USD/JPY AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Friday, 16 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/JPY 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
20:46 UTC
Two-way, fading off NY session high · RSI 41 · price 157.988
Both-sided sweep of the Asian range, lower highs into the Friday close.
The Asian push to the 158.18 asian high faded on Warsh's lack of fresh guidance. After the NY open, price swept the 157.80 asian low to a 157.69 session low, then ran to a 158.335 session high above the Asian top before reversing. Price has slipped back to 157.99, between the 50% and 61.8% retrace of that rally, and late-Friday trade is compressing on a 157.95 late base under a 158.07 lower high, RSI(14) ~41.
Support: 157.95, 157.80, 157.69
Resistance: 158.07, 158.18, 158.335
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 157.95 late base exposes the 157.80 asian low and 157.69 session low
Close above the 158.07 lower high breaks the descending highs line and reopens 158.18 asian high
Thin pre-weekend liquidity; IMF weekend headlines could gap the open and shift this read
20:31 UTC
Intraday range, fading from NY high · RSI 44 · price 157.983
NY sweep of Asian low, failed hold above Asian high, lower highs since.
NY hours swept the Asian low to the 157.69 NY low, then rallied through the 158.18 Asian high to a 158.335 NY high before the move unwound back to the late NY low near 157.95, about 55% into the NY rally fib. Hot US data and Warsh's lack of fresh guidance left the pair pinned near 158.00. Lower highs capped at 158.07 in thin Friday trade.
Support: 157.954, 157.80, 157.692
Resistance: 158.07, 158.181, 158.335
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.95 late ny low exposes the 157.80 asian low
Close above the 158.07 lower high breaks the fade trendline off the ny high
IMF meetings over the weekend could gap the open away from this range
20:16 UTC
Two-way intraday, fading off the NY high · RSI 42 · price 157.982
Both sides of the Asian range swept, then full retrace to 158.00.
Late NY, Friday. Early NY swept the 157.80 asian low into a 157.69 ny low, then rallied through the 158.18 asian high to the 158.335 day high, a false break that fully faded back to 158.00 as Warsh offered no fresh guidance. Price now sits near the 61.8% of the ny rally fib and the 157.95 late low, capped by the fade line off the day high.
Support: 157.95, 157.80, 157.69
Resistance: 158.07, 158.18, 158.335
What it said to watch
A close below the 157.95 late low and the 61.8% fib exposes the 157.80 asian low, then the 157.69 ny low
A close above the fade line and the 158.07 minor high reopens the 158.18 asian high; the 158.335 day high is the session top
Weekend IMF meetings and any MoF or Fed headlines could gap the Monday open
20:01 UTC
Range, fading from NY high · RSI 43 · price 157.979
Lower highs off 158.34 NY high, price mid-range inside 157.69–158.34.
Early NY swept the asian low to a 157.69 ny low, then reversed hard to 158.34 before a steady fade of lower highs. USD/JPY stays pinned near 158.00 after Warsh offered no fresh guidance. Late NY price sits just above the 61.8% fib at 157.94, below the ema20 near 158.05, with RSI(14) at 43.
Support: 157.94, 157.80, 157.69
Resistance: 158.05, 158.18, 158.34
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 61.8% fib at 157.94 reopens the asian low at 157.80 and the 157.69 ny low
Reclaiming the ema20 at 158.05 and breaking the fade line from 158.34 brings the asian high at 158.18 back into play
Thin liquidity into the Friday close and weekend IMF headline risk can produce gappy prints
19:46 UTC
Intraday range, fading from session high · RSI 42 · price 157.975
Lower highs since 158.335 inside a 157.69–158.34 day range.
NY hours dropped price to a 157.69 ny low, below the 157.80 asian low, then it ran through the 158.18 asian high to a 158.335 session high. That break failed. Late NY has faded back to 157.97 on a string of lower highs, now sitting just above the fib 61.8 at 157.94 with RSI(14) near 42, consistent with the digest's read of a pair pinned around 158.00 despite broad USD softness.
Support: 157.94, 157.80, 157.69
Resistance: 158.07, 158.18, 158.335
What it said to watch
M15 close below the fib 61.8 at 157.94 exposes the asian low at 157.80, then the ny low at 157.69
M15 close above the 158.07 lower high breaks the fade trendline and reopens the asian high at 158.18
Reclaim of the 158.335 session high would negate the false break above the Asian range
Thin late-Friday liquidity and weekend IMF meeting headlines carry gap risk into the next open
NY expansion swept both sides of the Asian range, now back inside it.
NY session dipped through the Asian low to a 157.69 NY low, then rallied 64 pips through the Asian high to a 158.335 NY high. That breakout has since faded back inside the Asian range, with price near the 50% fib of the NY swing, below EMA20 and hovering on EMA50, RSI(14) neutral at 51. The softer-dollar backdrop kept the post-industrial-production rally from holding despite the beat.
Support: 157.97, 157.80, 157.69
Resistance: 158.09, 158.18, 158.335
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 157.97 late NY low exposes the 157.80 Asian low and the 157.69 NY low
Recovery above the 158.09 London high (38.2% fib) puts the 158.18 Asian high back in play; the 158.335 NY high caps the session
Thin late-Friday liquidity into the weekly close; IMF meetings Oct 17–18 carry weekend headline risk for USD
19:16 UTC
Intraday range, fading after NY spike · RSI 50 · price 158.043
V-reversal in NY that failed above the Asian high; lower highs since 158.335.
NY trade swept the asian low at 157.796 to a 157.692 ny low as the dollar slid on lower yields, then the NY rally ran to a 158.335 day high above the asian high before failing back inside the range. Late NY, price is pinned at 158.04 between the fib 38.2 at 158.089 and the 158.00 round number, with RSI(14) flat near 50.
Support: 158.00, 157.796, 157.692
Resistance: 158.089, 158.181, 158.335
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.00 round number exposes the NY rally 61.8% at 157.94, then the asian low at 157.796
Reclaim of the asian high at 158.181 reopens the 158.335 day high and negates the false-break read
Thin pre-weekend liquidity; the pending US budget statement and weekend IMF/Fed headlines could shift this read at the open
18:46 UTC
Two-way intraday swings, pullback from NY high · RSI 48 · price 158.037
NY sweep of Asian low, failed break of Asian high, lower highs from 158.335.
NY swept the Asian low near 157.80 to a 157.69 ny low, then reversed through the Asian high at 158.18 to a 158.335 session high as USD steadied late on the industrial production and import price beats. That break failed, and price has stepped down in lower highs to the 50% fib near 158.01, with RSI(14) near 48 and EMA20 just overhead.
Support: 158.01, 157.94, 157.69
Resistance: 158.18, 158.335
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 158.18 asian high reopens the 158.335 session high
Failure to hold the 61.8% fib at 157.94 exposes the 157.69 ny low
Thin late-Friday liquidity and weekend IMF or Fed headlines could shift this read at the open
18:31 UTC
Two-way, fading from NY session high · RSI 49 · price 158.041
NY swept below Asian low, reversed through Asian high, now back inside the Asian range.
The NY open swept the 157.80 Asian low to a 157.69 NY low, then reversed through the 158.18 Asian high to a 158.335 session high as the dollar steadied on the industrial production and import price beats. That break did not hold. Price has faded back inside the Asian range to sit at the 50% retrace near the 158.00 round number, between the fib 38.2 at 158.09 and the 61.8% at 157.94, with RSI(14) neutral near 48.
