Lower highs since Wednesday, fresh week low Thursday.
USDCAD opened the week near 1.4013 and reached a 1.4068 week high early Wednesday. The BoC hike and Fed-day trade then turned it lower, breaking the 1.40 round number late in Wednesday's NY session. Thursday's US GDP beat lifted the pair back to 1.4014, supply capped it at the weekly open, and NY hours extended to a fresh 1.3965 week low, keeping the lower-high trendline intact. Price sits below EMA(20) near 1.3988 with RSI(14) around 44, and the bounce has not reached the 38.2% fib of the week's decline.
Support: 1.39649, 1.3920
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.40135, 1.40682
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.4000 round number and the lower-high trendline would break the sequence of lower highs
Failure to hold the 1.3965 week low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 1.3900/1.3920 support zone
Canada Aug GDP and US ECI, both Fri 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
A sustained move through the weekly open near 1.4013 shifts focus back toward the 1.4068 week high
22:03 UTC
Downtrend since Wednesday's peak, stalling near week low · RSI 45 · price 1.39835
Lower highs and lower lows below 1.4000 after Wednesday's BoC/Fed break.
The week's high at 1.4068 printed in Wednesday's Asia session. The hawkish-leaning BoC hike and the Fed hold then broke the pair below 1.4000 during NY hours, and it has printed lower highs and lower lows since. Thursday's US GDP beat spiked price to 1.4014, just under the weekly open and the 50% retracement of the week-high-to-low drop, before a rejection sent it to a new week low at 1.3965 in the NY session. Price now sits just below EMA(20) near 1.3990 with RSI(14) around 45, holding a narrow range above the week low.
Support: 1.39649, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.3990, 1.40152, 1.40682
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4015 weekly open and the lower-highs line would invalidate the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.3965 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3900 round number
EMA(20) near 1.3990 has capped the late-NY bounce; acceptance above it shifts the read to range
Canada Aug GDP and US Q3 ECI, both Friday 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Mon–Wed range broke lower post-BoC/Fed; lower highs since Wed peak.
USDCAD held a 1.3998–1.4068 range Monday to Wednesday. Wednesday's hawkish BoC hike and the Fed hold broke it lower during late NY hours, taking price below 1.40 for the first time this week. Thursday's US GDP beat lifted the pair to a lower high at 1.4014, which stalled short of the 50% retrace of the week's drop. NY-session selling then set a week low at 1.3965, briefly undercutting Thursday's 1.3970 lows before price reclaimed them. Price now presses the falling EMA(20) near 1.3990, with RSI(14) at 43 and EMA(50) overhead at 1.4004.
Support: 1.3970, 1.3965, 1.3920
Resistance: 1.3990, 1.4004, 1.4014
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4014 lower high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the sequence from Wednesday's 1.4068 peak
1.4004 ema50, 1.40 and the 38.2% fib cluster: area to watch for rejection or break
Close below the 1.3965 week low extends the downtrend toward the 1.39 zone (1.3900–1.3920)
Canada Aug GDP and US ECI, both at 12:30 UTC Friday, could materially shift this read
20:03 UTC
Downtrend since Wednesday, bounce stalling under 1.40 · RSI 50 · price 1.39911
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.4068 week high; Mon–Tue range broken lower.
After a Mon–Tue range of 1.4005–1.4055 and a Wednesday Asia push to the 1.4068 week high, USDCAD broke below 1.40 through Wednesday's BoC hike and Fed hold, carving lower highs at 1.4064, 1.4053 and 1.4014. Thursday's US GDP beat lifted the pair to that 1.4014 data high early in the NY session, but the move was rejected and price slid to a fresh 1.3965 week low late in NY hours. Price has since recovered to 1.3991, just above ema20 near 1.3986, with RSI(14) back at 50 and the weekly open at 1.4038 well overhead.
Support: 1.3986, 1.3965
Resistance: 1.4014, 1.4038, 1.4068
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4014 data high breaks the lower-highs trendline and the 38.2% retrace of the week's drop near 1.4004
Failure to hold the 1.3965 week low extends the lower-low sequence
Loss of ema20 at 1.3986 returns price to the bottom of the week's drop
Canada Aug GDP and US ECI Q3, both Fri 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Reclaim of the 1.4038 weekly open would put the 1.4068 week high back in view
Lower highs and lower lows below 1.40 after Wednesday's breakdown.
