USD/JPY AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Friday, 2 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/JPY 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
20:02 UTC
Sideways, range compressing · RSI 51 · price 157.823
Lower high at 158.22 and higher low at 156.95 inside the 156.38–158.45 week range.
The dominant move this week ran from Wednesday's Asia week low at 156.38 to Thursday's early-London week high at 158.45. Since then, a lower high at the 158.22 Friday high and a higher low at the 156.95 NFP low have compressed price into mid-range. Friday's payrolls miss drove a false break through the 157.47 London low, but it was fully reversed during NY hours as JPY failed to hold the gains. Price is now back just above EMA(20) and EMA(50) near 157.75–157.78, with RSI(14) flat around 51 and the post-NFP high at 157.91 capping.
Support: 157.47, 156.95, 156.38
Resistance: 157.91, 158.22, 158.45
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 157.91 post-NFP high reopens the 158.22 Friday high and the lower highs line
Acceptance above the 158.45 week high runs into the 158.00+ intervention-risk zone flagged for Japanese authorities
H1 close back below the 157.47 London low puts the 61.8% fib near 157.17 back in play
Break of the 156.95 NFP low breaks the higher lows line and exposes the 156.38 week low
ISM Services Mon Oct 5 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read; Japan Labor Cash Earnings Tue 23:30 GMT follows
USD/JPY printed the 156.375 low in Wednesday's Asia session, then Thursday's Asian-hours rally set the 158.45 week high. Highs have stepped lower since, at 158.26, the 158.22 Fri high and now the 157.91 session high. The weak NFP print drove price to the 156.95 NFP low in the first hour of NY, a false break of the 157.22 Thu low that was fully retraced as yen weakness offset broad USD softness. Price now sits flat on EMA(20) near 157.77 with RSI(14) neutral around 51, just above the 38.2% fib of the Wed–Thu rally at 157.66.
Support: 157.77, 157.22, 156.95
Resistance: 157.91, 158.22, 158.45
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 157.91 session high and the lower-highs line opens a retest of the 158.22 Fri high and the 158.45 week high; the digest flags intervention-warning risk around 158.00
Failure to hold the 157.22 Thu low exposes the 156.95 NFP low; a break there ends the higher-lows sequence from 156.375
Loss of EMA(20) near 157.77 would put the range midpoint and the 50% fib at 157.41 back in play
ISM Services PMI Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
Japan Labor Cash Earnings Tue 23:30 GMT (f/c 3.7%) is the next yen-specific risk
18:03 UTC
Sideways within week range, lower highs since Thursday · RSI 51 · price 157.803
Lower highs off the 158.451 week high against a higher low at 156.945 versus Wednesday's 156.375, a contracting range.
USDJPY set the 156.375 week low in Wednesday's Asia session, then rallied to the 158.451 week high at Thursday's London open. Since then a lower-high line has capped each bounce beneath 158.00 psych, where intervention risk is cited. The soft NFP print forced a false break of Thursday's 157.221 low to an NFP low of 156.945, but NY hours erased the drop despite broad USD weakness, leaving price near 157.80, marginally above EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) back near 51 and the higher-low line from Wednesday intact.
Support: 157.47, 156.945, 156.375
Resistance: 157.914, 158.00, 158.451
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 157.914 post-NFP high and the lower-high line near 158.00 psych reopens the 158.451 week high; official FX jawboning risk rises around 158.00
Failure to hold Friday's 157.47 London low puts the 156.945 NFP low back in view; a break there also breaches the higher-low line toward the 156.375 week low
ISM Services PMI Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) and Japan Labor Cash Earnings Tue 23:30 GMT could materially shift this read
17:03 UTC
Recovering within a contracting range below 158.25 · RSI 50 · price 157.831
Lower highs from 158.45 against higher lows from 156.38.