Support: 158.00, 157.80, 157.69
Resistance: 158.09, 158.18, 158.335
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.00 round number and the 157.94 61.8% retrace exposes the 157.80 Asian low
Reclaim of the 158.18 Asian high, after first clearing the fib 38.2 at 158.09, puts the 158.335 session high back in focus
Late-Friday NY hours into the weekend IMF meetings: thin liquidity can distort the intraday range
18:16 UTC
Intraday rebound, pulling back · RSI 56 · price 158.08
V-recovery from NY low, slipped back below Asian high.
Early NY hours swept the Asian low and printed a double bottom at the 157.69 NY low as DXY hit session lows. Price then rebounded through the 158.18 Asian high to a 158.335 NY high as USD steadied on the Industrial Production and Import Price beats. Late NY it has slipped back below the Asian high and sits on the 38.2% of the rebound at 158.09, with RSI(14) cooling to the mid-50s.
Support: 158.00, 157.94, 157.69
Resistance: 158.18, 158.335
What it said to watch
Holding the 158.00 round number keeps the 157.69–158.335 rebound intact; a close below the 61.8% fib at 157.94 exposes the NY low
An M15 close back above the 158.18 Asian high reopens the 158.335 NY high
Pending US Monthly Budget Statement and thin late-Friday trade into the weekly close could distort the read
18:01 UTC
Rebounding from NY low, momentum cooling · RSI 61 · price 158.16
Asian low swept, Asian high broken, pullback holding 38.2%.
NY broke the 157.80 Asian low and swept down to a 157.69 NY low as the dollar softened. The low was rejected sharply, and price ran through the 158.18 Asian high to a 158.335 NY high. The pullback since has held a 158.08 pullback low at the 38.2% retrace of the NY rally, and price is now testing the Asian high from below late in the NY session, with RSI(14) cooling to ~61.
Support: 158.08, 158.00, 157.69
Resistance: 158.18, 158.335
What it said to watch
A close below the 158.08 pullback low exposes the 158.00 round number and the 50% retrace near 158.01
Sustained trade back above the 158.18 Asian high reopens the 158.335 NY high
Loss of 158.00 shifts focus back to the 157.69 NY low and the 61.8% retrace near 157.94
The US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC and thin Friday-close liquidity could distort the late-session range
NY low sweep then reversal, pullback testing breakout.
Early NY broke below the Asian low to a 157.69 NY low, then reversed through the Asian high to a 158.34 session high. The pullback held the 38.2% fib at 158.09 and price is back at the Asian high late in NY hours. The digest notes the softer dollar is not translating into yen strength, which fits the pair staying pinned near 158.
Support: 158.087, 158.014, 157.692
Resistance: 158.19, 158.335
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 158.09 (fib 38.2) exposes the fib 50 at 158.01
Sustained M15 closes above the 158.19 Asian high keep the breakout intact toward the 158.34 session high
Loss of the 157.69 NY low would negate the reversal
US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC and thin Friday-close liquidity could shift this read
NY swept the Asian low and then broke the Asian high; first pullback now retesting it.
The NY open slide swept the 157.80 Asian low to a 157.69 ny low. Price then reversed through the 158.18 asian high to a 158.335 session high as yen weakness outweighed broad USD softness. Late-NY price is now retesting the asian high, with RSI(14) cooling to 66.
Support: 158.18, 158.09, 157.69
Resistance: 158.335, 158.50
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 158.18 asian high puts the 158.09 london high, the 38.2% retracement, in play
An M15 close above the 158.335 session high opens the 158.50 round number
A break back below the 157.69 ny low negates the NY reversal
Liquidity thins into the Friday close; the 18:00 UTC US budget statement is low impact
17:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend after NY reversal · RSI 64 · price 158.255
False break below Asian low, then range break above Asian high.
Early NY broke below the 157.80–158.18 Asian range to a 157.69 NY low, then reversed through the Asian high and the London high to a 158.335 session high, with RSI(14) near 64. Yen weakness on the crosses outweighed broad USD softness; late NY is now holding just under the session high, well above the 38.2% of the NY rally fib.
Support: 158.18, 158.09, 157.69
Resistance: 158.335, 158.50
What it said to watch
Holding above the asian high at 158.18 keeps the range break intact; a slip back below the london high at 158.09 (38.2% of the NY rally fib) would turn the topside move into a false break
M15 close above the 158.335 session high opens the 158.50 round number, the top of UOB's 157.80–158.50 band
Loss of the NY rising trendline and the 157.69 NY low would negate the reversal
US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC; thin late-Friday liquidity into the weekly close
16:46 UTC
Intraday recovery, testing range top · RSI 63 · price 158.174
V-recovery from NY low back to Asian high.
The early NY dip on the broad USD slide broke the asian low at 157.80 and reached the ny low at 157.69, where a two-touch base held and price recovered nearly 50 pips along a rising trendline. After London close, price is through the london high at 158.09 and pressing the asian high at 158.18, just under yesterday's prior high at 158.21, with RSI(14) near 63.
Support: 158.09, 157.80, 157.69
Resistance: 158.18, 158.21
What it said to watch
M15 close above 158.21 prior high breaks out of the 24h range
Rejection at 158.18 asian high and a close back below 158.09 london high returns price to the session range
Loss of the rising trendline from the 157.69 ny low weakens the recovery; a break below 157.80 asian low re-exposes the lows
Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC and thin Friday-close liquidity could distort late-session moves
16:31 UTC
Rebounding inside a sideways range · RSI 55 · price 158.041
False break of Asian low, higher lows into London high.
The 13:30 UTC NY drop broke the asian low at 157.80 and hit a ny low near 157.69, but a double bottom there and a chain of higher lows lifted price back inside the Asian range to 158.04. Price is now pressing the london high at 158.08–158.09, which capped three times, while the pair holds near 158 despite broad USD weakness.
Support: 157.80, 157.69
Resistance: 158.09, 158.18
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.09 london high opens the 158.18 asian high
Failure back below the 157.80 asian low exposes the 157.69 ny low and voids the false-break read
A break of the higher-lows trendline near 157.90 flattens the NY rebound
US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC is a medium-impact risk into a thinning late NY session
16:16 UTC
Range, recovering from NY sweep · RSI 53 · price 158.003
NY swept below the Asian low, double bottom at 157.69, higher lows since.
The 13:30 UTC NY slide broke through the Asian low at 157.80 and stopped at 157.69. That NY low held twice as a double bottom. Higher lows have since carried price back above 158.00, retracing about 78% of the drop with RSI(14) neutral near 53. Hawkish BoJ talk is not lifting the yen, which keeps the pair pinned near 158 despite the softer dollar.
Support: 157.94, 157.80, 157.69
Resistance: 158.09, 158.18, 158.23
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.09 session high opens the asian high at 158.18 and the prior high at 158.23
Slip back below the 61.8 fib at 157.94 breaks the higher lows and weakens the double bottom read
Close below the asian low at 157.80 puts the 157.69 ny low back in play
US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC lands in thin post-London-close liquidity heading into the weekend
16:01 UTC
Range-bound, recovering from NY flush · RSI 48 · price 157.917
157.80–158.09 range; NY false break below asian low reclaimed.
NY session flushed from the 158.09 range top through the 157.80 asian low to 157.69, tracking the softer USD and lower yields. Price was quickly reclaimed back inside the range. The rebound is stalling near the 157.95 61.8% fib, with price flat on EMA20 and RSI(14) neutral near 48.
Support: 157.80, 157.69
Resistance: 157.95, 158.09, 158.18
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 157.80 asian low turns the false break into a breakdown and reopens the 157.69 ny low
Acceptance above the 157.95 61.8% fib points back toward the 158.09 range top, with the 158.18 asian high above
US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC; Friday close thins liquidity into weekend Fed commentary at the IMF
False break below Asian low, price back inside 157.80–158.18 range.
