Lower high at 0.8395 after the 0.8382 peak, then a tight 0.8222–0.8270 range.
The 0.8395 spike failed to extend the 0.8382 high, and the reversal back to 0.8218 has left a broad double-top shape with the 0.8227 early-month low as its neckline. Price has since been held in a 0.8222–0.8270 range below both EMAs, with EMA20 crossed under EMA50. Soft US housing and Philly Fed data and October hike odds being priced out drove the USD leg lower. ATR(14) has compressed to about 21 pips from the post-peak selloff, and a run of lower highs is pressing the range toward its floor.
Support: 0.8222, 0.8200
Resistance: 0.8270, 0.8286, 0.8300
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 0.8222 range low confirms the double-top neckline break and exposes the 0.8200 round number
H4 close above the 0.8270 range high and the lower highs line opens the fib 38.2% at 0.8286 and the 0.8300 round number
Friday's US flash PMIs and next week's FOMC decision could materially shift this read
17:02 UTC
Downtrend from 0.8395, stalling in a tight range · RSI 49 · price 0.82533
Double top 0.8382/0.8395; lower highs, range 0.8222-0.8270 on neckline.
The ~1.4% slide from the 0.8395 high came on dovish Fed commentary and lower Treasury yields. It completed a double top with the 0.8382 peak and pushed price onto the 0.8222-0.8227 neckline. Since then the pair has held a five-day range between the 0.8222 range low and the 0.8270 range high, with highs stepping lower along the trendline from the top. ATR(14) has compressed to about 21 pips from the high-30s during the sell-off, price is pinned to a flat EMA20 and sits below EMA50, so a range break looks pending.
Support: 0.8222, 0.8200
Resistance: 0.8270, 0.8286, 0.8300
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 0.8222 range low confirms the double top neckline break and exposes the 0.8200 round number
H4 close above the 0.8270 range high and the lower-high trendline opens the fib 38.2 at 0.8286, then the 0.8300 round number
Thu jobless claims, Fri flash PMIs / UoM inflation expectations and next week's FOMC could materially shift this read
13:02 UTC
Downtrend from 0.8395, basing in a tight range · RSI 44 · price 0.82425
Double top 0.8382/0.8395; neckline 0.8222 tested, ~50-pip range.
The 0.8395 high failed just above the earlier 0.8382 peak. Dovish Fed commentary, lower Treasury yields and an unwinding long-USD position then drove a ~1.4% slide back to the 0.8222 neckline of the double top. Since then the pair has held a 0.8222–0.8270 range, with three tests of the neckline. The bounce has stalled below the 38.2% fib at 0.8286, and EMA20 is below EMA50. ATR(14) has compressed to ~21 pips from the expansion during the sell-off, which leaves the range edges as the breakout candidates.
Support: 0.8222, 0.8200
Resistance: 0.8270, 0.8300
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 0.8222 neckline confirms the double top and exposes the 0.8200 round number
Close above the 0.8270 range high, and then the 0.8286 fib 38.2, would weaken the double-top read; 0.8300 round number and the EMA50 sit just above
Thu US jobless claims and Fri flash PMIs could break the range; next week's FOMC is the larger event risk
Lower-high trendline from 0.8395 is capping bounces; a clean break above it shifts the structure
Lower highs since 0.8395 against a flat 0.8222 floor.
The 0.8382 and 0.8395 peaks form a double top, and the selloff from the second peak reached the 0.8222 neckline as the dollar corrected on Iran diplomacy hopes and Fed-pause pricing. The pair has since held a tight 0.8222–0.8270 range. Each rebound has made a lower high, from 0.8316 down to the range high, and the bounces are stalling near the 23.6% retracement. EMA20 sits below EMA50 with price under both, while ATR(14) near 20 pips has compressed from the selloff bars, a sign that the neckline test is coiling rather than resolving.
Support: 0.8222, 0.8200
Resistance: 0.8270, 0.8316
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 0.8222 neckline confirms the double top and exposes the 0.8200 psych level
H4 close above the 0.8270 range high breaks the lower-high trendline and opens a retest of the 0.8316 lower high
Thu jobless claims and Fri S&P PMIs / UoM inflation expectations could break the range compression
FOMC next week (~84% pause priced) could materially shift this read
Double top 0.8382/0.8395, tight range 0.8222-0.8270 above neckline.
USD/CHF failed at 0.8395 after the earlier 0.8382 peak, leaving a double top. The roughly 1.4% selloff on dovish Fed comments and lower UST yields ran to 0.8218, just through the 0.8222-0.8227 neckline, but closes have held above it since. Price has since compressed in a 0.8222-0.8270 range with lower highs capping each bounce, sitting below both EMAs after the bearish EMA20/EMA50 cross. ATR(14) near 20 pips is well down from the selloff pace and the range high sits close to the 23.6% retracement of the selloff fib.
Support: 0.8222, 0.8214
Resistance: 0.8270, 0.8316, 0.8395
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 0.8222 neckline confirms the double top and exposes the 0.8214 window low, then 0.8200
H4 close above the 0.8270 range high breaks the lower highs sequence and opens the 38.2% selloff fib near 0.8286, then the 0.8316 lower high
Only a recovery through the 0.8395 double top high would void the reversal structure
Fri US PMIs and UoM inflation expectations, plus US-Iran/oil headlines, could break the range; FOMC next week is the larger risk
01:02 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in a tight range · RSI 46 · price 0.82573
Lower highs from 0.8395; three-day range 0.8222-0.8270.
USDCHF formed a double top at 0.8382/0.8395, and dovish Fed commentary plus lower UST yields drove the drop to 0.8218, with lower highs since. Price has since held a 0.8222-0.8270 range. The range low has held three tests on a closing basis, and the range high has capped the rebound below the 38.2% retracement of the drop near 0.8286. ATR(14) has roughly halved to about 21 pips from the selloff, and price sits below both EMAs with EMA20 under EMA50, so the pair is compressing rather than extending.
Support: 0.8222, 0.8207
Resistance: 0.8270, 0.8300, 0.8395
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 0.8222 range low confirms the double-top break and exposes the 0.8207 window low
H4 close above the 0.8270 range high breaks the lower-high trendline and opens the 0.8300 round number
Recovery through 0.8300 and the 50% retracement near 0.8306 would challenge the double top read, with 0.8395 the pattern high
Thu jobless claims and Fri S&P PMIs / UoM inflation expectations could break the range; a hawkish surprise has more room to lift USD
FOMC next week and Iran-deal headlines via US yields remain the main drivers of range resolution