Lower highs and lower lows since 158.295 day high; thin late-NY/rollover drift.
Yield-driven USD demand lifted the pair to a 158.295 day high in the first hours of NY trade, but the high was rejected and price has since printed a chain of lower highs. Price is now holding just above the 157.824 swing low near the 61.8% retrace of the London-NY leg in thin early-Asia trade, with RSI(14) ~37 and ATR ~5 pips.
Support: 157.824, 157.567
Resistance: 157.934, 158.00, 158.295
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.824 swing low extends the lower-low chain toward the 157.567 london low
Break of the lower-highs trendline with a close above the 157.934 lower high, then the 158.00 round number, neutralises the fade
BoJ Ueda speech Tue 06:35 UTC (~7h) could materially shift this read; MoF intervention rhetoric remains a brake near the 158.295 day high
23:16 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since NY high · RSI 43 · price 157.906
Lower-high sequence from 158.295, basing near the 61.8% fib.
Since the 158.295 day high early in NY, USDJPY has printed a lower high at 158.155 and slipped back into the London-NY fib, with the late NY low at 157.824 tagging just under the 61.8% retracement. Post-rollover trade is thin and pinned near 157.90 below both EMAs. The yield-gap bid that held the pair near 158 through Monday has faded off the highs.
Support: 157.824, 157.567
Resistance: 158.00, 158.155, 158.295
What it said to watch
M15 close above the lower-high line near 157.95 and the 158.00 round number neutralises the pullback read
Break of the 157.824 late ny low exposes the 157.567 london low
Recovery through the 158.155 lower high puts the 158.295 day high back in play
BoJ Governor Ueda speaks Tue 06:35 UTC (~7h); hike signalling could materially shift this read
23:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend from the day high, momentum flat · RSI 41 · price 157.893
Lower highs since 158.295; thin post-NY range above 157.82.
London cleared the Asian range high at 158.171 and printed a 158.295 day high. Supply capped the 158.10–158.30 zone through NY, leaving a 158.155 lower high, and price has since faded below the 158.00 round number to a 157.824 swing low in thin post-NY trade. RSI(14) sits near 41 with no extreme, and the yield-gap bid has not been enough to hold 158.
Support: 157.824, 157.567
Resistance: 158.00, 158.155, 158.295
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 158.00 round number and the descending trendline invalidates the lower-high read; 158.155 lower high and the 158.295 day high sit above
Failure to hold the 157.824 swing low extends the lower-low chain toward the 157.567 london low
BoJ Ueda speech at 06:35 UTC (about 7.5h out) could materially shift this read during the Asia-London transition
22:46 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since NY peak · RSI 39 · price 157.892
Lower-high/lower-low drift after London close; price at 61.8% fib of the London-NY leg.
The NY-session day high at 158.295, set on the yield-gap bid, has given way to a lower-high, lower-low drift under a falling trendline. Price is pinned near the 61.8% fib at 157.85 in thin early-Asia trade, with the late low at 157.824 underneath and the 158.00 round number above. RSI(14) is near 39 and ATR is about 5 pips.
Support: 157.824, 157.567, 157.436
Resistance: 158.00, 158.155, 158.295
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 157.824 late low and the 61.8% fib opens the London low at 157.567, then the Asian low at 157.436
An M15 close above the falling trendline and the 158.00 round number neutralises the pullback; the lower high at 158.155 is next
Reclaiming the 158.295 day high would resume the session uptrend
BoJ Ueda speech Tue 06:35 UTC (about 8h away) could materially shift this read
Lower highs below the 158.295 day high, holding the 61.8% retrace.
The London-NY push above the Asian range high (158.17) to a 158.295 day high, on the yield-gap bid, failed ahead of ISM. Since then a falling trendline of lower highs has brought price back below the 158 handle, to a 157.824 rollover low near the 61.8% retrace of the 157.567–158.295 leg. Early-Asia trade is thin, RSI(14) is near 36 and ATR is about 5 pips.
Support: 157.824, 157.567
Resistance: 158.155, 158.295
What it said to watch
A close below the 157.824 rollover low extends the lower-low chain toward the 157.567 london low
Reclaiming the 158 handle and the trendline breaks the lower-high sequence, with the 158.155 lower high and 158.295 day high above
Japan Labor Cash Earnings (23:30 UTC, f/c 3.7%) and Ueda's speech (06:35 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the 158.295 day high.
USD/JPY has bled lower from the 158.295 day high set in the first hours of NY. The pair printed lower highs at 158.155 and the 158.00 psych level, then a fresh swing low at 157.824 into the early Asia session as the yield-gap bid faded. Price sits between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of the London rally from the 157.567 London low, with RSI(14) near 34 and ATR around 5 pips.
Support: 157.824, 157.567
Resistance: 158.00, 158.155, 158.295
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 158.00 psych and the lower-highs trendline breaks the descending sequence
Failure to hold the 157.824 swing low and the 61.8% retracement exposes the 157.567 London low
Reclaim of the 158.155 lower high reopens a retest of the 158.295 day high, where intervention rhetoric near 158 is in focus
BoJ Governor Ueda speaks Tue 06:35 UTC, about 8h out; that could materially shift this read
22:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend off day high, thin rollover trade · RSI 38 · price 157.884
Lower highs and lower lows since the 158.295 day high; 157.916 NY low broken.
The yield-gap bid lifted the pair to a 158.295 day high, but four tests there between 11:00 and 13:00 UTC drew rejection. NY then printed a lower high at 158.155 and a late low at 157.832 into the rollover. Price now sits between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the London leg, under the descending trendline and the 158.00 round number, with RSI(14) near 38 and ATR(14) around 5 pips in thin post-NY trade.
Support: 157.832, 157.567
Resistance: 158.00, 158.155, 158.295
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 157.832 late low exposes the 157.567 london low
M15 close back above the 158.00 round number and descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence
Only a reclaim of the 158.155 lower high reopens the 158.295 day high
BoJ Ueda speech Tue 06:35 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs off the 158.295 day high; fresh lower low at 157.832.
The early NY push to the 158.295 day high on the yield-gap bid was rejected and has faded into a lower-high sequence, with the 158.155 lower high capping the 17:00 UTC bounce. The thin post-NY drift has now broken the 157.916 afternoon low to print a 157.832 swing low, near the 61.8% level of the London-NY leg fib, with RSI(14) at about 34 and ATR near 5.6 pips.
Support: 157.832, 157.567, 157.436
Resistance: 158.00, 158.155, 158.295
What it said to watch
Holding the 157.832 swing low and the 61.8% London-NY leg fib keeps this a retracement. A break exposes the 157.567 London low.
An M15 close back above the 158.00 round number and the lower-high line would negate the fade read.
The 157.436 Asia low is the floor of Monday's range. A loss of that level shifts the structure to a full range break.
BoJ Ueda speaks Tue 06:35 UTC and could materially shift this read. Intervention rhetoric stays a brake near the 158.295 day high.
21:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend from the session high, momentum soft · RSI 31 · price 157.915
Lower highs since the 158.295 NY-open peak; price sitting on the NY low after the post-close slowdown.
London broke above the Asian range on the yield-gap bid, but NY rejected the 158.295 session high and printed lower highs at 158.155 and the 158.00 round number. Price is now pressing the 157.90 NY low, near the 50% retrace of the London rally, with RSI(14) near 31 and post-close ranges thin.
Support: 157.90, 157.567, 157.436
Resistance: 158.00, 158.155, 158.295
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.90 ny low extends the lower-high sequence toward the 157.567 london low
Reclaim of the 158.00 round number and a break of the lower-highs line above the 158.155 swing high negates the fade
BoJ Ueda speech Tue 06:35 UTC (~9h) could materially shift this read; the 157.436 asian low is the reference on a hawkish surprise
21:16 UTC
Intraday fade, lower highs off NY high · RSI 40 · price 157.928
Lower highs from 158.295, price pressing the 157.90 NY low.
London cleared the 158.171 Asian high and NY printed the 158.295 session high before rejection. Despite yield-gap support for USD, price has faded through lower highs at 158.155 and 158.096 and now sits on the 50% retrace of the London-NY leg near 157.93, just above the 157.90 NY low in thin late-NY trade.
Support: 157.90, 157.567, 157.436
Resistance: 158.096, 158.155, 158.295
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.90 NY low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 157.567 london low
Recovery above the 158.155 lower high breaks the descending trendline from the session high
Asian low at 157.436 is the full-day floor if the 61.8% retrace near 157.85 fails
Japan Labor Cash Earnings (f/c 3.7%) in ~2h and Ueda speech in ~9h could materially shift this read
21:02 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since day high · RSI 34 · price 157.918
Lower highs from 158.295, testing 157.90 swing low.
The yield-gap bid lifted USD/JPY from the 157.567 London low to a 158.295 day high early in the NY session. Since then the pair has printed a lower high at 158.155, slipped below the 158.00 round number, and is now testing the 157.90 swing low near the 50% retrace in thin post-NY trade, with RSI(14) at about 34. The day's range sits well above the 157.436 Asian low.
Support: 157.90, 157.567, 157.436
Resistance: 158.00, 158.155, 158.295
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.90 swing low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 157.567 London low, then the 157.436 Asian low
Reclaim of the 158.155 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and reopens the 158.295 day high
Holding back under the 158.00 round number keeps the pullback read intact
Labor Cash Earnings at 23:30 UTC and Ueda speech at 06:35 UTC could materially shift this read
20:47 UTC
Pullback from 158.30 day high, momentum fading · RSI 37 · price 157.955
Lower highs pressing a flat 157.92 floor after a London leg up.
London took USD/JPY through the asian high at 158.17 to a 158.295 day high on the yield-gap bid. A double top there gave way through NY, and lower highs along a descending trendline have pulled price back to 157.95, near the 50% retrace of the London leg and just above the 157.92 ny low. Late-session ranges are compressing with ATR near 5.5 pips, and price sits below both EMAs.
