USD/JPY AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Wednesday, 7 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/JPY 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:46 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since NY open · RSI 40 · price 157.973
Lower highs below 158.40, early-Asia drift above the NY low.
Since the rejection at the 158.40 NY high, USDJPY has printed lower highs. The bounce off the 157.90 NY low stalled at the late NY high near 158.10, roughly the 38.2% fib of the NY sell-off. Early Asia is holding a tight 157.95–158.06 band below both EMAs. The pair remains well off the 158.51 day high after BoJ's Sato pulled it back toward 158.00.
Support: 157.90, 157.85
Resistance: 158.10, 158.40, 158.51
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.10 late ny high breaks the lower-high sequence along the trendline
Failure to hold the 157.90 ny low confirms a lower low and exposes the 157.85 london low
Reclaim of the 158.40 ny high would put the 158.51 day high back in play
Japan Current Account at 23:50 UTC is a near-term catalyst for the Asian range
Fed's Waller (08:30 UTC) and US jobless claims (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read via US yields
23:31 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near 158.00 · RSI 41 · price 158.007
Lower highs from 158.51; tight early-Asia box above the 157.90 NY low.
Lower highs since the 158.51 day high in Asia. The London-open flush to the 157.85 London low followed Sato's comments, and NY rejected 158.40 before sliding to the 157.90 NY low; the bounce stalled at the 158.10 bounce high. Early Asia is compressing in a ~4-pip box above the 157.98 session low, with RSI(14) near 41 and ATR(14) about 3.6 pips.
Support: 157.98, 157.90, 157.85
Resistance: 158.10, 158.40, 158.51
What it said to watch
Break of the 157.98 session low exposes the 157.90 NY low; an M15 close under the 157.85 London low extends the lower-low sequence
M15 close above the 158.10 bounce high breaks the lower-high trendline and opens a move back toward the 158.40 lower high
Japan Current Account at 23:50 UTC is medium impact and unlikely to shift structure on its own
Fed's Waller (08:30 UTC) and Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC) are the next USD catalysts; 158.51 day high is the upper cap
Lower highs from 158.51; early-Asia compression 157.98–158.06.
Highs have stepped lower since the 158.51 day high in Tokyo, and the double top at 158.40 gave way during NY after the London-open drop to the 157.85 london low on Sato's comments. The NY low at 157.90 held, but the bounce stalled at 158.10, the 38.2% fib of the NY decline. Early Asia is compressing just above 158.00 with a 157.98 session low, ATR around 4 pips.
Support: 157.98, 157.90, 157.85
Resistance: 158.10, 158.40, 158.51
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.98 session low exposes the 157.90 ny low and the 157.85 london low
Close above 158.10 (38.2% fib) shifts focus to the 158.40 double top and the 158.51 day high
Japan Current Account at 23:50 UTC is medium impact and likely limited for the range
Thu: Waller 08:30 UTC and Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC could reset the intraday range via US yields
23:01 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near 158.00 · RSI 47 · price 157.998
Lower highs from 158.40 into NY; overnight range 157.98–158.10 above the NY low.
USDJPY carved lower highs from the 158.40 double high through NY as Sato's BoJ comments weighed, bottoming at the 157.90 NY low just above the London low at 157.85. The bounce after the FOMC minutes stalled at the post-fomc hi of 158.10, near the 38.2% fib of the 158.40–157.90 leg. Price is now pinned near 158.00 into the Asia session, with RSI(14) neutral near 47 and ATR around 4 pips.
Support: 157.978, 157.896, 157.85
Resistance: 158.098, 158.397
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.10 post-fomc hi breaks the lower-highs sequence and puts 158.40 back in view
Break of the 157.98 late low, then the 157.90 NY low, exposes the 157.85 London low
Japan Current Account at 23:50 UTC is the first event risk of the Asia session
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC Thursday could shift the yield-driven read
Lower highs from 158.51; holding above the 157.85–157.90 lows.
USD/JPY was rejected at the Asian high of 158.51 (200-day SMA) and has printed lower highs since. London open swept to the 157.85 day low, and NY held the 157.90 low as yields eased after the hawkish FOMC minutes. Price is now coiling around 158.00 in thin early-Asia trade, between the rollover low at 157.98 and the 158.10 bounce high, with the NY decline fib bounce stalling near 38%.
Support: 157.98, 157.90, 157.85
Resistance: 158.10, 158.40, 158.51
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.10 bounce high breaks the lower-highs line and opens the 158.40 prior high
Loss of the 157.90 NY low exposes the 157.85 day low and resumes the lower-low sequence
Japan Current Account at 23:50 UTC is a medium-impact print that could test the rollover low or 158.10 in thin Asia liquidity
A retest of the 158.51 Asian high would put the 200-day SMA cap back in play
Double top at 158.40 broken; lower-high chain, bounce faded at 38.2% fib.
The asia high at 158.51 (200-day area) capped the session. The London open flush to the 157.85 london low was bought, but the recovery stalled twice at 158.40 (double top) and NY hours ground out lower lows to the 157.90 ny low. The post-NY bounce faded at the bounce high near 158.10, the 38.2% retrace of the NY sell-off, and price is drifting at 157.98 in thin rollover trade with RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 157.90, 157.85
Resistance: 158.10, 158.40, 158.51
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.10 bounce high breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 157.90 ny low exposes the 157.85 london low
Double top at 158.40 and the 158.51 asia high cap any recovery
Japan Current Account at 23:50 UTC could jolt thin Asia session liquidity
22:16 UTC
Downtrend since Asia high, momentum flat · RSI 48 · price 158.007
Lower highs from 158.51, floor at 157.85–157.90.
Lower highs since the 158.51 2-week high set in Asia, with the pullback following BoJ member Sato's backing of multi-stage hikes. NY ground down to the 157.90 NY low, just above the 157.85 London low. The bounce was rejected at the 158.10 late-NY high on the descending trendline, and price is now idling near 158.00 in thin early-Asia trade.
Support: 157.90, 157.85
Resistance: 158.10, 158.40, 158.51
What it said to watch
Japan Current Account at 23:50 UTC could jolt thin Asia liquidity
M15 close above 158.10 late-ny high breaks the descending trendline
Loss of the 157.85 london low extends the lower-low sequence
158.40 lower high caps the London-onward range; 158.51 2-week high above
Lower highs from 158.51 inside a 157.85–158.40 range; flat after NY close.
USDJPY was rejected at the 158.51 Asia high, then flushed to the 157.85 London low at London open after BoJ member Sato's hawkish comments. Since then the pair has printed lower highs: supply capped the 158.40 lower high twice, and NY ground down to the 157.90 NY low. The late-NY high at 158.10 stalled near the 38.2% fib of the NY sell-off, and post-close trade is flat around 158.04 with RSI(14) neutral near 46.
Support: 157.896, 157.85
Resistance: 158.098, 158.397, 158.508
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.10 late-NY high breaks the lower-high trendline and the 38.2% fib cap
Failure to hold the 157.90 NY low exposes the 157.85 London low and extends the lower-low sequence
Recapture of the 158.40 lower high reopens the 158.51 Asia high
Japan Current Account at 23:50 UTC, then Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC Thursday, could shift this read
21:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs off the Asian high · RSI 56 · price 158.041
Lower highs (158.51, 158.40, 158.10) above a 157.85–157.90 double floor.
Lower highs have formed since the 158.51 Asian high at the 200-DMA, which faded after BoJ's Sato backed gradual hikes. The london low at 157.85 and the ny low at 157.90 held after the FOMC Minutes as yields faded. The post-NY bounce stalled at the 158.10 late ny high near the 38.2% fib, and price sits at 158.04 in thin rollover trade, with the 158.40 session high above.
Support: 157.90, 157.85
Resistance: 158.10, 158.40, 158.51
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.10 late ny high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 157.90 ny low and 157.85 london low confirms a lower-low
158.40 session high, then the 158.51 asian high / 200-DMA: area to watch for rejection or break
Japan Current Account at 23:50 UTC, then Waller at 08:30 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, could shift this read
21:32 UTC
Lower highs since Asia high, momentum flat · RSI 45 · price 158.03
Range 157.85–158.40 with descending highs; post-NY bounce stalled at 158.10.
USDJPY has printed lower highs since the 158.51 Asia high at the 200-DMA. Twin highs at 158.40 capped London and early NY, and the post-FOMC Minutes dip held the 157.90 NY low, above the 157.85 London low, where the London-open false break was reclaimed. The late-NY bounce stalled at 158.10, the late NY high near the 38.2% fib of the NY sell-off, and price is idling at 158.03 in thin post-NY trade with RSI(14) around 45.