The week opened near 1.4038 and climbed to a 1.4068 week high in Wednesday's Asia session. The BoC hike and Fed hold sessions then flipped the structure, and late Wednesday NY selling took the pair back below 1.40. Since then the lower-highs line has capped at 1.4053 and 1.4014. That second lower high was the post-US data spike, rejected during NY near the 50% retracement of the week's drop, before a fresh 1.3965 week low printed. Price sits just under EMA(20) ~1.3990, and RSI(14) near 45 is recovering from the lows without reaching 50.
Support: 1.39649, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.3990, 1.40141, 1.40682
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4014 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and the 50% retracement
Failure to hold the 1.3965 week low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 1.3900 round number
EMA(20) at ~1.3990 has capped each bounce since Wednesday; a sustained reclaim would soften the downtrend read
Canada August GDP and US Q3 ECI, both Fri 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
18:03 UTC
Downtrend since Wednesday's week high · RSI 43 · price 1.39764
Lower highs and lower lows below 1.40, fresh week low.
USD/CAD has put in lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday's Asia-session week high at 1.4068. The Fed-decision bar took price below 1.40 after the hawkish BoC hike, and the pair has not reclaimed the weekly open at 1.4038 since. Thursday's NY-session spike to the 1.4014 thu high on the US GDP beat was rejected inside the 38–50% retracement of the week's decline, and price has since set a fresh week low at 1.3965, trading below both the ema20 near 1.3986 and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 43.
Support: 1.39649, 1.3950, 1.3920
Resistance: 1.3986, 1.40141, 1.40384
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 1.4014 thu high breaks the lower-highs trendline and the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.3965 week low exposes the 1.3950 round number, then the 1.3900–1.3920 support zone
A sustained recovery above the ema20 and back through the 1.4038 weekly open would neutralise the downtrend read
Canada Aug GDP and US ECI, both Fri 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
USD/CAD has printed lower highs since Wednesday's 1.4068 week high, and the Fed decision during NY hours broke it back below 1.40 into a 1.3970 week low in the Asia session. Thursday's spike on the US GDP beat stalled at 1.4014 (thu high), near the 50% retracement of the Wed–Thu drop, and was rejected through the NY session, back under the ema20 and the 1.4038 weekly open. Price is now retesting the week low for a third time, with the lower-highs line and flat base forming a descending-triangle shape and RSI(14) near 40 showing no bullish divergence.
Support: 1.3970, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3987, 1.4014, 1.4038
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3970 week low confirms a lower low and exposes the 1.3950 round number
Recovery above the 1.4014 thu high breaks the lower-highs line and invalidates the downtrend read
Holding back under the ema20 near 1.3987 keeps supply capping each bounce
Canada Aug GDP and US ECI, both Fri 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
16:03 UTC
Down since Wednesday, lower highs intact · RSI 40 · price 1.39789
Range break lower; lower highs capping, lows holding near 1.3970.
USDCAD rotated in a 1.3998–1.4068 range from Monday to Wednesday, then broke lower after Wednesday's Fed hold and set a week low at 1.3970 in Thursday's Asia session. The bounce on today's US GDP beat stalled at 1.4014, which sits near EMA(50) and the 38.2–50% retracement of the Wednesday–Thursday drop. NY hours have since given that bounce back, leaving price under the range floor and below EMA(20) near 1.3994. RSI(14) at ~40 has lifted off the mid-20s while lows held just above the week low, a sign of demand stepping in around 1.3970.
Support: 1.39696, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.39981, 1.40141, 1.40384
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.3998 range floor and EMA(20) would reopen the prior range read
Failure to hold the 1.3970 week low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 1.3950 psych level
A break above the 1.4014 data high clears the lower-highs trendline and puts the 1.4038 weekly open in view
Canada Aug GDP and US ECI, both Fri 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
15:03 UTC
Pullback from week high, rebounds capped by lower highs · RSI 46 · price 1.39876
Lower highs since Wednesday's 1.4068 peak; Thursday range 1.3970–1.4015 above the week low.