Support: 157.916, 157.845, 157.567
Resistance: 158.00, 158.171, 158.295
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.92 ny low extends the lower-high sequence toward the 61.8% fib at 157.85 and the 157.57 london low
Close back above the 158.00 trendline, then the 158.17 asian high, negates the lower-high structure and reopens the 158.30 day high
BoJ Ueda speech Tue 06:35 UTC (~10h) is high impact and could materially shift this read
Intervention rhetoric remains a brake with price pinned near 158
Lower highs since 158.29 peak, holding 157.92 swing low.
The London-NY leg from the 157.57 London low peaked at the 158.29 session high around the NY open. It faded after the soft ISM services print, with a lower high at 158.155 and price now back inside the Asian range. Late NY drift is holding the 157.92 swing low, which lines up with the 50% retrace of that leg, and RSI(14) near 40 shows little momentum either way.
Support: 157.92, 157.57
Resistance: 158.155, 158.295
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 157.92 swing low confirms a lower low and opens the 61.8% retrace near 157.85, then the 157.57 London low
M15 close above the 158.155 lower high breaks the descending sequence from the session high
BoJ Ueda speech Tue 06:35 UTC could materially shift this read
A retreat in US 10y yields from 5.34% would weigh on the 158 handle
London lifted USD/JPY from its 157.57 London low to a 158.29 day high early in NY, before the ISM Services miss pulled it back to the 157.92 NY low. Late NY is now drifting in a tight 157.92–158.15 band under a lower high, sitting near the 38.2% retrace of the London rally with RSI(14) ~42 and price below EMA20/50.
Support: 157.92, 157.57
Resistance: 158.15, 158.29
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.92 NY low extends the retrace toward the 157.57 London low
Close above the 158.15 lower high breaks the descending line and reopens the 158.29 day high
Asia open in ~4h; BoJ Ueda speech Tue 06:35 UTC could materially shift this read
20:01 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since NY open · RSI 41 · price 157.966
Lower highs off 158.29 session high, compressing above NY low.
USDJPY ran from the 157.57 London low to a 158.29 session high into the NY open, then faded through the marginal ISM Services miss. It has since printed lower highs at 158.16 and 158.10 under a descending trendline. Late NY is compressing just above the 157.92 NY low near the 50% level of the London rally fib, with RSI(14) near 41 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 157.92, 157.87, 157.57
Resistance: 158.10, 158.17, 158.29
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.10 lower high and 158.17 Asian high breaks the descending trendline and the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 157.92 NY low exposes the 157.87 swing low and the 61.8% of the London rally fib near 157.85, then the 157.57 London low
BoJ Governor Ueda speaks Tue 06:35 UTC (~10h, into London open) and could materially shift this read
A retreat in US 10y yields from 5.34% would weigh on the 158 handle
19:46 UTC
Pullback from day high, momentum soft · RSI 40 · price 157.965
Lower highs since NY open, base holding at 157.92.
USDJPY was rejected at the 158.295 day high early in NY hours and has since printed a lower high at 158.155 under a falling trendline. Price is pressing the 157.92 NY low, near the 50% fib of the London low-to-day high leg, as the yield gap keeps the pair pinned near 158 into the late NY session.
Support: 157.92, 157.85, 157.57
Resistance: 158.155, 158.295
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.92 NY low exposes the 61.8% fib at 157.85 and the 157.57 london low
Close back above the falling trendline and the 158.155 lower high would negate the lower-high sequence and put the 158.295 day high back in play
BoJ Ueda speech Tue 06:35 UTC could materially shift this read
19:31 UTC
Intraday up leg stalled, drifting lower · RSI 43 · price 157.986
Lower highs off 158.30, NY low 157.92 holding.
USDJPY climbed from the 157.44 Asian low to a 158.30 day high in London as the wide US-Japan yield gap kept the dollar supported. Price was rejected there and faded after the 14:00 UTC ISM Services miss. Late NY trade is compressing between the 157.92 NY low and the 158.15 lower high, sitting on the 50% retrace of the London leg from the 157.57 London low.
Support: 157.92, 157.57
Resistance: 158.15, 158.30
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.92 NY low breaks the 50% retrace and exposes the 157.57 London low
Close above the 158.15 lower high breaks the descending trendline and reopens the 158.30 day high
BoJ Ueda speech Tue 06:35 UTC could materially shift this read
A retreat in US 10y yields from 5.34% would undercut the bid near 158
19:16 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs off the day high · RSI 45 · price 157.978
Lower highs pressing into flat NY-low support at 157.92–157.97.
London cleared the Asian range high at 158.171 and printed a day high at 158.295. NY rejected that level, and price faded through the ISM Services miss into a series of lower highs at 158.155 and 158.096. Late in the NY session, price is coiling just above the NY low at 157.916, near the 50% retrace of the London rally from 157.567.
Support: 157.916, 157.567
Resistance: 158.155, 158.295
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.916 NY low confirms a lower low and exposes the 61.8% retrace near 157.85, then the 157.567 london low
M15 close above the 158.155 lower high breaks the descending trendline and reopens the 158.295 day high
BoJ Ueda speech Tue 06:35 UTC lands in the Asia session and could materially shift this read
Lower highs under 158.30 day high, compressing above 157.92.
London held the 157.57 london low above the Asian low, then broke the Asia high and printed a 158.30 day high. The ISM Services miss at 14:00 UTC triggered a rejection to the 157.92 post-ism low, near the 50% retrace of the London-to-high leg. Late NY session is now compressing under a 158.16 lower high and testing the 157.98 ny base, RSI(14) near 45.
Support: 157.98, 157.92, 157.57
Resistance: 158.16, 158.30
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.92 post-ism low breaks the 50% retrace and exposes the 157.57 london low
Close above the 158.16 lower high invalidates the lower-highs sequence and reopens the 158.30 day high
BoJ Ueda speech Tue 06:35 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 158.295 against higher lows from 157.916; contracting range late NY.
Late London cleared the 158.17 asian high on the wide US-Japan yield gap and printed a 158.295 day high into the NY open. Price then faded to a 157.916 ny low after the ISM Services miss. Price is now coiling near 158.05 between lower highs and higher lows, with RSI(14) at 54, neutral, and ATR around 6.6 pips.
Support: 157.986, 157.916, 157.567
Resistance: 158.17, 158.295
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.17 asian high breaks the lower highs line and reopens the 158.295 day high
Loss of the 157.986 higher low, then the 157.916 ny low, ends the coil and exposes the 157.567 london low
BoJ Ueda speech Tue 06:35 UTC (~12h) and MoF intervention rhetoric near 158 could materially shift this read
18:32 UTC
Sideways after London spike faded · RSI 51 · price 158.068
NY range 157.92–158.16 inside the Asian range, rising lows.
London cleared the 158.16 Asian high to a 158.30 day high, but NY pulled price back inside the Asian range. Demand showed at the 157.92 NY low, near the 50% fib of the London rally, and the 157.99 higher low held after ISM prices paid at 74. Price is now flat at EMA20 with RSI near 51 and no momentum either way.
Support: 157.99, 157.92, 157.57
Resistance: 158.16, 158.30, 158.45
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 158.16 asian high reopens the 158.30 day high
Loss of the 157.99 higher low and the 157.92 ny low breaks the NY range floor and exposes the 157.57 london low
158.45 mof zone is the intervention-sensitive area flagged for MoF warnings
BoJ Ueda speaks Oct 6 06:35 UTC and could break the 157.92–158.16 range
18:17 UTC
Sideways after NY fade, coiling near 158.00 · RSI 53 · price 158.065
Lower highs from 158.295 against higher lows from 157.916, contracting range.
London held above the Asian low and broke the Asian range high into a rejection at the 158.295 day high in early NY. The fade stalled at the 157.916 NY low near the 50% retrace of the London rally, and price is now coiling late in the NY session between a 158.155 lower high and a 157.986 higher low, sitting on a flat EMA20. ISM Services' 74 prices-paid print kept the dollar supported but did not extend the move.
Support: 157.986, 157.916, 157.567
Resistance: 158.155, 158.295, 158.45
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.155 lower high reopens the 158.295 day high
Break of the 157.986 higher low exposes the 157.916 NY low and 50% retrace; failure there points back to the 157.567 london low
158.45–158.70 intervention zone caps upside on MoF rhetoric risk
BoJ Ueda Oct 6 06:35 UTC could materially shift this read
18:01 UTC
Intraday range after rejection from session high · RSI 46 · price 158.031
Lower high at 158.155 vs 158.295; NY low 157.916 holding; coiling near 158.00.
London rallied from the 157.567 london low through the Asian high to a 158.295 session high, then early NY rejected it and pulled price back to the 157.916 ny low, near the 50% fib. Price is now compressed between 157.92 and 158.16 around 158.00, with a lower high at 158.155. The mixed ISM services print (prices paid 74) did not break the range.
Support: 157.916, 157.567
Resistance: 158.155, 158.295, 158.45
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.155 lower high reopens the 158.295 session high
Failure to hold the 157.916 ny low (50% fib) exposes the 157.567 london low
158.45 intervention zone above the session high, where MoF rhetoric typically caps moves
BoJ Ueda speaks Oct 6 06:35 UTC; a hawkish timing signal could break the 158.00 coil
London broke above the Asian range, NY retraced to the 50% fib; price coiling below the Asian high.
London lifted USDJPY from the 157.567 london low through the 158.171 asian high to a 158.295 session high. NY then faded to the 157.916 ny low around the soft ISM Services print, holding near the 50% fib of the London rally on the higher lows line. Price is now flat around 158.10 in late NY, with the round number at 158.00 underneath and RSI(14) neutral near 48.
