USD/CAD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Wednesday, 28 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/CAD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:47 UTC
Downtrend, fresh lows into early Asia · RSI 25 · price 1.39846
Lower highs since Fed presser; post-Fed low at 1.3989 broken.
USD sold off on the Fed hold, a sell-the-fact move that drove the pair from 1.4053 through the 1.4000 round number during NY hours. That leaves the BoC-day 1.4000–1.4050 range broken. Early Asia session has now slipped under the 1.3989 post-Fed low to a 1.3985 session low, with RSI(14) near 25 and a shallow lower-highs line capping bounces.
Support: 1.39846, 1.3965
Resistance: 1.39886, 1.4000, 1.40106
What it said to watch
Recovery back above the 1.3989 post-fed low would turn the latest leg into a false break
M15 close above the 1.4000 round number and the 38.2% fib at 1.4011 negates the lower-highs sequence
Extension lower exposes the 1.3970–1.3965 6-week low area
US core PCE and Q3 GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~13h) could materially shift this read
Post-Fed break below 1.4000, tight base above session low.
USDCAD whipsawed through 1.4050 on the BoC hike, then the post-Fed sell-the-fact USD dip broke the 1.4000–1.4050 range. The bounce stalled with a lower high at 1.4021 and price has since compressed in a 1.3987–1.3998 band under the 1.4000 round number. Early Asia session just printed a marginal new session low at 1.3987, with RSI(14) near 28 and ATR contracting to about 6 pips.
Support: 1.39873, 1.3965
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.40212, 1.40526
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4000 round number neutralises the breakdown read
Failure to hold the 1.3987 session low exposes the 1.3965–1.3970 six-week low
Reclaim of the 1.4021 fed bounce high breaks the lower-highs sequence; the 1.4053 pre-fed high caps above
US core PCE and GDP in ~13h could materially shift this read
Post-Fed range break below 1.4000, tight base forming above 1.3989.
The Warsh press conference spiked price to 1.4053 (fed high), then broke the 1.4030–1.4040 pre-Fed range and the 1.4000 round number as USD softened on a sell-the-fact reaction, printing a 1.3989 NY low at 20:00 UTC. Since then price has held in a 9-pip drift above that low through rollover into the Asia session. RSI(14) sits near 29 and ATR has compressed to about 5 pips.
Support: 1.3989, 1.3965
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4026, 1.4053
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 1.4000 round number toward the fib 38.2% at 1.4013 would ease the post-Fed breakdown read
M15 close back above 1.4026 (london low) puts price back inside the pre-Fed range
Failure to hold the 1.3989 NY low exposes the 1.3965 6-week low
US core PCE and Q3 GDP on Thu 12:30 UTC (~13h) could materially shift this read
The 1.4030–1.4065 range survived the BoC whipsaw at 13:45 UTC but gave way on the 18:30 UTC Fed presser bar, as Warsh's hawkish hold drew a sell-the-fact USD drop. The slide cut through the 1.4000 round number to a 1.3989 post-Fed low. The early Asia session is compressing in a 1.3989–1.3998 band, with RSI(14) near 33 and ATR(14) down to about 6 pips.
Support: 1.3989, 1.3967
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4013, 1.4030
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3989 post-Fed low extends the lower-low chain toward the 6-week low at 1.3965–1.3970
Reclaim of the 1.4000 round number and the 38.2% fib of the Fed drop at 1.4013 would undercut the breakdown read
Return above the 1.4030 range floor negates the range break
US Core PCE and Q3 GDP, Thu 12:30 UTC (~13h), could materially shift this read
22:47 UTC
Downtrend, compressing after post-Fed leg lower · RSI 34 · price 1.39917
Range break below 1.4000; tight base above 1.3989 post-Fed low.
The BoC whipsaw held within the day's range, with a 1.4064 spike reversed to 1.4030. Warsh's presser then broke the 1.4030 pre-Fed low and the 1.4000 round number, driving a slide from 1.4053 to a 1.3989 post-Fed low during NY hours. Since NY close, price has compressed in a roughly 6-pip band just under 1.4000 in thin trade, with RSI(14) near 34. The 1.4021 pullback high sits at the 50% retrace of the Fed drop.
Support: 1.39886, 1.3965
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.40212, 1.40302
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4000 round number would neutralise the range break; the 1.4021 pullback high sits next above
Reclaim of the 1.4030 pre-Fed low would put price back inside the prior range
Failure to hold the 1.3989 post-Fed low exposes the 1.3965 6-week low
Core PCE and Q3 GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~14h) could materially shift this read
22:32 UTC
Downtrend after Fed, stalling · RSI 35 · price 1.39942
Range break lower, tight base under 1.4000.
The Fed presser broke the 1.4000–1.4050 BoC-day range lower. Price slid about 64 pips from the 1.4053 fed high to a 1.3989 post-fed low as USD eased on Warsh's 'tightening is working' line. Since the NY afternoon it has compressed in a 10-pip band just under the 1.4000 psych level through rollover, with RSI(14) near 35 and ATR shrinking.
Support: 1.3989, 1.3965
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4021, 1.4053
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4000 psych level opens the fib 50% retrace at 1.4021
Failure to hold the 1.3989 post-fed low exposes the 1.3965 6-week low
Reclaim of the 1.4053 fed high would negate the range break
US Core PCE / Q3 GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~14h) could materially shift this read
Post-Fed range break lower, tight consolidation under round number.
USD softened on Warsh's 'tightening is working' presser. The 1.4053 spike high reversed, price broke the 1.4030 pre-Fed low and pushed through the 1.4000 round number to a 1.3989 session low. Since NY close the pair has held a 6-pip consolidation under 1.4000, with RSI(14) near 29 and ATR(14) about 7 pips.
Support: 1.39886, 1.3965
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4030, 1.40526
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4000 round number turns the break into a false break. The 38.2% retrace of the presser drop at 1.4013 sits just above.
Reclaim of the 1.4030 pre-Fed low negates the range break. The 1.4053 spike high caps above that.
Break below the 1.3989 session low exposes the 1.3965 6-week low.
Thin Asia session liquidity may keep the range compressed until London open.
US core PCE / Q3 GDP Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read.
22:04 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 31 · price 1.39905
Range break lower post-Fed, tight base above 1.3989.
USDCAD held a 1.4026–1.4064 range through the BoC whipsaw, then broke below the 1.4030 pre-fed low and the 1.4000 round number as Warsh's presser softened the USD. Price printed a post-fed low at 1.3989 and has since compressed in a 1.3989–1.3998 band into the thin Asia open, with RSI(14) near 31 and the 38.2% retracement of the post-Fed drop at 1.4013 untested.
Support: 1.39886, 1.3965
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4013, 1.4030
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4000 round number reopens the fib 38.2 at 1.4013 and the 1.4030 pre-fed low
Failure to hold the 1.3989 post-fed low exposes the 1.3965 6-week low
Lower highs from the BoC spike capping rallies; a break of that line shifts the read
US core PCE and Q3 GDP Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
21:47 UTC
Downtrend after Fed, stalling near lows · RSI 32 · price 1.39917
Range break below 1.4030, tight consolidation under 1.4000.
Warsh's 'tightening is working' presser drove a range break through the 1.4030 pre-fed low and the 1.4000 psych level during NY hours. That Fed drop of about 64 pips ended at a 1.3989 fed low. Price has since compressed in a 10-pip band just under 1.4000 into the thin post-rollover Asia session, with RSI(14) near 32 and the 1.4021 bounce high capping.
Support: 1.39886, 1.3965
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.40212, 1.4030
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.4000 psych re-opens the 1.4021 bounce high and the 1.4030 pre-fed low
Break of the 1.3989 fed low exposes the 1.3965 6wk low
Fed drop fib 38.2–50% zone (1.4013–1.4021) is where a retracement would test the bounce high
US core PCE and Q3 GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~15h) could materially shift this read
21:32 UTC
Downtrend, post-Fed leg stalling · RSI 30 · price 1.39921
Lower highs below 1.4030 range floor, basing near 1.3990.
The Fed presser bar, where Warsh said 'tightening is working', spiked to 1.4053 and then broke the 1.4030 range floor that had held through the BoC whipsaw. Price slid through the 1.4000 round number to a 1.3989 session low at 20:00 UTC. It is now drifting at 1.3992 through the low-liquidity rollover, with RSI(14) near 30 and price capped below the 38.2% fib at 1.4013.
Support: 1.39886, 1.3965
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4013, 1.4030
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 1.4000 round number and the fib 38.2 at 1.4013 would mark the post-Fed leg as corrective
Close back above the 1.4030 range floor negates the range-break read
Failure at the 1.3989 session low exposes the 1.3965 6-week low
US core PCE and Q3 GDP, Thu 12:30 UTC (~15h), could materially shift this read
21:16 UTC
Downtrend after Fed-driven range break · RSI 29 · price 1.39927
The Fed drop off the 1.4053 fed high broke the 1.4000–1.4060 range during late NY hours. Price sliced through the 1.4030 pre-fed low and the 1.4000 psych level to a 1.3989 session low, and now holds just below 1.4000 into the NY close with RSI(14) near 29. Retraces have stalled under the 38.2% of the Fed drop near 1.4013.
Support: 1.39886, 1.3967
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.40302, 1.40526
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.4000 psych and the 1.4030 pre-fed low would neutralise the range break
Failure to hold the 1.3989 session low exposes the 1.3965–1.3970 six-week low
Recovery through the 1.4053 fed high invalidates the downtrend read
US Core PCE/GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~15h) could materially shift this read
Range break lower, tight consolidation below 1.4000.
USD softened on Warsh's 'tightening is working' presser, and the 18:30 UTC bar broke USD/CAD out of the 1.4026–1.4068 day range, falling about 40 pips from the 1.4053 fed high. The selling ran to a 1.3989 session low. Late NY is now compressing just under the 1.4000 round number, with bounces capped there, RSI(14) near 32 and ATR around 11 pips.
