Lower highs and lower lows; Friday low broken, price retesting it from below.
USD/CHF has printed lower highs since Wednesday's 0.8313 pre-Fed top. Monday's decline from 0.8254 accelerated into the London open, broke the 0.8194 friday low (the monthly-low zone), and NY extended the week low to 0.8176 as oil-driven USD softness carried over. Price sits below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 37, and the late-NY bounce is stalling at the underside of the friday low, below the 0.8218 lower high and the 0.8248 weekly open.
Support: 0.81761
Resistance: 0.81936, 0.82183, 0.82475
What it said to watch
Swiss CPI Tue 07:30 UTC (f/c 1.3% y/y): a hot print would put the 0.8176 week low under pressure, a soft one favours a rebound attempt
H1 close back above the 0.8194 friday low would turn Monday's range break into a false break
Recovery through the 38.2% retrace of Monday's decline (~0.8206) and the 0.8218 lower high would challenge the lower-highs trendline
Failure to hold the 0.8176 week low extends the lower-low sequence
US midterm results overnight and JOLTS 15:00 UTC could shift USD tone; the 0.8248 weekly open caps any rebound
Lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday's pre-Fed peak; Friday low broken.
USD/CHF has stepped down in lower highs since Wednesday's 0.8313 pre-Fed peak. The post-Fed leg extended Monday after the SVME PMI beat lifted CHF at the European open, and the NY session shrugged off the ISM beat as oil slid. Price has broken the 0.8194 friday low (the monthly-low zone) and held under EMA(20) all day, printing a monday low at 0.8176 with RSI(14) in the mid-30s; the weekly open at 0.8248 sits near the lower highs line.
Support: 0.81761, 0.8150
Resistance: 0.81936, 0.8202, 0.82475
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above the 0.8194 friday low would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.8176 monday low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.8150 round number
A reclaim of EMA(20) near 0.8202 and then the 0.8248 weekly open would be needed to challenge the lower highs line
Swiss CPI (Tue 07:30 UTC, f/c 1.3% y/y) and US midterms plus JOLTS (Tue 15:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
USDCHF has set lower highs since Wednesday's 0.8313 pre-Fed high. Monday's London open broke Friday's 0.8194 low and the 0.8190 monthly low, and NY hours extended the drop to a week low at 0.8176. Price is holding below the EMA(20) near 0.8200 with RSI(14) around 32, as oil's slide and lower US yields kept the USD soft despite the ISM beat. Friday's NY rebound stalled at 0.8255, the Friday high, between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of the week's decline.
Support: 0.81761, 0.8150
Resistance: 0.81936, 0.8200, 0.82556
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.8194 Friday low and the 0.8200 ema20 would turn the monthly-low break into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.8176 week low leaves the 0.8150 psych level as the next reference
US midterm results overnight and Swiss CPI Tue 07:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Recovery through the 0.8255 Friday high breaks the lower-high sequence
20:02 UTC
Downtrend, extended and oversold · RSI 29 · price 0.81817
Lower highs from the 0.8313 pre-Fed peak; prior low at 0.8194 broken Monday.
USD/CHF has carved lower highs since the 0.8313 pre-Fed peak. Monday's London open broke the Oct 30 prior low at 0.8194 as oil's slide and softer yields kept the dollar heavy despite the ISM beat. Price sits below the EMA(20) near 0.8203 with RSI(14) around 29, oversold. NY hours ground out a day low at 0.8179 as hourly ranges compressed, and the lower-highs line from the 0.8248 weekly open area has capped each bounce, the latest at the 0.8218 lower high.
Support: 0.81794, 0.8150
Resistance: 0.81936, 0.82183, 0.82475
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 0.8194 prior low would mark the Monday breakout as a false break
Sustained trade below the 0.8179 day low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.8150 round number
A break of the lower-highs line and the 0.8218 lower high would interrupt the downtrend read
Swiss CPI Tue 07:30 UTC (f/c 1.3% y/y) and overnight US midterm results could materially shift this read
19:02 UTC
Downtrend, fresh lows into NY · RSI 31 · price 0.81864
Lower highs and lower lows since the post-Fed peak; monthly low broken.
The post-Fed decline from Wednesday's 0.8313 high has run about 130 pips, as a less-hawkish read of the FOMC and lower oil kept USD soft. Monday opened at the 0.8248 weekly open and faded through Asia. It then broke Friday's 0.8194 monthly low at London open and extended to a 0.8179 day low during NY hours, despite the ISM manufacturing beat. Price is below EMA(20) and EMA(50), lower highs at 0.8218 and 0.8204 have capped each rebound along the Monday trendline, and RSI(14) is holding near 31.