Support: 157.90, 157.85
Resistance: 158.10, 158.40, 158.51
What it said to watch
M15 close above 158.10 late NY high breaks the lower-high trendline and reopens the 158.40 twin highs
Loss of the 157.90 NY low exposes the 157.85 London low; acceptance below it ends the range read
Only a break of the 158.51 Asia high would end the lower-high sequence
Japan Current Account at 23:50 UTC is medium-tier; Waller 08:30 UTC and Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC carry larger risk to this read
21:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, pausing in a tight post-Minutes range · RSI 54 · price 158.032
Lower highs from 158.40 into a 157.90 low; bounce capped at 158.10.
The Asia high at 158.51 (200-DMA) capped the day. London opened with a flush to the 157.85 london low, and a double top at the 158.40 midday highs fed lower highs into the 157.90 ny low ahead of the FOMC Minutes. The post-Minutes bounce stalled at the 158.10 fomc high, near the 38.2% retrace of the selloff, and price is drifting at 158.03 in thin post-NY trade, below both EMAs.
Support: 157.90, 157.85
Resistance: 158.10, 158.40, 158.51
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.10 fomc high (38.2% of the selloff) reopens the 158.40 midday highs
Failure to hold the 157.90 ny low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 157.85 london low
Japan Current Account at 23:50 UTC, then Waller 08:30 UTC and Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC, could shift this read
Lower highs through NY from 158.40; 157.90 low held, short higher-low chain since.
USD/JPY slid from the 158.51 Asian high and flushed to the 157.85 day low at London open after BoJ's Sato backed gradual hikes. NY then printed lower highs from 158.40 into the FOMC Minutes, but sellers could not hold price under the 157.90 NY low. The late-NY bounce is building higher lows at 158.03 and is stalling at the 38.2% retrace of the NY decline near 158.08.
Support: 158.03, 157.90, 157.85
Resistance: 158.18, 158.40, 158.51
What it said to watch
Break below the 158.03 higher low ends the late-NY bounce and puts the 157.90 NY low back in focus
M15 close above the 158.18 swing high (near the 61.8% of the NY decline) breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 158.40 NY high
158.51 Asian high sits at the 200-DMA flagged in the digest; a move there tests the top of the day's range
Loss of the 157.85 day low would extend the downtrend into fresh lows
Japan Current Account at 23:50 UTC is medium-tier; Waller (08:30 UTC) and Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC) Thursday are the next USD catalysts
NY lower highs from 158.40 into a 157.90 low; bounce capped at the 38.2% retrace.
The Asia high at 158.51 gave way to a London open flush to the london low at 157.85. NY then printed a double top at 158.40 and a lower-low chain into the minutes low at 157.90 as the FOMC Minutes landed. The post-Minutes yield reversal lifted price to the 38.2% fib at 158.09, where late-NY bars are compressing with RSI(14) near 56.
Support: 157.90, 157.85
Resistance: 158.09, 158.21, 158.40
What it said to watch
M15 close above 158.09 (38.2% fib) opens the 61.8% fib at 158.21, the former breakdown pivot
Failure to hold the 157.90 minutes low resumes the lower-low chain toward the london low at 157.85
Reclaim of the 158.40 double top invalidates the NY downtrend read
Waller (Thu 08:30 UTC) and Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read; Japan Current Account at 23:50 UTC is lower-tier
Lower highs since the 158.51 day high set in the Asia session, with a double top at 158.40 capping London and early NY before the slide to the 157.90 NY low into the FOMC Minutes. Price has bounced back above the round number at 158.00 as yields reversed and is now testing the 38.2% retrace of the selloff near 158.09. That base sits just above the 157.85 London low.
Support: 158.00, 157.90, 157.85
Resistance: 158.18, 158.40, 158.51
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.18 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence and brings the 158.40 double top and the lower highs trendline near 158.33 into play
Failure to hold the 158.00 round number re-exposes the 157.90 NY low and 157.85 London low
Rejection at the 50% selloff fib near 158.15 keeps the downtrend structure intact
158.51 day high remains the ceiling for the 24h range
Japan Current Account 23:50 UTC, then Waller 08:30 UTC and Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC Thu, could shift this read
Lower highs from 158.40 double top; NY low 157.896 holding above London low 157.85.
USD/JPY saw rejection at the 158.51 asia high near the 200-DMA. A double top at 158.40 then capped London-NY, and the NY session ground out lower highs to a 157.896 session low, still above the 157.85 london low. Late NY, the bounce is stalling near 158.03, around the 23.6% fib of the 158.40–157.90 leg, with RSI(14) neutral at 45.
Support: 157.896, 157.85
Resistance: 158.109, 158.397, 158.508
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.11 lower high (near the 38.2% fib) breaks the NY lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 157.896 session low exposes the 157.85 london low swept in early London
FOMC Minutes reaction and Japan Current Account at 23:50 UTC could materially shift this read in thin late-NY/Asia trade
Lower highs from 158.40 since early NY; NY low holding above London low.
Rejection at the 158.51 Asia high (200-DMA) and a lower high at 158.40 in early NY left a lower-high chain that bottomed at a 157.90 NY low, just above the 157.85 London low set after BoJ's Sato backed gradual hikes. The late-NY bounce to 158.03 sits fractionally under EMA20 with RSI(14) near 44 and below the 38.2% fib of the NY decline.
Support: 157.90, 157.85
Resistance: 158.11, 158.40, 158.51
What it said to watch
FOMC Minutes, flagged as due but not yet in the feed, could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 157.85 London low extends the lower-low sequence
M15 close above the 158.11 minor high (38.2% fib) challenges the downtrend; 158.40 lower high sits above
Japan Current Account at 23:50 UTC is a medium-tier risk into the Asia session
19:01 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through NY session · RSI 35 · price 157.959
Lower-high / lower-low chain from 158.40, pressing session low above London low.
Rejection at the 158.51 Asia high near the 200DMA gave way to a series of lower highs from the 158.40 swing high through NY hours. The FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC produced no bounce, and price is grinding along the 157.90 session low just above the 157.85 London low.
Support: 157.896, 157.85
Resistance: 158.109, 158.176, 158.397
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.85 london low extends the lower-low sequence toward Monday's 157.41
M15 close above the 158.11 lower high breaks the NY descending trendline
Reclaim of the 158.18 lower high and 158.40 swing high would neutralise the intraday downtrend
Japan Current Account 23:50 UTC and Waller 08:30 UTC Thu could shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the 158.40 range top at 13:00 UTC.
USD/JPY has held an orderly lower-high sequence since the second rejection at the 158.40 range top, and late NY trade is pressing the 157.90 session low with RSI(14) near 30. The 18:00 UTC FOMC Minutes drew only a muted push lower, leaving the 157.85 London low, set during the post-Sato drop, as the next reference.
Support: 157.90, 157.85
Resistance: 158.05, 158.40
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.05 lower high breaks the lower-high chain along the descending trendline
Failure to hold the 157.90 session low exposes the 157.85 london low
A return to the 158.40 range top would put the morning rejection zone back in play
Delayed Minutes repricing, Japan current account (23:50 UTC) and Waller (Thu 08:30 UTC) could shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows from the 158.40 NY high; price below the Asian range.
The Asia push to 158.51 faded on BoJ Sato's hawkish remarks, and price has since printed a lower-high, lower-low chain through NY hours. The NY decline runs from the 158.40 NY high to the 157.91 session low, with the 158.00 round number now capping. The 18:00 UTC FOMC Minutes bar drew little range; RSI(14) is near 34 and ATR around 7 pips.
Support: 157.91, 157.85
Resistance: 158.00, 158.11, 158.40
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 158.00 round number and the 158.11 lower high would break the NY lower-highs chain
Loss of the 157.91 session low exposes the 157.85 london low from the early-London flush
A delayed FOMC Minutes reaction into late NY could shift this read; the 18:00 bar was quiet
Recovery into the 50–61.8% zone of the NY decline fib (158.15–158.21) would put the 158.40 ny high back in view
Lower highs below 158.40 double top, pressing NY low.
London open broke below the Asian range (158.24–158.51 asia high) to a 157.85 london low. The rebound stalled at a 158.40 double top, and NY has printed lower highs down to a 157.91 ny low. Price now sits on the descending trendline near the 78.6% fib at 157.97, RSI(14) ~34, and the first reaction to the 18:00 UTC FOMC Minutes is muted so far.
Support: 157.91, 157.85
Resistance: 158.01, 158.40, 158.51
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.85 london low extends the lower-low chain toward Monday's 157.41
Close above the descending trendline and the 158.01 lower high breaks the NY sequence; the 61.8% fib at 158.06 is next
FOMC Minutes follow-through could still shift this read; the 158.40 double top and 158.51 asia high (200-DMA) are the upper reference
18:01 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through NY · RSI 33 · price 157.952
Lower-high/lower-low chain from the 158.40 NY high, pressing the session low.