The Monday–Wednesday advance topped at the 1.4068 week high early Wednesday. The pair then reversed during NY hours around the Fed decision, breaking back below the 1.4038 weekly open and the 1.40 pivot. Thursday has traded a 1.3970–1.4015 range with the week low tested twice, and the post-GDP bounce at the NY open to the 1.4014 Thu high stalled near the 38.2% retracement of the Wed–Thu sell-off before a rejection back under EMA(20) and EMA(50). RSI(14) near 46 sits mid-range, and the lower highs trendline has capped each rebound since Wednesday.
Support: 1.3984, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.4014, 1.4038, 1.4068
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4014 Thu high and the lower highs trendline breaks the sequence and opens the 1.4038 weekly open
Loss of the 1.3984 ny low exposes the 1.3970 week low; failure there confirms a lower-low below the September-area base
Canada Aug GDP and US ECI, both Fri 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
14:03 UTC
Downtrend from week high, basing near 1.3970 · RSI 46 · price 1.40019
Lower highs since Wednesday; double bottom at the week low testing 1.4000.
USD/CAD reversed from Wednesday's 1.4068 week high in the Asia session after the BoC hike and the Fed's hawkish hold, and printed a series of lower highs into a double bottom at the 1.3970 week low during Thursday's Asia and London sessions. The US GDP beat and lower claims early in the NY session lifted price back over the 1.4000 round number, where EMA(20) also sits, and briefly through the 38.2% fib of the week's drop. The bounce stalled at EMA(50) near 1.4011, with RSI(14) back in the mid-40s.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.4011, 1.4038, 1.4068
What it said to watch
H1 close above the ema50 at 1.4011 and the 1.4038 weekly open would confirm the double bottom and end the lower-high sequence from the week high
Failure to hold the 1.4000 round number re-exposes the 1.3970 week low; a break there extends the downtrend
A push toward the 1.4068 week high would retrace most of the post-Fed drop and neutralise the downtrend read
Canada Aug GDP and US ECI, both Friday 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows below EMA20 since Wednesday's NY session; week low under test.
USDCAD has erased the full Monday–Wednesday climb to the 1.4068 week high. The decisive leg came in Wednesday's NY session, when the BoC hike was followed by Warsh's cautious press conference and the pair slid from 1.4053 toward 1.3990. Thursday's London bounce stalled at the 1.4002 Thu high, a rejection near the 1.4000 handle and short of the 38.2% retracement of the Wed high–Thu low drop. That left a lower high beneath the EMA20 at 1.3995 and the EMA50 near 1.4011, and price is now back pressing the 1.3970 week low with RSI(14) near 36.
Support: 1.3970, 1.3940
Resistance: 1.3995, 1.40015, 1.40384
What it said to watch
US Q3 GDP and core PCE at 12:30 UTC, within the next bar, could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 1.3970 week low extends the lower-low sequence and opens the path toward the 1.3940 wedge base
H1 close back above the 1.4002 Thu high and the 38.2% retracement near 1.4007 breaks the lower-highs trendline from the Fed-bar high
Recovery of the 1.4038 weekly open would neutralise the post-BoC/Fed reversal
ECB decision today and Canada Aug GDP Friday 12:30 UTC are further risk to the structure
Lower highs from 1.4068; range 1.3970–1.4002 below the round number.
USDCAD turned lower from Wednesday's 1.4068 week high after the BoC's 25bp hike and the Fed hold. The post-Fed hour broke the 1.4030 pre-fed base, and the Asia session pushed to a 1.3970 week low, matching Friday's low. The London bounce faded at 1.4002, below the round number and the 38.2% fib, leaving price under EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 42; a higher low at 1.3978 is the only sign of stabilisation so far.
Support: 1.3978, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.4002, 1.4030, 1.4068
What it said to watch
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 1.4000 round number and the lower-highs line reopens the 1.4030 pre-fed base
Failure to hold the 1.3970 week low confirms a lower-low below Friday's low
Loss of the 1.3978 higher low returns price to the week low
Lower highs since Wed; short rising-lows base off 1.3970 capped by ema20.
