Lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday's high; price testing falling trendline.
USDCAD has printed lower highs and lower lows since the 1.4068 Asia-session high on Wednesday. The break below 1.40 came in Wednesday's NY afternoon after the BoC hike and around the FOMC. Thursday's spike to 1.4014 on US GDP/PCE faded, and Friday's NY session set a week low at 1.3941 as firm oil kept CAD bid despite flat Canadian GDP. The late-Friday bounce has lifted price back above EMA(20) at 1.3965 and the 23.6% fib of the Wednesday–Friday drop, pressing the falling trendline, with RSI(14) back near 52 and EMA(50) at 1.3981 capping.
Support: 1.3965, 1.3941, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.3981, 1.3990, 1.4014
What it said to watch
H1 close above EMA(50) and the 38.2% fib at 1.3990 would put Thursday's high at 1.4014 back in play; a close above that negates the lower-high sequence
Slip back below EMA(20) at 1.3965 and a break of the 1.3941 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3900 round number
Friday's push above the falling trendline came in the thin final hour; failure to hold it keeps the downtrend read intact
Mon ISM Manufacturing PMI (15:00 UTC) and Tue BoC Macklem speech (16:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
20:03 UTC
Downtrend, bounce stalling at descending line · RSI 45 · price 1.39661
Lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday's peak.
Lower highs have stacked since Wednesday's 1.4068 Asia-session peak. The FOMC-hour drop broke 1.40, and Thursday's spike to the 1.4014 GDP high faded through NY hours. CAD strength on $103+ WTI and softer US yields carried Friday's NY session to a 1.3941 week low, below the 1.3949 London low, before a bounce back to EMA(20) near 1.3965, with RSI(14) at 45 and price now pressing the lower highs trendline from Thursday's GDP high.
Support: 1.3949, 1.3941, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.3978, 1.3990, 1.4014
What it said to watch
H1 close above the lower highs trendline and the 1.3978 swing high breaks the sequence, with the 1.3990 fib 38.2 of the week range next
Failure to hold the 1.3949 London low reopens the 1.3941 week low and the 1.3900 round number
Reclaim of the 1.4014 GDP high would negate the week's lower-high structure
ISM Manufacturing Mon 15:00 UTC and Macklem's speech Tue 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows below 1.40, week low at 1.3941.
Lower highs have stepped down since Wednesday's 1.4068 Asia-session peak. The break under the 1.40 round number came in NY hours after the FOMC, and Thursday's GDP-driven bounce to 1.4014 was sold back below it. Firm CAD on $103+ WTI and the BoC hike has kept price under EMA(20) for most of Friday, and a new week low at 1.3941 printed in the NY session after the soft Canada GDP. RSI(14) sits near 40, short of oversold, while Friday's 1.3978 lower high near the 23.6% week fib produced a rejection that keeps the falling sequence intact.
Support: 1.39414, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.3962, 1.39775, 1.4000
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 1.3978 lower high and the falling trendline would break the lower-high sequence and put the 1.40 round number back in view
Sustained trade back above EMA(20) near 1.3962 would signal the Friday slide stalling
Failure to hold the 1.3941 week low would extend the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3900 round number
ISM Manufacturing (Mon 15:00 UTC) and Macklem's speech (Tue 16:00 UTC) could materially shift this read; oil headlines are the swing factor for CAD
Lower highs and lower lows from 1.4068 week high; price pinned near week low.
USDCAD has printed lower highs since Wednesday's 1.4068 week high. The FOMC-hour drop broke 1.4000, and the slide ran into a third session, reaching the 1.3941 week low during Friday's NY session as lower US yields and WTI above $103 outweighed Canada's flat August GDP. The rebound after the GDP print stalled at 1.3978 (the Friday high) under a lower-high trendline from Thursday's 1.4014 post-PCE high, and price now sits just below EMA(20) near 1.3964 with RSI(14) around 40.
