USD/CAD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Thursday, 29 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/CAD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:47 UTC
Flat, range-bound after NY reversal · RSI 55 · price 1.39844
Higher lows off the NY low, capped by a 1.3992 range top.
NY's spike to the 1.4014 ny high came after the US GDP beat. It was rejected back through the round number and sold off to the 1.3965 ny low. Early Asia is now compressing between the 1.3980 session low and the 1.3992 range top, near the 38.2% level of the NY drop fib. Price is sitting on flat EMA20/EMA50 with RSI(14) mid-50s, and there is no setup in play.
Support: 1.3980, 1.3965
Resistance: 1.3992, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3992 range top reopens the 1.4000 round number
Failure to hold the 1.3980 session low exposes the 1.3965 ny low
US ECI and Canada Aug GDP, both at 12:30 UTC Friday, could materially shift this read
23:31 UTC
Sideways after NY reversal from 1.40 · RSI 46 · price 1.39849
Tight early-Asia range 1.3980–1.3992 below the NY spike high.
The US GDP beat drove a spike to the 1.4014 ny high, but the round number failed to hold and NY sold off to a 1.3965 ny low. Early Asia is holding a 1.3980–1.3992 range near the 38.2% fib of that drop, with the asia low at 1.3980 and the range top at 1.3992. RSI(14) is near 46 and price is hugging flat EMAs.
Support: 1.3980, 1.3965
Resistance: 1.3992, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3992 range top (near the 50% fib) opens the 1.4000 round number and 1.4014 ny high
Loss of the 1.3980 asia low exposes the 1.3965 ny low
Canada Aug GDP and US ECI, both at 12:30 UTC Fri, could materially shift this read
23:02 UTC
Two-way chop, mild downside drift in early Asia · RSI 46 · price 1.39807
Range 1.3965–1.4014 after a faded US data spike; recovery capped at 1.3992.
The spike to the 1.4014 data high on the US GDP beat fully reversed through NY into a 1.3965 ny low. The late-NY rebound was rejected at the 1.3992 late ny high, and early Asia is sitting on a 1.3980 session low near the 50% fib of that bounce.
Support: 1.3980, 1.39649
Resistance: 1.39918, 1.40141
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3980 session low exposes the 1.3965 ny low and the 61.8% fib near 1.3975
Reclaim of the 1.3992 late ny high reopens the 1.4000 round number and the 1.4014 data high
Canada GDP and US ECI, both at 12:30 UTC Fri, could materially shift this read
22:46 UTC
Sideways after a failed NY spike · RSI 46 · price 1.39809
Tight 1.3979–1.3992 band inside the 1.3965–1.4014 day range.
The NY spike on the US GDP beat was rejected at the 1.4014 ny high and unwound to a 1.3965 day low, below the Asian range. The rebound stalled at the 1.3992 swing high, roughly the 50% retrace of the NY sell-off. After the rollover, price dropped back onto the 1.3979 swing low with RSI(14) neutral near 46 and price under both EMAs.
Support: 1.39785, 1.39649
Resistance: 1.39918, 1.4000, 1.40141
What it said to watch
A break below the 1.3979 swing low exposes the 1.3965 day low
An M15 close above the 1.3992 swing high reopens the 1.4000 round number and the 1.4014 ny high
Canada Aug GDP and US ECI at 12:30 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
22:32 UTC
Sideways, late rebound fading · RSI 44 · price 1.39809
Rebound from 1.3965 capped at 1.3992; inside 1.3965–1.4014 day range.
The GDP-driven spike to the 1.4014 NY high reversed through the 1.3970 asian low to a 1.3965 day low. The late-NY rebound stalled at the 1.3992 range cap, between the 50% and 61.8% of the NY drop fib. A 10-pip drop at 22:00 UTC, after NY close, puts price back at 1.3981, just above the 1.3978 higher low and below both EMAs.
Support: 1.3978, 1.3970, 1.3965
Resistance: 1.3992, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3978 higher low exposes the 1.3970 asian low and 1.3965 day low
M15 close above the 1.3992 range cap reopens the 1.4000 round number and 1.4014 ny high
Canada Aug GDP and US ECI, both at 12:30 UTC Fri, could materially shift this read
22:16 UTC
Choppy, recovering off day low; capped below 1.3992 · RSI 44 · price 1.39805
24h range 1.3965–1.4014; higher lows since 17:45 UTC low now being tested.
The US GDP beat drove a NY spike through the 1.4001 london high to a 1.4014 ny high, but the move fully reversed and swept the 1.3970 asian low to a 1.3965 day low. The recovery stalled at a 1.3992 recovery cap, between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of the NY reversal. A post-rollover drop in thin early-Asia trade is now testing the 1.3979 swing low.
Support: 1.3979, 1.3970, 1.3965
Resistance: 1.3992, 1.4001, 1.4014
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3979 swing low ends the higher-low sequence and exposes the 1.3970 asian low and 1.3965 day low
Reclaim of the 1.3992 recovery cap (61.8% of the NY reversal) reopens the 1.4001 london high
Canada Aug GDP and US Q3 ECI, both at 12:30 UTC Fri, could materially shift this read
22:02 UTC
Two-way, lower highs since NY spike · RSI 50 · price 1.39832
1.3965–1.4014 day range; late-NY rebound capped at 1.3992.
The Q3 GDP beat drove a spike to the 1.4014 ny high. It was rejected, and late NY selling ran to the 1.3965 ny low. The rebound stalled at the 1.3992 late-ny cap, between the 50% and 61.8% fib, and the first Asia session bar is slipping back to 1.3983, near the 38.2% fib and just under the EMAs.
Support: 1.3979, 1.3965
Resistance: 1.3992, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.3979 pivot low exposes the 1.3965 ny low
A close above the 1.3992 late-ny cap and the falling trendline reopens the 1.4000 round number
Canada Aug GDP and US ECI (both Fri 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
21:46 UTC
Recovering from NY low, stalling at 1.3990 · RSI 62 · price 1.39895
Higher-low chain off 1.3965 day low, capped near 1.3992.
The post-GDP spike to the 1.4014 NY high was rejected and unwound to a 1.3965 day low. A higher-low chain since then has lifted price back to 1.3990, the 50% retracement of that post-data drop, where a late cap at 1.3992 is holding into the thin rollover.
Support: 1.3983, 1.3965
Resistance: 1.3992, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3992 late cap and the 1.4000 round number reopens the 1.4014 NY high
Loss of rising support and the 1.3983 higher low exposes the 1.3965 day low
Canada GDP and US ECI at 12:30 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
Higher lows off the 1.3965 day low, capped near the 1.3992 evening high inside the 1.3965–1.4014 day range.
The NY spike to the 1.4014 ny high after the Q3 GDP beat was rejected. It unwound to a 1.3965 day low under the Asian range, a false break at both ends of the session range, with the BoC hawkish lean capping USD. The post-NY rebound printed higher lows at 1.3979 and 1.3983 and stalled at the 1.3992 evening high, near the 50% retrace of the selloff (ny selloff fib). Price sits at 1.3987 through thin rollover trade, just above both EMAs.
Support: 1.3983, 1.3979, 1.3965
Resistance: 1.3992, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3992 evening high and the 1.4000 round number reopens the 1.4014 ny high
Break of the 1.3983 higher low and the rebound trendline exposes the 1.3979 swing low, then the 1.3965 day low
Canada Aug GDP and US ECI at 12:30 UTC Fri (~15h) could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 1.3965 day low, capped below 1.3992; mid post-data range.
The US GDP beat and in-line PCE drove a NY-open spike to the 1.4014 data high. That was rejected, and the sell-off swept the Asian and London lows into a 1.3965 day low late in NY. Since then a recovery line of higher lows has stalled at the 1.3992 late ny high near the 50–61.8% post-data drop fib, with price flat into rollover and ATR near 6 pips.
Support: 1.3983, 1.3965
Resistance: 1.3992, 1.4001, 1.4014
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.3992 late ny high puts the 1.4001 london high and 1.4014 data high back in play
Break of the 1.3983 higher low and the recovery line reopens the 1.3965 day low
Canada Aug GDP and US ECI, both Fri 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
21:04 UTC
Recovering from NY low, range-bound · RSI 59 · price 1.39886
Higher lows since 1.3965, capped below 1.3992.
The US GDP beat drove a spike to the 1.4014 ny high, briefly above the 1.4001 london high, but it failed and unwound to a 1.3965 session low. Late NY has printed higher lows along a rising trendline, with price stalling near the 50% retrace of the NY drop at 1.3989, inside a 1.3965–1.4014 range going into Asia.
Support: 1.39827, 1.39785, 1.39649
Resistance: 1.39918, 1.40015, 1.40141
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3992 bounce high clears the 61.8% retrace at 1.3995 and brings the 1.4001 london high back into view
Break of the 1.3983 double low and the 1.3979 higher low snaps the rising trendline and reopens the 1.3965 session low
Canada Aug GDP and US ECI at 12:30 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
20:47 UTC
Intraday range, rebounding off day low · RSI 61 · price 1.39883
Higher lows off 1.3965, capped under 1.3992.
