Early Asia session push cleared the 158.245 prior high and set a fresh session high at 158.30, with RSI(14) near 67. The NY session held twin lows at 157.91, and price has since ground higher along rising lows, with 158.08 the last swing low.
Support: 158.245, 158.08, 157.91
Resistance: 158.30, 158.45
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.245 prior high turns the breakout into a false break
Break of the 158.08 swing low ends the rising-lows sequence and exposes the 157.91 twin lows
158.45 band top (UOB intraday range) is the next resistance above the 158.30 session high
Reaction to Japan Labor Cash Earnings (f/c 3.7%) could shift this read; a hot print puts the 158.00 pivot back in play
Rising lows from 157.91 double bottom, pressing 158.26 window high.
The rally off the 157.91 double bottom from the London-NY transition has held a series of rising lows through NY. Early Asia lifted price off the 158.17 shelf to a 158.26 window high, a marginal push over the 158.245 London highs, with RSI(14) near 60 and the tape quiet ahead of Japan wage data.
Support: 158.17, 158.06, 157.91
Resistance: 158.26, 158.45
What it said to watch
Japan Labor Cash Earnings at 23:30 UTC (f/c 3.7%, prev 4.7%) lands on the current bar; a hot print could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 158.26 window high opens the path to the 158.45 band top
Failure to hold the 158.17 shelf exposes the 158.06 ny low and the rising lows line
Break below the 157.91 double btm invalidates the recovery structure
Range 157.91–158.245 with higher lows since London, price at the top.
Early Asia is retesting the 158.24–158.245 session high, a level capped in Asia and London on Tuesday. Rising lows from the 157.91 double low, set in the London-NY transition, have pinned price into the top of the range. The 158 pivot held all session as the yen stayed rangebound after Ueda, with ATR at about 4 pips.
Support: 158.076, 158.00, 157.911
Resistance: 158.245, 158.45
What it said to watch
Japan Labor Cash Earnings at 23:30 UTC (f/c 3.7%): a print above ~4.2% could break the rising lows and the 158.08 swing low toward the 158 pivot
M15 close above the 158.245 session high breaks the range top and opens the 158.45 band top
Loss of the 157.91 double low invalidates the higher-low read
Range 157.91–158.25 with higher lows since NY low.
Quiet early Asia session at 158.17, in the upper half of the 157.91–158.25 range after buyers defended the ny low twice around the NY open. Higher lows since then have kept the pair above the 158 pivot, with the GPIF report supporting USD. The london high at 158.245 still caps.
Support: 158.076, 158.00, 157.911
Resistance: 158.245, 158.45
What it said to watch
Japan Labor Cash Earnings at 23:30 UTC (f/c 3.7%) could materially shift this read; a print at or above ~4.2% puts the 158 pivot and ny low at 157.91 back in play
M15 close below the 158.076 higher low breaks the higher-lows trendline and returns price to the range middle
A close above the london high at 158.245 opens the path to the 158.45 range top
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC are the next USD-side risk to this read
22:46 UTC
Sideways, compressing after Asia rally · RSI 55 · price 158.171
Rising lows inside 158.06–158.20 band below double-capped day high.
Asia's leg off 157.77 stalled twice at the 158.245 day high in London. The NY-open dip was bought at the 157.91 session low, just beyond the 61.8% of the Asia leg, and the pair has since held above the 158.00 round number, compressing into a 158.06 swing low to 158.20 ny high band with rising lows. Into the quiet post-NY hour the pair sits near the top of that band; Japan wage data at 23:30 GMT is the next catalyst.
Support: 158.06, 158.00, 157.91
Resistance: 158.20, 158.245, 158.45
What it said to watch
Japan Aug Labor Cash Earnings at 23:30 GMT (f/c 3.7%) is the next catalyst for a break of the 158.06–158.20 band
M15 close above the 158.20 ny high and 158.245 day high opens the path to the 158.45 uob band
Loss of the 158.06 swing low and the rising lows line puts the 158.00 round number and 157.91 session low back in play
Tight 158.06–158.20 coil with higher lows beneath a flat range top.
USDJPY has coiled between 158.06 and 158.20 since late NY and into the Asia open. It is holding above the 158 pivot after the GPIF report lifted it back from the 157.91 ny low. Higher lows are building since the swing low at 158.06 against a flat range top, with the london high at 158.245 capping the day.
Support: 158.076, 158.00, 157.911
Resistance: 158.20, 158.245
What it said to watch
Japan Aug Labor Cash Earnings at 23:30 GMT (f/c 3.7%) could break the 158.06–158.20 coil either way
An M15 close above the 158.20 range top opens the 158.245 london high
Loss of the 158.076 swing low and the higher-lows line puts the 158 pivot and the 157.91 ny low back in play
22:16 UTC
Sideways, rising lows since NY low · RSI 55 · price 158.167
157.91–158.25 range; higher lows off the NY low, capped below the London high.
USDJPY has held a 157.91–158.25 band since London. The double bottom at the NY low near 157.91 led to a chain of rising lows back above the 158 pivot as the yen lagged the dollar pullback. Early Asia is drifting between the late low at 158.08 and the NY high at 158.20, with RSI near 55 and ATR around 4.5 pips, so no break is in play yet.
Support: 158.076, 158.00, 157.911
Resistance: 158.197, 158.245
What it said to watch
Japan Aug Labor Cash Earnings at 23:30 GMT (f/c 3.7%) could materially shift this read; a hot print puts the 158 pivot and NY low at risk
M15 close above the 158.245 London high breaks the session range and opens 158.45
Loss of the late low at 158.08 and the rising lows line returns focus to the 158 pivot
Failure to hold the 157.91 NY low invalidates the double bottom and the range read
22:02 UTC
Sideways, compressing near 158.00 · RSI 43 · price 158.08
Inside Asian range, lower highs since London.
The day held inside the Asian range of 157.77–158.25. London capped at the 158.245 session high, and twin lows at 157.91 held through the London-NY transition, with the 158 pivot near the 50% retrace of the Asia-London leg. Since then lower highs into the 158.17 late NY high have compressed price to 158.08, just above the 158.06 NY low, with the pair still pinned near 158 as the digest describes.
Support: 158.06, 158.00, 157.91
Resistance: 158.17, 158.245
What it said to watch
Japan Labor Cash Earnings at 23:30 GMT: an M15 close below the 158.06 ny low and the 158 pivot exposes the 157.91 twin lows
A close above the lower highs line and the 158.17 late ny high reopens the 158.245 session high and Asian range top
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
21:46 UTC
Sideways, mild drift lower in late NY · RSI 48 · price 158.095
157.91–158.25 range; lower highs off 158.20 since mid-NY.
USD/JPY has held a 157.91–158.25 range since London set the day high. Buyers stepped in twice at the 157.91 NY low and lifted the pair back to the 158.20 session high. Since then, thin post-NY trade has carved lower highs toward the 158.06 swing low, with price just under EMA20/50 and RSI near 48.
Support: 158.06, 158.00, 157.91
Resistance: 158.20, 158.245
What it said to watch
Japan Aug Labor Cash Earnings at 23:30 GMT (f/c 3.7%) could break the range; a hot print puts the 158.00 psych pivot and 157.91 NY low in play
M15 close below the 158.06 swing low extends the lower-high drift toward 158.00 psych
Close above the 158.20 session high breaks the lower-high trendline and reopens the 158.245 day high
Price holding above 158.13 keeps the move inside the shallow part of the NY low-high retrace
21:31 UTC
Sideways, momentum flat · RSI 50 · price 158.095
Range 157.91–158.245 since London, compressing post-NY.
USD/JPY has held a 157.91–158.245 range since London. The London high capped price, and the London-NY drop set a double low at 157.91 as the 158.00 pivot traded both ways. After the NY close, price is compressing between the ny low at 158.06 and the ny high at 158.197, about half of that drop retraced, with RSI(14) flat near 50 and price just under both EMAs.
Support: 158.06, 158.00, 157.91
Resistance: 158.197, 158.245
What it said to watch
Japan Aug Labor Cash Earnings at 23:30 GMT: a print at or above 4.2% puts the 157.91 double low in play
An earnings print at or below 3.2% exposes the 158.245 london high
An M15 close below the 158.06 ny low shifts focus to the 158.00 pivot
An M15 close above the 158.245 london high breaks the range read
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
21:03 UTC
Intraday range after Asia rally, momentum fading · RSI 42 · price 158.096
Pennant of lower highs and higher lows since NY open; last bar testing the pennant base.
Asia ran from the 157.77 low to a 158.245 London high. The NY open dropped to the 157.91 NY low, which held twice, and price has since compressed into a pennant below the 158.21 pennant top. Late in NY the last bar slipped under the pennant base toward the 158.06 swing low, which sits at the 38.2% fib of the Asia-London leg. RSI(14) is near 42 and ATR(14) has shrunk to about 4.5 pips.
Support: 158.059, 158.00, 157.911
Resistance: 158.174, 158.245
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.06 swing low exposes the 158 pivot, which also marks the 50% retrace of the Asia-London leg
Reclaim of the 158.17 lower high and the pennant top reopens the 158.245 london high
Loss of the 157.91 ny low would retrace beyond 61.8% of the Asia-London leg
Japan Aug Labor Cash Earnings at 23:30 GMT (f/c 3.7%) is the likely catalyst to resolve the pennant
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could shift the 158 pivot read via US yields
20:46 UTC
Sideways, rising lows since NY dip · RSI 49 · price 158.147
Range 157.91–158.245, higher lows inside.
