USD/CAD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Friday, 30 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/CAD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
22:46 UTC
Rebound off day low, testing range top · RSI 61 · price 1.39763
Higher lows from 1.3941 into the close, capped at the NY high.
Canada's flat GDP print at 12:30 UTC lifted price to the 1.3978 NY high. Oil-backed CAD demand then dragged it to a 1.3941 day low during NY hours. A late-Friday rebound of higher lows at 1.3946 and the 1.3960 swing low brought price back to test the NY high into the close.
Support: 1.3960, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3978, 1.3987
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3978 ny high breaks the session range and puts the 1.3987 asian high in play
Loss of the 1.3960 swing low breaks the rebound line and reopens the 1.3941 day low
Market shut for the weekend; Monday's ISM Manufacturing PMI at 15:00 UTC is the first scheduled risk to this read
After the 12:30 UTC Canada GDP miss lifted the pair to the 1.3977 NY high, oil-backed CAD demand drove a sweep of the London lows to a 1.3941 session low. Late NY has built a chain of rising lows into the 1.3960 swing low and has retraced most of that NY sell-off, with price now pressing the NY high as the week closes. RSI(14) is at 62, not stretched.
Support: 1.3960, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3977, 1.3988
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3977 NY high opens the overnight hi near 1.3988
Loss of the 1.3960 swing low breaks the rising lows and exposes the 1.3941 session low
Weekly close at 21:00 UTC brings weekend gap risk; Monday's ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.7) could materially shift this read
London broke the Asian low near 1.3959. The Canada GDP miss spiked price to the 1.3977 gdp high, which was rejected, and NY then printed a 1.3941 session low as oil-backed CAD demand returned. The late-NY bounce holds higher lows on the rising line but has stalled twice at the 1.3971 lower high, near the 78.6% of the 1.3977–1.3941 drop, with RSI(14) in the mid-50s.
Support: 1.3960, 1.3946, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3971, 1.3977
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3971 lower high opens a retest of the 1.3977 gdp high
Break of the rising line near 1.3960 turns focus back to the 1.3946 higher low and 1.3941 session low
Late Friday NY trade into the weekend is thin; Mon ISM Manufacturing (15:00 UTC) and Macklem on Tue are the next catalysts
Higher lows off 1.3941 session low, lower high capped at 1.3971.
The Canada GDP miss at 12:30 UTC spiked the pair to the 1.3977 gdp high, but oil-backed CAD demand pushed NY to a 1.3941 session low. The late-NY bounce was rejected twice at the 1.3971 late high. Price is now testing the rising tl near 1.3960, the 38.2% of that bounce, inside a 1.3941–1.3977 range.
Support: 1.3960, 1.3953, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3971, 1.3977
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3953 higher low breaks the rising tl and exposes the 1.3941 session low
M15 close above the 1.3971 late high reopens the 1.3977 gdp high
Thin liquidity after NY close into the weekly finish; ISM Manufacturing Mon 15:00 UTC is the next major risk
Oil-driven CAD strength took USD/CAD from the ny high at 1.3977, set after the Canada GDP and US ECI prints, to a session low at 1.3941 during NY hours. Late-NY higher lows lifted price back into the Asian range and through the 61.8% fib of that drop at 1.3964, with a small rejection at the 1.3971 late high.
Support: 1.3964, 1.3953, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3971, 1.3977
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3977 ny high, which is also the Asian range top, invalidates the intraday downtrend read
Failure to hold the 1.3953 swing low puts the 1.3941 session low back in play
Friday late NY into the weekly close; thin liquidity may distort the last bars
ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid Mon 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.3986; higher lows off 1.3941 since mid-NY.
CAD stayed firm on $103+ WTI, and USD/CAD broke below the Asian range and the 1.3968 pivot during London. A failed GDP-led bounce stalled at the 1.39775 NY high, then price slid to a 1.39414 session low. Late NY has rebuilt higher lows along rising support, with the higher low at 1.3953, and price is now testing the 61.8% retrace near 1.3964 just under the pivot.
Support: 1.3953, 1.39414
Resistance: 1.3968, 1.39775
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3968 pivot breaks the lower-high sequence and exposes the 1.39775 NY high
Loss of the 1.3953 higher low breaks rising support and puts the 1.39414 session low back in play
Friday late-NY liquidity is thin; Monday's ISM Manufacturing (f/c 54.7) and Tuesday's Macklem speech could reset this read
Lower high at 1.3977, sweep to 1.3941, higher lows inside 1.3946–1.3959.
The Canada GDP miss lifted price to the 1.3977 NY high, but supply took over after the Chicago PMI miss. The drop swept the London low to a 1.3941 day low before the bar closed back near 1.3958. Late NY is grinding higher on higher lows from 1.3946, capped at the broken Asian low near 1.3959, which sits at the 50% retrace of the NY drop.
Support: 1.3946, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3959, 1.3977
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.3959 (asian low / 50% fib) opens a path back toward the 1.3977 ny high
Loss of the 1.3946 higher low and the rising trendline exposes the 1.3941 day low
Thin Friday liquidity into the weekly close; Monday ISM (f/c 54.7) could materially shift this read
Lower lows into NY session low, then higher-low recovery capped below 1.3960.
USDCAD faded the Canada GDP-miss spike to the NY high at 1.3977 and dropped to a session low at 1.3941, in line with the oil-driven CAD bid. Since London close, price has printed a higher low at 1.3946 but stalled at the 50% cap near 1.3959, the midpoint of the NY drop. RSI(14) is neutral near 55.
Support: 1.39461, 1.39414
Resistance: 1.39594
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3959 50% cap opens a retest of the 1.3977 NY high
Failure to hold the 1.3946 higher low exposes the 1.3941 session low and resumes the lower-low chain
Thin post-NY liquidity; oil and Middle East headlines are the near-term swing factor, with ISM Mon and Macklem Tue as the next scheduled risks
19:03 UTC
Downtrend, pausing late NY · RSI 54 · price 1.39566
Lower highs and lower lows; tight 1.3946–1.3959 box off the session low.
London broke the Asian low near 1.3959. The Canada GDP-miss pop to the 1.3978 ny high was rejected, and NY printed a fresh session low at 1.3941 near the 1.3940 wedge base as oil kept CAD bid. Price now sits at the 42% of the ny selloff fib, boxed between the 1.3946 ny lows and the 1.3959 intraday cap, with RSI(14) neutral at 54.
Support: 1.39462, 1.39414
Resistance: 1.39594, 1.39775
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3959 intraday cap and the 50% of the ny selloff fib (~1.3960) opens a retest of the 1.3978 ny high
Loss of the 1.3946 ny lows exposes the 1.3941 session low and the 1.3940 wedge base
Lower highs trendline from 1.3992 stays intact while price holds below ~1.3974
Thin late-Friday liquidity into the weekly close; ISM Manufacturing Mon 15:00 UTC is the next scheduled USD risk
Lower highs and lower lows across Asia, London and NY; small higher low off 1.3941.
Asia and London pressed lower from 1.3987. Canada's GDP stall lifted the pair at 12:30 UTC to a 1.3978 NY high before firm oil and a softer USD drove a fresh 1.3941 day low. Late in the NY session, price has built a higher low at 1.3946 and is retesting the broken 1.3960 Asian low from below, where the 50% fib of the NY drop also sits. RSI(14) is neutral near 49.
Support: 1.3946, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3960, 1.3966, 1.3978
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.3960 (asian low / 50% fib) reclaims the broken level, with the 1.3966 lower high next
Rejection at 1.3960 preserves the lower-high sequence; a loss of the 1.3946 higher low reopens the 1.3941 day low
A break above the 1.3978 ny high invalidates the intraday downtrend read
Thin late-Friday liquidity; oil and Middle East headlines over the weekend are the main CAD swing factor
The Canada GDP miss spiked the pair through the Asian range high to a 1.3977 NY high, but the move failed. Soft-USD and oil pressure then drove a fresh session low at 1.3941. Late in NY, a higher low at 1.3946 has carried price back to retest the broken asian low near 1.3960, level with the 50% of the NY drop fib; RSI(14) is neutral near 53.
