USD/CHF AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Friday, 31 July 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/CHF 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
20:02 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating after bounce · RSI 46 · price 0.80845
Lower highs since Monday, ranging near mid.
USDCHF unwound its run toward 0.8200, selling off to a 0.8039 week low despite the CHF-bearish backdrop — the driver was broad USD weakness on soft Q2 GDP and core PCE. Price bounced to 0.8127 on Wednesday then faded back to consolidate near 0.808, with RSI(14) mid-range and price sitting below both EMAs. Lower highs remain intact across the week.
Support: 0.8066, 0.8039
Resistance: 0.8127, 0.8149
What it said to watch
Swiss CPI Mon Aug 3 06:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing could materially shift this read
H1 close below 0.8039 confirms a lower low and extends the week's downtrend
Reclaim of 0.8127 bounce high would challenge the lower-highs structure
USDCHF broke down hard midweek from the 0.8205 area into a 0.8039 week low as the post-FOMC dovish USD repricing dominated the rate-divergence trade. Price has since carved higher lows and stalled the recovery at 0.81269 — roughly the 50% retrace of that selloff — before slipping back toward the EMA20 near 0.808. RSI(14) has cycled back to neutral around 47 as the bounce loses pace.
Support: 0.80664, 0.8039
Resistance: 0.8127, 0.8156, 0.8200
What it said to watch
Swiss CPI Aug 3 06:30 UTC (high impact) could materially shift this read
H1 close above 0.81270 opens the path back toward 0.81560
Failure to hold 0.80664 re-opens the 0.8039 week low
19:03 UTC
Corrective pullback after reversal from highs · RSI 45 · price 0.80803
Sharp reversal off 0.8200, bounce faded.
USDCHF reversed hard from the 0.8200 13-month high on Thursday, dropping to a 0.8039 weekly low as softer US data and intervention chatter dragged the Dollar. Friday's bounce recovered to 0.8127 but stalled twice there before rolling back to 0.808, now sitting just below EMA20. RSI(14) has cycled back toward the mid-40s, reflecting the failed recovery.
Support: 0.8039, 0.8000, 0.8027
Resistance: 0.8127, 0.82068
What it said to watch
Swiss CPI Mon Aug 3 06:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close back above 0.8127 swing high would revive the bounce
Failure to hold 0.8039 weekly low confirms a lower-low toward 0.8000
19:02 UTC
Downtrend, stabilizing after selloff · RSI 46 · price 0.80803
Sharp break lower, consolidating above 0.8039.
USDCHF's eight-day climb to the 0.8200 13-month high reversed hard mid-week, with a sharp NY-session break dumping the pair from 0.82 to a 0.8039 low after soft US GDP and core PCE prints undercut the Dollar. A recovery bounce tagged 0.8127 before rejecting, and price has since coiled around EMA(20) near 0.808 with RSI(14) recovering off oversold into the mid-40s. Structure is now a lower-high, lower-low pattern consolidating above the 0.8039 base.
Support: 0.8039, 0.8027
Resistance: 0.8127, 0.8200
What it said to watch
Swiss CPI Aug 3 06:30 UTC could materially shift this read
USDCHF has trended lower off the 0.82068 weekly high, with a sharp NY-session drop Thursday to a 10-day low near 0.8039 tied to FX-intervention speculation. A recovery pushed price back to 0.8129 before rejection stalled it there — a lower high — and price now sits back at EMA(20) around 0.808. RSI(14) is mid-range, reflecting the failed bounce rather than trend continuation.
Support: 0.80664, 0.8039
Resistance: 0.8129, 0.82068
What it said to watch
H1 close below 0.80664 reopens the 0.8039 week low
Reclaim of 0.81290 negates the lower-high read
Swiss CPI Mon 06:30 GMT could materially reshape this read
18:02 UTC
Downtrend, bounce capped · RSI 46 · price 0.80787
Lower highs, consolidating above range low.
The week's dominant move was the sharp break lower through the NY session, USD/CHF sliding from the 0.8200 top to a 0.8039 low as soft US GDP and moderating core PCE pressured the dollar. A recovery attempt into yesterday's session stalled at 0.81269 and price has since drifted back to 0.8080, holding just above EMA20 but capped below EMA50. RSI(14) sits mid-range near 46 after failing to reclaim strength on the bounce.
