Contracting range 0.8222–0.8270, lower highs vs higher lows.
USDCHF has rotated inside 0.8222–0.8270 since Monday's open near 0.8239. Monday's NY-session week high at 0.8270 has been followed by lower highs at 0.8263 and 0.8259, while Tuesday's London-session week low at 0.8222 gave way to a higher low at 0.8236 on Wednesday (wed low), compressing the range. Price sits around 0.8245, just under the ema20 and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 45. That flat read reflects a soft dollar on weak US housing data and pared October Fed-hike bets, partly offset by Wednesday's Asia bounce on firmer oil.
Support: 0.82357, 0.82223, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8247, 0.82589, 0.82704
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8236 wed low and the rising support trendline exposes the 0.8222 week low and the 0.8218 friday low
H1 close above the lower-high trendline near 0.8259 reopens the 0.8270 week high
Repeated failure to hold above the ema20 at 0.8247 keeps price pinned in the lower half of the range
US Initial Jobless Claims Thu 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could break the consolidation
Friday's flash PMIs and UoM inflation expectations could materially shift this read
22:02 UTC
Sideways, range contracting · RSI 46 · price 0.82413
Lower highs vs higher lows inside the 0.8222–0.8270 weekly range.
USD/CHF has compressed since Monday's open. Highs have stepped down from Monday's NY-session 0.8270 week high to 0.8257 along a lower highs line, while lows have lifted from Tuesday's 0.8222 week low to Wednesday's 0.8236 London low. Tuesday's housing miss drove the dip into the London-NY transition, but each rebound since has stalled below 0.8260. Price now sits under EMA(20) near 0.8248 and back on the weekly open at 0.8239, around the 61.8% of the Tue-Wed swing, with RSI(14) near 46 and ATR(14) contracting to about 10 pips.
Support: 0.8239, 0.8236, 0.8222
Resistance: 0.8248, 0.8258, 0.8270
What it said to watch
H1 close below 0.8236 (wed low) breaks the higher-lows trendline and puts the 0.8222 week low back in play
Failure to hold the 0.8222 week low turns the range into a lower-low sequence toward the 0.8200 handle
H1 close above the 0.8258 lower highs line breaks the compression; a hold above the ema20 at 0.8248 is the first sign of that
Week high at 0.8270 is the range top that capped both Monday and Tuesday
US Initial Jobless Claims Thu 12:30 UTC and Friday's flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC could resolve the contraction
0.8222–0.8270 range since weekly open, compressing.
USDCHF has held a 0.8222–0.8270 range since Monday's open. Monday's rally to the 0.8270 week high reversed in Tuesday's NY session as the US housing misses weighed on the dollar, and the dip to the 0.8222 week low was bought back toward 0.8263. Wednesday has compressed into a lower-high line (0.8270, 0.8264 wed high, 0.8259) and a higher-low line from 0.8222 to the 0.8236 wed low. Price sits at the 0.8239 weekly open, just under EMA(20) near 0.8248 and below EMA(50), with RSI(14) flat near 46 and about 45% of the Monday–Tuesday drop retraced.
Support: 0.8239, 0.8236, 0.8222
Resistance: 0.8248, 0.8264, 0.8270
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8222 week low breaks the range and the higher-low line, lining up with the 0.8225/0.8227 double-top trigger flagged in the digest
Hourly closes back above ema20 and the lower-high line put the 0.8264 wed high and 0.8270 week high back in play
Failure to hold the 0.8239 weekly open and the 0.8236 wed low keeps the higher-low line under pressure
US Initial Jobless Claims Thu 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) is the next scheduled driver of the range
Friday's flash PMIs (13:45 UTC) could materially shift this read
From the 0.8239 weekly open, Monday's London-NY grind set the 0.8270 week high. Since then the pair has printed lower highs: the Asia rebound on firmer oil stalled at the 0.8263 wed high, and a falling trendline has capped every NY-session push. Tuesday's dip into the NY open, around the US housing misses, reversed within two hours from 0.8222. That keeps the week low intact and a rising line of higher lows in place. Price sits just above the weekly open, below a flattening EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 45 and no momentum extreme.