The Asia rally from 157.77 topped at the 158.245 session high in London. NY dipped twice to the 157.91 double low, about 70% of the Asia rally fib, before a higher low at 158.06 formed, and price now coils near 158.15 in late NY with RSI(14) flat at 49. The pair keeps orbiting the 158.00 pivot as softer USD offsets yen underperformance after Ueda.
Support: 158.06, 158.00, 157.91
Resistance: 158.20, 158.245
What it said to watch
Japan Aug Labor Cash Earnings at 23:30 GMT (f/c 3.7%): a hot print risks a break of the 158.00 pivot toward the 157.91 double low.
A close above the 158.20 NY high reopens the 158.245 session high.
Failure to hold the 158.06 higher low breaks the rising lows line and returns focus to the 158.00 pivot.
The Asia rally fib 61.8% near 157.95 overlaps the double low; a close below it shifts the range read lower.
20:31 UTC
Flat, compressing late in NY session · RSI 45 · price 158.136
Lower highs from 158.245, higher lows from 157.91; converging range.
London stalled at 158.245, barely clearing the 157.77–158.24 Asian range. The pair then compressed into late NY between a lower high at 158.20 and a swing low at 158.06, after the 157.91 session low held twice around the NY open. The GPIF report kept the pair back above the 158.00 psych pivot, and price is now sitting on flat EMAs with RSI(14) at 45 and ATR near 4 pips.
Support: 158.06, 158.00, 157.91
Resistance: 158.20, 158.245, 158.45
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.20 lower high breaks the compression and puts the 158.245 london high back in play
Loss of the 158.06 swing low exposes the 158.00 psych pivot, then the 157.91 session low
Japan Aug Labor Cash Earnings at 23:30 GMT: a hot print could push the pair through 158.00, and a soft one could lift it toward the 158.45 range top
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 157.91, capped below 158.20–158.25.
The 157.77–158.25 day range was set across Asia and London. NY dipped twice to a double low at 157.91, and buyers stepped in both times. Higher lows since, with the latest swing low at 158.06, have price compressing under the NY high at 158.20 late in NY hours. RSI(14) is flat near 51 and ATR is about 4 pips, in line with the 158.00 pivot chop the digest describes after the GPIF report.
Support: 158.06, 157.91, 157.77
Resistance: 158.20, 158.245
What it said to watch
Japan Aug Labor Cash Earnings at 23:30 GMT (f/c 3.7%) could break the compression either way
Failure to hold the 158.06 swing low breaks the higher-lows trendline and reopens the 157.91 double low
M15 close above the 158.20 ny high and the 158.245 session high opens the upper end of the 157.55–158.45 band
Loss of 157.91 brings the 157.77 day low and the 61.8% retrace of the asia rally into play
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
20:01 UTC
Sideways, compressing near 158.15 · RSI 55 · price 158.165
London-NY range 157.91–158.25; NY higher lows against lower highs.
USDJPY has held 157.91–158.25 through London and NY. Late in the NY session price sits near 158.16, squeezed between rising support off the 157.91 session low and the 158.06 swing low, and falling resistance from the 158.245 london high through the 158.20 ny high. The GPIF report kept the pair above the 158.00 pivot despite softer Treasury yields, and RSI(14) is neutral at 55.
Support: 158.06, 158.00, 157.91
Resistance: 158.20, 158.245
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.20 ny high and 158.245 london high breaks the compression to the upside
Loss of the 158.06 swing low and rising support puts the 158.00 pivot and 157.91 session low back in play
Japan Aug Labor Cash Earnings at 23:30 GMT (f/c 3.7%) could resolve the falling resistance / rising support squeeze
19:46 UTC
Sideways, rising lows since NY open · RSI 53 · price 158.16
Inside Asian range, tightening under the NY high.
Price is still inside the 157.77–158.24 Asian range. London's push to the 158.245 session high met rejection, and NY tested the 157.91 NY low twice. Since then the line of rising lows has lifted the swing low to 158.06, leaving price coiled under the 158.20 NY high late in NY hours, with RSI(14) near 53 and the round number at 158.00 acting as the day's pivot.
Support: 158.06, 158.00, 157.91
Resistance: 158.20, 158.245
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.20 NY high and 158.245 session high breaks the Asian range top
Close below the 158.06 swing low breaks the rising lows and reopens 158.00 round number, then the 157.91 NY low
Japan Aug Labor Cash Earnings at 23:30 GMT (f/c 3.7%) could break this coil; a hot print pressures 158.00
ATR near 4–5 pips reflects compressed late-NY ranges; expect expansion on the wage release
Day range 157.91–158.245; higher lows within the range in late NY trade.
USDJPY is holding the upper half of the 157.91–158.245 day range late in the NY session. A rising support line of higher lows has held since the 157.91 double low, while supply has capped the 158.20 swing high and the 158.245 session high that was rejected in London. The pair stays pinned near 158.00 as the GPIF report offsets softer US yields.
Support: 158.06, 157.91
Resistance: 158.20, 158.245
What it said to watch
Japan Aug labour cash earnings at 23:30 GMT (f/c 3.7%) could break the range; a hot print puts the 157.91 double low in play
An M15 close below the 158.06 swing low breaks the rising support and the higher-low chain
An M15 close above the 158.20 swing high reopens the 158.245 session high
19:16 UTC
Sideways, range contracting · RSI 55 · price 158.156
Lower highs and higher lows inside the 157.91–158.25 session range.
Late NY session. USDJPY is compressing inside the 157.91–158.25 band, with lower highs off the 158.245 London session high and higher lows from the 157.91 session low. NY dips held the 158 pivot, with the latest 158.06 swing low. GPIF headlines kept the pair above 158.00 despite softer Treasury yields, and RSI(14) is neutral near 55.
Support: 158.06, 158.00, 157.91
Resistance: 158.20, 158.245
What it said to watch
Close above the 158.20 lower high and the 158.245 session high breaks the compression to the upside
Loss of the 158.06 swing low, then the 158 pivot, reopens the 157.91 session low
Japan Aug Labor Cash Earnings at 23:30 GMT (f/c 3.7%) could materially shift this read
19:02 UTC
Range, higher lows into late NY · RSI 54 · price 158.11
Higher-low chain off 157.91 double low, capped under 158.20–158.25.
Late NY, USD/JPY is printing rising lows off the 157.91 NY low, a double low just past the 61.8% of the Asia rally, and is back above the 158.00 psych pivot after the GPIF headlines. Supply is capping at the 158.20 swing high, under the 158.245 day high set in Asia/London. RSI(14) is neutral at 54, price sits flat on the EMAs, and ATR is about 6 pips.
Support: 158.06, 158.00, 157.91
Resistance: 158.20, 158.245
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.245 day high breaks the Asia/London ceiling and opens UOB's 158.45 range top
Loss of the 158.06 swing low and the rising lows line puts the 158.00 psych pivot and 157.91 ny low back in play
Japan Aug wage data at 23:30 GMT (f/c 3.7%) could materially shift this read; a print of 4.2% or more points toward 157.55
FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC are the next USD-side risk to the range
18:46 UTC
Sideways, higher lows since NY open · RSI 54 · price 158.124
Day range 157.91–158.245, holding above 158.00 pivot.
Late NY, USD/JPY is holding above the 158.00 pivot after a NY double bottom at the 157.91 ny low, with higher lows since and the 158.06 swing low defending the rising trendline. The ny high at 158.20 has capped two pushes and the London day high at 158.245 is intact. Price is hugging flat EMAs with RSI(14) near 54 and ATR about 6 pips as the GPIF-driven USD bid offsets softer Treasury yields.
Support: 158.06, 157.91, 157.77
Resistance: 158.20, 158.245
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.06 swing low breaks the rising trendline and higher-low chain, exposing the 157.91 ny low
Close above the 158.245 day high breaks the range top that has held since London
Loss of 157.91 brings the 157.77 asian low into view
Japan Aug Labor Cash Earnings at 23:30 GMT (f/c 3.7%) could materially shift this read
157.91–158.25 day range; rising lows off the NY low, coiling mid-range.
USDJPY is ranging into late NY. The London-session day high at 158.245 capped, and NY printed a lower high at 158.20, while the 157.91 NY low held twice just past the 61.8% of the Asia rally fib. Rising lows since then keep price coiled above the 158.06 swing low and the 158.00 psych pivot, with RSI(14) neutral near 52 and price fractionally under both EMAs.
Support: 158.06, 158.00, 157.91
Resistance: 158.20, 158.245, 158.45
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.06 swing low and the NY rising lows line exposes the 158.00 psych pivot, then the 157.91 NY low
M15 close above the 158.20 lower high reopens the 158.245 day high, with 158.45 band top (UOB range) beyond
Japan Aug labour cash earnings at 23:30 GMT (f/c 3.7%): a hot print puts the 157.91 NY low in play, a soft one the 158.245 day high
FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
18:16 UTC
Flat, range-bound around 158.00 · RSI 48 · price 158.06
NY range 157.91–158.21 inside day range; late-NY lower high at 158.20, fading toward the 158 pivot.
Since the GPIF-driven Asia rally off the 157.77 asian low, the pair has chopped between the 157.91 ny low and the 158.245 day high, crossing the 158 pivot repeatedly. Late NY showed a rejection just under the 158.21 ny high and has slipped to 158.06, near the 50% level of the ny rebound fib.
Support: 158.00, 157.91, 157.77
Resistance: 158.21, 158.245
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158 pivot and the 157.91 ny low opens the path to the 157.77 asian low
Close above the 158.21 ny high and 158.245 day high breaks the range top
Japan Aug Labor Cash Earnings at 23:30 GMT (f/c 3.7%, prev 4.7%) could break the range either way
Hold of the 61.8% of the ny rebound fib near 158.02 keeps the NY higher-low intact
Two-way range 157.91–158.22 inside the 157.77–158.25 day range, centred on 158.00.
