Post-NY range 0.8304–0.8323 with lower highs, compressing in early Asia.
Monday's European-morning break out of the 0.8290–0.8305 Asian range, on hawkish Fed pricing and firm US yields, ran from the 0.8290 Asia low to the 0.83275 day high in the first NY hours. Since then price has held a 0.8304 session low to 0.8323 lower high range, and early Asia is compressing on EMA20 just above the 0.8313 base after a thin rollover low at 0.8308. The base sits on the 38.2% fib.
Support: 0.8313, 0.8308, 0.8304
Resistance: 0.8323, 0.83275, 0.8330
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8323 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 0.83275 day high and 0.8330 round number back in play
Loss of the 0.8313 base exposes the 0.8308 rollover low and the 0.8304 session low near the 50–61.8% fib
Tue 14:00 UTC JOLTS, Consumer Confidence and Fedspeak into Waller could materially shift this read
23:31 UTC
Sideways after London rally, higher lows intact · RSI 47 · price 0.83178
Range 0.8304–0.83275 below session high, NY lows rising.
Monday's London leg ran from 0.82965 to the 0.83275 session high as USD firmed on yields near 5.27%. NY dips held the 61.8% fib retrace at 0.8304–0.8308, and after the rollover low price has held near 0.8318 in early Asia, sitting on EMA20 with RSI(14) near 47 and supply capping the 0.8323 NY high.
Support: 0.8313, 0.8308, 0.8304
Resistance: 0.8323, 0.83275, 0.8330
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.83275 session high opens the 0.8330 round number
Loss of the 0.8313 asia base exposes the 0.8308 rollover low
Break below the 0.8304 ny low undercuts the 61.8% fib retrace and the higher-low chain
Tue 14:00 UTC JOLTS and Fedspeak into Waller could shift this read later in the session
Lower highs from 0.8328 against higher lows from 0.8304; compression in early Asia.
The Asia-NY leg from 0.8290 printed a session high at 0.8328 early in NY on firm yields and October Fed hike pricing. The Iran sanctions-relief headlines then trimmed the advance, and the dip to the 0.8304 NY low held near the 61.8% fib of that leg. Price has since formed lower highs below the 0.8323 evening high against a higher low at 0.8312, and is compressing near 0.8318 in the first Asian hours. The 00:00 broker rollover spike to 0.8308 was thin-liquidity noise.
Support: 0.8312, 0.8304
Resistance: 0.8323, 0.8328
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8323 evening high breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 0.8328 session high back in play
Failure to hold the 0.8312 higher low reopens the 0.8304 NY low and 61.8% fib
US-Iran headlines overnight and Tue 14:00 UTC JOLTS/Fedspeak could shift this read
22:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend stalled, ranging below the session high · RSI 44 · price 0.83169
HH/HL from the Asian low to 0.8328, then lower highs inside 0.8304–0.8328.
USD/CHF climbed from the 0.8290 Asian low to a 0.8328 session high in the first NY hours as hawkish Fed pricing kept yields firm. It has since rotated between the 0.8304 NY low (near the 61.8% fib) and a series of lower highs. After the rollover spike, price sits mid-range at 0.8317, just under flat EMAs and above rising trendline support near 0.8312.
Support: 0.8312, 0.8304
Resistance: 0.8323, 0.83275
What it said to watch
M15 close below the trendline at 0.8312 exposes the 0.8304 ny low and the 61.8% retracement
Close above the 0.8323 late high reopens the 0.8328 session high, the lower edge of the 0.8305–0.8330 cap zone flagged in the digest
Tuesday 14:00 UTC JOLTS and heavy Fedspeak could break the range during NY hours
Thin Asian-session liquidity after rollover can produce spikes like the 21:00 UTC wick to 0.8308
22:31 UTC
Uptrend stalled, ranging below day high · RSI 45 · price 0.83161
0.8304–0.8328 range since NY open; lower high at 0.8323.
Monday's rally from 0.8290 in Asia topped at the 0.8328 day high in NY as the US 10-year hit 5.27%. The Iran sanctions-relief headlines then knocked price to the 0.8304 NY low, near the 61.8% of the rally, and it has since held a 0.8304–0.8328 range. Early Asia trades mid-range at 0.8316, below the 0.8323 evening high, with RSI(14) neutral near 45.
Support: 0.8308, 0.8304, 0.8297
Resistance: 0.8323, 0.8328
What it said to watch
Break below the 0.8308 rollover low and 0.8304 NY low turns the range into a lower low and exposes the 0.8297 London low
M15 close above the 0.8323 evening high puts the 0.8328 day high back in play
US-Iran headlines and Tuesday's JOLTS, Consumer Confidence and Fedspeak from 14:00 UTC could shift this read
22:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, now consolidating · RSI 55 · price 0.83201
Higher lows off the Asian base; tight range under the session high.
USD/CHF climbed from the 0.8290 Asian base through London to a session high at 0.83275 in early NY, tracking elevated US yields and Fed hike pricing. The sharp NY drop on the Iran sanctions-relief headlines held at the 0.8304 ny low, near the 61.8% fib, and price has since compressed under the 0.8323 range top, with late lows at 0.8313 and RSI(14) neutral near 55.
Support: 0.8313, 0.83039, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.8323, 0.83275
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.83275 session high breaks the consolidation and extends the day's leg
Failure to hold the 0.8313 late lows (38.2% fib) reopens the 0.8304 ny low
A break below 0.8304 would undercut the higher-low sequence and put 0.8300 psych in play
Tuesday Fedspeak cluster and JOLTS 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read; the thin Asia session comes first
22:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend, now pausing below session high · RSI 54 · price 0.83201
Tight 0.8313–0.8323 range after recovery from NY low.
Monday's day's rally cleared the 0.8290–0.8301 Asian range early in Europe and ran to a 0.8328 session high in NY, before the Iran sanctions-relief headlines knocked price to the 0.8304 NY low. The recovery has stalled in a 0.8313–0.8323 range into the new Asia session, sitting in the upper part of the day's rally. The 0.8308 rollover dip was thin liquidity, and RSI(14) sits neutral near 54.
Support: 0.8313, 0.8304
Resistance: 0.8323, 0.83275, 0.8330
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8323 range top reopens the 0.8328 session high and the 0.8330 cap zone flagged as overbought resistance
Failure to hold the 0.8313 range base exposes the 0.8304 NY low and a deeper retrace of the day's rally
US-Iran headlines and Tuesday's Fedspeak slate plus JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs under 0.83275; NY-session range 0.8304–0.8323.
Monday's gap-up rally, driven by hawkish Fed repricing, climbed from the Asian range and held the 0.8297 london low, reaching a 0.83275 session high in NY. Since then price has printed a lower high near 0.8323, and dips held the 0.8304 ny low. A thin-liquidity spike to the 0.8308 rollover low, near the 61.8% fib, leaves early Asia session trading mid-range below both EMAs.
Support: 0.8308, 0.83039, 0.82965
Resistance: 0.83229, 0.83275, 0.8330
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8304 ny low breaks the NY range floor and exposes the 0.8297 london low
Close above the 0.8323 lower high and the trendline reopens the 0.83275 session high and the 0.8330 round number
Loss of the 0.8308 rollover low would mean price is no longer holding the 61.8% fib
Tuesday JOLTS at 14:00 UTC and heavy Fedspeak could materially shift this read
Higher lows since London open; late-NY range 0.8319–0.8322 broken by thin rollover wick.
USD/CHF broke the Asian range early in London and pushed to a NY high at 0.8328 on Fed-hike pricing and firm yields. NY-afternoon dips to the NY low at 0.8304 found demand and kept the rising lows intact. A thin rollover wick to 0.8308 has left price near the 50% level of the London-NY fib (0.8312), below the late NY cap at 0.8322.
Support: 0.8308, 0.83039, 0.82965
Resistance: 0.83223, 0.83275
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8304 ny low breaks the rising lows and exposes the london low at 0.8297
Recovery above the 0.8322 late ny cap and then the 0.8328 ny high resumes the higher-high sequence
Rollover low at 0.8308 printed on thin liquidity; a retest in Asia shows whether it holds as support
JOLTS and Consumer Confidence (Tue 14:00 UTC) plus heavy Fedspeak could materially shift this read
21:16 UTC
Sideways after London rally, momentum fading · RSI 45 · price 0.83131
Lower highs below 0.83275 day high, lows held 0.8304–0.8308.
London broke above the Asian range and extended to a 0.83275 day high during NY hours on firm Fed-hike pricing. That high drew a rejection, but the 0.83039 NY low held. After NY close, a thin-liquidity spike set a 0.8308 rollover low, and price now sits at the 50% retrace of the London-NY leg, below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 45. Lower highs are capping at the 0.8323 range top.
Support: 0.8308, 0.83039, 0.82965
Resistance: 0.83229, 0.83275, 0.8330
What it said to watch
Loss of the 0.8308 rollover low (61.8% fib) exposes the 0.83039 NY low; below that, the 0.82965 London low
M15 close above the 0.8323 range top breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 0.83275 day high and 0.8330 round number
JOLTS and Fedspeak Tue 14:00–19:00 UTC could materially shift this read
21:03 UTC
Sideways, higher intraday base after NY dip · RSI 58 · price 0.83196
0.8304–0.8328 day range; tight 0.8318–0.8323 box into rollover.
The 0.83275 day high printed around NY open as US yields ran to 2007 highs. The pair then slipped to the NY low at 0.83039, likely on the Iran sanctions-relief report trimming USD, and a second low at 0.83063 held. The recovery has stalled in a 0.8318–0.8323 box into the daily rollover, with ATR compressed near 4 pips and RSI(14) neutral.