Support: 0.82394, 0.82357, 0.82223
Resistance: 0.8247, 0.82635, 0.82704
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8236 wed low breaks the higher-lows line and puts the 0.8222 week low back in focus
Failure at 0.8222 would extend the range break toward the 0.8200 area flagged in the macro read
Recovery above the ema20 and the lower-highs line, then a close over the 0.8263 wed high, reopens the 0.8270 week high
Thu 12:30 UTC jobless claims and Fri 13:45 UTC flash PMIs could resolve the compression either way
19:02 UTC
Sideways, range contracting · RSI 49 · price 0.82525
0.8222–0.8270 box with lower highs and rising lows.
Since Monday's open near 0.8239, USDCHF has stayed boxed between the 0.8222 range floor and the 0.8270 range top. Tuesday's US housing misses drove an NY-session dip to the floor, and that dip was retraced the same afternoon. The structure is tightening: highs are stepping lower from the range top through the 0.8264 Asia high and today's 0.8259 NY high, while lows are rising from Tuesday's floor to today's 0.8236 Wed low. Price now sits at the 61.8% retracement of the Monday–Tuesday drop and is flat around EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 49 and ATR(14) compressed to about 10 pips.
Support: 0.8236, 0.8222, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8259, 0.8264, 0.8270
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8236 Wed low breaks the rising lows line and puts the 0.8222 range floor and the 0.8218 Friday low back in play; that zone matches the 0.8225 double-top neckline cited in the CHF digest
H1 close above the 0.8264 Asia high clears the lower highs line; acceptance above the 0.8270 range top ends the range read
Thu 12:30 UTC US Initial Jobless Claims (f/c 200K) and Fri 13:45 UTC flash PMIs could resolve the compression
Meta Q3 earnings tonight: AI-risk sentiment has been driving the dollar and yields, and also the franc haven bid
Since Monday's NY-session week high at 0.8270, USD/CHF has been compressing inside Friday's 0.8282–0.8218 drop. Lower highs at the 0.8263 Wednesday Asia high (wed high) and 0.8259 (the 61.8% retracement of Friday's drop) sit against higher lows at the 0.8222 tue low, where Tuesday's US housing misses drove the dip, and the 0.8236 wed low. Price is back at the 0.8239 week open below the ema20 near 0.8249, with RSI(14) near 40 and the rising-lows trendline under test.
Support: 0.8236, 0.8222, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8249, 0.8263, 0.8270
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8236 wed low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 0.8222 tue low
Loss of the 0.8222–0.8218 tue low / prior wk low zone would extend Friday's drop through the 0.8225 area flagged as double-top support
Recovery above the ema20 and the lower-highs trendline near 0.8260 reopens the 0.8270 week high
US jobless claims Thu 12:30 UTC and flash PMIs Fri 13:45 UTC could materially shift this range read
17:03 UTC
Sideways, range compressing · RSI 44 · price 0.8244
Lower highs vs higher lows inside 0.8222–0.8270.
Since Monday's NY-session push to the 0.8270 week high, price has carved lower highs at 0.8264 in Wednesday's Asia session and 0.8259 in NY. Higher lows at 0.8222 (week low, first hour of NY Tuesday after the US housing misses) and 0.8236 (Wed low) frame a narrowing range around the 0.8239 week open. Price sits just under a flat EMA20 near 0.8250 with EMA50 alongside it, and RSI(14) around 44 is mid-range, consistent with the soft-but-holding USD tone rather than a directional leg.
Support: 0.8236, 0.8222, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8250, 0.8259, 0.8270
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8222 week low and 0.8218 Friday low breaks the range floor and the higher-lows line, the area flagged for double-top confirmation
H1 close above the 0.8259 lower high and the 0.8250 ema20 breaks the lower-highs sequence and exposes the 0.8270 week high
Failure to hold the 0.8236 Wed low ends the higher-lows sequence inside the range
Meta earnings tonight, Thu 12:30 UTC jobless claims and Fri 13:45 UTC flash PMIs could resolve the compression
Contracting range 0.8222–0.8270, lower highs against higher lows.
Thursday–Friday's slide from 0.8300 to 0.8218 has given way to a contracting range since the weekly open. Highs have stepped down from the 0.8270 week high to 0.8263 twice, while lows have stepped up from 0.8222 to 0.8236. Tuesday's NY-session dip to the week low on soft US housing data reversed back to 0.8263, close to the 50% fib of the slide. Today's London-session selling stalled at the 0.8236 wed low, just under the weekly open, leaving price below ema20 (~0.8250) with RSI(14) near 43.