Broad USD selling in the first hours of NY pushed the pair through the asian low at 157.80 to a ny low of 157.69, but the break did not hold. Price has reclaimed the Asian range, and the rebound stalled at the 157.95 bounce high near the 61.8% of the NY drop. RSI(14) sits at 45 with price just under both EMAs, and yen weakness kept the dip shallow despite the softer dollar.
Support: 157.80, 157.69
Resistance: 157.95, 158.09, 158.18
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the asian low at 157.80 revives the downside break toward the ny low at 157.69
Close above the 157.95 bounce high and then the 158.09 session high reopens the asian high at 158.18
Price is pivoting at the 50% of the NY drop (157.89), the midpoint of the rebound
US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC; US yields remain the main driver into the weekly close
NY broke below Asian low, reclaimed it; capped at 157.95 rebound high.
Asia set a 157.80–158.18 range and London stayed inside it, topping at the 158.09 London high. At the NY open the softer dollar pulled the pair through the Asian low to a 157.69 NY low. Buyers reclaimed 157.80 within an hour, and the rebound has stalled at 157.95, near the 61.8% retrace of the NY drop.
Support: 157.80, 157.69
Resistance: 157.95, 158.09, 158.18
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 157.80 Asian low reopens the 157.69 NY low
Close above the 157.95 rebound high puts the 158.09 London high and 158.18 Asian high back in play
US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC is usually low impact, but Friday-afternoon liquidity is thinning into the weekly close
15:16 UTC
Sideways, lower highs since Asia · RSI 47 · price 157.943
Range 157.69–158.09; NY false break below Asian low reclaimed.
Early NY selling on softer USD and lower yields broke the Asian low at 157.80 and stalled at 157.69 twice, forming a small double bottom. Price has since reclaimed the range and sits at the 61.8% retracement of the NY drop near 157.94, pressing EMA50. The lower high at 158.09 and the falling trendline from the 158.18 Asian high still cap the topside.
Support: 157.80, 157.69
Resistance: 158.09, 158.18
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 157.80 Asian low negates the false break and puts the 157.69 NY low back in play
Close above the 158.09 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and opens the 158.18 Asian high
Failure to hold above the 61.8% fib of the NY drop (~157.94) keeps the reclaim fragile
US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC and the Friday weekly close may add late-session USD noise
Asian/London range broken lower at NY open; lower highs since.
Selling into the NY open broke the 157.80–158.09 Asian/London range and printed a session low at 157.69, in line with broad USD weakness on falling yields and dovish Fed commentary. A retest back above the broken Asian low to the 157.87 bounce high was rejected. Price now sits on the low with RSI(14) at 34, soft but not oversold.
Support: 157.69, 157.50
Resistance: 157.80, 157.87, 158.09
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 157.87 bounce high breaks the lower-highs sequence; holding under the 157.80 asian low keeps the range break intact
Acceptance below the 157.69 session low exposes the 157.50 pivot, which held twice this week
Recovery through the 158.09 range top would turn the move into a false break
Monthly Budget Statement 18:00 UTC is minor; Treasury yields and AI equity sentiment into the weekly close remain the live drivers
14:31 UTC
Intraday range broken lower, sharp NY-open drop · RSI 40 · price 157.795
157.82–158.09 London range broken lower; price retesting the broken floor from below.
Supply capped the session high at 158.09 twice. The NY drop then broke the London low and the Asian floor near 157.80, printing a 157.69 ny low as falling yields outweighed the IP and import-price beats. Price has bounced back to retest the broken london low area from below, with RSI(14) near 40 and ATR(14) around 9–10 pips.
Support: 157.69, 157.50
Resistance: 157.82, 158.09
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 157.82 london low turns the move into a false break and reopens the 158.09 session high
Failure to hold 157.69 ny low exposes the 157.50 pivot, the week's two-time hold
Rejection near the 50–61.8% retrace of the ny drop (157.89–157.94) keeps the break intact
US Budget Statement 18:00 UTC is low-tier; yields and AI risk tone remain the swing factors
157.80–158.09 Asia/London range broken to the downside in early NY.
Asia and London held a 157.80–158.09 range. In the first hour of NY, a 39-pip drop from the 158.09 range top broke the range low and set a 157.70 session low as USD weakness on falling yields resumed. RSI(14) sits near 33, not yet oversold, and the 157.50 pivot is the next reference below.
Support: 157.703, 157.50
Resistance: 157.80, 158.092
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 157.80 range low would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 157.70 session low exposes the 157.50 pivot
US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC is low-tier. Yields and AI-led risk sentiment remain the main USD drivers into the weekly close
14:01 UTC
Sideways, compressing · RSI 52 · price 157.941
Lower highs vs higher lows inside the Asian range.
Early NY trade is pinned inside a 157.82–158.09 band that held through London, itself nested within the 157.80–158.18 Asian range. The push to the 158.09 session high after the US industrial production beat met rejection, adding another lower high, while lows keep edging higher. Broad USD softness is offsetting rate-gap support; ATR(14) near 8 pips reflects the compression.
Support: 157.89, 157.80
Resistance: 158.09, 158.18
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.89 higher low breaks the rising-lows sequence and exposes the 157.80 asian low
Close above the lower-highs line and the 158.09 session high reopens the 158.18 asian high
Thin US calendar: yields and AI/equity risk sentiment are the main swing factors into the weekend IMF meetings
13:46 UTC
Sideways, higher lows compressing into cap · RSI 61 · price 158.043
Higher lows under flat 158.09 cap, inside Asian range.
USD/JPY slipped from the 158.18 Asian high to a 157.80 Asian low as broad USD weakness after Warsh's no-guidance remarks pulled it under 158.00. Since then it has printed higher lows at 157.80, 157.82 and 157.90 while the London session high at 158.09 capped three tests. Price is compressing just under that cap into the first hour of NY, still inside the Asian range.
Support: 157.896, 157.796
Resistance: 158.092, 158.181, 158.245
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.09 session high opens the 158.18 Asian high, then the 158.245 prior high
Failure to hold the 157.896 higher low breaks the rising-lows structure back toward the 157.80 Asian low
Asian low at 157.80 is also the base of UOB's 157.80–158.50 band; a break there shifts the read lower
Further USD selling on falling yields or AI risk-off could cap rallies at the session high
13:31 UTC
Sideways, compressing under 158.09 · RSI 59 · price 158.038
Inside Asian range; higher lows into a flat cap.
USDJPY has held inside the 157.80–158.18 Asian range all day. London and NY have each been rejected at the 158.08–158.09 session high while printing higher lows at the 157.82 London low and 157.90 NY low. A softer USD and hawkish BoJ talk have produced little net move, and US Industrial Production lands in the current bar.
Support: 157.896, 157.819, 157.796
Resistance: 158.09, 158.181, 158.245
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.09 session high breaks the compression and exposes the 158.18 Asian high, then the 158.245 prior high from yesterday's NY session
Failure to hold the 157.90 NY low breaks the higher-lows trendline and puts the 157.82 London low and 157.80 Asian low back in play
US Industrial Production (13:15 UTC, f/c 0.4% m/m) prints inside the current bar and could materially shift this read; Monthly Budget Statement follows at 18:00 UTC
13:16 UTC
Sideways, rising lows · RSI 58 · price 158.051
Higher lows compressing under a flat 158.08–158.09 range top, inside the Asian range.
Early in the NY session, the dip after the 12:30 UTC import-price beat held a 157.90 swing low, extending the rising lows off the 157.80 Asian low. Price is pressing the 158.09 range top again. London and NY trade has stayed inside the Asian range despite the soft-dollar backdrop.