Support: 158.00, 157.916, 157.567
Resistance: 158.171, 158.295, 158.45
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 158.171 asian high reopens the 158.295 session high
Break below the 157.916 ny low breaks the higher lows line and exposes the 157.567 london low
Failure to hold the 158.00 round number puts the 50% fib retest back in play
158.45 intervention zone above the session high is where MoF warnings have tended to surface
BoJ Governor Ueda speaks 06:35 UTC Tuesday and could materially shift this read in the next Asia session
17:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend from London low, stalling below highs · RSI 52 · price 158.108
Higher low at 157.968 after pullback from 158.295; coiling under Asian high in late NY.
London lifted USDJPY off the 157.567 London low, through the 158.171 Asian high, to a 158.295 session high. The pullback after the mixed ISM Services print held the 157.916 NY low near the 50% fib, then printed a higher low at 157.968. Late NY price is coiling around 158.10, just under the Asian high, with RSI(14) neutral near 52.
Support: 157.968, 157.916, 157.567
Resistance: 158.171, 158.295, 158.45
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 158.171 Asian high puts the 158.295 session high back in play
Acceptance above the session high brings the 158.45 mof zone into view, where intervention rhetoric is a cap risk
Loss of the 157.968 higher low and the 157.916 NY low breaks the intraday higher-low sequence and opens the 157.567 London low
BoJ Ueda at 06:35 UTC Oct 6 could materially shift this read
HL chain 157.57 → 157.92; NY pullback held near 50% of London leg.
London cleared the asia high at 158.17 and set the session high at 158.30. NY faded to 157.92, the ny low, near the 50% retrace of the London leg as the mixed ISM print landed, and price is now back above the 158.00 round number, pressing the asia high late in NY with RSI(14) neutral near 50.
Support: 158.00, 157.92, 157.57
Resistance: 158.17, 158.30, 158.45
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.30 session high extends the higher-high chain toward the 158.45 thu high, where intervention warnings have been flagged
Failure below the 157.92 ny low breaks the higher-low trendline and puts the 157.57 london low back in play
Repeated rejection at the 158.17 asia high keeps price capped in a 157.92–158.17 band after London close
BoJ Ueda at 06:35 UTC Tue could materially shift this read
Higher low at 157.92 after 158.29 session high; recovering mid-range.
The London-NY leg from the 157.57 London low topped at a 158.29 session high. NY then pulled back to 157.92, near the 50% retracement, where demand stepped in despite the ISM services miss. Price is back above the 158.00 round number with RSI(14) near 51, and the Asian high at 158.17 is the next cap.
Support: 158.00, 157.92, 157.57
Resistance: 158.17, 158.29, 158.45
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.92 NY low breaks the higher-lows chain and exposes the 157.57 London low
Acceptance above the 158.29 session high brings the 158.45–158.70 intervention zone into play, where MoF rhetoric risk rises
Repeated rejection at the 158.17 Asian high keeps price in a 157.92–158.29 consolidation
BoJ Ueda (Oct 6, 06:35 UTC) during the next Asia session could materially shift this read
16:46 UTC
Sideways after fading from the session high · RSI 46 · price 158.059
London broke and briefly held above the Asian high, then NY slipped back inside. Lower highs since 13:00 UTC, while 157.916 holds as a higher low above the London low..
London lifted USD/JPY through the asian high at 158.171 to a session high of 158.295, but the move faded into the NY open. The pullback reached the ny low at 157.916, roughly a 50% retrace of the London rally. Late in NY, price is coiling around the 158.00 psych handle under descending resistance, RSI(14) is neutral near 46, and the yen tone stays two-way, with USD strength offset by intervention risk.
Support: 158.00, 157.916, 157.567
Resistance: 158.171, 158.295, 158.45
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the asian high at 158.171 would revive the breakout read, with the 158.295 session high next
A break of the ny low at 157.916 would fail the 50% fib hold and expose the london low at 157.567
A close above the descending resistance from the 158.295 high would end the lower-high sequence
The 158.45 intervention zone is flagged in the digest, so MoF rhetoric is a risk on any push higher
BoJ Governor Ueda speaks Tue 06:35 UTC, a high-impact JPY event in the next Asia session that could reset this range
16:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend stalled, fading from day high · RSI 43 · price 158.065
London broke above the Asian high, then NY slipped back below it. Price is now in a tight 157.92–158.08 consolidation..
London rallied off the 157.567 low and cleared the 158.171 Asian high to a 158.295 day high. NY faded back below it after ISM Services (54.9, prices paid 74), and the pullback held the 157.916 NY low near the 50% fib of the London leg. Late NY, price is compressing at 157.92–158.08 under EMA20 with RSI(14) at about 43 and lower highs capping since 13:00 UTC.
Support: 157.916, 157.567
Resistance: 158.171, 158.295, 158.45
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 158.171 Asian high reopens the 158.295 day high
Failure to hold the 157.916 NY low (50% fib) exposes the 61.8% at 157.845 and the 157.567 London low
158.45 mof zone: intervention-sensitive area flagged in the digest, rejection risk on any approach
BoJ Ueda speaks Oct 6 06:35 UTC and could materially shift this read in Tokyo hours
Failed hold above Asian high, NY lower highs into 158.00.
London broke the 158.17 Asian high to a 158.30 session high. NY faded the move through the slightly soft ISM Services print, and the retrace stalled at the 157.92 NY low, near the 50% level of the 157.57–158.30 rally. Price is back inside the Asian range, hovering at 158.00 with NY highs stepping lower, RSI(14) at 42 and ATR(14) around 10 pips.
Support: 157.916, 157.567
Resistance: 158.171, 158.295
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 158.17 Asian high would negate the false break read and reopen the 158.30 session high
Failure to hold the 157.92 NY low exposes the 61.8% retrace near 157.85, then the 157.57 London low
Intervention-sensitive 158.45–158.70 zone sits just above the session high
BoJ Governor Ueda speaks Oct 6 06:35 UTC and could break the range either way
16:02 UTC
Intraday up leg fading, lower highs since NY high · RSI 38 · price 157.99
Failed break of Asian high, back inside the Asian range.
London lifted price from the 157.57 london low through the 158.17 asian high to a 158.30 session high, but supply capped the move. The pair faded back inside the range after the in-line ISM Services print and has printed lower highs since. It now sits at the 38.2% fib of the London leg with a 157.92 swing low just below, below EMA20 and on the EMA50, RSI(14) near 38.
Support: 157.92, 157.57, 157.44
Resistance: 158.17, 158.30, 158.45
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 158.17 asian high revives the breakout and puts the 158.30 session high back in play
Loss of the 157.92 swing low (50% fib) opens the 61.8% at 157.85 and the 157.57 london low
Break of the 157.44 asian low would mark a full reversal of the session
158.45 mof zone above the session high: intervention-sensitive, and MoF warnings would cap any extension
BoJ Ueda at 06:35 UTC Tue could break the range in either direction
15:47 UTC
Intraday up-leg fading, NY pullback in progress · RSI 42 · price 158.039
Lower highs from 158.30 session high; NY low 157.92 holding near 50% fib.
London broke the asian high at 158.17 to a 158.30 session high, but NY has faded through the in-line ISM print on a sequence of lower highs. Price is back below the asian high, with the ny low at 157.92 (just above the 50% fib) holding and price sitting under EMA20 but just over EMA50.
Support: 157.92, 157.57
Resistance: 158.17, 158.30, 158.45
What it said to watch
M15 close below the ny low at 157.92 breaks the 50% fib and exposes the london low at 157.57
Reclaim of the asian high at 158.17 breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the session high at 158.30
Above 158.30, the 158.45 mof zone is where intervention warnings have capped prior moves
BoJ Ueda at 06:35 UTC Tue in the next Asia session could materially shift this read
15:31 UTC
Intraday pullback from session high, lower highs since 13:00 UTC · RSI 39 · price 158.038
London break of Asian high faded; price back inside the Asian range.
London broke the 158.17 asian high to a 158.295 session high, but NY has printed lower highs since 13:00 UTC and pulled price back inside the Asian range despite in-line ISM Services. The 157.92 ny low sits on the 50% retrace of the London leg from the 157.57 london low, with RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 157.92, 157.57
Resistance: 158.17, 158.295
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 158.17 asian high reopens the 158.295 session high
Break of the 157.92 ny low through the 50% London leg fib exposes the 157.57 london low
BoJ Ueda at 06:35 UTC Tue could break the 157–158 range; 158.45–158.70 is intervention-sensitive
15:17 UTC
Pullback from session high, lower highs since 13:00 UTC · RSI 40 · price 158.038
Failed hold above Asian high; lower-high/lower-low chain into mid NY session.
Three tests of the 158.29 session high were rejected before the NY open. The in-line ISM print (prices paid 74) did not stop the slide back below the 158.17 Asian high, leaving a false break and a 157.92 NY low at the 50% retrace of the 157.57–158.29 London leg. Price is now hovering just above the 158.00 round number, below EMA20 and sitting on EMA50, with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 158.00, 157.92, 157.57
Resistance: 158.17, 158.29, 158.45
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.92 NY low and 50% retrace opens the 157.57 London low
Reclaim of the 158.17 Asian high and the lower-high trendline negates the false-break read
Session high at 158.29 is the cap; above it sits the 158.45 intervention zone flagged for MoF warnings
BoJ Ueda Oct 6 06:35 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian high break reversed; higher lows intact above 157.57.