Support: 0.83183, 0.83119, 0.83039
Resistance: 0.83229, 0.83275
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.83229 box top reopens the 0.83275 day high
Loss of the 0.83183 box floor exposes the 0.83119 swing low; a break of the 0.83039 ny low voids the double bottom
Thin Asia session and rollover spreads; Iran/Hormuz headlines are the main intraday swing risk
Tue JOLTS 14:00 UTC and Waller 19:00 UTC could materially shift this read later
Higher lows from London low; tight band 0.8319–0.8323 under 0.8328.
The small weekend gap lower filled in Asia. London broke the Asian high near 0.8315, and NY printed a 0.8328 session high before a drop to the 0.8304 NY low, coinciding with the Iran sanctions-relief headline. Late NY has recovered into a tight band between the 0.8319 pullback low and the 0.8323 late high, with the rising lows from the London low intact.
Support: 0.8319, 0.8304, 0.8297
Resistance: 0.8323, 0.8328
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8328 session high extends the higher-high chain into the 0.8330 area
Failure to hold the 0.8319 pullback low reopens the 0.8304 NY low
Break below the 0.8304 NY low violates the rising lows line and exposes the 0.8297 London low
US-Iran and oil headlines remain the intraday swing risk; JOLTS and Fedspeak follow Tuesday
Higher lows since London; NY dip retraced, late-NY consolidation.
London broke the Asian range top near 0.8301 and ran to a session high at 0.83275. The Iran-sanctions headline drove a NY drop to 0.8304 (ny low) that held above rising support, and the rebound has retraced about 80% of that drop. Price is now compressing at 0.8319–0.8323 below the late ny high in thin late-NY trade, pivot low at 0.8313 underneath.
Support: 0.8313, 0.8304, 0.82965
Resistance: 0.8323, 0.83275, 0.8330
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.83275 session high reopens the 0.8330 round number
Break below the 0.8313 pivot low exposes the 0.8304 ny low; losing that breaks the higher-low chain and the rising support from the london low
US JOLTS and Consumer Confidence Tue 14:00 UTC, Waller 19:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Higher lows since the London low; tight consolidation 0.8312–0.8323 after the NY dip was reclaimed.
USD/CHF climbed from the 0.8277 gap-down open to a 0.83275 session high in NY hours, with Fed October hike odds above 70% keeping the rate gap in focus. The NY-session flush to the 0.8304 ny low was a false break that was reclaimed within the hour. Price is now compressing above the 0.8312 higher low and below the 0.8323 late ny high into the Asia session, with RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 0.8312, 0.8304, 0.82965
Resistance: 0.8323, 0.83275, 0.8330
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8323 late ny high puts the 0.83275 session high and the 0.8330 round number back in play
Failure to hold the 0.8312 higher low reopens the 0.8304 ny low
A break of the rising line from the london low at 0.82965 through the ny low at 0.8304 would end the higher-low chain
Tuesday's JOLTS and Consumer Confidence (14:00 UTC) and Waller (19:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
20:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pausing after NY close · RSI 55 · price 0.83195
Higher low at 0.8306 after NY drop; tight consolidation under 0.8323.
Price broke above the 0.8290–0.8301 Asian range in early London on the yields-led USD bid and set a session high at 0.8328. The US-Iran sanctions-relief report then knocked it to a NY low at 0.8304, with a higher low at 0.8306 on the next dip. It has since retraced about 66% of the NY drop, which the ny drop fib measures, and is holding above the ny rising lows line in a 3-pip consolidation under the 0.8323 evening high after NY close. RSI(14) is neutral near 55 and ATR(14) is about 5.5 pips.
Support: 0.8312, 0.8304, 0.8297
Resistance: 0.8323, 0.8328, 0.8330
What it said to watch
A close above the 0.8323 evening high exposes the 0.8328 session high and the 0.8330 round number.
A break below the 0.8312 late ny low breaks the ny rising lows line and puts the 0.8304 ny low back in play.
Failure to hold the 0.8304 ny low opens the 0.8297 london low and negates the higher-low sequence.
Further Iran sanctions or Hormuz headlines drove the NY drop and could move this pair again during the Asia session.
Higher lows since NY pullback, capped under 0.8328.
The weekend gap lower filled in early Asia. London broke the 0.8290–0.8301 Asian range, and firm US yields carried price to a 0.83275 session high in NY. Iran sanctions-relief headlines then knocked it to a 0.8304 NY low near the 61.8% fib; late NY is now rebuilding higher lows at 0.8312, with a late high at 0.8323 capping so far.
Support: 0.8312, 0.8304
Resistance: 0.8323, 0.83275
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.83275 session high resumes the higher-high sequence
Break of the 0.8312 higher low puts the 0.8304 NY low and 61.8% fib back in play
Loss of 0.8304 breaks the NY higher-low line and exposes the 0.8301 Asian range top
Further US-Iran sanctions-relief headlines during Asia could repeat the NY drop
USDCHF gapped about 8 pips lower at the Sunday open, then broke above the Asian range after London's 0.8297 dip and set a session high at 0.8328 in NY hours. Iran sanctions-relief headlines drove two sharp dips toward the 0.8304 NY low around London close. Buyers absorbed both, and a higher-low chain off the 0.8312 swing low is now back at the session high late in NY, with RSI(14) near 55.
Support: 0.83119, 0.83039
Resistance: 0.83275, 0.8330
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8328 session high opens the 0.8330 round number
Loss of the 0.8312 swing low breaks the higher-low chain
Break below the 0.8304 NY low undercuts the intraday uptrend structure
Iran sanctions-relief headlines are the main shock risk; Fed's Musalem at 11:30 UTC Tue is the next scheduled risk
19:02 UTC
Uptrend, stalling into late NY range · RSI 51 · price 0.83196
NY range 0.8304–0.8328; higher lows since 17:00 UTC.
Monday's weekend gap down to 0.8276 filled during the Asia session, and London-NY extended to a session high of 0.8328 on Fed-hike repricing. Two sharp NY dips to the 0.8304 NY low on Iran sanctions-relief headlines were bought back above the 50% retrace. Price now sits at 0.8320 late in NY, on a higher low at 0.8312 and just under the 0.8326 prior high, with RSI neutral near 51.
Support: 0.83119, 0.83039, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.83259, 0.83275, 0.8330
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8328 session high breaks the NY range and brings the 0.8330 round number into play
Loss of the 0.8312 higher low returns price to the 0.8304 NY low. A break there puts the 50% retrace and 0.8300 psych level in focus
Fresh US-Iran sanctions-relief headlines drove both NY dips and could repeat
Tuesday's JOLTS and Fedspeak (Williams, Waller) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.8328 session high; higher low at 0.8306 held above the 0.8304 NY low.
Monday's climb from the 0.8297 London low met rejection at the 0.8328 session high early in NY hours. The Iran sanctions-relief headlines then drove a drop to the 0.8304 NY low, and late NY has compressed at 0.8312–0.8317 under a lower-highs line. RSI(14) is neutral near 47 and ATR(14) is about 6 pips as activity thins into the Asia session.
Support: 0.8312, 0.8304, 0.82965
Resistance: 0.8324, 0.83275
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8324 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and brings the 0.8328 session high back into view
Loss of the 0.8312 late NY low exposes the 0.8304 NY low; a break there opens the 0.8297 London low
Fresh US-Iran sanctions headlines during Asia hours could materially shift this read
18:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend stalling, lower highs into late NY · RSI 46 · price 0.83146
HH to 0.83275 then compression 0.8304–0.8321.
Monday's small opening gap lower was bought. The pair broke the 0.8276–0.8305 Asian range in London as hawkish Fed repricing lifted the dollar, then printed a session high at 0.83275 in early NY before rejection. Two sharp drops after 16:00 UTC, to the 0.8304 swing low and a 0.8306 higher low, have left price compressing near 0.8315, just under ema20, with RSI(14) at a neutral 46.
Support: 0.83063, 0.83039, 0.82965
Resistance: 0.83207, 0.83275, 0.8330
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8321 lower high breaks the compression and reopens the 0.83275 session high
Acceptance above the 0.8330 round number, the top of the cited overbought cap, would extend the uptrend read
Failure to hold the 0.8306 higher low and the 0.8304 swing low exposes the 0.8297 london low
Tue JOLTS at 14:00 UTC and Williams/Waller Fedspeak could shift October hike odds and this read
Lower highs off 0.8328 session high, NY lows holding 0.8304.
The Asia-London rally on hawkish Fed repricing ran from the 0.8297 London low to a 0.8328 session high early in NY, then stalled. Since then a descending lower-high line has capped price, and dips on the Iran sanctions-relief headlines found demand at the 0.8304 NY low twice. Late NY, price is pinned around the EMAs near the 38.2% retrace of the London-NY leg, RSI(14) neutral at 46.
Support: 0.8304, 0.8297
Resistance: 0.8324, 0.8328
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8324 lower high breaks the descending line and reopens the 0.8328 session high
Loss of the 0.8304 NY low exposes the 0.8297 London low and a deeper retrace of the London-NY leg
US JOLTS and Fedspeak (Williams, Waller) on Tuesday could materially shift Oct hike odds and this read
HH/HL chain through Asia and London; NY chop with lower highs.
USD/CHF gapped lower at the weekly open, then climbed from 0.8276 through Asia and London as the hawkish Fed repricing lifted the dollar, printing a 0.83275 session high in the first hours of NY. Two sharp dips into the 0.8304–0.8306 ny low were bought back, but highs are stepping lower and price is coiling near 0.8315 late in NY with RSI(14) neutral at 51.
