Lower highs and lower lows; retesting broken 0.8190 monthly low from below.
London open sold through the Asian range low near 0.8230. After the London high at 0.8218 failed, NY pressed to a 0.8176 session low, breaking the 0.8190 monthly low as the USD slid with oil on Iran-deal hopes. Since the NY close, price has drifted up in thin Asia session trade into a retest of the broken monthly low, stalling at the 50% retrace of the NY leg with the ny base at 0.8180 underneath.
Support: 0.8180, 0.81761
Resistance: 0.8190, 0.8200, 0.82183
What it said to watch
Close back above the 0.8190 monthly low and the 0.8200 ny range top would neutralise the lower-low chain
Rejection at the 0.8190 retest keeps the lower-high sequence below the 0.8218 london high intact
Loss of the 0.8180 ny base and the 0.8176 session low extends the downtrend
Swiss CPI at 07:30 UTC and US midterm results overnight could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows through London and NY, late-NY base at 0.8176–0.8180, early Asia drifting in a tight band.
Monday's slide from the 0.8253 Asian high broke the 0.8190 monthly low during London as oil-driven USD softness took hold. Price then rejected the 0.8218 London high, capped NY at the 0.8200 range top and printed a 0.8176 day low into the close. Early Asia is holding a 0.8184–0.8190 band just under the monthly low, RSI(14) near 58, with the daily decline fib 23.6% at 0.8194 overhead.
Support: 0.8180, 0.81761
Resistance: 0.8190, 0.8200, 0.82183
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.8190 monthly low opens the 0.8200 NY range top
Loss of the 0.8180 NY base and the 0.8176 day low confirms a fresh lower-low
Midterm results overnight and Swiss CPI at 07:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Rejection under the 0.8194 daily decline fib keeps the lower-high sequence intact
Lower highs and lows through London/NY; higher lows off 0.8176 since late NY.
London broke the Asian range low near 0.8230. The slide extended to a 0.8176 session low in late NY as oil-driven USD weakness took price through the 0.8190 monthly low. Thin early-Asia trade has built higher lows along a rising line and is now retesting 0.8190 from below, at EMA50, with RSI(14) near 61 and ATR(14) about 4 pips.
Support: 0.8180, 0.81761
Resistance: 0.8190, 0.8203, 0.82183
What it said to watch
Sustained closes back above the 0.8190 monthly low would turn the break into a false break, with the 0.8203 NY range top next
Loss of the rising line and the 0.8180 swing low would re-expose the 0.8176 session low
38.2% retrace of the 0.8218–0.8176 leg sits at 0.8192; the 0.8218 lower high caps the London-NY sequence
Swiss CPI at 07:30 UTC (f/c 1.3% y/y) could materially shift this read
London broke the Asian range low near 0.8230 and sold off to 0.8189 as USD slid with oil on US-Iran deal hopes. The NY 0.8188–0.8200 range later gave way to a 0.8176 session low. Thin post-NY trade is now testing the broken 0.8190 monthly low from below, with RSI(14) near 57 and price sitting under the 0.8197 fib 50%.
Support: 0.8180, 0.8176
Resistance: 0.8190, 0.8200
What it said to watch
Two closes capped at 0.8190 keep the old monthly low acting as resistance; acceptance above it reopens the 0.8200 round number and the fib 50% at 0.8197
Loss of the 0.8180 double base exposes the 0.8176 session low and extends the lower-low sequence
Swiss CPI Tue 07:30 UTC (f/c 1.3% y/y) could materially shift this read
US midterm results overnight Nov 3-4 are a USD-side risk to the structure
22:46 UTC
Downtrend, late-session bounce into broken support · RSI 53 · price 0.81894
Lower highs and lows through London and NY; small higher-low grind off the 0.8176 day low after NY close.
The London session broke out of the Asian range and through the 0.8190 monthly low as the USD slid with oil on US-Iran diplomacy, and NY extended the move to a 0.8176 day low. Thin post-NY trade has built a higher low at 0.8183 along a rising support line and is now retesting 0.8190 from below, where the broken monthly low meets the EMA50 just under the 38.2% of the swing high-to-day low fib.
Support: 0.81826, 0.81761
Resistance: 0.8190, 0.82022, 0.82183
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.8190 monthly low reclaims broken support and opens the 0.8202 NY range top, which lines up with the 61.8% fib
Rejection at 0.8190 keeps the lower-high sequence intact; 0.8218 swing high is the last lower high
A break of the 0.8183 higher low ends the late-session rising support
Failure to hold the 0.8176 day low confirms a fresh lower low
Swiss CPI Tue 07:30 UTC (f/c 1.3% y/y) lands into London open; US midterm results and JOLTS 15:00 UTC follow
22:31 UTC
Downtrend, basing after NY close · RSI 58 · price 0.81868
Lower highs from the London high; late base holding above the 0.8176 day low.
London broke below the Asian range and the 0.8190 monthly low as the USD softened on the oil-led slide in yields. NY extended to a 0.8176 day low, then a late base near 0.8180 lifted price back to retest 0.8190, now the 38.2% fib zone, after NY close. RSI(14) is at 58 and ATR is about 4 pips into a quiet Asia session.
Support: 0.8180, 0.81761
Resistance: 0.8190, 0.8200
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.8190 monthly low (38.2% fib 0.8192) opens the 0.8200 round number and breaks the lower-high chain
Rejection at 0.8190 keeps the downtrend read, with the 0.8180 late base and 0.8176 day low back in view
A break of the 0.8176 day low confirms a fresh lower-low
Swiss CPI (Tue 07:30 UTC) and US midterm results could materially shift this read
22:16 UTC
Downtrend, stalling into late NY · RSI 52 · price 0.81865
Lower highs from London; tight base above session low.
London broke the Asian range (0.8230–0.8254) lower and took out the 0.8190 monthly low as the USD softened on sliding oil and yields. Lower highs at the 0.8218 London high and 0.8204 NY high capped the bounces, and a fresh session low printed at 0.8176. Into the rollover, price is basing in a narrow 0.8176–0.8190 band with RSI(14) neutral near 52.
Support: 0.8176
Resistance: 0.8190, 0.8204, 0.8218
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 0.8190 (former monthly low) and the 38.2% retrace of the London-NY leg near 0.8192 would break the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 0.8176 session low extends the downtrend
Swiss CPI Tue 07:30 UTC (f/c 1.3% y/y) and US midterms Tue could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.8218; base at 0.8188 lost in NY, now retested from below.
Softer USD on easing oil and yields carried London through the Asian range low near 0.8230. NY then broke the 0.8188 prior base and the 0.8190 monthly-low zone to a 0.8176 session low. A thin bounce after NY close is now pressing that prior base, which lines up with the falling trendline from the 0.8218 London high.
Support: 0.8183, 0.8176
Resistance: 0.8189, 0.8200, 0.8218
What it said to watch
Close back above the 0.8189 prior base and the falling trendline negates the NY breakdown and puts the 0.8200 NY cap back in play
Rejection at 0.8189 keeps the lower-high sequence intact; loss of the ema20 at 0.8183 exposes the 0.8176 session low
Fib 38.2% of the London-NY leg sits near 0.8192, just above the prior base
Swiss CPI Tue 07:30 UTC and US midterms Tuesday could reset this read, with liquidity thin into the Asia session
21:46 UTC
Downtrend, compressing after NY · RSI 45 · price 0.81844
Lower highs from London; tight post-NY band 0.8176–0.8189 below broken monthly low.
USDCHF slid from the 0.8253 Asian high through London and NY, breaking the 0.8190s monthly low as falling oil and softer yields weighed on USD. The session low at 0.8176 printed at 20:00 UTC after a double low at 0.8179. Post-NY trade is now compressing under the 0.8189 swing high, with RSI(14) neutral near 45.
Support: 0.81794, 0.81761
Resistance: 0.81892, 0.8193, 0.82037
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.8193 monthly low turns the break into a false break; the ny high at 0.8204 sits near the 38.2% of the day decline fib
Loss of the 0.8176 session low extends the lower-low chain
Swiss CPI Tue 07:30 UTC (f/c 1.3% y/y) and US midterm results could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lows since the London open, now a tight 0.8176–0.8189 band.
The London open broke the Asian range low near 0.8230 and the 0.8190 monthly-low area as USD slipped on the oil slide and lower yields. The 0.8218 london high, then the 0.8204 ny range top, set lower highs, and NY printed a 0.8176 session low. Since then price has compressed beneath the 0.8189 lower high, sitting just under EMA20 with RSI(14) near 45.
Support: 0.8180, 0.81761
Resistance: 0.81892, 0.82037, 0.82183
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8189 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and opens the 0.8204 ny range top
A loss of the 0.8180 round number and a close below the 0.8176 session low extend the lower-low sequence
The 50% fib of the london high to session low leg sits near 0.8197, just under the ny range top
Swiss CPI Tue 07:30 UTC and the US midterms Tue could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lows from the Asian range; late-NY drift above the session low.
USDCHF slid from the 0.8253 Asian range high through London. A softer dollar, with oil and yields lower on US-Iran diplomacy, broke the 0.8190 monthly low after the NY range top at 0.8204 capped. Late NY is consolidating in a tight 0.8176–0.8189 band above the session low, with RSI(14) near 44 and ATR around 4 pips.
Support: 0.81761, 0.8175
Resistance: 0.8189, 0.82037, 0.82183
What it said to watch
Close back above the 0.8189 former monthly low reclaims the broken level and stalls the lower-low chain
Failure to hold the 0.8176 session low exposes the 0.8175 round number
Bounce into the 0.8192–0.8197 fib zone below the NY range top tests whether lower highs persist
Swiss CPI Tue 07:30 UTC near London open and US midterm results could materially shift this read
London high at 0.8218 marks the top of the current down-leg
Lower highs and lower lows since the 0.8218 swing high; Asian range broken below.