Support: 1.39414
Resistance: 1.39644, 1.39775, 1.40141
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3978 Friday high breaks the lower-high trendline and challenges the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 1.3941 week low extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 1.4014 Thursday high, above the 50% fib of the week's decline near 1.4005, would neutralise the drop
Holding below EMA(20) at 1.3964 keeps the pattern of capped rallies intact
US ISM Mon 15:00 UTC and Macklem Tue 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday's 1.4068 peak; 1.40 handle lost.
USDCAD has printed lower highs since Wednesday's Asia-session peak at 1.4068. The 1.40 handle gave way after Wednesday evening's FOMC, and Thursday's post-GDP spike to the 1.4014 thu high met rejection within the same NY session. Friday's NY session set a fresh week low at 1.3941 after the bounce on the Canada GDP miss faded at a 1.3978 lower high, with oil above $103 and softer US yields keeping CAD firm. Price trades below the ema20 near 1.3962 with RSI(14) around 35, not yet oversold.
Support: 1.3941, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.3962, 1.3978, 1.4014
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3978 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence; reclaiming the ema20 at 1.3962 is the first test
Failure to hold the 1.3941 week low exposes the 1.3900 round number
Recovery through the 38.2% retrace of the week's drop near 1.3990 would challenge the downtrend read; the thu high at 1.4014 caps above
Weekly close, then US ISM Manufacturing (Mon 15:00 UTC) and Macklem (Tue 16:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
An oil reversal from above $103 removes the main CAD support
Lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday's 1.4068 week high.
The pair topped at 1.4068 during Wednesday's Asia session, and the BoC hike and post-FOMC selling during NY hours took out 1.4000. Each rebound since has stalled at a lower high: Thursday's GDP spike capped at the thu high of 1.4014, and today's 1.3978 lower high came before the Chicago PMI miss. Today's dip through the 1.3949 prior low to a 1.3941 week low was bought back above it, with oil-backed CAD strength still the main driver. Price sits just under the ema20 near 1.3965, and RSI(14) at about 42 is holding above Thursday's trough despite the new low.
Support: 1.3949, 1.3941, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.3965, 1.3978, 1.4014
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 1.3978 lower high and the lower highs trendline would break the sequence and bring the fib 38.2% near 1.3990 into view.
Repeated rejection at the ema20 near 1.3965 keeps the lower-high structure intact.
A close below the 1.3941 week low turns the false break into continuation, with the 1.3900 round number next.
Fed's Daly (16:00Z) and Musalem (16:30Z) could materially shift this read into the weekly close.
The Macklem speech on Tue Nov 3 and Monday's ISM are the next event risks.
Lower highs and lower lows since FOMC; bounces capped below prior highs.
Wednesday's FOMC-hour selloff took USDCAD from the 1.4068 week high through 1.40. Since then each NY-session bounce has failed below the last, first at the thu high of 1.4014 after US GDP, then at today's fri high of 1.3977. The flat Canada August GDP print (0% vs 0.2%) drove the spike to 1.3977, but it faded straight back toward the 1.3949 week low as broad USD softness reasserted. Price sits below the ema20 and EMA(50), with RSI(14) holding in the high 30s and not yet oversold.
Support: 1.3949, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.3965, 1.3977, 1.4014
What it said to watch
Fed's Daly (16:00 UTC) and Musalem (16:30 UTC) could materially shift this read during NY hours
H1 close above the lower-highs trendline and the 1.3977 fri high would break the lower-high sequence
Recovery through the 38.2% decline retracement near 1.3995 and the 1.4014 thu high would negate the post-FOMC downtrend read
Failure to hold the 1.3949 week low extends lower lows toward the 1.3900 round number
Lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday, compressing in a falling wedge; price testing the wedge top.