Support: 1.39886, 1.3965
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.40212, 1.40526
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4000 round number neutralises the post-Fed break
Reclaim of the 1.4021 bounce high, which sits at the fib 50% retrace of the post-Fed leg, would signal the drop is being retraced toward the 1.4053 fed high
Failure to hold the 1.3989 session low exposes the 1.3965 6-week low
Thin Asia session liquidity ahead; US core PCE/GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~15.5h) could materially shift this read
20:46 UTC
Downtrend after FOMC range break · RSI 27 · price 1.39934
1.4030–1.4065 range broken lower; basing under 1.4000.
The 1.4030–1.4065 range held through Asia, London and the BoC whipsaw, then gave way during the Fed press conference. A drop from the 1.4053 fomc high cleared the 1.4030 boc low and the 1.4000 round number, as the Fed hold narrowed its lead over the BoC. Price is now basing just above the 1.3989 session low late in NY hours, RSI(14) near 27.
Support: 1.39886, 1.3965
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4030, 1.40526
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4000 round number would mark the drop as a false break
Reclaim of the 1.4030 boc low, near the 61.8% fomc drop fib, puts price back inside the prior range
Failure to hold the 1.3989 session low exposes the 1.3965 6-week low
US core PCE and GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~16h) could materially shift this read
20:32 UTC
Downtrend, stalling at lows · RSI 31 · price 1.39971
Post-BoC range broken lower, lower highs since the Fed.
The BoC hike to 2.50% whipsawed price inside a 1.4030–1.4060 band, then the Fed press conference broke the 1.4030 range floor and sent price through the 1.4000 round number to a 1.3989 session low during NY hours. The pair is now holding just under 1.4000 into the NY close, with lower highs from the 1.4053 post-Fed high intact and RSI(14) near 31.
Support: 1.39886, 1.3965
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4030, 1.40526
What it said to watch
A M15 close back above the 1.4000 round number would stall the post-Fed slide
Reclaiming the 1.4030 range floor would negate the range break
A break of the 1.3989 session low exposes the 1.3965 6-week low
A push through the lower-highs line from the 1.4053 post-Fed high would break the descending sequence
Asia session liquidity is thin, and US core PCE/GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~16h) is the next major risk
20:16 UTC
Downtrend, post-Fed leg stalling · RSI 31 · price 1.39966
Broke below the 1.4030–1.4065 range and the 1.4000 round number, lower highs since the 18:30 UTC spike.
The Fed press conference during NY hours broke the 1.4030 pre-Fed low and the 1.4000 round number. The ~64-pip Fed drop from the 1.4053 fed high stalled at a 1.3989 session low, and price is now pressing 1.4000 from below with RSI(14) near 31. The pair is no longer pinned in the 1.4000–1.4050 band the BoC and Fed decisions left it in.
Support: 1.39886, 1.3965
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4030, 1.40526
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4000 round number puts the break in question; the Fed drop fib 38.2% sits near 1.4013
Reclaim of the 1.4030 pre-Fed low returns price to the prior range, with the 1.4053 fed high above
Failure to hold the 1.3989 session low exposes the 1.3965 six-week low
Thu 12:30 UTC US GDP and core PCE could materially shift this read
20:03 UTC
Downtrend, post-Fed leg extending · RSI 26 · price 1.39906
Decision-day range broken lower, lower highs since 18:30 UTC.
USDCAD dropped out of the 1.4030–1.4064 range it held through the BoC and Fed decisions once the Warsh presser began. The post-Fed leg ran from the 1.4053 fed spike high through the 1.4000 round number to a session low at 1.3989, with lower highs on each bounce. RSI(14) sits near 26 late in the NY session, and the 1.3965 six-week low is the next reference below.
Support: 1.3989, 1.3965, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4030, 1.4053
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 1.4000 round number would turn the break into a false break; reclaiming the 1.4030 range floor restores the range read
Failure to hold the 1.3965 six-wk low exposes the 1.3950 wedge base
A move back through the 1.4053 fed spike high negates the post-Fed leg lower
Warsh presser still feeding through; US Q3 GDP and core PCE Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Broke below 1.4030 pre-Fed low and 1.4000 round number; lower highs since Asia high.
The day's 1.4030–1.4065 range held through London and the BoC whipsaw, then gave way once Warsh's press conference started. The pair dropped 58 pips from the 1.4053 presser high to a 1.3995 session low, breaking the pre-Fed low at 1.4030 and the 1.4000 round number. Price is now basing just under 1.4000 late in the NY session, with RSI(14) near 29 and fib 61.8% of the drop sitting at the pre-Fed low.
Support: 1.3995, 1.3965
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4030, 1.4053
What it said to watch
M15 closes back above the 1.4000 round number would mark the break as a false break
Recovery through 1.4030 pre-fed low (fib 61.8%) negates the range-break read
Failure to hold the 1.3995 session low exposes the 1.3965 6-week low
Warsh presser still in progress; December hike guidance could reverse the move
19:32 UTC
Downtrend, extended after FOMC leg · RSI 31 · price 1.40013
Lower highs from 1.4064, range break below 1.4030 to a fresh low.
The BoC whipsaw printed a 1.4064 boc high, and the FOMC statement was rejected at 1.4053. That rejection broke the 1.4030 range floor and ran to a 1.3995 session low through the 1.4000 round number. Late in the NY session, price is holding just above 1.4000 with RSI(14) near 31 and ATR at about 10 pips. The 61.8% fib of the FOMC drop sits on the old range floor.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3995, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.4030, 1.4053, 1.4064
What it said to watch
The Warsh press conference now in progress could materially shift this read
M15 closes below the 1.3995 session low expose the 1.3970 6-week low
A recovery above the 1.4030 range floor and 61.8% fib undoes the range break
The lower highs line from the boc high at 1.4064 to the fomc high at 1.4053 has capped rebounds so far
19:16 UTC
Downtrend, extended into 1.4000 · RSI 31 · price 1.40059
Post-BoC range broken lower, lower low at 1.4004.
The BoC hike whipsawed price between the 1.4064 boc high and a 1.4031 range floor. During the Warsh presser, a spike to the 1.4053 fomc high met rejection and price broke through the range floor. That printed a session low at 1.4004, below the pre-decision low and just above the 1.4000 round number, with RSI(14) near 31 and late-NY bars narrowing.
Support: 1.40039, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4031, 1.40526, 1.40637
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4000 round number extends the range break beyond the session low
Reclaim of the 1.4031 range floor would turn the move into a false break
Rejection at the 1.4053 fomc high keeps the lower-high sequence below the 1.4064 boc high intact
Warsh presser still running; Thu 12:30 UTC US GDP and core PCE could materially shift this read
Lower highs since BoC spike; 1.4030 range floor broken.
The Warsh presser in late NY hours spiked USD/CAD to 1.4053, then broke it through the 1.4030 range floor that had held since the BoC whipsaw off the 1.4064 BoC high, printing a session low at 1.4005. That bar closed on its high after a rejection just above the 1.4000 round number. Price is now pausing under the 38.2% retrace of the presser drop, and the lower-high trendline from the BoC high stays intact.
Support: 1.40045, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4029, 1.40526, 1.40637
What it said to watch
FOMC press conference still in progress could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the 1.4030 range floor turns the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.4005 session low and 1.4000 round number extends the lower-low sequence
A close above the 1.4053 presser high breaks the lower-high trendline
Thu 12:30 UTC US GDP and core PCE are the next scheduled catalyst
1.4030–1.4042 NY range broken lower; lower highs since BoC spike.
Warsh's presser drove USD/CAD through the 1.4030 range floor. That floor had capped the NY lows since the BoC whipsaw, and the pair printed a session low at 1.4013 after a brief spike to 1.4053 was rejected. Price is below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 36 and ATR around 9 pips, and the 1.4000 round number sits just underneath.
Support: 1.4013, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4030, 1.4053
What it said to watch
Recovery back above the 1.4030 range floor, which lines up with the 38.2% of the post-BoC decline, negates the range break
A close below the 1.4013 session low exposes the 1.4000 round number
Remaining Warsh presser headlines can still whipsaw price back toward the 1.4053 spike high
The BoC hike at 13:45 UTC whipsawed USDCAD through the 1.4050 pivot to the 1.4064 BoC high before it reversed, and NY session has since compressed into a 1.4030–1.4045 band. The Fed-hold dip stopped at the post-BoC low, above the 1.4026 session low, and the bounce is now pressing the 1.4045 Fed bar high with RSI(14) neutral near 52.
Support: 1.4030, 1.4026
Resistance: 1.40453, 1.4050, 1.40637
What it said to watch
Warsh presser under way from 18:30 UTC; December guidance could break the 1.4030–1.4045 band
An M15 close above the 1.4050 pivot reopens the 1.4064 BoC high
Failure to hold the post-BoC low and the 1.4026 session low confirms a lower-low toward 1.4000
Lower-high sequence compressing into a 12-pip range above the day low.
The BoC hike whipsawed USD/CAD between 1.4030 and the 1.4064 BoC high. NY session has since printed lower highs along a declining line into a 1.4030–1.4042 range. The Fed decision bar dipped to the 1.4030 range floor and recovered, so the floor is intact, with RSI(14) near 42 and price pinned at EMA20.
Support: 1.4030, 1.4026, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4042, 1.4059, 1.4064
What it said to watch
Warsh press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.4030 range floor exposes the 1.4026 day low and the 1.4000 psych level
Close above the 1.4042 range top and the lower-high line reopens the 1.4059 lower high, then the 1.4064 BoC high
The as-expected BoC hike whipsawed the pair between 1.4030 and 1.4064. Since then NY hours have printed lower highs from the boc high down to the 1.4042 lower high, while the 1.4030 boc low has held four times just above the 1.4026 session low. Price sits under EMA20/50 and well below the 1.4068 Asian high, with ATR near 8 pips and FOMC landing now.