London open broke the Asian range low near 0.8229 and ran to the 0.8189 London low as USD softened on oil's slide and lower yields despite the ISM beat. NY held a 0.8188–0.8204 range before breaking under the London low, with lower highs capping each bounce and a 0.81761 session low printed late. Price is drifting just above the 0.8179 NY lows into the Asia session, ATR(14) at about 4.6 pips.
Support: 0.8179, 0.81761, 0.8150
Resistance: 0.8189, 0.8204, 0.82183
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.8189 London low breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 0.81761 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.8150 round number
Recovery through the 0.8204 NY range top would reclaim the 61.8% fib of the drop from the 0.8218 swing high
US midterm results overnight and Swiss CPI Tue 07:30 UTC could materially shift this read
20:46 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading late NY · RSI 39 · price 0.81791
Lower highs, compressing above session low.
London broke the 0.8230 Asian range low and NY broke down out of its 0.8188–0.8204 range through the 0.8190s monthly-low zone, as oil's slide and lower US yields weighed on the dollar. Lower highs at the 0.8218 london high, 0.8204 ny range top and 0.8189 broken low have capped each bounce. Late NY is grinding just above the 0.8176 session low, with RSI(14) near 39 and not stretched.
Support: 0.81761
Resistance: 0.81892, 0.82037, 0.82183
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8176 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery above the 0.8189 broken low breaks the lower-highs trendline and reopens the NY range top at 0.8204
US midterm results overnight and Swiss CPI at 07:30 UTC could materially shift this read
20:31 UTC
Downtrend, momentum flattening in late NY · RSI 43 · price 0.81817
Lower highs since London; price below broken 0.8188–0.8204 midday range.
London broke below the 0.8230–0.8254 Asian range, and NY extended lower through the 0.8190 monthly low after the ISM beat failed to lift a dollar dragged by sliding oil and lower yields. Lower highs are capping each bounce off the 0.8179 double base, and the 20:00 UTC dip to a 0.8176 session low was bought back inside the bar.
Support: 0.8179, 0.8176
Resistance: 0.8190, 0.8204, 0.8218
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 0.8190 monthly low and the lower-highs line breaks the late-NY sequence; 0.8204 ny high and 0.8218 london high sit above
Sustained trade below the 0.8176 session low extends the lower-low chain
US midterm results overnight and Swiss CPI Tue 07:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower-high/lower-low chain; NY range broken, basing at prior lows.
London took USD/CHF out of the 0.8239–0.8254 Asian range and through the 0.8190 monthly-low zone (london low 0.8189) as a softer USD and the oil slide weighed. The early-NY 0.8188–0.8200 range then gave way, and late NY is grinding along prior lows near 0.8179, with a brief sweep to the 0.8176 session low and a falling trendline of lower highs capping.
Support: 0.8179, 0.81761
Resistance: 0.81893, 0.8200, 0.82183
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.8189 london low and the falling trendline would break the lower-high sequence
Acceptance below the 0.8176 session low extends the lower-low chain
0.8200 ny range top sits at the 61.8% fib of the leg off the 0.8218 rebound high
Swiss CPI (Tue 07:30 UTC) and overnight US midterm results could materially shift this read
20:02 UTC
Downtrend, momentum stalling late NY · RSI 37 · price 0.81818
Lower highs from London; monthly low broken, basing at session low.
USD/CHF lost the Asian range low near 0.8230 into London open and broke the 0.8190 monthly low, as a softer USD tracked oil's slide and lower yields; the 0.8218 london high at 10:45 UTC capped the rebound. The NY range of 0.8188–0.8204 gave way after 16:00 UTC, and late NY is now basing on a twice-tested 0.8179 session low, with RSI(14) near 37 and ATR around 5 pips.
Support: 0.81794
Resistance: 0.8190, 0.82037, 0.82183
What it said to watch
A close back above the 0.8190 monthly low would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.8179 session low extends the lower-low sequence
A recovery to the 0.8204 range top, also the 61.8% retrace of the london high leg, tests the downtrend read
US midterm results overnight and Swiss CPI at 07:30 UTC could materially shift this read
19:46 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 38 · price 0.8184
Lower highs below broken 0.8190 monthly low.
London broke the Asian range low near 0.8230. NY then held a 0.8188–0.8204 band before slipping through the 0.8190 monthly low in the afternoon, as softer oil and lower yields kept USD heavy despite the ISM beat. The session low at 0.8179 has held twice. The later retest of the old monthly low at 0.8189 was rejected, and price is pressing the lower-highs line with RSI(14) near 38.
Support: 0.8179
Resistance: 0.8189, 0.8204, 0.8218
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8179 session low extends the lower-low chain
Sustained recovery above the 0.8189 monthly low would turn the break into a false break
0.8200–0.8204 ny range top sits at the 61.8% fib of the London high-to-low leg
A close above the lower-highs line opens the 0.8218 london high
Swiss CPI (Tue 07:30 UTC) and overnight US midterm results could materially shift this read
19:31 UTC
Downtrend, late-NY stall at the lows · RSI 34 · price 0.81806
Lower highs and lower lows since London open; double print at 0.8179 session low.
USDCHF broke the Asian range at London open and has held a lower-high chain under a descending trendline, cutting through the 0.8189–0.8193 monthly low as the dollar softened alongside oil. A late-NY leg out of the 0.8188–0.8200 range top band printed the 0.8179 session low twice, with RSI(14) at 34 and the 0.8189 retest high capping.
Support: 0.81794
Resistance: 0.81892, 0.8200, 0.82183
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.8189 monthly low turns the break into a false break and exposes the 0.8200 range top
Failure to hold the 0.8179 session low extends the lower-low chain
Break of the lower-highs trendline and the 61.8% of the London high leg near 0.8203 would end the intraday sequence
US midterm results overnight and Swiss CPI Tue 07:30 UTC could materially shift this read
NY range broken lower, bounce capped at the old range floor.
London broke the Asian range lower and USD/CHF has printed lower highs since the 0.8218 London high. Late in NY it slipped out of the 0.8188–0.8204 range and through the 0.8190s monthly low as the softer USD, with oil sliding and election caution, weighed. The bounce off the 0.8179 session low stalled at the 0.8189 range floor, now a retest from below; RSI(14) ~31, not yet extreme.
Support: 0.81794
Resistance: 0.81892, 0.82037, 0.82183
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.8189 range floor would mark the break below the monthly low as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.8179 session low extends the lower-low chain
Lower-highs trendline stays intact while price holds below the 0.8204 range top
Midterm results overnight into Asia and Swiss CPI Tue 07:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower-high/lower-low chain; 0.8188–0.8204 NY range broken lower, bounce stalling under 0.8189.
USD/CHF broke below the 0.8190 monthly low during NY hours and set a session low at 0.8179. That extends the lower-high chain from the 0.8218 swing high and 0.8204 NY high, as the softer USD on the oil-driven drop in inflation premium and pre-election caution weighed. The late-NY bounce is stalling at 0.8189, the old floor and 38.2% retrace of the last leg, with RSI(14) near 38 and price under both EMAs.
Support: 0.81794
Resistance: 0.8189, 0.82037, 0.82183
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 0.8189 monthly low turns the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.8179 session low confirms a fresh lower-low
Close above the 0.8204 NY high breaks the lower-high sequence and the trendline
Swiss CPI Tue 07:30 UTC (f/c 1.3% y/y) and overnight midterm results could materially shift this read
Lower highs since London; 0.8188–0.8190 base broken, retest from below.
London broke below the Asian range (0.8230–0.8254). Price then printed lower highs at the 0.8218 London high and the 0.8203 lower high, under a falling downtrend line. In NY the 0.8188–0.8190 prior lows, the monthly-low zone, gave way to a 0.8179 session low; the drop is now being retested from below with RSI(14) near 37 and mixed US data offering no clean impulse.
Support: 0.8179
Resistance: 0.8190, 0.8203, 0.8218
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 0.8190 prior lows negates the break and reopens the 0.8203 lower high
Rejection at 0.8190 and loss of the 0.8179 session low extends the lower-low chain
Close above the downtrend line near 0.8195 and the 0.8218 London high breaks the lower-high sequence
Loan Officer Survey 19:00 UTC, midterm results overnight and Swiss CPI Tue 07:30 UTC could materially shift this read
18:31 UTC
Downtrend, minor bounce off session low · RSI 37 · price 0.81883
Lower highs and lower lows since London; afternoon range broken lower, retesting from below.
USDCHF fell from the 0.8253 Asian range high through London and broke the 0.8190 monthly low. The ISM beat lifted the pair only to a 0.8204 lower high, and NY then pushed to a 0.8179 session low. Price is now retesting 0.8190 from below, with RSI(14) near 37.
Support: 0.81794
Resistance: 0.8190, 0.82037, 0.82183
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.8190 monthly low puts price back inside the 0.8188–0.8204 afternoon range and negates the break
Close above the 0.8204 lower high and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high chain; the 0.8218 london high is next
Failure below the 0.8179 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Fib 38.2% at 0.8194 sits just above the monthly low; rejection there keeps the retest read intact
Fed Loan Officer Survey 19:00 UTC; Swiss CPI Tue 07:30 UTC could materially shift this read
18:16 UTC
Downtrend, extending to new session lows · RSI 38 · price 0.81829
Lower highs from 0.8218; NY range floor 0.8188 broken after London close.
London open broke the 0.8230–0.8254 Asian range lower. A 0.8188–0.8204 NY range then gave way after London close, taking out the 0.8190 monthly low and printing a 0.8179 session low. The USD recovery after the ISM beat has not shown up here; lower highs from the 0.8218 swing high hold, and RSI(14) at ~38 is not stretched.