Support: 0.8304, 0.82965
Resistance: 0.8321, 0.83275
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8321 lower high reopens the 0.83275 session high
Break of the 0.8304 ny low, near the 50% retracement of the Asia-to-NY rally, puts the 0.82965 london low in play
US-Iran sanctions headlines pulling oil lower could shift this read before Tuesday's JOLTS and Fedspeak
17:46 UTC
Uptrend, stalling in NY session · RSI 49 · price 0.83139
HH/HL to 0.8328, lower highs over 0.8304 base.
Monday opened with an ~8-pip gap lower, then rallied through Asia and London to a session high at 0.8328 as hawkish Fed repricing lifted the dollar. NY hours turned two-way: two drops to the ny low near 0.8304 were bought back, but a lower high near 0.8320 is capping as Iran sanctions-relief headlines trimmed USD gains. Price sits at the 50% of the london leg fib, just under EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral at 49.
Support: 0.8304, 0.8297
Resistance: 0.8320, 0.8328
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8304 ny low prints a lower low and opens the london low at 0.8297
Close above the 0.8320 lower high breaks the ny lower highs line and puts the 0.8328 session high back in play
Further US-Iran sanctions-relief headlines pulling oil lower could extend the NY pullback
17:31 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 44 · price 0.83093
Lower highs after 0.83275 peak, lows holding 0.8304.
After a small weekend gap lower, USDCHF climbed from 0.8276 to a 0.83275 session high in NY hours, on the back of hawkish Fed repricing and firm yields. Since then there has been rejection at the top. Two sharp drops after London close tagged the 0.8304 ny low and set a lower high at 0.8319. Price now sits near the 38.2% retrace, with RSI(14) at about 44 and below EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 0.83039, 0.8300, 0.82965
Resistance: 0.8319, 0.83275
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8304 ny low exposes the 0.8300 round number and the 0.82965 london low
Reclaim of the 0.8319 lower high and the descending trendline puts the 0.83275 session high back in focus
JOLTS and Conference Board Tue 14:00 UTC plus Williams/Waller Fedspeak could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Asia; late-NY range 0.8304–0.8328 under fresh highs.
The gap-lower open was reclaimed in Asia. London and NY stepped the pair up to a session high at 0.8328 on hawkish Fed repricing, but successive highs are now compressing just under the 0.8330 round number. The 16:15 UTC flush to the 0.8304 NY low tagged the 61.8% retracement of the rally and was rejected straight back, leaving price mid-range late in the NY session with RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 0.83039, 0.8301, 0.82965
Resistance: 0.83275, 0.8330
What it said to watch
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read
An M15 close above the 0.8328 session high puts the 0.8330 round number in play
Failure to hold the 0.8304 NY low and the 0.8301 Asian high breaks the higher-low chain toward the 0.8297 London low
The 61.8% fib holding on retests keeps the rally structure intact
London-NY higher-low chain broken; retesting 0.8309 range floor from below.
The London leg from the 0.8297 London low topped at a 0.8328 session high in early NY, inside the 0.8305–0.8330 cap flagged in the CHF digest. The afternoon 0.8309–0.8328 range gave way after London close: an 18-pip bar from the 0.8322 drop origin printed a 0.8304 spike low and broke the higher-low line. Price is now back at the 0.8309 floor from below, between the 50% and 61.8% of the London leg fib and under both EMAs.
Support: 0.8304, 0.8300, 0.8297
Resistance: 0.8322, 0.8328
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.8322 drop origin would neutralise the breakdown and reopen the 0.8328 session high
Failure at the 0.8304 spike low and the 0.8300 round number exposes the 0.8297 London low, the 100% of the London leg fib
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain since the London dip, now compressing below the session high.
Monday's Asian range (0.8290–0.8301) broke higher. The dip at London open held the asian high near 0.8297, and a higher-low sequence followed, with the NY low at 0.8309 feeding a new session high at 0.8327 as October Fed-hike odds above 70% kept the rate-gap trade intact. Since then price has chopped 0.8316–0.8327 with RSI(14) back near 55. The swing low at 0.8316 sits on the 38.2% fib of the 08:00–14:45 leg and on the rising trendline.
Support: 0.83157, 0.8309, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.83275, 0.8330
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8327 session high puts the 0.8330 round number in play
Loss of the 0.8316 swing low and rising trendline exposes the ny low at 0.8309
Close below 0.8309 breaks the HL chain and turns attention to the asian high near 0.8300
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since London open; NY compressing in 0.8309–0.8328 box.
USDCHF broke the Asian high at 0.8300 late in Asia. The London-open retest held at 0.8297, and price then stretched to a session high at 0.8328 as Fed October-hike odds held above 70%. NY has since compressed between the NY low at 0.8309 and the high, with the 0.8316 swing low sitting on the 38.2% fib and RSI(14) back to a neutral 54.
Support: 0.83157, 0.8309, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.83275, 0.8330
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8328 session high puts the 0.8330 round number in play and extends the higher-high chain
Loss of the 0.8316 swing low and the NY low at 0.8309 breaks the trendline support from the London-open low
Acceptance back below the 0.8300 Asian high would negate the London breakout
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since London, capped at 0.8328 session high.
USDCHF gapped lower at the weekly open, then climbed through Asia and London. It is making higher lows at the 0.8297 london low, the 0.8309 ny low and the 0.8316 swing low as Fed October-hike odds above 70% keep the rate gap in focus. NY printed a session high at 0.8328 and price is now chopping just below it near the rising support line, with RSI(14) back at 55 and ATR around 7 pips.
Support: 0.83157, 0.8309, 0.82965
Resistance: 0.83275, 0.8330
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8328 session high and the 0.8330 round number extends the higher-high chain into the 0.8305–0.8330 overbought cap zone
Failure to hold the 0.8316 swing low (38.2% of the london-ny leg) breaks the rising support line; the 0.8309 ny low comes into focus next
Loss of the 0.8297 london low undoes the higher-low structure from the London open
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since London; NY capped at 0.8328, pulling back into the 0.8309–0.8328 band.
London broke above the Asian high near 0.8305 and built higher lows off the 0.8297 London low, driven by hawkish Fed repricing that pushed USDCHF to 16-month highs. NY printed a session high at 0.8328 but was rejected. Price is back at 0.8317, the 38.2% retracement of the London-NY leg, with the 0.8309 NY low as the higher low holding the sequence.
Support: 0.8309, 0.8305, 0.8297
Resistance: 0.8328, 0.8330
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8309 NY low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 0.8305 Asian high
Clearing the 0.8328 session high and 0.8330 psych level resumes the higher-high sequence
Loss of the London-NY lows trendline shifts the read to a range
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC (~90 min) could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from London low, compressing below session high.
USD/CHF cleared the Asian range and the 0.83146 pre-London high as hawkish Fed repricing kept the dollar bid, then set a session high at 0.83275 in NY hours. Since the 0.83259 London high the pair has chopped in a 0.8309–0.8327 band with RSI(14) near 55. Rising lows from the 0.82965 London low remain intact, and the 0.8309 NY low sits on the 61.8% fib of that leg.
Support: 0.8309, 0.82965
Resistance: 0.83275, 0.8330
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.83275 session high reopens the 0.8330 round number
Failure to hold the 0.8309 NY low breaks the rising lows and exposes the 0.82965 London low
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read
15:01 UTC
Uptrend, swings widening in NY · RSI 57 · price 0.83206
HH chain from 0.82965 London low; NY chop 0.8309–0.83275.
USD/CHF cleared the Asian range high near 0.8305 into London and has printed higher highs to a 0.83275 session high as hawkish Fed repricing keeps the rate gap widening. The latest push was rejected back to 0.8321, and NY hours have widened the swings, with demand at the 0.8309 swing low holding above the rising trendline from the London low.
Support: 0.8309, 0.82965
Resistance: 0.83275, 0.8330
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.83275 session high extends the higher-high chain toward the 0.8330 round number
Break below the 0.8309 swing low undercuts the NY higher low and puts the rising trendline and 0.82965 London low in focus
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read
London HH/HL chain intact; NY pullback holding the 50% fib.
London extended Monday's break above the Asian range to a session high at 0.8326 on hawkish Fed repricing. The first hour of NY brought a rejection and a dip to the ny low at 0.8309, near the 50% fib of the london low–session high leg. Price sits at the 38.2% retracement, just under EMA20, with RSI(14) near 48; a lower high at 0.8322 caps the rebound.
Support: 0.8309, 0.8300, 0.82965
Resistance: 0.8322, 0.83259
What it said to watch
M15 close below the ny low at 0.8309 breaks the HH/HL chain and exposes the 0.8300 round number
Loss of the london low at 0.8297 negates the session uptrend read
Close above the 0.8322 lower high and the 0.8326 session high resumes the up-leg
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from London low, now consolidating 0.8309–0.8326.
Hawkish Fed repricing carried USDCHF out of the Asian range, with the Asian high at 0.8305 cleared and a HH/HL chain running from the 0.8297 London low to a session high at 0.8326 into the NY open. The NY-open dip found demand at 0.8309, inside the 50–61.8% retracement of the London-NY leg and above rising support. Price is now chopping around EMA20 with RSI(14) back to a neutral 51.
Support: 0.8309, 0.83053, 0.82965
Resistance: 0.83259, 0.8330
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8309 ny low breaks rising support and exposes the 0.8305 asian high
Acceptance above the 0.8326 session high puts the 0.8330 round number, the top of the reported overbought cap, in play
A lower high under 0.8326 followed by a close below 0.8309 would mark a lower-low shift in structure
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could shift Oct hike pricing and this read
London HH/HL chain intact; NY open printed a slightly lower low off a capped top.
USDCHF recovered the weekend gap in Asia. London then broke the 0.8305 asian high and rallied from the 0.8297 london low to a 0.8326 session high, with Fed October-hike repricing keeping USD bid. The session high has capped three tests into the NY open. The dip to the 0.8309 swing low held between the 50% and 61.8% retrace of the London rally, and price sits just above EMA20 with RSI(14) near 57 and ATR around 6 pips.