Support: 1.4030, 1.4026, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40419, 1.40637, 1.40682
What it said to watch
Fed decision now and the Warsh press conference at 18:30 UTC could break the compression either way
M15 close below the 1.4030 boc low and 1.4026 session low opens the path to 1.4000 psych
Close above the 1.4042 lower high and the falling trendline invalidates the lower-high sequence
Reclaim of the 1.4064 boc high puts the 1.4068 Asian high back in play
Tight post-BoC range 1.4030–1.4048 below the 1.4064 spike high.
The as-expected BoC hike to 2.50% produced a whipsaw bar from the 1.4064 BoC high to 1.4030, and the high was rejected. Since then the NY session has printed a lower high at 1.4048 and settled into a narrowing 1.4030–1.4048 range ahead of FOMC, with price sitting about two-thirds back into the pre-BoC 1.4026 to 1.4064 BoC swing.
Support: 1.4030, 1.4026, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4048, 1.4064
What it said to watch
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; ATR near 9 pips understates expected event range
An M15 close above the 1.4048 lower high breaks the post-BoC lower-high sequence and puts the 1.4064 BoC high back in view
Failure to hold the 1.4030 post-boc low and the 1.4026 session low exposes 1.4000 psych
Lower highs since BoC spike, flat floor near 1.4030.
London faded the 1.4068 asian high and NY extended to a 1.4026 day low before the as-expected BoC hike at 13:45 UTC produced a two-way boc spike to 1.4064 that was rejected. Since then a chain of lower highs has compressed price into a 1.4030 range floor / 1.4040 range cap box below EMA20/50, RSI(14) near 45, with the FOMC decision under an hour away.
Support: 1.4030, 1.4026, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4040, 1.40637, 1.40682
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC can expand the range well beyond the ~9-pip ATR
M15 close below the 1.4026 day low breaks the range floor and exposes 1.4000 psych
M15 close above the 1.4040 range cap and the lower highs trendline reopens the 1.4064 boc spike and 1.4068 asian high
17:03 UTC
Post-BoC lower highs, compressing into day lows · RSI 41 · price 1.4034
Lower highs from the 1.4064 spike above flat 1.4030 support.
The in-line BoC hike produced a two-way spike to 1.4064 that was rejected. The NY session has since printed lower highs at 1.4059 and the 1.4048 minor high, while the post-BoC low at 1.4030 held three times just above the 1.4026 day low. Price is compressing in a roughly 30-pip range below both EMAs, with the Asian high at 1.4068 well overhead ahead of FOMC.
Support: 1.4030, 1.4026, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4048, 1.4064, 1.4068
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.4026 day low opens the path to 1.4000 psych
M15 close above the 1.4048 minor high breaks the post-BoC lower-high sequence
Return above the 1.4064 BoC spike puts the 1.4068 Asian high back in play
Lower highs since BoC spike against flat base at 1.4030.
The BoC's in-line hike to 2.50% at 13:45 UTC produced a two-way spike between the 1.4030 BoC low and the 1.4064 BoC high. NY session has since printed lower highs at 1.4059, 1.4048 and 1.4040 against a flat 1.4030 base. Price is below the 1.4041 Asian low and both EMAs, compressing above the 1.4026 session low ahead of the Fed.
Support: 1.4030, 1.4026
Resistance: 1.4041, 1.4048, 1.4064
What it said to watch
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.4026 session low breaks the flat base
Close back above the 1.4041 Asian low and the 1.4048 lower high ends the lower-high sequence
Retest of the 1.4064 BoC high only in play if the 1.4048 lower high gives way
Lower highs since BoC spike, holding above 1.4026 day low; back below the Asian range.
The in-line BoC hike to 2.50% whipsawed USD/CAD between 1.4030 and 1.4064, and the spike met rejection. A run of lower highs since then, capped at the 1.4059 post-BoC high, has taken price back below the 1.4041 Asian low as NY trades into the FOMC. Demand has held the 1.4026 day low and the 1.4030 NY low twice, leaving tight consolidation above them with RSI(14) near 43 and price under both EMAs.
Support: 1.4030, 1.4026, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4041, 1.4059, 1.4068
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4026 day low exposes the 1.4000 round number
A close back above the post-BoC lower-high trendline and the 1.4041 Asian low breaks the lower-high sequence, with the 1.4059 post-BoC high next
The 1.4068 session high remains the top of the day's range
The Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since BoC spike; base holding at 1.4030 above 1.4026 session low.
The BoC's in-line hike to 2.50% at 13:45 UTC printed a two-way 34-pip bar between 1.4030 and 1.4064 (boc high). NY hours have since stacked lower highs, 1.4059, then 1.4048 (lower high), then 1.4039, while the post-boc low at 1.4030 holds above the 1.4026 session low. RSI(14) sits near 46 and price is under both EMAs, with FOMC at 18:00 UTC still ahead.
Support: 1.4030, 1.4026
Resistance: 1.40475, 1.40637
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.4026 session low breaks the post-boc low base and exposes the 1.4000 round number
M15 close above the 1.4048 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence and reopens the 1.4064 boc high
Post-BoC range 1.4026–1.4064, lower highs pressing the lows.
Asian high at 1.4068 faded through London into a 1.4026 session low. The in-line BoC hike to 2.50% then produced a two-way spike between the 1.4064 boc spike high and the 1.4030 boc low, and the next lower high at 1.4059 was rejected. Price is now back on the boc low with RSI(14) neutral near 46, two hours before FOMC.
Support: 1.4030, 1.4026, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4059, 1.4064, 1.4068
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4026 session low breaks the post-BoC range and puts the 1.4000 round number in play
Close above the 1.4059 lower high negates the lower-highs trendline and reopens the 1.4064 boc spike and 1.4068 asian high
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could expand ranges well beyond the ~10-pip ATR
The Asian session high at 1.4068 faded through London into a 1.4026 day low. The in-line BoC hike to 2.50% then whipsawed price between 1.4030 and 1.4064. Since the decision, highs have stepped lower to the 1.4048 lower high, and price sits at 1.4033 near the 1.4030 post-BoC low with RSI(14) in the mid-40s.
Support: 1.4030, 1.4026, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4048, 1.4064, 1.4068
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4026 day low breaks the post-BoC range and exposes the 1.4000 round number
Reclaim of the 1.4048 lower high puts the 1.4064 BoC high and 1.4068 Asian high back in focus
Repeated holds at the 1.4030 post-BoC low keep the post-BoC fib range intact
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
15:32 UTC
Two-way chop, lower high after BoC spike · RSI 50 · price 1.40402
Inside 1.4026–1.4068 day range, below Asian low.
The in-line BoC hike to 2.50% whipsawed the pair 1.4030–1.4064. The BoC high was rejected and a lower high at 1.4059 followed. Mid-NY session, price is back below the Asian low near 1.4040 and sits around the 61.8% retrace of the 1.4026–1.4064 swing, with the 15:00 UTC swing low at 1.4037 the nearest floor.
Support: 1.4037, 1.4026, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4059, 1.4064, 1.4068
What it said to watch
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.4037 swing low exposes the 1.4026 day low, with 1.4000 round number beneath
Reclaim of the 1.4059 lower high and 1.4064 BoC high breaks the lower-high line and brings the 1.4068 Asian high into view
15:17 UTC
Two-way chop after BoC, lower highs since Asia · RSI 50 · price 1.40425
Higher lows off 1.4026 session low, capped below 1.4064–1.4068.
London broke the Asian low near 1.4041 and printed a session low at 1.4026. The in-line BoC hike then whipsawed price between the 1.4064 BoC high and the 1.4030 BoC low. Early NY shows higher lows (1.4026, 1.4030, 1.4037), with price between the 61.8% and 50% fib of the rebound and supply capping below the 1.4068 Asian high.
Support: 1.4037, 1.4030, 1.4026
Resistance: 1.4045, 1.4064, 1.4068
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.4037 higher low breaks the rising-low sequence; failure at the 1.4026 session low extends the London leg
Close above the 1.4064 BoC high and 1.4068 Asian high reclaims the Asian range top
Hold above the 50% fib at 1.4045 keeps the post-BoC rebound structure intact
FOMC 18:00 UTC and Warsh press conference 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
V-recovery from 1.4026 London low, higher lows since BoC bar, capped below Asian high.
London sold off from the Asian range to a 1.4026 London low before NY reversed it. The in-line BoC hike to 2.50% swept both sides from the 1.4030 BoC low to the 1.4064 BoC high, and higher lows have formed since. Price now sits at 1.4050, at the EMA50, in the London-NY overlap; RSI(14) is neutral near 55 and the 1.4068 Asian high still caps.
Support: 1.4049, 1.4030, 1.4026
Resistance: 1.4064, 1.4068
What it said to watch
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.4068 Asian high clears the BoC high and breaks the range top
Break of the higher-low line near 1.4049 reopens the 1.4030 BoC low and 1.4026 London low
14:47 UTC
Intraday range, recovering from London low · RSI 60 · price 1.40581
False break of Asian low, BoC spike, rebound into day highs.
London broke the Asian range low near 1.4041 to a 1.4026 session low, then reversed back inside, a false break. The in-line BoC hike to 2.50% printed a two-way 1.4030 boc low to 1.4064 boc high spike, and price has since rebuilt higher lows into the 1.4064–1.4068 asian high zone with RSI(14) near 60.
Support: 1.4050, 1.4030, 1.4026
Resistance: 1.4064, 1.4068
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4068 asian high breaks the day's range and the 1.4064 boc high cap
Loss of the 1.4050 round number reopens the 1.4030 boc low and 1.4026 session low
A break of the recovery support trendline negates the higher-low sequence since the session low
Macklem presser now underway and Fed decision at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Post-BoC two-way spike inside the 1.4026–1.4068 day range.