Support: 0.81794
Resistance: 0.8188, 0.82037, 0.82183
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.8188 range floor would mark the monthly-low break as a false break
Acceptance below the 0.8179 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 0.8204 range top breaks the lower-high trendline from the 0.8218 swing high
Swiss CPI Tue 07:30 UTC (f/c 1.3% y/y) could materially shift this read; US midterm results overnight add gap risk
Late-NY break of the 0.8188–0.8204 range, stalling above session low.
The Asian range gave way into London and NY. The pair has now slipped through the 0.8188 broken low and the 0.8190s monthly-low zone, printing a 0.8179 session low as a softer USD and firmer CHF persist. Lower highs from the 0.8218 bounce high and the 0.8204 range top define the move; RSI(14) is near 34 with no oversold extreme, and price is holding just above the session low late in NY.
Support: 0.81794
Resistance: 0.8188, 0.82037, 0.82183
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.8188 broken low negates the range break and returns price to the prior range
Failure to hold the 0.8179 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 0.8204 range top breaks the lower-high trendline structure
Swiss CPI Tue 07:30 UTC (f/c 1.3% y/y) and US midterm results overnight could materially shift this read
17:46 UTC
Downtrend, fresh session low after London close · RSI 38 · price 0.8182
Lower highs and lower lows; NY range floor broken.
A softer USD kept the pair heading lower from the Asian range high near 0.8254. London cut through the 0.8190s monthly-low zone, then NY held a 0.8188–0.8204 range until its floor gave way after London close to a 0.8180 session low. Lower highs at the 0.8218 swing high and 0.8204 are intact, and RSI(14) near 38 is not stretched.
Support: 0.8180
Resistance: 0.8188, 0.8204, 0.8218
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.8188 range floor would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.8180 session low extends the lower-low chain
Recovery through the 0.8204 NY range high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the intraday sequence
Senior Loan Officer Survey at 19:00 UTC and overnight midterm results could materially shift this read; Swiss CPI follows Tue 07:30 UTC
17:31 UTC
Downtrend, fresh leg lower late NY · RSI 37 · price 0.81837
Lower highs from 0.8218; NY range floor broken after London close.
USD/CHF held a 0.8188–0.8204 range through the NY session, then broke the range floor at the 0.8190 monthly-low zone after London close, printing a session low at 0.8180 as CHF kept its firmer tone. Lower highs from the 0.8218 swing high are intact, the 0.8200–0.8204 range top sits at the 50–61.8% fib, and RSI(14) is near 36, not stretched.
Support: 0.81803, 0.8150
Resistance: 0.81884, 0.82037, 0.82183
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.8188 range floor would mark the break as a false break
Reclaim of the 0.8204 range top / 61.8% fib breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.8180 session low leaves the 0.8150 round number as the next reference
Senior Loan Officer Survey 19:00 UTC, then Swiss CPI Tue 07:30 UTC and US midterm results could materially shift this read
17:16 UTC
Downtrend, fresh session low in late NY · RSI 35 · price 0.81828
Lower highs from 0.8218; NY range floor at 0.8188 broken.
London took the pair out of the 0.8239–0.8254 Asian range on a softer USD and oil slide. Late NY has now broken the 0.8188 broken floor that held three times, printing a 0.8180 session low below the 0.8190s monthly low. Rebounds have stalled under the descending highs line from the 0.8218 london high, with the 0.8204 ny range top capping NY. RSI(14) near 35 is soft but not oversold.
Support: 0.8180
Resistance: 0.8188, 0.8204, 0.8218
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 0.8188 broken floor would mark the break below the monthly low as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.8180 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Close above the descending highs line and 0.8204 ny range top invalidates the lower-high structure
Swiss CPI Tue 07:30 UTC (f/c 1.3% y/y) could materially shift this read; US midterms Tue add overnight event risk
16:46 UTC
Downtrend, stalling into a basing range · RSI 46 · price 0.81922
London breakdown below the Asian range, NY boxed in 0.8188–0.8204.
London broke the Asian low near 0.8229 and extended the drop to the 0.8188 session low, a slide driven by softer USD on US-Iran diplomacy headlines. The ISM beat produced only a bounce off the lows. NY has since held a tight 0.8188–0.8204 range, with four tests of the session low around the 0.8190 monthly low and lower highs from the 0.8218 bounce high capping the range top.
Support: 0.8188
Resistance: 0.82037, 0.82183, 0.8229
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8188 session low breaks the monthly-low floor and resumes the London downtrend
Acceptance above the 0.8204 range top and the lower-highs line reopens the 0.8218 bounce high, which sits near the 50% retrace of the London drop
Asian low at 0.8229 is the level that would neutralise the London breakdown
Swiss CPI Tue 07:30 UTC (f/c 1.3% y/y) is the next catalyst that could break the range
US midterms Tue: results overnight are the main USD swing factor for this range
16:31 UTC
Downtrend, compressing at the lows · RSI 44 · price 0.8192
Lower highs into a tight NY range above the monthly low.
London broke the pair below the Asian range, from the 0.8253 asian high through 0.8200, as softer ISM details and a 5% oil drop left USD on the back foot despite the headline beat. NY has compressed in a 0.8188–0.8204 band, with the monthly low tested four times and lower highs from the 0.8218 swing high capping rebounds.
Support: 0.8188
Resistance: 0.8204, 0.8218, 0.8253
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8188 monthly low extends the post-Fed decline
Close above the 0.8204 NY high breaks the lower-highs sequence; 0.8213–0.8218 (38.2% fib / swing high) is next
Swiss CPI Tue 07:30 UTC (f/c 1.3% y/y) and US midterms Tue could materially shift this read
Lower highs capping a 0.8188–0.8204 base after London broke the Asian range.
London broke below the Asian low at 0.8230 and the decline stalled at 0.8188. That session low has held three times during NY hours, sitting on the 0.8190 monthly-low zone, as USD stays soft on mixed ISM details and the oil slide. Price is compressing under a descending trendline from the 0.8218 swing high, with the range top at 0.8204 capping into the London close.
Support: 0.8188
Resistance: 0.8204, 0.8218, 0.8230
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8188 session low breaks the monthly-low floor and extends the post-London decline
Close above the 0.8204 range top and the descending trendline opens the 0.8218 swing high, then the 0.8230 Asian low
Goolsbee remarks (16:15 UTC) on December hike odds could jolt the range
Swiss CPI Tue 07:30 UTC and US midterm results could materially shift this read
16:02 UTC
Downtrend, stalling at monthly-low zone · RSI 50 · price 0.81979
Lower highs from 0.8218 swing high, flat base at 0.8188.
London broke below the asian low at 0.8239 and extended to the 0.8188 session low. That level, near the 0.8190 monthly low, has held four tests since 09:00 UTC. NY has compressed into a 16-pip range under the 0.8204 range top, with price pinned to EMA20 and RSI(14) neutral near 50, after mixed ISM details and the oil slide kept USD soft.
Support: 0.8188
Resistance: 0.8204, 0.8218, 0.8239
What it said to watch
Sustained break below the 0.8188 session low extends the post-Fed decline through the monthly low
M15 close above the 0.8204 range top and descending trendline opens the 0.8213 38.2% of the session decline and the 0.8218 swing high
Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC on December hike odds could break the NY range
Swiss CPI Tue 07:30 UTC and the US midterms could materially shift this read
15:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, stalling into a range · RSI 49 · price 0.81992
Post-London flat range 0.8188–0.8204 below a lower high.
London broke the Asian low at 0.8230 and slid to 0.8189 as the USD softened on US-Iran diplomacy and a firm Swiss PMI. The 0.8218 london high capped the rebound, and NY has since compressed into a 0.8188–0.8204 range. Three tests of the day low held just under the 0.8190–0.8193 monthly low. Price is pinned to EMA20, RSI(14) is near 49 and the day trendline is overhead.
Support: 0.8193, 0.8188
Resistance: 0.8204, 0.8218, 0.8230
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.8188 day low confirms acceptance under the monthly low and extends the London leg
Close above 0.8204 range top (23.6% fib) and the day trendline opens 0.8218 london high, then 0.8230 asian low
Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could break the NY range near London close
Swiss CPI (Tue 07:30 UTC) and the US midterms are the next catalysts for this range
15:16 UTC
Downtrend, stalled into a tight base · RSI 44 · price 0.81984
Lower high at 0.8218, compressing between 0.8188 and 0.8200 through NY.
London open broke the Asian low at 0.8230 and slid to 0.8189. The rebound stalled at the 0.8218 swing high, near the 50% retrace of the Asian-high-to-session-low leg, and the soft-USD tone has since held the pair in a 0.8188–0.8200 range through the NY session, with ISM producing only a muted swing inside it. The session low at 0.8188 has held three tests, and the 0.8200 range top has capped every bounce since 12:30 UTC.
Support: 0.8188
Resistance: 0.8200, 0.8218, 0.8230
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8188 session low, also the monthly-low area, extends the London-open slide
Close above the 0.8200 range top shifts focus to the 0.8218 swing high and the 0.8230 asian low
Fed's Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could break the NY range
Swiss CPI Tue 07:30 UTC; a hot print tests CHF demand below 0.8188
Lower highs into 0.8200, flat base at 0.8188 across London and early NY.
London opened by breaking the Asian low at 0.8230 and slid to 0.8189, with soft USD and the Swiss SVME PMI beat keeping CHF firm. The rebound stalled at the 0.8218 swing high, just short of the 50% fib of the 0.8253–0.8188 leg. Since then lower highs have compressed into the 0.8200 round number against a session low at 0.8188 that has held four times; price sits just under the 0.8190 monthly low.
Support: 0.8188
Resistance: 0.8200, 0.82183, 0.82302
What it said to watch
US ISM Mfg PMI is printing on the current 15:00 UTC bar, with Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC; either could break the 0.8188–0.8200 range
An M15 close below the 0.8188 session low confirms a break of the monthly low
A close above the 0.8200 round number and the lower highs line points to a retest of the 0.8218 swing high
Swiss CPI at 07:30 UTC tomorrow is the next CHF-side risk; the 0.8230 asian low caps any extended rebound
Asian range broken lower; tight 0.8188–0.8201 base after a lower high at 0.8218.