The US GDP beat at 12:30 UTC spiked the pair to a 1.4014 NY high, but the push above the 1.4000 round number was rejected and NY faded it through the Asian low to a 1.3965 day low. That break below the Asian low failed. Late NY has printed higher lows at 1.3979 and 1.3983, the prior HL and the latest higher low, and price is sitting at the 50% retracement of the NY high-low move, with the 1.3992 rebound high capping into the close.
Support: 1.39827, 1.39785, 1.39649
Resistance: 1.39918, 1.4000, 1.40141
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.3983 higher low breaks the rebound trendline and exposes the 1.3979 prior HL, then the 1.3965 day low.
Clearance of the 1.3992 rebound high puts the 1.4000 round number and the 1.4014 NY high back in play.
Price is moving into the thin NY-close and Asia session hours, where the rebound often stalls inside the session range.
Canada Aug GDP and US Q3 ECI, both at 12:30 UTC Fri, could materially shift this read.
The US GDP beat lifted the pair to a 1.4014 NY high, but it was rejected above the 1.4000 round number and fell to a 1.3965 NY low, a false break of the 1.3970 Asian low. The late-NY rebound is building higher lows along a recovery line but stalled at the 1.3992 rebound high, between the 50% and 61.8% retracement, and price is now sitting on the line.
Support: 1.3983, 1.3970, 1.3965
Resistance: 1.3992, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.3983 higher low breaks the recovery line and reopens the 1.3970 Asian low
A break of the 1.3965 NY low confirms a lower low beneath the Asian range
A close above the 1.3992 rebound high and the 61.8% fib puts the 1.4000 round number back in play, with the 1.4014 NY high above
Canada GDP and US ECI, both Fri 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain off 1.3965 inside 1.3965–1.4014 day range.
The early-NY spike on the Q3 GDP beat reached a data high at 1.4014 and was rejected below the 1.4000 round number. Price then slid to a 1.3965 session low, under the 1.3970 Asian low. Late NY bounced to a 1.3992 late high near the 50–61.8% fib of that drop, with a higher low at 1.3979, and the pair now sits at the 38.2% level (1.3984), roughly on EMA50.
Support: 1.3979, 1.3965
Resistance: 1.3992, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3979 higher low breaks the recovery chain and exposes the 1.3965 session low
M15 close above the 1.3992 late high reopens the 1.4000 round number and the 1.4014 data high
Canada Aug GDP and US ECI both at 12:30 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
20:02 UTC
Rebounding inside day range · RSI 61 · price 1.39915
Higher low at 1.3979 after NY fade from 1.4014.
The US GDP beat lifted USDCAD to a post-data hi of 1.4014 at 13:30 UTC, then rejection there led to a full NY fade to the session low at 1.3965. The late-NY rebound off a higher low at 1.3979 has retraced about 54% of that drop and is now pressing the London high and 1.4000 psych zone, with RSI(14) near 61 and the day still a 1.3965–1.4014 range.
Support: 1.39785, 1.39649
Resistance: 1.40015, 1.40141
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the London high at 1.4002 reopens the post-data hi at 1.4014.
Loss of the 1.3979 higher low breaks the late-NY rebound line and exposes the session low at 1.3965.
Thin post-NY liquidity into the Asia session may keep price pinned near 1.4000.
Canada GDP and US ECI (Fri 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read.
Lower highs from the 1.4014 NY high; day low 1.3965 swept below the Asian low, bounce capped at 1.3987.
The US data spike after the GDP beat ran to a 1.4014 NY high and was fully rejected. The sell-off swept the 1.3970 Asian low into a 1.3965 day low, and the late-NY bounce stalled at 1.3987, near the 50% retracement. Price is drifting at 1.3981 just above the late low at 1.3978, in line with the post-BoC read of USD/CAD pinned below 1.40.
Support: 1.39785, 1.39696, 1.39649
Resistance: 1.3987, 1.4000, 1.40141
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3987 bounce high breaks the lower-high trendline from the NY high
Failure to hold the 1.3978 late low reopens the 1.3970 Asian low and the 1.3965 day low
Acceptance back above the 1.4000 round number undoes the NY rejection
Canada GDP and US ECI, both at 12:30 UTC Fri, could materially shift this read
19:32 UTC
Intraday down from NY high, late bounce stalling · RSI 49 · price 1.39809
NY spike faded into a sweep below the Asian low; small higher-low chain since 1.3965.
The US GDP beat at 12:30 UTC drove a spike to the 1.4014 NY high. That move fully faded into a sweep of the Asian low to 1.3965. The late-NY bounce off the higher low stalled at the 1.3987 bounce high, between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the drop, with price flat at EMA20 near Scotiabank's ~1.3980 fair value.
Support: 1.3973, 1.3965
Resistance: 1.3987, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.3987 bounce high opens the 50% fib near 1.3990 and the 1.4000 round number.
Loss of the 1.3973 higher low puts the 1.3965 NY low back in play; a break there extends the lower-low sequence.
Canada GDP and US ECI, both Fri 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read.
Lower highs from the data high; micro higher lows off the 1.3965 day low.
The US GDP/claims beat lifted the pair to a 1.4014 data high early in NY. That push above 1.40 failed. NY then sold down to a 1.3965 day low, sweeping the Asian low near 1.3970. The late-NY rebound has printed higher lows from 1.3973 and is pressing the 1.3987 rebound high, which sits between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the 1.4014–1.3965 drop.
Support: 1.3973, 1.3965
Resistance: 1.3987, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3987 rebound high and the 50% fib (~1.3990) puts the 1.4000 round number back in play
Failure to hold the 1.3973 higher low reopens the 1.3965 day low
Canada Aug GDP and US Q3 ECI, both Fri 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Asia session hand-off thins liquidity; holding the rising trendline keeps the bounce structure intact
False break below Asian low, reclaiming the NY sell-off.
The 12:30 UTC GDP and claims beats lifted the pair to the NY high at 1.4014, but the spike fully unwound and dipped to a session low of 1.3965, briefly below the Asian low at 1.3970. Late NY has reclaimed that level and price is testing the 38.2% retrace of the NY sell-off near 1.3984. The 24h range of 1.3965–1.4014 is still intact.
Support: 1.3970, 1.3965
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.3970 asian low turns the false break into a lower-low
Acceptance above the 50% fib at 1.3990 puts the 1.4000 round number back in play
Canada GDP and US ECI, both Fri 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.4014 data high; false break below Asian low.
The 12:30 UTC US data spike after the GDP beat stalled at the 1.4014 data high and was sold through NY hours. Price dipped to a 1.3965 session low, briefly under the 1.3970 Asian low, before buyers stepped back in. Late NY, it is pressing the 38.2% fib and the 1.3985 swing high, with RSI(14) neutral at 46.
Support: 1.3970, 1.3965
Resistance: 1.3985, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3985 swing high and the 50% fib near 1.3990 reopens the 1.4000 round number
Slip back under the 1.3970 Asian low and loss of the 1.3965 session low confirms a lower-low
Canada GDP and US ECI, both Fri 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
NY spiked to the 1.4014 ny high on the Q3 GDP beat, then rejected and slid back through the 1.4000 round number. It swept the 1.3970 asian low and printed a session low of 1.3965 before bouncing. Late NY, price is pinned at the ema20 near 1.3981, below the 38.2% of the ny high-low fib, with RSI(14) neutral at 45.
Support: 1.3970, 1.3965
Resistance: 1.3981, 1.3986, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3986 lower high reopens the 1.4000 round number
Loss of the 1.3965 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.3940-1.3950 wedge base
Holding back above the 1.3970 asian low keeps the sweep read intact
Canada GDP and US ECI at 12:30 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
18:17 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since NY open · RSI 36 · price 1.39737
Lower-high chain from 1.4014, Asian low swept, price pinned just above it.
The Q3 GDP beat lifted USDCAD to a 1.4014 US data high early in NY, but the spike was rejected. A steady NY sell-off of lower highs then swept the 1.3970 Asian low to a 1.3965 session low. The dip was bought back to a 1.3981 minor high and faded again, leaving price late in NY hugging the Asian low with RSI(14) near 36.
Support: 1.3970, 1.3965
Resistance: 1.3981, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
A close back above the 1.3981 minor high, just over the 23.6% fib of the NY sell-off, breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.3965 session low extends the lower-low chain below the Asian low
A recovery through the 1.4000 round number back toward the 1.4014 US data high would unwind the NY sell-off
Canada Aug GDP and US ECI, both 12:30 UTC Fri, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.4014 post-data high; 1.3965 dip below the Asian low rejected.
The NY-open spike to the 1.4014 post-data high after the US GDP beat fully faded, carving lower highs into a 1.3965 session low beneath the 1.3970 Asian low. The latest bar rejected that dip and closed back near 1.3976, just under Scotiabank's ~1.3980 fair value. RSI(14) sits near 38, not oversold.
Support: 1.39696, 1.39649, 1.3945
Resistance: 1.39844, 1.4000, 1.40141
What it said to watch
A close back below the 1.3965 session low resumes the lower-low chain toward the 1.3945 wedge base
Recovery through the 1.3984 lower high (38.2% of the post-data fade) breaks the NY-session sequence; 1.4000 round number sits above
Holding back above the 1.3970 Asian low keeps the false-break read intact
Canada Aug GDP and US ECI at 12:30 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
17:47 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since the US data spike · RSI 28 · price 1.39665
Lower-high chain from 1.4014; Asian low broken, fresh 24h low.