The BoC's in-line 25bp hike at 13:45 UTC printed a two-way sweep from the 1.4064 BoC high to the 1.4030 BoC low. Price has since held a 1.4038 post-BoC low and recovered to 1.4054, about 67% of the London-session drop from the 1.4068 Asian high to the 1.4026 day low. It sits above EMA20, roughly flat at EMA50, with RSI(14) neutral at 53 as Macklem's presser begins.
Support: 1.4038, 1.4030, 1.4026
Resistance: 1.4064, 1.4068
What it said to watch
Macklem presser at 14:30 GMT (now) could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.4064 BoC high and 1.4068 Asian high breaks the day range top
Failure to hold the 1.4038 post-BoC low reopens the 1.4030 BoC low and 1.4026 day low
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC are the next major risk
London faded from the 1.4068 Asian high into a 1.4026 session low. Price rebounded into the 13:45 UTC BoC decision, then the decision bar whipsawed between a 1.4030 boc low and a 1.4064 boc high, with a rejection just under the Asian high. Price now sits at the 50% retrace near 1.4045, with ATR(14) roughly doubled to about 8.5 pips and RSI(14) neutral at 46.
Support: 1.4030, 1.4026
Resistance: 1.4064, 1.4068
What it said to watch
Macklem press conference at 14:30 UTC could resolve the 1.4030 boc low / 1.4064 boc high spike range
M15 close above the 1.4068 asian high breaks the day's lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.4026 session low confirms a range break lower
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh press conference at 18:30 UTC add a second event risk later in NY hours
14:03 UTC
Intraday down from session high, choppy after BoC · RSI 42 · price 1.40394
Lower highs since Asia; BoC spike rejected, price back at Asian low.
The BoC decision bar at 13:45 UTC swung 34 pips, between a boc high at 1.4064 just under the 1.4068 session high and a boc low at 1.4030. It closed near 1.4040, unwinding most of the pre-decision rally from the 1.4026 session low. London had already broken below the 1.4041 Asian low, and early NY is now pinned at that level, with RSI(14) near 42 and ATR elevated.
Support: 1.4030, 1.4026, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4041, 1.4064, 1.4068
What it said to watch
Macklem press conference at 14:30 UTC could extend or reverse the BoC spike
Failure to hold the 1.4030 boc low and 1.4026 session low exposes the 1.4000 round number
Sustained trade back above the 1.4041 asian low, then 1.4064, reopens the session high at 1.4068
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
13:47 UTC
V-shaped rebound after London selloff, whipsaw on BoC · RSI 52 · price 1.40516
London lower-high sequence reversed from 1.4026; BoC decision bar spans 1.4030–1.4064.
London sold the pair from the 1.4068 Asian high to a 1.4026 session low early in NY hours, but the break below the 1.4041 Asian low turned into a false break and a sharp rebound into the BoC. The 13:45 UTC decision bar swung 34 pips (1.4030–1.4064), with a rejection at the BoC high, and price sits near the 61.8% retracement of the selloff, hugging EMA50.
Support: 1.4041, 1.4026
Resistance: 1.4064, 1.4068
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4064 BoC high and 1.4068 Asian high takes out the 1.4066/67 resistance zone
Failure to hold 1.4041 Asian low re-exposes the 1.4026 session low
Macklem press conference at 14:30 UTC and FOMC at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
ATR jumping toward 9 pips on the decision bar points to wider intraday swings
13:32 UTC
V-shaped rebound inside a 1.4026–1.4068 session range · RSI 58 · price 1.40571
Failed break below Asian low, recovered to the falling-highs line.
London sold through the 1.4041 asian low to a 1.4026 session low. Around the NY open the pair recovered about 30 pips, retaking EMA20 and the 61.8% fib near the 1.4051 swing low. Price is now pressing the falling-highs line drawn off the 1.4068 asia high ahead of the BoC.
Support: 1.4051, 1.4041, 1.4026
Resistance: 1.4063, 1.4068
What it said to watch
BoC decision at 13:45 UTC and Macklem at 14:30 UTC could materially shift this read; ATR near 6 pips will likely expand
M15 close above the 1.4063 london high and the 1.4068 asia high breaks the falling-highs line
Slip back below the 1.4051 swing low reopens the 1.4041 asian low, then the 1.4026 session low
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC is a second volatility event later in the NY session
London lower highs; false break of Asian low reclaimed.
London ground lower from the 1.4068 Asian high in a run of lower highs, then a false break of the 1.4041 Asian low put in a 1.4026 session low in the first hour of NY. The rebound has stalled at the 61.8% fib retrace of the London drop near 1.4048, with RSI(14) back to 48, as USD holds firm into the BoC.
Support: 1.4041, 1.4026
Resistance: 1.4048, 1.4061, 1.4068
What it said to watch
BoC decision at 13:45 UTC (~80% hike priced) and Macklem's 14:30 UTC press conference could override this structure within the next few bars
M15 close above the lower highs trendline near 1.4057 and the 1.4061 lower high breaks the London sequence, with the 1.4068 Asian high next
Rejection at the 61.8% fib followed by a close back below the 1.4041 Asian low reopens the 1.4026 session low
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC is a second event risk later in the NY session
Asian range broken lower, lower highs since London.
London faded from the asian high at 1.4068 and broke the asian low at 1.4041 into the NY open, putting in a session low at 1.4026 just above the prior low at 1.4022. The bounce reached the 38.2% retrace of that leg and stalled at the broken asian low with 45 minutes left before the BoC decision, keeping price below both EMAs.
Support: 1.4026, 1.4022, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4041, 1.4051, 1.4068
What it said to watch
BoC decision at 13:45 UTC and Macklem's 14:30 UTC presser could materially shift this read. A hold would reprice CAD sharply.
An M15 close above the asian low at 1.4041 returns price to the Asian range, with the london low at 1.4051 next.
Failure to hold the session low at 1.4026 exposes the prior low at 1.4022 and the 1.4000 round number.
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC is a second volatility event in this session.
12:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, first bounce off lows · RSI 36 · price 1.40355
Asian range broken lower in London; lower highs from 1.4068, session low 1.4026.
CAD caught a bid in late London ahead of the BoC decision, pushing USDCAD through the 1.4041 asian low and down to a 1.4026 session low, about 42 pips off the 1.4068 asian high. The first bounce has stalled at 1.4035, below both EMAs and under the 1.4041 asian low, which lines up with the 38.2% fib of the drop.
Support: 1.4026, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4041, 1.4063, 1.4068
What it said to watch
BoC decision at 13:45 UTC and presser at 14:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a hold would be the largest CAD-negative surprise
An M15 close back above the 1.4041 asian low weakens the range-break read and brings the 1.4063 london high into view
Failure to hold the 1.4026 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.4000 round number
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC adds a second volatility event after the BoC
12:32 UTC
Downtrend, stretched into the session low · RSI 27 · price 1.40305
Lower highs since the Asian high; Asian range broken to the downside in late London.
After capping at the 1.4068 Asian high, USD/CAD rolled over from 1.4061 in late London. It cut through the 1.4051 London low and the 1.4041 Asian low to a 1.4026 session low, a pre-BoC slide that runs against the firm USD tone, with RSI(14) near 27. Price is basing just above yesterday's 1.4020 prior low. ATR(14) is about 5 pips.
Support: 1.4026, 1.4020
Resistance: 1.4041, 1.4051, 1.4068
What it said to watch
BoC decision and MPR at 13:45 UTC, presser 14:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC is a second event risk later in the NY session
M15 close back above the 1.4041 asian low (near the 50% fib) would mark the range break as a false break
Acceptance below the 1.4020 prior low extends the lower-high sequence
Recovery above the 1.4051 london low would neutralise the lower-highs trendline
12:17 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after a sharp leg lower · RSI 22 · price 1.40273
Asian range low broken late London; lower highs from 1.4068, fresh session low at 1.4027.
USD/CAD slid 33 pips from the 1.4061 lower high, cutting through the 1.4051 London low and the 1.4041 Asian low into 1.4027 ahead of the NY open. CAD is firming into today's BoC decision. RSI(14) near 22 shows the sell-off is stretched as price closes in on yesterday's 1.4022 swing low.
Support: 1.4022, 1.4014, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4041, 1.4051, 1.4061
What it said to watch
BoC decision 13:45 UTC and 14:30 UTC presser could materially shift this read. A hold would unwind hike pricing against CAD.
Recovery back above the 1.4041 Asian low negates the range break. The 1.4051 London low is next overhead.
Failure to hold the 1.4022 swing low exposes the 1.4014 window low and the 1.4000 round number.
A close above the 1.4061 lower high breaks the lower highs sequence.
Fed decision 18:00 UTC adds a second volatility event later today.
Lower highs from Asian high; Asian range low broken late London.
Lower highs from the 1.4068 Asian high (1.4063, then 1.4061) gave way to a late-London break of the 1.4041 Asian low ahead of the BoC decision, with price now testing the 61.8% retracement of the 1.4014–1.4068 rally. RSI(14) near 24 is stretched into the NY open, and the 1.4025 swing low is the next reference.
Support: 1.4025, 1.4014
Resistance: 1.4041, 1.4061, 1.4068
What it said to watch
BoC decision at 13:45 UTC and Macklem presser at 14:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the 1.4041 Asian low turns the range break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.4025 swing low exposes the 1.4014 prior low
A move through the 1.4061 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC is a second volatility event later in the session
Lower highs through London, Asian range low broken.
London capped USDCAD with lower highs under the 1.4068 Asian high, then broke the 1.4051 London low and the 1.4041 Asian low late in the session. The pair is now at 1.4037, giving back the Asian gains ahead of today's BoC decision. RSI(14) at 26 shows a stretched leg into Tuesday's NY tue pivot near 1.4031.
