Higher lows since Thursday's SNB spike; tight range 0.8304–0.8328.
The H1 uptrend dates from Thursday's SNB-driven spike off 0.8229, with the dovish hold and October Fed hike odds above 70% extending higher lows into Monday. Monday's London and NY sessions carried price to the 0.8328 week high. The NY pullback found demand at the 0.8304 NY low, which sits on the 23.6% level of the SNB leg fib. Price is now compressing around EMA(20) near 0.8315, with RSI(14) cooled to about 58.
Support: 0.8315, 0.8304, 0.8278
Resistance: 0.8328, 0.8350
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 0.8328 week high moves price into the 0.8330 cap zone flagged in the digest, with the 0.8350 round number next.
Failure to hold the 0.8304 NY low breaks the higher-lows sequence and exposes the weekly open at 0.8278, which coincides with the 50% level of the SNB leg fib.
Repeated H1 closes below EMA(20) at 0.8315 would turn the pause into a deeper pullback read.
Tuesday's 14:00 UTC JOLTS and heavy Fedspeak, then Wednesday's 12:15 UTC ADP, could materially shift this read.
22:02 UTC
Uptrend, momentum flattening near week high · RSI 60 · price 0.83198
Higher lows since Monday open, consolidating under 0.8327 week high.
USD/CHF has stepped higher since Thursday's dovish SNB hold drove a 50-pip SNB impulse off 0.8229 in the European morning. Monday added a week high at 0.8327 during NY hours as the US 10-year hit 5.27%. Since the weekly open at 0.8278, lows have ratcheted higher along the Monday trendline. The NY-session dip to the 0.8304 ny low was absorbed back above EMA(20), with RSI(14) holding near 60 rather than pushing to fresh extremes.
Support: 0.83155, 0.83039, 0.82777
Resistance: 0.83275, 0.8330
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8304 ny low breaks the Monday trendline and the higher-low sequence, exposing the weekly open at 0.8278 and the 38.2% of the SNB impulse near 0.8290
Acceptance above the 0.8327 week high moves price into the 0.8305–0.8330 cap zone flagged as overbought; a close above 0.8330 invalidates the cap read
Tuesday's JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC plus heavy Fedspeak, then Wednesday's ADP, could materially shift this read
Swiss CPI on Thursday 06:30 UTC: a hot print is the main CHF-side risk to the ema20 and trendline support
21:04 UTC
Uptrend, extended near week high · RSI 67 · price 0.83196
Higher highs and higher lows; break above Thu–Fri range, now consolidating 0.8304–0.8328.
Higher lows since Wednesday's 0.8198 base. Thursday's dovish SNB hold drove the main leg, and Monday cleared the Thu–Fri range top at 0.8298 into London open as Fed October hike odds pushed past 70%. The week high at 0.8328 printed in the first hour of NY before a dip to the 0.8304 NY low recovered above EMA(20) near 0.8311, with RSI(14) cooling to ~67 from the mid-70s; the weekly open at 0.8277 sits at the 38.2% retrace of the Wed–Mon impulse.
Support: 0.83039, 0.8298, 0.82777
Resistance: 0.83275
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 0.8298 range top returns price to the Thu–Fri range
Break of the 0.8304 NY low undercuts the higher-lows trendline and exposes the 0.8277 weekly open
H1 close above the 0.8328 week high extends the uptrend into fresh 16-month highs
US JOLTS and Consumer Confidence Tue 14:00 UTC, plus Waller at 19:00 UTC, could shift Fed hike odds and this read
Higher highs and higher lows; break of Friday's range held on the NY pullback.
USD/CHF has printed higher highs since Tuesday. Thursday's dovish SNB hold drove the break of the 0.8263 yearly high, and Monday's session cleared the 0.8298 Friday high on Fed-hike repricing, reaching a 0.8327 Monday high during NY hours. Iran sanctions-relief headlines trimmed the advance to a 0.8304 NY low, which held above the Friday high, near the 38.2–50% fib of Monday's leg and on the Monday higher lows. Price is back above EMA(20) near 0.8310, with RSI(14) near 69.
