Lower highs from 158.45 against higher lows from 156.38; contracting range.
The dominant move came across Thursday's Asia-London sessions. A rally from Wednesday's 156.38 low reached the 158.45 week high, and lower highs at 158.22 and 157.91 have capped price since. Friday's NFP miss drove a false break to the 156.95 NFP low during NY hours, which was fully reclaimed as the yen again failed to hold gains despite hot Tokyo CPI. The Asia open has price pinned at EMA(20) and just under the 157.82 weekly open, holding above the 38.2% fib at 157.66 with RSI(14) flat near 51.
Support: 157.66, 157.41, 156.95
Resistance: 157.82, 158.22, 158.45
What it said to watch
H1 close above the lower-highs trendline near 157.95 and the 158.22 lower high reopens the 158.45 week high, where intervention risk is flagged
Failure to hold the 38.2% fib at 157.66 exposes the 50% fib at 157.41 and the rising-lows line
A break of the 156.95 NFP low would undo the post-payrolls reversal and the higher-low sequence
ISM Services (Mon 14:00 UTC, f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read; Japan Labor Cash Earnings follows Tue 23:30 UTC
Higher lows from Wed's 156.375 against lower highs from the 158.451 week high.
Thursday's Asia-to-London rally from Wednesday's 156.375 swing low set the week high at 158.451. Every push since has stalled lower, at the 158.218 lower high and then Friday's 157.914 rebound high. Friday's NFP miss drove a NY-open flush to the 156.945 NFP low, through Thursday's 157.22 low. That false break was fully reclaimed into the close, back above EMA(20) and EMA(50), in line with the digest's read that the yen keeps failing to hold gains despite hot Tokyo CPI. Price now sits quietly at the Sunday open between the rising swing-low line and the lower-highs line, with EMA(20) and the 157.47 pre-NFP low as the nearest floors.
Support: 157.47, 156.945
Resistance: 157.914, 158.218, 158.451
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 157.914 rebound high breaks the lower-highs sequence and exposes 158.218 and the 158.451 week high
158.00–158.45 overlaps the intervention-risk zone flagged in the digest; MoF headlines could cap any approach abruptly
ISM Services PMI Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7, high impact) is the main catalyst for resolving the coil
Loss of EMA(20) and a close below the 157.47 pre-NFP low brings the 50% retracement of the Wed–Thu rally (~157.41) and the 156.945 NFP low into view
Japan Labor Cash Earnings Tue 23:30 UTC; a print at or above 4.0% would test the rising swing-low line
21:03 UTC
Range after Thursday impulse, lower highs since peak · RSI 52 · price 157.837
Lower highs below 158.45; NFP dip to 156.95 fully reversed.
Wednesday's Asia-session drop to the 156.38 week low was retraced by a Tokyo-to-London rally on Thursday to the 158.45 week high. Since then the pair has printed lower highs at 158.22 and the 157.91 post-NFP high, with supply showing up near the 158.00 intervention-risk zone flagged in the digest. Friday's NFP miss briefly broke below the 61.8% retracement of the Wednesday-Thursday impulse to the 156.95 NFP low, but the move fully reversed within three bars. That leaves price at 157.84, just above EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) flat near 52 and ATR around 26 pips.
Support: 157.47, 156.95, 156.38
Resistance: 157.91, 158.22, 158.45
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 157.91 post-NFP high and the lower-highs trendline would break the lower-high sequence and expose the 158.22 lower high
Acceptance above 158.45 week high would bring the 158.00+ intervention-risk area into focus
Failure to hold the 157.47 London low from Friday reopens the 156.95 NFP low and the 61.8% fib
US ISM Services PMI Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
A sustained break of the 156.95 NFP low would put the 156.38 week low back in play