Multi-month uptrend intact, price holding above a rising EMA(50) since the April rebound off 155.03 and pressing toward the 162.84 40-year high. The advance has been carry-driven on wide US-Japan rate differentials, with the yen pinned near cycle lows; the last two weeks have stalled in a 161.00–162.84 band after the pullback to 160.63. Price is consolidating just below the cycle high rather than extending.
Support: 160.60
Resistance: 162.84, 163.00
What it said to watch
D1 close above 162.84 opens the path to 163.00 and lifts intervention risk
Failure to hold 161.00 exposes 160.60 range low
FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
21:02 UTC
Uptrend, near cycle high · RSI 60 · price 162.107
Higher highs, consolidating below 162.84.
USDJPY has ground higher for four months, holding above a rising EMA(50) since the early-April flush to 155.03, driven by the wide US-Japan rate gap and heavy carry demand. Two attempts at the 162.84 cycle/40-yr high have stalled, and price spent last week consolidating 160.60–162.60 before recovering to 162.11. The 162.84 zone is the de facto intervention line, with a sharp pullback last week showing supply capping the topside.
Support: 160.48
Resistance: 162.84
What it said to watch
A daily close above 162.84 clears the cycle high but sharply raises MoF intervention risk
Failure to hold the 160.48 swing low would break the recent higher-low chain
FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC is the key near-term USD catalyst for this read