The dominant move came from Wednesday's Asia-session low at 156.38 to the 158.45 week high early in Thursday's London session, with each later lower high (158.26, 158.22) capped under the 158.00 psych zone. The soft NFP print drove a spike through the pre-nfp low to 156.95, but the NY session saw a sharp rejection. Price is back above EMA(20), EMA(50) and the 38.2% fib at 157.66 as yen weakness outweighed USD softness, and RSI(14) sits flat near 50.
Support: 157.66, 157.47, 156.95
Resistance: 158.00, 158.26, 158.45
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.26 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 158.45 week high back in play, where intervention rhetoric risk rises
Failure to hold the 38.2% fib at 157.66 and the 157.47 pre-nfp low would turn this read into a range-bound one
A break of the 156.95 nfp low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 156.38 week low
US ISM Services PMI Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
Japan Labor Cash Earnings Tue 23:30 GMT is the next domestic test for the yen
The week's dominant leg was Thursday's Asia-to-London rally off Wednesday's 156.38 low to the 158.45 week high. Since then H1 has printed a sequence of lower highs at 158.26 and the 158.22 lower high, tracked by a descending lower-high line now near 158.00 psych. Friday's soft NFP (29K vs 90K) briefly took price through 157.00 to the 156.95 nfp low, but NY hours retraced the whole dip. Price is back at 157.82, just above a flat EMA(20) near 157.75 (ema20), with RSI(14) at a neutral 49.
Support: 157.75, 157.47, 156.95
Resistance: 158.00, 158.22, 158.45
What it said to watch
H1 close above 158.00 psych and the lower-high line breaks the sequence of lower highs; 158.22 lower high and the 158.45 week high sit above
Failure to hold the ema20 near 157.75 and then the 157.47 london low (near the 50% of the Wed-Thu rally) reopens the 156.95 nfp low
ISM Services PMI Mon Oct 5 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read; a hot print would revive the USD bid that NFP dented
MoF verbal intervention rhetoric as price approaches 158.00 psych could cap the rebound
Lower highs off the 158.45 week high, higher lows from Wednesday's 156.38 week low.
Thursday's Asia-session advance from Wednesday's 156.38 week low topped at the 158.45 week high. Price has since printed a sequence of lower highs at 158.26 and 157.81, and the Tokyo CPI beat knocked it back under 158.00. The NFP miss (29K vs 90K) took price to the 156.95 NFP low, just above the 61.8% fib of the Wed–Thu advance and the rising trendline. The pair then fully reversed during NY hours to 157.69, which is the 38.2% retracement and just under the EMA(20)/EMA(50) cluster near 157.72. RSI(14) at 48 sits mid-range, consistent with the week-wide range.
Support: 157.47, 156.95, 156.38
Resistance: 157.81, 158.26, 158.45
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 157.81 pre-nfp high and the lower-high line near 158.05 would break the descending sequence and expose the 158.26 lower high and 158.45 week high
Failure to hold the 157.47 london low exposes the 156.95 nfp low and the rising trendline from the week low
A close below 156.95 would mark a lower low and open the path toward the 156.38 week low
ISM Services PMI Mon Oct 5 14:00 GMT (f/c 55.7) is the next scheduled USD catalyst that could materially shift this read
MoF verbal intervention rhetoric near the 158 handle could cap retests of the week high
14:02 UTC
Pullback from week high, lower highs since Thursday · RSI 40 · price 157.543
The Wednesday–Thursday rally ran from the 156.38 Asia low to the 158.45 week high, where supply capped it inside the intervention-risk zone. Since then the pair has printed a sequence of lower highs: the hot Tokyo CPI pushed it back under the 158.00 round number, and the latest lower high came at 157.81 in London. The NFP miss bar dipped through the 157.47 london low to the 156.95 nfp low, past the fib 61.8 of the rally at 157.17, but price has since reclaimed 157.47 and sits below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 157.47, 157.17, 156.95
Resistance: 157.81, 158.00, 158.45
What it said to watch
An H1 close back below the 157.47 london low that also loses the fib 61.8 at 157.17 reopens the 156.95 nfp low and the rising lows line from Wednesday
An H1 close above the 157.81 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and brings the 158.00 round number and the lower highs line into play
MoF verbal intervention headlines near the 158.00–158.45 week high zone could cap any recovery
US Factory Orders at 14:00 GMT today; ISM Services on Monday at 14:00 GMT is the larger risk to the post-NFP USD read
Lower highs from 158.45; NFP bar broke below London lows to the 61.8% fib.
