21:04 UTC
Downtrend since late-July top, now ranging · RSI 50 · price 158.027
Lower highs 163.99/160.39/159.03, Sept low held, 3-week range.
USDJPY has printed lower highs since the late-July top at 163.99, with a lower high at 160.39 in early September and another at 159.03 late in the month. The 152.89 Sept low has held, and price has spent three weeks in a range between the 156.38 range low and the 159.03 range top. Price at 158.03 holds above the ema20 near 157.49 but sits just under a flattening EMA(50) near 158.13 and the lower-highs line, roughly a 47% retracement of the Jul–Sep decline. Hawkish FOMC minutes and firm US yields lifted the pair to a weekly high at 158.51 despite strong Japanese CPI and wage prints, while intervention talk near 159 frames the range top.
Support: 157.49, 156.38, 152.89
Resistance: 158.51, 159.03, 160.39
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the 159.03 range top breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 61.8% Jul–Sep decline fib near 159.75, then the 160.39 lower high
- Close back below the ema20 near 157.49 shifts focus to the 156.38 range low; a break there resumes the Jul–Sep decline toward the 152.89 Sept low
- Rejection again at the 158.51 weekly high keeps the three-week range intact beneath the EMA(50)
- Fri UMich inflation expectations and Fed's Collins, then BoJ's Koeda on Oct 15 (October hike odds ~17%), could materially shift this read
- MoF verbal intervention as price approaches 159 would reinforce the range top