Support: 1.4031, 1.4014, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4041, 1.4051, 1.4068
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4041 asian low would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 1.4031 tue pivot extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.4014 24h low and the 1.4000 round number
Reclaiming the 1.4051 london low and the lower highs trendline undoes the London downtrend read
BoC decision at 13:45 UTC and presser at 14:30 UTC could reset the intraday structure
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC is a second volatility event that could reshape this read
11:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, momentum building · RSI 27 · price 1.40413
Lower highs off the Asian high; London range low broken, Asian low under test.
The 1.4068 Asian high was rejected near the EMA confluence the CAD digest flags. London then printed a run of lower highs and broke its 1.4051 low, and price is pressing the 1.4041 Asian low with RSI(14) near 27 as the USD's pre-FOMC rally stalls. Pair is pinned at the session low with the BoC decision about two hours out.
Support: 1.40408, 1.40142, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40511, 1.40635, 1.40682
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4041 asian low opens the path to the 1.4014 prior low and the 1.4000 psych mark
Recovery above the 1.4051 london low and the lower-highs line from the 1.4064 london high negates the breakdown read
BoC decision at 13:45 UTC (presser 14:30 UTC): a hold is the larger surprise and could send price back through the 1.4068 asian high
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
11:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend since London open · RSI 39 · price 1.4049
Lower highs and lower lows off the Asian high, inside the Asian range.
Rejection at the 1.4068 Asian high gave way to a London-session sell-off, with a lower high at 1.4061 (swing high), another at 1.4058 and a fresh session low at 1.4047. The pair now sits in the lower half of the Asian range below both EMAs as the USD rally stalls into the BoC and FOMC.
Support: 1.4047, 1.4041
Resistance: 1.4058, 1.4061, 1.4068
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4061 swing high breaks the lower-high chain and the London trendline
Failure to hold the 1.4041 Asian low takes price out of the Asian range to the downside
BoC decision at 13:45 UTC: a hold against ~85% hike pricing could reverse the London downtrend sharply
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and the 18:30 presser could materially shift this read later in NY hours
11:02 UTC
Intraday downtrend from the Asian high, momentum soft · RSI 42 · price 1.40521
London lower highs and lower lows inside the Asian range; price testing the London low.
London has faded the 1.4068 Asian high in a run of lower highs. The 10:00 UTC bounce was rejected at 1.4061, and price is back on the 1.4051 London low, which is also the 61.8% retrace of the Asian leg. RSI(14) sits near 42 and ATR is 4.4 pips, so the range is compressed ahead of BoC at 13:45 UTC and FOMC at 18:00 UTC.
Support: 1.4051, 1.4041
Resistance: 1.4061, 1.4068
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4051 london low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.4041 asian low
Recovery above the 1.4061 lower high breaks the London lower-highs trendline
BoC decision at 13:45 UTC (hike ~85% priced): a hold is the larger surprise and could take out the 1.4068 asian high
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and the 18:30 UTC press conference could reset the intraday structure
10:47 UTC
Sideways, Asia gains fading · RSI 47 · price 1.40579
London lower highs into a flat 1.4051–1.4064 range.
Asia lifted USDCAD from the 1.4041 asia low to a 1.4068 asia high. Since then London has printed a chain of lower highs, the latest at 1.4061, while the 1.4051 london low holds on the 61.8% of the Asia leg. Price is pinned at flat EMAs with RSI near 47, and the pair is marking time ahead of the BoC.
Support: 1.4051, 1.4041
Resistance: 1.4061, 1.4068
What it said to watch
M15 close above the lower-highs line near 1.4061 breaks the London sequence and reopens the 1.4068 asia high
Failure to hold the 1.4051 london low exposes the 1.4041 asia low
BoC decision at 13:45 UTC (25bp hike mostly priced; a hold is the CAD-negative surprise) could materially shift this read
FOMC at 18:00 UTC adds a second volatility event that can override intraday structure
10:32 UTC
Pullback from Asian high, lower highs · RSI 42 · price 1.40562
Lower highs and lower lows through London, inside the Asian range.
London has printed lower highs off the 1.4068 Asian high, with the 1.4051 London low holding near the 61.8% retracement of the Asia rally. Price sits below both EMAs, RSI(14) at 42. Firm USD and softer CAD lifted the pair overnight, but pre-BoC trade has turned two-way and is compressing inside the Asian range.
Support: 1.4051, 1.4041
Resistance: 1.4061, 1.4068
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4061 lower high breaks the London lower-high sequence and puts the 1.4068 Asian high back in play
Failure to hold the 1.4051 London low exposes the 1.4041 Asian low
BoC decision at 13:45 UTC and Macklem presser at 14:30 UTC could materially shift this read. FOMC at 18:00 UTC follows
10:17 UTC
Range, mild downside drift through London · RSI 46 · price 1.40585
Lower highs off the Asian high, contained within 1.4051–1.4068.
Mid-London, USDCAD has eased off the 1.4068 Asian high in a run of lower highs. It printed a 1.4051 London low before bouncing back to sit on the EMA20 near 1.4058. With a firm USD into FOMC and a largely priced BoC hike, the pair is compressing in a tight range ahead of the 13:45 UTC decision.
Support: 1.4051, 1.4041
Resistance: 1.4064, 1.4068
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4051 london low extends the lower-high sequence toward the 1.4041 asian low
Close above the lower-highs trendline and the 1.4064 london high reopens the 1.4068 asian high
BoC at 13:45 UTC: a hold against the ~85-90% priced hike could break the range sharply; FOMC at 18:00 UTC follows
10:03 UTC
Uptrend, pausing below the Asian high · RSI 49 · price 1.40608
London trading inside the Asian range, slight lower highs, 61.8% retrace held.
Mid-London, price is still inside the Asian range of 1.4041–1.4068. The London pullback found buyers at the 1.4051 london low, right on the 61.8% fib of the Asian leg, and price is back near 1.4061 with RSI(14) flat around 49. USD/CAD is holding a fresh weekly high on a firm USD ahead of BoC and FOMC.
Support: 1.4051, 1.4041
Resistance: 1.4064, 1.4068
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4064 london high and 1.4068 asian high resumes the higher-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.4051 london low and rising support exposes the 1.4041 asian low
BoC decision 13:45 UTC: a hold against the ~85-90% priced hike could break the Asian range sharply
FOMC 18:00 UTC and press conference 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
09:47 UTC
Up leg stalled, minor lower highs in London · RSI 45 · price 1.40564
Inside 1.4041–1.4068 Asian range, London lower highs.
USDCAD extended yesterday's climb from 1.4009 on the firm USD, but London has faded from the 1.4068 asian high in a run of lower highs. The 1.4051 london low sits on the 61.8% retracement of the Asian leg. RSI(14) is near 45 and ATR is about 4 pips, so the range is compressed ahead of the BoC and FOMC.
Support: 1.40511, 1.40408
Resistance: 1.40643, 1.40682
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4051 london low exposes the 1.4041 asian low
Close above the London lower-highs trendline and the 1.4064 london high reopens the 1.4068 asian high
BoC decision 13:45 UTC: a hold against the ~85-90% priced hike could break the Asian range sharply
FOMC 18:00 UTC and the 18:30 UTC press conference could materially shift this read
09:32 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since the Asian high · RSI 36 · price 1.40521
London fading the Asian leg; 1.4055 floor broken, testing 61.8% retrace.
Mid-London, USDCAD has faded the 1.4068 asian high in a chain of lower highs. The 09:15 bar broke the 1.4055 london floor, putting price on the fib 61.8 retrace of the Asian leg at 1.4051, with RSI(14) near 36 and USD firmness into the Fed and BoC keeping dips shallow so far.
Support: 1.4051, 1.4041, 1.4009
Resistance: 1.4056, 1.4064, 1.4068
What it said to watch
BoC decision at 13:45 UTC and Macklem presser at 14:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a hold vs ~20bp priced is the outsized-move scenario
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC add a second event risk later in NY hours
Close back above the 1.4056 london floor and the lower-high trendline near 1.4063 negates the pullback read
Failure to hold the 1.4041 asian low erases the Asian leg and exposes the 1.4009 prior low
Lower highs from the 1.4068 Asian high, pressing the London low.
The Asian session lifted from the 1.4041 Asian low to a 1.4068 session high, extending the USD-led run to weekly highs. London has since capped each bounce lower, with the London high at 1.4064 and price now testing the 1.4055 London low near the 50% retrace of the Asian leg. Ranges are compressing at about 4 pips per bar ahead of the BoC decision.
Support: 1.4055, 1.4051, 1.4041
Resistance: 1.4064, 1.4068
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4055 London low exposes the 61.8% fib at 1.4051, then the 1.4041 Asian low
Close above the lower-high trendline and the 1.4064 London high reopens the 1.4068 session high
BoC decision at 13:45 UTC: a hold vs the ~85-90% priced hike could break the Asian range sharply
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could reset this read later in NY hours
London lower highs inside the Asia range, holding mid-retrace.
Asia extended yesterday's USD-led NY climb from the 1.4041 asia low to a fresh weekly top at the 1.4068 asia high. London has since printed lower highs and is holding the 1.4055 london low near the 50% of the asia leg fib, with RSI(14) at 42 and ATR near 4 pips as the pair compresses ahead of the BoC.
Support: 1.40555, 1.40408
Resistance: 1.40635, 1.40682
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4068 asia high resumes the higher-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.4055 london low and the 50% asia leg fib exposes the 1.4041 asia low
Close above the 1.4064 london high breaks the lower highs trendline
BoC decision at 13:45 UTC: a hold against the priced hike could reprice the pair sharply
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh at 18:30 UTC could override the BoC reaction
Lower highs since the Asian high, flat base near 1.4056.