Support: 0.8072, 0.8039
Resistance: 0.81269, 0.8100
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.81269 invalidates the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold 0.80390 confirms a fresh leg lower
Swiss CPI Mon Aug 3 06:30 GMT (HIGH impact) could shift this read
US ISM Manufacturing Mon 14:00 UTC a two-way risk for the dollar
USDCHF broke down hard Thursday, sliding from the 0.8205 top to a 0.8039 week low as the dollar sold off on the Q2 GDP and core PCE misses post-FOMC. A recovery through the NY session tagged 0.8127 before that spike high was rejected, dragging price back to 0.8089. Holding above a rising EMA(20) but capped below EMA(50), the bounce is stalling into the weekend close.
Support: 0.80664, 0.8039
Resistance: 0.8127, 0.8160
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.8127 spike high reopens the path toward 0.8160
Failure to hold 0.8066 swing low exposes the 0.8039 week low
Swiss CPI (Mon 06:30 GMT) and ISM Manufacturing (Mon 14:00 UTC) could reset this read
The dominant move was Thursday's sharp slide from the 0.8200 area to a weekly low near 0.8039, driven by post-FOMC USD selling and a suspected BoJ-intervention plunge in USD/JPY dragging the wider dollar complex lower. Price has since clawed back, tagging 0.8127 into the NY session before rejecting back toward 0.809 — holding above EMA20 but pinned below EMA50. RSI(14) has cycled back to the midline as the bounce stalls.
Support: 0.8080, 0.8039
Resistance: 0.8100, 0.8127
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.8127 bounce high extends the recovery
Loss of 0.8080 recent low reopens the 0.8039 weekly low
Swiss CPI Mon Aug 3 06:30 GMT could reset this read
USDCHF unwound its 0.8200 push this week, with a sharp NY-session selloff into the 0.8066 area on the broad post-FOMC dollar drop before basing near the 0.8039 10-day low. The subsequent bounce spiked to 0.8127 and was rejected hard, dropping back toward 0.808 and leaving price boxed between 0.8066 support and the 0.8127 spike high. RSI(14) sits mid-40s with price hugging EMA20 but capped below EMA50.
Support: 0.8066, 0.8039
Resistance: 0.81269, 0.8200
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.81269 negates the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold 0.80660 exposes the 0.80390 10-day low
Swiss CPI Mon 06:30 GMT could materially shift this read
USDCHF unwound its post-FOMC leg hard, sliding from the 0.8207 week high to a 0.8039 low as the dollar sold off on soft US GDP/PCE. Friday's NY-session bounce stretched to 0.8127 — roughly a 50% retrace of that drop — before rejecting back below 0.8090, keeping the lower-high, lower-low sequence intact. Price sits under both EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI cycling in the low-40s.
Support: 0.80664, 0.8039
Resistance: 0.81269, 0.82068
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 0.8127 bounce high would break the lower-high sequence
Loss of 0.80664 swing low reopens the 0.8039 week low
Swiss CPI Mon 06:30 GMT and US ISM Mon 14:00 UTC could reset this read
USDCHF sold off ~180 pips Thursday on soft US GDP/PCE and suspected BoJ-led USD unwind, printing a weekly low at 0.8039. Since then the pair has clawed back above EMA20, but the NY-session push to 0.8127 was firmly rejected and price closed back near 0.809. RSI is cycling mid-range, reflecting a corrective bounce inside a broken structure.
Support: 0.80664, 0.8039, 0.8000
Resistance: 0.8127, 0.8150
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.8127 invalidates the rejection and opens 0.8150
Failure to hold 0.80664 reopens the 0.8039 week low
Swiss CPI (Aug 3, 06:30 GMT) and ISM Manufacturing (Mon) could reset this read
15:02 UTC
Downtrend, bounce fading · RSI 49 · price 0.80886
Recovery off week low, rejected at 0.8127.
USD/CHF sold off hard through Thursday's NY session, sliding from the 0.8200 13-month high to a 0.8039 week low as the post-FOMC dollar long-squeeze and intervention chatter dented the USD. Buyers stepped in from 0.8055 and pushed the bounce up to 0.8127 in yesterday's NY hours, but that level rejected and price is back at 0.8089, holding above EMA20 while capped below EMA50. RSI(14) has cycled back to neutral near 49 after the recovery stalled.