Support: 0.8239, 0.8236, 0.8222
Resistance: 0.8250, 0.8263, 0.8270
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8222 week low (and Friday's 0.8218) breaks the range floor and aligns with the ~0.8225 neckline flagged in the CHF digest
Close back above ema20 and the 0.8263 lower highs line exposes the 0.8270 week high and 61.8% fib
Failure to hold the 0.8236 wed low and weekly open turns the higher-low sequence into a retest of the range base
Meta Q3 earnings today and Thu 12:30 UTC jobless claims (f/c 200K) could shift the risk tone and break the contraction
13:02 UTC
Range-bound after Thursday-Friday drop, lower highs since Monday · RSI 36 · price 0.82374
0.8222–0.8270 week range, highs stepping lower into Wednesday, price back in the lower half.
Since the Thursday-Friday drop from 0.8300 to 0.8218, USD/CHF has held a 0.8222–0.8270 range this week. Monday's week high at 0.8270 met rejection at the 61.8% retracement, and each rebound since has printed a lower high, the latest at 0.8259 on Wednesday. Softer US activity data and AI risk jitters have kept the dollar heavy, and selling from the London open has pushed price back below EMA(20) toward the Tuesday low, with RSI(14) near 36.
Support: 0.82223, 0.8218, 0.8200
Resistance: 0.8248, 0.82585, 0.82704
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8222 tuesday low and 0.8218 friday low breaks the week range and exposes the 0.8200 round number
Recovery above EMA(20) near 0.8248 and the 0.8259 lower high would break the sequence of lower highs; 0.8270 week high remains the range top
Meta Q3 earnings tonight and Thursday 12:30 UTC jobless claims could materially shift the USD read
Monday ground up from the 0.8239 weekly open to the 0.8270 week high. Tuesday reversed the move from Asia through London into the NY open, reaching the 0.8222 week low before a rebound that carried into Wednesday's Asia session at the 0.8263 wed high on the oil-driven dollar bid. That high is the latest in a series of lower highs since Monday's peak. London has since faded price back below EMA(20) near 0.8251 to the 50% retracement of the rebound around 0.8243, with RSI(14) near 40 and the wed low at 0.8241 the nearest test.
Support: 0.8241, 0.8222, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8251, 0.8263, 0.8270
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8241 wed low (61.8% of the rebound sits at 0.8238) exposes the 0.8222 week low
Break of the 0.8222 week low and 0.8218 prior wk low would turn the range read into a range break lower, in line with the double-top risk flagged in the CHF digest
Close back above ema20 at 0.8251 and the lower highs line near 0.8261 neutralises the fade; the 0.8270 week high remains the range cap
US Initial Jobless Claims Thu 12:30 UTC and S&P PMIs Fri 13:45 UTC, plus US-Iran oil headlines, could materially shift this read
USD/CHF has held a 0.8222–0.8270 range since the weekly open at 0.8239, after last Thursday–Friday's slide from 0.8316. Monday's NY push to the week high stalled at the 50% fib of that drop. Tuesday's dip to the week low around the soft US housing data was bought back during NY hours, but rejection at 0.8263 on Tuesday and again in Wednesday's Asian session leaves a run of lower highs, and price has slipped back under EMA(20) at 0.8252 into the London session with RSI(14) flat near 50.
Support: 0.8243, 0.8239, 0.8222
Resistance: 0.8252, 0.8263, 0.8270
What it said to watch
Loss of the Wednesday low at 0.8243 and the weekly open at 0.8239 brings the week low at 0.8222 (and last Friday's 0.8218) back into focus; a break there turns the range into a lower-low sequence
H1 close back above EMA(20) at 0.8252 and then through the lower highs at 0.8263 would break the descending trendline
Acceptance above the week high at 0.8270 (50% fib) invalidates the range read
US initial jobless claims Thu 12:30 UTC and S&P PMIs / UoM inflation expectations Fri could materially shift this read
0.8222–0.8270 range since Friday; higher low Wednesday, lower highs compressing.
Since Friday's London-led slide from 0.8316 to 0.8218, USD/CHF has held a 0.8222–0.8270 range. Tuesday's NY-session drop to the 0.8222 range floor on soft US housing data reversed within two hours, leaving a possible double bottom against Friday's low. Price sits at the 38.2% retracement of the Thu-Fri slide near 0.8256, marginally above EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 53, and Wednesday's London-session low at 0.8244 forms a higher low above the weekly open at 0.8239, while the Asia high at 0.8263 caps.