The first-hour-of-NY spike to the US data high at 1.4014, after the GDP beat, was fully rejected. A chain of NY lower highs has since pushed price through the Asian low at 1.3970 to a fresh day low at 1.3966 after London close, with CAD holding its post-BoC firmness. RSI(14) near 28 is stretched but not extreme; ATR around 7 pips.
Support: 1.3966, 1.3920
Resistance: 1.3970, 1.3985, 1.4014
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the asian low at 1.3970 would turn the break into a false break
A recapture of the 1.3985 lower high breaks the NY lower-high chain
Sustained trade below the day low at 1.3966 leaves the cited supp at 1.3920 as the next reference
Canada Aug GDP and US ECI at 12:30 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
Lower highs since the post-data high; Asian low under test.
The spike to the 1.4014 post-data high after the US GDP beat was rejected and fully unwound through NY hours, leaving a chain of lower highs under the descending line, the latest at 1.3984. Price is now pressing the 1.3968 session low, a marginal break of the Asian low near 1.3970, with RSI(14) near 31 and after-London-close liquidity thin. The London high at 1.4002 marks the morning ceiling.
Support: 1.3968, 1.3920
Resistance: 1.3984, 1.4002, 1.4014
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3984 lower high breaks the descending-line sequence
Acceptance below the 1.3968 session low opens the 1.3920 next support named in desk commentary
Close back above 1.4002 london high reopens the post-data hi at 1.4014
Canada Aug GDP and US ECI, both Fri 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
17:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since NY open · RSI 37 · price 1.39719
Post-data spike to 1.4014 fully reversed; LH/LL chain into session low.
The US GDP beat lifted USDCAD through 1.4000 psych to a 1.4014 NY high, but that move was a false break. Price has since retraced the whole NY drop through lower highs, the latest a 1.3984 swing high. Price has printed a fresh session low at 1.3968, just under the 1.3970 Asian low, with RSI(14) near 37 and not yet stretched.
Support: 1.3968, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3984, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
Closes below the 1.3968 session low confirm the break of the Asian low and open the 1.3950 round number
A recovery above the 1.3984 swing high breaks the lower-highs chain; the NY drop 50% retrace sits near 1.3991
Reclaiming 1.4000 psych and the 1.4014 NY high would negate the reversal read
Canada Aug GDP and US ECI at 12:30 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
17:03 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since data spike · RSI 35 · price 1.39704
Post-data spike rejected; descending highs pressing the Asian low.
The US GDP beat lifted the pair to a 1.4014 data high in the first hour of NY. That move was fully rejected, and a chain of lower highs, the latest at 1.3984, has carried price back to retest the 1.3970 Asian low after London close. RSI(14) sits near 35, soft but not oversold, with price below both EMAs.
Support: 1.3970, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3984, 1.4002, 1.4014
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3970 Asian low breaks the day's range floor and exposes the 1.3950 round number
Close above the 1.3984 lower high breaks the post-data descending sequence; the 1.4002 london high caps above that
Recovery through the 1.4014 data high would negate the rejection read
Canada Aug GDP and US ECI, both Fri 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
16:47 UTC
Intraday range, sellers pressing lower after a failed spike · RSI 39 · price 1.39775
Lower high after a failed break above 1.4000; price at the range floor.
The spike to the 1.4014 NY high on the US GDP beat was fully unwound mid-NY session. Price is back at 1.3975, pinned near the 1.3972 session low and the 1.3970 asian low beneath a 1.3984 lower high. The 1.3970–1.4015 range holds for now, with RSI(14) at 39 and ATR(14) near 9 pips.
Support: 1.3972, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.3984, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3970 asian low breaks the range floor and confirms a lower-low
Recovery above the 1.3984 lower high and the falling trendline reopens the 1.4000 round number and 1.4014 ny high
Fri 12:30 UTC Canada Aug GDP and US ECI land together and could materially shift this read
The US GDP beat lifted USDCAD from the 1.3972 London low to a 1.4014 data high in the first hour of NY. The push above the 1.4000 round number failed and the whole move was faded to a 1.3975 ny low. Price sits mid-range below both EMAs, with the asian low at 1.3970 and the ny low still holding underneath and a lower-high line capping rallies near 1.3990.
Support: 1.39749, 1.39696
Resistance: 1.3990, 1.4000, 1.40141
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.3990 (38.2% of the fade and the lower-high zone) breaks the lower-high sequence and reopens the 1.4000 round number
Failure to hold the 1.3975 ny low and the 1.3970 asian low breaks the range floor that has held three times
Canada Aug GDP and US ECI, both Fri 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
The 12:30 UTC US GDP beat lifted the pair through the London high at 1.4002 to a data high of 1.4014. That push was a false break: NY session gave the whole move back, about 80% of the fib retracement, to a fresh NY low at 1.3975. Price now sits just above the 1.3970 Asian low, which has held through Asia, London and NY, with RSI(14) near 37 and ATR around 10 pips.
Support: 1.39749, 1.39696
Resistance: 1.40015, 1.40141
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3970 asian low breaks the 24h range floor and puts the 1.3940–1.3950 area in view
Recovery back above the 1.4002 london high negates the false-break read
Canada Aug GDP and US ECI, both Fri 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower-high sequence from 1.4014 pressing the 1.3970-72 floor.
The US GDP beat at 12:30 UTC lifted the pair from 1.3976 to a 1.4014 data high. The break above the 1.4000 round number failed, and the move has fully unwound into the London close through a chain of lower highs, the latest at 1.3986. Price is now back on the 1.3970-72 floor formed by the Asian low and the London low, inside the 1.3970–1.4014 day range.
Support: 1.3972, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.3986, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3970 asian low breaks the day range and extends the lower-high chain into a lower-low
Reclaim of the 1.3986 lower high and the falling trendline invalidates the fade read; 1.4000 round number caps above
Repeated holds at the 1.3972 london low keep the range intact into the quieter post-London NY hours
Canada Aug GDP and US ECI, both Fri 12:30 UTC, are the next scheduled catalysts for a range break
Lower highs from 1.4014 NY high, back inside Asian range.
The US GDP beat and in-line PCE at the NY open lifted USDCAD from the 1.3972 London low to a 1.4014 NY high. The break above the 1.40 round number did not hold, and price has since retraced over 70% of the post-data leg, back below the 61.8% fib. The pair now sits on the 1.3980 NY low, inside the Asian range and below EMA20/EMA50, with RSI(14) neutral near 46.
Support: 1.3980, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.3988, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.3980 NY low exposes the 1.3970 Asian low, which London already tested
A reclaim of the 1.3988 61.8% fib and the 1.40 round number would neutralise the fade read
A return above the 1.4014 NY high reopens the post-data upside
Canada Aug GDP and US ECI, both Fri 12:30 UTC, could reset the range
15:32 UTC
Range, NY data spike fully reversed · RSI 47 · price 1.39845
False break above 1.4000, lower highs since NY high.
The US GDP beat lifted USD/CAD from the 1.3972 London low to a 1.4014 NY high, but the push above the 1.4000 round number failed and has retraced past the fib 61.8 at 1.3988. Price is sitting on the 1.3982 NY low below both EMAs with RSI(14) neutral near 47, still inside the 1.3970–1.4015 range that has held since the Asian low.
Support: 1.39822, 1.39696
Resistance: 1.3988, 1.4000, 1.40141
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3982 ny low exposes the 1.3970 asian low and range base
Recovery above 1.4000 round number and the lower-highs trendline negates the false break read
Close above 1.4014 ny high would break the range top
Canada Aug GDP and US ECI at 12:30 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
15:17 UTC
Intraday range, fading from NY high · RSI 46 · price 1.39846
False break above 1.40, lower highs since NY peak.
The NY spike after the US GDP beat cleared the 1.4002 London high to a 1.4014 NY high but was rejected. Price has since retraced past 61.8% of the 1.3972–1.4014 data rally. Lower highs since the peak have put price back on the 1.3984 NY low, inside the post-Fed 1.3970–1.4014 range.
Support: 1.3984, 1.3972, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.4002, 1.4014
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3984 ny low exposes the 1.3972 pre-data low and 1.3970 asian low
Recovery above the 1.4002 london high negates the false break read and reopens the 1.4014 ny high
A break of the ny lower highs trendline would end the post-peak fade
Canada Aug GDP and US ECI, both Fri 12:30 UTC, are the next scheduled risk
15:03 UTC
Two-way, data spike unwound · RSI 47 · price 1.39875
False break above Asian range, back inside 1.3970–1.3998.
The 12:30 UTC US GDP beat lifted USD/CAD through the Asian high and the 1.40 pivot to a 1.4014 data high. The break failed within the hour, and price is back near 1.3988, the 61.8% retrace of the London-low rally, holding above the 1.3984 pullback low. The Asian low at 1.3970 and the London low at 1.3972 form the floor; RSI(14) is ~47, with price just under both EMAs midway through the NY session.
Support: 1.3984, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.3998, 1.4014
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3984 pullback low exposes the 1.3970 asian low and London low cluster
Failure to hold 1.3970 breaks the double-floor and confirms a lower-low below the Asian range
Close back above the 1.3998 asian high and 1.40 pivot reopens the 1.4014 data high
Fri 12:30 UTC: Canada Aug GDP and US ECI print together and could materially shift this read
14:47 UTC
Sideways, two-way after data spike · RSI 52 · price 1.3990
NY spike above London high rejected, back inside 1.3970–1.4015 range.