The pair has posted lower highs since Wednesday's 1.4068 peak. The BoC hike and the Fed-day NY session drove the break below 1.40, and Thursday's US-data spike to the 1.4014 thu high was sold back through NY hours. Friday's flat Canadian GDP print set a week low at 1.3949, and the bounce since has price pressing EMA(20) near 1.3970 and edging above the falling wedge top. It remains below EMA(50) near 1.3987, with RSI(14) back to 47 from the low 30s.
Support: 1.3949, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.3976, 1.3992, 1.4014
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the fri high at 1.3976, which aligns with the 23.6% retracement of the Wed-Fri decline, would confirm the falling wedge break. The Thursday NY lower high at 1.3992 is the next cap.
A reclaim of 1.4000 and the thu high at 1.4014 (near the 38.2%-50% retracement zone) would invalidate the lower-high sequence.
Failure to hold the 1.3949 week low resumes lower lows along the wedge base toward the 1.3900 round number.
Chicago PMI now, then Fed's Daly (16:00 UTC) and Musalem (16:30 UTC), could shift the read into the close. Tuesday's US midterms are the next major binary.
Lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday's 1.4068 peak, compressing into a falling wedge.
USDCAD topped at 1.4068 in Wednesday's Asia session, and the post-BoC/FOMC selloff in NY hours broke the 1.40 handle. Thursday's US-data spike to the 1.4014 thu high was sold back. Every bounce since has capped below the lower highs line, and London pushed price to a 1.3949 week low today. The 12:30 UTC releases, including Canada's flat August GDP, produced a 15-pip lift off the wedge base back toward the ema20 near 1.3971, with RSI(14) recovering from the mid-30s and lows contracting relative to highs.
Support: 1.3949, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.3971, 1.3992, 1.4014
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3992 prior high would clear the lower highs line and break the falling wedge
Reclaim of the 1.4014 thu high voids the lower-high sequence since Wednesday
Failure to hold the 1.3949 week low and the wedge base extends the downtrend toward the 1.3900 round number
Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC and Fed's Daly (16:00 UTC) / Musalem (16:30 UTC) could shift the read via US yields
Oil and US-Iran diplomacy headlines remain the main CAD driver into the weekly close
Lower highs / lower lows since the FOMC breakdown.
USD/CAD has printed lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday's FOMC bar knocked it off the week high near 1.4068 and through 1.4000. Softer US yields and firm oil kept the pair on the back foot. Thursday's GDP spike to 1.4014 was rejected during NY hours, and Friday's London session extended to a fresh week low at 1.3950. Price remains capped beneath a falling ema20 near 1.3970, with RSI(14) holding below 40.
Support: 1.3950, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.3970, 1.3992, 1.4014
What it said to watch
Canada Aug GDP and US ECI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a soft Canadian print puts the 1.3992 lower high and 1.4014 back in play
H1 close above 1.3992 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and the descending trendline
Sustained trade below the 1.3950 week low extends the lower-low structure toward the 1.3900 round number
Daly/Musalem remarks later in the NY session on December hike odds
Lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday's 1.4068 week high.
Lower highs have stacked up since Wednesday's 1.4068 week high. The FOMC hour broke the pair below 1.40, and Thursday's GDP spike to the 1.4014 gdp high faded through the NY session. Broad USD softness carried the slide into London this morning, breaking below the Asian range and the 1.3958 overnight low. Price sits under EMA(20) near 1.3970 with RSI(14) around 32, and each bounce has stalled well short of the descending trendline. The 1.3950 round number is now being tested, with the 1.3920 support zone and 1.3900 psych level beneath.
Support: 1.3950, 1.3920, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.3970, 1.3992, 1.4014
What it said to watch
Canada August GDP and US ECI, both at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
H1 close back above the 1.3992 lower high and the descending trendline would break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.3950 round number exposes the 1.3920 support zone, then 1.3900 psych
Reclaim of EMA(20) near 1.3970 would be the first sign of the decline stalling
The 50% retrace of the week's fib sits near 1.4010, aligned with the 1.4014 gdp high
Fed's Daly (16:00) and Musalem (16:30 UTC) remarks on a December hike could change the read
Lower highs and lower lows below 1.40 since the FOMC break.