Support: 0.8055, 0.8039
Resistance: 0.8129, 0.8200
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.8127 reopens the path toward 0.8200
Failure to hold 0.8055 exposes the 0.8039 week low again
Swiss CPI (Aug 3, 06:30 GMT) and ISM (Mon) could reset this read
14:02 UTC
Recovering after selloff, momentum up · RSI 64 · price 0.81262
Double-bottom base, retracing loss.
USDCHF sold off hard Thursday to a weekly low at 0.8039 as USD buckled on the Q2 GDP miss, softer core PCE and suspected BoJ yen intervention. A double-bottom base built around 0.8040-0.8065 has since given way to a steady climb through the NY session, with price now back above EMA20 near 0.8126 — roughly the 50% retrace of the whole selloff. RSI(14) has cycled back above 60 as the recovery extends.
Support: 0.8100, 0.8065, 0.8039
Resistance: 0.8160, 0.8200
What it said to watch
Sustained close above 0.8160 reopens the 0.8200 week high
Failure to hold 0.8100 puts the 0.8065 base back in play
Swiss CPI Aug 3 06:30 GMT and ISM Aug 3 14:00 UTC could reshape this read
US UoM sentiment/inflation expectations today 14:00 UTC
USDCHF spent Monday-Wednesday capped near 0.8200 before a sharp two-day selloff into 0.8039, driven by soft US GDP/PCE and suspected BoJ intervention that spilled broad USD weakness. Since Thursday's low the pair has carved a rounded base and reclaimed EMA(20), grinding back to 0.8107 with RSI(14) recovering from oversold toward 63. The pre-breakdown shelf at 0.8128 is the first structural cap into the NY session.
Support: 0.8065, 0.8039, 0.8000
Resistance: 0.8128, 0.8149, 0.8200
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.8128 opens the path back toward the 0.8149 swing
Failure to hold the 0.8065 EMA20 area risks a retest of the 0.8039 week low
Swiss CPI (Aug 3) could materially shift this read
Double bottom off Thursday low, higher lows building.
USDCHF was crushed Thursday from the 0.8200 region toward 0.8039 as the dollar sold off on the soft GDP and Core PCE one-two before short-covering set in on the Mid-East safe-haven bid. Price has since carved a double bottom around 0.8039 and grinds back to the 0.8100 round number, reclaiming EMA20 but still capped below the declining EMA50 near 0.8110. RSI(14) has cycled back to the 60 area as the recovery presses the psychological handle.
Support: 0.8039, 0.8055, 0.8000
Resistance: 0.8100, 0.8110, 0.8128
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.8100 round number opens the path to 0.8128 prior range
Loss of 0.8039 thu low confirms a lower low and reopens 0.8000 psych
Swiss CPI Aug 3 06:30 GMT could materially shift this read
USDCHF broke down hard mid-week, sliding roughly 180 pips off the 0.8207 area into a 0.8039 week low as soft US GDP and cooler core PCE, plus intervention-driven USD weakness, dragged the dollar lower. Price has since recovered above the H1 EMA(20) toward 0.809, holding a series of higher lows off the base, but still trades below EMA(50) with the weekly open at 0.8153 well overhead. The 0.8127 prior low, from where the crash originated, now caps as resistance.
Support: 0.8065, 0.8039, 0.8000
Resistance: 0.80923, 0.8127, 0.81533
What it said to watch
H1 close below 0.8039 confirms a lower-low, exposing the 0.8000 psych level
Reclaim of 0.8127 prior low would ease the downtrend read
Swiss CPI (Mon Aug 3, 06:30 UTC) is the key near-term risk for this read
11:01 UTC
Downtrend, basing after breakdown · RSI 59 · price 0.80918
Recovering off week low, higher lows.
USDCHF broke down hard from the 0.8200 area into Wednesday's NY session as intervention-driven USD selling dragged the dollar lower, bottoming near 0.8039. Price has since carved a double bottom at that low and climbed back above EMA(20), now trading 0.8092 with RSI(14) recovering to ~59. The pair sits below EMA(50), and 0.8127 marks the prior swing that capped the rebound so far.
