21:43 UTC
Downtrend since mid-October top, extending lower · RSI 38 · price 1.39763
Lower highs and lower lows from the 1.4299 double top.
The August–October rally from the 1.3732 august low peaked in a double top at the 1.4299 october high on Oct 9 and Oct 14. Since then a weekly sequence of lower highs and lower lows has retraced roughly 60% of the move. Price now sits below EMA20 (~1.407) and below a flattening EMA50 (~1.405). CAD firmness on oil above $103 and Wednesday's BoC hike pushed the pair back below 1.40 late this week. Friday's 1.3941 swing low tagged the 61.8% retracement, and RSI near 38 is soft but not oversold.
Support: 1.3941, 1.3900, 1.3732
Resistance: 1.4016, 1.4068, 1.4299
What it said to watch
- A daily close below the 1.3941 swing low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.3900 round number, with the 1.3732 august low beyond.
- Recovery above the 1.4016 50% fib and the 1.4068 weekly high, which sits near EMA20, would break the lower-high sequence.
- US ISM Manufacturing (Mon), BoC Governor Macklem's speech (Tue Nov 3) and the US midterms could materially shift this read.
- A weekly hold above the 1.3941 swing low would leave the 61.8% fib intact as the retracement floor.
- Only a move back toward the 1.4299 october high would neutralise the double top.