Support: 0.8309, 0.8305, 0.82965
Resistance: 0.83259, 0.8330
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8326 session high reopens the 0.8330 round number, the top of the flagged overbought cap
Failure to hold the 0.8309 swing low confirms a lower low and puts the 0.8305 asian high in play
A break of the 0.8297 london low undoes the London rally structure
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read via October hike odds
14:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend, first pullback at NY open · RSI 56 · price 0.83186
HH/HL chain from 0.8297; NY dip broke the last higher low, then reclaimed.
London cleared the Asian high at 0.8315 and stepped up in higher lows to a session high at 0.8326. The NY open flushed to 0.8309, roughly 57% of the London leg from 0.8297. That dip was rejected and price is back above the Asian high, with the hawkish Fed repricing still behind the leg.
Support: 0.83146, 0.8309, 0.82965
Resistance: 0.83259, 0.8330
What it said to watch
M15 close below the ny low at 0.8309 breaks the London higher-low sequence and exposes the london low at 0.8297
Close above the session high at 0.8326 resumes the HH chain toward the 0.8330 round number
Loss of the Asian high at 0.8315 on a closing basis turns the NY dip into a failed retest
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from London low; NY-open rejection back onto higher-low shelf.
The Sunday gap lower filled within the first hour. London then broke the Asian range top near 0.8305 and built a higher-low chain from the 0.8297 London low to a 0.8326 session high, carried by the Fed-SNB rate-gap theme. The first NY bar spiked to 0.8324 and closed on its low, putting price back on the 0.8312 higher low near the 38.2% fib, with RSI(14) neutral around 48.
Support: 0.8312, 0.8307, 0.82965
Resistance: 0.83259, 0.8330
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8312 higher low breaks the London HL chain and exposes the 0.8307 swing low / 50–61.8% fib zone
Loss of 0.8297 London low would unwind the whole London leg
M15 close above the 0.8326 session high reopens the 0.8330 round number
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could shift USD rate-hike pricing during late NY hours
13:31 UTC
Uptrend, steady higher highs into NY open · RSI 61 · price 0.83205
HH/HL chain from the 0.8297 London low; range tightening under the session high.
After a gap lower at the weekly open, USD/CHF broke the Asian range high near 0.8305 late in Asia. It then built a clean HH/HL chain off the 0.8297 London low to a 0.8326 session high, with CHF heavy as Fed hike pricing widens the rate gap. RSI(14) near 61 is not stretched, and bars are compressing under the high into the London-NY transition, with the 0.8318 higher low sitting on the rising trendline.
Support: 0.83183, 0.8313, 0.82965
Resistance: 0.83259, 0.8330
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8318 higher low and rising trendline breaks the intraday HH/HL chain
Loss of the 0.8313 swing low, the 38.2% fib zone, exposes the london low at 0.8297
Acceptance above the 0.8326 session high brings the 0.8330 round number (top of the flagged overbought cap) into play
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC during NY hours could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from the 0.8297 London low, price just under the session high.
After a small weekend gap lower, Asia pushed through Friday's range. London dipped to the 0.8297 london low, and a steady higher-low chain then carried price to a 0.8326 session high into the NY open. Fed October hike odds above 70% keep the rate gap widening. Price is holding above the 0.8318 swing low and the rising trendline, with RSI(14) near 65 and not stretched.
Support: 0.83183, 0.83138, 0.82965
Resistance: 0.83255, 0.8330
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8326 session high exposes the 0.8330 round number, the top of the flagged overbought cap
Close below the 0.8314 higher low breaks the rising trendline and the HL chain; the fib 50% sits near 0.8311
Loss of the 0.8297 london low undoes the London-session advance
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read
13:02 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 64 · price 0.83208
Higher-high/higher-low chain since the 08:00 UTC low; first rejection at 0.83255.
USDCHF opened the week slightly below Friday's close, climbed through Asia, and faded the London-open spike to the london low at 0.82965. It has since built a higher-low chain toward a 0.83255 session high, with support from Fed October hike odds above 70%. The 12:45 UTC bar was rejected there and the swing low at 0.8313, near the 38.2% retracement, is holding early in NY.
Support: 0.8313, 0.8300, 0.82965
Resistance: 0.83255, 0.8330
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8313 swing low and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low chain
Loss of the 0.8300 round number reopens the london low at 0.82965
Close above the 0.83255 session high puts the 0.8330 round number, the top of the 0.8305–0.8330 overbought cap, in play
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could shift October hike odds and this read
12:46 UTC
Uptrend, RSI near 70 but not extreme · RSI 70 · price 0.83202
HH/HL chain from the London low, pressing the session high into NY open.
USDCHF cleared the Asian range high near 0.8305 before London. It then rebuilt from the 0.82965 london low in a steady higher-low sequence (0.8307 swing low, 0.8314 higher low) to a fresh 16-month session high at 0.8323, as October Fed hike odds above 70% keep the rate gap widening. RSI(14) is around 70 and ATR is under 5 pips, so the grind is orderly rather than stretched.
Support: 0.83138, 0.83068, 0.82965
Resistance: 0.83231, 0.8330
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8323 session high opens the 0.8330 round number, the top of the flagged overbought cap
Failure to hold the 0.8314 higher low ends the HH/HL chain; a trendline break there puts the 0.8307 swing low and 61.8% fib in play
M15 close below the 0.82965 london low would erase the London advance
NY open and Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read via October hike odds
Higher-high/higher-low chain above Asian range, mid-London.
USD/CHF cleared the Asian range high near 0.8301 and printed a session high at 0.8323 on the London leg, fresh 16-month highs on firm Fed-hike pricing. Higher lows from the 0.8297 london low hold along a rising trendline, latest swing low 0.8314, and RSI(14) near 65 is not stretched.
Support: 0.83138, 0.83098, 0.82965
Resistance: 0.83231, 0.8330
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8323 session high opens the 0.8330 round number, the UOB overbought cap
Break of the 0.8314 swing low and the rising trendline ends the HL chain, with the fib 50% of the London leg at 0.8310 next
Loss of the 0.8297 london low undoes the Asian range breakout
Bowman (12:15 UTC) and Cook (17:15 UTC) remarks on an October hike could materially shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows off the London low, pressing the session high.
London cleared the Asian high at 0.8315 and printed a session high at 0.8323 into the London-NY transition, with Fed October hike odds above 70% keeping the rate gap with the SNB wide. The HH/HL chain off the 0.8297 London low is intact, and RSI(14) near 66 is firm but not stretched.
Support: 0.83146, 0.83127, 0.82965
Resistance: 0.83231, 0.8330
What it said to watch
Bowman at 12:15 UTC and Cook at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close back below the 0.8315 Asian high puts the breakout in question
Loss of the 0.8313 higher low (fib 38.2, trendline support) breaks the HH/HL chain
Acceptance above the 0.8323 session high opens the 0.8330 round number
Break of the 0.8297 London low negates today's structure
Higher highs and higher lows off the 0.8297 London low, testing the session high.
Sunday's gap lower was filled in Asia. The pair then broke above the 0.8305 Asian range top, pulled back to a 0.8297 London low, and has since stepped up in higher lows to a 0.8323 session high, beyond the 0.8314 16-month high cited in the digest, on widening Fed-SNB rate-gap flows. RSI(14) at 66 is warm but not stretched, and dips have held near the 38.2% fib and swing low at 0.8313.
Support: 0.83127, 0.83068, 0.82965
Resistance: 0.83231, 0.8333
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC, 15 minutes after the last bar opened, could materially shift this read
An M15 close below the 0.8313 swing low breaks the rising trendline and puts the 0.8307 higher low in play
Failure to hold 0.8307 ends the HH/HL chain and exposes the 0.8297 London low
Acceptance above the 0.8323 session high brings the 0.8330 uob cap into view
HH/HL chain; breakout above prior high being retested.
After a small gap lower at the weekly open, Asia cleared the 0.8301 Asian range high. Price then printed 0.8315 just before London, and the London low at 0.8297 held on the dip. The late-morning push set a new session high at 0.8320 on Fed hike repricing, and price is now holding the 0.8313 prior high on retest, with RSI(14) near 67 and the 09:15 UTC swing low at 0.8307 underneath.
Support: 0.83135, 0.83068, 0.82965
Resistance: 0.83198, 0.8330
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC, and Cook at 17:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
M15 close back below the 0.8313 prior high turns the breakout into a failed retest
Failure to hold the 0.8307 swing low exposes the london low at 0.8297; a break there ends the HH/HL chain
M15 close above the 0.8320 session high opens the 0.8330 round number
Stair-step higher lows off 0.8297 swing low, testing 0.8320 session high mid-London.
USDCHF gapped lower at the Monday open, then climbed through the Asian range and Friday's 0.8296 high. At London open the pair reached the 0.8314 prior high, and after a pullback to the 0.8297 swing low it printed a fresh 16-month session high at 0.8320 as hawkish Fed repricing kept CHF heavy. Higher lows are holding along the rising trendline and RSI(14) sits near 66, firm but not stretched.
Support: 0.83146, 0.83068, 0.82965
Resistance: 0.83198, 0.8330
What it said to watch
M15 close below the rising trendline and the 0.8307 higher low breaks the HH/HL chain
Failure to hold the 0.8314 prior high reopens the 0.8297 swing low
Acceptance above the 0.8320 session high puts the 0.8330 round number, top of the cited overbought cap, in view
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC and Cook at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since London low; stalling under session high.
USDCHF gapped slightly lower at the open, then climbed out of the Asian range and broke through 0.8300 into London. It printed a session high at 0.83173 as Fed October hike odds held above 70%. A dip to the 0.82965 London low drew demand, and price has since held higher lows above the 0.83068 swing low, with two tests of the session high so far capping. RSI(14) sits near 63.