Support: 157.896, 157.80
Resistance: 158.09, 158.181, 158.245
What it said to watch
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) lands on the next bar and could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 158.09 range top opens the 158.18 Asian high, then the 158.245 prior high
Break of the 157.90 swing low cancels the rising-lows sequence and exposes the 157.80 Asian low
Range 157.80–158.18 since Asia; higher low into NY open.
USDJPY has held inside the Asian range (157.80–158.18) through London despite the soft-USD tone. The pair made a higher low at 157.90 in the first hour of NY and is now pressing the 158.09 London session high with RSI(14) near 57.
Support: 157.90, 157.80
Resistance: 158.09, 158.18, 158.245
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.09 session high opens the 158.18 asian high, then yesterday's 158.245 prior high
Failure to hold the 157.90 higher low puts the 157.80 asian low back in play and breaks the rising support
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could materially shift this read; the market has been fading strong US data
Tight range 157.80–158.09 inside the Asian range, lower highs since Asia.
USDJPY is boxed in a 157.80–158.09 range through Asia and London, with lower highs off the 158.18 asian high, a rejection at the 158.09 london high and price straddling EMA20/EMA50. The soft-USD tone on falling Treasury yields has capped rallies, while demand at the 157.80 range floor sits on the 61.8% thu rally fib of the 157.55–158.25 move.
Support: 157.94, 157.80, 157.55
Resistance: 158.09, 158.18, 158.25
What it said to watch
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could break the session range either side
M15 close above 158.09 london high and the lower highs line opens 158.18 asian high, then 158.25 thu high
Loss of the 157.94 ny low puts the 157.80 range floor back in play
Failure to hold 157.80 range floor exposes 157.55 thu low
12:31 UTC
Sideways, compressing · RSI 49 · price 157.992
London contained inside Asian range; flat highs, lows held.
London has stayed inside the 157.80–158.18 Asian range, with the London high at 158.09 and London low at 157.82. Price sits near 157.99, at the midpoint of the range, flat on EMA20/50, with RSI(14) neutral at 49 and ATR near 8 pips. The Asian low has absorbed three tests since the slide that followed Warsh's IMF speech, which gave no rate signal while softer yields weighed on USD.
Support: 157.82, 157.80, 157.55
Resistance: 158.09, 158.18, 158.25
What it said to watch
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) lands in the London-NY transition and could break the range
An M15 close below the 157.80 Asian low ends the range read and exposes the 157.55 prior low and 157.50 pivot
A close above the 158.09 London high opens a retest of the 158.18 Asian high and the 158.25 prior high
12:16 UTC
Sideways, range-bound near 158.00 · RSI 52 · price 158.018
London range nested inside Asian range, higher low at 157.82.
USDJPY has held the 157.80–158.18 Asian range all session, and London built a tighter 157.82–158.09 range inside it. Price is sitting near 158.00 into the NY open with RSI(14) flat at 52 and ATR around 8 pips. The broader bracket is the 157.55 prior low and 158.25 prior high from yesterday's hot-PPI swing, and the soft-USD digest tone has yet to produce a break.
Support: 157.96, 157.80, 157.55
Resistance: 158.09, 158.18, 158.25
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 158.09 session high puts the 158.18 asian high and 158.25 prior high in play
Holding the 50% of the London leg near the 157.96 micro low keeps the higher-low sequence intact; losing it returns price to the 157.80 asian low
A break of the 157.80 asian low exposes the 157.55 prior low, near the digest's 157.50 pivot
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could materially shift this read early in the NY session
Inside Asian range, higher low at 157.82, capped at session high.
Late London is still trading inside the 157.80–158.18 Asian range. The 11:00 UTC impulse off a higher low at the 157.82 london low lifted price into the 158.08–158.09 session high, a level that has now capped three probes. RSI(14) sits near 58 and ATR is about 8 pips, a compressed tape after soft USD and falling yields kept the pair below Thursday's post-PPI prior high at 158.25.
Support: 157.82, 157.80, 157.55
Resistance: 158.09, 158.18, 158.25
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.09 session high opens the 158.18 asian high, then the 158.25 prior high
Failure to hold the 157.82 london low and the 157.80 asian low breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the 157.55 prior low
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%), in the first hour of NY, could break the Asian range either way
London range 157.80–158.08 nested inside the 157.80–158.18 Asian range.
USDJPY has held inside the Asian range (157.80–158.18) through London. The session high at the 158.08 range top has capped price three times, and the 157.80 range floor has held since Asia. Price is back above the ema50 and sits at the 61.8% retracement of the Asian range drop, with RSI(14) at 56; the softer USD tone after Thursday's faded PPI spike has kept upside attempts shallow.
Support: 157.97, 157.80, 157.55
Resistance: 158.08, 158.18, 158.245
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.08 range top opens the asian high at 158.18, then the prior high at 158.245
Failure to hold the 157.97 ema50 returns focus to the 157.80 range floor; a break there exposes the prior low at 157.55
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (16:15 broker) lands early in NY hours and could materially shift this read
London range 157.82–158.08 inside the Asian range, higher low held.
USD/JPY is rotating inside the 157.80–158.18 Asian range after hawkish BoJ commentary and Warsh's non-committal IMF remarks faded the early Asian lift. London has held 157.82–158.08 with a higher low above the Asian low; the late-London bounce is now pressing the London high, RSI(14) neutral near 52.
Support: 157.82, 157.80, 157.55
Resistance: 158.08, 158.18, 158.245
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.08 london high opens the 158.18 asian high, with the 158.245 prior high above
Failure to hold the 157.82 london low and 157.80 asian low breaks the higher lows and exposes the 157.55 prior low
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could materially shift this read
Loss of the 58% fib of the Asian drop near 157.98 returns price to mid-range
Late London, still inside the 157.80–158.18 Asian range. The London push stalled at the 158.08 london high and has printed lower highs under a falling trendline since. The 157.80 asian low and 157.82 london low have held on four tests, with lower UST yields and hawkish BoJ talk keeping a lid on the pair. RSI(14) is neutral near 45 and ATR runs about 8 pips.
Support: 157.82, 157.80, 157.55
Resistance: 158.08, 158.18, 158.25
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.80 asian low breaks the Asian range and exposes yesterday's 157.55 swing low
M15 close above the falling trendline and the 158.08 london high reopens the 158.18 asian high and 158.25 prior high
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4% m/m) lands early in NY session and could break the compression
11:01 UTC
Sideways, drifting lower inside the Asian range · RSI 47 · price 157.902
Lower highs since 158.08 against a flat 157.80–157.82 base.
The Warsh headline spike to 158.07 at 03:30 UTC faded to the 157.80 asian low as yen-positive BoJ talk and softer yields weighed. London has printed lower highs from the 158.08 london high, with the psych 158.00 capping. Price is pressing a flat 157.82 london low base near the session's mid-to-late stage.
Support: 157.82, 157.80, 157.55
Resistance: 158.00, 158.08, 158.18
What it said to watch
M15 close below 157.80 asian low breaks the Asian range and opens the 157.55 prior ny low
Close back above the lower-highs line and psych 158.00 brings the 158.08 london high and 158.18 asian high back into play
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could shift this read during the first hours of NY
London lower highs from 158.08 pressing toward the Asian low near 157.80.
Asian range 157.80–158.18 is still intact. London stalled at a 158.08 high and has printed lower highs since, with hawkish BoJ commentary weighing and price now about 7 pips above the asian low. RSI(14) near 42 and ATR around 9 pips point to a slow grind rather than a flush.