USD/CAD peaked at the 1.4068 asian high, a one-week high, on broad USD firmness into FOMC. London has faded the move along a lower-highs line, capped at the 1.4064 london high. Price now sits on a flat 1.4056 london low, between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the Asia leg, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 1.40556, 1.40536, 1.40408
Resistance: 1.40635, 1.40682
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4056 london low exposes the 1.4054 prior high (Oct 27 NY high), then the 1.4041 asian low
Close above the lower-highs line and the 1.4064 london high reopens the 1.4068 asian high
Asia-leg 50% fib at 1.4055 coincides with the base; holding there keeps the pullback shallow
BoC decision at 13:45 UTC (hike ~85% priced; a hold is the CAD-negative surprise) is likely to reset the intraday range
FOMC at 18:00 UTC adds a second volatility event later in the NY session
08:32 UTC
Pullback within intraday uptrend · RSI 43 · price 1.40575
Lower highs below Asia high, London holding a tight 1.4056-1.4064 band.
USDCAD ran from the 1.4041 Asia low to a one-week high at the 1.4068 Asia high on broad USD firmness. Early London has faded that leg into a tight band, with lower highs from 1.4068 capping at the 1.4064 London high and the 1.4056 London low holding near the 38.2% retrace of the Asia leg. Price is under EMA20 and sitting on EMA50, ahead of the BoC decision.
Support: 1.40557, 1.40536, 1.40408
Resistance: 1.40635, 1.40682
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4056 London low exposes the 1.4054 prior high (prior-day NY high) and the 50% retrace of the Asia leg
Close above the lower-highs line and the 1.4064 London high reopens the 1.4068 Asia high
Loss of 1.4054 puts the 1.4041 Asia low back in view
BoC decision and MPR at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read, with FOMC at 18:00 UTC as a second shock
08:17 UTC
Uptrend, pausing below asian high · RSI 50 · price 1.40631
London trading a tight range inside the Asian range, mild lower highs off 1.4068.
USDCAD climbed from the 1.4041 asian low to a 1.4068 asian high on firm USD into FOMC. The pair has since eased, and London has held a 1.4056–1.4063 range, with the dip stalling between the 38.2% and 50% retrace. The current bar is pressing the london high, with RSI(14) flat near 50 and ATR around 4 pips ahead of the BoC.
Support: 1.40557, 1.40408
Resistance: 1.40634, 1.40682
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4068 asian high resumes the Asian-session up-leg
Break below the 1.4056 london low and 50% retrace exposes the 1.4041 asian low
BoC decision 13:45 UTC: a hike is ~85% priced, so a hold would be the larger shock to this range
Fed decision 18:00 UTC and Powell at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs off the Asian high, holding above the prior NY high.
USDCAD rallied from the 1.4041 asian low to a one-week high at the 1.4068 asian high on broad USD firmness, then faded into London open on a chain of lower highs. The 1.4056 pullback low sits between the 38.2% and 50% fib of that leg, just above the 1.4054 prior high from the NY session. Price is capped near ema20, RSI(14) neutral at 45 and ATR only ~3.7 pips ahead of BoC and FOMC.
Support: 1.40557, 1.40536, 1.40408
Resistance: 1.40615, 1.40682
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4054 prior high and 1.4056 pullback low exposes the 1.4041 asian low
Close above the lower-high trendline and ema20 near 1.4062 reopens the 1.4068 asian high
BoC decision and MPR at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
FOMC at 18:00 UTC with Powell at 18:30 UTC is a second volatility event
07:47 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back into London open · RSI 40 · price 1.40576
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.4068 session high; prior swing structure intact above 1.4041.
USD/CAD extended its rally into a one-week high at the 1.4068 session high in Asia as the dollar firmed into FOMC. The pair has since printed a chain of lower highs into London open and sits at the 38.2% fib of the Asian leg (1.4041 asian low to 1.4068). The 1.4054 prior high from yesterday's NY session, which also marks the 50% fib, is the next support, with RSI(14) near 40 and price below EMA20.
Support: 1.4054, 1.4050, 1.4041
Resistance: 1.4064, 1.4068
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4054 prior high, with the 1.4050 round number under it, extends the pullback toward the 1.4041 asian low
Close above the lower-highs trendline and the 1.4064 lower high reopens the 1.4068 session high
BoC decision at 13:45 UTC: a hold against ~85% hike pricing could materially shift this read
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and Powell at 18:30 UTC add a second volatility event to the NY session
07:32 UTC
Asia uptrend stalling, early London pullback · RSI 41 · price 1.40586
Lower highs off the Asia high, testing 38.2% of the Asia rally.
Asia ran from the 00:00 UTC asia low at 1.4041 to the 1.4068 asia high, clearing yesterday's NY high at 1.4054 on the firm-USD, soft-CAD backdrop. Early London is fading the move with lower highs and a london low at 1.4056. Price sits on the 38.2% retracement of the Asia rally and on EMA50, below EMA20, with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 1.40564, 1.40536, 1.40408
Resistance: 1.40643, 1.40682
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.4056 london low extends the lower-high sequence toward the 1.4054 ny high
A recovery above the 1.4064 lower high and its trendline re-opens the 1.4068 asia high
Failure at the ny high exposes the 50–61.8% zone of the Asia rally (1.4055–1.4051) ahead of the asia low
BoC decision at 13:45 UTC and FOMC at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
07:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pausing below Asian high · RSI 47 · price 1.40614
Lower highs off the 1.4068 Asian high; higher lows intact above the prior NY high.
USD/CAD climbed from the 1.4041 asian low to the 1.4068 asian high on firm pre-FOMC USD demand and BoC repositioning, holding above yesterday's NY-session prior high at 1.4054. Since 04:15 UTC price has printed lower highs into the London open. The 07:00 bar wicked to a 1.4056 swing low near the 38.2% fib, saw rejection there and closed back at 1.4061; RSI(14) is neutral near 47.
Support: 1.40564, 1.40536, 1.40408
Resistance: 1.40643, 1.40682
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.4056 swing low and the 1.4054 prior high turns the Asian advance into a deeper retracement toward the 1.4041 asian low
A close above the 1.4064 lower high breaks the pullback; a clean move through the 1.4068 asian high extends the session range
BoC decision at 13:45 UTC (hike ~85% priced) could materially shift this read; a hold is the larger CAD-negative surprise
FOMC at 18:00 UTC is a second volatility event later in the day
07:02 UTC
Uptrend stalling, lower highs since Asia peak · RSI 45 · price 1.40591
Asian range 1.4041–1.4068; London open pressing the 1.4059 shelf.
USDCAD climbed from the 1.4041 asian low to a one-week asian high at 1.4068 on the firm USD, but has since printed lower highs and is testing the 1.4059 asia shelf at London open. That shelf sits near the 38.2% retrace of the Asian leg. RSI(14) at 45 and ATR near 3 pips point to a compressed range ahead of the BoC.
Support: 1.4059, 1.4054, 1.4041
Resistance: 1.4064, 1.4068
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.4059 asia shelf exposes the 1.4054 ny high and the 50% retrace of the Asian leg
Reclaim of the 1.4064 lower high reopens the 1.4068 asian high
Break of the 1.4041 asian low would erase the overnight leg
BoC decision at 13:45 UTC (~85% hike priced); a hold would be the larger CAD-negative surprise
FOMC at 18:00 UTC adds a second volatility event later in the day
06:47 UTC
Uptrend, pausing below Asian high · RSI 54 · price 1.40638
Higher lows since the midnight dip; tight 1.4059–1.4068 band into London.
Asia opened with a dip to the 1.4041 Asian low that was bought quickly. Firm USD into FOMC then carried price through Tuesday's NY prior high to a 1.4068 Asian high. Price has since compressed between the 1.4059 intraday low and the Asian high ahead of London, holding the rising trendline and staying above the 38.2% fib of the overnight leg.
Support: 1.40593, 1.40536, 1.40408
Resistance: 1.40682
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4068 Asian high resumes the higher-high chain
Loss of the 1.4059 intraday low and the rising trendline opens a retest of the 1.4054 prior high
BoC decision at 13:45 UTC (hike ~85% priced) could materially shift this read; FOMC at 18:00 UTC follows
06:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling below Asian high · RSI 51 · price 1.40612
Asia reversal above prior-day high, now compressing in a tight 1.4059–1.4068 band.
Asia dipped to an asian low of 1.4041 just after the daily open, then reversed through yesterday's 1.4054 prior high to 1.4068 as the firm USD bid carried into pre-BoC/FOMC positioning. Since then price has compressed into a narrow 1.4059–1.4068 band ahead of the London open. RSI(14) is neutral near 51, and price sits just under EMA20.
Support: 1.4059, 1.4054, 1.4041
Resistance: 1.4068
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4068 asian high extends the Asia leg into London
Loss of the 1.4059 band low puts the 1.4054 prior high and 50% fib retest in play
Failure back below the 1.4041 asian low unwinds the Asia breakout
BoC decision at 13:45 UTC (hike ~85% priced) could materially shift this read; FOMC follows at 18:00 UTC
06:03 UTC
Uptrend, compressing near session high · RSI 59 · price 1.40656
Asia session HH/HL chain off 1.4041, tight 1.4063–1.4068 band above the broken NY high.
USDCAD rallied through yesterday's NY high at 1.4054 during the Asia session, lifted by a firm USD into FOMC and pre-BoC positioning. It has since compressed in a 1.4063–1.4068 band under the session high, with the intraday low at 1.4063 holding twice. RSI(14) is neutral near 59 and ATR(14) is under 3 pips ahead of the London open.
Support: 1.4063, 1.40536, 1.40408
Resistance: 1.40682, 1.4070
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4063 intraday low breaks the Asia higher-low chain and the rising support line
A close above the 1.4068 session high and the 1.4070 round number extends the Asia uptrend
A pullback to the 1.4054 NY high, near the 50% of the Asia rally fib, would be the first retest of the breakout
Loss of the 1.4041 asian low unwinds the whole Asia rally
BoC decision at 13:45 UTC and FOMC at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; a BoC hold against ~85% hike pricing is the larger surprise
HH/HL chain since yesterday's NY low; tight range under the Asian high.