Support: 0.83068, 0.8300, 0.82965
Resistance: 0.83173, 0.8333
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC, early in NY hours, could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.83173 session high extends the breakout toward the 0.8305–0.8330 cap zone
Loss of the 0.83068 swing low (50% of the London leg fib) weakens the higher-low sequence
Failure to hold the 0.8300 round number and the 0.82965 London low breaks the rising support from the Asian open
Asian range break higher, higher-high/higher-low chain through London.
USD/CHF cleared the Asian range (0.8290–0.8301) in the London session. Fed October hike odds above 70% drove it to a 0.8314 prior high, then a fresh session high at 0.8317. The 0.82965 London low held as a higher low above the Asian high, and price is now pressing the session high with RSI(14) at 63, not stretched.
Support: 0.8314, 0.8300, 0.82965
Resistance: 0.83173, 0.8330
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Acceptance above the 0.8317 session high opens the 0.8330 round number
Failure to hold the 0.8314 prior high puts the 0.8300 Asian high and 38.2% fib (~0.8307) in play
Break below the 0.82965 London low breaks the rising lows sequence
Asian range broken higher, retested, fresh session high printed.
USD/CHF cleared the asian high near 0.8301 early in the London session. It then retested it with a dip to the 0.8297 london low before pushing to a fresh session high at 0.8317, extending the 16-month high as Fed October hike odds hold above 70%. RSI(14) near 60 is not stretched, and higher lows are holding along rising support from the Asian low, with the 0.8307 swing low the nearest pivot.
Support: 0.83068, 0.8301, 0.82965
Resistance: 0.83173, 0.8330
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8301 asian high and the 0.8297 london low invalidates the breakout read
Loss of the 0.8307 swing low breaks the latest higher-low sequence
Acceptance above the 0.8317 session high brings the 0.8330 uob cap into view
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC could materially shift this read ahead of NY open
10:31 UTC
Uptrend, fresh session high · RSI 66 · price 0.83163
HH/HL chain above the Asian range, mid-London session.
USDCHF broke the Asian range high near 0.8301 into the London open. After a retest to the 0.8297 london low, the London leg from that low printed a fresh 16-month session high at 0.8317, with Fed October hike odds above 70% keeping USD firm. Price now sits just above the 0.8315 prior high; RSI(14) is near 66, warm but not stretched, and ATR(14) is about 5.4 pips.
Support: 0.83146, 0.83068, 0.82965
Resistance: 0.83173, 0.8320
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 0.8307 swing low breaks the higher-low chain
Loss of the 0.8297 london low and the rising trendline would negate the Asian range breakout
Session high 0.8317 and the 0.8320 round number are the area to watch for rejection or extension
Slipping back under the 0.8315 prior high would turn the new high into a false break
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC (Cook 17:15 UTC) could materially shift this read
10:16 UTC
Uptrend, retesting session high · RSI 61 · price 0.83123
Higher lows since Asian range break; price pressing the 0.83146 high.
USDCHF cleared the 0.8301 Asian high ahead of the London open and printed a 16-month high at 0.83146. The pullback found demand at the 0.82965 London low, near the 78.6% retrace of the Asia-London leg. Price has since built higher lows through the 0.83068 swing low and is retesting the session high mid-London, with RSI(14) around 61 and firm Fed-hike pricing keeping USD bid.
Support: 0.83068, 0.8301, 0.82965
Resistance: 0.83146, 0.8330
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.83146 session high extends the leg toward the 0.8330 cap, the top of the digest's overbought zone
Loss of the 0.83068 swing low breaks the higher-lows chain and exposes the 0.8301 Asian high
A break below the 0.82965 London low negates the rebound from the retrace
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC and Cook at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read
10:01 UTC
Uptrend, retesting session high · RSI 61 · price 0.83123
Higher low at 0.8297, price pressing the 0.8315 session high.
USDCHF opened Monday with a small gap lower from Friday, then ran through the Asian high at 0.8305 to a 16-month session high at 0.8315 as >70% October Fed hike odds kept USD bid. The London low at 0.8297 held near the 50% retrace of the Asian low-to-high leg, and price is back testing the session high mid-London with RSI(14) at 61, well short of stretched.
Support: 0.83053, 0.82965, 0.82763
Resistance: 0.83146, 0.8320, 0.8330
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8315 session high opens the 0.8320 round number and the 0.8330 UOB cap
Second rejection at 0.8315 followed by a break of 0.8305 (Asian high) would put the London low at 0.8297 and rising support back in play
Loss of the London low at 0.8297 breaks the higher-low chain and the 50% retrace, exposing the 0.8276 Asian low
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC and Cook at 17:15 UTC could materially shift October hike pricing and this read
London consolidation 0.8297–0.8315 after Asian range break.
Hawkish Fed repricing lifted USD/CHF out of the Asian range before London. It printed a 0.8315 session high, which is also the 16-month high. London has since held a tight consolidation: a false break below the 0.8300 round number to the 0.8297 london low, deep in the rally fib, was reclaimed within one bar, while highs near 0.8313 sit just shy of the session high.
Support: 0.8300, 0.82965
Resistance: 0.83146
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8315 session high extends the rally beyond the 16-month high
Failure to hold the 0.8300 round number reopens the london low at 0.8297 and invalidates the rally fib hold
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC, ahead of the NY session, could materially shift this read
Monday's small opening gap lower was bought through Asia. The pre-London push cleared Friday's 0.8298 high and set the session high at 0.8315, a 16-month high, on hawkish-Fed USD demand. London open dipped to the 0.8297 london low before rebounding, but a second test near 0.8313 stalled; price is holding between the 0.8300 round number and the session high.
Support: 0.8300, 0.82965, 0.82904
Resistance: 0.83146, 0.8330
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8315 session high reopens the 0.8305–0.8330 zone top
Break below the 0.8300 round number and the 0.8297 london low undercuts the higher-low line
Loss of the 0.8290 swing low negates the Monday breakout
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC and Cook at 17:15 UTC could shift USD tone into NY hours
09:16 UTC
Uptrend, pressing session high · RSI 60 · price 0.83107
Higher low at 0.8297, retesting 0.8315 high.
The weekend gap lower was filled early in Asia, and late Asia broke Friday's 0.8298 high to a 16-month session high at 0.8315 as oil and Fed-hike pricing kept USD bid. Mid-London, the dip held 0.8297 (london low) just above the 0.8300 psych level on a rising line, and price is back testing the session high with RSI(14) near 60, not stretched.
Support: 0.8300, 0.82965, 0.82904
Resistance: 0.83146, 0.8330
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.8315 session high extends toward the 0.8305–0.8330 overbought zone top at 0.8330
Break of 0.8297 london low and the rising line negates the higher-low sequence; 0.8290 asian low is next
Loss of the 0.8300 psych level returns price to the Asian consolidation
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC could materially shift this read
09:02 UTC
Uptrend, pressing session high · RSI 60 · price 0.83107
Asian range break higher; London range 0.8297–0.8315 with higher lows.
USD/CHF cleared the Asian high at 0.8301 into early London and set a session high at 0.83146, the 16-month high, on the oil-driven USD bid. The London low at 0.82965 briefly broke back below the Asian high before price reclaimed it, keeping the higher-lows sequence intact. Price is now back near the session high with a swing low at 0.83086 beneath it.
Support: 0.83086, 0.8301, 0.82965
Resistance: 0.83146, 0.8330
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.83146 session high opens the 0.8330 cap zone
Loss of the 0.83086 swing low returns price to the Asian high retest at 0.8301
Break below the 0.82965 London low breaks the higher-lows trendline and the breakout read
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range break, retest of Asian high held; higher low at 0.8297.
The breakout leg from the Asian range hit a session high at 0.8315, the 16-month high, before an immediate rejection. London pullbacks held the 0.8297 swing low, and the latest bar is back above the 0.8300 Asian high. Iran/Hormuz-driven oil strength keeps the USD bid in place; RSI(14) is near 60, not stretched.
Support: 0.8300, 0.82965
Resistance: 0.83146, 0.8330
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8315 session high opens the 0.8330 cap zone flagged as overbought resistance
Failure to hold the 0.8297 swing low, and a break of rising support, would turn the retest of the Asian high into a false break
A deep retrace of the breakout leg below 0.8290 would return price to the Asian range
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC (15:15 broker) during NY hours could materially shift this read
USD extended on hawkish Fed hike pricing and Iran-driven oil strength. Pre-London buying broke the Asian range top near 0.8300 and printed a 16-month session high at 0.8315, which was rejected. Early London has carved lower highs from 0.8309 (london high), and the latest dip to the 0.82965 london low was bought back to the 0.8300 psych retest. That dip sits near the 76.4% fib of the asian low-to-session high leg.
Support: 0.8300, 0.82965, 0.82904
Resistance: 0.83093, 0.83146, 0.8330
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.82965 london low breaks the 0.8300 psych retest and exposes the 0.8290 asian low
M15 close above the 0.8309 london high clears the lower-high trendline and reopens the 0.8315 session high
Acceptance above 0.8315 brings the 0.8330 cap zone into play
Fib 76.4% of the asian low-session high leg near 0.8297 failing would undo most of the pre-London breakout
No scheduled USD or CHF data in the next 8h. Tue JOLTS and Fedspeak are the next event risk
Asian breakout above Friday high, now compressing 0.8300–0.8309 in early London.
USD/CHF cleared Friday's 0.8298 high late in the Asia session and spiked to a 0.8315 session high, a 16-month peak, on Fed hike bets and oil-driven USD demand, then was sharply rejected. Early London is compressing between the 0.8300 round number, which is also the 38.2% of the Asian rally fib, and the 0.8309 london high. RSI(14) is neutral near 56.
