USD/JPY AI Live Scan, 4-hour chart, Thursday, 17 September 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/JPY 4-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
21:02 UTC
Recovery uptrend off the 152.89 low, momentum flattening · RSI 62 · price 155.971
Higher highs and higher lows since 152.89, capped under 156.45.
The 160.39 top gave way to a 750-pip slide into the 152.89 sept low, and price has since built a sequence of higher highs and higher lows, reclaiming both EMA20 and EMA50 with the faster average crossing back above the slower — a constructive ema cross in swing terms. The advance has stalled into the 156.45 weekly high, where the last four bars have produced repeated rejection wicks after the hawkish Fed hike and firm US data rebuilt dollar support. ATR(14) near 45 pips is mid-range for this window, and the recovery has retraced roughly half the September drop, keeping the 155.33 swing low as the nearest structural pivot.
Support: 155.33, 154.83, 153.00
Resistance: 156.45, 157.54
What it said to watch
BoJ decision Fri 03:00 GMT with Ueda's presser at 06:30 GMT is the dominant catalyst for this structure; Japan CPI tonight is the lead-in
Sustained H4 close above the 156.45 weekly high would extend the higher-high sequence toward the 157.54 prior swing
Loss of the 155.33 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and puts the 154.83 prior low back in play
Failure to hold 153.00 sept low would negate the entire recovery leg
17:02 UTC
Corrective uptrend off the 152.886 low, momentum firm · RSI 61 · price 156.056
Higher highs and higher lows since the base low; retracing the 160.39-152.89 impulse.
The 160.39-152.89 slide bottomed at the base low near 153.24 and price has since built a clean sequence of higher lows (153.95, 154.21, 154.83, 155.33) inside a rising channel, with EMA20 crossing back above EMA50 as the hawkish FOMC hike to 3.75-4.00% and firm US data lifted the dollar for three sessions. The 156.41 swing high is the immediate cap and sits just under the 50% fib of the September drop at 156.64. ATR(14) near 48 pips is mid-range, with the single 130-pip expansion bar into 156.41 the only real volatility burst of the recovery.
Support: 155.33, 154.83, 153.24
Resistance: 156.41, 156.64, 157.52
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 156.41 swing high opens the 50% fib at 156.64 and then the 61.8% fib at 157.52
Loss of the 155.33 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence; 154.83 prior low is the next structural shelf
BoJ decision and Ueda press conference Friday, plus Japan National CPI tonight, are the events most likely to reset this structure
Rejection at 156.41 without a fresh higher low would flatten the channel into a range
15:21 UTC
Corrective uptrend off the 152.89 low, momentum stalling · RSI 63 · price 155.909
Higher highs and higher lows since 152.89, first pullback from 156.41.
Since the 152.89 low, USDJPY has built a sequence of higher lows and price sits above both EMA20 (~155.35) and EMA50 (~154.65), which crossed bullish mid-window. The impulse bar into 156.41 cleared the prior 155.49 shelf — a breakout that is now being retested from above, with 155.90 holding just over the 38.2% retracement of the 160.39-152.89 decline. The recovery leg is USD-carry driven after the hawkish Fed dot plot, but upside has been capped as hawkish BoJ repricing builds ahead of Friday's decision.
Support: 155.00
Resistance: 156.41, 157.54
What it said to watch
BoJ decision Fri 03:00 GMT plus Ueda's press conference is the dominant event risk for this structure
H4 close above the 156.41 swing high would extend the higher-high sequence toward the 157.54 prior swing
Loss of the 155.00 psych level would break the rising higher-lows line and turn the breakout into a false break
Sustained trade back under EMA20 (~155.35) would mark the first failed retest of the recovery leg
Japan National CPI ex fresh food tonight 23:30 GMT is the last pre-decision input
13:03 UTC
Corrective uptrend off the 152.9 base, momentum firm · RSI 65 · price 155.909
Higher highs and higher lows since the base low; EMA20 crossed above EMA50.