Support: 157.80, 157.546
Resistance: 158.00, 158.079, 158.181
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.80 asian low breaks the Asian range and exposes yesterday's prior low at 157.55, near the 157.50 pivot
Reclaim of the 158.00 round number and the lower-high trendline would neutralise the London fade, with the 158.08 london high and 158.18 asian high above
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
10:31 UTC
Intraday drift lower, lower highs since London open · RSI 44 · price 157.857
London lower-high sequence pressing the London low, inside the Asian range.
USDJPY is back below the 158.00 round number after hawkish BoJ comments. London has printed lower highs since the 158.08 London high rejection. Price is mid-session, pressing the London low at 157.83, with the Asian low at 157.80 just beneath; RSI(14) is neutral near 44 and ATR is about 9 pips.
Support: 157.834, 157.796, 157.546
Resistance: 158.00, 158.079, 158.181
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 157.80 Asian low breaks the Asian range and exposes the 157.55 prior low, near the 157.50 pivot
A close back above the 158.00 round number breaks the lower-highs line; a move through the 158.08 London high reopens the 158.18 Asian high
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) during NY hours could materially shift this read
10:16 UTC
Sideways after Asia dip, compressing · RSI 51 · price 157.933
Lower highs and higher lows inside the Asian range, mid-London.
USDJPY slipped under 158.00 to the 157.80 Asian low after Warsh's non-committal remarks and hawkish BoJ talk. London has built a tight 157.90–158.08 box between the Asian low and Asian high at 158.18. Lower highs and higher lows are squeezing price near 157.93, with RSI(14) flat at 51 and ATR around 9.5 pips.
Support: 157.90, 157.80, 157.55
Resistance: 158.08, 158.18, 158.25
What it said to watch
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC, the first hour of NY, could break the London range
M15 close below the 157.90 london low exposes the 157.80 asian low, then the 157.55 prior low from Thursday's post-PPI dip
Close above the 158.08 london high breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 158.18 asian high and 158.25 prior high back in view
Failure to hold the higher-lows line resolves the compression lower
London compressing inside Asian range, rising lows vs lower highs.
USD/JPY faded from the 158.18 Asian high to the 157.80 Asian low as Treasury yields eased and BoJ speakers leaned hawkish. London has compressed between the 157.90 London low and the 158.08 London high, with rising lows against lower highs. Price is pinned at the EMA50 near 157.98, RSI(14) is neutral at 56 and ATR runs about 10 pips.
Support: 157.90, 157.80, 157.55
Resistance: 158.08, 158.18, 158.25
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.90 london low breaks the rising lows and exposes the 157.80 asian low
Loss of 157.80 opens the prior low at 157.55, just above the 157.50 pivot
M15 close above the 158.08 london high breaks the lower highs, putting the 158.18 asian high and the 158.25 prior high in play
US Industrial Production and import prices at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
09:31 UTC
Sideways, range compressing · RSI 54 · price 157.943
Lower highs and higher lows inside the 157.80–158.18 Asian range.
USD/JPY slid from the 158.18 asian high to the 157.80 asian low after hawkish BoJ comments from Koeda, with falling US yields keeping USD heavy. London has stayed inside that range, printing lower highs from 158.08 and higher lows from 157.83. Price sits near 157.95, flat on EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral at 54 and ATR(14) about 10 pips.
Support: 157.83, 157.80, 157.55
Resistance: 158.08, 158.18, 158.25
What it said to watch
M15 close above the london high at 158.08 breaks the lower highs and opens the path to the asian high at 158.18, then the prior high at 158.25
Failure to hold the london low at 157.83 and the asian low at 157.80 breaks the higher lows and exposes the us data low at 157.55, just above the 157.50 pivot
US Industrial Production and import prices at 13:15 UTC (16:15 broker) could break the compression
Inside Asian range; higher lows through London, highs flattening near 158.08.
London is trading inside the Asian range (157.80–158.18). Price has retraced the slide that followed Koeda's hawkish BoJ remarks back into the 50–61.8% fib zone near 158.00–158.03. Rising lows have held since the London open, with the london high at 158.08 capping so far; RSI(14) is neutral near 58.
Support: 157.92, 157.796, 157.546
Resistance: 158.079, 158.181, 158.245
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.08 london high puts the 158.18 asian high and the 158.25 prior high back in play
Break of the rising lows and the 157.92 london low reopens the 157.80 asian low
Prior low at 157.55 sits just above the 157.50 pivot that the market_context digest flags
US Industrial Production and import prices at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read, given US yields are the dominant USD driver
09:02 UTC
Range-bound, London recovering off Asian low · RSI 58 · price 158.016
Inside Asian range 157.80–158.18; higher lows in London, lower highs since Thursday.
Asia faded from the 158.18 Asian high to a double bottom at the 157.80 Asian low as falling UST yields kept USD heavy. London has since printed higher lows up to 157.92 and stalled at the 158.08 London high, with price now holding just above the 61.8% retracement of the Asian move. RSI(14) is at 58, mid-range.
Support: 157.92, 157.80, 157.546
Resistance: 158.08, 158.18, 158.245
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.08 London high opens a retest of the 158.18 Asian high; a break there puts the 158.245 Thursday prior high in play
Loss of the 157.92 higher low breaks the London trendline and returns focus to the 157.80 Asian low
Break below 157.80 exposes the 157.546 Thu NY low near the 157.50 range floor
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain off a 157.80 double bottom, testing session high.
Falling UST yields and BoJ hike talk dragged USD/JPY from the 158.18 Asian high to a 157.80 Asian low double bottom. About an hour into the London session, a rising-lows chain has reclaimed 158.00 and is pressing the 61.8% retracement of the Asian drop near 158.03, just under the 158.08 session high.
Support: 157.95, 157.83, 157.80
Resistance: 158.08, 158.18, 158.25
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.08 session high opens the 158.18 Asian high, then the 158.25 prior high
Break of the rising-lows trendline and the 157.95 swing low would undercut the London recovery; below the 157.83 London low, the 157.80 Asian low comes back into play
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read during NY hours
Higher lows off Asian low, testing 61.8% of Asian decline.
Asia faded from the 158.18 asian high to a 157.80 asian low as the softer USD tone weighed, and Thursday's prior high at 158.245 still caps the range. London open has built higher lows (157.80, 157.83, 157.89 swing low) into a 158.06 london high. Price is sitting at the 61.8% retracement of the Asian decline, with RSI(14) near 61 and ATR around 9 pips.
Support: 157.894, 157.796, 157.546
Resistance: 158.063, 158.181, 158.245
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.18 asian high puts the 158.15–158.20 cap and 158.245 prior high back in play
Rejection at the 158.06 london high and a break of the 157.89 swing low reopens the 157.80 asian low base
Loss of the 157.80 asian low exposes Thursday's 157.55 prior low near the 157.50 range floor
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Escalation in MoF or US Treasury yen rhetoric could drive sharp moves through the range
08:01 UTC
Recovering from Asian low, testing 158.00 · RSI 59 · price 157.996
Asian range 157.80–158.18; double bottom at the low, London pushing the upper half.
The Asian low at 157.80 held twice. Early London then lifted price through the descending line off the 158.18 Asian high to a 158.06 London high. Price is pinned near 158.00, at the 50% of the Asian retracement and on the EMA50, as lower US yields and Treasury/BoJ yen rhetoric keep the 158.15–158.20 area capped.