Asia dipped to an Asian low of 1.4041 at the open, then rallied to an Asian high of 1.4068. The move cleared yesterday's NY high at 1.4054 as the firm USD held ahead of today's BoC and FOMC. The last two hours have compressed between the 1.4063 micro low and 1.4068 with RSI(14) near 56, and the rising trendline from yesterday's NY low now sits at the NY high.
Support: 1.4063, 1.4054, 1.4041
Resistance: 1.40682, 1.4070
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.4068 Asian high and the 1.4070 round number extends the HH chain into London open
A break of the 1.4063 micro low exposes 1.4054, where the NY high, the rising trendline and the 50% fib of the Asia leg converge
Loss of the 1.4041 Asian low breaks the intraday uptrend structure
BoC decision at 13:45 UTC: a hold against ~85% hike pricing could materially shift this read; FOMC at 18:00 UTC follows
HH/HL chain off the Asian low, pressing session high.
Asia held the rollover dip at the 1.4041 Asian low, then broke the 1.4054 prior high from NY and built higher lows into a 1.4068 session high, a fresh weekly top on firm USD into today's BoC and FOMC. Price is holding above the 1.4063 swing low ahead of London open. RSI(14) is near 65 and ATR is under 3 pips, so ranges are compressed before event risk.
Support: 1.4063, 1.4054, 1.4041
Resistance: 1.4068, 1.4100
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4063 swing low breaks the higher-low chain; the 1.4054 prior high and rising trendline sit beneath
Loss of the 1.4041 Asian low would unwind the whole Asia leg
Clearing the 1.4068 session high puts the 1.4100 round number in view
BoC decision at 13:45 UTC; a hold against ~85% hike pricing could materially shift this read
FOMC at 18:00 UTC, press conference 18:30 UTC, is second-stage event risk
05:16 UTC
Uptrend, compressing under session high · RSI 66 · price 1.40659
Asia HH/HL chain after breakout above prior-day high.
Asia session dipped to a 1.4041 session low at the open, then cleared the 1.4054 prior high and printed a fresh session high at 1.4068 as USD firmness carries into the BoC/FOMC day. Late Asia is compressing just under that high above a 1.4059 shelf. RSI(14) near 66 is not stretched, and the 50% retracement of the Asia leg sits on the prior high.
Support: 1.4059, 1.4054, 1.4041
Resistance: 1.4068, 1.4100
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4068 session high extends the HH chain toward the 1.4100 round number
Loss of the 1.4059 shelf and the Asia trendline puts a retest of the 1.4054 prior high (50% fib) in play
Break below the 1.4041 session low invalidates the Asia HH/HL structure
BoC decision 13:45 UTC: a hold vs ~85% priced hike could materially shift this read
FOMC 18:00 UTC adds a second event risk later in the NY session
05:03 UTC
Uptrend, pausing below Asian high · RSI 57 · price 1.40637
Higher lows since NY; prior-day high broken in Asia, consolidating 1.4059-1.4068.
Firm USD into FOMC and pre-BoC positioning carried the NY rally from 1.4014 through the 1.4054 prior high during Asia. The pair tagged an Asian high at 1.4068, and late-Asia bars are compressing just under it on a tight 2.8-pip ATR, with the 1.4059 swing low holding beneath.
Support: 1.40589, 1.4054, 1.40408
Resistance: 1.40682, 1.4070
What it said to watch
Hold above the 1.4054 prior high, near the 50% fib of the Asian leg, keeps the breakout intact
M15 close below the 1.4059 swing low opens a retest of the prior high and the rising support line
Asian high at 1.4068 and the 1.4070 round number cap the move; London open is the first test
BoC decision 13:45 UTC (hike ~85% priced) could materially shift this read; a hold would be a CAD-negative surprise
FOMC 18:00 UTC adds a second volatility event; loss of the 1.4041 asian low would break the higher-low chain
Higher highs and higher lows; Asian session broke above the NY high and is holding above it.
Firm US data lifted the pair from 1.4014 to the 1.4054 NY high. Asia dipped to an Asian low at 1.4041, then broke through the NY high and printed a 1.4068 session high. Late in the Asian session, price is compressing on a 1.4060 Asian base just under that high, with RSI(14) near 60 and ATR around 3 pips.
Support: 1.4060, 1.40536, 1.40408
Resistance: 1.40682, 1.4100
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4068 session high extends the higher-high chain toward the 1.4100 round number
Loss of the 1.4060 Asian base exposes a retest of the 1.4054 NY high, which sits near the fib 50% of the overnight leg
Break below the 1.4041 Asian low and the rising trendline voids the higher-low structure
BoC decision at 13:45 UTC (2.50% hike priced; a hold is the larger upside risk for the pair) and FOMC at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia session dipped to a 1.4041 session low at the open, then broke through Tuesday's NY prior high at 1.4054. Firm USD into FOMC is carrying the pair to a fresh 1.4067 session high, with RSI(14) near 74 and higher lows stacking along rising support off the 1.4059 range floor. ATR around 3 pips reflects thin pre-London trade.
Support: 1.4059, 1.4054, 1.4041
Resistance: 1.4067, 1.4100
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4059 range floor breaks rising support and stalls the HL chain
Failure to hold the 1.4054 prior high (50% of the Asian leg fib) puts price back inside Tuesday's NY range
Close above the 1.4067 session high opens the path toward the 1.4100 round number
BoC decision 13:45 UTC (hike to 2.50% priced) and FOMC 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
04:02 UTC
Uptrend, compressing near highs · RSI 66 · price 1.40633
HH/HL chain; Asia broke prior NY high, tight range under session high.
After a rollover sweep to the 1.4041 swing low, the Asia session cleared the prior high at 1.4054 from NY. That extended the higher-low chain off yesterday's 1.4009 London low, and price is now compressing in a 1.4059 range low to 1.4065 session high band. The firm USD tone into FOMC is carrying the pair. RSI(14) is near 66 and ATR is a thin ~3.4 pips ahead of the BoC call.
Support: 1.4059, 1.40536, 1.40408
Resistance: 1.40652, 1.4070
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4059 range low ends the compression and puts the 1.4054 prior high, the fib 38–50% zone, under retest
Loss of the 1.4041 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and the rising support
Clearance of the 1.4065 session high opens the 1.4070 round number
BoC decision at 13:45 UTC; a hold vs the priced hike could materially shift this read
FOMC at 18:00 UTC is the second event risk for the USD leg
Higher lows off 1.4041 Asia low; prior high 1.4054 broken.
USDCAD has climbed about 55 pips from Tuesday's 1.4009 London low. It cleared the 1.4054 prior high in the Asia session and printed a session high at 1.4065, with RSI(14) near 69. CAD is softening ahead of today's BoC call, with price tracking a rising trendline off the 1.4041 Asia low and the 1.4054 retracement confluence holding below.
Support: 1.4059, 1.4054, 1.4041
Resistance: 1.4065, 1.4100
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4054 prior high turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.4059 asia shelf, the late-Asia consolidation floor, puts the 1.4041 asia low back in play
Acceptance above the 1.4065 session high leaves the 1.4100 round number as the next reference
BoC decision at 13:45 UTC (2.50% hike priced; a hold is the bigger upside risk for the pair) could materially shift this read
FOMC at 18:00 UTC, presser 18:30 UTC, adds a second event risk for the USD leg
HH/HL chain from 1.4009; Asia broke the NY high and is now compressing in a 1.4059–1.4064 micro range.
Tuesday's NY rally from 1.4009 to 1.4054 on firm US data carried into Asia, where an early dip held at the 1.4041 Asian low before price broke the NY high and printed a 1.4064 session high. That leaves the pair above the 1.4000–1.4020 pre-event range. The last eight bars have compressed between the 1.4059 range low and the session high, with RSI(14) near 69 and ATR(14) at roughly 3.6 pips.
Support: 1.4059, 1.4054, 1.4041
Resistance: 1.40644, 1.4100
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.4064 session high extends the HH chain, with the 1.4100 round number the next reference
A move back below the 1.4054 NY high turns the Asia breakout into a false break; the 38.2% of the Asian leg fib sits at the same area
Losing the 1.4041 Asian low, or the rising support from 1.4009, breaks the intraday HL sequence
London open around 07:00 UTC usually resets the Asian range
BoC decision at 13:45 UTC (~85% hike priced) and FOMC at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
03:16 UTC
Uptrend, pausing under session high · RSI 64 · price 1.40619
Higher highs and higher lows from the 1.4009 London low; tight coil 1.4059–1.4064.
USD firmed into the FOMC and lifted the pair from the 1.4009 London low through NY hours to 1.4054. Buyers stepped in at the 1.4041 Asian low, and price cleared the NY high to set a 1.4064 session high. It is now coiling 1.4059–1.4064 late in the Asia session with RSI(14) cooling from the high 60s.
Support: 1.40589, 1.40536, 1.40408
Resistance: 1.40644, 1.4100
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.4059 coil low puts the 1.4054 NY high retest in play
Loss of the 1.4041 Asian low and the rising support line breaks the higher-low chain
Close above the 1.4064 session high opens the path toward the 1.4100 round number
BoC decision 13:45 UTC (hike to 2.50% expected) and FOMC 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since the London low; Asia broke above the NY high and is holding.
USDCAD bounced off the London low near 1.4009 and climbed through NY on firm USD data. Asia dipped to the asia low at 1.4041, then broke the ny high at 1.4054 and set an asia high at 1.40644. Price is now holding just under that high, with RSI(14) near 63 and ranges contracting into the BoC and FOMC decisions.