London broke below the asian low at 0.8230 and pushed price to a 0.8188 session low near the 0.8190 monthly low, as the dollar stayed soft and CHF held firm after the Swiss PMI beat. The London bounce stalled at a 0.8218 swing high. Since then, 0.8188–0.8190 has held on three tests through the NY open, with price compressing under a 0.8201 range top and just below EMA20. That range top sits near the 23.6% fib of the Asian-high-to-session-low drop.
Support: 0.8188
Resistance: 0.8201, 0.8218, 0.8230
What it said to watch
ISM Mfg PMI at 15:00 UTC, then Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC, could break the 0.8188–0.8201 base either way
An M15 close below the 0.8188 session low takes out the monthly-low area and extends the drop
An M15 close above the 0.8201 range top opens the 0.8218 swing high
Acceptance back above the 0.8230 asian low would negate the London range break
Lower highs since Asia; twin lows at 0.8188 into NY open.
London broke below the 0.8230 Asian low and extended the slide to a 0.8188 session low, tested again in the first hour of NY near the 0.8190 monthly low, as CHF held its bid after the Swiss PMI beat and USD stayed soft. Bounces have been capped by lower highs at 0.8218 and the 0.8200 round number. RSI(14) at 38 is soft but not stretched.
Support: 0.8188
Resistance: 0.8200, 0.8218, 0.8230
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8188 session low extends the lower-low chain through the monthly low
Close above the 0.8200 round number and the lower highs trendline breaks the sequence and exposes the 0.8218 lower high, near the 38.2% of the Asia-London drop
ISM Manufacturing PMI at 15:00 UTC and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the Asian high; triple test of 0.8188 holding.
London broke below the Asian range (0.8230–0.8254) and the Friday low at 0.8225, sliding to 0.8188 on a softer USD and a firm CHF after the SVME PMI beat. Since then 0.8188 has held as a triple low near the 0.8190 monthly-low zone. A lower high at 0.8218 caps the rebound, and early NY trade is compressing just under the 0.8200 round number, which is also the 38.2% fib of that leg. RSI(14) is near 40.
Support: 0.8188
Resistance: 0.8200, 0.8218, 0.8225
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8188 triple low extends the lower-low sequence through the monthly-low zone
Acceptance above the 0.8200 round number (38.2% fib) puts the 0.8218 lower high and the trendline back in play
Recovery above the 0.8225 Friday low would neutralise the London range break
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Swiss CPI Tue 07:30 UTC is the next CHF-side catalyst
Lower highs from 0.8218; triple test of 0.8188 day low.
London broke the Asian low near 0.8231 and slid to the 0.8188 day low, briefly under the 0.8190 monthly low, as a soft USD and the Swiss PMI beat lifted CHF. Three holds at 0.8188-0.8189 have produced an NY open bounce to the 38.2% retrace of the 0.8218 london high to day-low leg, now pressing the descending trendline and ema20 near 0.8202-0.8205.
Support: 0.81961, 0.81879
Resistance: 0.82051, 0.82183, 0.82308
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8205 trendline breaks the lower-high chain and puts the 0.8218 london high, then the 0.8231 asian low, in range
Slip back below the 0.8196 swing low returns focus to the 0.8188 day low; acceptance beneath it confirms a break of the 0.8190 monthly low
ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Asia; triple test of 0.8188 session low in early NY.
London broke below the Asian range low near 0.8230 and slid to the 0.8188 session low, under the 0.8190–0.8193 monthly low flagged in the CHF digest. Softer USD and the Swiss PMI beat are behind the move, and the rebound stalled at the 0.8218 rebound high. Early NY has held the session low three times and is compressing under the 0.8198 minor high, with RSI(14) near 38.
Support: 0.8188
Resistance: 0.81975, 0.82051, 0.82183
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.8188 session low extends the lower-low sequence.
A close above the 0.8205 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and opens the 0.8218 rebound high.
ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.6) and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read.
Swiss CPI Tue 07:30 UTC is the next CHF-side risk.
Asian range broken lower in London, lower highs, marginal lower low at 0.81879.
London broke the Asian low at 0.82302 and slid through the 0.8190 monthly-low area after the Swiss PMI beat, with lower highs at the 0.82183 swing high and the 0.82051 lower high capping rebounds. The 0.81879 session low is only a pip or so below the 09:00 UTC trough, and price is compressing just above it into the London-NY transition, RSI(14) near 38.
Support: 0.81879
Resistance: 0.82051, 0.82183, 0.82302
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.81879 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery above the 0.82051 lower high and the descending line breaks the lower-high chain; the London leg fib 50% sits near 0.8213, just under the 0.82183 swing high
ISM Manufacturing PMI at 15:00 UTC and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Reclaim of the 0.82302 Asian low would neutralise the range break
Lower highs at 0.8218 and 0.8205; lows near-equal at 0.8189/0.8188.
The London session drove a 50-pip slide from 0.8239 through the 0.8190–0.8193 monthly low as the USD softened on Iran-diplomacy hopes. The bounce stalled at the 0.8218 swing high, the 61.8% of the London leg. A lower high at 0.8205 followed, and early NY is holding just above a marginally lower session low at 0.8188 with RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 0.8193, 0.8188
Resistance: 0.8205, 0.8218
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8188 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 0.8205 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline; a close above the 0.8218 swing high voids the downtrend read
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower-high/lower-low chain below the Asian range, probing the monthly low.
London broke the 0.8230 Asian low and pressed to 0.8189. A lower high at 0.8218 then gave way to a sweep of that low to a fresh session low at 0.8188, just under the 0.8190 monthly low, as the soft USD and firm CHF backdrop holds. Early in NY session price sits just above that low, under a falling trendline from the London highs, with RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 0.81879
Resistance: 0.82051, 0.82183, 0.82302
What it said to watch
Sustained trade below the 0.8188 session low confirms a break of the 0.8190 monthly low
M15 close above the 0.8205 minor high and the falling trendline weakens the lower-high sequence
Reclaim of the 0.8218 lower high, near the 38.2% fib, invalidates the downtrend read
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read; Swiss CPI follows Tue 07:30 UTC
12:46 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 39 · price 0.81894
Asian range broken lower, lower high at 0.8218, session low retest.
London broke the Asian low at 0.8239 and slid through the 0.8190–0.8193 monthly-low zone. CHF held its PMI-driven bid and the USD stayed soft. The rebound stalled at the 0.8218 swing high near the 61.8% fib, and late London is now retesting the session low at 0.8188 with RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 0.81879
Resistance: 0.82051, 0.82183, 0.8239
What it said to watch
Sustained trade below the 0.8188 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery above the 0.8205 minor high and then the 0.8218 swing high breaks the descending trendline and the lower-high chain
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read in the NY session
Asian low at 0.8239 now marks the top of the broken range
Lower highs at 0.8254, 0.8218 and 0.8205; lows at 0.8189 being retested.
London broke below the 0.8239 Asian low and ran to 0.8189 as USD stayed soft on Iran-diplomacy hopes. The rebound stalled at a 0.8218 lower high near the 50% fib of the Asia-London drop, and a second lower high formed at 0.8205. Price is now retesting the London low inside the 0.8190–0.8200 monthly-low zone, with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 0.81893
Resistance: 0.82051, 0.82183, 0.8239
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.8189 London low extends the lower-low chain beneath the monthly lows
A recovery above the 0.8205 swing high breaks the descending trendline; above the 0.8218 lower high, the downtrend read weakens
The 0.8239 Asian low is the line separating today's sell-off from the overnight range
ISM Manufacturing (15:00 UTC) and Fed's Goolsbee (16:15 UTC) could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower, lower high at 0.8218, swing low retest.
London broke below the Asian low at 0.8230 and Friday's prior low near 0.8203. It printed a 0.8189 session low inside the 0.8190–0.8200 monthly-low zone as soft USD tone and the Swiss PMI beat weighed. The rebound stalled at a 0.8218 lower high, about 58% of the London drop fib, and price is back on the 0.8196 swing low below both EMAs.
Support: 0.81956, 0.81893
Resistance: 0.82026, 0.82183, 0.82302
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8189 session low extends the lower-low chain through the monthly-low zone
Recovery back above the 0.8203 prior low and then the 0.8218 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and negates the downtrend read
ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.6, Prices Paid f/c 77) and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read
12:02 UTC
Downtrend, pausing after London low · RSI 48 · price 0.82033
Lower highs from Asia; higher low at 0.8196 after London flush.
London broke below the 0.8239–0.8253 Asian range and slid to a 0.8189 session low near the monthly lows, as USD softened on Iran-diplomacy hopes and CHF firmed on the SVME PMI beat. The bounce stalled at a 0.8218 lower high, about 45% of the London decline. The retest held a 0.8196 higher low, leaving price compressed below EMA20 with RSI(14) near 48 late in the London session.
Support: 0.8196, 0.8189
Resistance: 0.8218, 0.8239
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8196 higher low and a break of the 0.8189 session low extends the downtrend through the monthly lows
M15 close above the 0.8218 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 0.8239 asian low in view
ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC, early NY session, could materially shift this read
11:46 UTC
Downtrend, lower high in place · RSI 38 · price 0.81959
Asian range broken lower in London; 0.8218 lower high, retesting session low.
London broke the 0.8230–0.8254 Asian range lower after the Swiss PMI beat and a softer USD tone, printing a 0.8189 session low. The rebound stalled at a 0.8218 lower high, under the 50% retrace of the London drop fib. Price is back below the 0.8203 Friday low and pressing the session low near the 0.8190 monthly low area.