Support: 157.80, 157.546
Resistance: 158.063, 158.181, 158.245
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.06 london high opens the 158.18 asian high and the 158.245 prior high
Slip back under the descending line near 157.93 neutralises the breakout
Loss of the 157.80 asian low voids the double bottom and exposes the 157.55 prior low
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
07:31 UTC
Asian decline basing, London rebound · RSI 56 · price 157.966
Double low at 157.80, higher lows into London open.
Asia faded from the 158.18 asian high after Fed Chair Warsh offered no rate clues and US Treasury yen comments weighed, with the slide basing twice at the 157.80 asian low. The London open has lifted price through the 157.94 base top and the Asia downtrend line, back to the 158.00 round number at the 50% retracement of the Asian drop. RSI(14) is near 56.
Support: 157.892, 157.796, 157.546
Resistance: 158.00, 158.074, 158.181
What it said to watch
Close above the 158.00 round number exposes the 158.07 warsh high, then the 158.18 asian high (the 158.15–158.20 cap)
Close back below the 157.89 higher low negates the Asia downtrend line break
Break of the 157.80 asian low reopens the 157.55 prior low near the 157.50 range floor
MoF/BoJ yen rhetoric or a further slide in US yields could shift this read; US Industrial Production due 13:15 UTC
07:16 UTC
Down from Asian high, now flat · RSI 47 · price 157.919
Lower highs since 158.18, tight 157.80–157.97 range.
Asia was rejected at the 158.18 Asian high. The pair then slid after Warsh's 03:30 UTC remarks gave nothing on rates, with the US Treasury's yen comments adding weight. Since then price has held a tight range between the 157.80 session low and the 157.97 range top, with the low tested twice. London open trades just under the 38.2% retrace of the Asian high-to-low drop, RSI(14) neutral near 47.
Support: 157.80, 157.546
Resistance: 157.967, 158.074, 158.181
What it said to watch
M15 close above 157.97 range top breaks the lower-high chain and opens the 158.07 warsh spike, then 158.18 Asian high
Failure to hold the 157.80 session low exposes the 157.55 ny low, just above the 157.50 multi-week floor
US Industrial Production 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%); strong US prints have been faded this week
Any fresh MoF/BoJ yen rhetoric could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 158.18 Asian high, flat base at 157.80 into London open.
Asia session rejected the 158.18 Asian high, matching the post-PPI spike area, and has printed a lower-high chain into the London open as the dollar stays heavy on lower yields. The Asian low at 157.80 held twice, and price sits just under EMA20 with RSI(14) near 43. The descending trendline caps near the 157.94 lower high.
Support: 157.80, 157.55
Resistance: 157.94, 158.07, 158.18
What it said to watch
M15 close below 157.80 asian low breaks the flat base and exposes the 157.55 prior low ahead of the 157.50 range floor
Close above the 157.94 lower high and descending trendline neutralises the lower-high chain; 158.07 swing high lines up with the 61.8% fib
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4% m/m) could materially shift this read
06:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, bouncing off Asian low · RSI 49 · price 157.936
Lower highs from the 158.18 Asian high, base at 157.80, now retesting the 38.2% retrace.
USDJPY slid from the 158.18 Asian high once Warsh's remarks failed to move rate expectations, printing lower highs down to a 157.80 Asian low. Late Asia is bouncing into the 38.2% retrace near 157.94 with RSI(14) at 49, still inside yesterday's 157.55 post-PPI data low to 158.25 prior high span ahead of London open.
Support: 157.80, 157.55
Resistance: 158.07, 158.18, 158.25
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.07 lower high breaks the Asian lower-high chain and brings the 158.18 asian high back into play
Rejection at the 38.2% retrace near 157.94 keeps the descending lower-high sequence intact
Failure to hold the 157.80 asian low exposes the 157.55 data low and the 157.50 three-week range floor
US Industrial Production 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4% m/m) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia; small base above asia low.
Asia faded from the 158.181 asia high in a lower-high chain. The Warsh-hour spike to 158.074 was rejected as his IMF remarks gave no fresh hawkish signal, and price slid to a 157.796 asia low. Price is now basing just above the 61.8% retrace of the post-PPI rally (157.546–158.245) ahead of London open, under both EMAs with RSI(14) near 35.
Support: 157.796, 157.67, 157.546
Resistance: 157.903, 158.074, 158.181
What it said to watch
A break of the 157.796 asia low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 157.67 prior low.
The 157.546 ppi low sits just above the 157.50 range floor; US Treasury yen remarks make that zone sensitive.
A close above the 157.903 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and neutralises the sequence, with the 158.074 warsh high next.
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read.
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia, basing near 157.80.
Asia session has stepped lower off the 158.18 Asia high along a lower-high line. The Warsh high at 158.07 was rejected within a bar as his IMF remarks gave no hawkish signal, and price is idling at 157.86 just above the 157.80 Asia low ahead of London open, with RSI(14) near 37. Thursday's PPI low at 157.55 marks the bottom of the post-data swing that ran to the 158.25 NY high.
Support: 157.796, 157.546
Resistance: 158.074, 158.181, 158.245
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.07 Warsh high breaks the lower-high line and the Asia downtrend read
Failure to hold the 157.80 Asia low exposes the 157.55 PPI low and the 157.50 pivot flagged by the yen/Treasury commentary
Asia high 158.18 and NY high 158.25 remain the upper bound of the 24h range; the 50% retrace of the Asia leg sits near 157.99
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC during NY session could materially shift this read
05:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend through Asia, below both EMAs · RSI 38 · price 157.858
Lower highs and lower lows off the 158.18 Asian high.
Yesterday's PPI whipsaw ran to a 157.55 data low before NY recovered to a 158.25 prior high. The Asia session has since faded from the 158.18 Asian high in a lower-high sequence, consistent with the soft-dollar, falling-yield backdrop. Price is late in Tokyo hours, hovering just above the 157.80 session low ahead of London open, with RSI(14) near 38.
Support: 157.796, 157.672, 157.546
Resistance: 158.074, 158.181, 158.245
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 157.80 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 157.67 London low
M15 close above the 158.07 lower high breaks the Asia trendline and invalidates the sequence
157.55 data low sits just above the 157.50 range floor, where US Treasury yen comments could amplify a break
Asian high 158.18 and prior high 158.25 cap the 158.00–158.20 relief zone
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could materially shift this read
05:16 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 31 · price 157.822
LH/LL sequence from 158.18 Asian high, pressing session low.
Late Asia session has stepped down from the 158.18 Asian high in a lower-high chain (158.07, 157.94), with price at 157.82, just above the 157.80 Asian low. The decline follows the USD fade after hot US PPI, as falling Treasury yields capped the post-data bounce. RSI(14) near 31 is soft but not extreme.
Support: 157.796, 157.672, 157.546
Resistance: 157.94, 158.074, 158.181
What it said to watch
Break of the 157.80 Asian low exposes the 157.67 prior lows and the 157.55 post-PPI low
M15 close above the 157.94 lower high and the 158.07 trendline breaks the lower-high sequence
London open could extend or reject the Asian range
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could shift this read; the digest flags 157.50 as pivotal
05:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 32 · price 157.822
LH/LL chain from 158.18 Asia high, price pressing session low.
USD/JPY has printed lower highs and lower lows through the Asia session. It slid from the 158.18 Asia high to a 157.80 session low under a descending trendline, as softer yields and Browne's yen comments weigh on USD. Price is below the 158 pivot with RSI(14) near 32, and the 157.94 lower high is the nearest cap.
