping below the 1.4195 range floor mid-month. The latest lower high is at 1.4068, and the latest swing low is a marginal new low at 1.3941. Oil above $103 and last week's BoC hike have kept CAD firm, but recent down-legs are shallower and ATR(14) has eased to about 28 pips, with price narrowing into a falling wedge beneath the 1.4000 round number and below both EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 1.3941, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4068, 1.4195
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.4000 round number, near the 50% retrace of the leg down from the 1.4068 lower high, would break out of the falling wedge
A close above the 1.4068 lower high ends the lower-high sequence; the 1.4195 range floor is the next structural cap
Failure to hold the 1.3941 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3900 round number
ISM Manufacturing (Mon Nov 2) and BoC Governor Macklem's speech (Tue Nov 3) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.4299 swing high.
Lower-high, lower-low sequence has held since the 1.4299 peak. The late-October 1.3968–1.4068 range gave way this week, and the prior low at 1.3968 now sits overhead with the 1.4000 psych handle above it. CAD strength is the driver: WTI above $103 and the BoC's first hike in over three years, alongside a soft USD. ATR(14) near 29 pips shows a steady grind rather than an expanding selloff. Price is printing a new swing low at 1.3941 below both EMAs, with RSI near 34.
Support: 1.3941, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.3968, 1.4000, 1.4068
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the 1.3968 prior low would mark the range break as a false break
Failure to hold the 1.3941 swing low exposes the 1.3900 round number
A move through the 1.4068 lower high and the descending lower-high trendline would break the downtrend sequence; the 38.2% retracement of the 1.4299–1.3941 drop sits just above
Macklem speech Tue 16:00 UTC, US ISM Mon and the midterms Tue could materially shift this read
A reversal in oil from above $103 would remove the main CAD support behind the decline
USDCAD has printed lower highs since the 1.4299 mid-month top, with the latest swing high at 1.4068 stalling below the 38.2% fib of the 1.4299-1.3950 drop. Price is now pressing a fresh window low near 1.3950, under the 1.3968 prior low, after the BoC hike, the soft post-FOMC USD and firm oil kept CAD bid. Today's flat Canadian GDP has not yet produced a rebound. Price sits below both EMAs with EMA20 under EMA50, and ATR near 27 pips is steady rather than compressing. The wedge top and wedge base are converging into a falling wedge.
Support: 1.3950, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.3968, 1.4000, 1.4068
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the 1.3968 prior low would mark the latest break as a false break
Reclaim of 1.4000 psych and the wedge top near 1.4050 breaks the falling wedge and challenges the 1.4068 swing high
Acceptance below the wedge base toward the 1.3900 round number extends the lower-low sequence
US ECI reaction plus Daly and Musalem later today, then Monday's ISM and Canadian manufacturing PMI, could shift this read
Oil swings on US-Iran diplomacy headlines remain the main CAD-side driver
Lower highs and lower lows from the 1.4299 top, compressing above 1.3959.
Lower-high, lower-low sequence intact since the 1.4299 top. A falling downtrend line from that high has capped every rally, and the move below 1.40 came with the hawkish BoC hike and three days of USD softness. The late-October lows are now stacking between 1.3959 and 1.3968, so new lows are coming in only marginally deeper; the swing low at 1.3959 is the level under test. ATR(14) near 26 pips is subdued against the mid-month breakdown leg, and EMA20 sits below EMA50 with price under both.
Support: 1.3959, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4014, 1.4068, 1.4089
What it said to watch
Canada Aug GDP (f/c 0.2%) and US ECI (f/c 0.8%), both at 12:30 UTC today, could materially shift this read
H4 close below the 1.3959 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3900 round number
Recovery above the 1.4014 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence; the 1.4068 swing high and fib 38.2 near 1.4089 are the next tests
A break of the downtrend line from 1.4299 would end the multi-week falling structure
05:03 UTC
Downtrend, ATR compressing at the lows · RSI 36 · price 1.39714
Lower highs from 1.4299; range break below 1.40 with a failed retest.
Lower highs have stepped down from the triple test near 1.4299, and the 1.4000–1.4068 shelf gave way earlier this week as CAD firmed after the BoC hike and USD eased on US-Iran de-escalation. The retest of psych 1.40 was rejected, and price sits below both EMAs, now pressing the 1.3959 swing low. ATR(14) has contracted to about 26 pips from the mid-30s earlier in the decline, so the move is slowing rather than extending.
Support: 1.3959, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4068, 1.4089
What it said to watch
Canada August GDP and US ECI, both at 12:30 UTC today, could materially shift this read
An H4 close back above psych 1.40 would neutralise the range break
A break above the 1.4068 swing high and the lower-highs trendline would end the lower-high sequence; the fib 38.2 at 1.4089 sits just above
Failure to hold the 1.3959 swing low confirms a fresh lower low, with the 1.3900 round number next
Lower highs from 1.4299 triple top; week-long range 1.3965-1.4068.
Three failures near 1.4299 earlier in the month started a roughly 330-pip slide of lower highs. The pair has since been boxed between the 1.3965 swing low and the 1.4068 lower high, and the latest leg only marginally undercut the prior low at 1.3968. A firm USD after the Q3 GDP beat and a hawkish Fed hold has offset the BoC hike, and price sits below both EMAs with the minor high at 1.4014 capping bounces and ATR(14) compressing to about 25 pips, below the earlier-month regime.
Support: 1.3965, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4014, 1.4068, 1.4093
What it said to watch
An H4 close below the 1.3965 swing low extends the lower-low sequence and opens the 1.3900 round number
A close above the 1.4068 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the fib 38.2 at 1.4093 in play
Repeated holds at 1.3965 would build a double-bottom case against the downtrend read
Canada Aug GDP and US ECI, both Fri 12:30 UTC, plus Fed's Daly and Musalem later, could break the range