Support: 0.8039, 0.8000
Resistance: 0.8127, 0.8170
What it said to watch
Sustained hold above EMA(20) keeps the recovery from 0.8039 intact
H1 close below 0.8039 week low re-opens the path to 0.8000 psych
A push through 0.8127 prior swing would extend the bounce toward 0.8170 week high
Swiss CPI Mon Aug 3 and US UoM/ISM data are near-term risks to this read
The week ran to 13-month highs near 0.8207 before reversing over 1% into Thursday's session, with the dollar leg lower accelerating on soft US GDP/PCE and suspected JPY intervention that dragged the pair to a 0.8039 week low. Price has since carved a double bottom around that low and is grinding back above EMA(20), with the recent session high at 0.80852 capping the bounce. Structure remains lower highs below the 0.81285 breakdown level, though buyers have twice defended the 0.80540 swing low.
Support: 0.8054, 0.8039
Resistance: 0.80852, 0.8100, 0.81285
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.81000 psych opens a retest of the 0.81285 breakdown level
Failure to hold 0.80390 week low confirms a fresh lower low toward 0.8000
US ECI (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) today could materially shift this read
10:01 UTC
Downtrend, stabilising after selloff · RSI 56 · price 0.80843
Sharp mid-week drop, basing near 0.8040.
USDCHF sold off hard from the 0.8200 area into Thursday's NY session, printing a 10-day low near 0.8039 as suspected JPY intervention and soft US GDP/PCE dragged the dollar broadly lower. Price has since based above 0.8040 and is grinding back through EMA(20) with RSI(14) recovered off oversold to the mid-50s. The 0.80852 session high caps the bounce, while the rounded base and rising lows off 0.8039 keep the recovery intact.
Support: 0.8054, 0.8039, 0.8000
Resistance: 0.80852, 0.81285, 0.81494
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.80852 opens the path back toward 0.81285
Loss of 0.8040 week low confirms lower-low continuation toward 0.8000
Swiss CPI Mon 06:30 UTC is the key near-term catalyst for this pair
USD/CHF broke down hard from the 0.8200 week high through the NY session Thursday, sliding to a 0.8039 low as soft US GDP and cooling core PCE undercut the dollar alongside JPY-led safe-haven flows. Price has since consolidated in a tight 0.8039–0.8082 band, with RSI(14) recovering off oversold but still holding below 50 under EMA20. The 0.8039 week low has been defended twice.
Support: 0.8039, 0.8000
Resistance: 0.8082, 0.82068
What it said to watch
Swiss CPI (YoY) Mon Aug-3 06:30 GMT is the next major domestic catalyst for this pair
H1 close below 0.8039 confirms a lower-low and reopens the 0.8000 handle
Reclaim of 0.8082 would break the consolidation ceiling
USD/CHF broke down hard from the 0.8200 area into Thursday's NY session, printing a week low near 0.8039 as soft US GDP/PCE and suspected JPY intervention dragged the dollar broadly lower. Since then price has consolidated in a tight 0.8040-0.8082 band, with buyers stepping in twice at the low and supply capping around the range top. RSI(14) has recovered off oversold toward the mid-40s while price sits pinned to a flattening EMA(20) and below EMA(50).
Support: 0.8039, 0.8000
Resistance: 0.8082, 0.8100
What it said to watch
H1 close below 0.8040 confirms a lower-low toward the 0.8000 psych level
H1 close above 0.8082 range top opens the path back to 0.8100
Swiss CPI Mon 06:30 GMT and US ECI/Michigan today could shift this read
08:02 UTC
Downtrend, basing after sell-off · RSI 52 · price 0.80734
Week low carved near 0.8039, higher lows building.
USDCHF was slammed lower Thursday, tumbling from the 0.8200 area toward 0.8039 as the US GDP/core PCE miss and suspected BoJ intervention undercut the dollar broadly. Price has since carved a double low near 0.8039 and ground higher lows back above EMA20, now at 0.80734, though it remains capped well below EMA50 and the 0.8129 shelf. RSI(14) has recovered from oversold back to the mid-50s as the base holds.
Support: 0.8039, 0.8000
Resistance: 0.80789, 0.81285
What it said to watch
Swiss CPI (YoY) Mon 06:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Sustained close above 0.80789 bounce high extends the recovery toward 0.8129
Loss of 0.80390 week low reopens the 0.8000 psych zone
USDCHF fell hard through Thursday's NY session, dropping from near 0.8200 to a week low at 0.8039 after soft US Q2 GDP and cool core PCE undercut the dollar broadly, compounded by intervention-driven JPY strength. Since the low the pair has carved a series of higher lows and reclaimed EMon(20), but the recovery has stalled at the 0.80789 session high, roughly the 23.6% retracement of the sell-off. Price sits well below EMA50 with RSI(14) cycling back near 57.