The Asian range of 157.44–158.17 broke higher late in the London session, with a session high at 158.30 rejected through NY hours. The fade deepened after the in-line ISM Services print, taking price back below the Asian high and the 158.00 psych, to near the 50% fib of the 157.57–158.30 London rally with RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 157.87, 157.57
Resistance: 158.00, 158.17, 158.30
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.87 swing low breaks the higher lows chain and exposes the 157.57 london low
Recovery above the 158.17 asian high would revive the breakout, with 158.30 session high the next cap
Failure to reclaim the 158.00 psych keeps the false break read in play
BoJ Ueda Tue 06:35 UTC (~15h) and Fed Williams Tue 13:05 UTC could materially shift this read
14:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pausing after session high · RSI 53 · price 158.089
London HH at 158.30, NY pullback holding 158.07 inside Asian range.
London broke the asian high at 158.17 and printed a session high at 158.30. The NY open has slipped back below that breakout level. Two dips to the ny low at 158.07 held through the ISM services release (prices paid 74), with price pinned at EMA20 between the 23.6% and 38.2% fib of the 157.57–158.30 leg.
Support: 158.07, 158.00, 157.87
Resistance: 158.17, 158.30
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 158.17 asian high reopens the 158.30 session high
Sustained trade below the 158.07 ny low turns the London breakout into a false break and exposes 158.00 psych, then the 157.87 swing low near the 50% fib
BoJ Ueda speech Tue 06:35 UTC (~16h) is the main JPY risk; Fed Williams Tue 13:05 UTC for USD
London breakout above Asian range, now consolidating 158.07–158.29 in early NY.
London rallied from the 157.57 session low through Friday's 157.91 high and the 158.17 Asian high. The session high at 158.29 has capped twice, and the ISM Services bar dipped to a 158.07 NY low. Price is back testing the Asian high, above EMA20 and EMA50, with RSI(14) near 61.
Support: 158.07, 158.00, 157.87
Resistance: 158.17, 158.29, 158.45
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.07 NY low exposes 158.00 psych and the 38.2% of the London leg fib near 158.02
Sustained trade back inside the Asian range below 158.17 turns the breakout into a false break, with the 157.87 swing low next
M15 close above the 158.29 session high clears the double-tested cap and puts the 158.45 upside mark in view
ISM Services actual is not yet in the data, so the 14:00 UTC reaction may still be developing
BoJ Ueda speech Tue 06:35 UTC is the next high-impact JPY risk, and intervention rhetoric remains a factor near YTD highs
Higher low at 157.57, flat top at 158.29-158.30, slipping back below Asian high.
London held 157.57 and USDJPY broke the Asian high at 158.17 late in the session as firm USD yields outweighed yen gains on Takaichi's debt pledge. The pair then capped five times at the 158.30 session high into early NY. Price has slipped back under the Asian high ahead of ISM and is testing EMA20 near 158.09 with RSI(14) ~55, while the 38.2% fib at 158.00 lines up with the pivot.
Support: 158.07, 158.00, 157.87
Resistance: 158.17, 158.30, 158.45
What it said to watch
ISM Services (f/c 55, Prices Paid prev 72.6) was due 14:00 UTC and is not yet in the data; a print well off forecast could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 158.07 NY low and the 38.2% fib at 158.00 turns the Asian high breakout into a false break and exposes the 157.87 swing low
Reclaim of the 158.17 Asian high and a close above the 158.30 session high opens the 158.45 next marker
BoJ Ueda speech Tue 06:35 UTC is the next JPY-side risk to the range
14:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back · RSI 52 · price 158.085
Asian high broken, price slipping back below it into ISM.
London held above the Asian low and rallied off the 157.567 london low. Late-London buying then broke the 158.171 asian high and printed a 158.295 session high, but price has slipped back below the Asian high into the ISM Services release. It is now sitting on the 158.00 psych level with RSI(14) near 52, as firm USD haven demand offsets JPY strength on the crosses.
Support: 158.00, 157.94, 157.567
Resistance: 158.171, 158.295
What it said to watch
ISM Services (14:00 UTC, f/c 55) lands on the current bar and could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the 158.171 asian high restores the breakout, with the 158.295 session high next
Failure to hold the 157.94 break base (50% fib) exposes the 157.567 london low
BoJ Ueda speech Tue 06:35 UTC is the next JPY event risk
Asian high broken in London, tight range 158.15–158.29 into NY.
The London rally from the 157.57 london low cleared the 158.17 Asian high and set a 158.29 session high. Price is coiling 158.15–158.29 into the NY open with RSI(14) near 61. Haven USD demand is holding the pair above 158.00 even as JPY firms on the crosses.
Support: 158.15, 157.94, 157.57
Resistance: 158.29, 158.45
What it said to watch
S&P Global PMI now and ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55) land into the 158.15–158.29 range; a soft print could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 158.15 range low exposes the 157.94 breakout base, near the 50% fib of the London leg
Close above the 158.29 session high opens the next marker at 158.45, with intervention rhetoric flagged near 158.70
Failure to hold the breakout base returns price to the 157.57 london low area
HH/HL from London low; Asian range high broken, tight hold above it.
Higher lows from the 157.57 London low carried price through the Friday high and the 158.17 Asian high late in London. It has since compressed between 158.15 and the 158.30 session high into NY, with firm USD haven demand offsetting yen gains on the crosses and RSI(14) cooling from the high 70s.
Support: 158.17, 157.91, 157.57
Resistance: 158.30, 158.45
What it said to watch
S&P PMI at 13:45 UTC and ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55) land within the next two bars. Either could resolve the 158.15–158.30 hold.
An M15 close above the 158.30 session high opens the path to the 158.45 mark.
Failure to hold the 158.17 Asian high puts price back inside the prior range. The friday high near 157.91 and the 50% fib of the London leg sit below.
A break of rising support from the London low marks the end of the HH/HL chain. BoJ Ueda speaks Tue 06:35 UTC.
Higher lows from London's 157.57 low; Asian high broken and retested.
Asia set a 157.44–158.17 range. London held above 157.57, then broke the Asian high late in the session as haven USD demand outweighed yen strength on the crosses, printing a 158.30 session high. Price is now compressing in a tight 158.15–158.30 band above the Asian high retest into the NY open, with RSI(14) near 68.
Support: 158.17, 158.00, 157.87
Resistance: 158.30, 158.45, 158.70
What it said to watch
S&P Global PMI (13:45 UTC) and ISM Services (14:00 UTC, f/c 55) land within the hour and could materially shift this read
M15 close back below the asian high at 158.17 would turn the breakout into a false break and expose the 158.00 round number
A break of the 157.87 swing low would breach the London higher-low trendline and the 61.8% retracement of the London leg
Acceptance above the 158.30 session high brings the 158.45 topside mark and 158.70 range top into play, where intervention rhetoric becomes a factor
BoJ Ueda speech Tue 06:35 UTC is the next yen-specific risk
13:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pausing under session high · RSI 69 · price 158.261
Higher low at 157.57 in London, Asian high broken, tight consolidation above it.
London held a 157.57 higher low above the 157.44 Asian low, then broke the 158.17 Asian high late in the session. Price has since stalled in a 158.15–158.29 band, with two tags of the session high, ahead of the NY open. Haven USD demand is offsetting yen strength on the crosses, and RSI(14) near 69 is warm but not stretched.
Support: 158.17, 158.00, 157.87
Resistance: 158.29, 158.50
What it said to watch
S&P Global PMI at 13:45 UTC and ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55) could materially shift this read within the first hour of NY
An M15 close back below the 158.17 asian high turns the breakout into a false break
Acceptance above the 158.29 session high opens the 158.50 psych level; the digest flags intervention rhetoric near 158.70
A break of the rising trendline from the London low exposes the round number at 158.00, near the 38.2% fib, then the 157.87 swing low
London higher low at 157.57, Asian range high broken, holding above it.
London held a higher low at 157.57, then broke above the 157.44–158.17 Asian range to a session high at 158.285 late morning. The broken asia high has held through four bars of retest, with RSI(14) cooling from the low 70s. The haven-driven USD bid outweighed Takaichi-related yen firming on the crosses.
Support: 158.17, 157.98, 157.87
Resistance: 158.285, 158.45, 158.70
What it said to watch
S&P Global PMI at 13:45 UTC and ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55) can materially shift this read
An M15 close back below the 158.17 asia high puts price back inside the Asian range and exposes the 157.98 london range top
An M15 close above the 158.285 session high opens the 158.45 topside mark; 158.70 is the intervention cap flagged in commentary
A break of the London trendline and the 157.87 swing low (61.8% fib zone) would undo the higher-low sequence
BoJ Ueda speaks Tue 06:35 UTC as the next yen catalyst
Asian range high broken, price holding above it on a shallow retest.
London held 157.57, well above the 157.44 Asian low. Haven USD demand then drove a late-London break of the 158.17 Asian high to a 158.285 session high. Price is now holding the old Asian high and the london range top is the next floor below. RSI(14) is near 70 and cooling, and the higher-low chain off 157.57 keeps rising support intact.
Support: 158.17, 157.98, 157.87
Resistance: 158.285, 158.45, 158.70
What it said to watch
S&P Global PMI 13:45 UTC and ISM Services 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close back below the 158.17 Asian high turns the break into a false break and exposes the 157.98 london range top
Clearance of the 158.285 session high puts the 158.45 Thu high and the 158.70 band top in play, where intervention rhetoric is a risk
Loss of rising support and the 157.87 swing low breaks the higher-low chain from the London low
London higher lows; Asian high cleared, holding just above it.
The London leg ran from a 157.567 London low to a 158.285 session high, clearing the 158.17 Asian high as broad USD haven demand held firm. Price is consolidating just above the Asian high with RSI(14) near 68, cooling off its peak.
Support: 158.17, 157.87, 157.567
Resistance: 158.285, 158.45
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.17 Asian high would mark the breakout as a false break
Loss of the 157.87 swing low breaks the London higher-low chain
Close above the 158.285 session high opens the path to the 158.45 Thu high, where intervention risk is flagged
S&P PMI 13:45 UTC and ISM Services 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
12:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the London low · RSI 63 · price 158.21
Asian range broken higher, now retesting the old top.