Support: 0.8179, 0.8150
Resistance: 0.8194, 0.8204, 0.8248
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 0.8194 monthly low would turn the break into a false break
A close above the 0.8204 lower high and the Monday lower highs trendline would end the lower-high sequence, with the 0.8248 weekly open above
Failure to hold the 0.8179 day low leaves the 0.8150 round number as the next reference
Swiss CPI Tue 07:30 UTC and US midterm results overnight could materially shift this read
JOLTS Tue 15:00 UTC could reprice December Fed odds and move this read
USDCHF has printed lower highs since the post-FOMC rejection at 0.8313 on Wednesday. Monday's London session took out the 0.8190 monthly low, and the ISM Manufacturing beat at 55.5 failed to reverse it, with softer sub-components and lower oil capping the USD. Bounces today stalled below EMA(20) and the lower-highs line, with the last lower high at 0.8204. RSI(14) near 31 is holding above its reading at Friday's Asia low despite a lower price low, a tentative bullish divergence as price sits just above the 0.8179 monday low.
Support: 0.81794, 0.8150
Resistance: 0.8190, 0.82037, 0.82475
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.8190 monthly low would mark a false break of that level
Close above the 0.8204 lower high and the lower-highs line breaks the intraday sequence; 38.2% of the post-FOMC decline sits near 0.8230, weekly open at 0.8248
Failure to hold the 0.8179 monday low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.8150 round number
Swiss CPI Tue 07:30 UTC (f/c 1.3% y/y) and US midterm results overnight could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows, fresh low below Friday's low.
USD/CHF has printed lower highs since Wednesday's pre-Fed 0.8313 peak, and the post-Fed slide reached Friday's Asia-session low at 0.8194. Monday's Asia high near 0.8253 faded from the London open as the softer USD tone and lower oil weighed. NY hours then pushed through the Friday low to a fresh session low at 0.8184. Price is pinned below EMA(20) near 0.8211, while RSI(14) around 30 is holding above Friday's flush reading, a mild bullish divergence into the new low.
Support: 0.81841, 0.8180
Resistance: 0.81936, 0.8211, 0.82475
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.8194 Friday low would turn Monday's break into a false break
Recovery above EMA(20) at 0.8211 and the lower highs trendline would challenge the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 0.8184 session low exposes the 0.8180 round number
A return to the 0.8248 weekly open would erase Monday's decline
Swiss CPI Tue 07:30 UTC and US midterm results overnight into Wednesday could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.8313; lows clustering near 0.8188.
The post-Fed decline from the 0.8313 rejection has carved a clean run of lower highs, and Monday's London session extended it from the 0.8248 weekly open to a fresh weekly low at 0.8188, through Friday's 0.8194 trough, as the USD stayed on the defensive with oil sliding. Price is pinned under the 0.8200 psych handle and EMA(20) near 0.8210, with the 0.8218 bounce high capping, and the ISM Manufacturing beat produced only a brief NY-session lift that faded. Lows have clustered around 0.8188 three times since London open while RSI(14) holds above its morning trough, a mild bullish divergence on a lower close.
Support: 0.8188, 0.8150
Resistance: 0.8200, 0.8218, 0.8248
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8188 weekly low extends the lower-low sequence and opens the 0.8150 round number
Recovery above the 0.8218 bounce high and EMA(20) would mark the first higher high since London open
Close above the lower-highs trendline, now near the 0.8248 weekly open, breaks the post-Fed structure
Swiss CPI Tue 07:30 UTC (f/c 1.3% y/y) and US midterm results overnight into Wed could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows; Friday–Monday range broken lower, basing at week low.
Lower highs have formed since Wednesday's 0.8313 pre-Fed peak. The post-Fed slide carried into Friday's Asia low at 0.8194. A NY-session rebound then stalled under the 0.8248 weekly open, and Monday's London session broke through the friday low to a 0.8188 week low as a soft USD and the Swiss PMI beat weighed. Price sits below EMA(20) near 0.8216, just under today's 0.8218 lower high, and below EMA(50) near 0.8234. RSI(14) near 33 is holding above Friday's trough reading despite the lower low, with four NY-hour tests of 0.8188 showing absorption at the level.