USDCAD has carved lower highs since Wednesday's 1.4068 week high. The BoC hike and FOMC session drove the break through the 1.40 handle, and Thursday's post-GDP spike to 1.4014 met rejection at the 50% retracement of the week's decline. Price has since slid through the Asia session and into London to a fresh week low at 1.3958, with each bounce capped below EMA(20), now near 1.3973, and RSI(14) holding in the low 30s amid broad USD softness after the Fed.
Support: 1.39582, 1.3950, 1.3920
Resistance: 1.3973, 1.4000, 1.40141
What it said to watch
Canada GDP and US ECI, both at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
H1 close back above EMA(20) at 1.3973 and the descending trendline would break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the week low at 1.3958 exposes the 1.3950 round number, then the 1.39 zone near 1.3920
Recovery of the 1.40 handle and the Thursday high at 1.4014 would mark a retest of the broken level
Lower highs since Wednesday's 1.4068 peak; fresh lows today.
The week's dominant move came in Wednesday's NY session. Around the BoC hike and the Fed hold, the pair slid from 1.4068 through 1.40 to 1.3989, with soft USD and a firm CAD doing the work. Thursday's bounce on the US GDP/PCE data met rejection at 1.4014, Thursday's prior high and roughly the 50% retracement of the drop, and the pair has since ground to a fresh week low at 1.3958 through the Asian and London sessions. Price sits below the ema20 near 1.3973 and below EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 37. Momentum is heavy but not oversold, and the lower-highs trendline from Wednesday's peak has capped each rebound.
Support: 1.39582, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.3973, 1.4000, 1.40141
What it said to watch
Canada Aug GDP (f/c 0.2%) and US ECI (f/c 0.8%) both at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close back above the ema20 at 1.3973 and the lower-highs trendline would signal the grind lower is stalling
Recovery through the 1.4000 psych level (38.2% fib) and the 1.4014 prior high would break the lower-high sequence
Acceptance below the 1.3958 week low extends the move toward the 1.3920/1.3900 round number zone
Lower highs and lower lows below 1.40 after Wednesday's range break.
Monday to Wednesday drifted higher to a 1.4068 week high in Wednesday's Asia session. Wednesday's BoC hike and the Fed presser broke the 1.4005–1.4068 range, and the NY session drove the pair below the 1.40 round number. Since then the pair has printed lower highs at 1.4053 and 1.4014, the thu high set on the post-GDP spike near the 50% fib, and lower lows into the 1.3959 week low in Friday's Asian session. Price is holding below EMA(20) with RSI(14) in the mid-30s, and the descending trendline off those lower highs is capping the 1.3976 asian high as CAD stays firm on softer US yields.
Support: 1.39587, 1.3950, 1.3920
Resistance: 1.3976, 1.4000, 1.40141
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3976 asian high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence
Reclaim of the 1.40 round number (38.2% fib) signals the post-Fed break is failing; the 1.4014 thu high sits above
Failure to hold the 1.3959 week low exposes the 1.3950 psych level and the 1.3900/1.3920 support zone
Canada Aug GDP and US ECI, both at 12:30 UTC today, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows below 1.40, tight Asian range above week low.
USD/CAD has printed lower highs since Wednesday's 1.4068 week high. It broke below 1.40 on the Fed presser after the hawkish BoC hike, then extended to a 1.3959 week low in Friday's Asia session as US-Iran de-escalation drained the USD bid. Thursday's GDP-driven rebound met rejection at the 1.4014 Thursday high, just above the 38.2% fib of the week's decline near 1.4000, and was sold back through NY hours. Price now sits a few pips under EMA(20) near 1.3979 with RSI(14) in the low 40s, coiling in a narrow Asian range below the 1.3992 lower high.
