Lower highs from 158.95 against higher lows from 157.55 since Thursday.
USD/JPY was rejected at Wednesday's 158.95 week high during NY hours. It slid through Thursday's Asia session and printed the 157.55 week low in the NY PPI whipsaw, as lower US yields outweighed the hot data. Since then it has compressed into a 157.55–158.34 band, with Friday's NY rebound capped at the fri high of 158.34, between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the week's drop. Price sits on flat EMA(20) and EMA(50) near 158.00 with RSI(14) around 54, a neutral rotational read into the weekend.
Support: 158.00, 157.69, 157.55
Resistance: 158.34, 158.41, 158.95
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 157.69 fri low breaks the higher lows line and exposes the 157.55 week low and the 157.50 pivot
Close above the 158.34 fri high clears the lower highs line and the 61.8% fib at 158.41, opening a path back toward the 158.95 week high
Repeated H1 closes back under EMA(20) at 158.00 keep the pair rotating in the lower half of the band
Weekend IMF meetings and Fed-speak could shift the read before Monday's Asia session
17:02 UTC
Range-bound, recovering off the week low · RSI 60 · price 158.258
157.55–158.95 range; higher low Friday, price at the 50% retrace of the week's drop.
The week high at 158.95 was set in Wednesday's NY session and drew a sharp rejection. The pair slid to a 157.55 week low after Thursday's hot US data, as lower US yields and AI-related dollar selling outweighed the PPI beat. A second dip on Friday held at 157.69, a higher low, and the NY session has since lifted price back through 158.00 and the ema20 to a 158.34 session high. That sits right at the 50% retracement of the week's drop, with RSI(14) near 60.
Support: 158.00, 157.69, 157.55
Resistance: 158.34, 158.51, 158.95
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.34 session high and the 158.51 prior high would extend the retracement toward the 158.95 week high, where intervention rhetoric has capped the topside
Slip back below 158.00 (ema20, psych) and the 157.69 higher low returns focus to the 157.55 week low and the 157.50 pivot
US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC and weekend IMF headlines could shift the read into the weekly close
15:02 UTC
Downtrend from week high, now compressing · RSI 45 · price 157.935
Lower highs from 158.95 against a higher low at 157.69.
USD/JPY has unwound Wednesday's NY-session spike to the 158.95 week high, which drew a rejection, and slid about 140 pips into Thursday's 157.55 week low as lower US yields outweighed hot PPI and retail sales. Since then price has compressed between lower highs at 158.25 (the 50% retracement of the week drop) and the 158.18 Friday high, and a Friday low at 157.69 that sits above Thursday's low, with demand stepping in on both NY-hours dips. Price is pinned at EMA(20) near 157.95, RSI(14) is around 45 and ATR(14) has contracted to roughly 18 pips.
Support: 157.69, 157.55
Resistance: 158.18, 158.25, 158.95
What it said to watch
H1 close above the lower highs line and 158.25 (50% of the week drop) breaks the consolidation to the upside; 158.95 week high remains the intervention-sensitive cap
Failure to hold the 157.69 friday low and the higher lows line turns attention to the 157.55 week low and the 157.50 pivot
Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC and weekend IMF or Fed remarks could shift the read into Monday's open
Lower highs since Wednesday's 158.95 spike, pressing the range floor.
Wednesday's NY-session spike to the 158.95 week high failed, and the pair has printed lower highs since. Thursday's rebound off the 157.55 week low after the hot US PPI stalled at 158.22, and Friday's bounce was capped at the 158.09 Fri high, near the 38.2% retracement of the decline. Broad USD weakness on falling Treasury yields pushed price below EMA(20) and EMA(50) in the first hour of NY, taking out Friday's 157.75 low with RSI(14) near 35.
Support: 157.546, 157.50
Resistance: 158.092, 158.946
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 157.55 week low exposes the 157.50 pivot, the floor of the three-week range that held twice this week
H1 close back above EMA(20) and the 158.09 Fri high breaks the lower-highs trendline and invalidates the lower-high sequence
Weekend IMF meetings (Oct 17–18) with possible Fed-speak could materially shift this read
Japan Sep National CPI on Oct 22 is the next yen catalyst against the 157.50 pivot and the 158.95 week high
Lower highs since Thursday NY, compressing above the 157.55 week low.
Wednesday's NY-session push to the 158.95 week high was rejected, and the pair unwound about 140 pips to the 157.55 week low by Thursday's NY open. Falling US yields and dovish Fed speakers outweighed hot PPI and retail sales. The rebound stalled at the 50% retracement of that drop at the 158.25 thu high. Friday has since compressed into a 157.80–158.18 band, with lower highs printing since Thursday's NY session. Price is pinned between the ema20 near 157.99 and EMA50 near 158.06, with RSI(14) near 49 reflecting a neutral consolidation inside the 157.55–158.95 week range.