USD/JPY has chopped around the 158.00 pivot since the London-NY transition. The NY low near 157.91 held twice, while the NY high near 158.20 and the London high at 158.245 capped rallies. Price is near the 50% retrace of the Asian low to London high move with RSI(14) neutral at 47, consistent with the digest's read of the pair pinned near 158 between hawkish BoJ signals and the wide yield gap.
Support: 158.00, 157.91, 157.77
Resistance: 158.20, 158.245
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.91 NY low breaks the range and exposes the 157.77 Asian low
M15 close above the 158.245 London high invalidates the range read
Sustained hold either side of the 158.00 pivot, crossed both ways for three sessions, signals the next leg
Japan Aug labour cash earnings at 23:30 GMT (f/c 3.7%) could materially shift this read during the Asia session
FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC are the next major USD risk
Higher lows off a 157.91 double bottom, capped under 158.20 lower high.
Range day: Asia lifted off the 157.77 asian low to a 158.245 day high that London capped, then NY's drop held twice at the 157.91 ny low before higher lows rebuilt price back above the 158.00 psych pivot on the GPIF headlines. Late NY is pinned near the 61.8% retrace of that drop, just under the 158.20 lower high, with RSI(14) at 53 and ATR near 6.5 pips.
Support: 158.00, 157.91, 157.77
Resistance: 158.20, 158.245
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.20 lower high opens a retest of the 158.245 day high
Break of the higher-lows line and the 158.00 psych reopens the 157.91 ny low, then the 157.77 asian low
Japan wages 23:30 GMT (f/c 3.7%) could break the 157.91–158.245 range in Asia session
FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC are the next USD risk beyond tonight
17:31 UTC
Sideways, grinding higher off NY lows · RSI 62 · price 158.173
Higher lows since the 157.91 double low, capped below the 158.245 London high.
USD/JPY held a double low at 157.91 through the late-London and early-NY dips. It has printed rising lows back above the 158 pivot after the GPIF report, and price is now pressing toward the 158.245 London high after London close. The window stays a 157.77–158.25 range, with the Asia low the floor and ATR(14) near 6–7 pips.
Support: 157.91, 157.767
Resistance: 158.245, 158.45
What it said to watch
Japan Aug Labor Cash Earnings at 23:30 GMT (f/c 3.7%): a print ≥4.2% risks a break of the double low at 157.91
M15 close above the 158.245 london high opens the 158.45 range top
Loss of the rising lows trendline and a close back under the 158 pivot returns focus to the asia low at 157.767
Higher lows since 13:00 UTC inside 157.91–158.245 day range.
Asia rallied from the 157.77 Asian low to 158.24. London capped the day high at 158.245, and the London-NY transition flush found a double bottom near 157.91. Since then a higher-low trendline has carried price back over the 158 pivot (GPIF headlines per the digest) to 158.17, just under the 158.215 NY high.
Support: 157.912, 157.767
Resistance: 158.215, 158.245
What it said to watch
M15 close above 158.215 NY high and the 158.245 day high breaks the session range
Loss of the higher-low trendline and the 158 pivot reopens the 157.91 double btm
A break below 157.91 exposes the 157.77 asian low
Japan Labor Cash Earnings at 23:30 GMT (~6h) could break the range either way
17:02 UTC
Range-bound, higher lows through NY · RSI 61 · price 158.165
157.91–158.25 range since London; NY higher-low chain off a double low.
Late NY session, after London close: the London high at 158.245 capped the Asian rally, and the drop into the NY open found a double low at 157.91 that held. Since then NY has printed higher lows back above the 158 pivot, the level the pair has crossed both ways for three sessions, with price at 158.165 sitting just under the 158.215 NY high as easing yields offset steady USD demand after the GPIF report.
Support: 157.911, 157.767
Resistance: 158.215, 158.245
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.245 london high breaks the session range and the cap from London
Loss of the higher-lows trendline and the 158 pivot reopens the 157.911 double low
A break under the double low exposes the 157.767 asian low
Japan Aug wages at 23:30 GMT (f/c 3.7%, prev 4.7%) could materially shift this read
16:46 UTC
Sideways, rising lows since NY low · RSI 60 · price 158.149
Inside Asian range 157.77–158.24, higher lows above 157.91 into late NY.
USDJPY has reclaimed the 158.00 round number in late NY, building rising lows off the 157.91 NY low left by the 11:45 UTC flush. The 158.24 range top set in Asia drew rejection twice in London and still caps the pair, with the 158.18 swing high the first layer below it. Easing US yields have been offset by persistent yen underperformance, keeping price inside the Asian range.
Support: 158.00, 157.91, 157.77
Resistance: 158.18, 158.245
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.245 range top breaks the Asian range and the London rejection
Loss of the 158.00 round number puts the rising lows and the 157.91 NY low back in play
A break below the 157.77 Asian low marks a lower-low and a downside range break
Japan Labor Cash Earnings at 23:30 GMT (f/c 3.7%) could materially shift this read, with a hot print pressuring the 158.00 pivot
FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC sit beyond this window but remain the next USD driver
157.91–158.25 range since London, higher lows in NY.
USDJPY has held a 157.91–158.25 band since London. The double low at 157.91 held twice into NY hours, and the GPIF report lifted the pair back over the 158.00 pivot. Rising lows since then have it pressing the 158.18 recent high late in NY, with RSI(14) near 58 and ATR around 8.5 pips.
Support: 158.00, 157.91, 157.77
Resistance: 158.18, 158.245
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.245 session high breaks the range top
Loss of the rising lows line and the 158.00 pivot puts the 157.91 double low back in play
Break of 157.91 exposes the 157.77 asian low
Japan Aug labour cash earnings at 23:30 GMT (f/c 3.7%) could materially shift this read
16:16 UTC
Sideways, higher lows since NY open · RSI 56 · price 158.165
157.91–158.245 range since London, rising lows inside.
USD/JPY is holding the upper half of the Asian range. The London-NY transition dip set a double low at 157.91, and the pair has since climbed back above the 158.00 pivot on a rising-lows trendline, helped by the GPIF headline flow noted in the digest. Late NY price is pressing the 158.215 swing high, with RSI(14) near 56 and the London session high at 158.245 still capping.
Support: 158.08, 158.00, 157.91
Resistance: 158.215, 158.245, 158.45
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.245 session high breaks the intraday range and opens the 158.45 range top
Loss of the rising-lows trendline near 158.08 and the 158.00 pivot returns focus to the 157.91 double low
Japan Aug Labor Cash Earnings at 23:30 GMT (f/c 3.7%) could materially shift this read in Asia
158.00–158.15 micro-range with rising lows, inside a 157.91–158.25 day range.
London was rejected at 158.245, the london high and a marginal tick over the Asian high. Buyers stepped in twice at the 157.91 double low during the London-NY transition, and GPIF headlines kept the pair around the 158 pivot. Since then rising lows have compressed price under a 158.15 range top late in the NY session, with RSI(14) neutral at 53 and ATR near 9 pips.
Support: 158.00, 157.91, 157.767
Resistance: 158.15, 158.245, 158.45
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.15 range top puts the 158.245 london high back in play
A break of the rising lows line near 158.05 plus a close under the 158 pivot reopens the 157.91 double low
Japan wages at 23:30 GMT: a soft print opens the path to the 158.45 band top; a hot one puts the double low and the 157.77 asian low in play
The Asia rally from the 157.77 asian low stalled at the 158.24 day high through London. An early-NY drop to the 157.91 ny low reversed on the GPIF report, lifting the pair back over the 158.00 psych pivot and the 50% retrace of the Asia rally. Price is now compressing between 158.00 and a 158.15 lower high, with RSI(14) flat at 49.
Support: 158.00, 157.91, 157.77
Resistance: 158.15, 158.24
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.00 psych exposes the 157.91 ny low, then the 157.77 asian low
M15 close above the 158.15 lower high breaks the coil and puts the 158.24 day high back in focus
Japan Aug Labor Cash Earnings at 23:30 GMT (f/c 3.7%) could materially shift this read
15:32 UTC
Sideways, compressing around 158.00 · RSI 48 · price 158.091
Lower highs since NY open against rising lows from the 157.91 NY low, a narrowing coil.
Asia rallied off the 157.767 Asian low and London capped at the 158.245 session high. The NY-open drop to the 157.91 NY low was bought back, and since then lower highs (158.215 NY high, 158.152) against rising lows have coiled price around the 158 pivot into the London close. RSI(14) sits near 48 with price pinned between flat EMAs and ATR about 9.5 pips, so no directional impulse is in play.
Support: 157.91, 157.767
Resistance: 158.152, 158.215, 158.245
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.152 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens 158.215–158.245
Failure to hold the 158 pivot and the rising-lows line exposes the 157.91 NY low, then the 157.767 Asian low
Japan Labor Cash Earnings at 23:30 GMT (f/c 3.7%, prev 4.7%) could break the coil in either direction
FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC remain the larger US-side catalyst for the 158 pivot
15:02 UTC
Sideways, momentum flat · RSI 49 · price 158.096
Range inside the Asian range; NY session printing lower highs above a 157.91 floor.
The NY session has rotated around the 158.00 pivot. The 157.91 ny low held twice, near the 61.8% retrace of the Asian rally, while the 158.245 session high from London capped the upside. Lower highs at 158.215 and 158.152 are compressing price around flat EMAs, with RSI at 49 and no setup in play.