Support: 1.3959, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.3979, 1.3992, 1.4014
What it said to watch
Canada Aug GDP (f/c 0.2%) and US ECI (f/c 0.8%), both at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
An H1 close below the 1.3959 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3900 round number
A reclaim of EMA(20) and the 1.3992 lower high would break the lower-highs trendline; a move back through the 1.4000 fib level and the 1.4014 Thursday high invalidates the downtrend read
Fed's Daly (16:00 UTC) and Musalem (16:30 UTC) during NY hours could reprice December hike odds and the USD leg
Lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday; tight range under EMA(20).
Lower highs since Wednesday's 1.4068 Asia-session high, with the break below the 1.40 pivot coming in the FOMC hour as USD softened after the BoC hike. Thursday's NY rebound after the US data dump stalled at the 1.4014 Thursday NY high, close to the 50% retracement of the week's decline and the lower-highs trendline. A fresh week low at 1.3959 printed in Asia, and price is now compressing just under EMA(20) near 1.3978 with RSI(14) around 45.
Support: 1.3959, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.3978, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
Canada GDP and US ECI, both at 12:30 UTC today, could materially shift this read
An H1 close back above the 1.40 pivot and the lower-highs trendline breaks the lower-high sequence, with the 1.4014 Thursday NY high next above
Failure to hold the 1.3959 week low confirms another lower low and exposes the 1.3920/1.3900 round number zone
Fed's Daly (16:00 UTC) and Musalem (16:30 UTC) could revive USD during NY hours if December-hike talk firms
Lower highs and lower lows below 1.40, capped by a falling trendline.
Since Wednesday's Asia-session week high at 1.4068 the pair has printed lower highs and lower lows. The Fed-hour drop broke the 1.40 pivot, and Thursday's GDP-driven NY bounce met rejection at 1.4014, the thu high, near the 50% retracement of the week's decline. With the dollar easing on US-Iran peace hopes after the BoC hike, today's Asia session extended to a week low at 1.3959; price now sits just below the ema20 near 1.3980 and the falling trendline, with RSI(14) in the mid-40s.
Support: 1.3965, 1.3959, 1.3920
Resistance: 1.3980, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
Canada Aug GDP and US ECI, both at 12:30 UTC today, could materially shift this read
H1 close back above the ema20 / trendline near 1.3980 and the 1.40 pivot weakens the lower-highs sequence
A sustained move above the thu high at 1.4014 negates the downtrend structure
Failure to hold the thu low at 1.3965 and the week low at 1.3959 confirms another lower low, exposing the 1.3920 support zone
Lower highs and lower lows from 1.4068; converging lines forming a falling wedge.
The week high at 1.4068 printed early Wednesday. The BoC hike and the Fed-day NY session then broke the pair below the 1.4000 round number. Lower highs and lower lows have followed, and Thursday's post-GDP spike to the 1.4014 thu high, the 50% fib of the week's drop, was fully reversed during NY hours. Friday's Asia session set a new week low at 1.3959 as USD softness on Middle East de-escalation persisted. Price sits below EMA(20) near 1.3979 with RSI(14) around 40, while the lower-high line and a shallower wedge base through Thursday and Friday lows are converging.
Support: 1.39587, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.3979, 1.4000, 1.40141
What it said to watch
H1 close above the lower-high line and EMA(20) near 1.3980 would challenge the downtrend read
Reclaim of the 1.4000 round number (38.2% of the week's drop) would neutralise Wednesday's break, with the 1.4014 thu high above
Failure to hold the 1.3959 week low and wedge base would extend the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3900 psych area
US ECI and Canada Aug GDP, both at 12:30 UTC today, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows below broken 1.4010–1.4068 range.