Support: 157.99, 157.80, 157.55
Resistance: 158.25, 158.41, 158.95
What it said to watch
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4% m/m) lands inside the current bar and could materially shift this read
H1 close above the lower highs line and the 158.25 thu high exposes the fib 61.8 retracement at 158.41
Failure to hold the friday low at 157.80 reopens the 157.55 week low; a break there extends the lower-low sequence from 158.95
12:02 UTC
Corrective down from Wednesday high, momentum stalled · RSI 47 · price 158.014
Contracting range: lower highs from 158.25, higher lows from 157.55.
Wednesday's NY-session rejection at the 158.95 week high gave way to selling through Thursday's Asia session. The post-PPI spike to 158.19 then faded into a 157.55 week low as falling US yields kept the USD offered. Since then H1 has compressed between lower highs capped at the thu high of 158.25, the 50% retracement of the drop, and higher lows at the fri low of 157.80. Price is pinned at the EMA20 near 157.97 and below the EMA50 near 158.06, and RSI(14) is stuck in the mid-40s.
Support: 157.97, 157.80, 157.55
Resistance: 158.08, 158.25, 158.95
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 38.2% fib at 158.08 and the lower-highs line opens a retest of the thu high at 158.25
Failure to hold the fri low at 157.80 breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 157.55 week low and the 157.50 range floor
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC today could materially shift this read
Only a recovery through the 158.95 week high would negate the Wednesday rejection
Lower highs since 158.95 compressing above a 157.55 floor.
Wednesday's rejection at the 158.95 week high started a run of lower highs. The thu high at 158.25 stalled exactly at the 50% retracement of the Wed–Thu drop, and the week low at 157.55 absorbed the NY-session fade of the hot US PPI and retail data. Friday's Asia slip under 158.00 on hawkish BoJ commentary held the fri low at 157.80; price now sits just below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 46, compressing beneath the lower-highs line.
Support: 157.80, 157.55
Resistance: 158.08, 158.25, 158.95
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.08 fri high (38.2% of the Wed–Thu drop) breaks the lower-highs line
Failure to hold the 157.80 fri low exposes the 157.55 week low and the 157.50 range pivot
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (16:15 broker) could materially shift this read; recent US beats have been faded
Recovery through the 158.25 thu high reopens the path toward the 158.95 week high
10:02 UTC
Sideways to soft, lower highs since Wednesday · RSI 47 · price 158.015
Contracting range: lower highs from 158.95, higher lows from 157.55.
USD/JPY has printed lower highs since the NY-session rejection at the 158.95 week high on Wednesday, as falling US yields undercut the dollar. Thursday's spike around the US data hit the 157.55 week low, just above the 157.50 pivot. It then rebounded to 158.25, Thursday's high, which is also the 50% retracement of the Wednesday–Thursday drop, before stalling. A higher low formed at 157.80 (friday low) during Asia after hawkish BoJ commentary. Price is now pinned on EMA(20) near 157.98 and under the ema50 / 38.2% confluence at 158.08, with RSI(14) neutral near 47 as the lower-highs and higher-lows lines converge.
Support: 157.80, 157.55
Resistance: 158.08, 158.25, 158.95
What it said to watch
H1 close above 158.08 (ema50, 38.2% retracement) and then the 158.25 thu high would break the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 157.80 friday low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 157.55 week low and 157.50 pivot
US Industrial Production and Import Prices at 13:15 UTC during NY hours could materially shift this read
A move back toward the 158.95 week high would put the Wednesday rejection zone back in play
Coiling between 157.55 and 158.95, higher lows vs lower highs.
Wednesday's NY spike stalled twice at the 158.95 week high. The pullback dipped below Thursday's Asia low to a 157.55 week low after the hot PPI, then reversed within the hour, a false break inside the 157.50–159.00 range. Since then highs have stepped down from 158.25 (50% fib) to 158.18 to 158.08, while Friday's low at 157.80 extends a line of higher lows. Price is coiling on EMA(20) near 157.98, with the 38.2% retracement and EMA(50) capping at 158.08 and RSI(14) flat around 46. Falling US yields keep USD heavy against a BoJ hawkish chorus that the market has largely priced.
Support: 157.80, 157.55
Resistance: 158.08, 158.25, 158.95
What it said to watch
H1 close above 158.25 (50% fib, Thursday high) breaks the lower-highs sequence and reopens the 158.95 week high
Failure to hold the Friday low at 157.80 and the higher-lows line puts the 157.55 week low and the 157.50 range floor back in play
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could materially shift this read; a soft print alongside falling yields presses the range floor
Repeated rejection at the 38.2%/ema50 area at 158.08 keeps the coil intact into a thin Friday NY session
Lower highs from 158.95; 157.55–158.25 range since Thursday.