Support: 0.8304, 0.8298, 0.8278
Resistance: 0.83275, 0.8350
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8327 Monday high opens the path to the 0.8350 round number
Break below the 0.8304 NY low and the Monday higher lows trendline puts the 0.8298 Friday high retest in question
Failure to hold the 0.8298 Friday high turns the breakout into a false break and reopens the weekly open at 0.8278
Tue JOLTS 14:00 UTC and the Williams/Waller Fedspeak, plus US-Iran talk headlines, could materially shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows since Wednesday; Monday breakout through 0.8300 holding.
The impulse from Wednesday's 0.8196 low stepped up on Thursday's dovish SNB hold, which drove a 30-pip hourly bar. Since Monday's week open near 0.8278, London lifted price through the 0.8298 friday high and the 0.8300 handle as Fed October hike odds pushed past 70%. The NY session printed a 0.83275 week high, and the pullback to the 0.8304 ny low held the Monday higher lows trendline, with price still above the ema20 near 0.8310 and RSI(14) easing from the high 70s to the mid 60s.
Support: 0.8310, 0.83039, 0.8298
Resistance: 0.83275, 0.8350
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8304 ny low breaks the Monday higher lows sequence and exposes the 0.8298 friday high
Sustained trade under the ema20 near 0.8310 would mark the first loss of momentum since Monday's London session
H1 close above the 0.83275 week high opens the path toward the 0.8350 round number
Tuesday's JOLTS at 14:00 UTC, followed by Williams and Waller Fedspeak, could materially shift this read
Wednesday's ADP and Thursday's Swiss CPI are the next event risks for the impulse; a pullback into the 38.2% retracement near 0.8277 would bring the week open back into play
Thursday's dovish SNB hold drove the dominant leg of the week, a 50-pip London spike off 0.8229. Monday then pushed through last week's 0.8298 prior high as Fed October-hike odds topped 70%, printing a week high at 0.8328 in the NY session. The NY dip to 0.8304 held at the 23.6% fib of the SNB-to-high move, with price back above EMA(20) and RSI(14) easing from the mid-70s to the mid-60s, not overbought.
Support: 0.8304, 0.8298, 0.8278
Resistance: 0.83275, 0.8330
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8304 ny dip low breaks Monday's higher-low trendline
Failure to hold the 0.8298 prior high puts price back inside Friday's range, with the 50% fib near the 0.8278 weekly open next
Acceptance above the 0.8328 week high and 0.8330 round number extends the breakout
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC today and Tuesday's JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Tuesday; Monday broke above the Thu–Fri range.
USDCHF has printed higher lows since Tuesday's 0.8196 trough. Thursday's dovish SNB hold drove the London-open break above the 0.8263 yearly high, and Friday then consolidated between 0.8271 and 0.8298. Monday's session cleared the 0.8300 round number from the weekly open at 0.8278 and set a week high of 0.8328 in the first hour of NY, as Fed October-hike odds topped 70%. Price holds above the ema20 near 0.8310, pullbacks remain shallow and RSI(14) sits near 68, short of overbought.
Support: 0.8310, 0.8296, 0.8278
Resistance: 0.83275, 0.8350
What it said to watch
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC, then Tuesday's JOLTS and heavy Fedspeak, could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 0.8310 ema20 breaks the rising trendline from Friday's low
Loss of the 0.8296 monday low, the 23.6% retracement of the Tue–Mon impulse, negates the higher-low sequence
An H1 close above the 0.8328 week high opens the 0.8350 round number; rejection there keeps the 0.8305–0.8330 area as a cap
A slide back through the 0.8278 weekly open would unwind Monday's breakout
Higher highs and higher lows; Monday broke above Thu–Fri range top.
Thursday's post-SNB jump started the leg. Monday's session cleared the Friday prior high near 0.8297 during London and pressed into a 0.83275 week high into the NY open, with Fed October hike odds above 70% keeping the rate-gap bid in play. Price holds above a rising EMA(20) near 0.8307 and a higher-lows trendline from Thursday. RSI(14) near 72 is overbought after the impulse from Tuesday's 0.8196 low, and the week high now sits just below the 0.8330 round number.
Support: 0.8307, 0.8297, 0.8278
Resistance: 0.83275, 0.8330
What it said to watch
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC today and JOLTS Tue 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close back below the 0.8297 prior high returns price to the Thu–Fri range and weakens the breakout
Failure to hold the higher-lows trendline near 0.8286 and the weekly open at 0.8278 breaks the sequence of higher lows
Acceptance above the 0.83275 week high and 0.8330 round number extends the week impulse; rejection there with RSI rolling from overbought points to a pullback toward ema20
14:02 UTC
Uptrend, stretched near week high · RSI 73 · price 0.83187
Higher highs and higher lows; breakout above the 0.8298 cap from Thu-Fri.