Support: 0.8244, 0.8239, 0.8222
Resistance: 0.8263, 0.8270, 0.8300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8270 week high breaks the lower highs line, confirms the double bottom and opens the 61.8% at 0.8279 and the 0.8300 round number
Failure to hold the 0.8244 wed low and weekly open at 0.8239 breaks the rising lows line and returns price to the range floor
H1 close below the 0.8222 range floor negates the double bottom and exposes 0.8200
US Initial Jobless Claims Thu 12:30 UTC and Friday's S&P PMIs could materially shift this read
09:02 UTC
Sideways after last week's selloff, slight lower-high drift · RSI 44 · price 0.82456
Range 0.8222–0.8270 below the 50% retrace of the 0.8316–0.8218 drop.
Since the weekly open at 0.8239, USDCHF has held a range between the range floor at 0.8222, defended in Tuesday's London-NY transition on the US-Iran compromise reports, and Monday's NY week high at 0.8270, which sits just above the 50% retrace of last week's drop. Wednesday's Asian rebound on firmer oil stalled at 0.8263, a lower high, and London has faded it to a 0.8244 session low. Price now sits below a flattening EMA(20) near 0.8252, with RSI(14) slipping to mid-40s.
Support: 0.8244, 0.8239, 0.8222
Resistance: 0.8252, 0.8263, 0.8270
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8244 session low and the 0.8239 weekly open puts the range floor at 0.8222 back in play
Failure to hold 0.8222 breaks the range and confirms a lower-low below Friday's 0.8218
H1 close back above ema20 and the 0.8263 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline; above the 0.8270 week high the range read fails
Thu 12:30 UTC jobless claims and Fri 13:45 UTC PMIs could shift this read
Oil and US-Iran headlines have driven both legs of this week's range
08:02 UTC
Range after sharp drop, momentum neutral · RSI 46 · price 0.82473
0.8218–0.8270 range, slight lower highs.
USD/CHF has held a 0.8218–0.8270 range since Friday's slide off Thursday's post-PPI spike to 0.8316. Tuesday's NY dip on US-Iran deal reports held at 0.8222, a second low just above the range low. Wednesday's Asia rebound stalled at 0.8264, under the range top and near the 50% retracement of the Thursday-Friday drop, and the London open has pushed price back below EMA(20) at 0.8252 with RSI(14) near 46, leaving the weekly open at 0.8239 as the nearest pivot.
Support: 0.8239, 0.8222, 0.8200
Resistance: 0.8252, 0.8270, 0.8300
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8222 range low breaks the double-low base and exposes the 0.8200 round number
Close above the 0.8270 range top and the lower-highs line opens the 0.8300 round number
Holding below EMA(20) at 0.8252 keeps the range's lower half in play toward the weekly open
US Jobless Claims Thu 12:30 UTC and PMIs Fri 13:45 UTC, plus US-Iran headlines via oil and yields, could break the range
0.8222–0.8270 range; lower highs vs higher lows since Tuesday.
USDCHF has rotated inside a 0.8222–0.8270 band since Sunday's 0.8239 open. Monday's London-NY rally stalled at the 0.8270 week high, and Tuesday's slide into the NY open was rejected just above Friday's 0.8218 prior low. Price now sits on converged EMA(20)/EMA(50) near 0.8254 with RSI(14) flat around 51, while Wednesday's Asia high at 0.8263 marks a lower high as oil-driven safe-haven USD demand offsets weak US housing data, with lower highs and higher lows compressing the range and ATR(14) down to ~8 pips.
Support: 0.8244, 0.82223, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.82635, 0.82704, 0.8300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8263 lower high and 0.8270 week high breaks the lower-highs line and opens the 0.8300 round number
Failure to hold the 0.8244 late-tue low exposes the 0.8222 week low; a close below the 0.8218 prior low would mark a range break
Thu 12:30 UTC US Initial Jobless Claims and Fri 13:45 UTC S&P Global PMIs could materially shift this read
US-Iran/Hormuz headlines moving oil remain an unscheduled two-way risk to the compression
06:02 UTC
Range-bound, flat after Thursday's drop · RSI 53 · price 0.82572
Contracting 0.8222–0.8270 range: lower highs vs higher lows.