USDCAD has carved lower highs since Wednesday's Asia-session week high at 1.4068. Supply capped the post-BoC-hike spike, and Warsh's cautious Fed presser pushed price through the 1.4000 round number during NY hours, extending to a 1.3970 week low in Asia. London has since built rising lows near 1.3988, but the pair is stalling at ema20/1.40, where the push to 1.4002 met rejection, with price below EMA(50) and RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 1.3988, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4038, 1.4068
What it said to watch
H1 close above ema20/1.40 opens the 50% retracement near 1.4019 and the 1.4038 weekly open
Close above the lower highs line near 1.4035, by the weekly open, ends the sequence of lower highs since Wednesday
Break of the rising lows at 1.3988 exposes the 1.3970 week low; a close below confirms a fresh lower-low
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~2.5h) could materially shift this read, with the ECB decision also today
USDCAD's Monday–Wednesday climb to the 1.4068 week high reversed after the BoC hike and the Fed presser. The pair broke below 1.4000 during NY hours Wednesday and printed a 1.3970 week low in Asia today, almost matching last Friday's 1.3968 low. Since then price has compressed in a roughly 30-pip band capped by EMA(20) and the 1.4000 psych level, with RSI(14) recovering to the mid-40s and the sequence of lower highs from the week high still intact.
Support: 1.39696
Resistance: 1.4001, 1.40384, 1.40682
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.4000 psych/EMA(20) area, where the 38.2% fib of the week high-low drop sits near 1.4007, reopens the 1.4038 weekly open
Failure to hold the 1.3970 week low, alongside Friday's 1.3968, extends the post-FOMC lower-low sequence
A close above the lower-highs line from the 1.4068 week high would undercut the downtrend read
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 GMT (~3.5h) could materially shift this read; Canada GDP follows Friday
Post-Fed range break below 1.4000; testing six-week low.
USD/CAD gave back the Monday–Wednesday climb to the 1.4068 week high, shedding ~100 pips across the BoC hike and the Fed hold plus Warsh presser in Wednesday's NY session. The Asian session extended to 1.3970, matching last Friday's six-week low. Price sits below EMA(20) near 1.4005 and EMA(50) near 1.4019 with RSI(14) near 30, while the 1.4000 round number and the 38.2% fib of the drop (~1.4007) now sit just overhead.
Support: 1.3970
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4038, 1.4068
What it said to watch
US Q3 GDP and core PCE at 12:30 GMT (~7h) could materially shift this read
H1 close back above the 1.4000 round number and EMA(20) puts the range break in question
Failure to hold the 1.3970 six-week low confirms a lower-low below last Friday's base
Recovery through the 1.4038 weekly open and the 61.8% fib would neutralise the post-Fed drop; week high at 1.4068 caps above
Canada August GDP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.2%) is the next CAD-side risk
04:04 UTC
Downtrend since Wednesday's NY session, momentum stretched · RSI 32 · price 1.39838
Mon–Wed range broken lower, price parked on the 6-week low.
The week opened with a gap at 1.4038 (weekly open) and held a 1.3998–1.4068 range through Wednesday, with each push higher, including the 1.4068 week high, faded. That range gave way in NY hours on Wednesday: the BoC hike spike was rejected near 1.4064, then the Warsh press conference drove a post-Fed drop that extended in the Asia session to 1.3970, matching Friday's 6-week low. Price now sits below an EMA(20) near the 1.4000 round number with RSI(14) near 32, and the 1.3968–1.3970 area has held on both tests.
Support: 1.3970
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4038, 1.4068
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3970 6-week low extends the lower-low sequence out of the range
Reclaim of the 1.4000 round number and EMA(20) would put price back toward the 50% retrace of the post-Fed drop near 1.4019
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~8.5h) could materially shift this read
Weekly open at 1.4038 and week high at 1.4068 cap the former range
Double top at 1.4068/1.4064 broken; lower highs since the Fed.