USDCHF has built a stair-step of higher lows since Tuesday's 0.8196 trough. The dominant leg came during Thursday's London open, when the SNB held rates and softened its FX-intervention language, lifting the pair roughly 50 pips in one hour. Monday's slightly gapped weekly open at 0.8278 was lifted through the Asia session, and the London session broke the 0.8298 prior high that capped Thursday and Friday, extending to a week high of 0.8326 into the NY open. Price holds above a rising ema20 near 0.8305 with RSI(14) overbought above 70, and the 13:00 UTC bar traded two-way beneath the week high.
Support: 0.8305, 0.8298, 0.8278
Resistance: 0.8326, 0.8350
What it said to watch
An H1 close back below the 0.8298 prior high and the higher-lows trendline (~0.8299) would mark a false break of the Thu-Fri cap
Acceptance above the 0.8326 week high opens the path toward the 0.8350 round number
Loss of the 0.8278 weekly open would put price back under the 38.2% impulse fib (~0.8276) and break the higher-lows sequence
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC today and Tuesday's JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could materially shift Fed-hike pricing and this read
13:03 UTC
Uptrend, extended into overbought · RSI 71 · price 0.83199
Higher highs and higher lows since the SNB impulse; Friday's 0.8298 cap broken Monday.
USD/CHF has stair-stepped through a sequence of higher lows since Thursday's SNB impulse, a 0.8229–0.8296 surge on the dovish hold and softer FX-intervention language, with Friday's range capped near 0.8298. Monday's early European session broke that cap and printed a week high at 0.8323. The 08:00 UTC dip held at the 0.8297 pullback low. Price sits about 17 pips above EMA(20) at 0.8303 with RSI(14) near 71 overbought, as >70% Fed October hike odds keep widening the rate gap.
Support: 0.83025, 0.82965, 0.82777
Resistance: 0.83231, 0.8350
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8297 pullback low breaks Monday's higher-low sequence and puts the ema20 retest in doubt
Week high 0.8323: area to watch for rejection or extension toward the 0.8350 psych level
Weekly open at 0.8278 aligns with the 50% retracement of the SNB impulse; a move back there would unwind Monday's breakout
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC today and Tuesday's JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Overbought RSI with price stretched from ema20 leaves the higher lows line vulnerable to a soft US data surprise
12:02 UTC
Uptrend, extended into overbought · RSI 74 · price 0.83199
Higher highs and higher lows since Tuesday, fresh breakout above Friday high.
USDCHF has climbed roughly 130 pips off Tuesday's 0.8193 low in a staircase of higher lows. The dominant leg came in Thursday's London session on the SNB's dovish hold, and Fed October hike pricing above 70% has kept pullbacks shallow since. Monday opened near 0.8278 at the weekly open, rallied through the Asia session and cleared Friday's 0.8298 prior high into London, printing a 0.8323 session high. Price holds about 20 pips above EMA(20) at 0.8302 with RSI(14) near 74, stretched after a near-uninterrupted run. The 38.2% retracement of the week impulse sits back near 0.8273.
Support: 0.8302, 0.8298, 0.8278
Resistance: 0.8323, 0.8330
What it said to watch
An hourly close back below the 0.8298 prior high and the rising trendline (~0.8297) would mark a failed breakout
Acceptance above the 0.8330 round number would extend the higher-high sequence past today's session high
Fed's Bowman (12:15 UTC) and Cook (17:15 UTC) could materially shift this read via October hike odds
A drop through the 0.8278 weekly open would break the higher-low structure and put the week impulse retracement in play
Holding the EMA(20) at 0.8302 on the next pullback keeps the uptrend cycle intact
11:02 UTC
Uptrend, stretched into overbought · RSI 73 · price 0.83158
Higher highs and higher lows; Friday range broken to the upside Monday.
USD/CHF has printed higher highs and higher lows since Tuesday. The SNB's dovish hold on Thursday drove the dominant move, the post-SNB leg from 0.8229, before price settled into a 0.8271–0.8298 range on Friday. Monday's early-London push broke that range top and set a session high at 0.8317, with price holding above EMA(20) near the 0.8300 round number as October Fed hike odds above 70% keep the rate gap widening. RSI(14) is overbought around 73 and ATR(14) sits near 9 pips.
