Higher highs / higher lows since the 0.8052 low; broke above the 0.8263 prior high.
Higher-high / higher-low sequence intact since the 0.8052 low, with the pair clearing the 0.8263 prior high after the SNB softened its FX-intervention language and Fed hike odds pushed above 70%. The latest higher low at 0.8271 sits on a rising trendline from 0.8183, and price is holding just under the 0.83275 swing high with EMA20 above EMA50. ATR(14) near 20 pips shows the advance grinding in small bars rather than expanding, while RSI sits in the high 60s after a four-week run.
Support: 0.8271, 0.8263, 0.8229
Resistance: 0.83275, 0.8350
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 0.8271 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 0.8263 prior high for a retest
Loss of 0.8263 and the higher low at 0.8229 would put the fib 50% retrace of the last leg into play
Acceptance above the 0.83275 swing high opens the 0.8350 round number
US JOLTS (Tue) and ADP (Wed) could shift Fed hike pricing and this read
Swiss CPI Thu Oct 1 06:30 UTC: a hot print is the main risk to the uptrend structure
Higher highs and higher lows since the 0.8067 swing low.
Higher-low sequence intact from the 0.8067 swing low along the rising trendline. The pair cleared the old 0.8264 yearly high after the SNB's dovish hold, then built a 0.8271–0.8301 range last week. That range top gave way on Monday, and price printed a 0.83275 swing high on a widening Fed-SNB rate gap. RSI is in the low 70s with ATR near 19 pips, so the move is stretched rather than compressing, and the 0.8350 round number and 0.8400 psych level sit overhead.
Support: 0.8298, 0.8271, 0.8264
Resistance: 0.83275, 0.8350, 0.8400
What it said to watch
H4 close back below the 0.8298 range top would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 0.8271 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence; the 38.2% fib sits near 0.8272
Acceptance above the 0.83275 swing high opens the 0.8350 round number, with 0.8400 psych beyond
Tuesday's JOLTS and heavy Fedspeak, then Swiss CPI Thu 06:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Retest of the old 0.8264 yearly high would test whether the breakout holds
Higher highs and higher lows since the early-month 0.8052 low.
Higher-high, higher-low sequence intact since the early-month low, with a clean higher-low line through 0.8067 and the 0.8183 swing low. Price cleared the 0.8298 prior high, which capped the pair for most of last week, and printed a 0.8315 16-mth high, just under the 0.8305–0.8330 cap zone. The move comes as CHF weakens after the dovish SNB hold at 0% and Fed October hike odds hold above 70%. ATR(14) near 21 pips shows a steady grind rather than a blow-off, and the latest impulse from 0.8183 is the leg to monitor for any pullback.
Support: 0.8298, 0.8264, 0.8183
Resistance: 0.8315, 0.8330
What it said to watch
H4 close back below the 0.8298 prior high would mark the breakout as a false break
Acceptance above the 0.8330 cap zone extends the higher-high sequence
Loss of 0.8264, the old yearly high, would bring the higher-low line and the 0.8183 swing low into view
Fed's Bowman and Cook today and US JOLTS on Tuesday could shift Fed hike pricing
Swiss CPI on Thursday and US PCE/NFP later this week could materially shift this read
Higher-low structure has held since the 0.8067 base, with the dovish SNB hold driving a break of the 0.8264 prior high and a new swing high at 0.8301 as CHF extended its funding-currency slide. Price has since compressed in a 0.8265–0.8301 band just beneath the 0.8305–0.8330 resist zone. ATR(14) has eased to about 21 pips, and EMA20 remains above EMA50, with price above both.
Support: 0.8265, 0.8242, 0.8183
Resistance: 0.8301, 0.8330, 0.8400
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.8330 resist zone extends the higher-high sequence toward the 0.8400 psych level
Failure to hold the 0.8265 prior high returns price to the breakout base and exposes the fib 50% at 0.8242
Break below the 0.8183 swing low and the higher-low trendline invalidates the uptrend structure
US ADP and PCE on Wednesday, then Swiss CPI Thursday 06:30 UTC, could materially shift this read