21:03 UTC
Uptrend, stalling below 0.8298 · RSI 66 · price 0.82857
Higher highs and higher lows since 0.8052; tight consolidation 0.8271–0.8298.
USDCHF has printed higher lows at 0.8067, 0.8153 and 0.8183 along a rising higher-lows trendline, with the Fed-SNB rate gap and the dovish SNB hold driving the break above the 0.8264 breakout level. Price has since compressed into a 0.8271–0.8298 box, with three tests of the 0.8298 swing high capping it and ATR(14) easing to about 21 pips. Price holds above both EMA20 and EMA50, and the 0.8264 breakout level has not been retested.
Support: 0.8264, 0.8227, 0.8183
Resistance: 0.8298, 0.8330
What it said to watch
- H4 close above the 0.8298 swing high opens the 0.8305–0.8330 cap zone
- Failure to hold the 0.8264 breakout level puts the fib 61.8 retracement at 0.8227 in play
- A break below the 0.8183 swing low and the higher-lows trendline invalidates the uptrend read
- Wed ADP/PCE and Thu Swiss CPI could materially shift this read given the stretched rally