The Wednesday-to-Thursday rally from the 156.38 week low stalled at the 158.45 week high through Thursday's Asia-London hours, and the pair has since printed a series of lower highs at 158.26, 158.22 and the 157.81 lower high. The NFP miss (29K vs 90K, wages 0.1% m/m) knocked price through Friday's 157.50 London lows to a 156.95 NFP low in the first NY hour. Price now sits on the 61.8% retracement of the rally near 157.17, below EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 26 in oversold territory.
Support: 156.95, 156.65, 156.38
Resistance: 157.50, 157.81, 158.45
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 156.95 NFP low extends the break toward Wednesday's 156.65 wed lows and the 156.38 week low
A recovery back above the 157.50 London lows would turn the NFP move into a false break, with the 157.81 lower high next above
A push through the lower-highs trendline from the 158.45 week high would negate the correction read
US Factory Orders at 14:00 UTC is a secondary USD input after NFP; ISM Services on Mon Oct 5 sets the next USD read
Lower highs from 158.45 week high, testing 38.2% retrace.
USDJPY rallied from Wednesday's Asia-session week low at 156.38 to a 158.45 week high in Thursday's Asia session, then printed lower highs. The hot Tokyo CPI print overnight pulled price to a friday low of 157.47 by London open. Price now sits near the 38.2% retrace at 157.66, below the ema20 at 157.82 and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 41. Supply has capped each push back toward the 158.00 round number, the intervention-sensitive zone flagged all week.
Support: 157.47, 157.22, 156.38
Resistance: 157.82, 158.00, 158.45
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT lands inside the current bar and could materially shift this read
H1 close above the ema20 at 157.82 and the lower-highs trendline near 158.08 would neutralise the pullback read
Failure to hold the friday low at 157.47 exposes the thu ny low at 157.22, near the 61.8% retrace
A break below 157.22 unwinds the mid-week rally structure toward the week low at 156.38
Intervention headlines near the 158.00 round number and the 158.45 week high would change the read on any upside test
11:02 UTC
Uptrend stalling, pulling back from week high · RSI 41 · price 157.688
Lower highs off 158.45 inside a 157.22–158.45 range.
The rally off Wednesday's Asia-session week low at 156.38 peaked at the 158.45 week high early Thursday. Rejection there has produced a sequence of lower highs along the descending trendline, leaving price inside a 157.22–158.45 range. Hot Tokyo CPI pushed price back below the 158.00 round number and the EMA(20), now near 157.83. The Friday low at 157.47 printed around the London open, close to the 50% retracement of the Wednesday–Thursday advance, with RSI(14) in the low 40s.
Support: 157.47, 157.22, 156.38
Resistance: 157.83, 158.00, 158.45
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (~90 min) could materially shift this read; the digest flags 157.60 and 158.00 as reaction pivots
H1 close back above the ema20 and the 158.00 round number weakens the lower-highs read
Failure to hold the friday low at 157.47 exposes the thu ny low at 157.22, near the 61.8% retracement
A break below 157.22 opens a deeper retracement toward the week low at 156.38
Approach of the 158.45 week high raises MoF intervention-headline risk
Lower highs below 158.45, retesting old range top.
After Wednesday's 156.38 week low, USD/JPY broke out of the Monday–Tuesday 157.00–157.70 range in Thursday's Asia session and saw rejection at the 158.45 week high three times. Two lower highs followed, at 158.26 and 158.22. Today's London-open slide from 157.92, after the hot Tokyo CPI and a softer DXY, put price back below EMA(20) near 157.83 and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 35. Price is now retesting the old range top around 157.50–157.70, just past the 38.2% retrace of the Wed–Thu impulse, with the 157.47 session low and Thursday's 157.22 swing low from the NY-hours ISM spike below.
