USDCHF broke down hard from the 0.8200 week high into Wednesday-Friday, shedding ~1.5% on the post-FOMC USD selloff before a short-covering bounce lifted it near 0.8127. Since then price has flattened into a 0.8066-0.8093 consolidation just above Friday's low, holding below EMA20 with RSI(14) hovering in the mid-40s. The 0.8127 bounce high marks a lower high against the prior 0.82 peak.
Support: 0.8066, 0.8039
Resistance: 0.8093, 0.8127, 0.82068
What it said to watch
Swiss CPI Mon 06:30 GMT (MoM f/c -0.1%) is the key catalyst for this read
US ISM Manufacturing Mon 14:00 UTC could reprice the USD leg
H1 close below 0.8039 confirms a lower low and reopens the downside
Reclaim of 0.8127 bounce high would negate the lower-high sequence
USDCHF unwound the week's early strength with a sharp Thursday-Friday slide from 0.8206 to the 0.8039 week low, keeping price pinned below EMA20 and EMA50 into the weekend. A gap-down Monday open at the 0.80565 weekly open has stabilised around 0.8062, with the Friday close at 0.80728 now the first cap. The soft Swiss retail sales print reinforced CHF weakness earlier but has not stemmed the dollar pullback here.
Support: 0.80565, 0.8039
Resistance: 0.80728, 0.80907
What it said to watch
Swiss CPI Mon 06:30 GMT (MoM f/c -0.1%) is the key driver for the next sessions
H1 close below 0.8039 confirms a fresh lower low
Reclaim of 0.80907 friday high needed to challenge the downtrend
22:02 UTC
Downtrend from this week's highs · RSI 43 · price 0.8062
Lower highs after post-FOMC breakdown.
USDCHF rolled over from 13-month highs near 0.8205 as the post-FOMC dollar selloff drove a sharp breakdown to 0.8039 midweek. The recovery bounce stalled at 0.8127 — a clear lower high — and price has since drifted back to 0.8062, sitting under both EMA(20) and EMA(50). RSI(14) near 43 reflects the loss of upside momentum since the peak.
Support: 0.8039, 0.8000
Resistance: 0.8080, 0.8127, 0.8205
What it said to watch
Swiss CPI Mon 06:30 GMT is the key catalyst and could reset this read
H1 close back above 0.8080 EMA(20) would ease the downside pressure
Failure to hold 0.8039 exposes the 0.8000 psych level
ISM Manufacturing Mon 14:00 UTC could shift USD side of the pair
21:02 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating after selloff · RSI 44 · price 0.80728
Lower highs into a base above 0.8040.
USDCHF was hit hard mid-week, dropping from the 0.8207 high to a 0.8039 week low on the post-FOMC dollar selloff. A recovery back to 0.8127 was sold off, and price now trades below EMA20 in a tight consolidation above the friday low near 0.8066. RSI sits in the low-40s, reflecting the flat-to-soft tone into the weekly open.
Support: 0.80664, 0.8039, 0.8000
Resistance: 0.80907, 0.81269, 0.81494
What it said to watch
Swiss CPI Mon 06:30 GMT is the key SNB-hold test and could reset this read
ISM Manufacturing Mon 14:00 UTC could drive the next USD leg
H1 close below 0.80390 confirms a lower-low and week-low break
Reclaim of 0.80907 needed to challenge the recovery high at 0.81269