Support: 0.8300, 0.8290, 0.8278
Resistance: 0.8317, 0.8350
What it said to watch
H1 close back below 0.8300 (ema20) and the Asian low at 0.8290 would return price to Friday's range and read as a false break
Failure to hold the rising lows line and the weekly open at 0.8278 would break the higher-low sequence
Acceptance above the session high at 0.8317 opens the path to the 0.8350 round number
Fed's Bowman (12:15 UTC) and Cook (17:15 UTC), then Tuesday's JOLTS, could materially shift this read
10:02 UTC
Uptrend, extended near 16-month high · RSI 70 · price 0.83129
Higher highs and higher lows since Thursday; breakout above 0.8300 holding.
USD/CHF has set higher highs since the dovish SNB hold on Thursday. The post-SNB leg from 0.8229 carried into Monday's London open and printed a 16-month high at the 0.8315 week high, with Fed October hike odds above 70%. The London-session pullback to 0.8297 held the Friday high and EMA(20), keeping the higher lows intact. RSI(14) sits near 70, stretched but showing no divergence.
Support: 0.8298, 0.8278, 0.8271
Resistance: 0.8315, 0.8330
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 0.8298 friday high and EMA(20) would undercut the breakout above 0.8300
A close above the 0.8315 week high opens the 0.8330 round number, the top of the cited overbought cap
Loss of the 0.8278 weekly open exposes the 0.8271 friday low; a break there ends the higher lows sequence
Fed's Bowman (12:15 UTC) and Cook (17:15 UTC) today, then JOLTS Tue 14:00 UTC, could shift hike pricing and this read
09:03 UTC
Uptrend, fresh week high · RSI 68 · price 0.83111
Higher highs and lows since Tuesday; Friday range broken, retest held.
Stair-step higher highs and higher lows since Tuesday. The largest impulse came in Thursday's London session after the dovish SNB hold, and Friday's 0.8271–0.8298 range resolved higher on Monday. After opening at 0.8278, Monday's weekly open, price cleared the friday high in the Asia session and printed a 16-month week high at 0.8315 into the London open. The London pullback found demand at 0.8297–0.8298, where the friday high and EMA(20) converge, and RSI(14) near 68 is firm but not stretched.
Support: 0.8298, 0.82777, 0.8271
Resistance: 0.83146, 0.8330
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 0.8298 friday high would turn Monday's breakout into a false break
Acceptance above the 0.8315 week high brings the 0.8305–0.8330 cap zone flagged by UOB into play
Loss of the 0.8278 weekly open and 0.8271 friday low (50% of the SNB leg) breaks the higher-low trendline and the higher-low sequence
Fed's Bowman (12:15 UTC) and Cook (17:15 UTC) today and Tuesday's JOLTS (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Tuesday; new week high rejected.
The pair has built higher lows all week, from Tuesday's 0.8183 trough through the dovish SNB hold that drove a 30-pip leg in Thursday's London session, and then Friday's 0.8271 low. Monday gapped up from the 0.8278 weekly open and cleared Friday's 0.8298 prior high into the London open, but the 0.8315 week high printed a long upper wick. RSI(14) near 61 sits well below Thursday's reading, a bearish divergence against the new high, with EMA(20) around 0.8295 converging on the prior high.
Support: 0.8298, 0.8278, 0.8271
Resistance: 0.83146, 0.8330
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8298 prior high and EMA(20) exposes the 0.8278 weekly open
A break below the 0.8271 friday low breaks the higher-lows sequence
H1 acceptance above the 0.8315 week high weakens the rejection read and brings the 0.8330 round number into play
Fib 38.2% of the week's move sits near 0.8264; holding above it keeps the pullback shallow
JOLTS and Fedspeak on Tue, then ADP/PCE on Wed, could materially shift this read; Swiss CPI follows Thu 06:30 UTC
07:02 UTC
Uptrend, pressing into overhead cap · RSI 66 · price 0.83049
Higher lows since Tuesday; Friday range broken higher Monday.
USDCHF has rallied roughly 130 pips off Tuesday's 0.8183 low. The dominant legs came in Wednesday's NY session and Thursday's spike through 0.8263 after the dovish SNB hold, followed by a Friday consolidation between the friday low at 0.8271 and the friday high at 0.8298. Monday's Asian session and the run into the London open lifted price through 0.8300 to a 0.8315 session high, where an upper wick shows supply at the base of the 0.8305–0.8330 cap zone; price holds above EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 66 and short of overbought.