Support: 158.00, 157.91, 157.767
Resistance: 158.152, 158.245
What it said to watch
Bowman speaking now (14:45 UTC) could break the compression in either direction
M15 close above the 158.152 lower high turns the focus to the 158.245 session high
Failure to hold the 157.91 ny low exposes the 157.767 asian low
Japan Labor Cash Earnings at 23:30 GMT (f/c 3.7%) is the next yen catalyst for the range
14:47 UTC
Sideways, compressing around 158.00 · RSI 50 · price 158.096
USDJPY rallied off the 157.77 Asian low through Ueda's speech to a 158.245 session high in London. Two drops to the 157.91 twin lows during the London-NY transition were bought back near the 61.8% of the asia-london leg. Early NY is compressing above the 158 pivot under a lower high at 158.15, with RSI(14) flat at 50 and price just under both EMAs.
Support: 157.91, 157.767
Resistance: 158.152, 158.245
What it said to watch
Bowman speech (14:45 UTC, now) could break the compression either way
M15 close above the 158.15 lower high trendline reopens the 158.245 session high
Loss of 157.91 twin lows exposes the 157.77 asian low
Repeated M15 closes below the 158 pivot shift the box toward the twin lows
Japan Labor Cash Earnings at 23:30 GMT (f/c 3.7%) is the next JPY-side risk
14:32 UTC
Sideways, compressing around 158.00 · RSI 49 · price 158.125
Lower highs from 158.215 against rising lows from 157.914, inside 157.91–158.245 day range.
London stalled at the 158.245 day high. The 11:00 UTC flush and NY's 13:00 retest both held the 157.91 double low, and price is now coiling between rising lows and lower highs around the 158 pivot. RSI(14) sits near 49 with price hugging EMA20/50, so there is no directional break in play, and Ueda's comments added no lasting yen lift.
Support: 157.91, 157.767
Resistance: 158.152, 158.245, 158.45
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman at 14:45 UTC (next bar) could break the compression either way
M15 close above the 158.15 swing high breaks the lower highs; the 158.245 day high and then the 158.45 range top come into view
M15 close below the 157.91 double low exits the NY range and exposes the 157.77 asian low
Japan Labor Cash Earnings at 23:30 GMT: a print of 4.2% or more would put the range floor under test
14:02 UTC
Sideways, two-way around 158.00 · RSI 46 · price 158.108
Range 157.91–158.245 since London high, higher low forming in NY.
Mid-NY session, USDJPY is boxed between the 158.245 london high and a 157.91 double low, after the Asia-session climb off the 157.77 asian low as the yen faded the Ueda and GPIF headlines. Both NY dips to 157.91 were rejected near the 61.8% of the asia rally fib, and price now sits on the ema20 just above the 158 pivot, under a 158.13 lower high.
Support: 157.91, 157.77
Resistance: 158.13, 158.245
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.13 lower high reopens the 158.245 london high
Failure to hold the 157.91 double low exposes the 157.77 asian low
Fed's Bowman at 14:45 UTC could push price through the 158 pivot
Japan Labor Cash Earnings at 23:30 GMT (f/c 3.7%) is the next yen catalyst for the range
13:47 UTC
Sideways, NY printing a lower high · RSI 47 · price 158.062
157.91–158.245 range since late Asia, lower high at 158.215 in NY.
The Asian session and London each topped out near the 158.245 range top, and the first NY push stalled lower at the 158.215 NY high before slipping to a 157.91 double low. Price is now back near the 50% retracement of that NY leg at 158.06, just under the ema cluster around 158.10, with the 158.00 pivot crossed both ways as Ueda's hike message offsets firm US yields.
Support: 158.00, 157.91, 157.767
Resistance: 158.10, 158.215, 158.245
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.245 range top breaks the box and the lower-high line
Failure to hold the 157.91 double low exposes the 157.767 asian low
Rejection at the ema cluster near 158.10 keeps price pinned around the 158.00 pivot
Fed's Bowman at 14:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Japan wages at 23:30 GMT are the next yen catalyst
Session high capped at 158.245, lower high at 158.215, base at 157.91.
GPIF headlines and steady USD demand lifted the pair from the 157.767 asian low to a 158.245 session high, but London capped there and early NY stalled at a 158.215 lower high. Price is back under the 158 pivot and sits on the 61.8% of the Asia rally, with the 157.91 session low tested twice during the London-NY transition.
Support: 157.91, 157.767
Resistance: 158.215, 158.245
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.91 session low exposes the 157.767 asian low
Recovery above the 158 pivot and the 158.215 lower high restores the London range
Fed's Bowman at 14:45 UTC could shift this read; Japan wages at 23:30 GMT is the next yen test
157.91–158.245 range, lower high at 158.215 during NY open.
The first hour of NY whipsawed inside the London range around Williams' remarks. Two dips to the 157.91 NY low drew buyers, while the 158.215 lower high sits under the 158.245 London high. Price is back on the 158 pivot, roughly the 50% retrace of the rally from the 157.767 Asian low, with RSI(14) near 41 and ATR around 9 pips.
Support: 157.91, 157.767
Resistance: 158.215, 158.245
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.91 NY low breaks the range and exposes the 157.767 Asian low
Close above the 158.215 lower high and the 158.245 London high invalidates the fading-rally read
Failure to hold the 158 pivot puts the 61.8% retrace near 157.95 in play
Fed's Bowman at 14:45 UTC could extend the NY-session chop
Japan Labor Cash Earnings at 23:30 GMT (f/c 3.7%) is the next yen catalyst after NY close
13:02 UTC
Range-bound after Asia rally, momentum neutral · RSI 46 · price 158.11
London range 158.07–158.245 capped; pre-NY false break below 158.00 reclaimed, lower high at 158.215.
The Asia-session rally off the 157.77 asia low, on GPIF-driven yen softness, stalled at the 158.245 london high and London held a tight range beneath it. A pre-NY flush through 158.00 psych to the 157.91 flush low was reclaimed within two bars, but the rebound faded at the 158.215 ny high. Price sits mid-range at 158.11, RSI(14) ~46.
Support: 158.00, 157.911, 157.767
Resistance: 158.215, 158.245, 158.294
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.215 ny high and 158.245 london high breaks the session range, with the 158.29 prior high next
Loss of 158.00 psych reopens the 157.91 flush low and the 61.8% level of the asia rally fib near 157.95
A close below the 157.77 asia low unwinds the entire Asia rally
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) could materially shift this read; Japan wages at 23:30 GMT follow
12:47 UTC
Range-bound, lower high forming · RSI 45 · price 158.112
158.245 cap vs 157.91 floor, lower high at 158.215.
Supply capped the 158.245 session high three times through late Asia and London. An 11:45 UTC drop to the 157.91 london low reversed sharply back above the 158.00 round number, in line with the digest's chop around that pivot. Into the NY open price sits at 158.11, below EMA20 and a lower high at 158.215, with RSI(14) near 45 and ATR around 8 pips.
Support: 158.00, 157.911, 157.767
Resistance: 158.215, 158.245, 158.295
What it said to watch
Williams 13:05 UTC and Bowman 14:45 UTC remarks in the first hours of NY could shift this read
M15 close above the 158.245 session high breaks the range and exposes the 158.295 prior high
Close back below ~158.06, the 50% of the rebound fib, would fade the 11:45 UTC reversal
Failure to hold the 158.00 round number re-exposes the 157.91 london low, then the 157.77 asian low
Japan August wages at 23:30 GMT (f/c 3.7% YoY) are a scheduled risk to the 158.00 pivot after NY close
12:31 UTC
Intraday range, recovering off a higher low · RSI 53 · price 158.213
London range 158.05–158.245; downside false break reclaimed into NY open.
The late-London flush through the 158.05 london low to the 157.91 dip low was fully reversed into the NY open. That false break held roughly a 70% retrace of the asia-london leg and set a higher low above the 157.77 asia low. Price is back pressing the 158.245 london high, which has capped four tests since late Asia, with firm UST yields keeping USD supported; RSI(14) is near 53 and ATR(14) about 8 pips.
Support: 158.05, 157.91, 157.77
Resistance: 158.245, 158.295
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.245 london high opens the 158.295 prior high
Loss of the 158.05 london low puts the 157.91 dip low back in play; a break of the 157.77 asia low ends the higher low sequence
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) could materially shift this read; Japan wages at 23:30 GMT follow
Double top at session high, back below 158.00 pivot inside Asian range.
London stalled twice at the 158.24 session high, matching the Asian top, and late-London selling has taken price back under the 158.00 pivot. Price now sits on the 61.8% of the Asia-London leg with RSI(14) near 29. The 157.91 swing low and 157.77 Asian low sit below.
Support: 157.91, 157.77
Resistance: 158.00, 158.245
What it said to watch
Hold below the 158.00 pivot keeps the double top read intact; a reclaim reopens the 158.24 session high
M15 close under the 157.91 swing low exposes the 157.77 asian low and the full Asia-London retrace
ADP (12:15 UTC), Fed's Williams (13:05) and Bowman (14:45) around NY open could materially shift this read
London range 158.16–158.245 broken lower; testing higher-low zone above 158.00.
USDJPY recovered from the 157.767 asian low back above the 158.00 pivot on GPIF headlines and a firm USD, but London stalled under the 158.245 range top. The 11:15 UTC bar broke the london floor at 158.16 and the rising line, and price is now testing the 158.025–158.054 swing low near the 38.2% asia-top fib.