Support: 0.8188, 0.8150
Resistance: 0.8194, 0.8218, 0.8248
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.8194 friday low would mark today's break as a false break, with the 0.8218 lower high next overhead
Acceptance below the 0.8188 week low extends the lower-low sequence, leaving the 0.8150 round number as the next reference
Lower-high trendline from Thursday's NY high runs near 0.8240, just under the 0.8248 weekly open; a close above both breaks the lower-high structure
ISM Mfg PMI (15:00 UTC) and Goolsbee (16:15 UTC) could materially shift this read
Swiss CPI Tue 07:30 UTC (f/c 1.3% y/y); a hot print would add pressure on the week low
Lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday's 0.8313 high; basing at 0.8188.
USD/CHF has printed lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday's 0.8313 high. The post-FOMC slide extended through Monday's London session as a softer USD and the beat in the Swiss SVME PMI lifted the franc. Price undercut Friday's Asia-session low at 0.8194 to reach a week low of 0.8188, tested twice today, and remains below EMA(20) near 0.8220; RSI(14) near 41 has made a higher low than at Friday's trough, a tentative bullish divergence, while the weekly open at 0.8248 sits near the 50% retracement of the post-FOMC slide and under the lower-highs line.
Support: 0.81936, 0.81879
Resistance: 0.8220, 0.82475, 0.82556
What it said to watch
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC and Fed's Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read
An H1 close below the 0.8188 week low extends the lower-low sequence and voids the RSI divergence
A recovery above EMA(20) at 0.8220 and the lower-highs line would bring the weekly open at 0.8248 and the Friday high at 0.8256 back into view
Swiss CPI on Tue at 07:30 UTC: a hot print would put the week low area under renewed pressure
USD/CHF has printed lower highs since Wednesday's 0.8313 peak. The post-Fed slide reached the 0.8194 friday low in Asia, and Friday's NY-session rebound stalled at the 0.8256 friday high. Monday's London open turned lower from just above the 0.8248 weekly open after the Swiss PMI beat, adding to a softer USD backdrop. Price is now sitting on the friday low after a marginal 0.8188 monday low, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 27 in oversold territory.
Support: 0.81936, 0.81879
Resistance: 0.82183, 0.82475, 0.82556
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8188 monday low extends the lower-low sequence through the 0.8190–0.8193 monthly low area
Recovery above the 0.8218 bounce high would stall the London leg; the weekly open at 0.8248 and the 50% retrace of the Fed slide sit just above
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC today and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Swiss CPI Tue 07:30 UTC and Tuesday's midterms are the next catalysts; the friday high at 0.8256 is the ceiling of the post-Fed rebound structure
Lower highs from 0.8313 week high; Friday's low broken in London.
USD/CHF has printed a sequence of lower highs since Wednesday's 0.8313 week high. The reversal began after the Fed decision and extended through Thursday's NY session as easing Middle East tensions drained the USD haven bid. Friday's NY rebound stalled near the 50% fib retracement at 0.8256, and the weekly open at 0.8248 capped Asia before London drove a break of Friday's low to a 0.8189 swing low; price now sits below EMA(20) near 0.8225, holding the 0.8200 round number with the London high at 0.8218 as the first cap.
Support: 0.8200, 0.81893
Resistance: 0.82183, 0.8225, 0.82475
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.8218 london high and EMA(20) at 0.8225 would ease the near-term downside structure
H1 close above the 0.8248 weekly open and the lower highs trendline from 0.8313 breaks the lower-high sequence
Sustained trade below the 0.8189 swing low extends the lower-low sequence beneath the 0.8190–0.8200 monthly lows
ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Swiss CPI Tue 07:30 UTC and US midterms add event risk into the next sessions
Lower highs from 0.8313; sweep of Friday low to 0.8189.
USD/CHF has printed lower highs since Wednesday's 0.8313 peak. The post-Fed decline ran through Thursday's NY session into Friday's Asian low, and Friday's NY rebound stalled at 0.8256. The pair drifted lower from the 0.8248 weekly open, then the London open drive took out Friday's 0.8194 low to a 0.8189 week low as the Swiss PMI beat and Iran-diplomacy headlines drained USD's safe-haven bid. The sweep reversed quickly back above the 0.8200 round number. Price sits below EMA(20) at 0.8228 and EMA(50) near 0.8240, with RSI(14) recovering to around 40 from sub-30 readings.
