23:03 UTC
Downtrend, corrective rebound in progress · RSI 56 · price 0.82501
Lower highs from 0.8313; rebound testing 50% retrace.
The dominant move followed Wednesday's London-open week high at 0.8313. The post-FOMC fade became a breakdown below 0.8272 in Thursday's NY session as falling Treasury yields weighed on the dollar, and the slide extended to a 0.8194 week low in Friday's Asia session. Friday's London-NY transition rebound reclaimed EMA(20), now near 0.8237, and stalled at the 0.8256 Friday high, which sits on the 50% retracement of the drop. Price is holding just above the 0.8248 weekly open, and RSI(14) has recovered to about 56 from sub-30 readings, but the lower-highs sequence from 0.8313 remains intact.
Support: 0.8248, 0.8237, 0.8194
Resistance: 0.8256, 0.8272, 0.8313
What it said to watch
- H1 close above the 0.8256 Friday high and the 61.8% retrace near 0.8267 challenges the lower-highs read, with the 0.8272 breakdown level next
- Failure to hold the 0.8248 weekly open and EMA(20) near 0.8237 returns focus to Friday's 0.8203 lows and the 0.8194 week low
- US ISM Manufacturing (Mon 15:00 UTC) and Swiss CPI (Tue 07:30 UTC) could materially shift this read