Support: 157.47, 157.22, 156.38
Resistance: 157.83, 158.22, 158.45
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read: per the digest, a strong print risks a retake of 158.00 toward the 158.45 week high, where intervention risk sits
Hourly close below the 157.47 session low exposes the 157.22 swing low near the 61.8% of the Wed–Thu impulse
Failure to hold 157.22 breaks the week's higher-low sequence and opens the path to the 156.38 week low
Recovery above EMA(20) at 157.83 and the 158.22 lower high would neutralise the lower-high structure
09:02 UTC
Pullback within weekly gain, momentum fading · RSI 35 · price 157.577
Lower highs since Thursday's peak; rising trendline from week low broken.
Thursday's Asia-session rally from Wednesday's 156.38 week low met rejection at the 158.45 week high, just under the 200-DMA where intervention concerns cap the pair. Since then the pair has printed lower highs at 158.26 and 158.22, and the hot Tokyo CPI pushed it back below 158.00. London-open selling has taken price under the EMA20 and EMA50 and through the rising trendline from the week low. Price now sits between the 38.2% and 50% levels of the week impulse fib, with RSI(14) in the mid-30s and the session low at 157.47 holding for now.
Support: 157.47, 157.22, 156.38
Resistance: 157.85, 158.22, 158.45
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read; a strong print or hot wages would put the 158.45 week high back in focus
An H1 close back above the 157.85 ema20 and the rising trendline would mark the trendline break as a false break
Failure to hold the 157.47 session low exposes the 157.22 thu low, near the 61.8% level of the week impulse fib
A break above the 158.22 lower high would end the lower-highs sequence; MoF verbal warnings near 158.45 remain a cap
Thursday's Asia-session breakout above the 157.70 range top ran to a 158.45 week high on the BoJ-driven yen sell-off. It was rejected under the 158.5 cap, and lower highs at 158.26 and 158.22 followed. Friday's hot Tokyo CPI pulled price back below EMA(20) and EMA(50) into the London open, with RSI(14) near 35, the friday low at 157.52 and price probing the rising trendline from Wednesday's 156.38 low; below that sit the 50% fib of the Wed–Thu impulse at 157.41 and the thu low at 157.22.
Support: 157.52, 157.41, 157.22
Resistance: 157.88, 158.22, 158.45
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 50% fib at 157.41 undercuts the higher-low sequence and exposes the thu low at 157.22
Failure to hold the friday low at 157.52 confirms a break of the rising trendline
Recovery above the ema20 near 157.88 and the 158.22 lower high revives the breakout read toward the week high
US NFP at 12:30 GMT today could materially shift this read; the 158.45 week high sits just under the 158.49 200-DMA cap
Thursday's Asia-session impulse from Wednesday's 156.375 low ran to the 158.45 week high by London. The pair was capped there twice, and the dip to the Thursday low at 157.22 during the ISM-driven NY session was absorbed, but each rally since has printed a lower high, at 158.26 and then 158.22. The hot Tokyo CPI print and intervention caution pulled price back under EMA(20) and the 158.00 psych level in Asia. RSI(14) has eased to the low 40s while price holds above the 38.2% retrace of the impulse.
Support: 157.53, 157.41, 157.22
Resistance: 158.00, 158.22, 158.45
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT today could materially shift this read; event range likely exceeds the ~22-pip H1 ATR
H1 close back above 158.00 and the lower-highs line reopens the 158.22 lower high and 158.45 week high, where intervention risk is the brake
Failure to hold the 157.53 session low exposes the 50% fib at 157.41, then Thursday's 157.22 thu low
MoF/Katayama verbal intervention language near 158.45 could cap any test of the week high
Lower highs below 158.45 after range break; retesting old range top.