Support: 1.3946, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3960
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.3960 asian low and the 50% NY drop fib would neutralise the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 1.3946 higher low reopens the 1.3941 session low
Rejection at the 1.3960 asian low keeps the 1.3977 ny high as the downtrend's lower-high cap
Thin late-Friday liquidity, with weekend oil and Middle East headlines a gap risk into Monday's ISM
Lower lows from Asia into NY; tight range 1.3946–1.3960 late NY.
The spike on the Canada GDP miss stalled at the 1.3977 session high, then faded to a fresh session low at 1.3941 with CAD firm on oil. Late NY price is holding micro lows near 1.3946 and pressing the 1.3960 bounce high, which sits at the 50% retracement, with RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 1.3946, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3960, 1.3977
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3960 bounce high and 50% fib opens the 1.3977 session high
Failure at 1.3946 micro lows and a break of the 1.3941 session low extends the lower-low chain
Thin liquidity into Friday's close; next scheduled USD risk is ISM Manufacturing on Mon Nov 2
Lower highs from 1.3978 NY high, higher lows since 1.3941.
Canada's flat August GDP lifted the pair from 1.3949 to a 1.3978 NY high, but oil-backed CAD strength reversed it to a 1.3941 session low within the hour. Higher lows since then have price retesting the broken Asian low at 1.3960 from below, where EMA50 and the 50% retrace of the NY selloff converge; RSI(14) is neutral near 48.
Support: 1.3946, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3960, 1.3966, 1.3978
What it said to watch
M15 close above the Asian low at 1.3960 and the 1.3966 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and exposes the 1.3978 NY high
Loss of the 1.3946 higher low reopens the 1.3941 session low and the 1.3940 wedge base
WTI swings on Middle East headlines can override intraday structure into the thin Friday close
17:46 UTC
Downtrend, pausing after NY low · RSI 41 · price 1.3954
Lower highs from the 1.3977 NY high, now coiling 1.3946–1.3959.
The early-NY rally was rejected at the 1.3977 NY high, in line with the Asian range top. The reversal broke the London low near 1.3949 and printed a day low at 1.3941 as oil-backed CAD strength and softer US yields extended the slide. After London close, price is holding a late low at 1.3946, capped by a lower high at 1.3959 just above the 38.2% fib, with RSI(14) near 41 below both EMAs.
Support: 1.3946, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3959, 1.3964, 1.3977
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3959 lower high and the 61.8% fib at 1.3964 would neutralise the post-NY downtrend read
Failure to hold the 1.3946 late low and the 1.3941 day low confirms another lower-low leg toward the 1.3920 zone
Reclaim of the 1.3977 NY high would mark a false break of the London low
Friday late-NY liquidity is thin, with no scheduled USD/CAD data before Monday's ISM; oil or Middle East headlines are the main swing risk
17:16 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through NY · RSI 41 · price 1.39485
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.3978 NY high; Asian low broken in London.
The 12:30 UTC Canada GDP miss lifted the pair to a 1.3978 NY high, but that rally was sold back as USD softness on lower yields resumed. Price is down to a 1.3941 session low after London close, with lower highs at 1.3966 and 1.3955. The 16:30 UTC bounce met rejection at the 38.2% fib, and price sits below the descending trendline.
Support: 1.39414
Resistance: 1.39554, 1.39661, 1.39775
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3955 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 1.3941 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery through the 1.3966 lower high puts the 1.3978 NY high back in play
Thin late-Friday NY trade into the weekly close can distort swings. ISM Manufacturing on Monday is the next scheduled USD risk
Lower highs and lower lows; late-NY box 1.3941–1.3959.
The Canada GDP miss lifted the pair to a NY high of 1.3977, but it was rejected after the Chicago PMI miss. Soft USD and firm oil then drove a new session low at 1.3941, extending the lower-low chain from the Asian range (1.3959–1.3987). After London close, price is boxed between 1.3941 and 1.3959, capped at the 50% fib of the NY-high-to-low drop, with RSI(14) at about 39 and ATR near 10 pips.
Support: 1.39414, 1.3920
Resistance: 1.39594, 1.39775
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3941 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3920 zone
M15 close above 1.3959 (50% fib, rebound high) breaks the late-NY lower-high cap and exposes the 1.3977 ny high
Friday weekly close in under 4h; Monday's ISM (15:00 UTC) is the next scheduled USD risk
Asian range broken lower; post-GDP spike faded into lower highs and lower lows.
London broke the 1.3959 Asian low. The NY-session spike on the Canada GDP miss to the 1.3978 NY high then faded into a chain of lower highs along a falling trendline, in line with the soft USD and firm oil backdrop. A wick to the 1.3941 session low drew a rejection, but price is back near the 1.3949 London low and below the 38.2% fib of the post-GDP leg, RSI(14) ~42.
Support: 1.3949, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3959, 1.3966, 1.3978
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3966 lower high breaks the trendline and the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 1.3941 session low confirms a fresh lower-low; holding the 1.3949 London low keeps the rejection in play
Reclaim of the 1.3959 Asian low and the 50% fib of the post-GDP leg would neutralise the downtrend read
Fed's Musalem remarks (16:30 UTC) into the Friday close could materially shift this read
London broke the Asian low at 1.3959. NY's post-12:30 UTC spike to the 1.3978 ny high met rejection, and the pair slid to a 1.3941 session low, with firm oil and softer US yields keeping CAD bid. The rebound stalled at the 50% fib of that drop near 1.3960, and price now sits back under the 1.3949 london low with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 1.3941, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.3949, 1.3959, 1.3978
What it said to watch
Fed's Musalem at 16:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the 1.3959 asian low breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.3941 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.3900 round number
A move through the 1.3978 ny high invalidates the intraday downtrend read
London broke the Asian range low; NY printed a lower low at 1.3941, then snapped back.
London broke below the Asian range and pressed the london low at 1.3949. The Canada GDP miss (0% vs 0.2%) sparked a spike to the 1.3977 ny high, but it faded as oil strength and a soft USD took over. The late-NY sweep to a 1.3941 session low was rejected sharply, and price now sits just under ema20 (~1.3960), between the 38.2% and 50% of the NY sell-off, with RSI(14) neutral at 47.
Support: 1.3949, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3960, 1.3977, 1.3987
What it said to watch
Close back below the 1.3949 london low reopens the 1.3941 session low
Recovery above ema20 / NY sell-off 50% near 1.3960 shifts focus to the 1.3977 ny high
Close above the lower highs line and the 1.3987 asian high invalidates the intraday downtrend
Fed's Musalem at 16:30 UTC could move USD into the London close
16:02 UTC
Intraday downtrend, sharp rejection at the low · RSI 45 · price 1.3957
Lower highs/lower lows; NY high 1.3977 capped, wick rejection at 1.3941 session low.
London broke below the Asian range and ground lower. The NY high at 1.3977, set after the Canada GDP miss and Chicago PMI, gave way to a sharp leg through the london low to a 1.3941 session low. The 15:45 bar rejected that low hard. Price now sits between the 38.2% and fib 50% retracement of the NY sell-off, below EMA20/50, with oil-backed CAD strength the backdrop.
Support: 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3960, 1.3977, 1.3987
What it said to watch
Fed's Daly (16:00Z) and Musalem (16:30Z) could materially shift this read
Rejection at the fib 50% near 1.3960 keeps the lower-high sequence intact
M15 close back above the 1.3977 ny high invalidates the lower-high chain; 1.3987 asian high next
Failure to hold the 1.3941 session low confirms a fresh lower-low after the London low sweep
Lower highs from 1.3992; NY range 1.3949–1.3977 with a 1.3950 floor.
London broke the Asian low. Flat Canada GDP at 12:30 UTC sparked a 15-pip pop, but the NY bounce saw rejection at the 1.3977 NY high, under trend resistance from the 1.3992 prior high. Price is back on the 1.3949 session low for a fourth test, with a 1.3966 lower high and RSI(14) near 43 as firm oil and a soft USD keep CAD supported.
Support: 1.3949
Resistance: 1.3966, 1.3977, 1.3992
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3949 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Close above the 1.3966 lower high puts the 1.3977 NY high back in play; a break of trend resistance toward the 1.3992 prior high negates the downtrend read
Fed's Daly 16:00Z and Musalem 16:30Z could materially shift this read
London close at 16:00 UTC may thin follow-through off the 1.3950 floor
15:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, ranging at the day low · RSI 46 · price 1.39532
Lower highs into a triple-tested 1.3949 day low.