Support: 0.8300, 0.8290
Resistance: 0.83093, 0.83146
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8300 round number exposes the 0.8290 swing low and the 50% of the Asian rally fib near 0.8296
A reclaim of the 0.8309 london high reopens the 0.8315 session high
No scheduled USD/CHF data in the next 8h; Iran and oil headlines are the swing factor for this read
08:02 UTC
Pre-London breakout, now consolidating below the high · RSI 54 · price 0.83025
Asian range broken higher, spike rejected, lower highs above a flat 0.8300 floor.
USD/CHF broke above the 0.8290–0.8301 Asian range before London on Fed-hike and oil-driven USD demand. It printed a session high at 0.8315, then saw a sharp rejection on the 06:30 UTC bar. Early London is compressing around the 50% retrace, with lower highs at 0.8309 and 0.8308 capping and the Asian high near 0.8300 holding as support.
Support: 0.8300, 0.8290
Resistance: 0.8309, 0.83146
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 0.8300 returns price inside the Asian range and exposes the 0.8290 Asian low
Close above the 0.8309 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and reopens the 0.8315 session high
No scheduled US or Swiss data in the next 8h; Iran/Hormuz and oil headlines remain the swing factor
07:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pausing after break of 0.8300 · RSI 63 · price 0.8304
HH/HL chain from Asian low; 0.8300 breakout now under retest.
Monday gapped down to the 0.8276 Asian low, then Asia reversed it through Friday's 0.8298 high and the 0.8300 psych to a session high at 0.8315, as Fed hike bets and the SNB rate gap kept CHF offered. Early London has twice held the 0.8300 retest, near the 38.2% fib of the Asian leg. The 0.8309 London open high is capping, and the 0.8290 higher low sits below.
Support: 0.8301, 0.8290, 0.8276
Resistance: 0.8309, 0.8315
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 0.8300 fails the retest and exposes the 0.8290 higher low
Break above the 0.8309 London high and 0.8315 session high extends the HH chain toward the 0.8330 overbought zone
Loss of 0.8290 breaks the rising trendline off the asian low
No scheduled data in the next 8h; oil/Iran headlines and US yields drive the USD leg
07:31 UTC
Uptrend, pausing after rejection · RSI 62 · price 0.83056
Breakout above 0.8300, retesting breakout level.
Pair broke through 0.8300 late in the Asia session on Fed-hike and yield support for USD. It printed a session high at 0.8315, then saw a 12-pip rejection into London open. Price is now retesting the 0.8301 breakout level, right at the 38.2% fib of the rally from the 0.8290 swing low; RSI(14) is near 62.
Support: 0.8301, 0.8290, 0.8276
Resistance: 0.8315, 0.8330
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8301 breakout level would flag a false break and expose the 0.8290 swing low
Loss of 0.8290 would put the gap-down monday low at 0.8276 back in view
Close above the 0.8315 session high reopens the 0.8330 round number, the top of the flagged overbought zone
Fed's Musalem/Goolsbee/Williams and JOLTS on Tue could materially shift the USD leg of this read
Asian range break, sharp rejection, retest of breakout level.
Fed-hike-driven USD strength broke the 0.8301 asian high late in the Asia session, and price spiked to a 0.8315 session high. A single bar then rejected it back to 0.8302 into the London open, and the pair is now retesting the breakout level near the 50% fib of the 0.8290–0.8315 rally. RSI(14) has cooled to ~62.
Support: 0.8301, 0.8290
Resistance: 0.83146, 0.8330
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 0.8300 inside the Asian range turns the breakout into a false break and exposes the 0.8290 asian low
Reclaim of the 0.8315 session high puts 0.8330, the zone top of the flagged 0.8305–0.8330 overbought cap, back in play
No scheduled USD/CHF data in the next 8h; oil/Iran or Fed headlines are the main risk to this read
Higher low at 0.8290, Asian-high breakout now being retested.
Price broke the 0.8301 Asian high into London open and spiked to a 0.8315 session high. A 10-pip rejection bar then sent it back to retest the breakout, which is holding 0.8301–0.8304 near the 50–61.8% fib of the 0.8290–0.8315 leg. The push tracks the oil-driven USD bid and CHF funding weakness, with the digest flagging 0.8305–0.8330 as an overbought cap zone.
Support: 0.8301, 0.8290
Resistance: 0.83146, 0.8330
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8301 asian high turns the breakout into a false break and exposes the 0.8290 swing low
Reclaim of the 0.8315 session high reopens the 0.8330 cap zone
No calendar events in the next 8h; oil and Hormuz headlines are the main swing factor for this read
06:46 UTC
Uptrend, extended into London open · RSI 77 · price 0.83122
Higher low at 0.8290, breakout above Asian range high.
The weekend gap lower was bought, and late Asia cleared the 0.8301 asia high and Friday's 0.8298 top, printing a 0.8315 session high on Fed-hike and oil-driven USD demand. RSI(14) sits near 77 heading into London open, with price pressing into the 0.8305–0.8330 zone the digest flags as an overbought uob cap.
Support: 0.83054, 0.8301, 0.82904
Resistance: 0.83146, 0.8330
What it said to watch
A pullback that holds the 38.2 fib at 0.8305 keeps the higher lows sequence intact
An M15 close back below the 0.8301 asia high turns the breakout into a false break and exposes the 0.8290 swing low
Acceptance above the 0.8315 session high opens the 0.8330 uob cap
06:31 UTC
Uptrend, RSI stretched · RSI 78 · price 0.83106
Higher lows through Asia, broke above the Asian high and 0.8300.
Monday opened on a small gap below Friday's close and climbed through the Asia session. It printed higher lows off the 0.8276 open, and the 0.82904 swing low held into the pre-London hours. Late Asia cleared the 0.8301 Asian high and the 0.8300 round number, putting in a 0.83125 session high. That move lifts RSI(14) to about 78 and puts price inside the 0.8305–0.8330 cap zone, while firm USD on October Fed hike bets and Iran/oil haven demand frames the move.
Support: 0.8301, 0.82904
Resistance: 0.83125, 0.8330
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8301 Asian high / 0.8300 would mark the breakout as a false break
Failure to extend past the 0.83125 session high into London open suggests the cap zone is capping
A pullback holding the 50–61.8% of the breakout leg (0.8301–0.8299) keeps the higher-low line intact
Loss of the 0.82904 swing low breaks the Asian higher-low line
Tue Fedspeak (Musalem, Goolsbee, Williams) and JOLTS could reset hike pricing
Higher lows off the 0.8290 Asian low; Asian high broken at London open.
The week opened with an 8-pip gap below Friday's close at 0.8286, and the gap filled in early Asia. Price then held a 0.8290–0.8301 Asian range. Into London open it cleared the Asian high and 0.8300 to a session high at 0.8305, with RSI(14) near 73, as a firm USD and the post-SNB CHF funding bid extend the move.
Support: 0.8301, 0.82904, 0.82857
Resistance: 0.83053, 0.8330
What it said to watch
Holding above the asian high at 0.8301 keeps the London breakout intact; a close back inside the Asian range reframes it as a false break
Session high at 0.8305 sits at the base of the 0.8305–0.8330 cap zone. This is the area to watch for rejection or acceptance
An M15 close below the asian low at 0.8290 breaks the rising support and the higher-low chain, with the Friday close gap level at 0.8286 next
No scheduled USD/CHF data in the next 8h; oil/Iran headlines are the main source of intraday shocks
Higher lows through Asia, breakout above 0.8300 psych.
Monday's Asia session filled the small weekend gap from the 0.8276 monday low and cleared Friday's 0.8298 high. A late-Asia breakout through the 0.8300 psych level set a 16-month session high at 0.8305, driven by firm Fed hike pricing and oil-linked USD demand. RSI(14) sits near 76 as price runs into UOB's 0.8305–0.8330 cap zone ahead of the London open.
Support: 0.8300, 0.8290, 0.8276
Resistance: 0.8305, 0.8330
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 0.8300 psych level puts price back inside the Asian range and weakens the breakout read
Acceptance above the 0.8305 session high opens the 0.8330 cap zone
A break of the 0.8290 swing low, the 50% of the Monday rally, together with rising support would undercut the higher-low chain
The London open is the first liquidity test of the breakout; no scheduled US or CH data falls in the next 8h
05:46 UTC
Uptrend, retesting session high · RSI 69 · price 0.83002
Higher low at 0.8290 after weekend gap; second test of 0.8301 asian high.
Monday Asia opened with an 8-pip gap below the 0.8286 Friday close. Price then rallied to a 0.8301 Asian high on USD firmness from October Fed hike bets. A higher low formed at 0.8290, and price is now back retesting 0.8300 late in the Asia session with RSI(14) near 69.
Support: 0.8290, 0.82857, 0.82763
Resistance: 0.8301, 0.8305
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8301 asian high clears the retest and brings the cited 0.8305–0.8330 resist zone into play
A stall at 0.8301 followed by a break of the 0.8290 higher low turns the retest into a rejection and exposes the 0.8286 friday close
London open (07:00 UTC) tends to expand the Asian range; a slip below the rising lows line and the 0.8276 monday low would negate the Asia uptrend
Higher lows since Asia gap open, price pressing the 0.8301 Asian high.
Monday Asia gapped below the fri close to the 0.8276 asian low, then rallied through Friday's 0.8298 high to a 0.8301 asian high as firm Fed hike bets kept USD bid. The 0.8290 pullback low held near the 38.2–50% zone of the Asian rally fib, and price is back retesting the asian high late in the Asia session with higher lows along rising support, RSI(14) at 64.