USD/JPY broke out of the Monday–Wednesday 156.40–157.70 range late Wednesday into Thursday's Asia session as October BoJ hike bets faded, printing the week high at 158.45 in early London before stalling in the intervention-sensitive zone. Since then the pair has carved a lower-highs sequence at 158.45, 158.26 and 158.22. Hot Tokyo CPI has pulled price below EMA(20) to the 157.75 Asian low, which is now retesting the old range top. Thursday's NY low at 157.22, near the 61.8% retracement of the Wednesday–Thursday impulse, is where demand stepped in during the data-driven swing.
Support: 157.75, 157.50, 157.22
Resistance: 157.95, 158.26, 158.45
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~7h) could materially shift this read; a hot print would put the 158.45 week high back in focus amid intervention risk
An H1 close below the 157.75 Asian low and the rising support near 157.60 exposes the 157.50 weekly open and then the 157.22 Thu NY low
An H1 close back above EMA(20) near 157.95 and the 158.26 lower high would break the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 157.22 Thu NY low (61.8% fib) would undo most of the range break
Lower highs below 158.45 after Thursday range break.
After ranging 156.38–157.70 from Monday to Wednesday, with the week low at 156.38 set in Wednesday's Asia session, USD/JPY broke the range in Thursday's Asia session. The move reached the 158.45 week high, where supply capped repeated tests into the London open. The ISM prices-paid spike then wicked to the 157.22 thu low near the 61.8% of the Wednesday–Thursday impulse, and since then the pair has printed a lower high at 158.26 and again at 158.22. The hot Tokyo CPI pulled price back below 158.00 and the ema20 (~157.96), with RSI(14) easing to ~42 and the higher lows line from Wednesday still intact beneath.
Support: 157.76, 157.22, 156.38
Resistance: 157.96, 158.26, 158.45
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~7.5h) could materially shift this read; the 158.45 week high is the level a strong print would test
H1 close above the 158.26 lower high breaks the lower highs line and reopens the week high
Failure to hold the 157.76 asian low exposes the 157.22 thu low and the higher lows trendline near 157.55
Reclaim of the ema20 at ~157.96 and 158.00 would neutralise the post-CPI pullback
Mon–Wed range broken higher Thursday; lower highs and rising lows now compressing below 158.45.
USDJPY held a 156.38–157.70 range from Monday's London open through Wednesday, with the week low printed in Wednesday's Asia session. Thursday's Asia-session breakout then carried price to a 158.45 week high as US yields lifted the dollar. The ISM release in NY hours knocked it back to the 157.22 Thursday low near the 61.8% fib, and the hot Tokyo CPI only produced a dip to the 157.78 Asia low. Since then, lower highs at 158.26 and 158.22 against rising lows have compressed price into a pennant just under EMA(20) at 157.97, with RSI(14) flat at 47.
Support: 157.78, 157.22, 156.38
Resistance: 157.97, 158.22, 158.45
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 UTC today could materially shift this read; AHE vs 0.3% MoM is likely the deciding component
H1 close below the 157.78 Asia low breaks the pennant's rising-lows line and exposes the 157.22 Thursday low and 61.8% fib
Reclaim of EMA(20) and a close above the 158.22 lower high reopens the 158.45 week high, where intervention rhetoric is a live risk
Loss of 157.22 would put price back inside the Mon–Wed range, with the 156.38 week low below
Higher lows from 156.38; coiling 157.78–158.22 below the 158.45 week high.
USDJPY broke out of the Monday–Wednesday 156.40–157.70 range in Thursday's Asia session and tagged a 158.45 week high. Intervention jitters around the ISM release then flushed it to 157.22 in NY hours, close to the 61.8% retracement of the week's impulse, and the higher-low line from Wednesday's 156.38 week low held. Since then price has coiled between today's 157.78 Asia low and a 158.22 session high, with RSI(14) at 50 and price sitting on a flat EMA(20) near 157.98, even as the hot Tokyo CPI print failed to lift the yen.
