USD/JPY AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Monday, 5 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/JPY 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:03 UTC
Sideways near highs, range compressing · RSI 48 · price 157.903
156.94–158.45 range since Thursday; lower highs against higher lows.
The Wed–Thu rally from 156.38 topped at the 158.45 thu high in Thursday's London open. Since then the pair has held a range, with US 10y yields near 5.34% keeping it pinned toward 158. Friday's NFP miss drove a false break to the 156.95 nfp low that NY hours fully reversed. Monday's session opened at the 157.82 weekly open and printed a lower high at the 158.30 monday high in the first hour of NY. Price now sits just under flat EMA(20) and EMA(50) near 157.91–157.95, with RSI(14) at 48 as the lower highs and higher lows converge.
Support: 157.82, 157.44, 156.95
Resistance: 158.30, 158.45, 158.70
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.30 monday high breaks the lower highs line and reopens the 158.45 thu high
Failure to hold the 157.82 weekly open exposes the 157.44 monday low, near the 50% of the Wed–Thu rally
BoJ Ueda speech Tue 06:35 UTC: an explicit hike signal could put the 156.95 nfp low back in play, while a cautious tone puts the 158.70 band top in view
Fed's Williams/Bowman Tue and FOMC Minutes Wed: a sharp move in 10y UST yields off 5.34% could resolve the range
Lower highs from 158.45 and higher lows from 156.95: contracting range.
USDJPY has compressed since Wednesday's 158.45 prior high. Friday's NFP plunge to the 156.95 nfp low fully reversed, and Monday printed a higher low at 157.44 (monday low) and a lower high at 158.30 (monday high). Monday's push off the 157.82 weekly open came during the London-NY transition on the UST yield gap, then met rejection and faded through NY hours despite ISM prices paid at 74. That leaves price just under a flattening EMA(20) and sitting on EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 48 and the higher-lows trendline near 157.70.
Support: 157.82, 157.44, 156.95
Resistance: 158.30, 158.45
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.30 monday high reopens the 158.45 prior high and breaks the lower-highs line
H1 close below the higher-lows trendline (~157.70) and the 157.82 weekly open shifts focus to the 157.44 monday low, near the 50% fib at 157.41
Loss of 157.44 brings the 156.95 nfp low back into view
BoJ Ueda speech Tue 06:35 UTC could materially shift this read; Williams/Bowman Tue and FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC follow
USD/JPY has rotated in a 157.20–158.45 band since Thursday's Asia-session push to the week high. Friday's NFP miss drove a false break to the 156.95 nfp low that NY hours fully reversed, and Monday's Asia-session low at 157.44 held near the 50% retracement of the Wed-Thu impulse before the yield-gap bid lifted price to the 158.30 monday high around the London-NY transition. Lower highs against higher lows leave a contracting range, with price fading after ISM to just under EMA(20) near 157.96 and just above the weekly open at 157.82, and RSI(14) neutral near 49.
Support: 157.82, 157.44, 156.95
Resistance: 157.96, 158.30, 158.45
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.45 week high breaks the lower highs line and the range top, with the 158.70 band top next in view
Loss of the 157.44 monday low and the higher lows trendline near 157.26 reopens the 156.95 nfp low
Holding the weekly open at 157.82 while regaining ema20 keeps the range-top test in play
BoJ Governor Ueda speaks Tue 06:35 UTC, which could materially shift this read
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC is the next high-impact USD risk to the range
156.95–158.45 range; higher lows Monday against lower highs from Thursday's 158.45 range top.
Friday's NFP miss knocked USD/JPY to the 156.95 nfp low during NY hours, but the move fully reversed. The wide US-Japan yield gap, with the 10y near 5.34%, has kept the pair pinned near 158. Monday's session opened at the 157.82 weekly open, set a 157.44 monday low in Asia and rallied from late London into the NY open to a 158.30 monday high, a lower high beneath Thursday's 158.45 range top. NY has since drifted back onto EMA(20) at 157.97, which coincides with the 38.2% retracement of Monday's leg, with RSI(14) neutral at 51.