Support: 0.8290, 0.8286, 0.8276
Resistance: 0.8301, 0.8305
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8301 asian high opens the 0.8305–0.8330 uob zone flagged as overbought resistance
Break of the 0.8290 pullback low and rising support ends the higher-low chain and exposes the 0.8286 fri close gap
Failure to hold the 0.8276 asian low would fully reverse the Asian rally
London open in under 2h typically resets the Asian range; rejection at 0.8301 would mark a double cap at the asian high
Asian range 0.8276–0.8301, higher lows beneath session high.
Monday Asia filled the 8-pip weekend gap from the 0.8276 asian low and cleared Friday's 0.8298 high. It printed a 0.8301 session high on firm Fed hike pricing before rejection at 0.8300. The pullback held the 0.8290 swing low, and price is now coiling on higher lows into London open with ATR near 2.7 pips.
Support: 0.8290, 0.8286, 0.8276
Resistance: 0.8301, 0.8305
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8301 session high brings the 0.8305 cap zone into play
Break of the 0.8290 swing low ends the higher lows sequence and exposes the 61.8% fib at 0.8286
Loss of 0.8286 reopens the 0.8276 asian low and the gap-fill origin
London open is the first real test of the Asian range; no scheduled US or Swiss data in the next 8h
Higher lows off 0.8290 below the 0.8301 session high.
Monday's small weekend gap down to 0.8276 (asia low) was filled quickly. Asia then rallied on firm Fed hike bets to a session high at 0.8301, just above Friday's 0.8298 high, and met rejection. The pullback held the asia pb low at 0.8290 twice and is printing higher lows back toward 0.8296 ahead of London open.
Support: 0.8290, 0.8276, 0.8271
Resistance: 0.8301, 0.8305
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8301 session high puts the 0.8305–0.8330 cap zone in play
Loss of the 0.8290 asia pb low breaks the higher lows and reopens the 0.8276 asia low, then the 0.8271 friday low
The asia rally fib 50% sits near 0.8289, so a close below it deepens the retracement
London open is the first test of whether the Asian range holds
Gap filled, 0.8290–0.8301 range below session high.
Monday's Asia session opened about 8 pips below the Friday close, filled the gap within two hours and printed a 0.8301 session high on Fed-hike-driven USD demand. Price has since consolidated at 0.8290–0.8296, with a swing low at 0.8290 holding near the 38.2% retracement of the Asian leg and on rising support from the session low. RSI(14) is neutral near 47.
Support: 0.8290, 0.82857, 0.82763
Resistance: 0.8301, 0.8305
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8301 session high opens the 0.8305–0.8330 cap zone flagged as overbought resistance
Failure to hold the 0.8290 swing low and rising support exposes the Friday close at 0.8286
A loss of the 0.8276 session low would erase the Monday rally, and the London open could reset the Asian range
04:31 UTC
Asian rally stalled, lower highs since 0.8301 · RSI 45 · price 0.82931
Tight Asian range 0.8290–0.8301 after gap fill.
The 8-pip weekend gap below the 0.8286 friday close filled within the first hour. Price then ran to a 0.8301 asian high, a fresh high since May 2025 per the digest on Fed-hike pricing, before fading. The pullback found a floor at the 0.8290 asian low, near the 38.2–50% retrace of the Asian rally, and price is now pinned under a 0.8296 lower high with ATR compressed to about 3 pips.
Support: 0.8290, 0.8286, 0.8271
Resistance: 0.8296, 0.8301, 0.8305
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8301 asian high puts price into the 0.8305–0.8330 cap zone flagged as overbought resistance
Loss of the 0.8290 asian low exposes the 0.8286 friday close, then the 0.8271 friday low
Break of the lower-highs line from 0.8301 invalidates the stalling read
London open is the likely range-expansion window; Tuesday Fed speakers and JOLTS fall outside this read
Higher low at 0.8290 after Asian push through Friday high.
Monday opened with a gap down to the 0.8276 Asian low. Hawkish Fed pricing kept USD bid, and the gap filled in the first hour of Asia before price pushed through the 0.8298 Friday high to a 0.8301 Asian high. The pullback held 0.8290 three times, between the 38.2% and 50% of the Asian leg fib, for a higher low. Late in the Asia session price sits back at 0.8296 with RSI(14) near 54.
Support: 0.8290, 0.8286, 0.8276
Resistance: 0.8298, 0.8301, 0.8305
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 0.8301 Asian high puts the 0.8305–0.8330 cap zone in play
Loss of the 0.8290 pullback low breaks the higher low line and exposes the 0.8286 Friday close, then the 0.8276 Asian low
The London open is the first real liquidity test of the 0.8290–0.8301 range; no scheduled USD or CHF data falls in the next 8h
Asia leg higher, shallow pullback holding a higher low.
Monday Asia gapped 8 pips lower to the 0.8276 gap open and filled back through the 0.8286 Friday close (fri close) within the first hour. The leg then ran to a 0.8301 asia high just above Friday's prior high at 0.8298 before pulling back to the 0.8290 pullback low near the 38.2% of the Asia leg. Late in the Asia session, price is back at 0.8296, pressing the 0.8300 psych level as USD holds firm on October Fed hike pricing.
Support: 0.8290, 0.82857, 0.82763
Resistance: 0.8298, 0.8301, 0.8305
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8301 asia high clears 0.8300 psych and brings the 0.8305–0.8330 cap zone into play
Break of the 0.8290 pullback low breaks Asia rising support and exposes the 0.8286 fri close
Loss of the 0.8276 gap open would unwind the entire Asia leg
London open in ~3h typically expands the Asian range; no scheduled USD/CHF data in the next 8h
03:46 UTC
Asia rally stalled, pulling back · RSI 51 · price 0.82927
Lower highs off 0.8301 session high, 0.8290 pullback low holding.
Monday opened roughly 8 pips below the 0.8286 Friday close and filled the gap within the first hour. The Asia session then printed a session high at 0.8301, just above Friday's 0.8298 prior high, as the Fed rate-gap theme kept CHF heavy. Price has since stepped lower in a sequence of lower highs to a 0.8290 pullback low near the 38.2% retracement of the Asian rally, with RSI(14) neutral at 51 and price pinned to EMA20.
Support: 0.8290, 0.8286, 0.8276
Resistance: 0.8298, 0.8301, 0.8305
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8290 pullback low opens the 0.8286 Friday close and the 50% retracement of the Asian rally near 0.8289
Close above the 0.8301 session high clears the prior high and the lower-highs trendline, putting the 0.8305–0.8330 uob cap in play
A drop back to the 0.8276 Asia low would erase the Monday rally
London open in about 3.5h tends to expand the Asian range; no data is scheduled in the next 8h, with Fed speakers and JOLTS due Tuesday
Lower highs after false break above Friday high; Asian range 0.8276–0.8301.
Asia gapped lower to the 0.8276 asian low, then filled the gap and poked above Friday's 0.8298 high to a 0.8301 session high. That move failed as a false break, and price has faded under descending highs with ema20 capping near 0.8294. Price now sits on ema50 at 0.8290, between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the Asian leg, with RSI(14) soft near 37 despite the rate-gap USD/CHF backdrop.
Support: 0.8290, 0.82857, 0.82763
Resistance: 0.8294, 0.8301, 0.8305
What it said to watch
Sustained trade below the ema50 at 0.8290 into London open opens the friday close gap level at 0.8286
A break back above the ema20 and the descending highs line near 0.8294 revives a retest of the 0.8301 session high
A close above 0.8301 moves price into the 0.8305–0.8330 cap zone flagged as overbought resistance
Loss of the 0.8276 asian low negates the Monday up-leg entirely
No scheduled data before London open; Tuesday Fed speakers and JOLTS are the next event risk
Lower highs since session high; holding the 38.2% retracement.
Monday's Asia session opened on an 8-pip weekend gap down to the 0.8276 asian low. The gap filled fast, and price pushed through the 0.8298 friday high to a 0.8301 session high, but the break did not hold amid overbought-USD talk and a softer dollar tone. Price has since printed lower highs back to 0.8292, sitting on the 38.2% fib with the 0.8290 swing low just below.
Support: 0.8290, 0.8286, 0.8276
Resistance: 0.8298, 0.8301
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8290 swing low exposes the 50% fib near 0.8289 and the 0.8286 friday close (gap level)
Reclaim of the 0.8298 friday high and the 0.8301 session high negates the false-break read
London open in about 4h is likely to set direction out of the current Asian range
Oil/Iran headlines are the swing factor for USD tone in thin Asia trade
Gap-fill rally to 0.8301, shallow pullback into tight range.
Asia gapped down from the 0.8286 friday close to 0.8276, then filled and pushed to a marginal session high at 0.8301 over Friday's 0.8298 top. That extension failed to close above 0.8300. Price has since slipped under the ema20 into a tight 0.8290–0.8294 consolidation near the 38.2% of the Asian rally, RSI(14) around 40. USD is firm on hike bets but flagged overbought.
Support: 0.8290, 0.82857, 0.82763
Resistance: 0.8294, 0.8301, 0.8305
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.8301 session high puts the 0.8305 uob cap in play
Loss of the 0.8290 pullback low exposes the friday close at 0.8286 and the 50% fib
Break of the 0.8276 asian low unwinds the whole gap-fill rally
London open in ~4h typically expands the Asian range; ATR only ~3 pips now
02:46 UTC
Pullback after Asia rally, momentum cooling · RSI 44 · price 0.82922
Lower highs off 0.8301 session high, holding 38.2% retrace.
Monday Asia opened with an ~8-pip gap below the Friday close, then filled it and briefly pushed through the 0.8298 Friday high to a 0.8301 session high before fading along a fade line of lower highs. Price is at 0.8292, the 38.2% level of the Asia rally fib, with RSI(14) near 44 and supply capping just below the 0.8305 UOB cap cited in the digest as USD/CHF sits deeply overbought.