Support: 157.796, 157.672, 157.546
Resistance: 157.94, 158.00, 158.181
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 157.94 lower high and the 158 pivot breaks the lower-high chain and the descending trendline
Failure to hold the 157.80 session low exposes the prior lows near 157.67, then the ppi low at 157.55 from yesterday's US data spike
Asia leg fib: a rebound stalling below 61.8% (~158.03) keeps the downtrend structure intact
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
04:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, late Asia session · RSI 36 · price 157.907
Lower highs and lower lows off the 158.18 Asian high.
Asia session faded from the 158.18 Asian high to a 157.83 session low, with each lower high sitting below the last as Browne's yen remarks and softer US yields weighed. Price is below both EMAs and near the 50% retrace of the 157.55–158.25 rally that followed the post-PPI whipsaw.
Support: 157.83, 157.55
Resistance: 158.07, 158.18, 158.25
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.83 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 157.55 prior low
Close above the 158.07 lower high breaks the descending sequence and reopens the 158.18 Asian high and 158.25 prior high
London open in under 3h is likely to test the Asian range edges
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
04:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since NY high · RSI 35 · price 157.887
Lower highs and lower lows from 158.245; fresh session low on Warsh.
USD/JPY has carved lower highs since the 158.245 NY high, and the Warsh speech knocked it from 158.074 (warsh high) to a 157.832 session low late in the Asia session, below the earlier 158.181 asia high range. Price now sits near the 50% fib of the 157.546–158.245 post-PPI leg, below both EMAs, with the digest pointing to falling US yields as the drag.
Support: 157.832, 157.546
Resistance: 158.074, 158.181, 158.245
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.832 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 157.546 ny low and the 157.50 range floor
Recovery through the 158.074 warsh high breaks the lower-highs sequence; 158.181 asia high sits above that
Warsh Q&A and the US yield reaction could materially shift this read before London open; US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC follows
04:01 UTC
Short-term down, lower highs through Asia · RSI 38 · price 157.953
Lower highs below the 158.18 double top, inside the 157.55–158.25 prior-day range.
Asia carved a double top at the 158.18 Asian high and broke the 158.06 neckline. The Warsh-speech spike to 158.07 retested that break and was rejected, extending the lower-high trendline. Price is holding near the 50% of yesterday's post-PPI rally off the 157.55 prior low, with the 157.88 session low the nearest floor.
Support: 157.88, 157.81, 157.55
Resistance: 158.07, 158.18, 158.25
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.07 warsh high breaks the lower-high trendline and neutralises the double top
Failure to hold the 157.88 session low exposes the fib 61.8% at 157.81 and the 157.55 prior low
Recovery through the 158.18 Asian high and the 158.25 prior high would reopen the top of the range
Follow-up Warsh headlines and US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
03:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs in Asia · RSI 34 · price 157.938
Asian range low broken; lower-high chain from 158.181.
Mid-Asia session, the pair slipped through the 158.00 round number and the Asian range low to a session low at 157.879, near the 50% retrace of the post-US-data leg. Highs are stepping lower from the 158.181 Asian high as falling Treasury yields weigh on USD despite Thursday's hot PPI.
Support: 157.879, 157.546
Resistance: 158.00, 158.181, 158.245
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 157.879 session low exposes the 157.546 us data low and the 61.8% retrace at 157.81
Recovery back above the 158.00 round number puts price back inside the Asian range and weakens the break
Close above the lower-high trendline and the 158.181 Asian high reopens the 158.245 NY high
03:16 UTC
Intraday pullback inside a 157.55–158.25 range · RSI 33 · price 157.94
Asian lower highs below 158.18, session low being tested.
Asian session rejected the 158.18 asian high twice and printed lower highs since, slipping through the rollover area to a 157.88 session low. That retraces roughly half of Thursday's rally from the 157.55 data low to the 158.25 prior high, as falling yields offset the hot PPI print. RSI(14) is near 33, soft but not stretched.
Support: 157.88, 157.55
Resistance: 158.18, 158.25
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 157.88 session low exposes the 157.55 data low
Recovery above the 158.18 asian high breaks the lower-highs sequence and reopens the 158.25 prior high
Asia double top at 158.18 broken through 158.06 neckline; price testing Asia low.
Late in the Asia session, the 158.18 double top gave way. Price broke the rising Asia trendline and the 158.06 neckline, and is now pressing the 157.94 Asia low, which coincides with the 38.2% fib of the post-PPI 157.55–158.25 rally. RSI(14) sits near 38 below both EMAs as falling Treasury yields keep USD heavy into Warsh, despite the hot PPI print.
Support: 157.94, 157.75, 157.55
Resistance: 158.06, 158.18, 158.25
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.94 Asia low breaks the Asian range and opens the 157.75 post-ppi low, then the 157.55 swing low
Recovery above the 158.06 neckline negates the double top; 158.18 Asia high and 158.25 NY high sit above
Fed Chair Warsh speaks 03:30 UTC (~30 min); a hawkish or dovish lean could break either end of the 157.94–158.25 range
02:46 UTC
Sideways, mild downside drift in Asia · RSI 40 · price 158.023
Range 157.94–158.25 since NY afternoon, Asian lower highs.
The hot US PPI print whipsawed the pair from 158.19 to a 157.55 post-PPI low before a recovery to the 158.25 NY high. Since then it has held a 157.94–158.25 range. Asia slipped from the 158.18 Asian high to a 157.98 Asian low near the 38.2% retrace of the NY rally, with RSI(14) near 40 and price under both EMAs.
Support: 157.98, 157.94, 157.55
Resistance: 158.18, 158.25
What it said to watch
Warsh speaks at 03:30 UTC and could materially shift this read
A close below the 157.94 rollover low breaks the range floor and exposes the 50% retrace near 157.90, then the 157.55 post-PPI low
A reclaim of the 158.18 Asian high reopens the 158.25 NY high
02:31 UTC
Intraday pullback inside a broader range · RSI 36 · price 157.987
Asian range 158.06–158.18 broken lower, testing 38.2% of NY rally.
Late in the Asia session price slipped out of the 158.06–158.18 Asian range and lost 158.00. It now sits on the 38.2% retracement of yesterday's post-PPI NY rally (157.55–158.25), below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 36. The rollover low at 157.94 is the nearest shelf, with the post-PPI low around 157.75 below, as falling US yields keep the post-data USD bounce from sticking.
Support: 157.94, 157.75, 157.55
Resistance: 158.06, 158.18, 158.245
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh at 03:30 UTC (~1h) could materially shift this read; ATR is only ~6 pips going in
M15 close back inside the Asian range above the 158.06 asian low negates the range break
Failure at the 157.94 rollover low exposes the 50–61.8% NY rally fib zone (157.90–157.81) and the 157.75 post-PPI low
157.55 day low is the floor of yesterday's NY swing; the 158.18 asian high and 158.245 prior high cap the upside
02:16 UTC
Sideways, mildly heavy into the Asian range floor · RSI 41 · price 158.053
Tight Asia session range 158.04–158.18 inside yesterday's 157.55–158.25 post-data range.
Price is pressing the asian low at 158.04 after two rejections at the 158.18 asian high, with RSI(14) near 41 and EMAs flattening overhead. The hot PPI spike to 158.19 reversed to a 157.55 ny low before falling yields gave way to a recovery to the 158.25 ny high. The 157.94 rollover low sits just above the fib 38.2% of that recovery.
Support: 158.04, 157.94, 157.55
Resistance: 158.18, 158.245
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.04 asian low exposes the 157.94 rollover low and fib 38.2% zone
Close above the 158.18 asian high reopens the 158.245 ny high
Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC (~1h15m) could materially shift this read; loss of the 157.55 ny low puts the 157.50 range floor in play
02:01 UTC
Sideways, compressing below NY high · RSI 58 · price 158.142
Tight Asian range 158.04–158.18 after post-PPI whipsaw; higher lows since rollover.