USD/JPY has printed a steady run of lower highs under a descending trendline through the NY session since the rejection at the 158.40 NY high. It is back below the 158.00 round number and pressing the 157.93 session low, with RSI(14) near 33. The slide from the 158.51 Asia high, the 200-DMA test, followed BoJ board member Sato's remarks backing gradual hikes, with the 157.85 London low the next reference below.
Support: 157.93, 157.85
Resistance: 158.00, 158.11, 158.40
What it said to watch
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
An M15 close back above the 158.11 lower high breaks the descending trendline structure
A retracement beyond the 61.8% of the NY decline (~158.22) would weaken the lower-high read
Failure to hold the 157.85 London low extends the lower-low sequence
Lower-high/lower-low chain from 158.40 double top, pressing 157.93 session low.
Asia session peaked at 158.51 at the 200-DMA. Sato's hawkish-leaning remarks then fed a London-open drop to the 157.85 london low. NY failed twice at the 158.40 double top, and the NY drop since has printed a lower-high chain under a descending trendline to a 157.93 session low, with price now hugging the 158.00 round number from below, RSI(14) near 33.
Support: 157.929, 157.85
Resistance: 158.00, 158.109, 158.397
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.93 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 157.85 london low
Close back above the 158.11 lower high breaks the descending trendline and neutralises the NY downtrend read
Reclaim of the 158.00 round number with a hold would mark the first higher low of the NY drop
FOMC Minutes due shortly could materially shift this read; ATR(14) near 8 pips understates likely event range
Move back through the 158.40 double top reopens the 158.51 Asia high
17:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through NY · RSI 33 · price 157.997
Lower highs and lower lows from 158.40, testing 158.00 above the London low.
After rejection from the 158.51 Asia high at the 200-DMA and a London open spike to 157.85 on Sato's hawkish remarks, USDJPY has stepped lower through NY from the 158.40 ny high, with each lower high sitting on a descending trendline. Price is pressing 158.00 just above the 157.93 session low, RSI(14) near 33 and not yet at an extreme, with FOMC Minutes imminent.
Support: 157.93, 157.85
Resistance: 158.11, 158.40, 158.51
What it said to watch
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; ATR near 9 pips will likely understate the reaction
M15 close above the 158.11 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the NY lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 157.93 session low exposes the 157.85 london low, the day's floor
Asia high at 158.51 (200-DMA) remains the cap; ny high at 158.40 is the first test on any recovery
17:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through NY · RSI 33 · price 157.985
Lower highs and lower lows since 158.40; price back below 158.00 psych.
The Asia session rally faded at 158.51 near the 200-DMA. The London open, after Sato's hawkish-leaning remarks, swept down to the 157.85 london low, and the rebound was capped twice at 158.40. The NY decline since then has printed a chain of lower highs to a fresh 157.94 session low, with price back under 158.00 psych and RSI(14) near 33, soft but not stretched.
Support: 157.944, 157.85
Resistance: 158.00, 158.109, 158.397
What it said to watch
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; 158.40 (capped twice) and the 157.85 london low bracket the likely reaction
An M15 close above the 158.11 swing high breaks the lower-highs trendline and neutralises the NY decline
Failure to hold the 157.94 session low exposes the 157.85 london low from the London-open sweep
Reclaim and hold of 158.00 psych would mark the first higher low since the session high
17:02 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through NY · RSI 34 · price 158.036
Lower highs and lower lows since 158.40, below Asian range.
NY session has stepped lower highs down from the 158.40 NY high to the 158.11 lower high and printed a 157.98 session low, with price pinned at the 158.00 psych level and RSI(14) near 34. The pair has held below the 158.24 Asian low since Sato's hawkish remarks drove the London-open drop to the 157.85 day low.
Support: 157.98, 157.85
Resistance: 158.11, 158.24, 158.40
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.11 lower high breaks the NY lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 157.98 session low exposes the 157.85 day low
Reclaim of the 158.24 Asian low would put price back inside the Asian range
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
16:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through NY · RSI 36 · price 158.079
Lower highs from 158.40 NY high, grinding lower lows to 157.98.
The Asian high at 158.51 capped price at the 200-DMA. The pair then dipped to the 157.85 London low on hawkish BoJ Sato remarks and reclaimed it. The NY high at 158.40 was rejected, and NY hours have printed a lower high at 158.18 and a fresh session low at 157.98 beneath a descending trendline, with RSI(14) near 36.
Support: 157.98, 157.85
Resistance: 158.18, 158.40, 158.51
What it said to watch
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC, about 75 min out, could materially shift this read
An M15 close above the descending trendline and the 158.18 lower high breaks the NY lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 157.98 session low exposes the 157.85 London low
A recovery through the 158.40 NY high reopens the 158.51 Asian high
16:31 UTC
Downtrend through NY session, lower highs intact · RSI 37 · price 158.06
Lower highs and lower lows since the 158.40 double cap; testing 158.00 round number.
Asia high at 158.51 met the 200-DMA. The London open low at 157.85 came as BoJ Sato's remarks pulled the pair back toward 158.00. After the London low, the recovery was rejected twice at the 158.40 double cap, and the NY sell-off since 13:30 UTC has printed steady lower highs into the 157.98 session low, with RSI(14) near 37.
Support: 157.98, 157.85
Resistance: 158.18, 158.40, 158.51
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.98 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 157.85 london low
M15 close above the 158.18 lower high, near the 50% fib of the NY sell-off, breaks the lower-highs trendline
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC (~1.5h) could materially shift this read
A push back through the 158.40 double cap reopens the 158.51 asia high / 200-DMA
16:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 36 · price 158.019
Lower highs from 158.51; NY session pressing 158.00, below Asian range.
Lower highs since the 158.51 Asian high at the 200-DMA. A double top near 158.40 into the London-NY transition gave way to a NY slide back below the 158.24 Asian low, after BoJ Sato's hawkish-leaning remarks drove the London-open flush to 157.85. Price is testing the 158.00 round number below EMA20/EMA50, with RSI(14) at 36 and ATR around 10 pips.
Support: 158.00, 157.85
Resistance: 158.24, 158.40, 158.51
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.00 round number exposes the 157.85 london low
Recovery above the 158.24 asian low (near the 61.8% fib) breaks the lower highs sequence
Rejection at the 158.40 double top keeps the 158.51 asian high capped
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
16:01 UTC
Range-bound, lower highs since Asia · RSI 42 · price 158.105
Twin cap at 158.40, NY lows holding 158.06 near the 61.8% retrace.
The Asia high at 158.51, right at the 200-DMA, faded on Sato's hawkish remarks into a London-open flush to 157.85. The recovery stalled twice at 158.40, a double top, and the NY low at 158.06 is holding at the 61.8% of that London rally fib. Price is drifting at 158.10 after London close, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) neutral at 42.
Support: 158.06, 157.85
Resistance: 158.40, 158.51
What it said to watch
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; ATR near 9.5 pips will likely expand
M15 close below the 158.06 NY low breaks the 61.8% of the London rally fib and exposes the 157.85 London low
Reclaim of the 158.40 double top and the descending line from the Asia high puts 158.51 back in play
USD/JPY faded from the 158.51 Asia high at the 200-DMA. Hawkish BoJ Sato remarks drove a London-open flush to the 157.85 london low, and the recovery from that low formed a double top at 158.40. NY session is printing lower highs into the 158.06 session low, which sits on the 61.8% retracement of that recovery, with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 158.06, 157.85
Resistance: 158.21, 158.40, 158.51
What it said to watch
Break of the 158.06 session low (61.8% recovery fib) exposes the 157.85 london low
M15 close above the 158.21 lower high puts the 158.40 double top back in play
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; a hawkish read puts the 158.51 asia high and 200-DMA back in focus
After the 158.51 Asia high, USD/JPY slid to a 157.85 London low on hawkish BoJ Sato remarks, then recovered and was rejected twice at 158.40, forming a double top. The NY-session slide has held the 158.06 session low, the 61.8% retrace of the London rally. Price sits below the ema20 and EMA50, RSI(14) near 43, ATR about 9.5 pips.
Support: 158.06, 157.85
Resistance: 158.20, 158.40, 158.51
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.06 session low breaks the 61.8% retrace of the London rally and exposes the 157.85 london low
Reclaiming the ema20 near 158.20, then the 158.40 double top, would break the lower-high sequence and bring the 158.51 asia high back into view
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
15:16 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since Asia · RSI 44 · price 158.114
Double top at 158.40, NY low holding 158.06.
After Sato's hawkish-leaning remarks knocked the pair from the 158.51 Asia high to the 157.85 London low, the rebound formed a double top with equal highs at 158.40 in London and early NY. NY selling has stalled at the 158.06 NY low, which sits on the 61.8% fib of that rebound. Price is below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 158.06, 158.00, 157.85
Resistance: 158.40, 158.51
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.06 NY low exposes the 158.00 round number and the 157.85 london low
Close back above 158.40 equal highs breaks the lower-highs trendline and reopens the 158.51 asia high (200-DMA)
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Double top at 158.40 after London-open drop; NY session holding lower highs above 158.07.
