22:04 UTC
Sep–Oct uptrend stalled; lower highs since the Oct 13 peak · RSI 49 · price 0.82457
Two-week range 0.8192–0.8313, capped below the 0.8395 high.
The rally from the 0.8052 Sep low peaked at the 0.8395 Oct high on Oct 13, and USD/CHF has printed lower highs since. The 0.8313 lower high was rejected after the Oct 28 Fed hold, as the USD softened into a third weekly loss. Demand has stepped in twice at the 0.8192 monthly low, just above the 61.8% retracement of the Sep–Oct leg. Price is now pinned between the EMA(20) near 0.8262 and a flattening EMA(50) near 0.8241, with RSI at 48 reflecting two weeks of neutral range trade.
Support: 0.8241, 0.8192, 0.8052
Resistance: 0.8262, 0.8313, 0.8395
What it said to watch
- A daily close below the 0.8192 monthly low breaks the base and the 61.8% retracement, exposing the 0.8052 Sep low
- Losing the EMA(50) at 0.8241 on a closing basis shifts the swing filter lower
- A close above the EMA(20) and the 0.8313 lower high would revive the Sep–Oct uptrend toward the 0.8395 Oct high
- Swiss CPI on Tue 07:30 UTC and the US midterm results overnight into Wed could materially shift this read
- NFP on Fri Nov 6 is the next US labour test for this read