Wednesday's NY-session spike to the 158.95 week high met rejection and was fully unwound by Thursday's Asia session. Since then price has compressed between the 157.55 week low, printed in Thursday's PPI whipsaw, and 158.25, the 50% fib of that drop, with Friday's Asia high at 158.18 extending the lower-highs sequence as falling US yields and Treasury yen comments weigh. Price is pinned at the EMA(20) near 157.98 and below the EMA(50), with RSI(14) at 47 in neutral territory.
Support: 157.98, 157.80, 157.55
Resistance: 158.18, 158.25, 158.95
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 158.25 (50% fib) breaks the lower-highs trendline and reopens the 158.95 week high
Failure to hold the 157.80 friday low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 157.55 week low and 157.50 range floor
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Escalating MoF or US Treasury yen rhetoric could force a break of the week low
Lower highs from 158.95 inside the 157.55–158.95 weekly range.
Wednesday's NY-session push to the 158.95 week high was rejected. Thursday's selling ran through Asia and again around the US PPI release to a 157.55 week low, as falling Treasury yields outweighed the hot data. The bounce stalled at the 50% fib of that drop near 158.25, and Friday's Asian session faded from the 158.18 friday high to a 157.80 friday low. That leaves a lower-high sequence, with price just under EMA(20) near 157.98 and RSI(14) in the mid-40s.
Support: 157.80, 157.55, 157.50
Resistance: 158.18, 158.25, 158.95
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 157.55 week low exposes the 157.50 range floor that has held for three weeks
A recovery above the 158.18 friday high and the 50% fib at 158.25 breaks the lower-highs trendline
Holding the 157.80 friday low keeps price boxed between that level and EMA(20) near 157.98
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC today could materially shift this read; hot US data has faded this week
Further US Treasury or MoF commentary on the yen could accelerate a test of the range floor
Lower highs since Wednesday's 158.95 rejection; 157.55–158.25 range since Thursday.
Wednesday's NY-session push to the 158.95 week high was rejected short of 159.00, and price has printed lower highs since, with the Thursday bounce off the 157.55 week low stalling at the 158.25 lower high, the 50% retracement of that drop. That rebound came on the hot US PPI print but faded during Friday's Asia session after Warsh offered no new rate signal, leaving price under the ema20 near 157.97 and testing the 157.80 asia low. RSI(14) near 39 sits mid-to-low with no divergence on the two tests of 157.55.
Support: 157.80, 157.55
Resistance: 157.97, 158.25, 158.95
What it said to watch
H1 close below 157.55 week low breaks the range floor and confirms a lower-low below the 157.50 pivot
Recovery above the ema20 and a close through the 158.25 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 157.80 asia low puts the higher-low line from Thursday's low under pressure
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC and Treasury yields could materially shift this read
Escalation in US Treasury or MoF yen-level rhetoric adds pressure on the 157.50 floor
05:02 UTC
Downtrend since Wednesday's peak, ranging above the week low · RSI 39 · price 157.822
Lower highs from 158.95; 157.55–158.25 range since Thursday.
Wednesday's NY-session spike to the 158.95 week high met rejection, and the pair has printed lower highs since as Treasury yields slid and US Treasury's Browne signalled the yen level 'must change'. Thursday's hot PPI whipsawed price to the 157.55 week low before a rebound stalled at the thu high of 158.25, the 50% retracement of the week's decline. Friday's Asia high near 158.18 faded back under the ema20 near 158.00, and price now sits at the session low with RSI(14) sub-40.
Support: 157.80, 157.55
Resistance: 158.00, 158.25, 158.95
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 157.55 week low and 157.50 breaks the range floor that has held twice this week
Reclaim of the ema20 near 158.00 and a close above the 158.25 thu high (50% fib) would break the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 157.80 session low puts the week low back in play
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Further US Treasury or Fed commentary on the yen at the IMF meetings
158.95 week high remains the ceiling for the lower-highs line
157.55–158.95 weekly range; failed upside test Wed, sub-157.58 low reclaimed Thu, now drifting under EMA20.
Wednesday's NY session push to the 158.95 week high stalled short of 159.00 and unwound through Thursday's Asia session as US yields reversed. Thursday's PPI-driven NY spike broke briefly to a 157.55 week low before reclaiming the 157.58 Asian-session low, and the rebound stalled at the 158.25 thu high, the 50% retracement of the week's decline. Since then the lower highs have continued and price has slipped back under EMA20 near 158.00, with the Friday asia low at 157.83 the nearest floor and RSI(14) sitting in the mid-40s.