Support: 1.4054, 1.4041
Resistance: 1.40644, 1.4100
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the ny high at 1.4054, which is also the 38.2% of the Asia leg, would mark the breakout as failed
Loss of the asia low at 1.4041 breaks the rising support from the London low
Clearance of the asia high at 1.40644 opens the 1.4100 round number
BoC decision at 13:45 UTC and FOMC at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from 1.4009; Asian break above NY high, now pausing.
The firm US Durable Goods and consumer confidence prints lifted price from the 1.4009 day low through the NY session. The Asia session swept 1.4041 near the daily open, then broke Tuesday's NY prior high at 1.4054 and set a 1.4064 session high. Price is now flat near 1.4060 with RSI(14) at 62 and ATR around 4 pips, ahead of the BoC and FOMC.
Support: 1.4054, 1.4041, 1.4009
Resistance: 1.4064, 1.4100
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 1.4054 prior high, which is also the 38.2% of the Asian rally fib, returns price to Tuesday's range
Failure to hold the 1.4041 Asian low would undo the Asian breakout
A close above the 1.4064 session high opens the path toward the 1.4100 round number
The BoC decision at 13:45 UTC and the FOMC at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; a BoC hold puts upside pressure on the pair
USDCAD dipped to an Asian low at 1.4041 after the open, then pushed through Tuesday's 1.4054 prior high to a session high at 1.4064. The firm USD into the Fed is behind the move, and the climb extends the rising lows from Tuesday's 1.4009 low. RSI(14) at 66 is warm but not stretched, and price is pausing just under the high with ATR near 4 pips.
Support: 1.40536, 1.40408
Resistance: 1.40644
What it said to watch
A close back below the 1.4054 prior high turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.4041 Asian low breaks the rising lows sequence
Acceptance above the 1.4064 session high extends the HH chain
BoC decision 13:45 UTC and FOMC 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from London low; prior NY high broken.
Asia session dipped to a 1.4041 asia low after the rollover. It then cleared Tuesday's 1.4054 prior NY high to print a 1.4063 session high, keeping the higher-low chain from the 1.4009 London low and its rising support intact. RSI(14) sits near 66, not stretched, against a firm USD into today's FOMC.
Support: 1.4054, 1.4041, 1.4009
Resistance: 1.4063, 1.4100
What it said to watch
Hold above the 1.4054 prior NY high, near the 50% of the asia leg fib, keeps the breakout read
A close back below the 1.4041 asia low breaks the HL chain and the rising support
Session high at 1.4063 is the near-term cap; acceptance above opens the 1.4100 round number
BoC decision 13:45 UTC and FOMC 18:00 UTC today could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from 1.4009; Asia broke prior NY high.
Early Asia dipped to the asia low at 1.4041, then reversed through Tuesday's NY prior high at 1.4054 to a session high of 1.4063 as the USD firmed into the Fed. This extends the higher-high chain and rising support off Tuesday's 1.4009 low. RSI(14) sits near 66, warm but not stretched.
Support: 1.4054, 1.4041
Resistance: 1.4063, 1.4100
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4054 prior high turns the breakout into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.4041 asia low breaks the rising support and the higher-low sequence
Clearing the 1.4063 session high puts the 1.4100 round number in focus
BoC decision at 13:45 UTC and FOMC at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
01:46 UTC
Uptrend, fresh high in Asia · RSI 69 · price 1.40618
Higher highs; dip to 1.4041 reversed through the prior high.
Early Asia session: a 9-pip flush to the 1.4041 asian low at 00:00 UTC failed. Price then reclaimed yesterday's NY prior high at 1.4054 and printed a session high at 1.4062, extending the higher-high chain from the 1.4009 london low as USD holds two-week highs into FOMC. RSI(14) near 69 is warm but not stretched, and the rising support line from the London low is intact.
Support: 1.4054, 1.4041, 1.4009
Resistance: 1.4062, 1.4100
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4054 prior high would mark the breakout as a false break
Loss of the 1.4041 asian low breaks the rising support and the higher-low sequence
Hold above the 1.4062 session high leaves the 1.4100 round number as the next reference
BoC decision 13:45 UTC and FOMC 18:00 UTC later today could materially shift this read
01:31 UTC
Uptrend, higher lows since NY · RSI 64 · price 1.40571
HH/HL chain; Asia broke above prior NY high.
USDCAD dipped to an asia low at 1.4041 after rollover, then rallied to a 1.4060 session high, clearing the prior high at 1.4054 set during NY hours. The rising support from yesterday's 1.4009 low is intact, RSI(14) near 64 and ATR around 3.4 pips, with USD firm into today's BoC and Fed decisions.
Support: 1.4054, 1.4041
Resistance: 1.4060
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4054 prior high on a closing basis turns the breakout into a false break
M15 close below the 1.4041 asia low breaks rising support and the higher-low chain
Rejection at the 1.4060 session high keeps Asia inside a narrow range
BoC decision at 13:45 UTC and Fed at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
01:16 UTC
Uptrend, fresh highs in early Asia · RSI 64 · price 1.40588
HH/HL chain from 1.4014 NY low, prior high 1.4054 cleared.
The post-rollover Asia dip to the 1.4041 asia low reversed sharply, and price cleared the 1.4054 prior high to print a window high at 1.4060. The HH/HL chain from the 1.4014 ny low holds along rising trendline support, with USD firm at two-week highs into FOMC and RSI(14) near 64, not stretched.
Support: 1.40536, 1.40408, 1.40142
Resistance: 1.4060, 1.4100
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4054 prior high turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.4041 asia low, which aligns with the 38.2% fib of the rally, breaks the HL chain
A sustained hold above the 1.4060 window high opens the 1.4100 psych handle
BoC decision at 13:45 UTC and FOMC at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
01:03 UTC
Uptrend, fresh window high · RSI 68 · price 1.4058
Higher highs and higher lows since the NY session; Asia breaking the late-NY high.
USD firmness into the Fed carried USDCAD off the London session low at 1.4009 into a steady NY climb. Early Asia dipped to a swing low at 1.4041, then pushed to 1.4058, clearing the late-NY prior high at 1.4054 with RSI(14) near 68 and the rising trendline intact.
Support: 1.4054, 1.4041, 1.4009
Resistance: 1.4060, 1.4100
What it said to watch
Close back below the 1.4054 prior high turns the Asia breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.4041 swing low breaks the rising trendline and the higher-low chain
1.4060 round number is the immediate test overhead; 1.4100 psych is the next marker above
BoC decision at 13:45 UTC and Fed at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Deeper slide toward the 1.4009 session low unwinds the NY rally
Tight 1.4041–1.4054 range after NY rally; sweep and reclaim of the Asian low.
USDCAD rallied in NY from the 1.4009 London low as the USD firmed into the Fed. Supply has capped the move at the 1.4054 prior high several times since. Early Asia swept below the rollover low to a 1.4041 session low and reclaimed it within two bars, leaving price back at 1.4050 near the range top.
Support: 1.40408, 1.40364
Resistance: 1.40536
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4054 prior high breaks the range to the upside
Loss of the 1.4041 session low exposes the fib 38.2 at 1.4036 and turns the reclaim into a false break
BoC decision at 13:45 UTC and the Fed at 18:00 UTC Wednesday could materially shift this read; a BoC hold is the larger-move scenario
HH/HL chain from London low into flat 1.4045–1.4054 top; break lower in Asia.
USDCAD climbed from the 1.4009 london low to a 1.4054 prior high through NY as USD firmed into the Fed, then flattened after the rollover. The first 03:00 broker bar of Asia cut 9 pips through the 1.4045 broken base to a 1.4041 session low, which sits on the 23.6% retracement, with RSI(14) near 41 and price under EMA20 but holding at EMA50.
Support: 1.40408, 1.40306, 1.40086
Resistance: 1.40449, 1.40513, 1.40536
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4041 session low exposes the 1.4031 swing low, which lines up with the 50% retracement
Recovery above the 1.4045 broken base puts price back inside the range, with the 1.4051 asian high and 1.4054 prior high above
Loss of 1.4031 swing low would break the HL chain back toward the 1.4009 london low
BoC decision Wed 13:45 UTC and Fed at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
00:17 UTC
Uptrend, first pullback underway · RSI 35 · price 1.40421
NY higher-low chain from 1.4009 to 1.4054; Asia opened with a drop back to the 23.6% fib.
NY hours lifted USDCAD from the 1.4009 London low to a 1.4054 session high as USD firmed into the Fed, with rejection twice at that high into the rollover. Asia opened with an 8-pip drop to a 1.4041 asia low, below the ema20 and onto the 23.6% fib and EMA50. RSI(14) is near 35.
Support: 1.4041, 1.40364, 1.40311
Resistance: 1.4049, 1.40536
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 38.2% fib at 1.4036 breaks the NY higher-low chain and exposes the 50% fib at 1.4031
Reclaiming the ema20 near 1.4049 puts the 1.4054 session high back in play
BoC decision at 13:45 UTC and Fed at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; ATR near 3 pips understates event risk
00:02 UTC
Uptrend, stalling near the highs · RSI 49 · price 1.40498
Post-breakout consolidation in a tight 1.4044–1.4054 box.
USD/CAD cleared the London high at 1.4027 during NY as firm US data and a bid dollar lifted it to the 1.4054 NY high. Since then it has compressed between the 1.4044 rollover low and that high into early Asia, with RSI(14) neutral near 49 and ATR shrinking to roughly 2.4 pips.
Support: 1.40442, 1.40275
Resistance: 1.40536
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4054 NY high extends the NY-session leg
Failure to hold the 1.4044 rollover low exposes the 38.2–61.8% NY rally fib zone at 1.4036–1.4026, near the London high
BoC decision at 13:45 UTC, then the Fed at 18:00 UTC Wednesday, could materially shift this read