22:47 UTC
Downtrend from the October triple top, at the 61.8% retrace · RSI 38 · price 1.39693
Lower highs and lower lows since the Oct 14 high; price below a flattening EMA(50).
Three tests of the 1.4300 oct high between Oct 5 and Oct 14 formed a triple top. Since then the pair has printed lower highs and lower lows for three weeks and has unwound to the 61.8% retracement of the September–October rally near 1.3966, below a flattening EMA(50) around 1.4050. The BoC's 25bp hike and oil above $103 kept CAD firm this week: Thursday's GDP-driven bounce toward 1.4007 faded, and Friday's 1.3941 weekly low extended the sequence, with RSI at 38 and not yet oversold. Below that, the sep low at 1.3759 and the aug low at 1.3732 are the next major pivots.
Support: 1.3941, 1.3759, 1.3732
Resistance: 1.4050, 1.4068, 1.4299
What it said to watch
- A daily close back above the 1.4068 lower high and the ema50 would break the lower-high sequence from the October top
- Sustained trade below the 1.3941 weekly low and the 61.8% fib leaves the sep low at 1.3759 as the next major pivot
- Macklem's speech on Tue Nov 3 and Canada jobs on Fri Nov 6 could materially shift the CAD side of this read
- US ISM Manufacturing on Mon Nov 2 and the midterms on Tue Nov 3 could reprice USD; an ISM miss would add to the yield slide
- A reclaim of the 1.4300 oct high would negate the triple top