BoJ Sato's hawkish remarks knocked the pair from the Asian range under 158.51, the 200-dma high, to a 157.85 day low around London open. The recovery stalled twice at 158.40, forming a double top. Mid-NY session, price is sitting on the 158.07 ny low, which aligns with the 61.8% fib of that recovery.
Support: 158.07, 157.85
Resistance: 158.20, 158.40, 158.51
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.07 ny low and the 61.8% fib near 158.06 exposes the 157.85 day low
Reclaim of the 158.20 minor high breaks the NY lower-high sequence; the 158.40 double top caps above
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC (21:00 broker) could materially shift this read; the 158.51 200-dma high marks the upside extreme
14:46 UTC
Intraday range, drifting lower in NY · RSI 42 · price 158.153
Lower highs at 158.40 after Asia high; NY probing session low.
Asia set the high at 158.51 at the 200-DMA before hawkish BoJ Sato remarks drove a flush to the 157.85 London low around London open, quickly reclaimed. Supply has since capped twice at 158.40, forming a double top. The break of its 158.16 neckline has NY probing the 158.07 NY low, near the 61.8% fib of the London-low rally, with RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 158.07, 158.00, 157.85
Resistance: 158.40, 158.51
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.07 NY low exposes the 158.00 psych and the 157.85 London low
Recovery above the 158.40 double top reopens the 158.51 Asia high
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
14:31 UTC
Intraday lower highs from Asia peak, momentum soft · RSI 41 · price 158.176
Double top at 158.40, neckline 158.16 broken, holding 158.07.
The 158.51 Asia high at the 200-DMA held. Sato's hawkish remarks then drove a London drop to the 157.85 London low, and the rebound stalled twice at the 158.40 London high under the falling trendline. NY has slipped through the 158.16 neckline to a 158.07 NY low near the 61.8% retrace, with price below both EMAs and RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 158.07, 158.00, 157.85
Resistance: 158.40, 158.51
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 158.07 NY low and 158.00 round number exposes the 157.85 London low
M15 close above the 158.40 London high and falling trendline voids the double top read, with the 158.51 Asia high above
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC (~3.5h) could materially shift this read
14:16 UTC
Range, lower highs from Asian peak · RSI 43 · price 158.193
158.07–158.40 range after London-open V from 157.85; lower highs capped at 158.40.
BoJ Sato's hawkish remarks pulled USDJPY off the 158.51 Asian high into a London-open flush to 157.85, which was rejected immediately. The London rebound has stalled into lower highs at the 158.40 double cap, and early NY printed a new session low at 158.07, with RSI(14) near 43 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 158.16, 158.07, 157.85
Resistance: 158.40, 158.51
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 158.07 session low exposes the 157.85 london low
Holding the 158.16 swing low keeps the higher-low sequence from 157.85 intact
An M15 close above the 158.40 double cap breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 158.51 asian high (200-DMA)
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC (~4h) could materially shift this read
14:01 UTC
Intraday downswing from the 158.40 cap · RSI 40 · price 158.138
Lower highs below the Asia high, breaking the 158.16–158.18 prior lows.
Supply capped USD/JPY twice at 158.40 (11:15 and 13:15 UTC), extending a run of lower highs from the 158.51 Asia high at the 200-DMA. Early NY trade has slipped through the 158.16–158.18 prior lows. Price now sits near the midpoint of the London rebound from 157.85, the low hit on BoJ Sato's hawkish-leaning remarks, with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 158.00, 157.85
Resistance: 158.17, 158.40, 158.51
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 158.17 prior lows would negate the break from the 158.40 double top
Failure to hold the 158.00 round number exposes the 157.85 day low
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC (~4h) could materially shift this read; the 158.51 Asia high is the upside marker
13:46 UTC
Intraday range, rising lows since London dip · RSI 48 · price 158.279
Asian low swept at 157.85, higher lows capped near 158.40.
Early London swept the asian low with a drop to the 157.85 london low as Sato's hawkish-leaning remarks lifted JPY, then reversed back inside the Asian range. Price has since printed rising lows at 158.16 and 158.18 under a double intraday cap at 158.40. Early in the NY session price sits just above the asian low at 158.24, with RSI(14) neutral near 48 and price flat on EMA20.
Support: 158.236, 158.16, 157.85
Resistance: 158.40, 158.51
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.40 intraday cap opens the asian high at 158.51, the 200-DMA test
Failure to hold the 158.16 swing low breaks the rising lows line and exposes the 157.85 london low
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
13:31 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since London · RSI 57 · price 158.382
Rising lows from 157.85, capped at 158.40 london high.
Asia peaked at 158.51 (asia high, the 200-DMA). London opened with a drop to the 157.85 london low after BoJ member Sato's hawkish-leaning remarks. Rising lows since, with the 158.16 swing low holding as a ~44% fib retracement of the london rebound, and price is retesting the 158.40 london high in the first hour of NY with RSI(14) near 57.
Support: 158.16, 157.85
Resistance: 158.40, 158.51
What it said to watch
M15 close above 158.40 london high opens the 158.51 asia high and 200-DMA
Failure to hold the 158.16 swing low breaks the rising lows line and exposes 157.85 london low
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
13:16 UTC
Recovering from London low, stalling mid-range · RSI 46 · price 158.265
Tightening between higher lows at 158.17 and lower highs at 158.29, inside the Asian range.
After the Asia session tested the 158.51 Asia high at the 200-DMA, London open broke below the Asian range to a 157.85 London low on Sato's hawkish-leaning remarks, then reclaimed the range in a false break and stalled at the 158.40 swing high. Ahead of the NY open, price is compressing between a higher low near 158.17, which held at the 38.2% fib of the recovery, and a lower high at 158.29. RSI(14) is neutral at 46 and price sits on EMA20.
Support: 158.17, 157.85
Resistance: 158.29, 158.40, 158.51
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 158.29 lower high, then the 158.40 swing high, reopens the 158.51 Asia high and 200-DMA
Failure to hold the 158.17 higher low exposes the 50% fib near 158.12 and the 157.85 London low
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; a divided or patient tone runs counter to the firm USD
13:04 UTC
Sideways, lower high under 158.51 · RSI 43 · price 158.203
Lower high at 158.40 and higher low vs 157.85; compressing 158.16–158.29 below the Asian low.
London open broke below the Asian range on Sato's hawkish remarks and hit 157.85. Price then reclaimed the range, but the rebound stalled at a 158.40 lower high under the 158.51 Asian high, which sits at the 200-DMA. Early NY slipped to the 158.16 NY low. Price now sits just below the 158.24 Asian low and flat EMAs near 158.26, on the 38.2% of the London rebound fib, with RSI(14) at 43.
Support: 158.16, 158.00, 157.85
Resistance: 158.24, 158.40, 158.51
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 158.24 Asian low and EMAs re-opens the 158.40 lower high
Break of the 158.16 NY low exposes the 158.00 round number, then the 157.85 swing low
A close through the lower highs line from 158.51 shifts the read toward a retest of the Asian high (200-DMA)
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT and the 10y auction could materially shift this read
12:46 UTC
Sideways after London dip, momentum neutral · RSI 50 · price 158.232
Lower high at 158.40 vs 158.51 Asia high, higher swing low at 158.16; range contracting.
The 158.51 Asia high at the 200-DMA was rejected. Sato's hawkish-leaning comments then drove a London open drop to the 157.85 London low, and the rebound stalled at the 158.40 London high. Price is consolidating between 158.16 and 158.40 into the NY open. The 158.16 swing low sits just above the 38.2% fib and keeps the rising lows intact.
Support: 158.16, 157.85
Resistance: 158.40, 158.51
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.16 swing low breaks the rising lows and exposes the 157.85 London low
Close above the 158.40 London high puts the 158.51 Asia high / 200-DMA back in play
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT and the 10y note auction could materially shift this read
12:31 UTC
Range, recovery from London flush stalling · RSI 53 · price 158.273
Higher low at 158.16 under a 158.40 cap; back near the Asian range low.
London open broke the Asian range to a 157.85 London low as the yen briefly firmed on BoJ Sato's gradual-hike remarks, then reclaimed it sharply. The rebound has stalled below the 158.40 session high, with a higher low at the 158.16 swing low (between the 38.2–50% of the London leg). Into NY open, price is pinned at the 158.24 Asian low with RSI(14) near 53.