Support: 0.81893, 0.8190
Resistance: 0.82026, 0.82183, 0.82302
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8189 session low and 0.8190 monthly low area extends the lower-low sequence
M15 recovery above the 0.8203 Friday low and the 0.8218 lower high invalidates the downtrend read
Asian low at 0.8230 caps any deeper rebound
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read
11:31 UTC
Downtrend, bounce sold at lower high · RSI 39 · price 0.81994
Lower highs and lower lows since London open; Asian range broken to downside.
London open broke the Asian low near 0.8230 and ran to a 0.8189 session low as the fading Iran safe-haven bid kept USD soft. The rebound stalled at 0.8218, a lower high near the 61.8% retrace of the London drop, and price is back on the 0.8200 round number with RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 0.8200, 0.81893
Resistance: 0.82183, 0.82302
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8189 session low extends the lower-low chain into the 0.8190–0.8200 monthly-low zone
Recovery above the 0.8218 lower high, then back inside the Asian range above the 0.8230 Asian low, invalidates the downtrend read
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.6) and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower, lower highs since 02:30 UTC.
London open broke the Asian low at 0.8230 and Friday's low at 0.8203, extending to a London low at 0.8189 as Iran-diplomacy hopes drained the USD bid and the SVME PMI beat kept CHF firm. The bounce was rejected at 0.8218, a rebound high below the 50% fib of the London drop and the lower-highs line, and price has eased back to 0.8207 under EMA20. RSI(14) sits near 41.
Support: 0.82026, 0.81893
Resistance: 0.82183, 0.82302
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the Friday low at 0.8203 reopens the London low at 0.8189 and the 0.8190–0.8200 monthly lows
M15 close above the 0.8218 rebound high breaks the lower-highs line and neutralises the downtrend read
Reclaim of the Asian low at 0.8230 would turn the London break into a false break
ISM Manufacturing PMI at 15:00 UTC and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read
London broke the Asian range low, swept 0.8189, V-rebound capped at 0.8218.
London broke the 0.8239 Asian low and pushed through 0.8200 psych to a 0.8189 London low near the monthly lows as USD faded on Iran-diplomacy hopes, then snapped back above 0.8200. The bounce was rejected at the 0.8218 rebound high, short of the 50% fib of the 0.8254–0.8189 drop, and price sits back under EMA20 (~0.8216) with RSI(14) near 45.
Support: 0.8210, 0.8200, 0.8189
Resistance: 0.8218, 0.8229, 0.8239
What it said to watch
Hold of the 0.8210 pullback low keeps the rebound intact; a return below 0.8200 psych re-exposes the 0.8189 London low
M15 close above the 0.8218 rebound high opens the 61.8% fib at 0.8229 and the 0.8239 Asian low
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower at London open; V-shaped recovery from 0.8189 into falling trendline.
London open broke the 0.8230 Asian low as USD softened on Iran-diplomacy hopes and CHF firmed after the SVME PMI beat. The slide swept Friday's 0.8203 low and the 0.8200 round number to a 0.8189 session low before recovering about 29 pips. Price is now testing the 50% fib at 0.8221, which coincides with the falling trendline from the Asia high.
Support: 0.82138, 0.8200, 0.81893
Resistance: 0.82214, 0.8230
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 50% fib / falling trendline near 0.8221 keeps the London lower-high sequence intact
M15 close back above the 0.8230 Asian low turns the 0.8189 sweep into a false break
Loss of the 38.2% fib at 0.8214 reopens the 0.8200 round number and the session low
US ISM Manufacturing PMI at 15:00 UTC (Prices Paid f/c 77) could materially shift this read
Asian range lost in London; session low reclaimed, lower highs intact.
London broke the Asian range on the back of the Swiss PMI beat and a soft USD. The 64-pip drop ran to a 0.8189 session low before a brief break below the 0.8200 round number reversed. The rebound is now pressing the 50% fib and descending trendline near 0.8221, with RSI(14) back at 48 and price flat at EMA20.
Support: 0.8214, 0.8200, 0.81893
Resistance: 0.8221, 0.82302, 0.82388
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.8221 (50% fib and descending trendline) breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the asia low at 0.8230, then the 0.8239 lower high
Loss of the 38.2% fib at 0.8214 puts the 0.8200 round number and 0.8189 session low back in play
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC, followed by Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the Asian high; London false break of the prior low.
London broke the Asian low near 0.8230 and Friday's prior low at 0.8203, printing a session low of 0.8189 at 09:00 UTC as CHF stayed firm after the SVME PMI beat and the USD slipped. That move then failed and reclaimed 0.8200. The rebound is stalling at the 38.2% retrace near 0.8214, just under the ema20 at 0.8216, with the 50% fib at 0.8221 next. RSI(14) is recovering to 42.
Support: 0.8203, 0.8189
Resistance: 0.8216, 0.8221, 0.8230
What it said to watch
Close back below the 0.8203 prior low reopens the 0.8189 session low and voids the false break read
Close above the 50% fib at 0.8221 and the falling trendline exposes the 0.8230 asian low
US ISM Manufacturing PMI at 15:00 UTC, then Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Asia; false break below 0.8200 reclaimed.
London broke the asian low at 0.8230 and Friday's 0.8203 low. The SVME PMI beat at 08:30 UTC and soft USD on Iran-diplomacy hopes extended the slide to a 0.8189 session low. Price has since reclaimed the 0.8200 psych level, a false break so far, and sits near 0.8207 under the descending trendline with RSI(14) recovering to 35.
Support: 0.8200, 0.81893
Resistance: 0.8220, 0.8230
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 0.8200 psych reopens the 0.8189 session low and the 0.8190–0.8200 monthly lows
Close above the 0.8220 breakdown level (50% fib) breaks the lower-high chain from Asia
Descending trendline near 0.8209 is capping the rebound; a break exposes the breakdown zone
ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read
09:46 UTC
Downtrend, corrective bounce off the low · RSI 36 · price 0.82057
Lower highs through London, 0.8200 reclaimed after a brief break.
London broke the Asian low at 0.8230 and extended the slide, with the Swiss PMI beat adding to CHF demand. Price printed a session low at 0.8189, just under the 0.8190–0.8200 monthly lows, then reclaimed the 0.8200 round number. The bounce stalled at the 0.8209 bounce high, the 38.2% fib of the London leg, and sits below the London trend line and EMA20, with RSI(14) back at 36 from sub-20.
Support: 0.8200, 0.81893
Resistance: 0.82086, 0.8214, 0.82302
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8214 50% fib and the London trend line would break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.8200 round number puts the 0.8189 session low and the monthly lows back in play
A move back toward the 0.8230 Asian low would mark a full retrace of the London leg
US ISM Mfg PMI and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC, then Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asian high; broken Friday low now being retested from below.
The drop from the 0.8254 Asian high cleared the 0.8239 Asian low late in Asia. London extended it through the 0.8203 Friday low to a 0.8189 session low, inside the 0.8190–0.8200 monthly-low zone, with USD offered on Iran-diplomacy headlines and CHF firm after the SVME PMI beat. RSI(14) has lifted from the high-20s and price is retesting 0.8200 from below, with descending highs still intact.
Support: 0.8189
Resistance: 0.8203, 0.8227, 0.8239
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.8203 friday low turns the London break into a false break
Rejection at 0.8200 and a move under the 0.8189 session low extends the lower-low chain below the monthly lows
M15 close above the 0.8227 lower high breaks the descending highs; 0.8239 asian low sits just above
US ISM Mfg PMI at 15:00 UTC and Fed's Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read
09:16 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after London selloff · RSI 23 · price 0.81916
Lower highs and lows; Asian range broken lower, monthly low tested.
USD/CHF broke the Asian range low near 0.8230 at the London open and extended through Friday's low at 0.8203 to a 0.8189 session low, just under the 0.8191 monthly low. Softer USD on Iran-diplomacy hopes and lower oil drove the move. Lower highs at 0.8239 and 0.8227 define a descending trendline, and RSI(14) near 23 is oversold.
Support: 0.81893
Resistance: 0.8203, 0.8227, 0.82388
What it said to watch
A close back above Friday's low at 0.8203 would turn the monthly-low break into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.8189 session low extends the lower-low chain below the monthly low
Reclaim of the 0.8227 lower high breaks the descending trendline; the 0.8239 swing high sits above
US ISM Mfg PMI at 15:00 UTC and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since 06:15 UTC; Asian range broken lower, Friday low taken out.
USDCHF slipped through the 0.8230 Asian low around London open and extended through the 0.8203 Friday low in a clean run of lower highs. USD is soft on Iran-diplomacy hopes, which outweighed the Swiss retail sales miss. Price is printing a new session low at 0.8195, just above the 0.8191 monthly low, with RSI(14) near 19.
Support: 0.81947, 0.8191
Resistance: 0.8203, 0.8230
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8191 monthly low extends the post-Fed lower-low sequence
A reclaim of 0.8203 (Friday low) would mark the break as a false break
A rebound that stalls near 0.8217, the 38.2% of the Asian high to session low drop, keeps the lower-highs line intact
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.6) and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read
08:46 UTC
Downtrend, accelerating into London · RSI 23 · price 0.81999
Lower highs since early Asia, Friday low broken.
London open extended the Asia-session drift off the 0.8254 high, taking out Friday's 0.8203 low and pressing the 0.8200 round number. A softer USD on Iran-diplomacy hopes is outweighing the Swiss retail sales miss. The lower-highs line remains intact, RSI(14) at 23 is stretched and the 0.8191 monthly low sits just below.
Support: 0.8200, 0.8191
Resistance: 0.8203, 0.8227, 0.8230
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8191 monthly low extends the downtrend beyond the 0.8200 round number
Reclaim of the 0.8203 Friday low would mark the break as a false break
Close above the 0.8227 swing high and the 0.8230 Asian low breaks the lower-highs sequence
US ISM Mfg PMI at 15:00 UTC and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read
08:31 UTC
Downtrend, extending into London · RSI 28 · price 0.82127
Lower highs since Asian high, Asian range broken lower.