The post-PPI whipsaw from the 157.546 post-ppi low to the 158.245 ny high faded into a rollover low at 157.936, about 44% of the NY leg on the fib, as the USD failed to hold its data gains on falling yields. Asia session has carried higher lows off that dip, and price is now pinned inside a 14-pip Asian range (158.04 asian low to 158.18 asian high). RSI near 58 and ATR around 6 pips reflect compression ahead of the Warsh speech.
Support: 158.04, 157.936, 157.546
Resistance: 158.181, 158.245
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC (~1.5h) could materially shift this read and break the Asian range
An M15 close above the 158.18 asian high exposes the 158.245 ny high
Failure to hold the 158.04 asian low and the asia rising lows line puts the 157.936 rollover low back in play
A move below 157.936 reopens the 157.546 post-ppi low, near the 157.50 range floor cited in the yen digest
01:46 UTC
Mild upswing, stalling below NY high · RSI 57 · price 158.121
Higher lows from 157.55, tight Asian range 158.06–158.18.
The hot US PPI print whipsawed the pair from 158.19 to a post-PPI low at 157.55. NY then recovered to a 158.245 high as the data failed to hold dollar losses, and the pullback held at the 157.94 rollover low near the 44% fib retracement. The early Asia session is compressing between the Asian low at 158.06 and the Asian high at 158.18, with a rising lows line intact and RSI(14) neutral near 57.
Support: 158.06, 157.94, 157.55
Resistance: 158.18, 158.245
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC, about 1h45m away, could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 158.245 NY high breaks the Asian range and extends the higher-high sequence
Loss of the 158.06 Asian low and the rising lows line exposes the 157.94 rollover low
Break below the 157.94 rollover low negates the higher-low structure and puts the 157.55 post-PPI low back in view
01:31 UTC
Recovering intraday, compressing below NY high · RSI 61 · price 158.13
Asia higher lows under a flat 158.18 cap.
The US PPI release whipsawed the pair down to the 157.55 ppi low before NY hours reversed it to a 158.245 high, despite the softer USD tone. Asia has built rising lows off the 157.94 rollover low, but the asia high at 158.18 has capped twice, leaving a tight 158.04–158.18 Asian range well above the 50% retrace of the PPI swing.
Support: 158.06, 157.94, 157.55
Resistance: 158.18, 158.245
What it said to watch
Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC (~2h) is the next catalyst for a break of the Asian range
An M15 close above the 158.245 ny high clears the session-high cap
A loss of the 158.06 asia low breaks the Asia rising-lows trendline and exposes the 157.94 rollover low
A move back below the 157.55 ppi low brings the 157.50 range floor into play
Higher lows off the 157.936 rollover low, capped under 158.18–158.25.
The US PPI spike to 158.185 reversed to a 157.546 day low as the dollar faded hot data on softer yields, and the NY rally then rebuilt to a 158.245 NY high. Asia session has climbed from the 157.936 rollover low on an asia trendline of higher lows, holding the 158.059 swing low and now sitting just under the 158.181 Asia high.
Support: 158.059, 157.936, 157.546
Resistance: 158.181, 158.245
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh speaks at 03:30 UTC (~2h): a major catalyst that could reset this read
M15 close above the 158.245 NY high extends the higher-high chain beyond yesterday's range
Close below the 158.059 swing low breaks the asia trendline
Loss of the 157.936 rollover low erases the Asia recovery and puts the 157.546 day low back in view
01:02 UTC
Recovering from the post-data dip, now compressing · RSI 56 · price 158.147
Lower highs from 158.25, higher lows from 157.94; narrowing band.
Early Asia session is grinding inside a narrowing pennant, with lower highs from the 158.25 NY high and higher lows off the 157.94 rollover low. The US PPI whipsaw to the 157.55 data low was fully reclaimed despite softer US yields, and the rollover low held near the 38.2% of the NY rally fib.
Support: 158.06, 157.94, 157.55
Resistance: 158.18, 158.25
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.25 ny high breaks the pennant top; 158.18 asia high is the first cap
Loss of the 158.06 swing low and the rising support line exposes the 157.94 rollover low
Break of the 157.94 rollover low reopens the 157.55 data low, near the 157.50 range floor
Fed Chair Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC (~2.5h) could materially shift this read
00:46 UTC
Intraday recovery, grinding higher in Asia · RSI 67 · price 158.162
Higher lows off the rollover low, pressing the Asia high below the NY high.
The post-PPI whipsaw (data low 157.55, NY high 158.25) has settled into a range. The 157.94 rollover low held inside the 38.2–50% zone of the post-data fib. Early Asia has built a higher-low chain along rising support, and price is now testing the 158.18 Asia high with ATR compressed near 6 pips ahead of Warsh.
Support: 158.037, 157.936, 157.546
Resistance: 158.181, 158.245
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh at 03:30 UTC (~3h) could materially shift this read
An M15 close above the 158.25 NY high breaks the post-data range top
Loss of the 158.04 higher low breaks Asia rising support; below the 157.94 rollover low, the 157.55 data low comes back into view
00:31 UTC
Intraday higher lows, capped below NY high · RSI 65 · price 158.156
Asia session higher-low chain inside the 157.94–158.25 post-NY range.
The hot PPI spike to 158.19 faded to 157.55 on falling US yields before NY recovered to the 158.25 NY high. The Asia session has built higher lows from the 157.94 session low through the 158.04 swing low and 158.09 micro HL, and is now pressing the 158.18–158.19 session high ahead of Warsh.
Support: 158.09, 158.04, 157.94
Resistance: 158.19, 158.25
What it said to watch
Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a hawkish lean would test the yields-led cap
M15 close above the 158.25 NY high breaks the post-NY range top
Loss of the 158.04 swing low and the Asia rising line ends the higher-low chain
Break below the 157.94 session low exposes the 50% fib of the NY rally near 157.90
00:16 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows in Asia · RSI 60 · price 158.161
Higher lows off 157.936, pressing prior-high zone.
The US PPI and retail sales release at 12:30 UTC whipsawed the pair to 157.546. NY then rallied to a 158.245 NY high, and the late-session pullback held the 157.936 swing low near the 38.2% retracement despite the yield-led USD softness in the digest. The Asia session is printing higher lows from there, with the 158.037 Asia HL in place, and is retesting the 158.19–158.21 prior high zone with RSI(14) near 60.
Support: 158.037, 157.936, 157.813
Resistance: 158.212, 158.245, 158.50
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read in either direction
M15 close above the 158.245 NY high extends the higher-high chain toward the 158.50 round number
Rejection at the 158.212 prior high plus a break of the 158.037 Asia HL negates the higher-low sequence
Loss of the 157.936 swing low exposes the fib 61.8 at 157.813
00:01 UTC
Recovering intraday, higher lows in early Asia · RSI 57 · price 158.14
Post-PPI V-recovery from 157.55 into a 157.94–158.25 holding range; Asia higher-low chain.
USD/JPY dipped to a 157.55 day low after the hot PPI print as yields slid, then rallied to the 158.25 day high in NY. The rollover low at 157.94 held inside the 38.2–50% fib of that rally. Early Asia is printing higher lows along the rising Asia trendline and pressing the 158.15 session high; ATR around 5 pips.
Support: 158.04, 157.94, 157.55
Resistance: 158.15, 158.25, 158.50
What it said to watch
Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC (~3.5h) could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 158.25 day high opens the 200d sma area near 158.50
Loss of the 158.04 swing low breaks the Asia trendline and exposes the 157.94 rollover low
Break below the rollover low puts the 157.55 day low back in play