Support: 158.236, 158.158, 157.85
Resistance: 158.396, 158.508
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.16 swing low breaks the higher-low line and exposes the 157.85 London low
Failure to hold the 158.24 Asian low puts price back below the Asian range
Close above the 158.40 session high reopens the 158.51 Asian high (200-DMA tag)
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT and today's 10-year auction could materially shift this read
12:16 UTC
Intraday range, mixed swings after London flush · RSI 54 · price 158.26
Higher lows from 157.85 against a lower high at 158.40, coiling under the Asia high.
The London open sell-off, following BoJ member Sato's gradual-hike comments, swept Tuesday's NY low near 157.91 to a london low of 157.85, then reversed. The London rebound was capped at a lower high of 158.40, below the 158.51 asia high (200-DMA tag). The 11:45 UTC dip to the 158.16 swing low held between the 38.2% and 50% retracement, leaving higher lows in place, with price at 158.26 just below EMA20 ahead of the NY open.
Support: 158.16, 158.00, 157.85
Resistance: 158.40, 158.51
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.40 lower high reopens the 158.51 asia high and the 158.70 resistance cited in the macro digest
Failure to hold the 158.16 swing low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 158.00 round number, then the 157.85 london low
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT and today's 10-year auction could materially shift this read
12:01 UTC
Range, rebound stalling · RSI 51 · price 158.216
Lower high at 158.40 under Asian high; mid-range.
After the Asian high at 158.51 (200-DMA) faded, London's false break below the 158.00 round number to 157.85 reversed as the yen slipped on Sato's gradual-hike remarks. The rebound stalled at a 158.40 lower high, and the latest pullback low at 158.16 sits on the 38.2% retracement of the London rebound, with RSI flat near 51.
Support: 158.16, 158.00, 157.85
Resistance: 158.40, 158.51
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.16 pullback low exposes the 158.00 round number and the 157.85 london low
Close above the 158.40 lower high reopens the 158.51 asian high / 200-DMA
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT and today's 10y auction could break the 157.85–158.51 range
11:47 UTC
Recovered from London-open flush, now flat · RSI 52 · price 158.328
V-reversal from 157.85, compressing 158.27–158.40 inside the Asian range.
London open broke the Asian low at 158.236 and ran to a london low of 157.85, in line with the digest's slip after BoJ's Sato backed gradual hikes. Price reclaimed the level within one bar. The recovery has since stalled in a 158.27–158.40 band, with the session high at 158.396 capping the recovery and the swing low at 158.273 holding underneath. RSI(14) is neutral near 52.
Support: 158.273, 158.236, 157.85
Resistance: 158.396, 158.508
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.396 session high opens a retest of the 158.508 asian high, which is also the 200-DMA area
Failure to hold the 158.273 swing low and the 158.236 asian low puts the recovery fib's lower half back in play
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT, about 6h out, could materially shift this read
11:32 UTC
Recovering from London dip, momentum steady · RSI 56 · price 158.357
Higher-low chain from 157.85 back inside Asian range.
Asia tagged the 158.51 asian high (200-DMA) before ranging. Early London broke the 158.24 asian low and spiked to a 157.85 london low as BoJ's Sato backed gradual hikes, then the move failed and reversed into a higher-low chain. Price is back inside the Asian range near 158.36, capped so far by the 158.40 session high, with a 158.27 higher low just below.
Support: 158.27, 158.236, 157.85
Resistance: 158.396, 158.508
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.40 session high opens a retest of the 158.51 asian high / 200-DMA
Loss of the 158.27 higher low breaks the recovery chain and puts the 158.24 asian low back in play
Return below 158.00 toward the 157.85 london low would negate the false-break read
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
V-shaped rebound off the London low, back inside the Asian range.
London open flushed through the 158.24 Asian low to 157.85 after BoJ's Sato backed gradual hikes. That dip was reclaimed within one bar, and a higher-low chain has since lifted price to 158.36, about 78% back up the Asian high-London low fib. RSI(14) near 64; the 158.39 London high sits just above, with the 158.51 Asian high (200-DMA) beyond.
Support: 158.27, 158.24, 157.85
Resistance: 158.39, 158.51, 158.70
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.39 London high puts the 158.51 Asian high / 200-DMA back in play, then the 158.70 range top
Loss of the 158.27 higher low and the trendline breaks the recovery sequence; back below the 158.24 Asian low reopens the 157.85 London low
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT (~6.5h) could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 157.85 sweep low, back inside Asian range.
Asia held a 158.24–158.51 range, with the Asian high capping at the 200-DMA. Early London ran a sweep below the Asian low and prior-day lows to 157.85 as Sato's comments lifted the yen. The rebound reclaimed 158.00 psych and is now stalling just under the 158.35 London high, mid-session ahead of NY.
Support: 158.24, 158.00, 157.85
Resistance: 158.35, 158.51
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.35 London high reopens the 158.51 Asian high / 200-DMA
Failure to hold the 158.24 Asian low exposes 158.00 psych and the 157.85 sweep low
A move below the 157.85 sweep low turns the false break into a lower low
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT plus the 10y auction could materially shift this read
Japan Current Account at 23:50 UTC adds late-session event risk
Higher-low chain after London-open sweep; back inside Asian range.
London open broke the 158.236 Asian low on Sato's gradual-tightening comments and swept yesterday's 157.91 lows to a 157.85 sweep low before a sharp reversal. Price has since built a higher-low chain back into the Asian range and is stalling under the 158.346 rebound high, with EMA20/50 converging near 158.28.
Support: 158.273, 158.236, 157.85
Resistance: 158.346, 158.394, 158.508
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.346 rebound high clears the 78.6% retracement of the Asian high–sweep low drop (158.37) and exposes the 158.394 London high, then the 158.508 Asian high at the 200-DMA
Loss of the 158.273 higher low and EMA20 breaks the recovery sequence; back below the 158.236 Asian low reopens the 157.85 sweep low
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT and the 10y auction could materially shift this read
False break below Asian range, price back inside 158.24–158.51.
Asia set a two-week high at 158.51 before Sato's hawkish-leaning BoJ remarks drove a London-open break of the Asian low to 157.85. The drop has been fully reversed back inside the Asian range. Mid-London, price is stalling just under the 158.35 recovery high, above the 61.8% retrace of the Asia high–London low fib. RSI(14) is neutral near 47 and price sits only marginally above the EMA50.
Support: 158.27, 158.24, 157.85
Resistance: 158.35, 158.51
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.35 recovery high opens the path back to the 158.51 Asia high
Failure to hold the 158.27 pullback low and the 158.24 Asian low puts the 61.8% retrace and the 157.85 London low back in focus
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT and the US 10y auction could materially shift this read
V-recovery after false break of prior-day low; higher lows since 157.85.
Around London open price broke below the 158.24 Asian low and the 157.91 prior low, then hit 157.85 on Sato's hawkish remarks. That move was rejected sharply, and higher lows since have retraced about 61.8% of the 158.51–157.85 drop. Price is now stalling just under the 158.35 session high, RSI(14) neutral near 51.
Support: 158.213, 157.911, 157.85
Resistance: 158.346, 158.508, 158.70
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.35 session high exposes the 158.51 asian high
Failure to hold the 158.21 higher low breaks the recovery trendline and reopens the 157.91 prior low
A move back through the 157.85 london low turns the false break into a lower low
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT and the US 10y auction could materially shift this read; 158.70 range top sits above
10:01 UTC
V-shaped recovery inside Asian range · RSI 55 · price 158.337
London-open flush swept prior lows and reversed; higher lows off 157.85.
Around London open the pair flushed from 158.30 to a 157.85 sweep low, briefly undercutting yesterday's 157.91 lows on Sato's hawkish-leaning BoJ remarks, then reclaimed the 158.00 round number and the 158.24 Asian low along a rising recovery line. Price now sits about 74% back into the 158.51 session high to 157.85 selloff fib, with the 158.46 range top capping the Asian session.
Support: 158.24, 158.00, 157.85
Resistance: 158.46, 158.51, 158.70
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.46 range top reopens the 158.51 session high and 158.70 major resistance
A break of the recovery line and the 158.24 Asian low puts the 158.00 round number and 157.85 sweep low back in play
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower; false break below prior low, V-shaped recovery into 61.8% fib.
Sato's support for gradual BoJ hikes drove a London-open slide from the 158.33 breakdown area. The drop swept Tuesday's 157.91 prior low to a 157.85 session low and was rejected sharply. The rebound has stalled at the 61.8% fib of the 158.51 Asian high to 157.85 move, with price pinned at EMA20 and RSI(14) neutral near 47.
Support: 158.05, 157.91, 157.85
Resistance: 158.26, 158.33, 158.51
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.33 breakdown area reopens the 158.51 Asian high
Loss of the 158.05 higher low puts the 157.91 prior low and 157.85 session low back in play
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT (21:00 broker) could materially shift this read
09:31 UTC
Down from asian high, sharp v-recovery · RSI 47 · price 158.24
London-open sell-off swept the prior low, now retesting the Asian range low from below.
