Double-bottom base at 1.3941/1.3946, late-NY push through the NY high.
The NY session flushed to a session low at 1.3941 before a higher low at 1.3946 built a base. The late-NY rebound, in line with the softer-USD-then-recovery digest, carried Friday's last bar through the ny high at 1.3978 with RSI(14) near 70. Earlier, the flat Canada GDP print gave only a brief 15-pip lift before supply capped the move.
Support: 1.3960, 1.3946, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3978, 1.3991
What it said to watch
Holding above the 1.3960 swing low keeps the higher-low chain intact; a break back below 1.3946 (higher low) reopens the 1.3941 session low
Acceptance above 1.3978 (ny high) puts the 1.3991 Asia high in play
Weekend gap risk on the reopen; ISM Manufacturing Mon 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
17:38 UTC
Intraday recovery from the lows, momentum building into the close · RSI 60 · price 1.39763
HH/HL chain since the 15:45 UTC low, final bar breaking the NY high.
Flat Canada GDP lifted USDCAD to 1.3977 in NY, then oil-backed CAD demand drove it to the 1.3941 ny low. From there price built a HH/HL chain along the hl trendline, and the final bar cleared the NY high to a 1.3979 session high. RSI(14) is near 60 and the move sits below the 1.3987 asian shelf and 1.3991 asian high.
Support: 1.3973, 1.3960, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3979, 1.3987, 1.3991
What it said to watch
A close back below the 1.3973 prior high would mark the push above 1.3977 as a false break
Failure to hold the 1.3960 swing low breaks the hl trendline and the late-NY HH/HL chain
Sustained trade above the 1.3979 session high exposes the 1.3987 asian shelf and the 1.3991 asian high
A return below the 1.3941 ny low resumes the decline toward six-week lows
Weekend oil headlines add gap risk at the open; Monday's ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC and Macklem on Tuesday could materially shift this read