London broke below the Asian low at 1.3959 and extended to a 1.3949 day low. The flat Canada August GDP print lifted the pair to a 1.3978 post-GDP high, but that move has fully retraced in NY on broad USD softness. Price is back on the day low for a third test, under a line of lower highs, with RSI(14) mid-40s and price below EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 1.3949, 1.3940
Resistance: 1.3966, 1.3978, 1.3987
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3949 day low extends the London downtrend toward the cited 1.3940 wedge base
Reclaim of the 1.3966 swing high breaks the lower highs line and reopens the 1.3978 post-GDP high
1.3987 Asia high caps the 24h range above
Fed's Daly at 16:00 UTC and Musalem at 16:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows; NY spike fully retraced back to the day low.
London broke below the 1.3959 Asian low and ground to a 1.3949 day low. The soft Canada GDP print lifted price to a 1.3977 NY high, but that move was rejected and fully unwound within two hours as the broad USD softness reasserted. Price is back at the day low, below EMA20/50, with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 1.3949, 1.3940
Resistance: 1.3959, 1.3977, 1.3992
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3949 day low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3940 wedge base
Reclaim of the 1.3959 Asian low puts price back in the intraday range; the 1.3977 NY high caps it
Break of the lower-highs line and the 1.3992 prior high would negate the downtrend structure
Fed's Daly (16:00 UTC) and Musalem (16:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
USDCAD broke the Asian low at 1.3959 at London open and has printed lower highs from the 1.3992 prior high, with broad USD softness behind the grind. The flat Canada GDP print sparked a spike to the 1.3978 NY high, rejected near the 61.8% fib of the day's decline. Price has fully unwound that move and is retesting the 1.3949 session low.
Support: 1.3949
Resistance: 1.3959, 1.3978, 1.3992
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3949 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 1.3959 Asian low shifts the read toward a 1.3949–1.3978 range
Close above the 1.3978 NY high breaks the lower-highs line
Fed's Daly (16:00 UTC) and Musalem (16:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Higher lows since the GDP release, capped below 1.3977.
London ground lower to a 1.3949 session low below the Asian range. The flat Canada GDP print at 12:30 UTC reversed the move into a false break, and NY hours have printed higher lows at 1.3960. The 1.3977 GDP high is capping, with RSI(14) near 58 and price retesting the 38.2% of the GDP leg fib around 1.3967.
Support: 1.3960, 1.3949
Resistance: 1.3977, 1.3992
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3977 GDP high opens the 1.3992 prior high
Loss of the 1.3960 higher low breaks the higher lows trendline and exposes the 1.3949 session low
Fed's Daly (16:00 UTC) and Musalem (16:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
14:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend off London low · RSI 61 · price 1.39739
Higher highs and higher lows since 12:15 UTC; Asian range reclaimed.
London broke the asian low and set a double bottom at the 1.3949 london low. The flat Canada GDP print at 12:30 UTC then drove a 15-pip NY breakout back into the Asian range. Price is stepping up along NY rising lows and pressing the 1.3977 ny high, with RSI(14) near 61 and not stretched.
Support: 1.3960, 1.3949
Resistance: 1.3977, 1.3987, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3977 ny high opens the 1.3987 asian high, with the 1.4000 round number above
Failure to hold the 1.3960 asian low (61.8% of the ny rally fib) breaks the higher-low chain
Break of the NY rising lows trendline would signal the GDP-driven leg is stalling
Fed's Daly (16:00 UTC) and Musalem (16:30 UTC) could shift USD and this read; ATR near 8 pips
Double bottom at 1.3950, higher lows under 1.3975 cap.
London extended the Asia slide to a 1.3949 session low. The flat Canada August GDP print (0.0% vs 0.2%) then sparked a 25-pip rebound that completed a double bottom near 1.3950. Mid-NY, price is stalling just under the 1.3975 asian high, with a higher low holding at 1.3960.
Support: 1.3960, 1.3949
Resistance: 1.3975, 1.3992
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3975 asian high opens the 1.3992 prior high
Loss of the 1.3960 higher low breaks the rebound sequence and puts the 1.3949 double btm back in play
Chicago PMI (f/c 56.1) now, then Fed's Daly 16:00 UTC and Musalem 16:30 UTC, could shift this read
London took price below the asian low to a 1.3949 day low before Canada's flat August GDP (0% vs 0.2%) sparked a 25-pip rebound into the first hour of NY. The bounce has been rejected twice at the 1.3975 ny high, the 61.8% retrace of the 1.3992–1.3949 leg, and price is chopping just above the 1.3959 asian low.
Support: 1.3959, 1.3949
Resistance: 1.3975, 1.3987
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3975 ny high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 1.3987 asian high
Failure to hold the 1.3959 asian low reopens the 1.3949 day low
Chicago PMI now and Fed's Daly (16:00 UTC) / Musalem (16:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
13:46 UTC
Downtrend, early NY bounce · RSI 55 · price 1.39669
London false break of Asian low, reclaim into Asian range, capped at Asian high.
London broke the 1.3959 asian low and printed a 1.3949 session low. The flat Canada GDP print (0% vs 0.2%) then drove a 25-pip squeeze back into the Asian range. The bounce was rejected at the 1.3975 asian high, which lines up with the 61.8% retracement of the decline fib. Price is holding the 1.3964 pullback low, just above EMA20/EMA50, with RSI(14) near 55.
Support: 1.3964, 1.3959, 1.3949
Resistance: 1.3975, 1.3992, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3975 asian high / 61.8% fib opens the 1.3992 swing high and the 1.4000 round number
A break of the 1.3964 pullback low and a close back below the 1.3959 asian low reopen the 1.3949 session low
Chicago PMI (due now), Daly at 16:00 UTC and Musalem at 16:30 UTC could materially shift this read
London lower lows to 1.3949, double bottom confirmed by break of 1.3964 neckline.
London pushed below the 1.3959 Asian low to a 1.3949 session low, a false break once the flat Canada GDP print (0% vs 0.2%) at 12:30 UTC triggered a 25-pip reversal through the 1.3964 neckline and the London trendline. Price is now pressing the 1.3976 swing high, about a 61.8% retrace of the move from the Asian high, with RSI(14) near 61 and ATR(14) around 6 pips.
Support: 1.3964, 1.3959, 1.3949
Resistance: 1.3976, 1.3987, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3976 swing high opens the 1.3987 Asian high and the 1.4000 round number
Slip back below the 1.3964 neckline puts the 1.3959 Asian low and 1.3949 session low back in play
Rejection near the 61.8% retrace of the Asian high fib keeps the London decline intact
Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC, then Fed's Daly and Musalem, could materially shift this read
Double bottom at 1.3949–50; GDP spike broke neckline and falling trendline.
London took out the 1.3959 Asian low and extended the falling-trendline downtrend to a double bottom at 1.3949–50. The flat Canada GDP print (0% vs 0.2%) at 12:30 UTC drove a 16-pip spike through the 1.3964 neckline and the trendline. Early NY is now pressing the 1.3968 GDP spike high, which sits on the 50% fib of the Asian-high drop. RSI(14) is neutral near 55.
Support: 1.3964, 1.3949
Resistance: 1.3968, 1.3976, 1.3987
What it said to watch
Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC, then Daly 16:00 and Musalem 16:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
An M15 close back below the 1.3964 neckline undoes the double bottom and exposes the 1.3949 london low
An M15 close above the 1.3976 asia ceiling opens the path to the 1.3987 asian high
London pushed under the 1.3959 Asian low and tagged a 1.3949 session low twice. The flat Canada GDP print at 12:30 UTC then lifted price 16 pips through the London trendline. Price is pinned at the 1.3968 data spike high near the 50% retrace of the Asian high-to-session low drop, sitting just above EMA50.
Support: 1.3959, 1.3949
Resistance: 1.3968, 1.3976, 1.3987
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.3976 range top opens the 1.3987 asian high
Return below the 1.3959 asian low negates the false break and puts the 1.3949 session low back in play
Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC and Fed's Daly/Musalem from 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
12:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, data bar testing it · RSI 49 · price 1.39619
London lower highs and lower lows below the Asian range; twin lows near 1.3949.