The week opened gapped up at 1.4038 and ground higher through Tuesday's NY session to a week high of 1.4068 in Wednesday's Asian hours. A second push to 1.4064 after the BoC's 25bp hike also failed. The Fed hold and Warsh's presser then broke the 1.4026 neckline of that double top, and selling extended through the 1.4000 psych level into today's Asia session. Price now sits just above the six-wk low at 1.3970, tested twice since Friday, with RSI(14) near 34 and price capped below a falling ema20 around 1.4009 along a series of lower highs.
Support: 1.3970
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4009, 1.4068
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above 1.4000 psych and the ema20 near 1.4009 would undercut the breakdown read and put the 1.4019–1.4031 fib zone in play
Failure to hold the 1.3970 six-wk low confirms a lower low and exposes the ~1.3950 area
Break of the lower highs trendline from the Fed bar would signal the post-Fed leg is losing momentum
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~10h) could materially shift this read; Canada Aug GDP follows Friday
The 1.4068 week high remains the level that would reinstate the earlier uptrend
02:04 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after FOMC-led drop · RSI 27 · price 1.39738
Lower highs from 1.4068, Mon-Tue range broken lower.
The week opened with a gap up at 1.4038. Price peaked at the 1.4068 week high early Wednesday, then set lower highs through the BoC hike and the Fed hold. The decisive leg came in the NY session as Warsh's press conference was read as less hawkish, breaking the Mon-Tue floor near 1.4000. Asia extended the drop to 1.3970, just above Friday's 6-week low at 1.3968, with RSI(14) oversold near 27 and price well below EMA(20) and EMA(50).
Support: 1.3968, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4038, 1.4068
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.4000 psych level would mark failed follow-through on the range break; the 38.2% fib sits near 1.4008
Failure to hold the 1.3968 6-week low opens the 1.3950 round number
Lower-highs trendline from 1.4068 caps rebounds; a break above it and the 1.4038 weekly open negates the downtrend read
US core PCE and Q3 GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~10h) could materially shift this read, Canada Aug GDP follows Fri
Lower highs from 1.4068 week high; 1.4000 range floor broken.
The Mon–Wed advance came in NY-session legs and topped at 1.4068 early Wednesday. The BoC hike whipsawed price without lasting CAD support, and the post-FOMC USD pullback then erased the week's gains, taking price back below the week open and the 1.4000 round number to a week low at 1.3982. Price now sits under EMA(20) near 1.4017 and EMA(50), with lower highs stepping down from the week high and RSI(14) flattening near 30 after an oversold dip.
Support: 1.39821, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.40167, 1.40384
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.4000 round number and the ema20 near 1.4017 would mark the break as a false break
A rebound that stalls below the 1.4038 week open, near the 50% fib of the Fed reversal, keeps the lower-highs sequence intact
Failure to hold the 1.3982 week low exposes Friday's 1.3968 six-week low (friday low)
US core PCE and GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~11h) could materially shift this read; Canada GDP follows Fri 12:30 UTC
00:04 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after a sharp post-Fed reversal · RSI 26 · price 1.39874
Week's higher-low sequence broken; 1.4000–1.4050 range base lost, lower highs since Wednesday.
The pair held Monday's 1.3998 low and built higher lows through Tuesday's NY session to a week high at 1.4068 early Wednesday. The BoC hike to 2.50% whipsawed price between 1.4030 and 1.4064 without follow-through. The Fed hold and its sell-the-fact dollar dip then broke the higher-low line and the 1.4000 round number, erasing the week's gains below the 1.4038 weekly open. Price now sits under the EMA(20) near 1.4019 and the EMA(50) near 1.4028, with RSI(14) at 26 and a quiet Asia session holding above the 1.3982 session low.
Support: 1.39821, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.40191, 1.40384
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.4000 round number would mark the drop as a false break and return price to the prior range
Failure to hold the 1.3982 session low exposes Friday's low at 1.3968, the six-week low
38.2% retrace of the Wednesday decline at ~1.4015, near the ema20, is the first area to watch for rejection on any rebound
Lower-high line from the 1.4068 week high caps the structure while it holds; the weekly open at 1.4038 sits just below it
US core PCE and Q3 GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~13h) could materially shift this read
Canada August GDP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.2%) is the next CAD-side risk