Support: 0.8298, 0.8278, 0.8271
Resistance: 0.8315, 0.8330
What it said to watch
H1 close back below 0.8300 and the friday high at 0.8298 would turn Monday's breakout into a false break back into Friday's range
Acceptance above the 0.8315 session high exposes the upper end of the cap zone at 0.8330
Failure to hold the weekly open at 0.8278 and the friday low at 0.8271 breaks the higher-low sequence of the rally
US ADP, GDP and PCE on Wed 30 Sep: a soft print has room to unwind the rally toward 0.8270; Tue JOLTS and Fedspeak are the earlier risk
Higher lows since Tuesday; break of Friday's range top.
USD/CHF has built higher lows all week. The dominant leg came in London hours Thursday, when the dovish SNB hold drove the pair through 0.8263 toward 0.8296, and pullbacks since have been shallow. Friday compressed into a 0.8271–0.8298 range under the friday high, and a late-Asia push on Monday cleared that high and 0.8300 to print a 0.8305 day high, with price above EMA20 near 0.8293 and RSI(14) around 65. The weekly open at 0.8278 sits near the 38.2% of the SNB leg fib and the higher lows trendline.
Support: 0.8298, 0.8293, 0.82777
Resistance: 0.83053, 0.8330
What it said to watch
An H1 close back below the friday high at 0.8298 would put price back inside Friday's range and mark the break as false
Acceptance above the day high moves focus to 0.8330, the upper cap of the 0.8305–0.8330 overbought zone flagged this week
A break of the higher lows trendline and the weekly open at 0.8278 would end the week's higher-low sequence
Tuesday's Fedspeak and US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could shift October hike pricing, the main driver of the pair, ahead of Wednesday's ADP and PCE data
Higher lows since Tuesday; tight range under the week high.
The dominant leg came in Thursday's London session, when the dovish SNB hold drove a 50-pip range bar off 0.8229 (near the 61.8% of the Tue–Mon impulse). Wednesday's NY hours had already lifted price through 0.8250. Since then price has held a 0.8264–0.8298 range, with the post-snb low at 0.8264 and Friday's 0.8271 extending the rising Thu-Fri lows line. Monday's Asia session opened below Friday's close, reclaimed it and printed a new week high at 0.8301, with price holding above ema20 and RSI(14) near 61, short of extremes.
Support: 0.8291, 0.8278, 0.8264
Resistance: 0.8301, 0.8330
What it said to watch
H1 acceptance above the 0.8301 week high opens the 0.8305–0.8330 cap zone flagged as overbought resistance
Loss of the weekly open at 0.8278 and the Thu-Fri lows line would break this week's higher-low sequence
A break of the 0.8264 post-snb low exposes the 38.2% of the Tue-Mon impulse near 0.8256
Tuesday's Fed speakers (Musalem, Goolsbee, Williams) and JOLTS, then Wednesday's ADP and PCE, could shift the range read
04:02 UTC
Uptrend, momentum steady rather than accelerating · RSI 61 · price 0.82961
Higher lows since Tuesday; post-SNB consolidation 0.8264–0.8298 pressing the week high.
USDCHF has climbed steadily from Tuesday's 0.8183 London-session low. The dominant leg came around Thursday's London open, when the dovish SNB hold drove a breakout through the 0.8263 prior high. Since then, price has consolidated between 0.8264 and 0.8298, with rising lows at Thursday's and Friday's NY-session troughs. Monday's Asia session printed a marginal week high at 0.8301 and is holding above the ema20 near 0.8290, with RSI(14) around 61, well short of overbought.
Support: 0.8290, 0.8271, 0.8264
Resistance: 0.8301, 0.8330
What it said to watch
H1 acceptance above the 0.8301 week high brings the 0.8305–0.8330 cap zone into play
A close back below the ema20 and the 0.8271 friday low would break the higher-lows sequence
Failure of the 0.8264 breakout level exposes the 38.2% of the week impulse near 0.8256
Tuesday Fed speakers (Musalem, Goolsbee, Williams) and JOLTS, then Wednesday's ADP/PCE, could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Tuesday; tight 0.8271–0.8301 consolidation after SNB impulse.