London broke the asian low at 1.3959 and ground down to a 1.3949 session low. Each bounce was capped under a falling trendline as soft USD and firm CAD extended the three-day slide. The 12:30 UTC ECI/Canada GDP bar lifted price about 11 pips back to 1.3962, between the 50% and 61.8% of the London leg fib and just under the 1.3964 lower high.
Support: 1.39587, 1.39492
Resistance: 1.3964, 1.39724
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3964 lower high breaks the falling trendline and completes the double bottom; the 1.3972 london high is next above
Close back below the 1.3959 asian low puts the 1.3949 session low back in play; losing it extends the lower-low chain toward 1.3940
Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC and Fed's Daly (16:00 UTC) and Musalem (16:30 UTC) could shift the read after the ECI/GDP release
12:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 41 · price 1.39562
Asian low broken, LH/LL chain under falling trendline.
Thursday's post-GDP spike to 1.4014 fully unwound. London extended the Asian slide through the 1.3959 Asian low to a session low at 1.3950 on broad post-FOMC USD softness. The late-London bounce was rejected at the 1.3964 bounce high, just under the falling trendline from the 1.3976 Asian high. Price sits near the 50% fib of that leg into the NY open.
Support: 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3964, 1.3976
What it said to watch
US ECI and Canada Aug GDP both hit at 12:30 UTC, on the current bar, and can reset the intraday range
M15 close above the 1.3964 bounce high breaks the falling trendline and the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.3950 session low extends the lower-low chain
Daly (16:00 UTC) and Musalem (16:30 UTC) remarks during NY hours
London lower highs, Asian low broken; 1.3950 tested twice and held.
London broke the 1.3959 Asian low and pushed to a session low at 1.3950, with USD soft on lower yields and oil supporting CAD. Two tests of 1.3950 held, and the late-London bounce to the 1.3964 swing high retraced about half of the leg down from the London open high. Price is back at the Asian low, in line with EMA20.
Support: 1.39587, 1.39498
Resistance: 1.3964, 1.39682, 1.3976
What it said to watch
US ECI and Canada Aug GDP both print at 12:30 UTC (~15 min) and could materially shift this read
An M15 close above the 1.3964 swing high and the 1.3968 lower high breaks the London lower-high chain; the 1.3976 London open high sits above
Failure to hold the 1.3950 session low resumes the lower-low sequence and voids the double-test read
London lower-high chain, double rejection at 1.3950.
London broke the 1.3958 asian low and stretched the lower-high sequence to a 1.3950 session low, where two probes were rejected before a 12-pip spike to 1.3964 (spike high) poked through the London trend line late in the session. Price now sits on ema20 at the 38.2% fib with RSI(14) near 42, while soft USD and firm oil keep CAD supported ahead of the 12:30 UTC data.
Support: 1.3958, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3964, 1.3968, 1.3976
What it said to watch
Canada Aug GDP (f/c 0.2%) and US ECI (f/c 0.8%) both print at 12:30 UTC, about 30 min out; the joint release could materially shift this read
Close above the 1.3968 lower high breaks the London lower-high chain; the 1.3976 swing high is next
Failure to hold the 1.3950 session low resumes the downtrend toward the ~1.3940 falling-wedge base
Slip back below the 1.3958 asian low returns price to the London range and marks the spike high as a rejection
Lower-high/lower-low chain below broken Asian low.
London broke the Asian low at 1.3959 and stepped lower in a lower-high chain to a session low at 1.3950, as softer US yields kept USD/CAD under pressure. The 11:00 bounce stalled at the old asian low, a retest that held. RSI(14) sits near 35, not stretched.
Support: 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3959, 1.3968
What it said to watch
US ECI and Canada GDP, both at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Break below the 1.3950 session low extends the lower-low chain
M15 close above the 1.3968 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and the downtrend read
1.3960–1.3966 London leg fib (38.2–61.8%) overlaps the asian low, area to watch for rejection or break
Lower highs and lower lows; Asian range broken to the downside.
London broke the Asian low at 1.3959 and printed a fresh session low at 1.3950 as the USD slide ran into a third day. Lower highs at the Asian high 1.3976 and 1.3968 define the sequence. The bounce off 1.3950 is stalling at the broken asian low and EMA20 near 1.3960, with RSI(14) at 41.
Support: 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3959, 1.3968, 1.3976
What it said to watch
US ECI and Canada Aug GDP both land at 12:30 UTC; the simultaneous release could materially shift this read
An M15 close above the lower high at 1.3968 breaks the lower-highs trendline and the downtrend read
Rejection at the asian low at 1.3959, the fib 38.2% area, keeps the retest intact
Failure to hold the session low at 1.3950 extends the lower-low chain
Lower highs through London, Asian range low broken.
London broke the Asian low at 1.3959 and has printed a chain of lower highs below the descending trendline into a session low near 1.3950, extending the post-FOMC USD slide and CAD strength. RSI(14) near 30 and ATR around 4.6 pips show a slow, orderly drift rather than a flush. The 1.3968 swing high and the 1.3987 Asian high mark the upper structure.
Support: 1.3950, 1.3940
Resistance: 1.3959, 1.3968, 1.3987
What it said to watch
US ECI and Canada Aug GDP, both at 12:30 UTC in about 75 minutes, could materially shift this read
A sustained break below the 1.3950 session low exposes the 1.3940 wedge base flagged in the CAD digest
An M15 close back above the 1.3959 Asian low and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence
A recovery through the 1.3968 swing high would mark a failed range break toward the 1.3987 Asian high
London broke the Asian low at 1.3959 and price has ground to a session low at 1.3954 along a line of falling highs. The move extends the fade from Thursday's GDP-driven spike to 1.4014, with soft USD and lower yields doing the work. RSI(14) near 27 is stretched but not extreme, and ATR is about 4 pips with the 1.3950 round number just below.
Support: 1.39543, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.39587, 1.39682, 1.39759
What it said to watch
Canada GDP and US ECI, both at 12:30 UTC (~1.5h), could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the 1.3959 Asian low turns the range break into a false break
Close above the 1.3968 lower high breaks the falling-highs sequence; the 1.3976 Asian high is the next level above
Failure to hold the 1.3950 round number extends the lower-low chain
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.4014 spike faded; London broke below the Asian low.
USDCAD has held a lower-high, lower-low sequence since the post-GDP spike to 1.4014 faded. London broke the 1.3959 Asian low and is now pressing a fresh session low at 1.3955, in line with the broad USD softness flagged in the digest. RSI(14) near 34 and ATR around 4 pips point to a slow grind rather than a flush, with the 1.3950 round number the next reference below.
Support: 1.3955, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3959, 1.3968, 1.3974
What it said to watch
Canada Aug GDP and US ECI both land at 12:30 UTC (~1h45m); the dual release could materially shift this read
An M15 close back above the 1.3968 swing high breaks the lower-highs trendline
Reclaiming the 1.3974 London high would neutralise the London-session decline
Acceptance below the 1.3950 round number extends the lower-low chain toward the ~1.3940 wedge base cited in the digest
Lower highs since 06:45 UTC, Asian low broken in London.
London extended the overnight slide on broad USD softness. Price slipped below the Asian low at 1.3959 and set a session low at 1.3957, with a lower high at 1.3968 under the 1.3976 pre-London high. RSI(14) sits near 33, not oversold. ATR is about 5 pips as bars compress ahead of the 12:30 UTC data.
Support: 1.39565, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.39587, 1.39682, 1.3976
What it said to watch
Canada Aug GDP and US ECI, both at 12:30 UTC (~2h), could materially shift this read
An M15 close back above the 1.3968 lower high breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 1.3957 session low leaves the 1.3950 round number exposed
A recovery back inside the Asian range above 1.3959 would mark the break as a false break
Lower highs below the Asian high; London broke the Asian low.
London slipped below the Asian low at 1.3959 and printed a fresh window low near 1.3957, extending the fade of Thursday's GDP spike to 1.4014 as soft USD and falling yields weigh. A lower high at 1.3968 sits under the 1.3976 Asian high, and the NY bounce at 1.3992 is the last swing high. RSI(14) near 32 is soft but not oversold.