Asia-session drift lower from the 0.8253 high gathered pace at London open. Price broke the Asian low at 0.8239 and the 0.8220 broken low, and now trades at 0.8213 under a 0.8227 lower high. USD softness on Iran-diplomacy hopes and oil below $100 is outweighing the soft Swiss retail print; RSI(14) is near 28, heavy but not extreme.
Support: 0.8210, 0.8203, 0.8193
Resistance: 0.8220, 0.8227, 0.8239
What it said to watch
Fri am lows at 0.8210 and the 0.8203 friday low are the next reference; a break exposes the 0.8193 monthly low
M15 close back above the 0.8227 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence; 0.8239 asian low is the range-reclaim level
US ISM Mfg PMI at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Swiss CPI Tue 07:30 UTC is the next CHF-side risk
08:16 UTC
Downtrend, extending into London · RSI 28 · price 0.82164
Lower highs from 0.8254 Asia high, Asian range broken lower.
London open broke the 0.8230 Asian low and pressed to a 0.8216 session low as USD softened on US-Iran diplomacy hopes, with the 0.8227 bounce high capping the only retrace. RSI(14) near 28 and the lower-high chain from the 0.8254 Asia high remains intact; the Friday low at 0.8203 sits next below.
Support: 0.82158, 0.82026, 0.8191
Resistance: 0.8227, 0.8230, 0.82388
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.8230 asian low turns the range break into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.8216 session low exposes the 0.8203 friday low, then the 0.8191 monthly low
A break of the trendline through the 0.8239 lower high ends the lower-high sequence
US ISM Mfg PMI at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower, lower highs into London.
The Asian range of 0.8239–0.8254 gave way late in Asia. London open extended the slide to a 0.8220 session low as USD stayed heavy on US-Iran diplomacy hopes, with the Swiss retail sales miss doing little to lift the pair. Lower highs keep forming under the asian low, and RSI(14) near 32 is soft but not stretched.
Support: 0.8220, 0.8203
Resistance: 0.8239, 0.8254
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.8239 asian low and the descending trendline neutralises the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 0.8220 session low exposes the 0.8203 friday low
38.2% fib of the slide sits at 0.8233, an area to watch for rejection or break
Asian high at 0.8254 caps the range above
ISM Mfg PMI at 15:00 UTC and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Asian high; London open broke the Asian low.
Lower highs since the 0.8253 Asian high, the latest at 0.8239, ran into a London-open break of the Asian low near 0.8230, printing a 0.8220 session low with RSI(14) at 26. Softer USD as WTI slips under $100 and haven demand eases frames the slide. Friday low at 0.8203 is the next reference below.
Support: 0.8220, 0.8203, 0.8193
Resistance: 0.8230, 0.8239, 0.8253
What it said to watch
Recovery and hold back above the asian low at 0.8230 would turn the London break into a false break
M15 close above the 0.8239 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline sequence
Failure to hold the 0.8220 session low exposes the 0.8203 friday low and the 0.8193 monthly low
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read; Swiss CPI Tue 07:30 UTC is the next CHF risk
USD/CHF slipped through the 0.8230 Asian low into the European open, extending a lower-high chain off the 0.8253 Asian high as sub-$100 oil and easing haven demand trim the USD bid. Price is now pressing Friday's 0.8225 swing low with RSI(14) near 28, and the descending trendline has capped every bounce, including the 0.8239 lower high.
Support: 0.82251, 0.8220, 0.82026
Resistance: 0.82302, 0.82388, 0.82535
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8225 swing low exposes the 0.8220 round number, then Friday's 0.8203 prior low
A move back above the 0.8230 Asian low would mark the range break as a false break
M15 close above the 0.8239 lower high, the 50% retracement of the Asian high decline, breaks the descending trendline and the lower-high sequence
Swiss real retail sales at 07:30 UTC and US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range break lower, lower highs since 02:30 UTC, basing near 0.8230.
USDCHF slipped out of the 0.8239–0.8253 Asian range from around 04:45 UTC. Lower highs are tracking the descending trendline off the 0.8253 Asian high, and the 06:15 bounce was rejected at the old Asian low near 0.8239, which is also the 38.2% fib of the slide. The pair is now basing just above the 0.8229 session low ahead of London open, with CHF a touch firmer on the risk-off tone from the soft China PMI.
Support: 0.82291, 0.82251, 0.8220
Resistance: 0.82388, 0.82535
What it said to watch
Swiss Real Retail Sales at 07:30 UTC could break the 0.8229–0.8239 pocket either way
M15 close above the 0.8239 asian low and the trendline invalidates the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.8229 session low exposes the 0.8225 fri ny low and the 0.8220 round number
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read during NY hours
Asia session saw a rejection at 0.8254, just shy of Friday's 0.8256 high. Price then printed lower highs down to the 0.8230 Asian low as the safe-haven USD bid keeps bleeding out. The 0.8239 bounce high capped the rebound, RSI(14) sits near 34 below both EMAs, and the ATR of about 3.6 pips reflects a thin pre-London tape.
Support: 0.8230, 0.8225, 0.8203
Resistance: 0.8239, 0.8254
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8230 Asian low extends the lower-high sequence toward the 0.8225 NY swing low, then the 0.8203 Friday low
Close above the 0.8239 bounce high breaks the Asia lower-highs trendline; the 0.8254 Asian high is the next cap
Swiss Real Retail Sales at 07:30 UTC and US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
06:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, below both EMAs · RSI 37 · price 0.82342
Asian range broken lower, lower highs since 02:30 UTC.
Late in the Asia session, USDCHF slipped out of its 0.8239–0.8253 Asian range around 05:00 UTC to a session low at 0.8230. The bounce stalled at the old Asian low near 0.8239, under the descending line from the Asian high, and RSI(14) sits near 37. That fits the digest's fading USD safe-haven bid and a mild risk-off undertone after China's weak PMI.
Support: 0.8230, 0.82251, 0.8203
Resistance: 0.82388, 0.82535
What it said to watch
Close back above 0.8239 (asian low) and the downtrend line negates the range-break read
Failure to hold 0.8230 session low exposes Friday's ny swing low at 0.8225, then the friday low near 0.8203
Swiss Real Retail Sales at 07:30 UTC lands into the London open and could reset the session range
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC is the main USD risk for today's NY session; a move back to the 0.8253 asian high needs USD support
06:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, minor bounce · RSI 41 · price 0.82383
Asian lower highs from 0.8253, low at 0.8230, bouncing into ema20.
Asia session faded from the 0.8253 Asian high to a 0.8230 Asian low, alongside a mild haven CHF tilt after the China PMI miss. The late-Asia bounce is retesting 0.8240, where the ema20 sits at the 38.2% of the Asian decline fib. The range is tight ahead of the London open, with ATR near 3 pips.
Support: 0.82302, 0.82251
Resistance: 0.8240, 0.82535, 0.82556
What it said to watch
Close above 0.8240 (ema20) and the 50% fib at 0.8242 would ease the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.8230 Asian low exposes the 0.8225 Friday low
Asian high 0.8253 and Friday high 0.8256 cap the upside of the session range
Swiss retail sales at 07:30 GMT and US ISM at 15:00 UTC could shift this read
Lower-high sequence from Asian high, small base at 0.8230.
Asia session faded steadily from the 0.8254 asian high, cutting through the 0.8239 opening low (now the broken low) to a 0.8230 session low as the China PMI miss lent CHF mild haven support. Price is basing at 0.8230 ahead of London open with RSI(14) near 32, below EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 0.82302, 0.82251, 0.82026
Resistance: 0.8239, 0.82446, 0.82535
What it said to watch
Break below the 0.8230 session low exposes the 0.8225 fri pullback low, then the 0.8203 friday low
M15 close back above the 0.8239 broken low eases the downtrend read; fib 61.8 at 0.8245 caps any rebound below the asian high
Swiss Real Retail Sales at 07:30 GMT could materially shift this read
US ISM Manufacturing PMI at 15:00 UTC is the main USD driver later in the day
Late Asia session: a stair-step of lower highs off the 0.8253 Asian high broke the 0.8239 Asian low around 05:00 UTC. Price now sits near the 0.8231 session low ahead of London open. RSI(14) is near 31, soft but not oversold, as the safe-haven USD bid fades; Friday's 0.8225 pullback low is next below and the 0.8203 Friday low sits further out.
Support: 0.82308, 0.82251, 0.82026
Resistance: 0.8239, 0.82535, 0.82556
What it said to watch
Close back above the 0.8239 asian low negates the range break and the lower-highs line
Failure to hold the 0.8231 session low exposes the 0.8225 pullback low
Swiss Real Retail Sales at 07:30 GMT and London open could expand the 3–4 pip bar ranges
ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read; the 0.8253 asian high and 0.8256 friday high cap above
Steady lower highs through Asia; early-session range broken lower.
Late Asia session has faded the 0.82535 asian high in a clean chain of lower highs. The 0.8239 breakdown below the early-session floor took price to an asian low at 0.82308, just under the 38.2% and above the 50% fib of Friday's 0.8203–0.8256 rally. RSI(14) near 22 with ATR around 3.6 pips points to a stretched but quiet move ahead of London open, with a mild China-PMI haven tilt behind the franc.
Support: 0.82308, 0.82291, 0.82251
Resistance: 0.8239, 0.82535
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8225 swing low takes out Friday's NY pullback low and the 50% fib
Reclaim of the 0.8239 breakdown level and the Asia trendline would neutralise the lower-high sequence
Swiss Real Retail Sales at 07:30 GMT around London open could shift the read
ISM Manufacturing PMI at 15:00 UTC is the larger USD driver for the NY session
Asian range broken lower, lower highs since 0.8253 session high.
