Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/JPY weekly chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
12:08 UTC
Multi-quarter uptrend rolling into correction · RSI 43 · price 155.855
Lower highs since the Q2 top, price back at W1 EMA(50).
Regime: the multi-quarter uptrend from the April 2025 low at 139.89 topped at the 163.99 yearly high and has since rolled into a corrective phase, with successive lower highs and price now closing marginally below the W1 EMA(50) at 156.20. The 3-point recovery off the 152.89 swing low left the 50% fib retracement at 151.95 untested, while the 160.40 prior high caps the corrective range from above. Driver is a slowly compressing rate differential — BoJ normalisation toward 1.25% against a Fed at 3.75-4.00% — which has drained the carry edge from the trend without yet breaking the rising base off the 2025 low.
Support: 152.89, 151.95
Resistance: 156.20, 160.40, 163.99
What it said to watch
- Weekly close below the 152.89 swing low confirms a lower low and exposes the 50% fib at 151.95
- A weekly close back above the ema50 at 156.20 would restore the prior uptrend structure
- Failure of the rising base off the 139.89 low would mark a regime change rather than a correction
- BoJ decision and Ueda press conference Friday is the dominant event risk for this read
12:07 UTC
Multi-quarter uptrend, momentum broken · RSI 42 · price 155.855
Lower highs and lower lows since the Q2 peak, price back inside the prior consolidation band.
The advance off the April-2025 low at 139.886 stalled at 163.99, the prior high, and three of the last four weeks have closed lower, dragging price back to 155.855 — marginally under the W1 ema50 at 156.20 for the first time since the trend began. That reversal lines up with a compressing rate story: the Fed's hawkish dot-plot repricing has been paid for while the BoJ moves toward 1.25%, and each rally attempt since the peak has topped out lower (163.95, then 160.39 near the 160.40 round number). Regime is best read as a broken trend reverting into the Q1 consolidation band, whose 152.10 range floor and the recent 152.89 swing low now define the lower edge; weekly RSI at 42 is not at an extreme.
Support: 152.89, 152.10, 150.00
Resistance: 156.20, 160.40, 163.99
What it said to watch
- A weekly close back above the 156.20 w1 ema50 would repair the trend structure broken at the Q2 high
- Failure to hold 152.89 swing low and then the 152.10 range floor confirms a fresh lower low and opens the 150.00 psych area
- Reclaiming 160.40 round number is required to invalidate the sequence of lower highs from the 163.99 prior high
- BoJ decision and press conference this week, alongside US data flow, is the near-term risk to this weekly read