Support: 0.8060, 0.8039, 0.8000
Resistance: 0.80789, 0.8103, 0.81285
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.80789 opens the 38.2% fib at 0.81030
Failure to hold 0.80600 reopens the 0.8039 week low
Swiss CPI Mon 06:30 GMT is the next domestic catalyst and could shift this read
07:02 UTC
Downtrend, stabilising after sharp drop · RSI 43 · price 0.80656
Range break lower, basing above 0.8039.
USDCHF broke down out of its 0.8180-0.8205 multi-day range yesterday, sliding over 1% to a 10-day low at 0.8039 as soft US Q2 GDP and cooler core PCE, amplified by the JPY intervention squeeze, drove broad Dollar selling. Price has since based above that low and recovered toward 0.8079 during the NY session, but trades below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) recovering off oversold. The 0.8079 bounce high has capped the rebound so far.
Support: 0.8039, 0.8027
Resistance: 0.8079, 0.8130, 0.8200
What it said to watch
Loss of 0.8039 swing low opens the 0.8027 50d pivot then 0.8010/0.8000
H1 close back above 0.8079 session high would extend the recovery toward 0.8130
Swiss CPI Mon 06:30 GMT is the next major catalyst for the franc
06:02 UTC
Downtrend, basing after selloff · RSI 53 · price 0.80772
Lower low made, higher lows since.
USD/CHF broke below 0.8130 and tumbled through Wednesday's NY session to a 10-day low at 0.8039, driven by soft US Q2 GDP/PCE and suspected JPY intervention forcing broad Dollar selling. Since then price has based above 0.8039 and the 50-day SMA at 0.8027, grinding back to 0.8077 with RSI(14) recovering off oversold and price holding above EMA(20). The 0.8130 breakdown level now caps overhead.
Support: 0.8039, 0.8027, 0.8000
Resistance: 0.8081, 0.8130
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.8130 negates the breakdown read
Failure to hold 0.8027 confirms the selloff has legs toward 0.8000
Swiss retail sales and Aug 3 CPI could shift this read
Sharp break lower, higher lows forming off the base.
USDCHF collapsed from the 0.8205 area into a 10-day low at 0.8039 as a broad Dollar sell-off — soft US Q2 GDP (1.5%) and cooler core PCE, plus suspected JPY intervention — dragged the pair lower through Thursday's NY session. Since that low, price has carved a sequence of higher lows back to 0.80772, reclaiming EMA(20) with RSI(14) recovering toward 57, though it remains well below EMA(50). The 50-day SMA at 0.8027 sits just under the base and has so far contained the downside.
Support: 0.8066, 0.8039, 0.8027
Resistance: 0.80789, 0.8128, 0.8152
What it said to watch
Loss of 0.8039 and the 0.8027 50-day sma would extend the CHF squeeze
Reclaim of 0.8128 prior swing, then the 0.8152 week open, would repair the broader break
Swiss CPI (Aug 3) and today's US ECI / Chicago PMI could reset this read
05:02 UTC
Downtrend, bounce off lows · RSI 52 · price 0.80719
Sharp break lower, basing above 50d sma.
USDCHF was crushed in yesterday's NY session, dropping over 100 pips from the 0.8205 area to a 10-day low at 0.8039 as soft US Q2 GDP and cooling core PCE undercut the Dollar and a suspected-intervention safe-haven bid firmed the Franc. Since the flush, price has ground back to 0.8072 and now sits above the reclaimed EMA(20) but below EMA(50), with RSI(14) recovering back toward the midline. The 50-day SMA near 0.8027 sits just under the week low and has capped the downside so far.
Support: 0.8039, 0.8027
Resistance: 0.80768, 0.81285, 0.8160
What it said to watch
H1 close below 0.8027 confirms the CHF squeeze has legs
Reclaim of 0.81285 breakdown point neutralises the drop
ECI at 12:30 UTC and Swiss retail sales at 06:30 UTC could reset this read
Sharp break lower, now consolidating above the low.