Support: 1.3950, 1.3920
Resistance: 1.3968, 1.3976, 1.3992
What it said to watch
Canada Aug GDP and US ECI, both at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the 1.3968 lower high negates the Asian-low break
A break of the 1.3976 Asian high reopens the 1.3992 NY bounce high
Failure at the 1.3950 round number exposes the 1.3920 support zone
10:02 UTC
Downtrend, compressing at lows · RSI 31 · price 1.39586
Lower highs pressing flat Asian low base.
Yesterday's post-GDP bounce to 1.4014 has fully faded on soft USD, and London has now tested the asian low near 1.3958 four times while capping each lower high, the latest at 1.3968. Price sits below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 31, sliding but not yet oversold, and the overnight range top at 1.3975 lines up with the 50% retrace of the swing high to low move.
Support: 1.3958, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3968, 1.3975, 1.3992
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3958 asian low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.3950 round number
Close back above the 1.3968 lower high and the lower-high line breaks the London compression
Canada Aug GDP and US ECI both at 12:30 UTC (~2.5h) could materially shift this read
Recovery through 1.3975 range top, then 1.3992 swing high, would unwind the overnight leg lower
Lower highs from 1.4014, flat lows at 1.3958-1.3960.
The post-US GDP spike to 1.4014 has faded into a lower-high chain, with London clipping the Asian low to a 1.3958 session low and price retesting it again mid-London, RSI(14) near 34. CAD firmness on soft USD and oil is driving it, and the bounce stalled at the 1.3968 London high.
Support: 1.3958, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3968, 1.3976, 1.3987
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3958 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.3950 round number
Reclaim of the 1.3976 swing high breaks the lower-highs trendline and the downtrend read; 1.3987 asian high next above
Canada Aug GDP and US ECI both at 12:30 UTC (~2h45m) could materially shift this read
09:32 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 37 · price 1.39625
Lower highs pressing into a flat 1.3958 floor.
USD/CAD has kept fading yesterday's 1.4014 spike, with a firm CAD after the BoC hike and a soft USD. London briefly swept the asian low at 1.3958 before closing back above it. Lower highs at the 1.3976 range top, 1.3972 and 1.3968 form a descending trendline pressing into that floor, with price below both EMAs and RSI(14) near 37.
Support: 1.3958, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3968, 1.3976
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3958 asian low confirms a lower-low and puts the 1.3950 round number in play
Close above the trendline and the 1.3976 range top invalidates the lower-high sequence
Canada Aug GDP and US ECI both at 12:30 UTC (~3h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.4014; Asian low swept, stalling under trendline.
USDCAD keeps printing lower highs from Thursday's 1.4014 PCE spike. Early London dipped about half a pip below the Asian low before stalling in the mid-1.396s, so the 1.3958 session low is holding for now and price is pinned under the falling trendline. A soft USD on US-Iran peace hopes and post-BoC CAD firmness keep the pair heavy below 1.40, and RSI(14) near 41 is not stretched.
Support: 1.3958, 1.3920
Resistance: 1.3976, 1.3992, 1.4014
What it said to watch
Canada Aug GDP and US ECI both land at 12:30 UTC; either could materially shift this read
M15 close above the falling trendline and the 1.3976 Asian high breaks the lower-high chain
Acceptance below the 1.3958 session low extends the downtrend toward the 1.3920 zone
Reclaim of the 1.3992 swing high puts the 1.4014 PCE spike back in view
Lower highs from 1.4014, marginal lower low at London open.
The post-PCE spike to the 1.4014 prior high on Thursday faded into a chain of lower highs, with soft USD and a firm CAD after the BoC hike behind the drift. London open made a sweep just under the Asian low at 1.3958 (session low) and closed back above it, and price has stalled in the low 1.3960s with RSI(14) near 39 and ATR around 4.6 pips. Price is compressing below the 1.3976 Asian high ahead of 12:30 UTC data.
Support: 1.3958, 1.3940
Resistance: 1.3976, 1.3992, 1.4014
What it said to watch
Canada Aug GDP and US ECI at 12:30 UTC (~3.5h) could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.3976 Asian high breaks the lower-high line and puts the 1.3992 prior swing back in play
Failure to hold the 1.3958 session low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 1.3940 wedge base
Recovery through 38.2% of the 1.4014 spike retrace (~1.3980) would challenge the downtrend read
Lower-high chain since the PCE spike; London marginally undercut the Asian low.
Yesterday's PCE spike to 1.4014 faded through NY, and the soft-USD drift has kept a lower-high chain intact from the 1.3987 asian high down to the 1.3976 lower high. London open pushed to a 1.3958 london low, a marginal sweep of the Asian low, before a modest bounce to 1.3965 with RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 1.3958, 1.3920
Resistance: 1.3976, 1.3987, 1.4000
What it said to watch
Canada Aug GDP and US ECI both at 12:30 UTC (~4h) could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.3976 lower high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the descending sequence; 1.3987 asian high and 1.4000 round number sit above
Failure to hold the 1.3958 london low extends the move toward the 1.3900/1.3920 support zone
Lower highs since 1.4014; London marginally broke the Asian low and stalled.
The pce fade from the 1.4014 high has printed a chain of lower highs, in line with a soft USD and firm CAD. London open pushed half a pip through the 1.3959 Asian low to a 1.3958 session low and has stalled there. RSI(14) is near 34 with ATR around 4 pips.
Support: 1.3958, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3976, 1.3992
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.3958 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3950 round number
Recovery above the 1.3976 asian high breaks the lower-high trendline; 1.3992 swing high is next above
Canada Aug GDP and US ECI both at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
London broke below Asian range floor; fresh session low at 1.3958.
The post-US GDP spike to 1.4014 faded through NY. The first hour of London then broke the 1.3962–1.3976 Asian range and printed a session low at 1.3958, with RSI(14) near 33. Lower highs from the 1.3992 swing high continue to cap price as softer US yields weigh on USD.
Support: 1.3958, 1.3950, 1.3940
Resistance: 1.3976, 1.3992
What it said to watch
Sustained trade below the 1.3958 session low exposes the 1.3950 round number and the 1.3940 wedge base
M15 close back above the 1.3976 asian high invalidates the range-break read
Canada Aug GDP and US ECI, both at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
A reclaim of the lower-highs trendline from the 1.3992 swing high would break the downtrend sequence
LH/LL chain from 1.4014; tight range 1.3962–1.3976 above the asian low.
Yesterday's spike to 1.4014 after the US GDP beat faded into a lower-high chain under the falling trendline. Asia set a fresh low at 1.3959 as USD softness and the post-BoC CAD bid extended, then held a 1.3962–1.3976 range. Early Europe rejected the range top, left a lower high at 1.3972, and price sits near the range floor into the London open with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 1.3959, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3972, 1.3976, 1.3987
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3959 asian low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3950 round number
Reclaim of the 1.3972 lower high and 1.3976 range top breaks the falling trendline; 1.3987 asian high above
Canada Aug GDP and US ECI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Retracement of the 1.4014–1.3959 leg has stayed shallow; a move through the asian high would test it
07:46 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in a tight range · RSI 48 · price 1.39699
Lower high below asia high; rising lows inside 1.3959–1.3976 range since 01:15 UTC.
USD/CAD faded Thursday's post-US GDP spike to 1.4014, then slid through Asia from the asia high at 1.3987 to the asian low at 1.3959, a fresh low since mid-September on softer US yields and a firm CAD after the BoC. Since then price has held a 1.3959–1.3976 range with rising lows. London open was rejected at the range top, which coincides with the 61.8% retrace of the Asia drop, and the London low at 1.3965 held.
Support: 1.39654, 1.39587
Resistance: 1.3976, 1.39874, 1.4000
What it said to watch
Canada Aug GDP and US ECI, both at 12:30 UTC, could break the range in either direction
An M15 close above the 1.3976 range top opens the asia high at 1.3987, with the 1.4000 round number above
A break of the london low at 1.3965 and the rising-lows line puts the 1.3959 asian low back in play
A close below the 1.3959 asian low extends the downtrend to fresh lows since September
07:31 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating above the Asia low · RSI 44 · price 1.39679
Lower highs from 1.3991; tight 1.3962–1.3976 range since the 1.3959 low.
