21:05 UTC
Transitioning: recovery from Sept low beneath lower highs · RSI 57 · price 158.371
Lower highs since late-July top; 156.38–158.45 range for two weeks.
The late-July intervention broke the run from 163.99, and highs have kept stepping lower since: the 160 cap at 160.39 on Sep 2, then the lower high at 159.03 on Sep 24, even as price recovered from the 152.89 sept low. For the past two weeks price has held a 156.38–158.45 range. The range top coincides with the 50% retrace of the Jul–Sep decline and the 200-DMA near 158.50 cited in the digest. Price has edged back above a flattening ema50 near 158.07 as high US yields and oil keep USD firm, while hawkish BoJ talk and intervention risk near 160 offset it.
Support: 158.07, 156.38, 152.89
Resistance: 158.45, 159.03, 160.39
What it said to watch
- Daily close above 158.45 range top and the 50% retrace opens the 159.03 lower high
- Close above 159.03 breaks the lower-highs sequence; the 160 cap and MoF intervention risk sit just above
- Loss of the ema50 and the recovery line near 157.50 returns focus to the 156.38 range floor; a break there puts the 152.89 sept low back in view
- US jobless claims plus Waller/Musalem on Thu and UoM inflation expectations on Fri could materially shift this read
- Any rise in BoJ Oct 30 hike pricing from ~25% would test the recovery structure