Support: 0.8200, 0.8189
Resistance: 0.8228, 0.8248, 0.8256
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.8248 weekly open and 0.8256 Friday high would break the lower-high sequence and the 50% fib of the post-Fed decline
Repeated rejection at EMA(20) near 0.8228, close to the 38.2% fib, keeps the downtrend read intact
Failure to hold the 0.8200 round number puts the 0.8189 week low back in play; acceptance below it extends the lower-low sequence
ISM Manufacturing PMI at 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.6) and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Swiss CPI Tue 07:30 UTC and Tuesday's US midterms add event risk into the next sessions
Lower highs and lower lows from 0.8313; dip below Friday's low reversed.
Lower highs have stacked since Wednesday's 0.8313 pre-Fed peak. Thursday's NY session break and Friday's Asia flush defined the leg down, and Friday's rebound stalled at 0.8256 (friday high), near the 50% retrace. At the London open Monday, the SVME PMI beat and a softer USD on Iran-diplomacy hopes pushed price through Friday's low to a 0.8189 monthly low, before a bounce back above the 0.8200 round number. Price holds below EMA(20) near 0.8229 and the 0.8248 weekly open, with RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 0.8200, 0.81893
Resistance: 0.82291, 0.82475, 0.82556
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8189 monthly low extends the lower-low sequence; failure to hold the 0.8200 round number would show the bounce fading
Recovery above EMA(20) at 0.8229 and the 0.8248 weekly open would test the lower-highs trendline
Close above the 0.8256 friday high breaks the lower-high sequence and the 50% fib
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC today could materially shift this read
Swiss CPI Tue 07:30 UTC is a second near-term risk
The post-Fed leg from the 0.8313 fed-day high accelerated in Thursday's NY session. Friday's NY rebound and Monday's Asia push both stalled near 0.8254, the 50% retrace of that leg, leaving a lower high. London open then broke 0.8225 and ran about 28 pips into the 0.8194 Friday low and 0.8191 monthly low zone, as Iran-diplomacy headlines and softer oil weighed on USD. Price sits below EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 32 and still above its Friday trough reading.
Support: 0.81936, 0.8191
Resistance: 0.8225, 0.8254, 0.8313
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8191 monthly low confirms a lower low and extends the post-Fed leg
A lower low with RSI(14) holding above Friday's trough would set up bullish rsi divergence
Recovery back above the 0.8225 breakdown neutralises Monday's London-open move; a close above the 0.8254 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence
US ISM Mfg PMI at 15:00 UTC and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Swiss CPI Tue 07:30 GMT is the next CHF-side event risk
Lower high at 0.8254 below 50% retrace of Fed-day drop.
The Fed-day drop from 0.8313 ran 119 pips to the 0.8194 monthly low in Friday's Asia session, and the NY rebound stalled at the 0.8256 friday high, right at the 50% retracement. Monday's Asia session held above the 0.8248 weekly open with a lower high at 0.8254. The pair then rolled over into London open as Iran-diplomacy hopes weighed on USD, slipping below EMA20 (0.8236) to a session low near 0.8220 with RSI(14) near 38.
Support: 0.8220, 0.8203, 0.8194
Resistance: 0.8236, 0.8248, 0.8256
What it said to watch
H1 close back above EMA20 and the 0.8248 weekly open would neutralise the lower-high read
Failure to hold the 0.8220 session low exposes the 0.8203 retest low and 0.8194 monthly low
A break below the 0.8194 monthly low extends the downtrend; a rejection there would leave a double-bottom base
Close above the 0.8256 friday high clears the 50% retrace and challenges the downtrend structure
ISM Mfg PMI at 15:00 UTC today and Swiss CPI Tue 07:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Double low 0.8194/0.8203 capped at 50% fib, retesting neckline.
The week peaked at 0.8313 on Wednesday's London open into the Fed. The post-pause USD slide broke the 0.8270 range floor during Thursday's NY session and ran to a 0.8194 week low in Friday's Asia session, with the drop driven by USD weakness rather than domestic CHF strength. A double low at 0.8194/0.8203 fed Friday's NY rebound, but that rally and Monday's Asia high both stalled at the 50% fib near 0.8255. Price is now back under EMA(20) at 0.8239, probing the 0.8230 Monday low just below the 0.8236 neckline, with RSI(14) slipping to the mid-40s.