Late London broke the Asian high at 158.17 and printed a session high at 158.285 on a firm USD tone. Price is now retesting the old range top with RSI(14) near 63. The HH/HL chain from the 157.57 London low and the 157.87 higher low remains intact.
Support: 158.17, 157.87, 157.57
Resistance: 158.285, 158.45
What it said to watch
A move back below the 158.17 asian high turns the breakout into a false break.
Losing the 157.87 higher low breaks the HH/HL chain and exposes the 157.57 london low.
An M15 close above the 158.285 session high opens the 158.45 prior high, where Japanese intervention rhetoric risk rises.
S&P Global PMI at 13:45 UTC and ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55, TD 54.0) could materially shift this read during the first hour of NY.
BoJ Governor Ueda speaks Tue 06:35 GMT; near-term hike language could reverse the London breakout.
11:46 UTC
Uptrend, extended after breakout · RSI 77 · price 158.284
Asian range high broken in late London; higher lows since 08:00 UTC.
London held above the Asian range and set a 157.57 low at 08:00 UTC. The pair then broke through the 158.17 Asian high in late London, printing a 158.29 session high as the yen gave back its post-NFP gains. RSI(14) is near 77 after a 30-pip burst over two bars, against an ATR of about 10 pips.
Support: 158.17, 158.00, 157.57
Resistance: 158.45, 158.70
What it said to watch
Retest of the 158.17 asian high: holding it keeps the breakout intact; a close back inside the Asian range marks a false break
M15 close below the london rising trend and the 158.00 round number puts the 38.2–50% london leg fib (158.01–157.93) in play
Break of the 157.57 london low negates the London higher-low sequence
158.45 thu high, then the 158.70 range top: areas to watch for rejection, with Japanese intervention rhetoric likely as price approaches
ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (S&P PMI 13:45 UTC) could materially shift this read
BoJ Ueda speech Tue 06:35 GMT is the next JPY-specific risk
11:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at Asian high · RSI 60 · price 158.113
London HH/HL chain off 157.567; spike above Asian range high not held on a close.
The London leg built higher lows off the 157.567 London low. A 11:15 UTC spike swept the 158.171 Asian high to 158.244 but closed back beneath it, and price is now holding just above the 158.00 round number with RSI(14) near 60. USD is firm on EUR-led and haven flows, while intervention risk toward the 158.45 Thu high caps the topside.
Support: 158.00, 157.871, 157.567
Resistance: 158.171, 158.244, 158.45
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.244 spike high turns the Asian high sweep into a breakout and exposes the 158.45 Thu high
Failure at the 158.00 round number and a break of the 157.871 higher low and London trendline ends the London leg uptrend; 157.567 London low is next
S&P Global PMI 13:45 UTC and ISM Services 14:00 UTC (f/c 55) during the first hour of NY could materially shift this read
Japanese verbal intervention rhetoric near the 158.45 Thu high, plus Ueda Tue 06:35 GMT, are event risk for the Asian range
11:16 UTC
Intraday higher lows inside the Asian range · RSI 68 · price 157.968
London HL chain pressing session high, below Asian high.
London has recovered from the 157.57 London low, holding above the 157.44 Asian low and building a higher low at the 157.87 swing low. Price is now pressing the 157.98 London high, a 61.8% retracement of the drop from the 158.17 Asian high, with RSI(14) near 68. The pair is still inside the Asian range, in line with the 157.70–158.00 chop as the dollar holds firm.
Support: 157.871, 157.567, 157.436
Resistance: 157.981, 158.171
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.98 London high opens the 158.17 Asian high
Loss of the 157.87 swing low breaks the London rising trendline and exposes the 157.57 London low
ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Intervention rhetoric risk builds into the 158.45–158.70 area above the Asian high
HH/HL chain off the London low, inside the Asian range.
USD/JPY remains inside the 157.436–158.171 Asian range, with London building a higher-low chain off the 157.567 london low as the dollar holds firm on euro weakness. Price is stalling at the 61.8% retrace of the Asian high-to-London low drop, just under the 157.981 session high and 158.00 round number.
Support: 157.871, 157.567, 157.436
Resistance: 157.981, 158.171
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.871 higher low breaks the London HH/HL chain and the rising trendline
A close above the 157.981 session high and 158.00 opens the path to the 158.171 asian high
Failure back under the 157.567 london low puts the 157.436 asian low in play
S&P Global PMI 13:45 UTC and ISM Services 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read into the NY open
10:46 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows through London · RSI 67 · price 157.971
Higher-low chain off 157.57 London low, inside 157.44–158.17 Asian range.
Mid-London, USDJPY has printed higher lows off the 157.57 london low and moved past the 61.8% of the asian high–london low drop. It is pressing 158.00 psych while still inside the 157.44–158.17 Asian range. The dollar holds steady after Friday's NFP-driven 156.95 spike, and RSI(14) at ~67 is firm but not stretched.
Support: 157.80, 157.567, 157.436
Resistance: 158.00, 158.171, 158.45
What it said to watch
Close above 158.17 asian high breaks the Asian range and exposes the 158.45 thu high, where intervention rhetoric has capped the pair
Loss of the 157.80 swing low breaks the London higher-low trendline and puts the 157.57 london low and 157.44 asian low back in play
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55) during NY hours could materially shift this read; Ueda speaks Tue 06:35 GMT
10:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend inside Asian range · RSI 64 · price 157.958
HH/HL chain from 157.57 London low, capped below 158.00.
London rebuilt from a 157.57 London low, a higher low above the 157.44 Asian low, and has printed higher highs and higher lows to a 157.98 session high just under 158.00. Price has reclaimed the 61.8% of the Asian drop fib (158.17–157.57) but is still inside the Asian range, with the 158.17 Asian high capping. The pair stays pinned near 158.00 as a firm dollar meets intervention-wary yen demand ahead of ISM Services.
Support: 157.80, 157.567, 157.436
Resistance: 157.981, 158.171, 158.45
What it said to watch
M15 close above 157.98 session high opens a retest of the 158.17 Asian high, and the 158.45 Thu high beyond that is where intervention rhetoric typically picks up
Break of the London trendline and the 157.80 swing low ends the HH/HL sequence and points back toward the 157.57 London low
Loss of 157.44 Asian low would turn the Asian range into a downside range break
ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55), a print ≤54 is the main risk to the dollar leg
BoJ Ueda Tue 06:35 GMT could reprice the yen ahead of the next Asia session
10:16 UTC
Intraday range, higher lows building through London · RSI 63 · price 157.926
Inside Asian range 157.436–158.171; London higher-low chain from 157.567.
Mid-London session, price recovered from a 157.567 london low that held above the 157.436 asia low. It now sits at 157.93, stalling at the 61.8% retrace of the asia high-to-london low drop just under the 158.00 round number. The pair remains pinned inside the Asian range, with dollar strength on EUR flows offset by intervention caps on the yen.
Support: 157.80, 157.567, 157.436
Resistance: 157.967, 158.00, 158.171
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.967 london high puts the 158.00 round number and 158.171 asia high in play
Loss of the 157.80 pivot low exposes the 157.567 london low
Break of the 157.436 asia low invalidates the higher-low line and the range read
US S&P Global PMI 13:45 UTC and ISM Services 14:00 UTC (f/c 55, TD 54.0) could materially shift this read
10:01 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher highs and higher lows since London open · RSI 65 · price 157.956
HH/HL chain off the 157.567 London low, pressing 158.00 inside the 157.436–158.171 Asian range.
Mid-London session, USDJPY has climbed about 40 pips from the 157.567 London low in a clean higher-high, higher-low chain and now sits just under the 158.00 round number. Price is still inside the Asian range of 157.436–158.171. A firm USD on euro weakness and haven demand is offsetting JPY support from Takaichi's debt-issuance pledge.
Support: 157.80, 157.567, 157.436
Resistance: 158.00, 158.171
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 158.00 round number puts the 158.171 Asian high back in play.
A break of the 157.80 swing low would end the London leg's higher-low chain and expose the 38.2–61.8% fib zone toward the London low.
Losing 157.567 and then the 157.436 Asian low would flip the session structure lower.
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7, prices paid in focus) could materially shift this read.
Ueda speaks Tue 06:35 UTC; intervention-risk commentary near 158.45–158.70 sits above the Asian high.
09:46 UTC
Intraday range, recovering from London low · RSI 59 · price 157.933
Inside Asian range 157.44–158.17, higher low in London.
Early London has held inside the 157.44–158.17 Asian range: the 157.567 london low printed above the 157.436 asian low, extending a rising lows line, and price has recovered to the 61.8% fib of the asian high sell-off near 157.94. USD is firm on euro weakness and haven demand while JPY stays rangebound, keeping the pair pinned below the 158.00 round number.
Support: 157.82, 157.567, 157.436
Resistance: 157.94, 158.00, 158.171
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.00 round number brings the 158.17 asian high back into play
Rejection at the 61.8% fib near 157.94 keeps the range read intact; a slip back under the ema20 near 157.82 shifts focus to the london low
Failure to hold the 157.567 london low and the rising lows line exposes the 157.436 asian low
US S&P PMI 13:45 UTC and ISM Services 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
09:31 UTC
Intraday range, recovering off London low · RSI 55 · price 157.88
Inside Asian range 157.44–158.17; higher lows off 157.57 since 08:00 UTC.
London has retraced half of the 158.17–157.57 drop from the Asian high and is building higher lows off the London low, with the 157.80 pivot low the latest. Price is pressing the 157.91 London high inside the 50–61.8% fib zone, still well within the Asian range. Broad USD strength on the euro selloff keeps the pair pinned near the 158.00 round number.