Wednesday's BoC hike and FOMC sessions broke the Monday–Wednesday 1.4010–1.4068 range, and every bounce since has printed a lower high. Thursday's US GDP spike to the 1.4014 gdp high, near the 50% retracement of the week's decline, faded during NY hours. Price is now at a fresh week low of 1.3959 in the Asia session, below EMA(20) near 1.3979 and EMA(50), while RSI(14) near 36 holds above its post-FOMC trough; the lower-high line is falling faster than the lows, which gives the decline a falling-wedge shape.
Support: 1.3959, 1.3920
Resistance: 1.3979, 1.3992, 1.4014
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3992 lower high and the lower-high line breaks the descending sequence
Hourly close above the 1.4014 gdp high would put price back inside the 1.40–1.4068 range
Failure to hold the 1.3959 week low exposes the 1.3920 support zone below the falling wedge base
Canada Aug GDP and US ECI, both 12:30 UTC today, could materially shift this read
Fed's Daly and Musalem in NY hours could move the pair after the data
02:02 UTC
Downtrend since Wednesday's FOMC bar · RSI 37 · price 1.39668
Lower highs and lower lows below 1.40.
USDCAD topped at the 1.4068 week high in Wednesday's Asia session. It whipsawed through the BoC hike during NY hours, then broke below 1.40 on the FOMC bar, and has printed lower highs and lower lows since. Thursday's GDP and claims beat lifted the pair to 1.4014, near the 50% retracement of the week's drop. That bounce met rejection and faded through the NY session. Friday's Asia session set a fresh week low at 1.3959, with price below ema20 (~1.3980) and RSI(14) in the high 30s.
Support: 1.3959, 1.3920
Resistance: 1.3980, 1.4014, 1.4068
What it said to watch
Canada Aug GDP and US ECI, both at 12:30 UTC today, could materially shift this read
H1 close back above ema20 near 1.3980 and the lower-highs trendline would stall the downtrend read
A move through the thu high at 1.4014 breaks the lower-high sequence and reopens the 1.4068 week high
Failure to hold the 1.3959 week low exposes the 1.3920 zone
Daly and Musalem at 16:00/16:30 UTC on December hike odds
Lower highs and lower lows below 1.40 after Wednesday's range break.
USD/CAD set the 1.4068 week high in Wednesday's Asia session, then broke below 1.40 through the BoC hike and Fed decision, with a falling trendline capping each bounce since. Thursday's bounce on the US GDP beat stalled at the 1.4014 Thu high, between the 38.2% and 50% retrace of the Wed–Thu sell-off, and drew a rejection that ran to a 1.3965 week low into the NY session. Price sits below EMA(20) near 1.3986 and EMA(50) near 1.4000 with RSI(14) in the mid-40s, and the overnight drift is capped by the 1.3992 lower high.
Support: 1.39649, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.39918, 1.40141, 1.40682
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3992 lower high and the falling trendline would break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.3965 week low confirms another lower low, with 1.3900 round number the next reference
Recovery back above the 1.4014 Thu high and 1.40 would neutralise Wednesday's range break
Canada GDP and US ECI at 12:30 UTC Friday could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.4064; tight range above week low.
USDCAD climbed from Monday's 1.4004 week open to a 1.4068 week high in Wednesday's Asia session. It reversed through the BoC hike and Fed hold, and the Wednesday–Thursday drop has since printed a clean sequence of lower highs. Thursday's spike on the US GDP beat was rejected at 1.4014, a lower high near the 50% retracement of that drop, and NY session selling carried the pair to the 1.3965 week low. Price is now compressing between that low and the ema20 near 1.3989, below the week open. RSI(14) is in the mid-40s and has not reached oversold.
Support: 1.3965, 1.3920
Resistance: 1.3989, 1.4004, 1.4014
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4014 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and invalidates the downtrend read
Reclaim of the 1.4004 week open would put price back inside Monday–Tuesday's range
Failure to hold the 1.3965 week low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 1.3920 zone
Canada Aug GDP and US ECI at 12:30 UTC Fri (~12h) could materially shift this read