Asia session ran to a 0.8253 session high, then rolled over and broke the 0.8239 Asia low, printing new session lows near 0.8231 ahead of the London open. RSI(14) is around 23, oversold. Price is testing the fib 50% of Friday's NY rally at 0.8229, with the 0.8225 swing low just below, as China's PMI miss lends CHF a marginal haven bid.
Support: 0.82291, 0.82251, 0.8220
Resistance: 0.8239, 0.82535
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8225 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.8220 round number
Reclaim of the 0.8239 Asia low would mark the break lower as a false break
Swiss Real Retail Sales (07:30 GMT) and the London open could set the next session range
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC sits just beyond this window but could reset the intraday read
Late in the Asia session, a steady run of lower highs from the 0.8254 Asian high broke the Asian low at 0.8239. Price is now near 0.8233, between the 38.2% and 50% levels of the Friday rally fib from the 0.8203 Friday low to 0.8256, with RSI(14) oversold near 24 after the China PMI miss added a mild haven tilt for CHF. Next below is the Friday NY low at 0.8225.
Support: 0.8225, 0.8203
Resistance: 0.8239, 0.8254
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.8239 Asian low turns the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.8225 Fri NY low exposes the 61.8% Friday rally fib and the 0.8203 Friday low
Swiss retail sales at 07:30 GMT around the London open could extend or reverse the Asian move
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC during NY hours is the larger risk to this read
05:02 UTC
Intraday down, Asia fade · RSI 29 · price 0.82383
Lower highs from 0.8254 Asian high, fresh Asian low printing.
Late Asia session has faded from the 0.8254 Asian high in a steady run of lower highs. Price is now at a fresh Asian low near 0.8238, below ema20/50, with RSI(14) near 29. It still holds the upper half of Friday's NY rally from the 0.8203 friday low; the 38.2% fib near 0.8235 sits just below.
Support: 0.8238, 0.8225, 0.8203
Resistance: 0.8244, 0.8254, 0.8256
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8238 asian low exposes the 0.8235 fib and the 0.8225 swing low
Loss of the 0.8225 swing low opens the 0.8203 friday low
Recapture of ema20 near 0.8244 and the descending trendline would neutralise the Asia fade; 0.8254 asian high and 0.8256 friday high cap above
Swiss Real Retail Sales at 07:30 GMT, around London open, could shift this read
04:46 UTC
Asia drift lower inside range · RSI 37 · price 0.82414
Lower highs since 0.8253 Asian high, pressing range floor.
Late Asia session: rejection at the 0.8253 Asian high, just shy of the 0.8256 Friday high, has given way to a chain of lower highs that has pulled price back toward the 0.8239 Asian low. Price sits below the 23.6% level of the Friday NY rally, with RSI(14) near 37 and ranges compressed to roughly 3 pips a bar ahead of London open. The China PMI miss adds only a mild CHF haven tilt.
Support: 0.8239, 0.82354, 0.82251
Resistance: 0.82535, 0.82556
What it said to watch
Break of the 0.8239 Asian low exposes the 38.2% fib of the Friday NY rally near 0.8235, then the 0.8225 pullback low
An M15 close above the lower highs trendline and the 0.8253 Asian high reopens the 0.8256 Friday high
Swiss retail sales at 07:30 GMT and US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs inside Asian range, testing range floor.
The weekend open was flat, and the Asia session has carved a 0.8239–0.82535 range. Price has slipped from the 0.82535 asian high in a string of lower highs and now sits just above the 0.8239 asian low, with RSI(14) near 37 and a sub-3-pip ATR. Friday's NY rally top at the 0.82556 friday high caps above, while the China PMI miss has added only a mild CHF haven tilt.
Support: 0.8239, 0.82307, 0.82251
Resistance: 0.8250, 0.82535, 0.82556
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8239 asian low breaks the Asian range and exposes the 0.82307 Friday pullback low, then the 0.82251 ny swing low
Reclaim of the 0.8250 round number puts the 0.82535 asian high and 0.82556 friday high back in play
London open and Swiss Real Retail Sales at 07:30 GMT are the first test of the Asian range
US ISM Mfg PMI at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
04:16 UTC
Flat after Friday's NY rally, drifting lower · RSI 40 · price 0.82425
Tight Asian range 0.8239–0.8253, price in lower half.
Asia session is boxed in a 14-pip range between the 0.8239 asian low and 0.8253 asian high. It follows Friday's NY rally from 0.8203 to the 0.8256 friday high, and price is holding well above the 38.2% of that move on the ny rally fib (0.8235). Price is easing under EMA20 with RSI(14) near 40, and the China PMI miss has given CHF only marginal haven support so far.
Support: 0.8239, 0.8225
Resistance: 0.8253, 0.8256
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8239 asian low opens the 0.8225 swing low, near the 61.8% of the ny rally fib
Close above the 0.8253 asian high and 0.8256 friday high breaks the range to the upside
Swiss retail sales at 07:30 GMT around the London open could break the Asian range
ISM Mfg PMI at 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.6) and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read
04:02 UTC
Sideways after Friday NY rally, drifting lower · RSI 40 · price 0.82433
Tight Asian range 0.8239–0.8253, price in lower half.
Friday's NY rally ran from 0.8203 to the friday high at 0.8256. Late in the Asia session, price is boxed between the asian low at 0.8239 and the asian high at 0.8253, slipping under EMA20 and sitting on EMA50 with RSI(14) near 40. The China PMI miss has produced no visible haven move in CHF, and ATR(14) is only about 3 pips ahead of the London open.
Support: 0.8239, 0.82354, 0.82251
Resistance: 0.82535, 0.82556
What it said to watch
A close below the 0.8239 asian low exposes the fib 38.2 at 0.8235, then Friday's 0.8225 swing low
A close above the 0.8253 asian high and the 0.8256 friday high breaks the range to the upside
Swiss Real Retail Sales at 07:30 GMT could break the Asian range at the London open
US ISM Mfg PMI at 15:00 UTC is the main volatility risk for today's range
Tight Asian range 0.8239–0.8254 capped below Friday high.
Monday's Asian session is holding a narrow 0.8239–0.8254 range above Friday's NY rally from 0.8203. The Asian high stalled just under the 0.8256 Friday high, and price has eased back toward the 0.8244 intraday low with RSI(14) neutral near 47. USD is soft at the open on easing Middle East haven demand, but there has been no follow-through on this pair, with ATR(14) compressed near 3.5 pips.
Support: 0.8244, 0.8239, 0.82251
Resistance: 0.82535, 0.82556
What it said to watch
A close above the 0.8256 Friday high breaks the Asian range to the upside and extends Friday's rally structure
Loss of the 0.8239 Asian low exposes the 0.8225 NY pullback low, near the 38.2% retrace of Friday's rally
Swiss Real Retail Sales at 07:30 GMT is the first catalyst likely to break the Asian range
ISM Manufacturing PMI at 15:00 UTC and Swiss CPI on Tuesday could materially shift this read
03:31 UTC
Flat, holding upper end of Friday's rally · RSI 47 · price 0.82451
Asian range 0.8239–0.8254 just under Friday high, lower-high after rejection.
Late Asia session. Price is ranging inside 0.8239–0.8254, just below the 0.8256 Friday high, after a rejection at the 0.8253 asian high dropped it to the 0.8244 swing low. That keeps it in the upper fifth of Friday's NY rally from 0.8203. The soft-USD tone on easing Middle East tensions has not yet shown up on this pair.
Support: 0.82444, 0.8239, 0.82251
Resistance: 0.82535, 0.82556
What it said to watch
Loss of the 0.8239 asian low opens a deeper retrace of the Friday NY rally toward the 0.8225 ny low
M15 close above the 0.8256 friday high breaks the range top and extends Friday's rally structure
Swiss Real Retail Sales at 07:30 GMT near London open, then US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC, could break the Asian range
Monday's Asia session opened flat to Friday's 0.8245 close. Price is coiling in a 0.8239–0.8254 Asian range just under the Friday high at 0.8256, despite the digest's softer USD tone on Middle East diplomacy. The latest bar slid off the Asian high back to mid-range, with RSI(14) near 47 and ATR compressed to about 3.6 pips.
Support: 0.8239, 0.82251
Resistance: 0.82535, 0.82556
What it said to watch
M15 close above the Asian high and Friday high (0.8254–0.8256) breaks the range topside
Failure to hold the Asian low at 0.8239 shifts focus to the Friday ny swing low at 0.8225, near the 61.8% fib of Friday's rally
Loss of the rising trendline from the 0.8225 NY swing low undercuts the higher-low sequence
Swiss Real Retail Sales at 07:30 GMT and the London open could break the compressed Asian range
US ISM Mfg PMI at 15:00 UTC, then Swiss CPI on Tuesday, could materially shift this read
Tight Asian range 0.8239–0.8254, capped just under the Friday high.
Monday's Asia session, now mid-session, is coiling in a 15-pip range (0.8239 asian low to 0.8254) just beneath the 0.8256 friday high. That high capped Friday's NY rally off 0.8203. RSI(14) near 56 and ATR around 3.5 pips show no momentum, and the soft USD tone in the news digest has not yet broken either edge of the Asian range.
Support: 0.8239, 0.8225, 0.8203
Resistance: 0.8256, 0.8290
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8256 friday high breaks the Asian range and opens the 0.8290 band top
Loss of the 0.8239 asian low exposes the 0.8225 swing low near the 38.2% retracement of the NY rally
Below 0.8225, the 0.8203 friday low marks the base of the NY rally
Swiss Retail Sales at 07:30 UTC and the London open are the first tests of the Asian range; ISM Mfg at 15:00 UTC is the larger risk
Tight Asian range with rising lows under Friday high.
Mid-Asia session, USDCHF is grinding higher inside a tight 0.8239–0.8254 Asian range along a rising-lows trendline, pressing the asian high just under Friday's high at 0.8256. RSI(14) is near 60 and ATR is about 4 pips. Friday's NY low at 0.8225 held near 61.8% of the Friday up-leg, and early USD softness on Middle East de-escalation has not yet dented that recovery.