USD/CHF was slammed lower through the NY session as the Dollar sold off on soft Q2 GDP and cooling core PCE, amplified by suspected intervention-driven safe-haven flows, printing a 10-day low near 0.8039. Since then the pair has consolidated in a tight range and edged back toward the 0.8075 session high, holding above the low with RSI recovering off oversold. Price sits back above EMA20 but well below the falling EMA50.
Support: 0.8039, 0.8027
Resistance: 0.80749, 0.81285
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 0.80749 session high opens the path back toward 0.81285 breakdown zone
Failure to hold 0.80390 week low exposes the 0.8027 50d sma
Swiss Retail Sales 06:30 UTC could shift this read
USDCHF collapsed from 0.8207 to a 0.8039 low during the NY session as soft US Q2 GDP and cooler core PCE, amplified by intervention-driven dollar selling, dragged the pair through the 0.8128 shelf. Price is now basing between 0.8039 and the EMA20 near 0.8072 with RSI(14) lifting off oversold, and a series of higher lows has formed since the low. The dominant weekly move remains the Thursday breakdown; the recovery so far is shallow, holding sub-EMA20.
Support: 0.8039, 0.8027, 0.8000
Resistance: 0.8072, 0.8128, 0.8200
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.8128 would repair the breakdown structure
Failure to hold 0.8039 exposes the 0.8027 50d sma and 0.8000 psych
US ECI 12:30 UTC and Chicago PMI/UoM 13:45-14:00 UTC could shift the dollar read
USDCHF broke sharply lower through Thursday's NY session, sliding from the 0.8200 pivot toward a 0.8039 week low as the Dollar sold off on soft Q2 GDP and cooler core PCE, amplified by suspected intervention-driven safe-haven flows. Price is now basing above that low with a series of higher lows into the Asia session, holding above EMA20 but capped well below EMA50. RSI(14) has recovered off oversold toward the mid-40s without reclaiming the 0.80807 bounce high.
Support: 0.8039, 0.80445, 0.8000
Resistance: 0.80807, 0.81285, 0.8162
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.80807 needed to extend the recovery toward the 0.81285 pre-crash zone
Failure to hold 0.80390 week low exposes the 0.8000 psych level
ECI 12:30, Chicago PMI 13:45 and UoM 14:00 UTC could materially shift the Dollar this session
USDCHF collapsed from the 0.8207 area through Thursday's NY session, shedding roughly 180 pips as the dollar buckled on the Q2 GDP miss (1.5%) and cooler core PCE, compounded by the suspected Japanese intervention driving broad USD weakness. Price swept 0.8039 and has since been carving a tight base between 0.8040 and 0.8081, holding below both EMA(20) and EMA(50). RSI has lifted off its lows toward the mid-40s but momentum remains soft under the broken structure.
Support: 0.8039, 0.80474
Resistance: 0.80807, 0.81285, 0.81726
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.80807 opens a retest of the 0.8128 prior level
Failure to hold 0.8039 confirms a fresh lower low
Swiss Real Retail Sales 06:30 UTC and US ECI/UoM later today could reprice this move
USDCHF was pinned near 13-month highs around 0.8205 into midweek before a decisive NY-session flush yesterday drove it to 0.8039 — the leg lower coincided with broad USD selling as soft Q2 GDP and cooler core PCE, plus suspected Japanese FX intervention, undercut the Dollar. Price has since carved a tight base between 0.8040 and the 0.8080 session high, holding well below EMA20 and EMA50. RSI(14) has recovered off oversold toward 43 as the sell-off decelerates.
Support: 0.8039, 0.8000
Resistance: 0.8080, 0.8100, 0.8145
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above 0.8080 session high would open 0.8100 psych
Failure to hold 0.8039 swing low confirms continuation lower
Swiss Real Retail Sales 06:30 UTC and US UoM inflation expectations 14:00 UTC could shift this read
02:02 UTC
Downtrend, bounce off lows · RSI 42 · price 0.80678
Range breakdown, higher lows forming.
USDCHF broke down hard during the NY session yesterday, shedding roughly 160 pips from the 0.8205 range top to a 0.8039 low as suspected Tokyo JPY intervention and soft US GDP/PCE dragged the dollar broadly lower. Price has since carved higher lows off 0.8039 back to 0.8068 but sits well below EMA20 and EMA50. The 0.8080 bounce area caps for now, with 0.8130 marking the broken range floor overhead.