Support: 158.025, 158.00, 157.767
Resistance: 158.16, 158.245, 158.295
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.00 pivot breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 157.767 asian low
Reclaim of the 158.16 london floor restores the range read toward the 158.245 range top and 158.295 prior high
Hold of the 158.025 swing low keeps the rising line structure intact as a retest
ADP (12:15 UTC) and Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) in the first hour of NY could materially shift this read
Higher lows into a flat 158.245 cap; London inside a 19-pip band.
USD/JPY climbed from the 157.767 Asian low back above the 158 pivot on firm US yields. London has held a 158.054–158.245 band, printing higher lows along a rising trendline under a flat session high. RSI(14) is near 61 and ATR(14) about 6.5 pips, so the coil is tight heading into NY.
Support: 158.16, 158.054, 158.00
Resistance: 158.245, 158.295
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.245 session high opens Monday's 158.295 prior high
Loss of the 158.16 higher low and the London trendline exposes the 158.054 london low, then the 158 pivot
A move back below 158.00 would retrace more than 50% of the Asia rally fib and undercut the recovery structure
ADP 4-wk avg at 12:15 UTC and Williams at 13:05 UTC fall around the NY open and could break the compression
Japan Labor Cash Earnings at 23:30 GMT (f/c 3.7%) is the next JPY-side risk
10:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling under session high · RSI 55 · price 158.184
Higher lows off Asian low, flat cap at 158.24-158.25.
The rally from the 157.77 Asian low has printed higher lows. A GPIF-related yen wobble and firm US yields lifted the pair back above 158.00 despite Ueda's hawkish tone. Mid-London, price is compressing under the 158.245 session high, with the london low at 158.14 the nearest floor and RSI(14) neutral near 55.
Support: 158.138, 158.054, 157.767
Resistance: 158.245, 158.295
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.245 session high exposes Monday's 158.295 prior high
Loss of the 158.14 london low and the rising support from the Asian low opens the 158.05 swing low, the 38.2% of the rally
Below 158.05, the rally structure weakens back toward the 157.77 asian low
ADP 12:15 UTC and Williams 13:05 UTC could shift USD tone into the NY session
Japan Labor Cash Earnings 23:30 GMT (f/c 3.7%) is the next yen-side risk
10:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, compressing under session high · RSI 56 · price 158.214
Higher lows pressing a flat 158.245 cap.
USDJPY recovered from the 157.77 Asia session low back through the 158.00 psych pivot as firm US yields kept the USD bid, and London has since printed rising lows under a session high at 158.245 that has capped three times. RSI(14) near 56 and ATR around 7 pips describe tight compression just below yesterday's prior high at 158.295.
Support: 158.16, 158.054, 158.00
Resistance: 158.245, 158.295
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.245 session high opens the prior high at 158.295
Break of the rising lows near 158.16 exposes the 158.054 london low, near the 38.2% fib of the Asia-London leg
Loss of 158.00 psych negates the intraday higher-low chain
ADP 12:15 UTC, Williams 13:05 UTC and Bowman 14:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Japan Labor Cash Earnings at 23:30 GMT is the next JPY-side risk
10:16 UTC
Uptrend off Asian low, momentum flattening · RSI 56 · price 158.20
Higher lows since 157.77; London coiling under 158.245 session high.
USDJPY has recovered about 48 pips from the 157.767 Asian low on firm USD and record UST yields. The rally is held by a rising trendline and a 158.054 higher low, while mid-London trade compresses under the 158.245 session high with RSI(14) neutral near 56.
Support: 158.054, 157.913, 157.767
Resistance: 158.245, 158.295
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.245 session high exposes the 158.295 prior high from yesterday's London session
Break of the rising trendline and the 158.054 higher low (near the fib 38.2%) undercuts the HL chain; the 157.913 swing low is next
Loss of the 157.767 Asian low flips structure to lower-lows
ADP 12:15 UTC and Fed's Williams 13:05 UTC early in NY could break the London range
Japan Labor Cash Earnings 23:30 GMT (f/c 3.7%) is the key yen risk for the Asia session
Higher lows off Asian low, flat tops near 158.245.
USDJPY recovered from the 157.77 Asian low back through the 158.00 pivot on GPIF headlines. A higher-low chain at 158.03 and the 158.05 swing low is pressing into flat supply at the 158.245 session high, three taps during London, with RSI(14) neutral near 56 and yesterday's 158.295 prior high just above.
Support: 158.054, 158.00, 157.767
Resistance: 158.245, 158.295
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.245 session high opens the 158.295 prior high
Break of the 158.05 swing low and rising trendline ends the higher-low chain and exposes the 158.00 pivot
Loss of 158.00 brings the 157.77 Asian low back into view
ADP 12:15 UTC and Fed's Williams 13:05 UTC could shift this read into the NY open
Higher lows from the Asian low, flat London highs at 158.24.
USD/JPY held back above the 158.00 pivot on GPIF headlines and firm US yields. It climbed from the 157.77 Asian low through a chain of higher lows, the latest a swing low at 158.05. London has capped twice at the 158.24 session high, and price is compressing beneath yesterday's 158.30 prior high with RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 158.054, 158.00, 157.767
Resistance: 158.245, 158.295
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.245 session high and the 158.295 prior high extends the higher-low chain
Break of the higher-low trendline and the 158.054 swing low puts the 158.00 pivot back in play
Loss of 158.00 reopens the 157.95 61.8% fib and the 157.767 Asian low
ADP 12:15 UTC, Williams 13:05 and Bowman 14:45 UTC could shift the read in NY hours
Japan Labor Cash Earnings at 23:30 GMT is the next yen-specific risk
USDJPY has printed higher lows since the 157.77 Asia-session low, absorbing a dip to 158.03 around Ueda's speech, and is now pressing the 158.24 session high for a third time during London. A rising trendline and the 158.14 higher low sit just below. Yesterday's 158.295 prior high caps above, with RSI(14) near 63 and not stretched.
Support: 158.138, 158.054, 158.00
Resistance: 158.243, 158.295
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.295 prior high extends the higher-high chain toward the 158.70 band top flagged in the digest
Break of the rising trendline and the 158.14 higher low turns the flat-top compression into a rejection at the session high
Loss of the 158.05 swing low exposes the 158 pivot, crossed both ways in each of the last three sessions
US ADP 12:15 UTC and Williams 13:05 UTC fall inside the next few hours; Japan wages 23:30 GMT later today could materially shift this read
09:16 UTC
Recovering from Asian low, momentum flattening · RSI 57 · price 158.163
Higher lows pressing under a flat 158.24 session high.
USDJPY based at the 157.767 Asian low and reclaimed the 158 pivot on GPIF headlines and firm US yields. Price has spent early London in a tight 158.05–158.24 band, with a rising trendline of higher lows under a flat session high and the 38.2% fib holding near 158.06. Yesterday's 158.295 prior high sits just above the band, and ATR is about 9 pips.
Support: 158.054, 158.00, 157.767
Resistance: 158.241, 158.295
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.241 session high puts the 158.295 prior high in play
Break of the 158.054 higher low and trendline reopens the 158 pivot
Loss of 158.00 shifts focus back to the 157.767 Asian low
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) could move USD during NY hours
Japan Labor Cash Earnings at 23:30 GMT is the next yen catalyst
09:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend from Asian low, flattening at highs · RSI 59 · price 158.214
Higher lows compressing under flat session high.
The Asia rally off the 157.77 asian low lifted USDJPY back above the 158 pivot on GPIF headlines and firm US yields, with Ueda's speech failing to dent the move. Mid-London, price is compressing between the 158.05 london low, which sits at the 38.2% retracement of the Asia rally, and the 158.24 session high. Higher lows are pressing that cap, with yesterday's 158.295 prior high the next reference above.
Support: 158.054, 158.00, 157.767
Resistance: 158.241, 158.295
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.24 session high puts the 158.295 prior high in play
Break of the higher-lows trendline and the 158.05 london low exposes the 158 pivot
Loss of the 158 pivot reopens the 157.77 asian low
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) during NY hours could shift this read
08:46 UTC
Higher lows off Asian low, capped below 158.24 · RSI 54 · price 158.177
HL chain 157.77→157.91→158.03→158.05; tight 158.05–158.24 box in early London.
USDJPY has climbed from the 157.77 Asian low back above the 158 pivot on firm US yields and the GPIF headlines, printing a higher low at 158.05 through the Ueda speech and into the London open. Supply has capped the session high at 158.24 three times, still below Monday's prior high at 158.30, with RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 158.05, 158.00, 157.77
Resistance: 158.24, 158.30
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.05 higher low breaks the rising trendline and exposes the 158 pivot and the 50% fib at 158.00
Close above the 158.24 session high opens a test of the 158.30 prior high
Loss of 158 pivot puts the 157.77 Asian low back in view
ADP 12:15 UTC and Fed's Williams 13:05 UTC could shift this read during NY hours; Japan wages at 23:30 GMT are the next yen-side risk
08:31 UTC
Intraday recovery, stalling under session high · RSI 55 · price 158.186
Higher lows (158.03, 158.05) beneath a flat 158.23–158.24 cap; compression.
Asia recovered from the 157.77 asian low as high US yields kept USD firm. London has printed a 158.05 london low above the 158.03 swing low, both holding near the 38.2% of the Asia rally fib, but price has been rejected four times at the 158.23–158.24 session high, which sits below Monday's 158.30 prior high. RSI(14) is neutral near 55 and ATR(14) runs about 9 pips, consistent with compression under the cap.
