22:06 UTC
Uptrend stalled; lower highs since mid-Oct peak · RSI 49 · price 0.82453
Double top at 0.8382/0.8395, now ranging 0.8192–0.8313.
The rally from the 0.8052 sep low topped out in a double top at 0.8382/0.8395 (oct high), and the mid-October break back toward the 50% retracement of the Sep–Oct rally fib turned the pair into a 0.8192–0.8313 range. The hawkish-Fed push into the Oct 28 lower high at 0.8313 reversed after the Fed hold as yields slid, and Friday's bar probed the 0.8192 monthly low before rejecting to close near 0.8245. Price sits below EMA20 (~0.8264) but marginally above EMA50, with RSI near 48 showing no momentum edge, consistent with a third weekly USD decline.
Support: 0.8192, 0.8052
Resistance: 0.8313, 0.8395
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the 0.8192 monthly low (range floor) confirms a lower-low and puts the 61.8% retracement near 0.8183 and the sep low at 0.8052 in play
- Daily close above the 0.8313 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the oct high at 0.8395
- Swiss CPI on Tue: a hot print would pressure the range floor
- US ISM Manufacturing on Mon, plus the midterm results, could materially shift this read