The US GDP beat lifted the pair from the 1.3972 London low through the 1.4002 London high to a 1.4014 NY high. That move was fully rejected within the hour, and price is now back at 1.3990, sitting on the swing low near the 61.8% retracement of the NY rally. RSI(14) is neutral around 52 and price is flat against both EMAs, so this is ranging between the asian low at 1.3970 and the 1.40 handle rather than trending.
Support: 1.3988, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.4002, 1.4014
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3988 swing low (61.8% of the NY rally fib) exposes the 1.3970 asian low
Reclaim of the 1.4002 london high and 1.4014 ny high would negate the false-break read
Canada Aug GDP and US ECI, both Fri 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Asian range 1.3970–1.3998 intact after two failed upside breaks.
The US GDP beat lifted the pair from the 1.3972 low to a 1.4014 data high. That was the second push above the Asian range after the London high at 1.4002 also failed. The move reversed in the first hour of NY, and price now sits at the 50% retrace (1.3993), flat on EMA20, with the 1.3988 pivot (61.8%) holding so far.
Support: 1.3988, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.4002, 1.4014
What it said to watch
A close back above the 1.4002 london high reopens the 1.4014 data high.
Loss of the 1.3988 pivot exposes the 1.3970 asian low, a level held twice today.
ECB/Lagarde today, then US ECI and Canada Aug GDP Fri 12:30 UTC, could break the range.
Break above Asian range, pullback retesting the Asian high.
USD/CAD formed a double btm at 1.3970/1.3972 across the Asia and London lows. The US GDP beat at 12:30 UTC then pushed price out of the 1.3970–1.3998 Asian range to a 1.4014 session high in the first hour of NY. The pullback is now retesting the asian high near 1.3996–1.3998, with RSI(14) cooled to ~60 from the high-60s.
Support: 1.3998, 1.3971
Resistance: 1.4014, 1.4053
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.3998 asian high returns price to the Asian range and turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.3971 double btm confirms a lower-low below the post-FOMC lows
Close above the 1.4014 session high opens the path to the 1.4053 pre-fomc level
Fri 12:30 UTC Canada Aug GDP and US ECI are the next scheduled catalysts for the 1.40 pivot
Double bottom at 1.3970 broken higher, pullback from session high.
A double bottom at 1.3970 (Asian low 1.39696, late-London 1.39719) resolved higher after the US GDP beat. The NY rally cleared the London high and the 1.4000 round number to a 1.4014 session high. Rejection there has price retesting 1.4000, with RSI(14) near 57 and ATR around 8 pips.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.4014, 1.4053
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 1.4000 round number turns the breakout into a false break and exposes the 50–61.8% NY rally fib at 1.3993–1.3986
A close above the 1.4014 session high opens the 1.4053 fomc high, the pre-presser level from yesterday
Failure at the 1.3970 double btm would confirm a lower low and negate the reversal read
The ECB decision today could shift broad USD and move this read; Fri 12:30 UTC US ECI and Canada Aug GDP are the next pair-specific risk
Double bottom off 1.3970–1.3972, London high broken.
Firm US data at 12:30 UTC (GDP beat, lower claims) lifted USDCAD off the 1.3972 london low, a near-match of the 1.3970 asian low, back through the 1.4000 psych and London's 1.4002 high to a 1.4009 session high in the first hour of NY. RSI(14) near 58 and ATR around 7 pips. The session high is the first cap, and the 1.4021 post-fed hi sits just above.
Support: 1.4000, 1.39719, 1.39696
Resistance: 1.40089, 1.40212
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4000 psych turns the breakout into a false break
Fib 50% of the 1.3972–1.4009 leg near 1.3990 is the first pullback gauge
Break of the london low and asian low (1.3972/1.3970) voids the double bottom
Clearing the 1.4021 post-fed hi extends the rebound toward the pre-Fed 1.4050s
Fri 12:30 UTC Canada Aug GDP and US ECI could materially shift this read
1.3970–1.4002 range since Asia, higher low at 1.3976 into range top.
The slide from the pre-Fed high at 1.4053 has been floored at 1.3970, where the Asia and late-London lows form a double low. USD/CAD gained about 16 pips in the 12:45 GMT bar after the 12:30 GMT US PCE/GDP release (actuals not yet in the feed). Price is now pressing the 1.4000–1.4002 round number and London high, with RSI(14) near 60.
Support: 1.39755, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.40015, 1.40526
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4002 London high breaks the range top and opens a path toward the 1.4053 pre-Fed high
Rejection at 1.4000 and a loss of the 1.3976 PCE bar low would return price to mid-range
A break below the 1.3970 double low invalidates the double bottom read
PCE/GDP actuals are not yet confirmed in the feed; the confirmed figures could extend or reverse the post-release move
13:03 UTC
Range, bouncing off day low · RSI 55 · price 1.39985
1.3970–1.4002 day range; price at range top.
The 12:45 UTC bar after the US PCE/GDP release lifted USDCAD about 16 pips off the 1.3976 pce low. Price is now pressing the 1.4000 round number and the 1.4002 london high, having retraced nearly all of the London fade. The day remains a 1.3970–1.4002 range, with the asian low (1.3970) and the 11:45 low (1.3972) forming a double bottom, RSI(14) near 55 and ATR around 6 pips.
Support: 1.39755, 1.39696
Resistance: 1.40015, 1.4021
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.4002 london high completes the double bottom and opens the path to the 1.4021 fomc shelf from Wednesday's Warsh-led drop
Rejection at the round number and a slip back below the 1.3976 pce low returns price toward the 1.3970 asian low and range floor
PCE/GDP actuals are not yet in the feed; confirmation of a hot or soft print could materially shift this read
The ECB press conference this afternoon is a secondary volatility risk during NY hours
12:47 UTC
Mild downtrend from London high, stalling near Asian low · RSI 35 · price 1.39824
Lower highs since 1.4002, lows holding 1.3970–1.3972 in a 1.3970–1.4000 band.
London stalled at the 1.4000 round number (london high 1.40015) and slid to a 1.39719 session low, just above the 1.39696 asian low, with the pullback hi at 1.39855 capping the bounce near the 50% fib. The 12:30 GMT PCE/GDP bar was muted at about 8 pips with actuals not yet in the feed. RSI(14) near 35 and price sits under both EMAs as the NY session approaches.
Support: 1.39719, 1.39696
Resistance: 1.39855, 1.39982, 1.40015
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.39696 asian low breaks the Asian range and exposes the 1.3940 wedge base flagged in the digest
Close above the 1.39855 pullback hi and the London lower-highs trendline reopens 1.39982 asian high and 1.4000
Core PCE/GDP actuals and the ECB press conference this afternoon could materially shift this read
12:32 UTC
Post-Fed downtrend, flattening into range · RSI 44 · price 1.39812
Lower highs inside 1.3970–1.4002 overnight range.
The slide from 1.4050 during Warsh's press conference has compressed into a 1.3970–1.4002 range since Asia. London was rejected at the 1.4002 london high and printed falling highs, then held 1.3972 just above the asian low. Price sits mid-range at 1.3981, below EMA20/50, with RSI(14) at 44 as the US GDP/core PCE release hits the current bar.
Support: 1.3970, 1.3945
Resistance: 1.3985, 1.4002
What it said to watch
US GDP/core PCE at 12:30 UTC lands on the current bar and could materially shift this read. A soft core PCE (≤0.2%) is the scenario the digest ties to the 1.3945 wedge base.
An M15 close below the 1.3970 asian low breaks the overnight range and confirms a lower low.
A close above the falling highs line and the 1.3985 ny high exposes the 1.4002 london high. Acceptance above 1.4000 voids the lower-high sequence.
The 50% retrace of the London leg sits at 1.3987, just above the ny high. Rejection there keeps the fade intact.
12:17 UTC
Range after post-Fed drop, bouncing from session low · RSI 41 · price 1.39842
1.3970–1.4002 day range; London lower highs, demand at 1.3970 twice.
After Warsh's press conference knocked the pair below 1.4000, Asia set a 1.3970 session low and London was rejected at the 1.4002 london high before fading on a lower-highs line back to 1.3972. Demand at that level drove an 11-pip bounce in the final bar into the 38.2–50% retrace of the London fade, ahead of the US GDP/PCE release.
Support: 1.3970, 1.3940
Resistance: 1.3987, 1.4002
What it said to watch
US Q3 GDP and core PCE at 12:30 UTC, inside the next bar, could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.3970 session low opens the path toward the 1.3940 wedge base
Rejection at the 1.3987 50% retrace keeps the lower-highs sequence intact
Close above the 1.4002 london high invalidates the range read
12:02 UTC
Intraday downtrend, oversold into Asian low · RSI 24 · price 1.39738
Lower highs from London high, pressing Asian low.
London rejected the 1.4000 pivot at the 1.4002 London high, and the pair has printed lower highs since. The late-London breakdown through 1.3989 extended the post-Warsh slide into the 1.3970 Asian low, with RSI(14) near 24. US GDP and core PCE land in under 30 minutes with price pinned at the session low.