Support: 0.8230, 0.8203, 0.8194
Resistance: 0.8239, 0.8255, 0.8270
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8230 monday low negates the neckline retest and exposes the 0.8203 double low
Failure to hold 0.8203 opens a retest of the 0.8194 week low, which is also the monthly low area
Sustained trade above the ema20 and a close through the 50% fib at 0.8255 opens the 0.8270 range floor
Swiss Real Retail Sales at 07:30 UTC and US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Swiss CPI Tuesday 07:30 UTC is the CHF swing factor; an upside print would pressure the double low
Lower highs from 0.8313; corrective bounce capped near 50% fib.
USD/CHF unwound from Wednesday's 0.8313 post-Fed high in a series of lower highs. The bulk of the drop came in Thursday's NY session and extended to the 0.8194 week low in Friday's Asian range as the dollar softened. Friday's NY rebound stalled at the 50% fib near 0.8255, and Monday's Asia session has faded back below the weekly open and EMA(20) at 0.8238, with RSI(14) near 47 and the 0.8225 pullback low the next reference.
Support: 0.82251, 0.82026, 0.81936
Resistance: 0.8238, 0.82475, 0.82556
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8225 pullback low exposes the 0.8203 double low from Friday
H1 close below the 0.8194 week low confirms a lower-low and resumption of the decline
Reclaim of the weekly open and the 50% fib at 0.8255 would break the lower highs sequence
Swiss Retail Sales (Mon 07:30 GMT), US ISM (Mon 15:00 UTC) and Swiss CPI (Tue 07:30 GMT) could materially shift this read
Lower high at 50% retracement, consolidating 0.8225-0.8256.
USD/CHF dropped from Wednesday's 0.8313 high, set ahead of the Fed, to a 0.8194 monthly low in Friday's Asia session as easing Middle East tensions and pared Fed-hike bets weighed on the dollar. Friday's NY rebound stalled at the 0.8256 friday high, near the 50% retracement of that drop, and Monday's Asia session was capped just below it before slipping back under the 0.8248 weekly open. Price now sits on EMA(20) near 0.8239 with RSI(14) around 48, a corrective consolidation inside the downtrend with the 0.8225 pullback low and 0.8203 double low beneath.
Support: 0.8225, 0.8203, 0.8194
Resistance: 0.8248, 0.8256, 0.8267
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8256 friday high opens a deeper retracement toward the 0.8267 61.8% fib
Failure to hold the 0.8225 pullback low and the higher lows line near 0.8218 exposes the 0.8203 double low and 0.8194 monthly low
Swiss CPI Tue 07:30 GMT (f/c 1.3% y/y) and US ISM Manufacturing Mon 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
04:03 UTC
Down from midweek high, corrective bounce stalling · RSI 49 · price 0.82428
Lower high below 0.8313; bounce capped near 50% retracement, Asian range 0.8239–0.8254.
USD/CHF unwound Wednesday's post-Fed 0.8313 high. Most of the 0.8313–0.8194 drop came in Thursday's NY session and into Friday's Asian open, as softer yields and easing Middle East tensions weighed on the dollar, before a 0.8194 week low. Friday's NY-session rebound, helped by oil pressure on CHF, stalled at the 0.8255 Friday high near the 50% retracement, and Monday's Asian range has held just under the 0.8248 weekly open, with price on EMA(20), below EMA(50), RSI(14) flat near 49 and ATR(14) compressing to ~11 pips.
Support: 0.8239, 0.8225, 0.8194
Resistance: 0.8248, 0.8255, 0.8267
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8255 Friday high and 50% retracement opens the 61.8% fib at 0.8267
Loss of the 0.8239 Asian low (38.2% retracement) exposes the 0.8225 swing low
Break of the 0.8194 week low would extend the lower-low sequence
US ISM Mfg PMI and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC today, then Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
Swiss retail sales at 07:30 GMT today and high-impact Swiss CPI Tuesday 07:30 GMT are CHF risks for the range
Double bottom off monthly low, tight range under Friday high.
The week's dominant leg came in Thursday's NY session. The haven and oil unwind plus lower yields took USDCHF from 0.8297 through Friday's Asian session to the 0.8194 monthly low, 119 pips off the 0.8313 week high. A double bottom near 0.8203 during London Friday preceded an NY rebound that stalled at the friday high of 0.8256, the 50% retracement of the drop. Monday's Asian range, from the monday low at 0.8239 to 0.8254, is pinned around the weekly open and EMA(50), with price above EMA(20) and RSI(14) neutral near 55.