Support: 158.054, 158.025, 157.767
Resistance: 158.241, 158.295, 158.45
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.24 session high exposes the 158.30 prior high and the 158.45 range top, where intervention rhetoric risk rises
Break of the rising support trendline and the 158.05 london low, then the 158.03 swing low, ends the higher-low sequence; the 50% of the Asia rally fib sits near 158.00
Loss of the 157.77 asian low would fully reverse the Asia recovery
US ADP (12:15 UTC), Fed Williams (13:05) and Bowman (14:45) during NY hours could materially shift this read
Higher lows into flat 158.24 cap; London inside Asian range.
The overnight rally from the 157.77 Asian low has stalled under the 158.24 Asian high, and London open is coiling 158.05–158.24 below yesterday's 158.295 prior high, with record US yields keeping USD underpinned. Higher lows at 157.91 and 158.05 hold the rising trendline, and the 158.05 higher low sits on the 38.2% fib of the Asian leg.
Support: 158.05, 157.91, 157.77
Resistance: 158.24, 158.295
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.24 asian high breaks the session range and puts the 158.295 prior high in play
Loss of the 158.05 higher low and the rising trendline shifts focus to the 157.91 swing low, then the 157.77 asian low
US ADP 12:15 UTC, Fed Williams 13:05 and Bowman 14:45 could reset the NY session range
Pushes through the 158.295 prior high run into MoF jawboning risk flagged in the digest
08:01 UTC
Recovering from Asian low, momentum flat · RSI 51 · price 158.131
Higher lows pressing under Asian high.
London open finds USD/JPY compressing under the 158.24 Asian high after the Asia session recovered from the 157.77 Asian low. Higher lows at 157.91 (swing low) and 158.05 trail beneath. Repeated rejection at 158.21–158.24 keeps yesterday's 158.30 prior high out of reach while US 10y yields near 5.34% keep the pair pinned above the 158.00 pivot.
Support: 158.054, 157.913, 157.767
Resistance: 158.241, 158.295
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.24 Asian high opens a retest of the 158.30 prior high
Break of the 158.05 higher low turns focus to the 157.91 swing low and the Asian rally 61.8% near 157.95
Loss of the 157.77 Asian low would invalidate the higher-lows read
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) could shift this read during NY hours
Japan wages (23:30 GMT) could materially shift the read in Asia
07:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend from Asian low, stalling · RSI 52 · price 158.115
Higher lows since 157.77, capped below 158.24 session high.
Asia session climbed from the 157.77 asian low in a higher-low sequence, with the 158.00 pivot flipped to support as yields keep the rate gap wide. Early London is stalling below the 158.24 session high and short of Monday's 158.30 prior high, with price coiling just above EMA20 and RSI(14) neutral near 52.
Support: 158.08, 158.025, 157.767
Resistance: 158.241, 158.295
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.08 swing low and the 158.03 higher low breaks the Asian rally structure and puts 158.00 back in play
Close above the 158.24 session high opens a retest of the 158.30 prior high
Loss of the 61.8% Asian rally retrace near 157.95 shifts focus back to the 157.77 asian low
ADP 12:15 UTC, then Fed's Williams 13:05 and Bowman 14:45 UTC, could materially shift this read via US yields
07:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, momentum slowing under asian high · RSI 61 · price 158.174
Higher-low chain off 157.77 Asian low, capped 158.24–158.30.
Asia session built a higher-low chain off the 157.77 Asian low on firm US yields. Into London open price is stalling just below the 158.24 Asian high and the 158.30 Monday high, with the 158.02 swing low and rising trendline underneath.
Support: 158.025, 157.767
Resistance: 158.241, 158.295
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.30 monday high breaks the Monday-session cap
Loss of the 158.02 swing low and the rising trendline ends the higher-low chain, exposing the 157.77 asian low
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) on October hike odds could materially shift this read
HL sequence off the Asian low, highs flat at 158.21–158.24.
Early London is trading inside the Asian range (157.77–158.24) after the Asia-session dip to the 157.77 asian low on Uchida's speech was fully retraced. Higher lows are holding along a rising trendline, but three probes at 158.21–158.24 have met rejection below the 158.30 prior high. RSI(14) is near 59 and ATR(14) is about 9 pips.
Support: 158.025, 157.767
Resistance: 158.241, 158.295
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.24 asian high breaks the cap and puts the 158.30 prior high in play
Loss of the 158.03 swing low breaks the rising trendline and the higher-low chain; the 61.8% fib of the Asia rally sits near 157.95
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) during NY hours could shift the read; Japan wages at 23:30 UTC follow
07:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at Asian high · RSI 61 · price 158.166
Higher lows off the 157.767 Asian low; price testing the 158.24 high at London open.
The Asia rally from the 157.767 Asian low built a clean higher-low chain into a 158.241 Asian high. London open is trading just beneath that high and yesterday's 158.295 prior high, with the USD bid tied to the ~5.34% 10y. The rising trendline and the 158.025 swing low sit just above 158.00 psych, with RSI(14) near 61 and nowhere near stretched.
Support: 158.025, 158.00, 157.767
Resistance: 158.241, 158.295
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.295 prior high clears yesterday's range top; repeated rejection under the asian high caps the rally at a lower high
Break of the 158.025 swing low and rising trendline exposes 158.00 psych, then the 157.767 asian low
ADP 12:15 UTC, Fed's Williams 13:05 and Bowman 14:45 UTC could shift this read; Japan wages at 23:30 UTC are the yen-side risk
06:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, higher lows through Asia · RSI 61 · price 158.151
HH/HL chain off 157.77 Asia low; capped at 158.24 session high, below the 158.29 prior high.
Asia session built a higher-low chain off the 157.77 Asia low, taking USD/JPY back above 158.00 to a 158.24 session high, with RSI(14) near 61 and price above both EMAs. The pair is holding just under yesterday's 158.29 prior high into London open, with Ueda's speech (06:35 GMT) the immediate yen driver and a 5.34% US 10y underpinning the dollar side.
Support: 158.03, 157.91, 157.77
Resistance: 158.24, 158.29, 158.45
What it said to watch
Ueda speech underway: a hawkish nod to an October hike would put the higher-low trendline and the 158.03 swing low under test
M15 close above the 158.29 prior high clears yesterday's London-NY top, with the 158.45 intervention zone the next reference
Failure to hold the 157.91 higher low unwinds the Asia structure back toward the 157.77 asia low
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) could shift the USD side of the read during NY hours
06:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, higher lows through Asia · RSI 64 · price 158.224
HH/HL chain off the Asian low, now pressing the Asian range high.
Asia stair-stepped higher off the 157.77 asian low, with higher lows at 157.91 and the 158.03 swing low. The pair is now poking above the Asian range high near 158.21 into the London open, with RSI(14) at 64. Monday's 158.30 prior high is the next cap, and BoJ Ueda's speech is due within minutes.
Support: 158.025, 157.913, 157.767
Resistance: 158.295, 158.45
What it said to watch
BoJ Ueda speech at 06:35 GMT. A nod to an October hike could reverse the Asian-session advance.
M15 close below the 158.03 swing low breaks the rising trendline and the higher-low chain.
Acceptance above the 158.30 prior high brings the 158.45 intervention zone into view.
Loss of the 157.91 higher low and the 157.77 asian low returns price to Monday's lower range.
06:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, higher lows through Asia · RSI 58 · price 158.114
HL chain off the Asian low; price in upper half of the Asian range, below yesterday's high.
Asia printed higher lows off the 157.767 Asian low and topped at the 158.214 Asian high. The 06:00 UTC pullback low at 158.025 retested the 158.05 break area near the 38.2% fib of the Asian leg and held the higher lows trendline. Price sits just under 158.12 ahead of London open, with the prior high at 158.295 overhead and Ueda due at 06:35 UTC.
Support: 158.025, 157.913, 157.767
Resistance: 158.214, 158.295, 158.45
What it said to watch
Ueda speech at 06:35 UTC could materially shift this read. A hawkish October signal puts the 157.913 swing low and 157.767 Asian low in focus.
Failure to hold the 158.025 pullback low breaks the higher lows trendline and the HL chain.
Close above the 158.214 Asian high opens the path to the 158.295 prior high, with the 158.45 intervention zone above.
06:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend from Asia low, pulling back · RSI 55 · price 158.064
Higher lows since 157.77; price testing rising trendline below Asian high.
Asia session lifted USD/JPY from 157.77 in a higher-low sequence to an Asian high at 158.21, short of yesterday's 158.29 prior high. Price is now retesting the rising trendline near 158.06, at the 38.2% fib of the Asia rally, with RSI(14) neutral near 55. The pair stays pinned around 158.00 on the US-Japan yield gap ahead of Ueda's 06:35 GMT speech, ahead of London open.
Support: 158.00, 157.913, 157.767
Resistance: 158.214, 158.295
What it said to watch
Ueda speech at 06:35 GMT, about 35 minutes out, could materially shift this read; the digest flags 157.50 and 158.45 as break levels
M15 close below the rising trendline and the 158.00 round number exposes the 157.91 higher low
M15 close above the 158.21 Asian high opens a test of the 158.29 prior high
Loss of the 157.77 Asian low erases the Asia rally
05:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the Asia low, approaching prior high · RSI 69 · price 158.182
Higher-low chain since 01:30 UTC; 158.00 reclaimed, session high 158.214.
The Asia session has stacked higher lows off the 157.767 asia low, reclaiming the 158.00 round number and printing a session high at 158.214. That leaves price just under yesterday's 158.295 prior high, with RSI(14) near 69 and ATR around 7 pips, as wide US-Japan yield spreads hold the pair up ahead of Ueda.
Support: 158.00, 157.913, 157.767
Resistance: 158.214, 158.295, 158.45
What it said to watch
Ueda speech at 06:35 GMT, inside the next hour, could materially shift this read in either direction.
M15 close above the 158.295 prior high opens the path to 158.45, the zone the digest flags as intervention risk.