Support: 157.78, 157.41, 157.22
Resistance: 158.22, 158.45
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read and break the 157.78–158.22 coil
An H1 close above the 158.22 session high puts the 158.45 week high back in play, where intervention rhetoric has already capped price once
Failure to hold the 157.78 asia low exposes the 50% fib at 157.41 and the ISM low at 157.22
A break below the ISM low and the higher-low line would invalidate the uptrend read
Higher lows since Wednesday's low; lower highs capping under 158.45.
USD/JPY turned higher from the 156.38 week low in Wednesday's Asia session and reached a 158.45 week high around Thursday's London open, carried by broad USD strength and fading October BoJ hike bets. Thursday's NY-session swing retraced about 60% of that impulse to the thu ny low at 157.22. Demand then reappeared at Friday's asia low of 157.78 after the hot Tokyo CPI, leaving price coiled just above ema20 between a higher-low trendline and a lower-highs line under the week high.
Support: 157.78, 157.22
Resistance: 158.26, 158.45
What it said to watch
NFP at 12:30 UTC today (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read in either direction
An H1 close above the thu ny high at 158.26 breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 158.45 week high, where intervention rhetoric has capped the pair
Failure to hold ema20 and the asia low at 157.78 breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the thu ny low at 157.22
A drop below 157.22 would undercut the impulse fib's 61.8% zone and weaken the uptrend read
01:02 UTC
Uptrend since Thursday, momentum flattening below week high · RSI 55 · price 158.113
Mon–Wed 156.40–157.70 range broken higher; now consolidating 157.80–158.26.
USD/JPY broke the 157.70 range top in Thursday's Asia session after the BoJ Summary of Opinions trimmed October hike bets, and the impulse from Wednesday's 156.38 low stalled at the 158.45 week high. The ISM-driven drop during NY hours found demand at the 157.22 ism low, near the 61.8% retracement of the Wed–Thu impulse and on the higher-lows line. Since then price has compressed between the 157.78 cpi low and the 158.26 thu ny high, holding above EMA(20) at 157.99 with RSI(14) near 55, as the hot Tokyo CPI print produced only a brief dip.
Support: 157.99, 157.78, 157.22
Resistance: 158.26, 158.45, 159.00
What it said to watch
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read; a strong print puts the 158.45 week high back in focus
H1 close above the 158.26 thu ny high reopens the week high; acceptance above it brings the 159.00 round number into view, a zone flagged for intervention risk
Failure to hold the 157.78 cpi low and ema20 exposes the 157.22 ism low and the higher-lows trendline
An H1 close back below 157.70 would turn Thursday's breakout into a false break of the prior range
00:03 UTC
Uptrend since Wednesday's low, stalling below week high · RSI 54 · price 157.914
Mon–Wed range broken higher; consolidating 157.80–158.26 above range top.
After three sessions boxed between the 156.38 week low and the 157.70 range top, USDJPY broke out in Thursday's Asia session as the BoJ Summary of Opinions trimmed October hike bets. The pair met rejection twice at the 158.45 week high during London, which the digest ties to intervention jitters. The NY spike to the 157.22 thu ny low tagged the 61.8% retrace of the week's impulse and was absorbed, keeping the higher lows intact. Price now sits just under EMA(20) near 157.96 and the 158.00 round number, still above EMA(50), with RSI(14) back to mid-50s and momentum flattening.
Support: 157.70, 157.22, 156.38
Resistance: 158.00, 158.26, 158.45
What it said to watch
Tokyo CPI actuals pending: a hot core print (≥2.5%) could push price back below the 158.00 round number toward the range top at 157.70
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 158.45 week high breaks the double rejection and extends the breakout
H1 close back below the 157.70 range top puts the breakout in question
Failure to hold the 157.22 thu ny low breaks the higher lows line and the 61.8% retrace
Reclaim of the 158.26 thu ny high reopens a test of the week high