Support: 157.80, 157.57, 157.44
Resistance: 157.91, 158.00, 158.17
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.91 London high and 158.00 round number opens a retest of the 158.17 Asian high
Loss of the 157.80 pivot low breaks the London uptrend line and exposes 157.57, then the 157.44 Asian low
S&P PMI 13:45 UTC and ISM Services 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read during NY hours
Higher low at 157.57 inside the 157.44–158.17 Asian range, price at range midpoint.
London faded the 158.17 asian high to a 157.57 london low, a higher low than the 157.44 asian low. Buyers then stepped in for a bounce to the 157.91 london high. Price now sits at the Asian range midpoint (~157.80, 50% fib) on flat EMA20/50 with RSI(14) at 53, fitting the digest's read of intervention risk capping the topside while broad USD strength cushions dips.
Support: 157.57, 157.44
Resistance: 157.91, 158.17
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.91 london high reopens the 158.17 asian high
Break of the higher-low line (~157.59) and the 157.57 london low exposes the 157.44 asian low
US S&P Global PMI at 13:45 UTC and ISM Services at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Approach toward 158.45–158.70 raises MoF intervention-warning risk per the digest
08:46 UTC
Range-bound, rebounding off the London low · RSI 46 · price 157.841
Inside the Asian range 157.44–158.17; supply below 158.00, London low at 157.57.
Asia ran from the 157.44 Asian low to a 158.17 Asian high, then supply returned and pushed price back below the 158.00 round number, which matches the intervention-risk ceiling in the yen read. The London open extended the pullback to a 157.57 London low near the 78.6% retrace of the Asian swing. Price has since rebounded to 157.84, holding above the fib 61.8% at 157.72 and sitting on the flat EMA20/EMA50 cluster near 157.81.
Support: 157.72, 157.567, 157.436
Resistance: 158.00, 158.171
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 158.00 round number reopens the Asian high at 158.17
Loss of the 157.567 London low exposes the 157.436 Asian low and breaks the range floor
Rebound failing below the fib 61.8% at 157.72 would mark a lower high within the range
US S&P Global PMI 13:45 UTC and ISM Services 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
MoF intervention rhetoric if price presses above 158.00
Lower highs and lower lows from 158.17; London bounce testing first lower high.
Asia rallied from the 157.44 asian low to a 158.17 asian high, then met rejection around the 158 handle, an area flagged for intervention risk, and printed lower highs. Early London extended that pullback to a 157.57 london low before a sharp bounce to 157.80, which sits on the 38.2% fib and EMA20 just under the 157.82 lower high.
Support: 157.57, 157.44
Resistance: 157.82, 158.05, 158.17
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.82 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 158 handle at 158.05 and then the 158.17 asian high
Failure to hold the 157.57 london low exposes the 157.44 asian low
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7, TD 54.0) could materially shift this read
MoF intervention rhetoric if price presses back above 158.00
08:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend off Asia high, momentum soft · RSI 32 · price 157.66
Lower highs and lower lows since 158.17, retracing most of the Asian rally.
The Asian rally ran from the 157.44 Asian low to a 158.17 Asian high, then faded on rejection above the 158.00 round number. London open has extended the pullback in a lower-high chain, with the 157.57 London low sitting near the 78.6% retrace of the Asian rally. RSI(14) is around 32 and price is below both EMAs as broad USD demand meets intervention caution near 158.
Support: 157.57, 157.44
Resistance: 157.82, 158.00, 158.17
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 157.82 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 157.57 London low exposes the 157.44 Asian low and a full retrace of the Asian rally
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) during NY hours could materially shift this read
Intervention rhetoric risk rises on any push back toward the 158.00 round number
08:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend from session high, RSI near oversold · RSI 29 · price 157.612
Lower highs and lower lows since 158.17 rejection; Asian rally ~78% retraced.
USD/JPY was rejected at the 158.17 session high in late Asia, near the 158.00 intervention-capped ceiling, and has printed lower highs since. The pair is now about an hour into London, pressing the 157.61 london low and the 78.6% retracement of the Asian rally, with RSI(14) near 29. The haven USD bid has not carried the pair through 158.
Support: 157.607, 157.436
Resistance: 157.804, 158.171
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.80 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 157.61 london low exposes the 157.44 asian low
ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (S&P PMI 13:45) could materially shift this read
MoF intervention rhetoric on any return toward the 158.17 session high
07:46 UTC
Pullback after Asian session rally, momentum soft · RSI 38 · price 157.702
Lower highs from 158.17; early-London range 157.63–157.82.
Asia ran from the 157.44 asian low to a 158.17 asian high, where supply capped the move just above 158.00. Price has since retraced about 61.8% of that Asian rally through a lower high at 158.05. Early London is holding a 157.63 london low to 157.82 london high range, with RSI(14) near 38 and USD in a haven-driven, two-way tone.
Support: 157.63, 157.44
Resistance: 157.82, 158.05, 158.17
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 157.63 london low exposes the 157.44 asian low and a full retrace of the Asian rally
M15 close above the 157.82 london high and the lower highs line near 157.90 would neutralise the pullback, with the 158.05 lower high next
ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read; a soft print puts 157.00 back in focus
Any MoF intervention rhetoric on a return to the 158.17 asian high
Lower highs since 158.17 Asian high, basing at 157.63.
The Asian rally from 157.44 stalled at a 158.17 Asian high just above the 158 psych level, which the JPY digest flags as an intervention-risk cap. Price has printed lower highs into the London open and is sitting at the 61.8% fib of the Asian rally near 157.72, with the London low at 157.63 holding so far. Haven USD demand on French fiscal and Yemen headlines keeps the pair supported, with price below both EMAs.
Support: 157.63, 157.436
Resistance: 157.85, 158.171
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.85 lower high breaks the descending sequence and puts the 158 psych level back in play
Failure to hold the 157.63 london low exposes the asian low at 157.44 and the 78.6% fib
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC, forecast 55.7 with TD at 54.0, could materially shift this read
Any MoF intervention language on a return toward the 158.17 asian high
07:16 UTC
Pullback within Asian range, lower highs · RSI 37 · price 157.718
Lower highs and lower lows since 158.17 Asian high, sitting on the 61.8% retrace.
Asia rallied from the 157.44 Asian low to a 158.17 Asian high, where supply capped near the 158.00 round number, consistent with intervention sensitivity. The fade since then has printed lower highs at 158.05 and 157.82 and has slipped back to the 61.8% retrace near 157.72 in the first half-hour of London, with a 157.63 swing low beneath.
Support: 157.63, 157.436
Resistance: 157.823, 158.171
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.63 swing low extends the lower-low chain toward the 157.44 Asian low
Reclaim of the 157.82 lower high neutralises the pullback and reopens 158.00 and the 158.17 Asian high
ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read; a soft print puts the 157.00 post-NFP floor back in focus
MoF verbal intervention headlines on any return toward 158.00
Lower highs from 158.17 Asia high, price at 61.8% of Asia rally.
The Asia session rally from the 157.44 Asia low stalled at the 158.17 Asia high. Supply has capped price above the 158.00 round number, where the digest flags intervention risk, and lower highs since have pulled USDJPY back to 157.71 at the 61.8% retracement and the 157.65 swing low. London open is minutes away with the USD safe-haven bid offsetting yen support, and price sits below both EMAs.
Support: 157.65, 157.44, 156.95
Resistance: 157.82, 158.00, 158.17
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.65 swing low exposes the 157.44 asia low
Close above the 157.82 lower high breaks the descending line and the lower-high sequence
Failure at 158.00 again keeps the 157-158 range intact, with intervention risk near that round number
Holding 157.44 matters; a break leaves the 156.95 post-nfp low as the range floor
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
06:31 UTC
Pullback within the 157-158 range · RSI 39 · price 157.753
Lower highs off 158.17 Asia high, retracing the Asia rally.
Asia rallied from the 157.44 asian low to a 158.17 session high, then stalled. A run of lower highs pulled price back through the 158.00 round number, where intervention risk caps the topside, to the 61.8% fib of the Asia rally near 157.71 ahead of London open. A safe-haven USD bid is offsetting yen support, keeping the pair pinned in its 157-158 range.
Support: 157.71, 157.44
Resistance: 158.00, 158.17
What it said to watch
Close below 157.71 (fib 61.8) exposes the 157.44 asian low
Recovery back above the 158.00 round number and the lower-highs line negates the pullback read
London open at 07:00 UTC may set a new session range from this midpoint
ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
Asian range 157.44–158.17; 04:15 UTC high rejected, lower highs since.
Asia session dipped to the 157.44 Asian low, then rallied through the 157.91 Friday high to a 158.17 session high. It stalled just above the 158.00 round number, where JPY intervention risk caps the safe-haven USD bid. The move back below the Friday high leaves a false break, and price now sits at the 157.71 fib 61.8 of the 157.44–158.17 rally ahead of London open, with RSI(14) near 38.
Support: 157.71, 157.60, 157.44
Resistance: 157.91, 158.00, 158.17
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.71 fib 61.8 exposes the 157.60 early low, then the 157.44 Asian low
Reclaim of the 157.91 Friday high negates the false-break read and puts the 158.00 round number back in play
Renewed rejection near the 158.17 session high would mark a second failure where intervention risk sits
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read in NY hours
06:01 UTC
Asia rally rolling over, pulling back into the range midpoint · RSI 47 · price 157.812
Lower high after 158.17 peak; Asia rally trendline broken.
Haven-driven USD demand lifted price in the Asia session off the 157.44 Asia low, through the 157.91 Friday high, to 158.17. Supply capped the move just above psych 158.00, near the intervention-risk zone. The 05:30 UTC bar's 24-pip drop broke the Asia rally trendline and returned price to the fib 50% at 157.80 ahead of London open, with RSI(14) neutral near 47 and price below EMA20/EMA50.