Support: 0.82475, 0.8239, 0.81936
Resistance: 0.82556, 0.82674, 0.8313
What it said to watch
H1 close above the friday high at 0.8256 opens the 61.8% fib at 0.8267, then the 0.8313 week high
Failure to hold the monday low at 0.8239 and the Friday higher lows line returns focus to 0.8203 and the 0.8194 monthly low
Repeated closes either side of the weekly open at 0.8248 define whether the Asian range resolves higher or lower
US ISM Mfg PMI and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC Monday could materially shift this read
Swiss CPI on Tuesday 07:30 GMT is the CHF-side risk to the 0.8239–0.8256 range
02:03 UTC
Downtrend from week high, rebound stalling at 50% fib · RSI 63 · price 0.82496
Lower highs from 0.8313; double low at 0.8203 lifted price into tight Asian range.
USD/CHF has made lower highs since the 0.8313 week high set before Wednesday's Fed. The main leg lower came in Thursday's NY session after the 0.8297 breakdown, as tech-driven yield weakness weighed on the dollar, and it ran to a 0.8194 week low in Friday's Asia session. A double low near 0.8203 through Friday's London session gave way to an NY rally that stalled at the 0.8256 friday high, at the 50% fib and the lower-highs line; Monday's Asian range of 0.8239–0.8252 sits on EMA20 (~0.8240) and just above EMA50, with RSI(14) in the low 60s.
Support: 0.8240, 0.8203, 0.8194
Resistance: 0.8256, 0.8297, 0.8313
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8256 friday high and the 50% fib breaks the lower-highs sequence and opens the 0.8297 breakdown area
Loss of EMA20 at 0.8240 puts the 0.8203 double low back in focus; a break there exposes the 0.8194 week low
US ISM Manufacturing (Mon 15:00 UTC, f/c 54.6) and Prices Paid could materially shift this read
Swiss CPI (Tue 07:30 GMT, f/c 1.3% y/y) and the US midterms add event risk inside the week
Lower highs from 0.8313 broken by a double-bottom bounce; now coiling under the 50% retracement.
USDCHF slid about 120 pips from Wednesday's 0.8313 week high, which came before the hawkish Fed hold. Most of the drop came in Thursday's NY session and Friday's Asia session as falling Treasury yields weighed on the dollar, taking the pair to a 0.8194 week low. A higher low at 0.8203 completed a double bottom, and Friday's NY rally to 0.8256 (the friday high, near the 50% retracement) came as higher oil prices weighed on the franc. Price now sits just under the 0.8248 weekly open and EMA(50), holding above EMA(20) with the 38.2% fib at 0.8239 matching the Sunday low and RSI(14) neutral near 55.
Support: 0.8239, 0.8203, 0.8194
Resistance: 0.8248, 0.8256, 0.8313
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8256 friday high opens the 61.8% fib near 0.8267, with the 0.8313 week high beyond
Loss of the 38.2% fib at 0.8239 and the higher-lows line returns focus to the 0.8203 higher low and the 0.8194 week low
Swiss Retail Sales Mon 07:30 GMT and US ISM Manufacturing / Prices Paid Mon 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Swiss CPI Tue 07:30 GMT is the swing factor for CHF; an upside surprise would put the 0.8194 week low back in play
Double bottom at 0.8194/0.8203, neckline retested.
The week's high at 0.8313 came into Wednesday's hawkish Fed hold. The dollar then faded on lower yields, with Thursday's NY session driving the main leg down to a 0.8194 week low in Friday's Asia session. A second low at 0.8203 formed a double bottom, and Friday's NY rally cleared the 0.8236 neckline before stalling at the friday high of 0.8256, near the 50% retracement of the week's drop. Monday's open has retested the neckline and the rising ema20 near 0.8238, with RSI(14) holding around 60 and price pressing flat against EMA(50) at ~0.8248.
Support: 0.8238, 0.8225, 0.8194
Resistance: 0.8256, 0.8267, 0.8313
What it said to watch
H1 close back below 0.8236 neckline and the ema20 negates the double bottom and puts the fri pullback low at 0.8225 back in play
Close above the friday high at 0.8256 opens the 61.8% fib at 0.8267, with the week high at 0.8313 the upper reference
Break of the higher lows trendline from Friday's 0.8203 low shifts focus back to the 0.8194 week low
Swiss Retail Sales Mon 07:30 GMT and US ISM Manufacturing/Prices Paid Mon 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Swiss CPI Tue 07:30 GMT and US midterms are high-impact for the 0.8200 area