Support: 0.8290, 0.82857, 0.82763
Resistance: 0.8298, 0.8301, 0.8305
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.8301 session high negates the false break above the Friday high and puts the 0.8305 UOB cap in play
Loss of the 0.8290 pullback low exposes the Friday close at 0.8286, near the 50% of the Asia rally fib
Break of the fade line from 0.8301 would end the lower-high sequence
A slide back to the 0.8276 Asia low would fully reverse the post-gap rally
London open is the next liquidity test of the Asian range; no scheduled data until Tuesday's Musalem and JOLTS
Monday opened with an 8-pip gap below Friday's 0.8286 close. The gap filled in the first hour of Asia as rate-gap USD demand resumed, but the push to a 0.8301 session high only briefly cleared Friday's 0.8298 prior high before fading. Price now sits on the pullback low at 0.8292, the 38.2% fib of the Asia rally, under a lower-highs trendline with RSI(14) near 43.
Support: 0.82916, 0.82857, 0.82763
Resistance: 0.8298, 0.8301
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8292 pullback low opens a retest of the fri close at 0.8286, with the 0.8276 gap low beyond
Reclaim of the 0.8298 prior high and the 0.8301 session high negates the false break read
Break of the lower-highs trendline from 0.8301 shifts the micro structure back to higher highs
Oil/Iran headlines are the swing factor for USD during a thin Asia session
Weekend gap filled, false break of Friday high, testing 38.2%.
Asia session filled the weekend gap from the 0.8276 gap low and poked above Friday's high to a 0.8301 Asia high, then slipped back under it. Price now rests on the pullback low near 0.8292, the 38.2% retrace of the Asia rally, with RSI(14) at 43. The pair is still just below the 0.8305–0.8330 area that analysts flag as the overbought uob cap.
Support: 0.8292, 0.8286, 0.8276
Resistance: 0.8301, 0.8330
What it said to watch
Close below the 0.8292 pullback low opens the friday close at 0.8286, then the 0.8276 gap low
Recovery above the 0.8301 asia high puts the 0.8305–0.8330 uob cap in play
London open liquidity likely to test the Asia range; no US or Swiss data in the next 8h
02:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend, first pullback · RSI 49 · price 0.82925
Weekend gap filled, brief break above Friday high rejected.
The weekend gap down to the 0.8276 Asian low filled within the first hour of Asia and ran to a 0.8301 session high, with the rate-gap theme of a dovish SNB against a hike-leaning Fed keeping the franc heavy. The poke above the 0.8296–0.8298 Friday high did not hold. Price is back on the 38.2% fib near 0.8292, just under EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral at 49.
Support: 0.8292, 0.8286, 0.8276
Resistance: 0.8298, 0.8301
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 38.2% fib at 0.8292 exposes the fri close and 61.8% retracement at 0.8286
Reclaim of the friday high at 0.8298 and the 0.8301 session high revives the breakout read toward the 0.8305–0.8330 zone flagged by UOB
Loss of the 0.8276 asian low unwinds the entire gap-fill leg
London open around 07:00 UTC typically expands the tight Asian range (ATR ~3 pips)
Asia HH/HL off the gap low; brief push above prior high rejected.
Monday's Asia session reversed an ~8-pip opening gap lower from the 0.8276 gap low. It ran through Friday's 0.8298 prior high to a session high at 0.8301, with the Fed-SNB rate-gap theme keeping CHF heavy. Supply capped just above 0.8300 and price has eased to 0.8294, sitting on the 0.8293 pullback low and holding the 38.2% of the Asia rally fib, with RSI(14) cooled to ~57.
Support: 0.82931, 0.82857, 0.82763
Resistance: 0.8298, 0.8301
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.8301 session high revives the breakout through the prior high and 0.8300 psych
Loss of the 0.8293 pullback low exposes the 50% of the Asia rally fib near 0.8289 and the friday close at 0.8286
Break below 0.8286 undoes the post-gap recovery and puts the 0.8276 gap low back in view
Weekend Iran/oil headlines remain the swing factor for USD into the London open
Gap filled, HH/HL chain in Asia, first pullback off 0.8301.
Asia session opened with an 8-pip gap lower to the 0.8276 session low on thin weekend flow. The gap to the 0.8286 Friday close filled within the first hour, and price pushed on to a 0.8301 session high, just through the 0.8298 Friday high, in line with the Fed-SNB rate-gap theme. Rejection there has pulled price back to 0.8294, sitting on the ema20 and the 23.6% of the Asia rally fib, RSI(14) cooled to about 55.
Support: 0.8293, 0.8286, 0.8276
Resistance: 0.8298, 0.8301, 0.8305
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8293 pullback low exposes the 38.2–50% Asia rally fib and the 0.8286 Friday close
Hold above the 0.8298 Friday high and a close above the 0.8301 session high opens the 0.8305–0.8330 uob zone
Failure back toward the 0.8276 session low would erase the Asia gap-fill rally
London open liquidity and weekend Iran/oil headlines could extend the Asian range in either direction
01:16 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at 0.8300 · RSI 64 · price 0.82951
Asia HH/HL chain after weekend gap fill, testing Friday's high.
Monday's Asia session opened with a roughly 9-pip gap lower that filled within the first hour. Price then ground up to a 0.8301 session high, just above Friday's 0.8298 top, before a rejection eased it back to the 0.8294 asia pivot. The CHF rate-gap theme keeps the pair near 16-month highs, and RSI(14) at 64 has cooled off the rally.
Support: 0.8294, 0.8286, 0.8276
Resistance: 0.8301, 0.8305
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8301 session high puts the 0.8305–0.8330 resist zone in play
Failure to hold the 0.8294 asia pivot exposes the 0.8286 fri close
Break below the 0.8276 gap low unwinds the Asia rally
London open in ~6h is the first real liquidity test of the Asian range
US JOLTS and Fed speakers Tue could shift the read
01:03 UTC
Asia-open rally, stalling just under 0.8300 · RSI 57 · price 0.82951
Gap filled, Friday high broken, pulling back from new Asian high.
Asia session opened with a gap down to 0.8276. The gap filled within the first hour and the move carried through the friday high at 0.8298 to an asia high of 0.8301, extending last week's rate-gap bid on CHF. Thin flow since then has faded price back to the 0.8295 asia pivot. RSI(14) has cooled to ~57, and the 61.8% of the Asia rally sits right at the friday close, 0.8286.
Support: 0.82945, 0.82857, 0.8271
Resistance: 0.8298, 0.8301, 0.8305
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the asia high at 0.8301 extends the breakout into the uob zone at 0.8305–0.8330
Failure to hold the asia pivot at 0.8295 turns the Friday-high break into a false break, with the friday close at 0.8286 (61.8% of the Asia rally) next
Loss of the friday close exposes the friday low at 0.8271
Weekend Iran/oil headlines on thin Asia liquidity could shift this read before London open
Gap down at open filled, higher lows since 0.8276, testing Friday high.
Monday's roughly 9-pip gap down to 0.8276 filled in the first hour of the Asia session. The Asian rally has since carried back to the 0.8298 Friday high, just under the 0.8300 round number, with higher lows intact along the Asia trendline. RSI(14) sits near 68 in thin flow, with USD still firm on the Fed rate-gap theme despite Friday's oil-led dip.
Support: 0.8298, 0.82953, 0.82857
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.8305
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8300 round number opens the 0.8305 resist zone flagged in the digest
Loss of the 0.8295 swing low breaks the Asia trendline and puts the 0.8286 Friday close back in view
A pullback of about 38–50% of the Asian rally holding above the Friday close keeps the higher-low read intact
Oil and Iran headlines can jolt thin Asian liquidity; JOLTS and Fed speakers Tue are the next scheduled risk
00:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend since the Monday open · RSI 67 · price 0.82987
Gap down filled, higher lows, testing Friday high.
The Asia session open gapped about 8 pips below the 0.8286 Friday close to a 0.8276 gap low. The gap filled within the first hour on the firm-USD, rate-gap theme, and price pushed to a 0.8299 session high, retesting Friday's 0.8298 peak just under the 0.8300 round number. RSI(14) is near 67 and ATR is only ~3.6 pips in thin early-week liquidity.
Support: 0.82953, 0.82857, 0.82763
Resistance: 0.8299, 0.8300, 0.8305
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8300 round number clears the Friday and session high, bringing the 0.8305 cap zone cited by analysts into range
Break below the 0.8295 pullback low puts price back inside Friday's range, with the fri close at 0.8286 next
A return to the 0.8276 gap low would undo the Monday open recovery
Thin Asia liquidity; London open is the next test of whether the session high holds
00:16 UTC
Uptrend off the weekly open, momentum steady · RSI 66 · price 0.82981
Gap filled, higher lows into Friday high.
The weekly open gapped about 9 pips below the 0.8286 Friday close, bottoming at 0.8276. The gap filled within the first hour of the Asia session as the rate-gap USD bid carried over from last week. Price has since stair-stepped along a rising trendline to retest the 0.8298–0.8299 Friday high, with RSI(14) near 66 and an Asia pivot at 0.8295 as the nearest higher low.
Support: 0.82953, 0.82857, 0.82763
Resistance: 0.8299, 0.8305
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8299 Friday high opens the 0.8305 cited cap zone flagged by analysts
Loss of the 0.8295 Asia pivot and the rising trendline turns the Friday high into a rejection and reopens the 0.8286 Friday close
A move back below the 0.8276 weekly open low would negate the gap-fill rally
Thin Asia-session liquidity until London open; US JOLTS and Fed speakers Tue, ADP/PCE Wed carry the next event risk