Support: 157.80, 157.72, 157.44
Resistance: 157.91, 158.00, 158.17
What it said to watch
A close below the fib 61.8% at 157.72 erodes the fib 50% hold and exposes the asia low at 157.44
Recovery back above the friday high at 157.91 and psych 158.00 reopens the asia high at 158.17
MoF intervention rhetoric near 158.00 would reinforce the rejection read
ISM Services 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
05:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, holding above 158.00 after a pullback · RSI 63 · price 158.018
Higher lows from the 157.44 Asian low; Friday high broken and retested.
Late in the Asia session, USD/JPY rallied about 70 pips off the 157.44 Asian low, cleared the 157.91 Friday high and 158.00, and set a session high at 158.17 on the haven USD bid tied to the Yemen headlines. The pullback to the 157.94 pullback low held just above the Friday high and roughly 32% of the leg on the fib, so the breakout retest is intact with RSI(14) near 63.
Support: 157.94, 157.91, 157.44
Resistance: 158.17
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 157.91 Friday high turns the breakout into a false break and puts the 38.2% fib near 157.89 in play
A close below the rising trendline from the 157.44 Asian low breaks the higher-low chain
A close above the 158.17 session high extends the leg into the 158 intervention-risk zone, where MoF rhetoric could cap it
London open in about 1h may bring a fresh test of either side of the Asia range
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
Higher low at 157.94 after Asia rally from 157.44 to 158.17.
Late in the Asia session, the 157.44 asia low gave way to a rally through 158.00 and Friday's 157.91 post-NFP high, with the Yemen safe-haven USD bid behind it. The move topped at a 158.17 session high. The pullback held a 157.94 swing low just above the friday high, with RSI(14) near 63 and ATR around 10 pips.
Support: 157.94, 157.91, 157.44
Resistance: 158.17, 158.50
What it said to watch
A close back below the 157.94 swing low and the 157.91 friday high would turn the breakout into a false break and break rising support.
An M15 close above the 158.17 session high resumes the higher-high sequence toward the 158.50 round number, where intervention rhetoric becomes a brake.
Loss of the 157.44 asia low would erase the entire Asia rally.
London open is due shortly and US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC is a likely volatility trigger; a firm print pressures the range top.
HH/HL chain off Asia low, first pullback from 158.17.
Late Asia session: price rallied from the 157.44 asia low to a 158.17 asia high, clearing Friday's 157.91 high and the 158.00 psych handle as Yemen headlines lifted safe-haven USD demand. The latest bar was rejected back below 158.00 to 157.97 and now sits just above EMA20 (~157.93) and the friday high. RSI(14) has cooled to ~55.
Support: 157.91, 157.80, 157.44
Resistance: 158.00, 158.17
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 157.91 friday high opens the 50% fib at 157.80
A reclaim of 158.00 psych and a break of the 158.17 asia high would extend the HH chain; intervention rhetoric above 158.00 is the brake
Loss of the 50% fib and the 157.44 asia low would unwind the Asia rally
London open in ~2h; US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia rally from 157.44 broke Friday high; tight hold above 158.00.
Asia session reversed an early dip to the 157.44 asian low into a 74-pip advance through the 157.92 friday high and the 158.00 round number, topping at the 158.17 session high on safe-haven USD demand tied to Yemen headlines. Price is now compressing just above 158.00 late in Asia hours, with RSI(14) cooling to ~63 from the rally peak.
Support: 158.00, 157.92, 157.44
Resistance: 158.17
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.00 round number puts the break of the 157.92 friday high in question
Repeated failure at the 158.17 session high keeps a 158.00–158.17 consolidation in place into London open
Loss of the 38.2% asian rally fib near 157.89 exposes the 50% at 157.80 and the 157.44 asian low
US ISM Services 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
04:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling under session high · RSI 69 · price 158.099
Higher highs and higher lows off the 157.44 Asia low; broke Friday's high and 158.00, now tight below 158.17.
The Asia session rallied about 73 pips off the 157.44 session low, clearing Friday's prior high at 157.91 and the 158.00 round number on safe-haven USD demand. The last three bars are compressing under the 158.17 session high with RSI(14) near 69, about two hours ahead of the London open.
Support: 158.00, 157.91, 157.44
Resistance: 158.17, 158.50
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 158.00 round number would mark the breakout as a false break
Failure to hold the 157.91 prior high, which overlaps the 38.2% fib of the Asia rally at 157.89, breaks the higher-low chain
A clean break of the 158.17 session high leaves the 158.50 psych level as the next reference; intervention-warning risk rises above 158.00
US ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
04:31 UTC
Uptrend, pressing session high · RSI 69 · price 158.123
Asia break above Friday high; higher lows off 157.44.
Asia session rallied about 73 pips off the 157.44 Asian low, clearing Friday's high at 157.91 and the 158.00 psych level on safe-haven USD demand, then set a session high at 158.17. The retest of the Friday high held, in line with the 38.2% fib of the Asian move. RSI(14) near 69 is firm but not stretched.
Support: 158.00, 157.91, 157.44
Resistance: 158.17, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 158.00 psych would flag a false break above the Friday high
Failure to hold 157.91 (Friday high / 38.2% fib) reopens the 157.80 midpoint and the 157.44 Asian low
Extension through the 158.17 session high toward the 158.50 round number raises MoF intervention-warning risk
US S&P Global PMI 13:45 UTC and ISM Services 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
04:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, extended near session high · RSI 67 · price 158.10
HH/HL chain from the 157.44 Asia low; break above Friday high and 158.00.
Asia session reversed from the 157.44 session low into a clean HH/HL chain, clearing the 157.92 Friday high and the 158.00 round number. Price is pinned just under the 158.12 session high with RSI(14) near 67, extending past the stalled range the digest describes on a safe-haven USD bid, even after hot Tokyo CPI.
Support: 158.00, 157.92, 157.44
Resistance: 158.12, 158.50
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 158.00 round number marks the breakout as a false break and puts the 157.92 Friday high back in play
An M15 close below the session trendline breaks the HL chain; the fib 61.8% near 157.70 is the deeper reference
Acceptance above the 158.12 session high leaves 158.50 psych as the next reference, with MoF/BoJ intervention-warning risk rising above 158.00
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) and S&P Global PMI at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
A move back toward the 157.44 session low would put the Asia rally fully in reverse
04:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend, extending into late Asia · RSI 69 · price 158.123
Higher-high/higher-low chain from 157.44 Asia low, Friday high broken.
The Asia session reversed from a 157.44 asia low and broke the 157.92 friday high and the 158.00 handle, with the pullback holding near 157.91 as a retest of that friday high before a fresh session high at 158.12. Safe-haven USD demand reversing Friday's post-NFP dip is driving the move. RSI(14) sits near 69, firm but not stretched.
Support: 157.92, 157.44
Resistance: 158.12, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 157.92 friday high turns the breakout into a false break and breaks the higher-low chain
158.00 is the cited weekly high where MoF intervention rhetoric risk rises; extension toward the 158.50 round number runs into that cap
Stall below the 158.12 session high into London open would leave the Asia range intact as the reference
ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read; a clear miss reopens the 157.44 asia low
03:46 UTC
Uptrend, pressing session high · RSI 65 · price 158.062
Higher-low chain off 157.44 Asia low, through 158.00.
Asia session dipped to a 157.44 session low early in Tokyo hours, then built higher lows through Friday's 157.91 high and the 158.00 round number, which the digest flags as the weekly high and intervention-risk zone. Safe-haven USD demand and a soft Japan Services PMI frame the move; RSI(14) near 65 is firm, not stretched, with price holding just under the 158.08 session high ahead of London open.
Support: 158.00, 157.91, 157.44
Resistance: 158.08
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.00 round number marks a false break of the weekly high
Loss of the 157.91 friday high and the higher-low line reopens the 61.8% fib area near 157.68
Extension above the 158.08 session high raises MoF intervention-rhetoric risk
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
V-recovery from 157.44 session low; break above Friday high, higher lows since 01:15 UTC.
Asia session dipped to a 157.44 session low, then rallied about 60 pips through Friday's 157.91 post-NFP high (fri high) to tag 158.05 (session high) as haven USD demand returned. Price is holding just under the 158.00 psych level with RSI(14) near 60. The fib 50% of the Asia rally sits at 157.745.
Support: 157.914, 157.745, 157.436
Resistance: 158.00, 158.054
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 157.91 fri high on an M15 close puts the breakout in doubt and exposes the fib 50% at 157.745
Acceptance above the 158.05 session high extends the leg, but 158.00 psych is the zone where intervention rhetoric has surfaced
A move back below 157.44 session low would undo the Asia recovery
US ISM Services PMI 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
03:16 UTC
Intraday up-leg, pressing range top · RSI 61 · price 157.967
V-shaped Asia recovery from session low; higher high above Friday's prior high, now stalling at 158.00.
Mid-Asia session, price has rebounded 60 pips from the 157.44 session low to clear Friday's 157.91 prior high and tag a 158.05 session high as haven USD demand returns. The last two bars are stalling just under the 158.00 psych level, the top of the 157–158 range where intervention rhetoric caps the topside. RSI(14) has cooled to ~61 from the push.
Support: 157.914, 157.818, 157.436
Resistance: 158.00, 158.054
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 157.91 prior high turns the breakout into a false break
Hold of the fib 38.2 near 157.82 keeps the higher-low sequence from the 157.44 session low intact
Acceptance above 158.00 psych and the 158.05 session high extends the range break; MoF jawboning risk rises there
Failure back through 157.44 session low negates the Asia rebound
US ISM Services 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
03:01 UTC
Uptrend off Tokyo-open low, pausing at 158.00 · RSI 62 · price 157.975
Higher-low chain from the 157.44 swing low; Asian session high and Friday high broken.