The impulse from Tuesday's 0.8183 low ran on Fed-hike bets. The NY session drove Wednesday's push to 0.8260, and Thursday's dovish SNB hold added about 45 pips into the London open. Since then price has compressed in a 0.8271–0.8298 box, with the higher-low line intact from the SNB-bar low. Monday's Asia session gapped down to a 0.8278 weekly open, then printed a new week high at 0.8301 before stalling, and price is now hovering just above an EMA(20) near 0.8290 with RSI(14) flat around 54.
Support: 0.8290, 0.82777, 0.8271
Resistance: 0.8301, 0.8330
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8301 week high opens the 0.8305–0.8330 resist zone flagged by UOB
Failure to hold the weekly open at 0.8278 and Friday low at 0.8271 breaks the higher-low line and exposes the 38.2% impulse fib near 0.8256
Repeated closes below EMA(20) at 0.8290 would shift the box toward its lower half
Musalem, JOLTS and Consumer Confidence Tue, then ADP/PCE Wed could materially shift this read
USD/CHF climbed from Tuesday's 0.8183 low. The decisive leg came in the London session on Thursday, when the dovish SNB hold sank the franc and lifted the pair through 0.8250. Since then price has compressed in a 0.8264 range low to 0.8298 band above EMA(20), printing higher lows from Thursday into Friday's 0.8271 low. Monday's Asia session opened with a small gap below the 0.8286 Friday close, then pushed to a 0.8301 Monday high before easing to 0.8293, with RSI(14) near 56 and no longer stretched.
Support: 0.8286, 0.8271, 0.8264
Resistance: 0.8301, 0.8330
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 0.8301 Monday high brings the 0.8305–0.8330 resistance zone into play, with 0.8330 as the zone top
Failure to hold the 0.8286 Friday close and the higher lows line shifts focus to the 0.8271 Friday low, near the 23.6% rally fib
A break below the 0.8264 range low ends the consolidation read and exposes the 38.2% rally fib near 0.8256
US JOLTS and Fed speakers on Tuesday, then ADP and PCE on Wednesday, could materially shift this read given how overbought USD positioning is
Higher lows since Tuesday, sideways range 0.8264–0.8298 since Thursday.
USD/CHF has gained about 118 pips from Tuesday's 0.8183 low. The dominant leg came at Thursday's London open, when the dovish SNB hold and softer intervention language hit the franc. Since then price has held a range between the 0.8264 range floor and the 0.8298 top, with the friday low at 0.8271 sitting on the 23.6% fib. Monday's Asia session recovered a small gap lower and tagged a fresh week high at 0.8301 on thin flow, holding above ema20 (~0.8290) with RSI(14) near 60.
Support: 0.8290, 0.8271, 0.8264
Resistance: 0.8301, 0.8330
What it said to watch
Sustained H1 closes above the 0.8301 week high break the range top and open the 0.8305–0.8330 cited zone flagged as overbought resistance
A slip back below ema20 and the 0.8271 friday low returns price to the range floor. Failure to hold 0.8264 would bring the 38.2% fib near 0.8256 into play
US JOLTS and Fed speakers Tue from 14:00 UTC, then ADP/PCE Wed 12:15–12:30 UTC, could materially shift the Fed-hike leg driving this uptrend
Swiss CPI Thu 06:30 UTC is a CHF-side risk to the consolidation read
00:03 UTC
Uptrend, consolidating near highs · RSI 59 · price 0.82981
Higher lows since Tuesday, tight range under week high.
USD/CHF has put in a weekly rally of roughly 115 pips from Tuesday's 0.8183 low. The dominant leg came at Thursday's London open, when the dovish SNB hold sent CHF lower across the board. Friday compressed into a 0.8271–0.8298 band as USD eased with oil, with the friday low holding. Monday's Asia session opened slightly lower, then pushed back to the 0.8299 week high, holding above ema20 and EMA(50). RSI(14) is near 59, off overbought, and ATR is contracting.
Support: 0.8289, 0.8271, 0.8255
Resistance: 0.8299, 0.8330
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8299 week high opens the 0.8305–0.8330 cap zone flagged as resistance
Loss of ema20 and the 0.8271 friday low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 38.2% fib of the weekly rally at 0.8255
Tue JOLTS and Fed speakers, then Wed ADP/PCE, could materially shift this read