21:04 UTC
Transitioning, lower highs since late-July top · RSI 55 · price 157.921
Lower highs vs higher low, contracting range near 158.
The 30-31 July collapse from 163.99 ended the Q2 uptrend, and the pair has since printed lower highs at 163.99, 160.39 (sep high) and 159.03 (swing high), while the 152.89 sep low has been followed by a higher low at 156.38. For eight sessions price has coiled in a 156.38–158.45 range, with the range top sitting on the 50% retracement of the Jul–Sep fib leg. EMA(50) near 158.11 is flattening and capping closes, with EMA(20) at 157.41 now underneath; soft US payrolls and hawkish BoJ signals have pinned the pair near 158 between the lower-highs and higher-lows lines.
Support: 156.38, 155.23, 152.89
Resistance: 158.45, 159.03, 160.39
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the 158.45 range top and lower-highs line would clear the 50% fib and expose the 159.03 swing high, with the 160.39 sep high and the 160 intervention zone beyond
- Daily close below the 156.38 range low breaks the higher-lows line and reopens the 155.23 aug low, with the 152.89 sep low below that
- Japan Aug Labor Cash Earnings (23:30 GMT tonight) and the FOMC Minutes (Wed 18:00 UTC) could break the contracting range in either direction
- Converging lower-highs and higher-lows lines leave only about 75 pips between them, so a decisive daily close outside either line resolves the coil