Support: 157.82, 157.44, 156.95
Resistance: 158.30, 158.45
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.30 monday high and the 158.45 range top breaks the lower-high sequence off Thursday
Loss of the rising trendline and the 157.82 weekly open exposes the 157.44 monday low and the 61.8% fib near 157.76
A break below 157.44 reopens the lower half of the range toward the 156.95 nfp low
BoJ Governor Ueda speaks Tue 06:35 UTC; an explicit near-term hike signal could materially shift this read
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC and US 10y yield moves remain the dominant driver for the yield gap
Contracting range: higher lows from Wednesday vs lower highs under 158.45.
USD/JPY has printed higher lows since Wednesday's 156.38 Asia-session low, with the post-NFP dip to 156.95 on Friday and Monday's London swing low at 157.57 each holding above the prior one, while Thursday's 158.45 prior high still caps a sequence of lower highs. Monday's NY push to the 158.30 monday high met rejection after the ISM Services miss, and price is now sitting on EMA(20) near 157.96 just above the 157.82 weekly open. RSI(14) is flat around 53, and the wide US-Japan yield gap keeps pullbacks shallow, holding above the 38.2% retracement of the Wed-Thu impulse near 157.66.
Support: 157.96, 157.815, 157.567
Resistance: 158.295, 158.451
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 157.57 swing low breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the 50% fib of the Wed-Thu impulse near 157.41
A close above the 158.45 prior high clears the lower highs and the range top; the 158.70 band top and intervention rhetoric sit just above
Repeated rejection below the monday high at 158.30 with price losing the weekly open at 157.82 tightens the contracting range toward its lower edge
BoJ Ueda speech Tue 06:35 UTC, then Fed's Williams and Bowman Tue afternoon, could materially shift this read
Higher lows since NFP low against lower highs from Thursday's high.
USDJPY has compressed between Thursday's high at 158.45 and a sequence of higher lows since Friday's NFP low at 156.95. Monday's Asian dip and London swing low at 157.57 held, and the weekly open at 157.82 has also held. The London-NY push to a 158.29 Monday high faded after the mixed ISM services print, leaving price hugging EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 51 as hawkish-BoJ bets offset broad USD demand.
Support: 157.82, 157.57, 156.95
Resistance: 158.29, 158.45
What it said to watch
BoJ Governor Ueda speaks at 06:35 UTC Tuesday and could break the 157–158.45 range in either direction
H1 close above the thursday high at 158.45 exposes the intervention-sensitive 158.70 area
Failure to hold the swing low at 157.57 breaks the higher-lows trendline and puts the nfp low at 156.95 back in focus
A move through the lower-highs trendline above the monday high at 158.29 would end the compression read
Hold of the weekly open at 157.82 keeps price pinned near 158.00
61.8% of the Wed–Thu rally sits near 157.17, just above the nfp low
Fed's Williams and Bowman Tuesday, then FOMC Minutes Wednesday 18:00 UTC, are the USD-side risks to this read
Higher lows vs lower highs; range contracting inside 157.40–158.45.
USD/JPY has compressed since Thursday's 158.45 prior high. Lows are rising from 156.38 through Friday's 156.95 NFP low to Monday's 157.44 weekly low, which sits near the 50% retracement of the Sep30–Oct1 rally, while highs edge lower toward the 158.30 week high. Today's early-NY push to 158.30 met rejection after the ISM Services miss, but price is holding above ema20 and the 157.82 weekly open with RSI(14) near 54.
Support: 157.82, 157.44
Resistance: 158.30, 158.45
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.30 week high exposes the 158.45 prior high, the edge of the intervention-sensitive zone
Break of the rising lows line near 157.65 and the 157.44 weekly low reopens the 156.95 NFP low
Repeated failure under the lower highs line keeps the contracting range read intact
BoJ Governor Ueda at 06:35 UTC Tuesday could materially shift this read
Fed's Williams and Bowman on Tuesday, then the FOMC Minutes on Wed at 18:00 UTC, are the USD-side risks
Higher lows since the 156.38 Wednesday low, lower highs from the 158.45 Thursday high; range 157.44–158.45.