USD/CAD extended the fade from Thursday's 1.4014 post-US GDP day high to a fresh Asia low at 1.3959, with softer US yields and the post-BoC CAD bid driving the move. Price has since held a 1.3962–1.3976 range, and London open saw a rejection at the range top. RSI(14) sits near 44, below both EMAs; the bounce has stalled near the 23.6% fib of the 1.4014 drop.
Support: 1.3959, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3976, 1.3991, 1.4014
What it said to watch
Canada Aug GDP and US ECI, both at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 1.3959 asia low confirms a lower-low, with the 1.3950 round number next
M15 close above the 1.3976 range top and the lower-high line invalidates the consolidation read
Recovery through the 1.3991 swing high would put the 1.4014 day high back in view
07:16 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in a tight range · RSI 44 · price 1.39691
Lower highs from 1.4014, Asia range 1.3959–1.3976.
Thursday's US-data spike to the 1.4014 prior high faded. The 1.3992 swing high capped the late-NY bounce, and Asia set a 1.3959 session low on softer US yields and a firm CAD. Since then price has held between the 1.3962 range base and the 1.3976 range top, near the 23.6% retracement of the fade. The London open is slipping back toward the range base, with RSI(14) in the mid-40s.
Support: 1.3962, 1.3959
Resistance: 1.3976, 1.3992, 1.4014
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.3959 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3940/1.3950 zone
Close above the 1.3976 range top reopens the 38.2% fib near 1.3980, then the 1.3992 swing high
Canada Aug GDP and US ECI, both at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read; Chicago PMI follows at 13:45 UTC
07:02 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in a tight range · RSI 47 · price 1.39726
Lower highs from 1.4014; post-Asia-low range 1.3962–1.3976.
Thursday's post-GDP spike to the 1.4014 prior high faded into a lower-high sequence. The Asia session then broke lower from the 1.3987 asia high to a 1.3959 session low on soft-USD and firm-CAD flows. Since 01:15 UTC price has held a 1.3962 range floor to 1.3976 range top band, capped near the 61.8% retrace, with ATR compressed near 3 pips into the London open.
Support: 1.3962, 1.3959
Resistance: 1.3976, 1.3987, 1.4014
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3976 range top (61.8% retrace) opens the 1.3987 asia high
Break of the 1.3959 session low resumes the lower-low sequence
US ECI and Canada Aug GDP both at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC and Fed's Daly at 16:00 UTC are further event risk
06:47 UTC
Downtrend, stalling into a tight range · RSI 50 · price 1.39755
Lower highs from 1.4014 and 1.3987, Asia low 1.3959, now a higher low and a 1.3969–1.3976 range.
Thursday's post-GDP high at 1.4014 faded, and the early-Asia leg from the 1.3987 swing high bottomed at the 1.3959 Asia low as US-Iran diplomacy hopes kept USD soft. A higher low at 1.3962 has followed, and price is coiling between the 1.3969 range floor and the 1.3976 range top. Into London open the range top lines up with the 61.8% of the Asia drop and EMA50; RSI(14) is flat near 50.
Support: 1.3969, 1.3962, 1.3959
Resistance: 1.3976, 1.3987, 1.4014
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.3976 range top and 61.8% level opens a retest of the 1.3987 swing high
A break of the 1.3969 range floor and rising support exposes the 1.3962 higher low and the 1.3959 asia low
London open in about 15 minutes typically resolves this narrow Asian range
US ECI and Canada Aug GDP, both at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read; a push back above 1.40 toward the 1.4014 post-gdp hi would mark the slide failing
06:16 UTC
Downtrend, basing in late Asia · RSI 57 · price 1.3974
Lower highs from 1.4014; tight 1.3969–1.3976 range above 1.3959 low.
The post-data fade from the 1.4014 GDP/PCE spike ran through NY into a 1.3959 session low early in Asia, as USD softness on US-Iran de-escalation extended. Since then the pair has held a higher low at 1.3962 and compressed into a 1.3969–1.3976 range ahead of the London open, still below the asia high and the 1.3980 38.2% retracement of that fade.
Support: 1.3969, 1.3959
Resistance: 1.3976, 1.3987, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3976 range top and the lower-high line opens the asia high at 1.3987
Loss of the 1.3969 range low exposes the 1.3959 session low; a break there confirms a lower-low
US ECI and Canada GDP, both at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read; reclaim of the 1.4000 round number would negate the post-data fade
06:02 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in late Asia · RSI 54 · price 1.39719
Lower highs from 1.4014; Asian low 1.3959 followed by a higher low at 1.3962, now compressing 1.3969–1.3976.
USDCAD slid through the Asia session from the 1.3987 swing high to a 1.3959 Asian low as USD faded on US-Iran de-escalation headlines. The rebound from the higher low at 1.3962 stalled just under the fib 61.8 at 1.3976, and price is now coiling above the 1.3969 micro low into the London open, with ATR(14) near 4 pips.
Support: 1.39687, 1.39621, 1.39587
Resistance: 1.39758, 1.39874, 1.4000
What it said to watch
Canada GDP and US ECI, both at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.3976 fib 61.8 opens the 1.3987 swing high, with the 1.4000 round number above
Failure to hold the 1.3969 micro low exposes the 1.3962 higher low and the rising support line
Break below the 1.3959 Asian low resumes the lower-low sequence
Lower highs from 1.4014; Asia higher low at 1.3962, tight base.
The post-US-data spike to 1.4014 was rejected during NY hours, and a lower-high sequence followed (1.3992, then a 1.3976 local high). Asia extended to a 1.3959 asian low on broad USD softness, then printed a higher low at 1.3962. Price is now pinned at the 23.6% fib in a 14-pip band ahead of London, with ATR near 4 pips.
Support: 1.3962, 1.3959, 1.3940
Resistance: 1.3976, 1.3980, 1.3992
What it said to watch
Canada GDP and US ECI, both at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Failure to hold 1.3962 higher low and 1.3959 asian low resumes the lower-low chain toward the 1.3940 wedge base
M15 close above 1.3976 local high and the 1.3980 fib 38.2 challenges the downtrend; 1.3992 lower high is the structural pivot
05:31 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in late Asia · RSI 57 · price 1.39736
Lower highs below 1.40; higher low at 1.3962 feeding a tight 1.3969–1.3976 range.
The yesterday post-GDP spike to 1.4014 was fully reversed. The pair then broke the early-Asia floor near 1.3980 (asia low) and printed a 1.3959 swing low as the dollar's safe-haven bid drained. A higher low at 1.3962 has lifted price into a tight 1.3969–1.3976 range, with the bounce high capping at the 50% retrace of the Asia drop fib and RSI(14) neutral near 57.
Support: 1.39687, 1.39621, 1.39587
Resistance: 1.39758, 1.3980, 1.39916
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3976 bounce high and the 1.3980 asia low (61.8% of the Asia drop fib) breaks the lower-high sequence and exposes the 1.3992 range top
Loss of the 1.3969 range low, then failure to hold the 1.3962 higher low, reopens the 1.3959 swing low
Canada Aug GDP and US ECI, both at 12:30 UTC, followed by Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC, could materially shift this read
London open in ~1.5h is the first test of the late-Asia range
05:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, basing late in Asia · RSI 52 · price 1.39753
Lower highs from the 1.4014 GDP spike; higher low at 1.3962 inside a 1.3959–1.3975 range.
The 1.4014 spike on yesterday's US GDP beat was rejected below 1.40. The NY lower high at 1.3991 capped the recovery, and the Asia session extended to a 1.3959 asian low as USD safe-haven demand drained. A higher low at 1.3962 has since formed, and price is pressing the 1.3975 range top, which coincides with the 50% fib of the 1.3991–1.3959 leg, about 2h before London open.
Support: 1.3962, 1.3959
Resistance: 1.3975, 1.3981, 1.3991
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.3975 range top and 50% fib opens the 1.3981 breakdown shelf, then the 1.3991 lower high
Loss of the 1.3962 higher low and the 1.3959 asian low resumes the lower-low sequence
Canada Aug GDP and US ECI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
05:03 UTC
Downtrend, stalling in late Asia · RSI 55 · price 1.39728
Lower highs from 1.4014; higher low at 1.3962 forming.
USDCAD has faded the 1.4014 prior high set in the post-US-data spike, slipping to a 1.3959 session low in Asia as US-Iran peace hopes kept the dollar soft. Late Asia shows a higher low at 1.3962 and a 1.3975 bounce high, with price pressing the falling trendline near 1.3978 and RSI(14) neutral around 55.