Close back below the 158.00 round number and the 157.913 swing low breaks the higher-low chain.
Loss of the 157.767 asia low returns price to yesterday's range lows.
05:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend off Asian low, RSI(14) near 70 · RSI 70 · price 158.182
Higher lows inside the 157.77–158.30 24h range.
The Asia leg has put in higher lows off the 157.77 asian low and reclaimed the 158 pivot, with the 158.21 session high now just below the 158.30 prior high set during London yesterday. Momentum is short-term hot with RSI(14) near 70. Ueda speaks in about an hour, and the broader 157.77–158.30 range is still intact.
Support: 157.913, 157.767
Resistance: 158.214, 158.295
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.30 prior high breaks the 24h range top
Rejection at the 158.21 session high keeps price capped inside the range
Loss of the 157.91 higher low and the Asia trendline breaks the HL chain
Back below the 158 pivot, also the 50% of the Asia leg fib, reverts to NY-session chop
BoJ Ueda speech at 06:35 GMT could materially shift this read
05:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the Asian low, momentum firm · RSI 67 · price 158.152
Higher-low chain since 157.77; back above the 158.00 pivot, testing the Asian high.
Late Asia session has built higher lows off the 157.77 Asian low, reclaimed the 158.00 pivot and set a session high at 158.19. The rising trendline from the Asian low holds and RSI(14) sits near 67, not stretched. Price is capped between the Asian high and yesterday's prior high at 158.30, set during London-NY hours.
Support: 158.00, 157.913, 157.767
Resistance: 158.189, 158.295
What it said to watch
BoJ Ueda speech at 06:35 GMT (~1h20m) could materially shift this read; an October hike signal is the main yen-positive risk
M15 close above the 158.19 Asian high opens the prior high at 158.30
Loss of the 158.00 pivot and the 157.91 swing low (near the 61.8% fib of the Asian leg) breaks the rising trendline and the higher-low chain
A return below 157.91 puts the 157.77 Asian low back in focus; Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) are later in the day
05:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend off Asian low · RSI 68 · price 158.132
Higher highs and higher lows since 157.77, testing the session high.
Late in the Asia session, the pair has built a higher-low chain off the 157.77 Asian low and reclaimed the 158.00 psych 158 pivot. It is holding just under the 158.19 session high, with RSI(14) near 68 and not stretched, as wide yield gaps keep the yen soft ahead of Ueda. Monday's NY prior high at 158.29 is the next overhead reference.
Support: 158.00, 157.913, 157.767
Resistance: 158.189, 158.295
What it said to watch
BoJ Ueda speech at 06:35 GMT, around London open, could materially shift this read
M15 close back below psych 158 at 158.00 weakens the breakout read
Failure to hold the 157.91 higher low breaks the trendline support and the HL chain
Clearance of the 158.19 session high opens the 158.29 prior high
Fed's Williams at 13:05 UTC and Bowman at 14:45 UTC during NY hours could reprice USD
04:46 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows through Asia · RSI 71 · price 158.15
HH/HL off 157.767 Asian low, pressing Asian high below 158.295 prior high.
Asia session reclaimed the 158.00 pivot from a 157.767 Asian low. It printed a higher low at 157.913 and a fresh Asian high at 158.189, with RSI(14) near 71: hot but not stretched. Yesterday's 157.57–158.30 range is still intact, with the prior high at 158.295 overhead and USD support from US 10y yields near 5.34% in the background.
Support: 158.00, 157.913, 157.767
Resistance: 158.189, 158.295
What it said to watch
Ueda speaks at 06:35 GMT (~2h). An October-live signal could materially shift this read and put the 158 pivot back in play.
An M15 close above the 158.295 prior high breaks the day's range top.
Rejection at the 158.189 Asian high keeps price inside the range.
Failure to hold the 157.913 higher low reopens the 157.767 Asian low and the rising higher-low trendline.
04:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend through Asia, testing session high · RSI 67 · price 158.135
Higher lows from 157.77 Asian low, back above the 158.00 pivot.
Late Asia session: price has built higher lows off the 157.77 Asian low and broken the 158.05 swing high to print a session high at 158.14. It is back above the 158 pivot, crossed both ways for three sessions on the US-Japan yield gap, with RSI(14) near 67. The 158.16 NY swing high sits overhead, then the 158.30 prior high set during the London-NY transition, where the fib of that decline tops out.
Support: 158.00, 157.913, 157.767
Resistance: 158.155, 158.295
What it said to watch
BoJ Governor Ueda at 06:35 GMT, about 2h out, could materially shift this read
M15 close back below the 157.91 higher low breaks the Asian rising trendline
M15 close above the 158.30 prior high clears the London-NY transition top
Failure to hold the 158 pivot returns price to the prior range
04:16 UTC
Short-term uptrend off the Asian low · RSI 63 · price 158.053
Higher low at 157.913, pressing the session high above the 158.00 pivot.
Asia session climbed from the 157.767 Asian low, set a higher low at 157.913 and moved above the 158.00 pivot to a 158.075 session high, holding near 158.05. Upside stalls short of yesterday's 158.155 NY swing high, with the 158.295 London high above, while the yield gap keeps the yen heavy ahead of Ueda.
Support: 158.00, 157.913, 157.767
Resistance: 158.075, 158.155, 158.295
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.913 higher low breaks the Asia trendline and puts the 157.767 Asian low back in play
Close above the 158.155 NY swing high opens the 158.295 London high
Ueda speaks at 06:35 GMT and could materially shift this read; the 158.00 pivot has been crossed both ways for three sessions
04:01 UTC
Sideways, pinned around 158.00 · RSI 56 · price 157.974
Asian range 157.77–158.05, higher low at 157.91.
Asia session is ranging 157.77–158.05 around the 158.00 pivot, with the 01:30 UTC asian low at 157.77 followed by a higher low at the 157.91 swing low, near the 50% of the Asian leg. Price is mid-range with RSI(14) neutral near 56 and ATR around 8 pips, ahead of Ueda's 06:35 GMT speech before London open.
Support: 157.91, 157.77, 157.57
Resistance: 158.05, 158.30
What it said to watch
Ueda at 06:35 GMT is the swing factor; an October-live signal could break the asian range lower
Failure to hold the 157.91 swing low exposes the asian low at 157.77, then the prior low at 157.57
M15 close above the 158.05 asian high opens the prior high near 158.30
Fed's Williams and Bowman during NY hours could shift the 158.00 pivot read
03:46 UTC
Mild downtrend, lower highs since NY · RSI 49 · price 157.914
Lower highs and lower lows, price mid Asian range 157.77–158.05.
The Asia session rally off the 157.77 Asian low was rejected at the 158.05 Asian high, between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the NY-to-Asia decline. Price has slipped back under the 158.00 psych pivot, which has been crossed both ways all session. Highs keep stepping lower from the 158.30 day high along a descending trendline; RSI(14) is flat near 49 and ATR(14) is about 8 pips.
Support: 157.77, 157.57
Resistance: 158.00, 158.05, 158.30
What it said to watch
Ueda speaks at 06:35 GMT (~3h). A hawkish October signal could materially shift this read and put the 157.57 day low in play.
An M15 close above the 158.05 Asian high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence and exposes the 158.30 day high.
Failure to hold the 157.77 Asian low confirms a lower low below the Asian range.
03:31 UTC
Intraday recovery off the Asia low, inside a 24h range · RSI 57 · price 158.024
Higher lows through Asia since 157.767; falling trendline from 158.295 broken, price retesting 158.00.
The Asia session has built higher lows off the 157.767 asia low and pushed back through the 158.00 round number. That move clears the falling trendline from yesterday's 158.295 day high and puts price near the 50% retrace of the NY decline. The pair is still inside the 157.567–158.295 range, crossing 158.00 both ways as the yield gap keeps it anchored. ATR(14) is about 8.5 pips.
Support: 158.00, 157.767, 157.567
Resistance: 158.053, 158.155, 158.295
What it said to watch
BoJ Ueda speech at 06:35 GMT, just before London open, could materially shift this read
Holding above the 158.00 round number keeps the trendline break intact; a slip back below returns price to chop
An M15 close above the 158.155 swing high opens the path to the 158.295 day high
Rejection at the 158.053 session high followed by a loss of the 157.767 asia low brings the 157.567 london low back into focus
03:16 UTC
Two-way range, short-term higher highs and higher lows off the Asian low · RSI 59 · price 158.024
HH/HL climb from 157.767 into the Asian high, inside Monday's 157.567–158.295 range.
Late in the Asia session, USDJPY has climbed in higher highs and higher lows off the 157.767 Asian low. It is now retesting the 158.00 psych level just under the 158.053 Asian high, with RSI(14) near 59. The pair has crossed 158.00 both ways for a third session, and Monday's 157.567–158.295 range still contains price. The 10y UST yield gap keeps putting a floor under dips.
Support: 158.00, 157.767, 157.567
Resistance: 158.053, 158.155, 158.295
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.053 Asian high exposes the 158.155 NY high, then the 158.295 prior high
Loss of the 158.00 psych level and the rising line from 157.767 returns price to the middle of the Asian range
A break of the 157.767 Asian low opens the 157.567 prior low
BoJ Governor Ueda speaks at 06:35 GMT (~3h20m away), which could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from 157.767, poking above Asian high inside wider 157.77–158.30 range.
Mid-Asia session, price is edging through the 157.996 Asian high after demand held the 157.767 session low, with a higher-low chain (157.913 swing low) riding the rising trendline support and price near the 50% fib of yesterday's 158.295–157.767 drop. The 158.00 handle has been crossed both ways for three sessions, and the yield gap continues to absorb dips.