London open broke the Asian range lower as Sato's hawkish BoJ remarks hit, sweeping the prior low at 157.91 to a london low of 157.85 before a V-shaped recovery. Price is now retesting the asian low at 158.24, also the 61.8% fib of the drop, with RSI(14) back near 47.
Support: 158.05, 157.91, 157.85
Resistance: 158.24, 158.39, 158.51
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 158.24 asian low reclaims the range and puts the 158.39 london high in play, with the 158.51 asian high above
Rejection at 158.24 and a break of the 158.05 pullback low and the recovery line reopens the 157.91 prior low and the 157.85 london low
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT, plus the US 10-year auction, could materially shift this read
09:16 UTC
Rebounding after London selloff, below both EMAs · RSI 43 · price 158.179
Asian range broken lower, sweep of prior low reclaimed, lower highs from 158.51.
Early in the London session the pair broke the 158.24 Asian low and dropped about 65 pips from the 158.51 Asian high. The digest ties that pullback to BoJ's Sato flagging oil-driven price risk. The move swept the 157.91 prior low to a 157.85 session low and was rejected, and the rebound now sits at the 50% retrace (158.18), still under both EMAs.
Support: 158.10, 157.91, 157.85
Resistance: 158.24, 158.39, 158.51
What it said to watch
A close back above the asian low at 158.24 (61.8% retrace 158.26) puts price back inside the Asian range
Rejection at the 50% retrace exposes the 38.2% fib at 158.10, then the prior low at 157.91 and the 157.85 session low
Lower highs trendline from the 158.51 asian high caps the 158.39 area; a break above it negates the lower-high sequence
FOMC Minutes (18:00 GMT) and the US 10y auction later today could materially shift this read
Lower highs off Asian high; sweep of prior-day low rejected.
Early London broke through the Asian low at 158.30 and yesterday's prior low at 157.91, sweeping to a 157.85 session low before a sharp rejection back to 158.18, the 50% retrace of the Asian high to London low drop. Price sits under EMA20 and the 61.8% fib near 158.26, with RSI(14) neutral around 42.
Support: 158.10, 157.91, 157.85
Resistance: 158.26, 158.30, 158.39
What it said to watch
A close back above the 158.30 Asian low would turn the London drop into a false break, with the 158.39 London high above
Loss of the 38.2% fib at 158.10 exposes the 157.91 prior low and the 157.85 session low
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT and the US 10y auction could materially shift this read
08:46 UTC
Asian highs faded, London flush then rebound · RSI 38 · price 158.115
Asian range broken lower at London open; sweep below prior-day low reclaimed.
Early London saw a 45-pip drop from the 158.30 breakdown point to 157.85. That move swept the 157.91 prior low from yesterday's London session before a sharp reclaim to 158.11, the 38.2% fib of the drop from the 158.51 Asian high. Price sits below the 158.24 Asian low and both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 38 after the rebound.
Support: 157.91, 157.85
Resistance: 158.24, 158.30, 158.51
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 158.24 asian low would put price back inside the Asian range, with the 158.30 breakdown point and 158.51 asian high above
Failure to hold the 157.91 prior low and a break of the 157.85 sweep low would turn the reclaim into a lower-low
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT and the US 10y auction could materially shift this read
08:31 UTC
Intraday down-leg from London open, sharp bounce off lows · RSI 36 · price 158.095
Asian range broken lower; prior-day lows swept and reclaimed.
London open broke the Asian low at 158.24 and swept beneath yesterday's 157.91 prior low to a 157.85 sweep low. Price then snapped back to 158.10, near the 38.2% fib of the drop from the Asian high. Price is below both EMAs, RSI(14) is near 36 and the break below 157.91 has not held.
Support: 157.91, 157.85
Resistance: 158.24, 158.51
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 158.24 Asian low, near the 61.8% fib, returns price inside the Asian range with 158.51 Asian high above
Failure to hold the 157.91 prior low reopens the 157.85 sweep low and turns the false break into a lower-low
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT and the US 10y auction could materially shift this read
London open broke the 158.24 Asian low and then yesterday's 157.91 prior low. That ran price to a 157.85 session low and RSI(14) into the low 20s, against the digest's firm-USD tone, with no release in the window. Lower highs from the 158.51 Asian high capped the morning before the 07:45 break bar.
Support: 157.85
Resistance: 157.91, 158.04, 158.24
What it said to watch
Reclaim and hold above the 157.91 prior low would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 157.85 session low extends the lower-low sequence
158.04 break bar and 158.24 Asian low are the first areas to watch for rejection on any rebound
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT and the US 10y auction could materially shift this read
08:01 UTC
Downtrend from the Asian high, momentum stretched · RSI 27 · price 158.099
Lower highs since 158.508, Asian range broken lower at London open.
The Asian session topped at the 158.508 asian high and printed lower highs. The London open bar then broke the asian low at 158.236 and dropped to a 158.037 london low, a 47-pip leg that has stalled just above the 158.00 round number with RSI(14) at 27. The drop cuts against the firm-USD digest, and Tuesday's 157.91 prior low is the next reference below.
Support: 158.037, 158.00, 157.911
Resistance: 158.236, 158.508
What it said to watch
A close back above the 158.236 asian low negates the range break; the 50% fib of the asian high drop sits just above at 158.27
Failure to hold the 158.037 london low exposes the 158.00 round number and the 157.91 prior low
A break of the lower highs trendline near 158.40 would end the downtrend read
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT and today's US 10y auction could materially shift this read
07:47 UTC
Pullback within Asia rally, momentum soft · RSI 41 · price 158.325
Lower highs from 158.508 Asian high; Asian low swept and reclaimed, coiling 158.27–158.40.
The Asia rally to 158.508 came on firmer USD and yields, then stalled. Early London swept the 158.30 Asian low to a 158.236 session low, the 61.8% of the Asia rally fib, and reclaimed it. Price now coils between 158.27 and the 158.40 lower high, with RSI(14) near 41 and ATR(14) about 6 pips.
Support: 158.30, 158.236, 158.20
Resistance: 158.40, 158.508, 158.70
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.40 lower high reopens the 158.508 Asian high and the 158.70 UOB range top
Close below the 158.236 session low breaks the 61.8% of the Asia rally fib and exposes the 158.20 NY range top
Failure to hold the 158.30 Asian low after the reclaim turns the sweep into a lower-low sequence
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT and the 10-year auction could materially shift this read
07:31 UTC
Pullback inside Asian range after overnight leg up · RSI 39 · price 158.315
Asian range 158.30–158.51, pre-London false break of the low, recovered.
Firmer USD and Ueda's no-October-signal speech lifted USD/JPY at the Tokyo open, from the 158.08 rally origin to an Asian high at 158.508. A pre-London false break of the 158.30 Asian low found demand at 158.236, close to the 61.8% retracement of the Asia rally. Early London is capped at 158.394, RSI(14) is near 39 and price is back below EMA20, sitting on the Asian low.
Support: 158.30, 158.236, 158.076
Resistance: 158.394, 158.465, 158.508
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.236 london low turns the false break into a range break and exposes the 158.076 rally origin
Close above the 158.394 london high puts the 158.465 asian ceiling and 158.508 asian high back in play
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT, plus the 10-year auction, could materially shift this read later in NY hours
Asian range 158.30–158.51; early-Europe false break below the low was reclaimed.
Firm USD and yields lifted the pair from 158.08 to an Asian high of 158.51. The early-Europe dip broke the Asian low at 158.30 to an early low of 158.24, about 62% of the Asia rally fib, and was reclaimed into London open. Price sits mid-range at 158.39 with RSI(14) neutral and a lower high at 158.46 capping.
Support: 158.30, 158.236
Resistance: 158.465, 158.508, 158.70
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 158.24 early low invalidates the reclaim and exposes 158.00
A break of the 158.46 lower high and the 158.51 Asian high puts the 158.70 UOB top in view, with intervention talk rising toward 160
Failure to hold the 158.30 Asian low keeps the range-break attempt live
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT and the 10-year auction could materially shift this read
Asia breakout above prior-day high, lower highs since, retest in progress at London open.
Asia broke above yesterday's 158.24 prior high on the firmer USD to a 158.51 asia high, then capped price with lower highs under 158.46. The London open dip held at 158.24, where the prior high lines up with the 61.8% fib of the Asia leg. RSI(14) sits near 42 and price is just under EMA20.
Support: 158.24, 157.91
Resistance: 158.46, 158.51
What it said to watch
M15 close below 158.24 (prior high / 61.8% fib) turns the Asia breakout into a false break and exposes the 157.91 prior low
M15 close above the 158.46 lower highs trendline reopens the 158.51 asia high
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
06:47 UTC
Pullback after Asia rally, momentum fading · RSI 39 · price 158.277
Lower highs from 158.51; asia low 158.30 broken, testing 61.8% fib.