Support: 1.3970, 1.3945
Resistance: 1.3989, 1.4002
What it said to watch
US Q3 GDP and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; ATR near 5 pips will not hold through the print
M15 close below the 1.3970 Asian low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.3945 wedge base
A reclaim of the 1.3989 breakdown level breaks the lower-high trendline and neutralises the slide
Only a close back above the 1.4002 London high flips the 1.4000 pivot
Lower highs since the post-Fed drop; London rejected 1.4000, price retesting the Asian low.
CAD strength since the BoC hike and Fed hold has left a lower-highs sequence. London was rejected at the 1.4000 london high, then the slide below the 1.3990 london shelf around 10:45 UTC has price retesting the 1.3970 asian low ahead of US GDP/PCE. RSI(14) is near 32, soft but not oversold. ATR is about 5–6 pips.
Support: 1.3970, 1.3945
Resistance: 1.3990, 1.4001
What it said to watch
US Q3 GDP and core PCE at 12:30 UTC (~45 min) could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.3970 asian low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.3945 wedge base
Reclaim of the 1.3990 london shelf and the lower-highs line negates the breakdown
Acceptance back above the 1.4000 london high invalidates the downtrend read
11:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London · RSI 31 · price 1.39739
London range broken lower, price pressing Asian low.
London capped at 1.4000 to set the london high, then printed a lower-high sequence. The late-London slide broke the 1.3990 range floor, which lines up with the 61.8% fib of the London drop, and price now sits a few pips above the 1.3970 Asian low with RSI(14) near 31. CAD firmness after the BoC hike is keeping the pair heavy into the US data.
Support: 1.3970
Resistance: 1.3990, 1.4002
What it said to watch
US Q3 GDP and core PCE at 12:30 UTC (about an hour out) could materially shift this read
An M15 close below the 1.3970 Asian low extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaiming the 1.3990 range floor and the lower-high line would neutralise the breakdown
Acceptance back above the 1.4002 london high invalidates the intraday downtrend read
Lower high at 1.4002 under the post-Fed high, retest of Asia low.
London rejected the 1.4000 handle at the 1.4002 london high, then broke the 1.3990 london floor. USDCAD is back on the 1.3970 asia low that ended the post-Fed slide, which came on CAD strength after the BoC hike and Warsh's non-committal presser. The lower high against the 1.4053 Fed-day peak keeps the falling trendline intact, with RSI(14) near 30.
Support: 1.3970, 1.3945
Resistance: 1.3990, 1.40015
What it said to watch
Break of the 1.3970 asia low confirms a lower low and exposes the 1.3940-1.3950 wedge base
Reclaim of the 1.3990 london floor and a close above the 1.4002 london high negates the lower-high read and the falling trendline
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~75 min) could materially shift this read
11:03 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since London open · RSI 36 · price 1.39857
London rejected 1.4000 and has since made lower highs and lower lows, putting price back inside the Asian range.
London capped the Asian grind higher with a rejection at the 1.4000 round number (london high 1.4002). A run of lower highs has since taken price back through the 1.3990 london low to the 50% retracement of the Asia leg, near 1.3986. CAD remains firm after yesterday's BoC hike and the post-Fed drop, and RSI(14) at 36 is soft but not stretched.
Support: 1.3981, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.3990, 1.4002
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.3990 london low negates the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.3981 asia pivot exposes the 1.3970 asian low
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a hot print puts the london high and 1.4000 round number back in play
10:47 UTC
Recovery off Asian low stalling below 1.4000 · RSI 44 · price 1.39906
Higher lows since Asia capped at 1.4002; mid-London drift in a 1.3989–1.4002 band.
The BoC hike and the Fed press conference sent USD/CAD lower from the 1.4053 fed spike to the 1.3970 Asian low. Asia and early London built higher lows into a false break of 1.4000 that the 1.4002 London high now caps. Mid-London, price has slipped below EMA20 onto the 1.3989 London low, near the 38.2% retrace, with RSI(14) at 44.
Support: 1.3989, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.4002, 1.4053
What it said to watch
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~1h45m) could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.3989 london low opens a retest of the 1.3970 asian low
Reclaim of the 1.4002 london high negates the 1.4000 rejection and puts the 1.4053 fed spike back in view
Post-Fed low at 1.3970, then tight 1.3990–1.4000 band in London.
The Warsh-presser slide from the pre-Fed high at 1.4053 bottomed at the 1.3970 Asian low. London's push above the Asian range stalled at 1.40015, the session high and the 38.2% retrace of that drop. Price has since compressed between the 1.3989 London low and 1.4000, with RSI(14) flat near 49 and ATR around 5.5 pips ahead of US data.
Support: 1.3989, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.40015, 1.4053
What it said to watch
US core PCE / Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~2h) could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.40015 session high breaks the London rejection and opens 1.4053 pre-fed high
Failure to hold the 1.3989 London low exposes the 1.3970 Asian low
The slide from 1.4053 during Warsh's presser bottomed at the 1.3970 Asian low. Rising support of higher lows has since pressed price into 1.4000, where London's push to the 1.4002 session high was rejected. Price is now coiling between the 1.3990 London low and 1.4000 into US PCE/GDP, with RSI(14) neutral near 53 and ATR around 5 pips.
Support: 1.39903, 1.39696
Resistance: 1.40015, 1.40212
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4002 session high breaks the cap and exposes the 1.4021 post-fed hi
Close below the 1.3990 london low breaks rising support and reopens the 1.3970 asian low
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~2h) could materially shift this read
10:02 UTC
Post-Fed downtrend paused, higher lows off Asia · RSI 57 · price 1.39962
Higher lows from the 1.3970 Asian low, capped at 1.4002; tight London range.
The slide from the 1.4053 Fed high during the Warsh presser, with CAD firm after the BoC hike, bottomed at the 1.3970 Asian low and has carved higher lows since. Mid-London, price is compressed between the 1.3990 London low and the 1.4002 London high, where the round number and the 38.2% fib of the drop drew a rejection.
Support: 1.3990, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.4002, 1.4053
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4002 (London high / 38.2% fib) opens the 50% at 1.4011 and the 61.8% at 1.4021
Failure to hold the 1.3990 London low exposes the 1.3970 Asian low
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~2.5h) could materially shift this read; ATR near 6 pips understates the likely event move
Higher lows off 1.3970 Asian low, capped at 1.4000 psych.
CAD firmed after the BoC hike and the Fed hold, taking USDCAD to a 1.3970 Asian low before a higher-low grind. Mid-London, a push through the Asian range high was rejected at the 1.4000 psych level, which lines up with the 38.2% of the FOMC drop. Price is compressing just above the 1.3990 London low with the higher-low trendline intact.
Support: 1.3990, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.40015, 1.4011
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4002 psych high negates the false break and opens the fib 50% at 1.4011
Break of the 1.3990 London low and the higher-low trendline exposes the 1.3970 Asian low
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~3h) could materially shift this read
09:32 UTC
Post-Fed downtrend stalling, higher lows since Asia · RSI 50 · price 1.39949
Higher-low chain from 1.3970 capped at 1.4000 psych.
The post-BoC and Fed slide made an Asian low of 1.3970. Price has since built higher lows along a rising trendline. London poked through 1.4000 to a london high of 1.4002, right at the 38.2% retrace of the post-Fed drop, and was rejected back into a tight 1.3990–1.4000 band, with RSI(14) flat at 50.
Support: 1.3990, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.4002, 1.4021
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4002 london high opens the 1.4021 post-fed lh
Loss of the 1.3990 higher low and trendline puts the 1.3970 asian low back in play
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~3h) could materially shift this read
09:17 UTC
Recovery from Asian low, stalling under 1.4000 · RSI 58 · price 1.39947
Higher-low chain from 1.3970, London open high at 1.4002 capping.
After the Fed-presser drop from 1.4053, the bounce from the 1.3970 Asian low printed a higher-low chain, but the London open push was rejected at 1.4002, the 38.2% fib of that drop. Price is now holding the 1.3990 London low and trendline support, with RSI(14) near 58 and ATR around 5.5 pips.
Support: 1.3990, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.40015, 1.4045
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4002 London high and 38.2% fib reopens the 1.4045 pre-Fed high
Break of the 1.3990 London low and trendline support ends the higher-low chain; 1.3970 Asian low is next
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
09:04 UTC
Recovering within post-Fed downswing · RSI 51 · price 1.39924
Higher lows from asian low, capped at 1.4000.
The post-Fed slide from 1.4053, which came after the BoC hike session, bottomed at the 1.3970 asian low. Higher lows since then lifted price to a london high of 1.4002 at the 38.2% fib, where it was rejected back under 1.4000 in a false break of the Asian range top. Price now sits on the rising-lows trendline, with RSI(14) neutral near 51 and ATR around 5 pips.
Support: 1.3988, 1.39696
Resistance: 1.40015, 1.40111
What it said to watch
M15 close below the rising-lows line and the 1.3988 london low exposes the 1.3970 asian low
Acceptance above the 1.4002 london high and 1.4000 opens the 50% fib near 1.4011
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 GMT (~3.5h) could materially shift this read
08:47 UTC
Intraday recovery off 1.3970, capped at 1.4000 · RSI 56 · price 1.39945
Higher highs and higher lows since the Asian low; London false break above the Asian high.