Support: 157.996, 157.913, 157.767
Resistance: 158.155, 158.295
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 157.996 asian high returns price to the overnight range
Break of the 157.913 swing low and trendline support stalls the higher-low chain
Loss of 157.767 session low exposes the lower half of yesterday's range
Close above 158.155 ny high opens 158.295 prior high
BoJ Governor Ueda speaks at 06:35 GMT (~3.5h), which could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 157.767 Asian low, pressing 158.00 Asian high inside 157.57–158.30 range.
Monday's dip to the 157.567 prior low on Uchida's remarks round-tripped to a 158.295 prior high in NY. Price then faded below 158.00 into the rollover. The Asian session set a 157.767 low and has since printed higher lows back to the asian high at 157.996, near the 61.8% fib of the drop from the 158.155 swing high.
Support: 157.767, 157.567
Resistance: 157.996, 158.155, 158.295
What it said to watch
A close above the 158.00 asian high opens the 158.155 swing high, then the 158.295 prior high
Rejection at 158.00 and a break of the 157.767 asian low puts the 157.567 prior low back in focus
BoJ Ueda speech at 06:35 GMT could materially shift this read
02:31 UTC
Drifting lower, lower highs since London peak · RSI 51 · price 157.92
Lower highs and lower lows off the 158.30 London high; Asia session ranging 157.77–158.00.
Since Monday's 158.30 London prior high, USDJPY has printed lower highs at the 158.155 swing high and the 158.00 Asian high, all capped by a descending line. Mid-Asia, price is back near 157.92 after bouncing off the 157.77 Asian low, with RSI(14) neutral near 51. The pair is pinned near 158.00 ahead of Ueda's speech, with the yield gap capping yen gains.
Support: 157.767, 157.567
Resistance: 157.996, 158.155, 158.295
What it said to watch
M15 close above the descending line and the 158.00 Asian high puts the 158.155 swing high back in play. The 38.2% fib of the 158.30–157.77 drop sits at 157.97.
Failure to hold the 157.77 Asian low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 157.57 prior low from Monday's London dip.
BoJ Governor Ueda at 06:35 GMT, around London open, could materially shift this read. A move through the 158.30 prior high would bring intervention risk into focus.
02:16 UTC
Sideways, lower highs since late NY · RSI 52 · price 157.929
Asia session range 157.77–158.00 under a descending trendline.
Monday's NY session faded from the 158.30 prior high, and lower highs since the 158.15 NY high form a descending trendline now near 157.95. Mid-Asia, price is pinned inside the 157.77 asian low to 158.00 asian high band, which the JPY digest describes as USD/JPY held near 158.00 ahead of Ueda. RSI(14) is neutral near 52 and ATR is about 8 pips.
Support: 157.767, 157.567
Resistance: 157.996, 158.295
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.00 asian high and the descending trendline opens the 158.15 ny high, then the 158.30 prior high
Failure to hold the 157.77 asian low exposes Monday's 157.57 prior low
BoJ Ueda speech at 06:35 GMT could materially shift this read in either direction
Official intervention commentary above 158.45 per the JPY digest would change the upside read
Early Asia session: price is rotating mid-range inside the 157.77–158.00 Asian range after the late-NY fade from the 158.155 lower high. That fade extended a sequence of lower highs from the 158.295 prior high set in NY hours, with the descending trendline capping each bounce. Monday's London low at 157.567, set on the Uchida dip, is the floor reference, and RSI(14) is flat near 52.
Support: 157.767, 157.567
Resistance: 157.996, 158.155, 158.295
What it said to watch
M15 close above the descending trendline and the 157.996 asian high breaks the lower-high chain, exposing 158.155
Break below the 157.767 asian low extends lower lows toward the 157.567 prior low
Ueda speech at 06:35 GMT could materially shift this read; Oct hike odds sit near 25%
Reclaim of 158.295 prior high puts price back into the 158.45 intervention-risk area
01:46 UTC
Short-term downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 43 · price 157.833
Lower highs and lower lows below 158.00 in Asia session.
Asia session opened with a rejection at the 157.996 asia high, just under the 158.00 pivot. Price has since stepped down to a 157.767 asia low, below the late-NY floor near 157.82. A falling trendline from the 158.155 ny high is capping each bounce, and the 157.567 london low from yesterday's Uchida-driven dip is the next reference below.
Support: 157.767, 157.567
Resistance: 157.996, 158.155, 158.295
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.767 asia low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 157.567 london low
Recovery above the 157.996 asia high and the falling trendline negates the Asia downtrend read
Close above the 158.155 ny high reopens the 158.295 day high
BoJ Gov. Ueda speech at 06:35 GMT (~5h out) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 158.30; pressing Asian session low under Monday NY floor.
Early Asia session has USD/JPY pressing the session low at 157.79. It has slipped under Monday's NY floor near 157.82 and through the 61.8% fib of the London leg from 157.57 to the 158.30 day high. Lower highs from the 158.155 NY high continue to cap rallies, the latest spike to 157.99 rejected at the 158 pivot. RSI(14) is around 40 and ATR is near 7 pips.
Support: 157.786, 157.723, 157.567
Resistance: 157.996, 158.155, 158.295
What it said to watch
Sustained trade below the 157.79 session low exposes the fib 78.6 at 157.72, then the 157.57 Monday low
M15 close above the 158 pivot (157.99–158.00) breaks the lower-highs line and neutralises the intraday downtrend read
Recovery through the 158.155 NY high reopens the 158.30 day high
BoJ Ueda speech at 06:35 GMT (~5h) could materially shift this read; Oct hike odds ~25%
Lower highs capped under 158.00, tight Asian range.
Early Tokyo session has price compressing under the 158 pivot, with lower highs running from the NY-afternoon 158.16 lower high. The Asian range low at 157.79 is the session low and sits just under the 61.8% fib of Monday's 157.57–158.30 rally; RSI(14) is flat near 48.
Support: 157.79, 157.57
Resistance: 158.16, 158.30
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158 pivot and the lower-highs trendline breaks the compression; the 158.16 lower high sits above.
Failure to hold the 157.79 session low exposes the 157.57 monday low.
BoJ Ueda speech at 06:35 GMT could expand the ~8-pip ATR and break the Asian range.
A return to the 158.30 monday high puts price near the 158.45 intervention-risk area flagged in commentary.
Lower highs from the 158.295 NY high, compressing into a 157.82–158.00 Asia range.
Since the 158.295 NY high, USD/JPY has printed lower highs at 158.155 and 157.996. Early Asia was rejected at psych 158, and the 157.82 session low has been tested three times, keeping the pair in a tight 157.82–158.00 range. RSI(14) sits near 43 and ATR is about 6 pips, so ranges are compressed ahead of Ueda, with high US yields offsetting JPY hike speculation.
Support: 157.823, 157.567, 157.436
Resistance: 157.996, 158.155, 158.295
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.82 session low extends the lower-high sequence toward the 157.57 london low
Below 157.57, the 157.44 day low from Monday's Asia session is the next structural floor
Close back above psych 158 and the 158.155 lower high breaks the descending trendline and negates the lower-high read
A run back to the 158.295 ny high puts the 158.45 intervention-risk area in view
BoJ Ueda speech 06:35 GMT (~6h away) could materially shift this read, with only ~25% of an Oct hike priced
Lower highs from 158.295; tight Asian range 157.82–158.00.
Lower highs from Monday's 158.295 day high, then the 158.155 NY high and the 157.996 Asia high, have compressed the pair into a 17-pip Asian range. The 157.823 session low has held twice, near the 61.8% retrace of the rally off the 157.567 London low, which was set during the Uchida-driven dip. RSI(14) is neutral around 46 and ATR is about 6 pips, so this is a quiet pre-Ueda tape.
Support: 157.823, 157.567
Resistance: 157.996, 158.155, 158.295
What it said to watch
BoJ Ueda speech at 06:35 GMT is the main catalyst; hawkish October-hike language could break the Asian range
M15 close below the 157.823 session low exposes the 157.567 London low
Close above the 157.996 Asia high and the lower-highs trendline reopens the 158.155 NY high and the 158.295 day high
The yield-driven USD bid that took the pair from the 157.567 London low to a 158.295 day high in NY has faded. Price has since printed a falling trendline of lower highs (158.155 lower high, then 157.996), and the late-NY low at 157.824 is holding near the 61.8% fib of that rally. Early Asia is compressed just under the 158.00 round number, with RSI(14) neutral near 47 and ATR around 6 pips.
Support: 157.824, 157.567
Resistance: 158.00, 158.155, 158.295
What it said to watch
BoJ Ueda speech at 06:35 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 158.00 round number and the falling trendline reopens the 158.155 lower high, then the 158.295 day high
Failure to hold the 157.824 late-ny low below the 61.8% fib exposes the 157.567 london low
Lower highs since 158.295, late-NY base near 157.82.
Monday's London rally off the 157.567 london low stalled at the 158.295 session high. NY faded it through a lower ny high at 158.155 into a late-ny low at 157.824. Early Asia is nudging back into the 158.00 round number, which lines up with the 38.2% fib of that fade, with ATR compressed near 5 pips.
Support: 157.824, 157.567
Resistance: 158.00, 158.155, 158.295
What it said to watch
A close above the 158.00 round number puts the 158.155 ny high back in play
Failure to hold the 157.824 late-ny low extends the fade toward the 157.567 london low
Ueda speech at 06:35 UTC (~6.5h) could break the session high or low decisively
A move toward the 158.295 session high runs into the zone where yen intervention chatter has been flagged