The firmer-USD Asia rally off the 158.08 swing low stalled at the 158.51 session high near the 158.45–158.70 range top. Lower highs since then and a break of the 158.30 asia low ahead of the London open have put price on the 61.8% fib at 158.24, where the rising trendline from yesterday's lows also sits; RSI(14) is near 39 and ATR around 6 pips.
Support: 158.24, 158.08, 157.91
Resistance: 158.30, 158.40, 158.51
What it said to watch
M15 close below 158.24 (61.8% fib / rising trendline) exposes the 158.08 swing low, then the 157.91 prior low
Reclaim of the 158.30 asia low and the 158.40 lower high puts the 158.51 session high back in play
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read; London open is the next bar
Asia breakout above prior high, now ranging 158.28–158.47 below the 158.51 Asia high.
Asia session lifted USDJPY out of the overnight 158.10–158.18 band and through the prior high at 158.245 to a 158.51 Asia high, as USD firmed and BoJ October hike odds faded. Price has since held a 158.28–158.47 consolidation. The latest dip to the 158.28 pullback low, near 50% of the Asia leg fib, briefly broke the 158.30 floor and was absorbed back inside the band ahead of the London open.
Support: 158.28, 158.245
Resistance: 158.47, 158.51, 158.70
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.28 pullback low confirms the false break failed and exposes the prior high at 158.245
Close above the 158.47 range top and the 158.51 Asia high opens the 158.70 UOB top flagged in the digest
London open within the hour is the first test of the 158.28–158.51 band
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT later today could materially shift this read
06:01 UTC
Uptrend paused, Asia consolidation · RSI 41 · price 158.351
Asia breakout above prior high, now ranging 158.30–158.51.
The Asia session cleared yesterday's 158.245 prior high and ran to a 158.508 session high as USD firmed and BoJ October hike odds faded. Since then price has been held between the 158.30 asian low and a 158.46 range cap. It now sits on the 38.2% fib near 158.34 ahead of London open, with RSI(14) cooled to around 41.
Support: 158.30, 158.245
Resistance: 158.46, 158.508, 158.70
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 158.30 asian low exposes the 158.245 prior high and the 61.8% fib near 158.24
A close above the 158.46 range cap and the 158.508 session high opens the 158.70 uob top
London open within the hour is likely to set direction out of the Asian range
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
Lower highs under 158.51 Asian high, holding above the 50% retracement.
USD/JPY broke above Tuesday's 158.05–158.25 range into the Tokyo open as the yen softened on fading BoJ October hike bets, topping at the 158.51 Asian high before pulling back to 158.30, the Asian low near the 50% fib of the breakout. Late in the Asia session price is coiling under a line of lower highs near 158.46 and testing the 158.35 swing low, with RSI(14) flat at 46 and ATR around 5 pips.
Support: 158.35, 158.30, 158.24
Resistance: 158.46, 158.51, 158.70
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.30 Asian low and 50% fib exposes the 158.24 prior high at the 61.8% retracement
Break of the lower highs line and the 158.51 Asian high reopens the 158.70 range top
London open in about an hour typically expands the tight Asian range
FOMC Minutes (18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Asia breakout above prior-day range, now consolidating 158.35–158.46.
Asia session broke above yesterday's 157.91–158.25 range at the Tokyo open, setting a session high at 158.508 as BoJ October hike bets faded and the dollar firmed on yields. The pullback held 158.30 at the 50% fib of the Asia leg. Late Asia is now compressing between the 158.35 range low and 158.465 range top, about 2h before London open.
Support: 158.35, 158.30, 158.245
Resistance: 158.465, 158.508, 158.70
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.508 session high opens the 158.70 uob range top
Loss of the 158.30 50% fib exposes the 158.245 prior high as a retest of the broken range
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
London open breaking the 158.35–158.465 range sets the next intraday direction
Asia breakout above prior high, then higher lows under a flat range top.
The Asia session cleared the prior high at 158.245 as US yields firmed, running to a 158.508 session high before the pullback held at the 50% fib near 158.30. Since then price has compressed into higher lows beneath a 158.465 range top, with RSI(14) neutral near 59.
Support: 158.35, 158.30, 158.245
Resistance: 158.465, 158.508
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.508 session high extends the Asia breakout toward the 158.70 range-top area
Close below the 158.35 range low and the rising trendline puts the 50% fib at 158.30 back in play
Loss of the 158.245 prior high would undo the breakout
London open in ~2h is likely to test the compression range
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia breakout above prior high, tight consolidation with higher lows.
Asia session broke above yesterday's 158.245 prior high on firmer US yields, printing a 158.508 session high before the pullback held 158.30, near the 50% fib of the Asia rally. Since then the pair has held a tight 158.35–158.47 consolidation, capped by a lower high at 158.465, with RSI(14) near 56 and ATR around 6 pips.
Support: 158.348, 158.299, 158.245
Resistance: 158.465, 158.508
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.508 session high extends the Asia breakout toward the 158.70 range top
Loss of the 158.35 swing low and 158.30 pullback low breaks the rising trendline and puts the 158.245 prior high retest in play
London open in ~2h is the first test of the Asian range edges
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia breakout above prior high, now coiling below session high.
The Asia session broke above yesterday's 158.245 prior high and ran to a 158.508 session high as BoJ hike bets faded and yields firmed. The pullback held the 50% fib at 158.299, and price is now coiling between the 158.348 swing low and a 158.465 lower high, with RSI(14) back near neutral.
Support: 158.348, 158.299, 158.245
Resistance: 158.465, 158.508, 158.70
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.508 session high reopens the 158.70 range top cited by UOB
Loss of the 158.348 swing low and the 158.299 50% fib puts the 158.245 prior high retest in play
London open could break the 158.35–158.47 coil
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia breakout above prior high, consolidating 158.30–158.51.
The Asia session broke above Tuesday's 158.245 prior high after a quiet rollover and ran to a 158.508 session high, with BoJ hike bets fading and US yields firming. Price has since held a tight 158.30–158.51 consolidation, with the pullback swing low sitting at the 50% retrace of the Asia leg. RSI(14) is near 62, off its highs.
Support: 158.30, 158.245
Resistance: 158.508, 158.70
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.508 session high opens the 158.70 range top flagged in the 1–3 week band
Loss of the 158.30 swing low (50% retrace) puts the 158.245 prior high back in play as a retest
Lower highs at 158.465/158.462 inside the consolidation; a third failure there tilts the read toward a deeper pullback
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read via US yields
Asia session cleared Monday's 157.91–158.25 range and the prior high at 158.245, running to a 158.508 session high as BoJ hike bets faded. Since then the pair has printed a lower high at 158.465 and is sitting just under EMA20, with RSI(14) cooled to ~56. Price is consolidating above the 158.30 swing low, which also sits on the 50% level of the Asia rally fib.
Support: 158.30, 158.245
Resistance: 158.465, 158.508
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.30 swing low exposes the prior high at 158.245, near the 61.8% of the Asia rally fib
Close above the 158.465 lower high reopens the 158.508 session high; acceptance above it breaks the lower-highs sequence
London open in ~3h typically sets the next range; FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
03:16 UTC
Uptrend, consolidating after Asia breakout · RSI 58 · price 158.396
Break above Tuesday's 157.91–158.25 range; higher low at 158.30, lower high at 158.47 below the 158.51 session high.
The Asia session broke above Tuesday's 157.91–158.25 range and set a session high at 158.51, with fading BoJ hike bets and firmer US yields behind the move. The pullback held the 158.30 swing low, near the 50% level of the asia rally fib and above the 158.25 prior high. Price is now coiling under a lower high at 158.47, RSI(14) neutral near 58, ATR about 8 pips.
Support: 158.30, 158.245
Resistance: 158.465, 158.508
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.30 swing low exposes a retest of the 158.25 prior high
Close above the 158.51 session high extends the breakout and opens the path toward 158.70
Failure at the 158.47 lower high keeps the post-breakout consolidation intact
London open in ~4h; FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
03:01 UTC
Uptrend after range break, consolidating below high · RSI 61 · price 158.44
Tuesday 157.91–158.25 range broken; higher low at 158.30 on retest.
Asia session cleared Tuesday's 157.91–158.25 range at the open, with the yen softening despite the Japan wage beat, and printed a 158.51 session high. The pullback held the 158.30 retest low near the 50% fib of the 158.08 swing low to high leg, and price is back at 158.44 with RSI(14) near 61.
Support: 158.30, 158.25, 158.08
Resistance: 158.51, 158.70
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.25 breakout lvl puts price back inside Tuesday's range
Acceptance above the 158.51 session high opens the path to the 158.70 range top
Loss of the 158.30 retest low exposes the 158.08 swing low
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
02:46 UTC
Uptrend, pullback being bought · RSI 63 · price 158.431
Range break above 158.25, higher low at 158.30.