The post-Fed slide from 1.4050 bottomed at the 1.3970 Asian low, and price has built a higher-high, higher-low chain along a rising trendline since. London pushed through the Asian high to a 1.40015 session high but was rejected at the 1.4000 round number. Price is back near 1.3995, RSI(14) ~56, and the 1.3988 London low is holding.
Support: 1.3988, 1.3982, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.40015, 1.4005
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.40015 session high reopens the 1.4005 fed shelf, the post-Fed consolidation lows
A break of the trendline and the 1.3988 london low ends the higher-low chain and exposes the 61.8% fib at 1.3982
Failure to hold the 1.3970 asian low confirms a lower low toward the 1.3940-1.3950 area
US core PCE/GDP at 12:30 GMT (~4h) could materially shift this read
08:32 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since Asia · RSI 65 · price 1.40001
HL chain off 1.3970 Asia low; London above Asian high, capped at 1.4000.
After the Warsh-presser drop from the 1.4053 fed spike to a 1.3970 asia low, USDCAD has built a higher-low chain through Asia. London broke the 1.3998 asian high and is pressing the 1.4000 round figure, where the session high at 1.40015 sits at the 38.2% fed-spike fib, RSI(14) 65.
Support: 1.3998, 1.3988, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.40015, 1.4021, 1.4053
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.40015 session high opens the 1.4021 post-fed hi
Slip back below the 1.3998 asian high and the 1.3988 london low breaks the higher-low line
Loss of the 1.3970 asia low resumes the post-Fed downleg
US Q3 GDP and core PCE at 12:30 GMT (~4h) could materially shift this read
08:17 UTC
Intraday recovery from Asian low, pressing 1.4000 · RSI 66 · price 1.39987
Higher-low chain off 1.3970; Asian range high 1.3998 marginally exceeded in early London.
After the post-Warsh drop from 1.4053, price based at the 1.3970 Asian low and has carved higher lows into early London. It is now testing the 1.4000 round number, which sits on the 38.2% fib of that drop, with the 1.3998 Asian high just below. RSI(14) is near 66 and not stretched, and ATR(14) is about 5 pips.
Support: 1.3998, 1.3988, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.4001, 1.4021
What it said to watch
A sustained M15 close above the 1.4000 round number opens the 61.8% fib near 1.4021, the post-Fed bounce high
Failure back below the 1.3998 Asian high puts the 1.3988 London low and the higher-low trendline in focus
A break of the 1.3988 London low ends the higher-low sequence and shifts attention to the 1.3970 Asian low
US Q3 GDP and core PCE at 12:30 GMT (~4h) could materially shift this read
08:03 UTC
Recovering from post-Fed low, capped under 1.4000 · RSI 59 · price 1.39917
Higher lows inside Asian range, flat top at 1.3996-1.3998.
The post-Warsh USD fade took the pair from 1.4053 to the 1.3970 Asian low. Since then, rising lows have built under a flat cap at the 1.3998 Asian high and the 1.4000 psych level. Early London rejected 1.3996 and dipped to a 1.3988 swing low, leaving price mid-to-upper Asian range with ATR near 4 pips.
Support: 1.3988, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.3998, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3998 asian high and 1.4000 psych breaks the Asian range to the upside
Loss of the 1.3988 swing low and the rising lows line exposes the 1.3970 asian low
US Q3 GDP and core PCE at 12:30 GMT (~4.5h) could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain from 1.3970 Asian low, pressing Asian high.
USDCAD lost 1.4000 during Warsh's press conference and bottomed at the 1.3970 Asian low. A higher-low trendline has since lifted price to the 1.3998 Asian high in early London, just under 1.4000 and the 38.2% fib of the post-Fed drop, with RSI(14) near 62, ATR about 4 pips and price sitting on EMA50.
Support: 1.39884, 1.39696
Resistance: 1.39982, 1.40111
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3998 asian high and 1.4000 opens the fib 50% of the post-Fed drop at 1.4011
Loss of the 1.3988 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the 1.3970 asian low
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~5h) could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain from 1.3970 Asian low, capped below 1.4000.
USD/CAD broke from 1.4050 to below 1.4000 during the Warsh presser, set a 1.3970 Asian low, then built an Asian recovery of higher lows along trendline support. Into the London open, price is pressing the 1.3998 Asian high just under the 1.4000 round number, with RSI(14) near 64.
Support: 1.39884, 1.39807, 1.39696
Resistance: 1.39982, 1.4000, 1.4011
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4000 round number clears the Asian high and exposes the 1.4011 post-fed hi
Break of the 1.3988 higher low and trendline support ends the recovery sequence, with the 1.3981 swing low next
Loss of the 1.3970 Asian low puts price back at session lows
US core PCE, Q3 GDP and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (~5h) could materially shift this read
Asian range 1.3970–1.3998, grinding up off the low into the range top.
Warsh's presser knocked USD/CAD through 1.4000 in late NY hours. Asia printed a 1.3970 low, then built a chain of higher lows along rising support. Price is now pressing the Asian high at 1.3998 just ahead of London open, with the 1.4000 round number directly overhead.
Support: 1.39884, 1.39696
Resistance: 1.39982, 1.4000, 1.40212
What it said to watch
M15 close above the Asian high and 1.4000 round number reopens the post-Fed high at 1.4021
Loss of rising support and the 1.3988 swing low returns focus to the 1.3970 Asian low
US GDP/core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 1.3970 Asian low, capped at 1.3995.
Warsh's presser drove the Fed leg from 1.4053 to the 1.3970 Asian low. Asia has since built a higher-low chain along a rising trendline. Price is pausing into London open after a rejection at the 1.3995 session high, just under the 1.4000 round number and the 38.2% retrace.
Support: 1.3988, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.3995, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4000 round number (38.2% of the Fed leg) breaks the cap on the Asian rebound
Loss of the 1.3988 higher low and the rising trendline exposes the 1.3970 Asian low
US GDP/PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows off the 1.3970 Asian low, capped below 1.4000.
The Warsh presser took USD/CAD from the 1.4053 pre-fed high through 1.4000, and early Asia swept down to the 1.3970 Asian low before a higher-low recovery. That Asia rebound met rejection at the 1.3995 session high just under the round number, and price now sits on the 23.6% retrace and the higher-low line into London open, RSI(14) cooling to 60.
Support: 1.3981, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.3995, 1.4000, 1.4053
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3981 higher low breaks the Asia rebound structure and reopens the 1.3970 Asian low
Acceptance above the 1.3995 session high and the 1.4000 round number shifts the read back to the pre-fed high at 1.4053
US core PCE, GDP and claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
06:32 UTC
Downtrend, Asia rebound stalling under 1.4000 · RSI 62 · price 1.39915
Higher lows off 1.3970 inside the Asian range, capped by the asian high.
The Warsh press conference broke USD/CAD below 1.4000 from the 1.4053 fed spike, and early Asia extended to the 1.3970 asian low near the six-week lows. Since then, a higher-low chain has lifted price back to the 1.3998 asian high, where the 1.3995 push faded. The 38.2% retrace of the Fed drop sits at 1.4001, on the round number, and price is just under EMA50 ahead of London open.
Support: 1.3983, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.3998, 1.4053
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.3998 asian high and the 1.4000 round number / 38.2% fed drop retrace extends the rebound
Break of the 1.3983 higher low and the Asia higher-lows trendline returns focus to the 1.3970 asian low
A failure of 1.3970 confirms a lower-low below the six-week lows
US Core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC (~6h) could materially shift this read; fed spike 1.4053 is in play only on a strong USD reaction
06:16 UTC
Post-Fed downtrend, intraday rebound in play · RSI 68 · price 1.39947
Higher lows off the 1.3970 Asian low, pressing the Asian high.
Warsh's press conference after the Fed hold drove USD/CAD from 1.4050 to below 1.4000, and early Asia extended the drop to an Asian low at 1.3970. Since then a higher-low chain off 1.3970 and the 1.3981 swing low has lifted price back toward the 1.3998 Asian high, just under 1.4000 psych, with RSI(14) near 68 and London open still ahead.
Support: 1.39807, 1.39696
Resistance: 1.39982, 1.4000, 1.4011
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.3998 asian high and 1.4000 psych breaks the Asian range and opens the 1.4011 fed bounce high
Close below the 1.3981 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline and puts the 1.3970 asian low back in play
US Core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC (~6h) could materially shift this read
05:47 UTC
Post-Fed downtrend, short-term recovery from Asia low · RSI 55 · price 1.39894
Higher-low chain since 1.3970, testing below Asia high.
Warsh's presser drove a roughly 60-pip slide through 1.4000 yesterday. Asia then tagged the asia low at 1.3970, the six-week low zone, and was rejected. Price has since retraced about 70% of the Asia drop on a higher low chain to 1.3989, sitting just under the ema50 (~1.3993) and the asia high at 1.3998 ahead of London open.
Support: 1.3981, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.3993, 1.3998, 1.4021
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.3998 asia high and 1.4000 round number opens the 1.4021 swing high from after the presser
Break of the rising trendline and the 1.3981 higher low returns focus to the 1.3970 asia low
Failure to hold 1.3970 confirms a lower low through the six-week low zone
US Core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
05:31 UTC
Downtrend, Asia rebound in progress · RSI 62 · price 1.39878
Higher lows off 1.3970 Asian low, testing session high.