After Thursday's NY-session slide from 0.8316 to Friday's 0.8218 low, USD/CHF has rotated inside a 0.8222–0.8270 band all week. Price is now pinned to a flat EMA(20) near 0.8254, with RSI(14) at 53. Tuesday's NY-hours dip to the 0.8222 week low on Iran-deal hopes and the Pending Home Sales miss was fully reversed. Asia buying on firmer oil then stalled at 0.8263, a lower high beneath Monday's 0.8270 week high, leaving price at the 38.2% retrace of the thu-fri drop with the range compressing.
Support: 0.8254, 0.8244, 0.8222
Resistance: 0.8263, 0.8270, 0.8300
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the 0.8270 week high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 0.8300 round number
Loss of the 0.8244 Asian low exposes the 0.8222 week low and the higher-lows line from Friday
A close below 0.8222 ends the range read and the higher-lows structure
US-Iran/Hormuz headlines moving oil and yields could materially shift this read ahead of Thursday's jobless claims (f/c 200K)
0.8218–0.8270 range; double low below, lower high above.
USDCHF has held a 0.8218–0.8270 range since Friday's low, which ended the slide from Thursday's 0.8316 high as the dollar eased on Fed-pause and Iran-diplomacy headlines. Tuesday's London-led drop to 0.8222 was reclaimed during NY hours as 10y yields held near 5.12%, forming a potential double low beneath the Monday high at 0.8270, while Wednesday's Asian peak at 0.8264 marks a lower high. Price is pinned on EMA(20) and EMA(50) near the 38.2% retracement at 0.8255, and RSI(14) at 48 fits the flat range.
Support: 0.8254, 0.8239, 0.8222
Resistance: 0.8264, 0.8270, 0.8279
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8270 monday high completes the double bottom and opens the 61.8% fib at 0.8279
Failure to hold the weekly open at 0.8239 shifts focus back to the 0.8222 double low
Break below 0.8218 invalidates the double low and resumes the slide from 0.8316
US-Iran headlines and Thu 12:30 UTC jobless claims could move yields and break the range
04:02 UTC
Neutral, ranging after Thursday's drop · RSI 49 · price 0.82548
Thursday's ~98-pip slide from 0.8316 bottomed at 0.8218 on Friday, and the pair has since held a 0.8222–0.8270 range. Monday's NY-session bounce stalled at the week high, which sits on the 50% retracement of that drop, as yields firmed. Tuesday's dip into the first hour of NY reversed from the range low, leaving a tentative double bottom with Friday's low beneath the 0.8270 neckline. Price now sits on the 38.2% level near 0.8255, flat on both EMAs with RSI(14) near 49, and a lower high at 0.8263 is capping the Asia session on Iran-driven USD softness.
Support: 0.8239, 0.8222
Resistance: 0.8263, 0.8270, 0.8279
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8270 week high completes the double bottom and exposes the 61.8% fib at 0.8279
Break below the 0.8222 range low and Friday's 0.8218 voids the double bottom and resumes Thursday's downleg
Loss of the 0.8239 weekly open puts the range low back in focus
Lower-high trendline from Monday's high is still capping rallies; a break above it shifts the range toward its top
US-Iran headlines and the 10y yield near 5.12% are the main swing factors; Thursday's 12:30 UTC jobless claims could also shift this read
03:02 UTC
Range after Thu-Fri selloff, mild recovery · RSI 54 · price 0.82584
0.8220-0.8270 range since Friday; double bottom at the range low, lower highs above.
The post-PPI spike to the Thu high at 0.8316 reversed into a near-100-pip slide to 0.8218 on Friday as yields dropped. Since the week opened at 0.8239 the pair has held a 0.8220-0.8270 range. Tuesday's London-NY dip on Iran-deal optimism and soft housing data stalled at 0.8222, forming a double bottom with Friday's range low, and early NY hours produced a sharp rebound back above the ema20. Price is now sitting at the 38.2% retracement of the Thu-Fri drop, with a lower high at 0.8263 under the 0.8270 Monday high and RSI(14) flat in the mid-50s.