Asia session lifted USD/JPY out of Monday's 157.91–158.25 range as October BoJ hike bets faded, topping at a 158.51 session high. The pullback held a 158.30 swing low near the 50% fib of the Asia leg, just above the old range top, and price is grinding back toward the high with RSI(14) near 63.
Support: 158.30, 158.25
Resistance: 158.508, 158.70
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.30 swing low puts the 158.25 range top back in play and weakens the breakout
Close above the 158.51 session high opens the 158.70 UOB level; rising support from the 158.08 low intact while above 158.30
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read via US yields
02:31 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back after Asia breakout · RSI 61 · price 158.415
Broke prior range top, higher low at 50% retrace.
Early Asia broke yesterday's 157.91–158.25 range, with the move topping at the 158.51 swing high as the yen lagged a softer dollar despite the wage beat. The pullback held at the 158.30 retest low near the 50% retrace, and price is rebuilding toward the 158.47 first peak.
Support: 158.30, 158.245
Resistance: 158.467, 158.508
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.30 retest low exposes the 158.245 prior high and puts the breakout at risk
Close above the 158.51 swing high resumes the higher-high sequence
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
02:16 UTC
Uptrend, pausing after rejection · RSI 61 · price 158.387
Asia breakout above prior range, pullback holding higher low.
The Asia session broke out of the 157.91–158.245 range that held through London and NY, pushing through the UOB band top at 158.45 to a session high of 158.508 despite the Japan wages beat. The rejection there pulled price back to a 158.299 swing low near the 50% fib of the late NY low-to-high leg. The rising trendline is intact and price sits back above EMA20.
Support: 158.299, 158.245
Resistance: 158.45, 158.508
What it said to watch
M15 close below 158.245 prior high puts price back inside the old range and negates the breakout
Loss of the 158.299 swing low breaks the rising trendline
Close above the 158.508 session high resumes the higher-high sequence; 158.45 UOB band is the first cap
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read via US yields
Asia breakout above prior range top, higher low at 158.30.
Asia session broke out of yesterday's 157.91–158.25 range, with the move topping at a 158.508 session high just above the 158.45–158.47 asia highs as the beat on Japan wages failed to lift the yen. The pullback found a swing low at 158.30, near the 50% fib of the asia rally and well above the old range top at 158.245.
Support: 158.30, 158.245, 158.00
Resistance: 158.467, 158.508
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.245 range top returns price to yesterday's range and turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 158.30 swing low breaks the asia rally trendline
A close above the 158.508 session high clears the asia highs and exposes UOB's 158.70 band top
158.00 psych pivot has been crossed both ways in recent sessions; a revisit tests the lower half of the range
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC later today could materially shift this read
01:46 UTC
Up from overnight base, pulling back off session high · RSI 58 · price 158.325
Breakout above Monday's 158.25 range top, now retesting.
Asia session cleared Monday's 158.25 prior high at the Tokyo open despite the Japan wage beat, tagging a 158.51 session high before a sharp rejection. The pullback is holding the 158.30 pullback low near the 50% fib retrace, just above the old range top.
Support: 158.30, 158.25, 158.08
Resistance: 158.51, 158.70
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 158.25 prior high returns price to Monday's range and negates the breakout
Loss of 158.08 overnight low unwinds the full Asia leg
Reclaim of 158.51 session high opens the 158.70 uob band
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
01:32 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 60 · price 158.36
Asia break above prior range top, rejected at 158.51.
Asia session cleared Monday's 158.24 range top, the prior high, as the Japan wage beat failed to lift the yen. The pair ran to a 158.51 session high just past the UOB band top at 158.45. A 18-pip rejection bar then dropped price to a 158.32 spike low. It now sits near the 38.2% retracement of the 158.08 swing low to high leg, with RSI(14) cooling to about 60.
Support: 158.32, 158.24, 158.08
Resistance: 158.45, 158.51
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.32 spike low exposes the 158.24 prior high, which aligns with the 61.8% fib
A clean close back above the 158.45 UOB top and 158.51 session high resumes the breakout
Loss of the 158.08 swing low puts price back inside the prior range
FOMC Minutes later Wednesday (18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
01:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, extended near session high · RSI 77 · price 158.473
Asia breakout above the 158.05–158.25 range, higher lows.
The Asia session broke above Tuesday's London high at 158.245 and printed a session high at 158.51; the 3.8% wage beat did not lift the yen. The 158.39 pullback low held, the rising trendline from the 158.08 session low is intact, and RSI(14) is near 77.
Support: 158.39, 158.245, 158.076
Resistance: 158.508, 158.70
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 158.39 pullback low would stall the breakout leg
A close above the 158.51 session high opens the 158.70 UOB range top
A drop back under the rising trendline and the 158.245 London high (61.8% of the Asian rally fib) would return price to the prior range
Loss of the 158.08 session low would invalidate the Asia breakout
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC, and any MoF verbal warning on the approach toward 160, could materially shift this read
01:02 UTC
Uptrend, extended into Asia · RSI 79 · price 158.454
Range breakout, higher lows since late NY.
Asia session broke the 158.25 prior high that capped London and NY, then extended to a 158.47 session high on rising lows from 158.08, with the Japan wage beat doing little to slow it. Price is pressing the session high, three tests near 158.47, with RSI(14) near 79 and the 158.39 pullback low as first support.
Support: 158.39, 158.25, 158.00
Resistance: 158.47, 158.50, 158.70
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.25 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break
Close above the 158.50 round number exposes the 158.70 uob band top
Break of the rising lows line and the 158.39 pullback low opens the 38.2% of the Asia leg fib near 158.32
Return through the 158.00 pivot negates the breakout read entirely
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read via US yields
00:46 UTC
Uptrend, first pause after breakout · RSI 69 · price 158.404
Asia break above prior-day range top, higher lows since 158.076.
Early Asia session pushed out of yesterday's 157.91–158.245 range, ignoring the Japanese wage beat, and tagged a session high at 158.467 just above UOB's 158.45 band before stalling. RSI(14) eases toward 69; the prior high at 158.245 and the rising trendline from the 158.076 session low sit beneath.
Support: 158.245, 158.076, 158.00
Resistance: 158.467, 158.70
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 158.245 prior high turns the range break into a false break, exposing the 158.00 pivot
Clearance of 158.467 session high opens the 158.70 uob band top
38.2% of the asia leg fib near 158.32 is the first pullback reference; loss of the rising trendline weakens the higher-low chain
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; any MoF verbal warning would hit the topside
00:31 UTC
Uptrend, extended into Tokyo open · RSI 79 · price 158.439
Higher-low chain from 158.08; prior-day range top at 158.25 broken.
The Asia session opened with a 14-pip impulse through the prior high at 158.25 to a session high of 158.47, after a day capped at 158.25 above a double low at 157.91. The marginal Japan wage beat failed to lift the yen, and the rally has stalled at the 158.45 intraday range top flagged in the market digest, with RSI(14) near 79.
Support: 158.25, 158.08, 157.91
Resistance: 158.47, 158.70
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 158.25 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break
Acceptance above 158.47 session high opens the 158.70 band top
Failure to hold the 158.08 swing low, the 0.618-1.0 zone of the Asia leg fib, breaks the higher-low chain toward the 157.91 double low
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC; US yield moves are the dominant driver for this pair
HH/HL chain off the 158.076 asian low, breakout above the 157.91–158.245 range.
Early Asia broke out of the 157.91–158.245 London/NY range. Higher lows off the 158.076 asian low ran to a session high at 158.456, just under the 158.50 round number; the 3.8% wages beat did not lift the yen. RSI(14) near 83 is overbought, and the 00:00 UTC bar alone covered more than twice the ~6-pip ATR.
Support: 158.245, 158.076, 157.91
Resistance: 158.50, 158.70
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.245 prior high, near the fib 61.8%, would mark a false break
A break of the asia trendline exposes the 158.245 prior high, then the 158.076 asian low
Acceptance above the 158.50 round number opens the 158.70 range top
Loss of the 157.91 swing low would undo the whole breakout
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read via US yields
00:01 UTC
Uptrend, pressing session high · RSI 70 · price 158.321
Higher lows since NY session low, breakout above prior-day high.
Early Asia session lifted USDJPY through the prior high at 158.245 to a session high of 158.336, extending the rising lows from the 157.91 NY session low. Japan's 3.8% wage beat did nothing for the yen. RSI(14) near 70 is warm but not stretched, and the late-NY cap around 158.17 and the 158.076 swing low sit beneath.
Support: 158.245, 158.17, 158.076
Resistance: 158.336, 158.45
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.245 prior high would mark a false break
Loss of the 158.076 swing low breaks the rising lows trendline
158.45 range top is the next area to watch for rejection or break
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read via US yields