The Fed-presser leg broke 1.4000, and Asia extended to the 1.3970 six-week low zone before a rejection there. Higher lows since have lifted price to the 1.3989 session high, at the 61.8% retrace of the Asian range, with London open about 90 minutes away.
Support: 1.3981, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.3989, 1.3998, 1.4000
What it said to watch
Close above 1.3989 session high opens the 1.3998 Asian high and the 1.4000 round number
Break of the 1.3981 higher low ends the Asia rebound structure; the 1.3970 Asian low comes back into play
US core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain off the 1.3970 Asian low, now at the 61.8% retracement of the Asian range.
The pair broke below the 1.4000 round number during Warsh's post-Fed presser. Asia then extended the move to 1.3970, the 6-wk low zone. That low was rejected, and late Asia has stepped up in higher lows to a 1.3988 session high, which sits on the 61.8% fib of the Asian high-to-low drop. ATR is a modest ~4 pips ahead of the London open.
Support: 1.39807, 1.39696
Resistance: 1.39875, 1.39982, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3981 higher low breaks the Asia HH/HL chain and the trendline support
Failure to hold 1.3970, the 6-wk low, resumes the post-Fed downtrend
Acceptance above the 1.3998 Asian high and 1.4000 round number would erase the Asia leg lower
US GDP and core PCE at 12:30 GMT (~7h) could materially shift this read
Higher-low grind off the Asian low, still inside the Asian range.
After the BoC hike and Warsh's presser pushed the pair through 1.4000 yesterday, late Asia tested the 1.3970 six-week low zone and has since built higher lows along a rising line. Price sits at 1.3984, the 50% retrace of the Asian high-to-low drop, with the 1.3987 session high near the 61.8% capping so far.
Support: 1.3981, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.39865, 1.39982, 1.4000
What it said to watch
Loss of the 1.3981 swing low breaks the rising line and puts the 1.3970 Asian low back in play
A close below 1.3970 confirms a lower-low below the six-week low zone
A close above the 1.3987 session high and 61.8% retrace opens the 1.3998 Asian high and the 1.4000 round number
US Q3 GDP and core PCE at 12:30 GMT (~7.5h) could materially shift this read
04:47 UTC
Downtrend, Asian bounce stalling · RSI 52 · price 1.39823
Higher lows off 1.3970 inside a lower-high sequence.
USDCAD extended the post-BoC and Warsh-presser slide from 1.4064 through 1.4000 to a 1.3970 Asian low, with CAD firm on the BoC hike. Late in the Asia session, higher lows have lifted price to a 1.3987 session high at the 61.8% retrace of the Asian drop. Price is stalling there, mid Asian range, with RSI(14) near 52 and ATR(14) around 5 pips.
Support: 1.39807, 1.39696, 1.3965
Resistance: 1.39865, 1.39982, 1.4000
What it said to watch
Break of the 1.3981 swing low and the rising lows trendline exposes the 1.3970 Asian low and the 1.3965 6-wk low zone
M15 close above the 1.3987 session high and 61.8% fib reopens the 1.3998 Asian high and 1.4000 psych level
London open in ~3h may set the next range test
US Q3 GDP and core PCE at 12:30 GMT (~8h) could materially shift this read
04:32 UTC
Downtrend, Asia bounce in progress · RSI 55 · price 1.39863
Lower highs since Fed presser; higher lows off 1.3970 session low.
The Fed presser at 18:30 UTC broke 1.4000. The Asia session then pressed to a 1.3970 session low, testing the six-week low zone. Since then, a chain of rising lows has lifted price to 1.3986, near the 61.8% retrace of the drop from the 1.3998 Asia high.
Support: 1.39776, 1.39696
Resistance: 1.39982, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3998 Asia high and the 1.4000 round number breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.3978 higher low exposes the 1.3970 session low and the six-week low zone
US core PCE / GDP at 12:30 UTC (~8h) could materially shift this read
The selloff during Warsh's press conference carried into Asia. The pair tagged the 1.3970 asian low, at the six-week low zone, then printed a chain of rising lows back to a 1.3985 rebound high. That high sits near the 50% retrace of the Asian drop, with price flat on EMA20 and RSI(14) neutral at 48. It is late Asia ahead of London open and price is mid-range between 1.3970 and the 1.3998 asian high, with no break in play.
Support: 1.3978, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.3985, 1.3998
What it said to watch
A break of the 1.3978 rising lows trendline puts the 1.3970 asian low and the six-week low zone back in focus
An M15 close above the 1.3985 rebound high and the 61.8% retrace near 1.3987 exposes the 1.3998 asian high and the 1.4000 round number
US core PCE, GDP and claims at 12:30 UTC (~8h) could materially shift this read
Post-Fed lower highs; Asia building higher lows inside Asian range.
The Warsh press conference ('hikes are working') knocked USD/CAD from 1.4053 to below 1.40, and BoC-driven CAD strength carried it to a 1.3970 Asian low at the six-week low zone. Late Asia has printed a higher low at 1.3978 and a recent high at 1.3985, putting price mid-way through the 1.3970–1.3998 Asian range. A rising trendline links the two lows, and price sits near the 50% fib of the Asian high-to-low leg.
Support: 1.39776, 1.39696
Resistance: 1.39849, 1.39982, 1.40212
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.3978 higher low breaks the rising trendline and puts the 1.3970 asian low back in play
An M15 close below the 1.3970 asian low extends the downtrend toward the 1.3950 area
A close above the 1.3998 asian high and 1.4000 round number shifts focus to the 1.4021 post-fed lh
Rejection at the 1.3985 recent high keeps the 50% fib capping the rebound
US core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC (~8.5h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs since the presser high; higher lows off the Asia low inside the 1.3970–1.3998 Asian range.
Warsh's press conference knocked USD/CAD from the 1.4053 presser high through 1.4000 in NY hours, and Asia extended the move to a 1.3970 Asia low at the multi-week floor. Buyers stepped in there, printing a higher-low chain up to 1.3978. The bounce is stalling at the 1.3983 bounce high, just under ema20, late in the Asia session.
Support: 1.39776, 1.39696
Resistance: 1.39829, 1.39982, 1.40526
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3970 Asia low breaks the multi-week floor and resumes the downtrend
Loss of the 1.3978 higher low breaks the Asia rebound trendline
Close above the 1.3998 Asia high and 1.4000 reclaims the 38.2% retrace of the presser drop
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~9h) could materially shift this read
03:32 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in late Asia · RSI 41 · price 1.39783
Lower highs under falling trendline; tight 1.3970–1.3983 consolidation.
Warsh's presser at 18:30 UTC pushed USD/CAD through 1.4000 after the BoC hike. Asia then set a session low at 1.3970, and the bounce stalled at the 1.3983 bounce high, near the 50% fib of the Asian high-low leg. Price now sits on a 1.3975 higher low, below EMA20 and under the falling trendline from the Fed-reaction high, with RSI(14) at 41 and ATR around 6.5 pips.
Support: 1.39752, 1.39696
Resistance: 1.39829, 1.39982
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3983 bounce high puts the asian high at 1.3998 and 1.4000 back in play
A close above the asian high breaks the falling trendline and the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 1.3975 higher low and the 1.3970 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.3950 reference cited in the digest
London open in ~3.5h is likely to break the current Asian range
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~9h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.4064, micro higher lows off 1.3970.
Lower highs have held since the BoC spike to 1.4064 and the Warsh-presser drop through 1.4000. Asia extended to a 1.3970 session low, and the 13-pip bounce has stalled just under ema20 near 1.3984, which also sits at the 50% retrace of the Asian high to low leg. RSI(14) is neutral at 46.
Support: 1.39752, 1.39696
Resistance: 1.3984, 1.39982, 1.4000
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.3998 asian high and the 1.4000 round number would break the lower-high sequence
Rejection at ema20 and a loss of the 1.3975 higher low would put the 1.3970 session low back in play
London open in about 4h could set the session range away from the Asian lows
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (about 9h away) could materially shift this read
The lower-high sequence has held since the BoC spike rejected at 1.4064 and Warsh's presser capped price at 1.4053. Asia extended the slide to a 1.3970 asian low, and late in the session price has bounced off a 1.3973 higher low. It is now testing the midpoint of the Asian drop near 1.3984, below EMA20, with RSI(14) at about 47.
Support: 1.39731, 1.39696
Resistance: 1.39873, 1.39982, 1.40054
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.3987 fib 61.8 and the 1.3998 asian high brings the 1.4000 pivot and the 1.4005 lower high back into play.
A break of the 1.3973 higher low and the 1.3970 asian low resumes the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3950 wedge boundary.
US Q3 GDP and core PCE at 12:30 UTC (~9.5h) could materially shift this read.
02:47 UTC
Downtrend, Asian low holding · RSI 46 · price 1.39808
Lower highs from post-Fed peak, base forming at 1.3970.
The post-BoC slide below 1.4000 deepened on Warsh's presser, and the Asia session printed a fresh session low at 1.3970, which held on three tests. Price is now pressing the 1.3982 lower high at the 38.2% fib of the 1.3998 asian high to 1.3970 drop. The lower-high chain from the 1.4011 post-fed hi remains intact.