Support: 0.8253, 0.8239, 0.8220
Resistance: 0.8263, 0.8270, 0.8316
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8220 range low breaks the double bottom and confirms a lower-low below Friday's 0.8218
H1 close above the 0.8270 Monday high clears the lower-high sequence and the 50% fib, opening the path toward the Thu high at 0.8316
Loss of the ema20 at 0.8253 puts the weekly open at 0.8239 back in focus
US-Iran headlines and Thu 12:30 UTC jobless claims could shift yields and break the range
02:02 UTC
Range after Thursday-Friday selloff, recovering toward range top · RSI 57 · price 0.82612
0.8222–0.8270 weekly range above Friday's 0.8218 low; higher low off Tuesday.
USD/CHF fell from Thursday's 0.8316 thu high to 0.8218 on Friday as dovish Fed remarks pulled US yields lower. This week has been a 0.8222–0.8270 range. Tuesday's dip to 0.8222, near Friday's low, met demand during NY hours, which leaves a potential double bottom with the 0.8270 week high as its neckline, close to the 50% retracement of the Thursday-Friday drop. Price has since built rising lows into Asia, holding above the ema20 near 0.8253 and the 0.8239 week open, with RSI(14) at 57.
Support: 0.8253, 0.8239, 0.8222
Resistance: 0.8270, 0.8282, 0.8316
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8270 week high confirms the double bottom and clears the 50% retrace, exposing the 0.8282 friday high
Loss of the ema20 and the rising lows line, then the 0.8239 week open, returns focus to the 0.8222 week low; a break below 0.8218 negates the double bottom
US-Iran deal headlines and the US 10y around 5.13% remain the main swing factor for USD within this range
Thu 12:30 UTC Initial Jobless Claims (f/c 200K) is the next scheduled US risk to the range read
01:02 UTC
Sideways after last week's selloff, rebounding off range lows · RSI 60 · price 0.82585
0.8222–0.8270 range since Friday; higher low attempt above EMA(20).
From the 0.8239 weekly open, the pair rallied into Monday's NY session as US yields rose. Supply capped it at the 0.8270 week high, first in Monday's NY session and again in Tuesday's Asian session, which roughly marks the 50% retracement of last Thursday-Friday's 0.8316–0.8218 drop. Tuesday's slide on broad USD softness from Iran-deal hopes stalled at the 0.8222 week low just above Friday's 0.8218. Demand at that level produced a rebound through the NY session to a 0.8263 lower high. Price now sits above EMA(20) near 0.8252, with RSI(14) near 60 and hourly ranges compressed to about 10 pips.
Support: 0.8252, 0.8239, 0.8222
Resistance: 0.8263, 0.8270, 0.8300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8270 week high clears the double cap and completes the double bottom, with the 0.8300 round number next
Failure at the 0.8263 lower high keeps the range intact and leaves the 0.8270 cap respected
Slip back below ema20 (0.8252) and the 0.8239 weekly open returns price to the range middle
A break of the 0.8222 week low and Friday's 0.8218 voids the double bottom and confirms a fresh leg lower
US-Iran deal headlines and the US 10y yield around 5.13% remain the main swing drivers; Thursday's 12:30 UTC jobless claims are the next scheduled US data
0.8218–0.8270 range since Friday, equal lows near 0.8220.
Since Thursday's 0.8316 high faded in NY hours, the pair has held a 0.8218–0.8270 range. Tuesday's London-session slide stalled at 0.8222, forming a double bottom with Friday's low, before NY hours lifted price back to the Tue NY high at 0.8263 as Iran-deal oil weakness and soft US housing kept the dollar heavy without breaking the floor. Price now sits at the 38.2% fib of the Thursday–Friday drop, marginally above EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) neutral near 52, while the late Tue low at 0.8244 and the weekly open at 0.8239 sit underneath and the Monday high at 0.8270 aligns with the 50% fib.
Support: 0.8244, 0.8239, 0.8220
Resistance: 0.8263, 0.8270, 0.8316
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8270 Monday high confirms the double bottom and exposes the 0.8316 Thu high
Failure to hold the 0.8220 double bottom floor breaks the range and the 0.8225 neckline flagged in the digest
Slip back below the late Tue low at 0.8244 and the weekly open at 0.8239 returns price to the range floor
US-Iran deal headlines and the US 10y around 5.12% remain the main swing factor for USD
Thu jobless claims (12:30 UTC) and Fri S&P Global PMIs (13:45 UTC) could materially shift this read