Mid-Asia session: USD/JPY dipped to a 157.44 swing low after the Tokyo open, then rallied in a higher-low chain through the Friday high at 157.91 to a 158.03 session high, the top of the 157-158 range where intervention risk is flagged. Haven USD demand on geopolitics is behind the bid. RSI(14) has cooled to ~62 as the first bar after the high stalls just under 158.00.
Support: 157.91, 157.75, 157.44
Resistance: 158.03
What it said to watch
Holding above the 157.91 friday high keeps the breakout read intact; an M15 close back under the 157.75 higher low returns price to the session range
Acceptance above the 158.03 session high clears the 158.00 weekly high, where MoF/intervention rhetoric risk rises
A break below the rally trendline from the 157.44 swing low weakens the higher-low structure
London open at 07:00 UTC is the next test of the Asian range; US S&P PMI 13:45 UTC and ISM Services 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
02:46 UTC
Intraday recovery, testing upper Asian range · RSI 59 · price 157.853
V-shaped rebound from 157.436 session low, higher lows since 01:15 UTC.
Asia session opened with a rejection at the 157.966 session high and a slide to the 157.436 session low, then a V-shaped recovery back to Friday's close, despite the soft Japan Services PMI. Price now sits at the 78.6% retrace just under the 157.914 friday high, with RSI(14) near 59 and ATR around 12 pips.
Support: 157.76, 157.436
Resistance: 157.914, 157.966, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.966 session high breaks the Asian range and puts the 158.00 psych level in play, where intervention rhetoric risk rises
Slip back under the 61.8% fib at 157.76 turns the rebound into a lower high inside the range
Loss of the 157.436 session low reopens the lower half of the post-NFP recovery
ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC today (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
02:31 UTC
Two-way, recovering from Asia dip · RSI 53 · price 157.764
V-shaped Asia recovery inside 157.44–157.97 session range.
Asia session faded from the thin-open asia high at 157.966 to an asia low at 157.436. The break under the 157.60 prior low failed and price has rebounded to the 61.8% of the Asia drop, back into Friday's late range just under the 157.84 fri close, as haven USD demand returned after the Japan Services PMI miss.
Support: 157.60, 157.436, 156.945
Resistance: 157.84, 157.966, 158.023
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.84 fri close and the 157.966 asia high reopens the 158.023 weekly high, where intervention rhetoric risk rises
Slip back under the 157.60 prior low and the 157.436 asia low turns the rebound into a lower-high, with the 156.945 nfp low next
US ISM Services PMI 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
Asia session lower highs from 157.97; false break below 157.60 floor reclaimed.
Monday's Asia session faded from the 157.97 session high and broke the 157.60 range floor to a 157.44 session low. The break was reclaimed within three bars, and the false break has carried price back above the 61.8% of the session drop and into the descending lower-high line near 157.78. RSI(14) is neutral near 53, with haven USD demand cited for the rebound off Friday's post-NFP base.
Support: 157.70, 157.60, 157.44
Resistance: 157.83, 157.97, 158.02
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 157.60 range floor negates the false break and reopens the 157.44 session low
Holding the 157.70 ema20 and closing through the 157.83 lower high breaks the lower-high line
Close above the 157.97 session high exposes the 158.02 weekly high, where intervention rhetoric risk rises
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
02:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend, early bounce · RSI 40 · price 157.584
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia session, below Friday's late range.
The Asia session faded from the 157.97 week open hi through a chain of lower highs. It broke below Friday's prior range of 157.79–157.87 and set an Asian low at 157.44, just above Friday's post-NFP pullback low near 157.41, despite the safe-haven USD bid flagged in the digest. Price is bouncing to the 157.61 bounce high, just under the 38.2% fib at 157.64, with RSI(14) near 40 and ATR(14) about 12 pips.
Support: 157.44, 157.41, 156.95
Resistance: 157.61, 157.83, 157.97
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 157.44 asian low and 157.41 pullback low opens a path toward the 156.95 post-nfp low / 157.00 floor
M15 close above 157.61 bounce high, then the descending trendline near 157.77, challenges the lower-high chain
Reclaiming 157.83 prior range invalidates the Asia breakdown read
ISM Services 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows through the Asia session since the 157.97 open spike.
Asia session faded from the 157.97 session high into a Tokyo-morning slide to a 157.44 session low, just above Friday's 157.41 swing low. RSI(14) is near 38 and price sits below both EMAs. The old 157.60 prior low now overhead, and the lower high at 157.83 caps the sequence despite the digest's USD safe-haven bid.
Support: 157.44, 157.41, 156.95
Resistance: 157.60, 157.83, 157.97
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 157.83 lower high breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold 157.41 swing low exposes the 156.95 nfp low from Friday's payrolls drop
Reclaim of 157.60 prior low (near 38.2% retrace) would signal the Tokyo slide is stalling
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC today could materially shift this read
Monday Asian range broken lower, testing Friday lows.
Monday Asia session has faded from a 157.97 session high in a run of lower highs. Price broke the 157.60 broken low and is pressing Friday's 157.41 prior low, with RSI(14) near 33 and not yet oversold. USD stays heavy after Friday's 29K NFP miss, while JPY has drawn little support from the soft Jibun Services PMI.
Support: 157.41, 156.95
Resistance: 157.60, 157.83, 157.97
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.41 prior low exposes Friday's 156.95 nfp low
Recapture of the 157.60 broken low reopens the 157.83 lower high and the lower-highs trendline
Close above the 157.97 session high invalidates the intraday downtrend read
ISM Services PMI (Mon 14:00 UTC, f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
Asia session range 157.60–157.97 with lower highs.
Early Monday Asia is trading inside Friday's post-NFP recovery range. The bounce off the 156.95 NFP low ran out at the 157.91 post-NFP high, and since the open the pair has printed lower highs from the 157.97 session high. Dips to the 157.60 session low, near the 23.6% retrace of the recovery, have been absorbed, and the soft Jibun Services PMI barely registered in thin flow.
Support: 157.60, 157.47, 156.95
Resistance: 157.91, 157.97
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.60 session low breaks the Asian range and exposes the 157.47 pre-NFP low, then the 156.95 NFP low
Close above the lower-highs line and the 157.91 post-NFP high / 157.97 session high opens psych 158, where intervention chatter has capped
ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
Asia range 157.60–157.97, lower highs off the open.
Early Monday Asia session is holding a 157.60–157.97 range inside Friday's recovery from the 156.95 nfp low, which followed the 29K payrolls miss. The opening spike to the 157.97 asia high was rejected, and dips to the 157.60 asia low drew demand. Price sits near the 38.2% fib of that leg, capped below the 157.81 bounce high and slightly under EMA20/50, with RSI(14) ~44.
Support: 157.60, 157.47, 156.95
Resistance: 157.81, 157.97, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.60 asia low exposes the 157.47 fri swing lo
Close above the 157.81 bounce high puts the 157.97 asia high back in play; beyond it, 158.00 psych is the intervention-warning zone
ISM Services (14:00 UTC, f/c 55.7) and S&P PMI (13:45 UTC) later today could break the Asian range
00:31 UTC
Sideways to soft, lower highs in Asia · RSI 42 · price 157.697
Early-Asia range 157.60–157.97 with lower highs off the session high.
The Asia session opened flat near Friday's 157.84 close. A spike to the 157.97 session high was rejected, and the pair has printed lower highs since, with price now just above the 157.60 session low and near the 23.6% retrace of the post-NFP rebound. Trade is thin with no fresh driver after Friday's NFP-miss dip to 156.95 was fully reversed. RSI(14) is near 42 and ATR is about 10 pips.
Support: 157.60, 157.47
Resistance: 157.81, 157.97, 158.22
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.60 session low exposes the 38.2% post-NFP rebound retrace near 157.54 and Friday's 157.47 london low
Close above the 157.81 lower high breaks the session lower-highs line and reopens the 157.97 session high
158.00–158.22 prior high zone is where intervention warnings are flagged in the digest
ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
Asia range 157.60–157.97 inside Friday's post-NFP rebound.
Monday opened flat to Friday's close, and early Asia session has ranged between the asia low at 157.60 and the asia high at 157.97. That high briefly cleared Friday's rebound high at 157.91 before fading. Price holds roughly 20% into the post-NFP rebound from 156.95, with the 157.60 dip bought back on the close and RSI(14) neutral near 42.
Support: 157.60, 157.47
Resistance: 157.91, 157.97, 158.22
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.60 asia low exposes the 38.2% post-NFP rebound fib near 157.54 and the 157.47 pre-nfp low
Close above the 157.97 asia high and the 157.91 rebound high reopens 158.00 and the 158.22 friday high, where intervention-risk headlines tend to intensify
US ISM Services (14:00 UTC, f/c 55.7) and S&P PMI (13:45 UTC) later today could materially shift this read
00:01 UTC
Sideways, slight downside drift in early Asia · RSI 41 · price 157.743
Asian range 157.63–157.97, holding inside Friday's post-NFP recovery.
Early Asia session: Monday opened near Friday's 157.84 close, pushed to a 157.966 session high, met rejection there and slipped to a 157.626 session low. The bounce stalled at the 157.81 bounce high, and price now sits mid-range below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) near 41. The read is consolidation after Friday's full reversal of the NFP dip to 156.95, with the NFP rally fib 23.6% (~157.73) underfoot.
Support: 157.626, 157.47
Resistance: 157.812, 157.966, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.626 session low exposes the 38.2% of the NFP rally fib near 157.58 and the 157.47 pre-nfp low
Acceptance above the 157.81 bounce high puts the 157.966 session high and the 158.00 psych level back in play
158.00 psych is the area where intervention rhetoric has capped prior pushes
US ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read