After the Wednesday-Thursday impulse from 156.38 to the 158.45 Thursday high, USDJPY has compressed, with lower highs and higher lows forming a pennant. Friday's NFP miss briefly drove price to 156.95 before the move fully reversed. Monday's Asia dip held 157.44 (monday low), close to the 50% fib of the impulse, and London lifted price above the 157.82 weekly open to a 158.30 monday high. In-line ISM left price sitting on EMA(20) near 157.94 into NY hours, with RSI(14) flat near 51.
Support: 157.94, 157.82, 157.44
Resistance: 158.30, 158.45
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 158.45 thu high breaks the pennant top and puts the 158.70 intervention-sensitive zone in play
Loss of EMA(20) at 157.94 and the 157.82 weekly open turns focus back to the rising-lows trendline near 157.55
A break below the 157.44 monday low ends the higher-low sequence and exposes the 156.95 post-NFP low
BoJ Ueda speaks Oct 6 06:35 UTC; a clear near-term tightening signal could break the 157–158 range
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift the USD side of this read
Intraday higher lows inside the 156.95–158.45 range.
USDJPY has printed higher lows on Monday off the 157.44 Monday low set in the Asia session, but the NY push was rejected at the 158.30 Monday high into the ISM release. The stagflation-tinged print, with prices paid at 74, has kept the pullback to roughly 40% of the Monday rally. Price is back under the 158 pivot and sitting on EMA(20) near 157.94, with RSI(14) at 54 and the weekly open at 157.82 just below. The broader picture is still the 156.95–158.45 range carried from last week, with the prior high at 158.45 capping Thursday's London highs.
Support: 157.82, 157.57, 157.44
Resistance: 158.30, 158.45
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 157.57 swing low breaks the Monday higher-low trendline and exposes the weekly open and Monday low
Close above the 158.30 Monday high opens the prior high at 158.45 as the range top
BoJ Ueda Tue 06:35 UTC and Fed Williams/Bowman Tue could materially shift this read
USD/JPY has held a 156.38–158.45 range since Tuesday, with higher lows at Wednesday's Asia flush to 156.375, Friday's NFP dip to 156.945 and Monday's 157.436 Asia low, as broad USD haven demand offset a firmer yen on the crosses. Monday's London dip to the 157.567 swing low held near the 50% of the NFP-leg fib before the NY session lifted price to a 158.295 day high. Price now sits on the 158.00 pivot above EMA(20) and the 157.815 weekly open, with RSI(14) near 59, while supply has capped 158.29–158.45 three times since Thursday, leaving the prior high and the 158.70 range top overhead.
Support: 158.00, 157.815, 157.567
Resistance: 158.295, 158.451, 158.70
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.451 prior high breaks the range top and exposes 158.70, where intervention rhetoric is flagged
Failure to hold the 158.00 pivot and the 157.815 weekly open returns price to mid-range
A break below the 157.567 swing low and the higher-lows trendline negates the rising-lows structure
ISM Services at 14:00 UTC lands in the current bar and could materially shift this read
BoJ Ueda speech Tue 06:35 UTC is the main JPY risk for the range
Higher lows have formed since Friday's post-NFP flush to 156.95. The Monday low at 157.44 and a London-session dip to 157.57 both held before a late-London push to a 158.29 session high. Price is above EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 62 and back in the upper half of the 156.9–158.45 range, with USD firm despite the payrolls miss. The thu high at 158.45 marks the top of the Wednesday–Thursday impulse and is the cap that has held since, as intervention rhetoric builds near those highs.