Support: 1.3970
Resistance: 1.3982, 1.3998, 1.4011
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3982 lower high breaks the micro lower-high sequence and puts the 1.3998 asian high and 1.4000 back in play
Failure to hold the 1.3970 session low confirms another lower low in the post-Fed decline
A break of the lower-highs trendline from the 1.4011 post-fed hi would end the intraday downtrend read
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~10h) could materially shift this read
02:32 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 39 · price 1.39759
Lower highs and lower lows since the post-Fed drop; tight 1.3970–1.3982 box in Asia.
The drop from 1.4053 during Warsh's presser, after yesterday's BoC hike, has kept a clean lower-high chain. Early Asia broke the 1.3982 prior low and printed a 1.3970 Asian low. Price is now compressing just under the descending trendline, with the 1.3998 Asian high and 1.4000 above and RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 1.3970
Resistance: 1.3982, 1.3998
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3982 prior low and the descending trendline would break the lower-high chain
A reclaim of the 1.3998 Asian high and 1.4000 would undo the post-Fed breakdown
Failure to hold the 1.3970 Asian low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3965 six-week low area
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~10h) could materially shift this read
LH/LL chain since Fed presser; Asia session low just printed.
The post-Warsh presser leg lower extended in mid-Asia. Price broke the 1.3982 early-Asia low, retested it as a lower high at 1.3981 and was rejected, then printed a session low at 1.3970, with the falling trendline from 1.4053 still capping. RSI(14) sits near 37, price is below both EMAs, and the 1.3965 6-week low is the next marker below.
Support: 1.39696, 1.3965
Resistance: 1.39816, 1.39982
What it said to watch
A failed hold of the 1.3970 session low puts the 1.3965 6-week low in play.
An M15 close above the 1.3982 lower high and the falling trendline weakens the LH/LL read.
Reclaiming the 1.3998 asian high and the 1.4000 pivot would mark failed post-BoC follow-through.
US Q3 GDP and core PCE at 12:30 UTC (~10h) could materially shift this read.
LH/LL sequence since presser; testing session low.
The Warsh presser drop from 1.4053 set a lower-high chain. The Asia high stalled at 1.3998 under 1.4000, and the falling trendline now caps near the 1.3982 lower high. Price is retesting the 1.3970 six-wk low twice in the past hour, with RSI(14) near 36 and not yet stretched.
Support: 1.3970, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3982, 1.3998
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3982 lower high and the falling trendline breaks the LH sequence
Failure to hold the 1.3970 six-wk low exposes the 1.3950 half figure
A return above the 1.3998 asia high reclaims the 1.4000 pivot
US core PCE / Q3 GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~10h) could materially shift this read
01:47 UTC
Downtrend, fresh low in Asia · RSI 38 · price 1.39788
Lower highs and lower lows since the post-Fed presser drop.
USD/CAD extended the slide that started at Warsh's press conference from the 1.4053 presser high. It printed a fresh Asia low at 1.3971 early in the session, at the edge of the 1.3970–1.3965 six-week low zone. The bounce stalled just under the 1.3982 prior low, with lower highs intact and RSI(14) near 38.
Support: 1.3971, 1.3965
Resistance: 1.3982, 1.3998, 1.4053
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3965 six-week low extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery above the 1.3998 Asia high and 1.4000 breaks the lower-high chain and brings the 1.4053 presser high back into view
Failure to reclaim the 1.3982 prior low keeps price pinned near the Asia low
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~11h) could materially shift this read
01:31 UTC
Downtrend, extending in Asia · RSI 31 · price 1.39728
Lower highs since the post-Fed spike; Asian range broken to the downside.
The post-Fed leg lower from 1.4053 carried into the Asia session. The 1.3982 Asian low gave way around 01:00 UTC, printing a 1.3971 session low even as the USD firms elsewhere, which points to CAD-side strength. Price is now probing the 1.3970–1.3965 six-week low zone, with RSI(14) near 31 and not yet oversold.
Support: 1.3971, 1.3965
Resistance: 1.3982, 1.3998
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.3982 asian low would turn the range break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.3965 6-week low exposes the ~1.3950 area
A reclaim of the 1.3998 session high breaks the lower-highs trendline sequence
US core PCE and GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~11h) could materially shift this read
01:17 UTC
Downtrend, post-Fed leg extending · RSI 38 · price 1.39837
Lower highs and lower lows below 1.4000, pressing the Asian low.
USD/CAD broke below 1.4000 after the Fed hold as the broad USD softened, and the BoC hike did not lift CAD. Asia printed a rejection at the 1.3998 Asian high and has rotated back to the 1.3982 Asian low. Price sits below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) near 38, short of oversold.
Support: 1.3982, 1.3965
Resistance: 1.3998, 1.4021
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3982 asian low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.3965 6-week low
Reclaim of the 1.3998 asian high and 1.4000 psych neutralises the post-Fed leg; 1.4021 lower high and the lower highs trendline sit above
London open could break the narrow Asian range
US core PCE and GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~11h) could materially shift this read; Canada GDP follows Fri
01:05 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in Asia · RSI 47 · price 1.39917
Lower highs below 1.4000 after post-Fed range break.
The Fed statement knocked USD/CAD off its 1.4053 fed spike high and through the 1.4000 round number, ending the 1.4000–1.4050 BoC range and setting a 1.4011 lower high. Early Asia printed an asian low at 1.3982. The bounce stalled at 1.3998, under the round number and the 23.6% fib, with RSI(14) neutral near 47.
Support: 1.3982, 1.3965
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4011, 1.4053
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4000 round number and the 1.4011 lower high would break the post-Fed lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 1.3982 asian low exposes the 1.3965 6-week low
Lower-highs line from the post-Fed bounce caps price near 1.3998; a close above it weakens the downtrend read
US core PCE and GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~11h) could materially shift this read
00:47 UTC
Downtrend after the Fed, stalling just below 1.4000 · RSI 51 · price 1.39938
Lower highs from the Fed bar high; tight Asian range 1.3982–1.3998.
USD weakness after the Fed hold drove USDCAD off the 1.4053 Fed bar high and through 1.4000. The fed drop extended to the 1.3982 Asian low early in the Asia session, below the 1.3989 post-fed low. Price is now coiling inside a 16-pip Asian range under the 1.3998 Asian high and round number, with RSI(14) neutral near 51 and EMA20 flattening at price.
Support: 1.39886, 1.39821
Resistance: 1.39982, 1.4011, 1.40526
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3998 Asian high and 1.4000 round number reopens the 1.4011 post-fed hi
Break of the 1.3982 Asian low extends the post-Fed lower-low sequence
Recovery through the 1.4053 Fed bar high would negate the post-Fed downtrend
US core PCE and GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~12h) could materially shift this read; Canada GDP follows Fri
Post-Fed range break lower, price retesting 1.4000 from below.
The Fed presser selloff broke the 1.4030–1.4065 range that had held through the BoC whipsaw, and the pair printed a post-fed low at 1.3989 after USD weakened broadly. Early Asia extended to a session low at 1.3982 before a two-bar bounce back to the 1.4000 psych level, which sits on the 23.6% fib of the post-Fed leg. ATR near 5 pips reflects thin Asian conditions after the 70-pip Fed range.
Support: 1.39886, 1.39821, 1.3965
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4009
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4000 psych and the 38.2% fib at 1.4009 would reclaim the level and point back toward the old range floor near 1.4030
Rejection at 1.4000 followed by a break of the 1.3982 session low would extend the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3965 six-week low
Back-to-back US core PCE and GDP on Thu 12:30 UTC (~12h) could materially shift this read
Canada Aug GDP on Fri 12:30 UTC is the next CAD-side risk
Post-Fed lower highs and lower lows; tight Asian range 1.3982–1.3995.
USD/CAD broke out of the 1.4000–1.4050 range during the Fed press conference, with broad post-Fed USD weakness driving a 70-pip leg to a 1.3982 Asia low. Early Asia is bouncing to 1.3992 but price remains under EMA20 near 1.3996, the 1.3995 Asia high and 1.4000 psych.
Support: 1.3982, 1.3965, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3995, 1.4000, 1.4026
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.3995 Asia high and 1.4000 psych, near the 23.6% fib of the Fed leg, puts price back into the prior range
Pre-Fed low at 1.4026 marks the breakdown point; a reclaim invalidates the range-break read
Failure to hold the 1.3982 Asia low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.3965 6-week low and 1.3950 wedge base
US core PCE and GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~12h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs under a flat range top after a break below 1.4030 and 1.4000.
The post-Fed leg broke the BoC-to-Fed range at the 1.4030 pre-Fed low and the 1.4000 handle. The USD sell-the-fact dip has already pushed price below the 1.4000–1.4050 range in the CAD digest. Early Asia session is grinding beneath a flat range top at 1.3998, with a fresh Asia low at 1.3982 and RSI(14) near 35.
Support: 1.3982, 1.3965
Resistance: 1.3998, 1.4030
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.3998 range top and 1.4000 opens the 50% retrace of the post-Fed leg near 1.4017
Failure to hold the 1.3982 Asia low exposes the 1.3965 6-week low cited in the CAD digest
Reclaim of the 1.4030 pre-Fed low would negate the post-Fed breakdown
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~12.5h) could materially shift this read