The 160.39 to 152.89 slide has stalled into a double bottom around the 153.30 base low, and price has since carved a sequence of higher lows into 156.41, the week high, with the hawkish Fed dot profile doing most of the lifting. That recovery has retraced roughly 38.2% of the whole down-leg and pushed EMA20 back above EMA50 for the first time in the window, with the last three bars consolidating above the EMA20 near 155.25. ATR(14) near 48 pips is expanding versus the mid-window base, consistent with the impulse leg rather than a drift.
Support: 155.25, 154.83, 153.30
Resistance: 156.41, 156.75
What it said to watch
BoJ decision Fri 03:00 GMT and the Ueda press conference at 06:30 GMT are the dominant event risk for this structure
Japan National CPI ex Fresh Food at 23:30 GMT lands inside the next bar period
H4 close above the 156.41 week high extends the higher-high sequence toward the 156.75 lower-highs line
Loss of 154.83, the swing low, breaks the higher-low chain and re-opens the 153.30 base low
Higher highs and higher lows since the 152.89 low, retracing the September decline.
After the 160.39 to 152.89 decline, USDJPY has built a clean sequence of higher lows and cleared the 155.49 shelf with an impulsive bar to 156.41, the best level in almost two weeks — the hawkish Fed hike and hawkish dot profile have done the work while the fully-priced BoJ move gave the yen no traction. Price is holding above both EMA20 and EMA50 with the pair now retesting the breakout area after basing at 155.53. ATR(14) near 48 pips is off the peaks of the sell-off, so the advance is grinding rather than expanding, with RSI in the mid-60s and no divergence yet.
Support: 155.53, 154.83
Resistance: 156.41, 157.55
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 156.41 week high would keep the recovery capped inside the 153.30-156.40 band
An H4 close below the 154.83 swing low breaks the higher-lows sequence
Japan CPI ex fresh food tonight 23:30 GMT, then the BoJ decision Fri 03:00 GMT and Ueda's 06:30 GMT press conference — the main structural risk to this read
A sustained close above 156.41 opens the path back toward the 157.55 prior high
Higher highs and higher lows since the 152.89 base, capped below 156.41.
After the 160.39-to-152.89 slide, price has carved a sequence of higher lows and higher highs over the past two weeks, with the hawkish Fed dot plot fuelling the impulse bar that broke 155.49 and printed a swing high at 156.41. That break has since been retested, with the pullback holding above the rising ema20 near 155.11 and stalling around the 38.2% retracement of the September decline; the 50% fib at 156.64 sits just above the swing high as the next reference. ATR(14) near 46 pips has cooled from the breakdown extremes, leaving a tighter range ahead of the BoJ.
Support: 155.11, 154.40, 153.25
Resistance: 156.41, 156.64
What it said to watch
BoJ decision Fri 03:00 GMT and the Ueda press conference at 06:30 GMT are the dominant risk to this structure
H4 close above the 156.41 swing high extends the higher-high sequence toward the 50% fib at 156.64
Loss of the ema20 at 155.11 and then the 154.40 swing low would break the higher-low sequence
Sustained trade back under 153.25 range base would resume the prior downtrend
11:55 UTC
Corrective uptrend off the 152.89 base · RSI 63 · price 155.84
Higher highs and higher lows since 152.89, capped by 156.41.
USDJPY has built a higher-low sequence off the 152.89 base, and the EMA20 crossing back above the EMA50 coincided with the breakout through the 155.4/155.5 shelf to the week high at 156.41 in the wake of the Fed's hawkish dot plot. Price is now consolidating just beneath that high, holding above the ema20 near 155.10 and the 38.2% retracement of the 160.39–152.89 slide. ATR(14) around 46 pips marks a mild expansion versus the compression seen through the 153.30–155.40 basing phase.
Support: 155.10, 154.32, 153.30
Resistance: 156.41, 157.54
What it said to watch
A close above the 156.41 week high opens the path toward the 157.54 prior swing
Loss of the ema20 at 155.10 and then the 154.32 swing low would break the higher-low sequence, with the 153.30 range low the next reference
BoJ decision Fri 03:00 GMT and the Ueda press conference at 06:30 GMT are the dominant event risks for this structure
Japan National CPI ex fresh food tonight (f/c 1.8%) is the last pre-BoJ input