Support: 157.82, 157.44
Resistance: 158.29, 158.45
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.45 thu high would break the range top and put the 158.70 area in focus
Slip back below the weekly open at 157.82 and ema20 returns price to mid-range
Break of the 157.44 monday low ends the higher-lows sequence; 50% of the Wed–Thu impulse sits near 157.41
ISM Services at 14:00 UTC today could materially shift this read
BoJ Ueda speech Tue 06:35 GMT is the next high-impact JPY risk
Lower highs from 158.45 vs higher lows from 156.38.
Since Thursday's 158.45 high, USD/JPY has compressed between lower highs at 158.26, 158.22 and Monday's 158.17. Against that sit higher lows from Wednesday's 156.38 through the 156.95 NFP low and the 157.44 Monday low. The NFP-driven dip was fully recovered by Friday's NY close despite the 29K miss, as haven USD demand offset softer Fed pricing. Monday's Asia-session push to the Monday high faded into London open, but price is back above the weekly open and EMA(20) with RSI(14) flat near 53. It sits above the 38.2% retrace of the Wed–Thu rally at 157.66.
Support: 157.82, 157.44, 156.95
Resistance: 158.17, 158.45, 158.70
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.17 Monday high and the lower-highs line ends the compression, with the 158.45 Thursday high next
Above 158.45, the 158.70 range top is where intervention rhetoric has been concentrated
Break of the higher-lows line and the 157.44 Monday low exposes the 156.95 NFP low
Loss of the weekly open at 157.82 puts the 157.66 retrace of the Wed–Thu rally back in play
ISM Services at 14:00 UTC today: a print near 54 aligns with a slip toward 157.10–157.00
BoJ Ueda Tue 06:35 GMT: explicit hike language tests the NFP low, while a gradualist tone shifts focus to 158.45–158.70
05:04 UTC
Range-bound, higher lows building · RSI 55 · price 158.074
156.95–158.45 range, higher lows since NFP dip.
USD/JPY reclaimed 158.00 during Asia session on Monday, rallying from the 157.44 Monday low back above EMA(20) and the 157.82 weekly open as Yemen headlines revived safe-haven USD demand. That dip held near the 50% retracement of the Wed–Thu impulse, extending the higher lows off Friday's NFP-driven drop to the 156.95 NFP low, while the 158.25 prior high and 158.45 week high still cap the range top. RSI(14) at 55 sits mid-cycle. Asia hours have driven the advances, and NY sessions have produced the sharpest drops.
Support: 157.82, 157.44, 156.95
Resistance: 158.25, 158.45
What it said to watch
ISM Services at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read; a firm print brings the 158.25 prior high and 158.45 week high into play
H1 close back below the 157.82 weekly open and EMA(20) returns price to mid-range
A break of the higher-lows line and the 157.44 Monday low reopens the 156.95 NFP low
Sustained trade above 158.00 raises verbal intervention risk near the week high
Lower highs from 158.45 against higher lows from 156.375, a narrowing range.
Since Wednesday's Asia-session drop to 156.375, USD/JPY has rotated inside a narrowing range. Thursday's Asia-led rally printed the week high at 158.45, followed by lower highs at the friday high of 158.22 and the monday high of 157.97. Friday's NFP miss drove a NY-session spike to the nfp low at 156.95, between the 61.8% and 78.6% retracement of the Wed–Thu rally, and the spike was fully rejected despite the soft USD tone. Price now sits flat on EMA(20) and EMA(50) near 157.75 with RSI(14) around 51, above the monday low at 157.60 and the pre-nfp low at 157.47, and between the higher lows and lower highs trendlines.
Support: 157.60, 157.47, 156.95
Resistance: 157.97, 158.22, 158.45
What it said to watch
ISM Services today at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read; a hot print puts the friday high at 158.22 and the 158.00 intervention-sensitive area in play
H1 close above the lower highs line and the monday high at 157.97 breaks the contraction and opens the week high at 158.45
Failure to hold the monday low at 157.60 and the pre-nfp low at 157.47 brings the higher lows line near 157.07 and the nfp low at 156.95 back into focus
Japan Labor Cash Earnings Tue 23:30 UTC (f/c 3.7%) is the week's main JPY input for this range