Support: 1.3962, 1.3959
Resistance: 1.3975, 1.3992, 1.4014
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3975 bounce high and falling trendline (~1.3978) breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 1.3992 session high in play
Failure to hold the 1.3962 higher low and 1.3959 session low resumes the lower-low chain
London open in ~2h may set a fresh range around the Asian low
US ECI and Canada Aug GDP both at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; 1.4014 prior high caps any data-driven spike
04:46 UTC
Downtrend, stalling in late Asia · RSI 44 · price 1.39709
Lower highs since 1.4014; tight base above the session low.
Asia session extended the three-day slide on the softer dollar tone. Price broke yesterday's 1.3965 low and printed a 1.3959 session low before a 1.3962 higher low. Late Asia, price is pinned near 1.3970 under EMA20 and capped by the 1.3975 swing high, which sits at the 50% retrace of the Asia leg.
Support: 1.3962, 1.3959, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3975, 1.3987, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3975 swing high breaks the lower-highs sequence, with the 1.3987 asia high next
Failure to hold the 1.3962 higher low and 1.3959 session low exposes the 1.3950 wedge base
CA Aug GDP and US ECI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; the 1.4000 round number caps above
04:31 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in late Asia · RSI 52 · price 1.39715
Lower highs from 1.4014; Asian low 1.3959 then higher low 1.3962.
USDCAD extended its slide into the Asia session to a 1.3959 Asian low as the USD's safe-haven bid faded. The rebound stalled at the 1.3975 bounce high, just short of the 61.8% fib of the leg off the 1.3987 lower high. Price now sits on EMA20 above a 1.3962 higher low ahead of the London open.
Support: 1.3962, 1.3959
Resistance: 1.3975, 1.3987, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3975 bounce high breaks the Asian consolidation and puts 1.3987 lower high in play
Failure to hold the 1.3962 higher low and 1.3959 Asian low confirms a fresh lower-low
Canada Aug GDP and US ECI, both 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
1.4000 round number caps the lower-high chain from yesterday's 1.4014 NY spike
Lower highs since 1.4014; tight 1.3962–1.3975 base.
The post-US GDP spike to 1.4014 was sold through NY, and a chain of lower highs (1.3992, the 1.3987 lower high, the 1.3975 bounce high) has followed as the 3-day USD softening extended into Asia. The Asia low at 1.3959 was followed by a higher low at 1.3962, and price is compressing under the falling trendline and below the 38.2% fib ahead of London open.
Support: 1.3962, 1.3959, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3975, 1.3987, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3975 bounce high and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high chain; the 1.3987 lower high and 1.4000 round number sit above
Failure to hold the 1.3962 higher low and the 1.3959 Asia low extends the downtrend toward the 1.3950 wedge base
Canada Aug GDP and US ECI, both at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.4014; Asian range broken lower.
Asia broke below the early Asian range near 1.3980 to a 1.3959 session low on persistent USD softness, extending the lower-high chain from the 1.4014 prior high set after the US GDP beat. The bounce off a 1.3962 higher low found rejection at the 1.3975 bounce high, just under the 61.8% fib, and price is sitting at EMA20.
Support: 1.39621, 1.39587
Resistance: 1.39753, 1.39874, 1.40141
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.3975 bounce high and the lower-high trendline breaks the intraday downtrend read
Failure to hold the 1.3962 higher low exposes the 1.3959 session low
Asian high at 1.3987 is the next cap if the bounce extends
Canada Aug GDP and US ECI, both at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
03:46 UTC
Downtrend, bounce off Asia low · RSI 51 · price 1.39748
Lower highs from 1.4014 intact, higher low at 1.3962.
Late in the Asia session, USD/CAD undercut yesterday's NY low to a 1.3959 asia low as the softer USD tone persisted. A higher low at 1.3962 then fed a two-bar bounce to 1.3975, near the 50% retrace of the 1.3992–1.3959 leg. Lower highs since the post-GDP spike to the 1.4014 gdp high remain intact, the descending trendline caps the bounce and RSI(14) is neutral near 51.
Support: 1.3962, 1.3959
Resistance: 1.3980, 1.3992, 1.4014
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3980 asia shelf and descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the path to the 1.3992 swing high
Failure to hold the 1.3962 higher low exposes a retest of the 1.3959 asia low
A move back above 1.4014 gdp high would negate the intraday downtrend read
Canada Aug GDP and US ECI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; Fed's Daly and Musalem follow at 16:00 and 16:30 UTC
03:31 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in Asia · RSI 39 · price 1.39702
Lower highs from 1.4014; tight 1.3962–1.3971 range after new session low.
The Asia session extended the three-day slide, with CAD firm after the BoC hike. Price slipped under Thursday's NY low near 1.3965 to a 1.3959 session low, then settled into a 1.3962–1.3971 range. It is now pressing the range top at the 38.2% retrace of the asia high leg, with lower highs at 1.3992 and 1.3987 still intact.
Support: 1.3962, 1.3959
Resistance: 1.3971, 1.3976, 1.3987
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3971 range top opens the fib 61.8 at 1.3976, then the 1.3987 asia high
Failure at the range low 1.3962 and a break of the 1.3959 session low extends the lower-low sequence
A close above the lower highs trendline near 1.3983 invalidates the intraday downtrend read
CA Aug GDP and US ECI, both at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from post-GDP spike; tight base below prior NY low.
USD/CAD spiked to its 1.4014 post-GDP high on Thursday's US beat, then faded through NY as USD lost safe-haven support. Asia extended the lower-high chain from the 1.3987 Asian high and undercut the NY low to a 1.3959 Asian low. Late in the Asian session, price is basing in a tight 1.3959–1.3970 band below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 33.
Support: 1.39587, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.39702, 1.39874, 1.40141
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3970 range top and the falling trendline near 1.3978 breaks the lower-high chain
Loss of the 1.3959 Asian low exposes the 1.3950 round number
Failure to reclaim the 38.2% fib of the post-GDP drop (~1.3980) keeps the downtrend intact
Canada Aug GDP and US ECI, both at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
03:02 UTC
Downtrend, stalling near lows · RSI 32 · price 1.39659
Lower highs from 1.4014; tight box above session low.
The Asia session broke down from its 1.3980 base, the breakdown level, and undercut Thursday's NY low at 1.3965 to a session low of 1.3959 as safe-haven USD demand faded. Price has since stalled in a 1.3962–1.3970 box, with the range top near the 38.2% fib of the Asia drop. Lower highs since the post-GDP spike to 1.4014 remain intact, and RSI(14) sits near 32.
Support: 1.39649, 1.39587
Resistance: 1.39702, 1.3980, 1.39916
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3970 range top and fib 38.2% would suggest the Asia drop is correcting
Failure to hold the 1.3959 session low extends the lower-low sequence
A reclaim of the 1.3980 breakdown level, or a test of the 1.3992 prior high, would break the lower-highs line
Canada Aug GDP and US ECI both land at 12:30 UTC and could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.4014; Asia broke Thursday's NY low, now basing above 1.3960.
The post-GDP spike to 1.4014 has fully unwound. Asia extended the slide from the 1.3987 drop origin to a 1.3959 session low as safe-haven USD demand eased, sweeping Thursday's 1.3965 NY low before closes moved back above it. Late in the Asia session price is compressing at 1.3962–1.3970, with the 38.2% retrace and the 1.3970 bounce high capping it and RSI(14) near 32.
Support: 1.39649, 1.39587, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.39702, 1.39874, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3970 bounce high (38.2%) opens the 50–61.8% zone at 1.3973–1.3976 and then the 1.3987 drop origin
Close back below the 1.3965 NY low and a break of the 1.3959 session low extend the lower-low chain toward the 1.3950 round number
Canada Aug GDP and US ECI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; 1.4000 round number is the upside reference if CAD pricing unwinds
London open in about 4h tests whether the Asian low holds
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.4014 spike; tight Asia consolidation.
The post-GDP spike to 1.4014 has fully reversed. The Asia session extended the slide, breaking the NY low at 1.3965 to print a 1.3959 Asia low as safe-haven USD demand faded. Price is now consolidating 1.3962–1.3970 under the lower-high line, with RSI(14) near 33 and the range top at 1.3970 capping.