Support: 157.83, 157.55
Resistance: 158.00, 158.25, 158.95
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh's speech this session is the main driver for US yields and could materially shift this read
An H1 close below the 157.55 week low would turn Thursday's false break into a range break toward the 157.50 floor
A close back above the 158.25 thu high (50% fib) breaks the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 157.83 asia low extends the drift back into Thursday's lows
Any return toward the 158.95 week high brings MoF intervention rhetoric near 159.00 into play
03:02 UTC
Downtrend from Wednesday high, base forming · RSI 47 · price 157.942
Lower highs pressing into a flat 157.55 base.
Wednesday's NY-session spike was rejected at the 158.95 week high just shy of 159.00. Lower highs have followed since, with falling Treasury yields overriding the hot PPI print to drag price to a 157.55 week low on Thursday. The post-PPI rebound stalled at 158.25, the 50% fib of the 158.95–157.55 drop. Friday's Asia session has faded from the 158.18 asia high back below EMA(20), leaving price compressed between the descending trendline and the week low.
Support: 157.88, 157.55
Resistance: 158.18, 158.25, 158.95
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 157.88 asia low puts the 157.55 week low back in play
Break of the 157.55 week low would challenge the 157.50 floor of the three-week range
Close above 158.25 (50% fib) breaks the descending trendline and the lower-high sequence
Fed Chair Warsh at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read; 158.95 week high sits beneath 159.00 intervention-risk territory
02:02 UTC
Pullback from week high, stalling near range floor · RSI 49 · price 158.043
Lower high at 158.95, double bottom at 157.55–157.58, compressing 157.94–158.25.
USD/JPY has unwound Wednesday's NY-session push to the 158.95 week high and slid to 157.55. The hot PPI print failed to hold dollar gains as Treasury yields fell. Thursday's two probes toward the range floor, 157.58 in Asia and 157.55 in NY, both drew bounces and formed a double bottom. Since then price has compressed between the 157.94 Asian low and the 158.25 post-PPI high, which sits at the 50% retracement of the week's drop. Price is sitting on EMA(20), below EMA(50), with RSI(14) at 49, a neutral pause after the selloff.
Support: 157.94, 157.55
Resistance: 158.25, 158.47, 158.95
What it said to watch
H1 close above 158.25 post-PPI high (50% retrace) opens the path to the 158.47 prior pivot
Loss of the 157.94 Asian low returns focus to the 157.55 range floor; a break there ends the 3-week range read
Fed Chair Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC (~1.5h) could materially shift this read
158.95 week high remains the lower-high cap beneath the 159.00 intervention-risk zone
Double low at 157.55 vs lower high at 158.25 inside 157.55–158.95 week range.
USD/JPY is back at the 158.11 weekly open. Wednesday's NY-session spike was rejected at the 158.95 week high, and the slide that followed found a double low near the 157.55 week low in Thursday's Asia and NY sessions. The second test came straight after the hot US PPI print, as falling Treasury yields overrode the data, and the rebound stalled at the 158.25 thu high, the 50% retracement of the Wed–Thu drop. Price sits marginally above flat EMA(20) and EMA(50) near 158.07–158.12, with RSI(14) neutral at 51 and ATR(14) compressing to ~18 pips.
Support: 158.11, 157.94, 157.55
Resistance: 158.25, 158.46, 158.95
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC Fri could materially shift this read, with US yields the main driver
H1 close above the 158.25 thu high and the lower-high line from Wednesday's peak would extend the double-bottom rebound toward the 158.46 tue high
Loss of the 158.11 weekly open and the 157.94 post-ny low reopens the 157.55 week low
A break below the 157.55 week low ends the double-bottom read; the 158.95 week high remains the range cap where intervention rhetoric clusters
Lower high at 158.95 below 159.00, false break to 157.55 week low, back at weekly open.
Monday's grind from the 158.11 weekly open stalled at 158.75. Wednesday's hot-CPI spike in the NY session was then rejected at 158.95, the week high, as Treasury yields reversed, and the fade carried through Thursday's Asia session. Thursday's PPI and retail sales beat produced a whipsaw: a false break of the 157.58 Asia low to a 157.55 week low, then a recovery to 158.25. That thu high is a lower high and sits at the 50% retracement of the CPI-high drop, leaving price at the weekly open, above EMA(20) at 158.04, sitting on EMA(50) and with RSI(14) at 53 inside a 157.55–158.95 range.
Support: 158.04, 157.83, 157.55
Resistance: 158.25, 158.48, 158.95
What it said to watch
Warsh speech 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read; JPY has tracked the yield reversal more than US data surprises
H1 close above the 158.25 thu high breaks the lower highs line and the 50% retracement of the CPI-high drop
Failure to hold ema20 at 158.04 and the 157.83 tuesday low puts the 157.55 week low back in play
158.48 pre-cpi high and 158.95 week high below 159.00: area to watch for rejection given intervention sensitivity