Support: 0.8039, 0.8045
Resistance: 0.8080, 0.8130, 0.8200
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 0.8130 would negate the breakdown read
Failure to hold 0.8039 confirms a fresh lower low
US ECI/Chicago PMI 12:30-13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
02:01 UTC
Downtrend, attempting to stabilise · RSI 43 · price 0.80678
Fresh low then consolidation above it.
The dominant move this week was Thursday's breakdown — USD/CHF sheared from the 0.8200 area down to 0.80390 as broad USD selling hit on the suspected Tokyo JPY intervention alongside soft US GDP and Core PCE. Price has since carved a double bottom near 0.8039 and recovered into the low 0.807s, but sits below both EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) only back to the mid-40s. The 0.81285 prior swing marks where the breakdown began; overhead supply between there and current price remains untested.
Support: 0.8039, 0.80474
Resistance: 0.80787, 0.81285
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.80787 swing high would extend the recovery toward 0.81285
Failure to hold 0.80390 week low confirms a fresh lower-low
US ECI/Chicago PMI/UoM (12:30-14:00 UTC) could materially shift this USD read
USD/CHF broke down hard through the NY session yesterday, dropping from the 0.8200 shelf to a 0.8039 week low as the dollar bled lower on the soft US GDP and cooling PCE prints. Price has since stalled in a tight 0.8040–0.8065 band, holding just above the low with RSI(14) recovering off oversold. Both EMA(20) and EMA(50) sit well overhead near 0.810–0.813 after the impulse leg.
Support: 0.8040, 0.8000
Resistance: 0.8080, 0.8100, 0.8130
What it said to watch
H1 close below 0.8040 confirms a lower-low and opens 0.8000
Reclaim of 0.8080 needed to challenge the broken 0.8100 area
US ECI 12:30 GMT and UoM inflation expectations 14:00 GMT could shift this read
USD/CHF collapsed from its 0.8204 week high after soft US data (Q2 GDP 1.5%, cooler core PCE) pressed the dollar through 0.8130 support into a 0.8039 low during the NY session. Price is now consolidating in the low-0.806s with RSI(14) recovering off oversold, holding below both EMA(20) and EMA(50). The prior 0.8080 shelf is the first hurdle after the flush.
Support: 0.8039, 0.80448
Resistance: 0.80807, 0.81285, 0.8204
What it said to watch
Reclaim above 0.80807 would ease the immediate breakdown pressure
Failure to hold 0.80390 confirms continuation of the sell-off
US ECI 12:30 GMT and UoM inflation expectations 14:00 GMT could reshape this read
USDCHF broke down hard out of the 0.8190–0.8205 range it held earlier in the week, shedding ~150 pips into the NY session as the dollar came under broad pressure post-Fed on the GDP miss and suspected Japanese intervention. Price bottomed at 0.8039 and is now consolidating in a tight 0.8040–0.8060 band well below EMA20 and EMA50. RSI(14) sits near 38 after the impulsive leg, no bullish divergence yet.
Support: 0.8039, 0.8000
Resistance: 0.8080, 0.8130
What it said to watch
Recovery back above 0.8080 bounce high would ease the breakdown pressure
Failure to hold 0.8039 week low exposes the 0.8000 psych level
Swiss Retail Sales 06:30 UTC and US ECI/Chicago PMI could shift this read
00:01 UTC
Downtrend after range break, momentum stalling · RSI 37 · price 0.8058
Sharp breakdown, basing near lows.
USDCHF spent most of the week coiling in a 0.8150-0.8205 band before a sharp slide through the NY session Thursday, as the dollar softened on the Q2 GDP miss and cooling PCE. The 0.8118 prior support gave way and price accelerated to a week low at 0.8039 before stabilising in the mid-0.805s. RSI(14) sits in oversold-recovery territory with price well below both EMA20 and EMA50 after the drop.
Support: 0.8039, 0.8000
Resistance: 0.8080, 0.8118, 0.8150
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 0.8118 would neutralise the range-break read
Failure to hold 0.8039 confirms a fresh lower low
Swiss Real Retail Sales 06:30 UTC and Swiss CPI Mon could shift this read