Support: 1.39649, 1.39587, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.39702, 1.39808, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3970 range top and the lower-high line opens a retest of the 1.3981 Asia shelf
Break of the 1.3959 Asia low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.3950 round number
Reclaim of the 1.4000 psych level would invalidate the downtrend read
Canada Aug GDP and US ECI, both at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.3992; Asia sold through the ny low, now basing 1.3959–1.3970.
The Asia session extended the slide from the 1.3987 asian high as USD softened on the safe-haven unwind. It swept Thursday's 1.3965 ny low to the 1.3959 asian low, and the bounce stalled at the 1.3970 bounce high (38.2% of the Asian leg); price is back pressing the ny low. The lower-high chain from 1.3992 is intact, RSI(14) ~32 and ATR(14) ~5 pips.
Support: 1.3965, 1.3959
Resistance: 1.3970, 1.3987, 1.3992
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.3959 asian low confirms a lower-low and extends the Asia downtrend
Hold of the 1.3965 ny low keeps the 1.3959–1.3970 base in play; a close above the 1.3970 bounce high reclaims the 38.2% fib
Recovery above the 1.3987 asian high and 1.3992 lower high breaks the lower-high chain
Canada GDP and US ECI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
02:02 UTC
Downtrend, pausing near lows · RSI 31 · price 1.39666
Lower highs from 1.4014; Asian range broken lower.
The post-GDP spike to 1.4014 has unwound into a chain of lower highs, capped at the 1.3992 lower high. Early in the Asia session the pair broke the 1.3980 range floor, swept Thursday's NY low at 1.3965 and printed an Asia low of 1.3959, as USD eased on fading December-hike odds. The bounce from there has stalled at a 1.3970 bounce high, with RSI(14) near 31.
Support: 1.3965, 1.3959
Resistance: 1.3970, 1.3980, 1.3992
What it said to watch
A close back above the 1.3980 range floor (38.2% fib) would neutralise the Asian range break
Failure to hold the 1.3959 Asia low extends the lower-low sequence beyond the NY low sweep
Holding below the 1.3970 bounce high keeps price pinned under the lower-high trendline
US ECI and Canada Aug GDP, both at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows; Asian range floor broken, prior NY low swept.
USD/CAD has printed lower highs since the post-GDP day high at 1.4014. The Asia session broke the 1.3980 Asian low, then swept the 1.3965 NY low to a session low of 1.3959, with CAD still drawing support from the hawkish BoC. Price is back at 1.3968 with RSI(14) near 39, and the 1.3975–1.3980 zone marks the 50–61.8% retrace of the Asia decline plus the old Asian low.
Support: 1.39649, 1.39587, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.39796, 1.39918, 1.40141
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.3980 asian low and the lower highs trendline breaks the intraday sequence
Failure to hold the 1.3959 session low exposes the 1.3950 wedge base
A move through the 1.3992 swing high negates the intraday downtrend read
Canada GDP and US ECI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
01:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since the 1.4014 NY spike · RSI 31 · price 1.39656
Asia break below the NY low, lower-high chain intact.
Asia session extended the NY sell-off from the 1.4014 post-GDP spike. Price broke yesterday's 1.3965 NY low and printed a session low at 1.3959 before wicking back, with CAD's post-BoC firmness keeping the pair under 1.40. RSI(14) near 31 is stretched but not oversold, and price sits below both EMAs; the sell-off fib from the 1.3992 lower high puts the 38.2% retrace near the 1.3972 london low.
Support: 1.39587, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3972, 1.39874
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.3959 session low exposes the 1.3950 round number and the 1.3940–1.3950 wedge base
Reclaim of the 1.3972 london low would mark the 1.3965 break as a false break
M15 close above the 1.3987 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and neutralises the sell-off structure
Canada August GDP and US ECI, both at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.4014, Asian slide broke the prior NY low.
The post-GDP spike to 1.4014 has fully unwound. An Asian slide from the 1.3987 swing high took out yesterday's 1.3965 ny low to a 1.3963 session low, with RSI(14) near 21 stretched. Price sits below Scotiabank's sub-1.3980 fair value, with CAD still supported by the hawkish BoC.
Support: 1.3963, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3965, 1.3975, 1.3987
What it said to watch
A close back above the 1.3965 ny low would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.3963 session low exposes the 1.3950 wedge base
A bounce that stalls at the 50% retrace near 1.3975 keeps the lower-high chain intact; a close above the 1.3987 swing high voids it
Canada GDP and US ECI, both at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs 1.4014/1.3992/1.3987, testing 1.3965 NY low.
USDCAD faded the US GDP/PCE data high at 1.4014 and has printed lower highs since. The late-NY rebound stalled near the 50–61.8% retracement of that data fade. Early Asia slipped from the 1.3987 lower high back into a retest of the 1.3965 NY low, with RSI(14) near 38 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 1.3965, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3987, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3965 NY low confirms a lower low and exposes the 1.3950 wedge base
Reclaiming the 1.3987 lower high and the falling trendline breaks the lower-highs sequence and puts the 1.4000 round number back in play
Canada GDP and US ECI, both 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs since the 1.4014 NY spike; lows at 1.3965 still intact.
The GDP-beat spike to 1.4014 in the first hour of NY fully reversed, and the bounce high at 1.3992 stalled inside the 50–61.8% retrace of the NY drop. Early Asia is printing a fresh session low at 1.3975 under a line of lower highs. Price sits below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 42, and the 1.3968 swing low and 1.3965 NY low are the next floors.
Support: 1.39747, 1.39679, 1.39649
Resistance: 1.39874, 1.39918, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3965 NY low turns the lower highs into a lower-low sequence
Recovery above the 1.3987 lower high breaks the trendline; the 1.3992 bounce high and 1.4000 round number sit above
Canada GDP and US ECI, both 12:30 UTC Friday, could materially shift this read
00:31 UTC
Short-term downtrend, lower highs since NY peak · RSI 35 · price 1.39767
Failed break above 1.40, lower highs at 1.3992 and 1.3987, testing Asian low.
The NY push above 1.40 after the US GDP beat peaked at the 1.4014 NY high, then reversed to a 1.3965 swing low. The rebound stalled twice at the 1.3992 lower high, near the 61.8% level of the NY sell-off fib. Early Asia is sliding from a 1.3987 minor high into the 1.3970 Asian low, with RSI(14) near 35 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 1.3970, 1.39649
Resistance: 1.39874, 1.39918, 1.40141
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3965 swing low extends the lower-low sequence
Holding the 1.3970 Asian low keeps the 1.3965–1.3992 range intact
Reclaim of the 1.3992 lower high breaks the descending lower-highs line
Canada GDP and US ECI at 12:30 UTC, then Fed's Daly and Musalem, could materially shift this read
00:16 UTC
Range after NY reversal, momentum soft · RSI 41 · price 1.39814
Tight Asia range 1.3980–1.3992 with lower highs below the range top.
NY faded the post-GDP spike to the 1.4014 day high and fell to a 1.3965 NY low. Asia is now boxed between the 1.3980 Asian low and the 1.3992 range top, with the bounce stalling near the 50% retrace of that drop and RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 1.3980, 1.3965
Resistance: 1.3992, 1.4014
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3980 Asian low exposes the 1.3965 NY low
Close above the 1.3992 range top breaks the lower-highs line and brings 1.4000, then the 1.4014 day high, into play
US ECI and Canada Aug GDP, both at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
00:02 UTC
Range after failed data spike · RSI 46 · price 1.39849
Tight 1.3980–1.3992 box below the 1.4000 round number.
The US GDP beat lifted the pair through 1.4000 to a 1.4014 data high early in NY hours, but the move was fully reversed into a 1.3965 NY low, leaving a false break of the round number. Since then price has compressed into a 1.3980–1.3992 box into the Asia session. The box sits between the 38.2% and 61.8% retracement of the NY selloff fib, with price on EMA20/50, RSI(14) neutral at 46 and ATR(14) near 3.5 pips.
Support: 1.3980, 1.3965
Resistance: 1.3992, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3992 box top opens a retest of the 1.4000 round number
Failure to hold the 1.3980 box floor exposes the 1.3965 NY low
Canada GDP and US ECI, both Fri 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read