Support: 0.82475, 0.8239, 0.82251
Resistance: 0.82535, 0.82556
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8256 friday high breaks the Asian range to the upside
Loss of the rising-lows trendline near 0.8248 puts the 0.8239 asian low back in play
A break below 0.8239 exposes the 0.8225 ny low and 61.8% fib of Friday's up-leg
Swiss Real Retail Sales at 07:30 GMT could expand the current low-ATR range at London open
US ISM Mfg PMI and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC are the larger risk for this read
02:31 UTC
Uptrend, compressing near highs · RSI 62 · price 0.82523
Asian range 0.8239–0.8254 under the Friday high.
Friday's NY rally from 0.8203 to the 0.8256 friday high held into the weekend despite DXY softness. Monday's Asia session dipped to the 0.8239 asian low, then printed higher lows off the 0.8243 asian floor. Price is now at the Asian range top, just under the friday high, with RSI(14) near 62 and ATR around 4 pips.
Support: 0.82435, 0.8239, 0.82251
Resistance: 0.82556
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8256 friday high extends the Friday uptrend
Break of the 0.8243 asian floor and the 0.8239 asian low flips the Asian higher-lows sequence
Loss of the 0.8225 fri pb low would retrace into the 0.5–0.618 zone of Friday's NY rally fib
Swiss Real Retail Sales at 07:30 GMT and ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
02:16 UTC
Sideways after Friday NY rally, holding near highs · RSI 58 · price 0.82488
Tight Asian range 0.8239–0.8252 beneath Friday high.
Friday's NY leg ran from the 0.8203 lows to a 0.8256 friday high. A pullback held at 0.8225, the ny pullback low near the 61.8% fib, and price has grind back up since. Monday's Asia session is compressing between the 0.8239 asian low and the 0.8252 asian high, with a 0.8243 range floor inside it. ATR near 4 pips reflects thin flow, and the pair is ignoring the softer DXY tone flagged in the digest.
Support: 0.8243, 0.8239, 0.8225
Resistance: 0.82515, 0.82556
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8256 friday high breaks the range and extends Friday's NY higher-high sequence
Loss of the 0.8243 range floor and then the 0.8239 asian low breaks the rising support from the ny pullback low
A move below 0.8225 puts price beneath the 61.8% fib of the NY rally
Swiss Real Retail Sales at 07:30 GMT and US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC could break the Asian range
02:02 UTC
Sideways after Friday NY rally · RSI 54 · price 0.82494
Tight Asian range, higher lows intact.
Monday's Asia session is coiling in a tight range between the 0.8239 asian low and the 0.8252 asian high, just under the 0.8256 friday high. This follows Friday's NY rally of about 53 pips off 0.8203. The pullback to 0.8225 held near the 61.8% of that rally and formed the swing low, and the higher-lows trendline from there remains intact. ATR has compressed to roughly 4 pips despite the softer USD tone in the digest.
Support: 0.8239, 0.8225
Resistance: 0.82515, 0.82556
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8256 friday high breaks the Asian range to the upside
Failure to hold the 0.8239 asian low breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the 0.8225 swing low
Swiss Retail Sales at 07:30 GMT and the London open could end the Asian range compression
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.6) could materially shift this read
01:46 UTC
Short-term uptrend, stalling in a tight Asian range · RSI 54 · price 0.82495
Higher lows since Friday's NY swing low, compressing under the 0.8256 Friday high.
Friday's NY-session rally from 0.8203 to the 0.8256 Friday high is holding despite the soft-dollar digest. The pullback found demand at the 0.8225 swing low, near the 61.8% of the NY rally fib, and price has carried higher lows into Monday. The Asian range sits at 0.8239–0.8252, price is pressing the Asian high, and RSI(14) is neutral at about 54 with ATR near 4.6 pips in thin early-week trade.
Support: 0.8239, 0.8225
Resistance: 0.8252, 0.8256
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.8252 Asian high puts the 0.8256 Friday high back in play
A break of the 0.8239 Asian low takes out the higher lows line and exposes the 0.8225 swing low
Losing 0.8225 would retrace most of Friday's NY rally on the fib
Swiss retail sales at 07:30 GMT around London open, and the US ISM at 15:00 UTC later in the day, could reset the range
01:31 UTC
Short-term uptrend, pausing in Asia · RSI 54 · price 0.82487
Tight Asian range below Friday high, higher lows intact.
Early Asia is holding a narrow 0.8239–0.8252 range just below the 0.8256 Friday high. Friday's NY rally from 0.8203 held its gains into the close despite the broader USD slide. A dip to the Asian low at 0.8239 was bought straight back; RSI(14) is neutral near 54 and ATR is compressed around 4–5 pips.
Support: 0.8239, 0.82251
Resistance: 0.82515, 0.82556
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8256 Friday high extends the higher-high sequence out of the Asian range
Loss of the 0.8239 Asian low breaks the rising lows line and puts the 0.8225 swing low back in focus
Swiss Real Retail Sales at 07:30 GMT could break the Asian range at London open
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC is the main risk for the NY session read
01:16 UTC
Flat in Asia after Friday's NY rally · RSI 53 · price 0.82475
Tight Asian range 0.8239–0.8252 below Friday high.
Monday's Asia session is holding a 12-pip range between the 0.8239 asian low and the 0.8252 asian high, just under the 0.8256 friday high. The early dip to the asian low was bought back within one bar, and compression since then has kept RSI(14) neutral near 53. Friday's NY rally from 0.8203, which came as CHF gave back gains on oil-exposure concerns, held its pullback at the 0.8225 ny low near the 61.8% fib.
Support: 0.8239, 0.82307, 0.82251
Resistance: 0.82515, 0.82556
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.8256 friday high breaks the range and extends Friday's NY rally
Failure to hold the 0.8239 asian low exposes the 0.8231 swing low and the 0.8225 ny low / 61.8% fib
Swiss Real Retail Sales at 07:30 GMT around the London open could break the Asian range
US ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC are the larger USD risk later today, with Swiss CPI due Tue
Tight Asian range 0.8239–0.8252 below Friday high 0.8256.
Friday's NY rally off the 0.8203 double low, aided by oil-driven CHF softness, topped at the 0.8256 Friday high. The NY pullback held the 0.8225 swing low near the 61.8% retracement. Early Monday Asia session is holding a narrow 0.8239–0.8252 range with RSI(14) neutral near 51 and ATR around 5 pips.
Support: 0.8239, 0.82251, 0.8203
Resistance: 0.82515, 0.82556
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8256 Friday high breaks the consolidation to the upside
Loss of the 0.8239 Asian low exposes the 0.8225 swing low and the fib 61.8% zone
Swiss Real Retail Sales at 07:30 GMT (London open) and US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC could break the Asian range
China PMI miss risk-off tilt could lend CHF haven support through the Asia session
Tight Asian range sitting on top of Friday's NY higher low.
Early Monday Asia session is contained in a 0.8239–0.8252 range (asian low to asian high), just under the 0.8256 friday high. Friday's NY rally from 0.8203, with CHF giving back gains on oil exposure, pulled back only to a 0.8225 swing low near the 61.8% fib before recovering. The dip to the asian low was recovered within the hour; RSI(14) ~58 and ATR ~5 pips point to a quiet open.
Support: 0.8239, 0.82251
Resistance: 0.82515, 0.82556
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8256 friday high extends the NY rally structure
Loss of the 0.8239 asian low reopens the 0.8225 swing low / 61.8% fib area
Swiss Real Retail Sales at 07:30 GMT is the first scheduled CHF risk of the session
US ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Friday's NY pullback; tight Asian range forming just under the Friday high.
Early Asia session is holding a 0.8239–0.8251 band (asian low to asian high) just beneath the 0.8256 Friday high. That high capped Friday's NY leg up from 0.8203 as higher oil weighed on CHF. Rising lows from the 0.8225 NY pullback remain intact, RSI(14) neutral near 57 and ATR around 5 pips.
Support: 0.8239, 0.82251
Resistance: 0.82515, 0.82556
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8256 Friday high extends the NY leg and breaks the Asian range
Failure to hold the 0.8239 asian low breaks the rising lows and puts the 0.8225 ny pullback back in play
Swiss Retail Sales at 07:30 GMT and ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Friday's double base, tight Asian range under 0.8256.
Monday's Asia session opened flat to Friday's 0.8245 close and is holding a 0.8239–0.8252 Asian range beneath the 0.8256 Friday high. Friday's double base at 0.8203 fed a NY rally as oil weighed on CHF. Higher lows at 0.8225 and 0.8231 keep intraday structure intact; RSI(14) neutral near 56, ATR(14) about 5 pips.
Support: 0.8239, 0.82251, 0.8203
Resistance: 0.82515, 0.82556
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8256 Friday high breaks the range top and extends the higher lows sequence
Loss of the 0.8239 Asian low exposes the 0.8225 pullback low and the higher lows trendline
Break back below the 0.8203 double base would unwind the Friday rally
Swiss retail sales at 07:30 GMT and US ISM at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows from 0.8194; weekly open holding a tight 0.8239–0.8252 box.
Friday's rally ran from the 0.8194 monthly low, through a London low higher low at 0.8203, to a 0.8256 Friday high in NY. The 0.8225 NY low held at the 50% retracement. Early Asia session trade on the weekly open is boxed between the 0.8239 open low and 0.8252 open high, with RSI(14) near 57 and the China PMI miss having little effect so far.
Support: 0.8239, 0.8225, 0.8203
Resistance: 0.8252, 0.8256
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8256 Friday high extends the higher-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.8239 open low exposes the 0.8225 NY low and 50% retracement
A break of the 0.8203 London low would undo Friday's recovery structure
Swiss Retail Sales at 07:30 UTC is the first event risk near London open; ISM at 15:00 UTC could shift the read in NY hours