19:03 UTC
Multi-quarter uptrend, momentum stalled · RSI 45 · price 157.04
Lower highs since the July high, corrective range above a rising base.
The dominant regime is still the uptrend off the April-2025 low at 139.89, but it has been in correction since the 2026 high at 163.99 printed in July — three lower highs (163.99, 160.21, 158.05) and a swing low at 152.89 define the phase. Price closed at 157.04, back above the W1 ema50 near 156.20 but under the EMA20 at roughly 158.57, so the macro trend filter holds while medium-term momentum is flat; weekly RSI at ~44 sits mid-range and carries no signal at this scale. The latest bar is a wide-range recovery week after the BoJ's 25bp 'dovish hike' to 1.25% undershot jumbo-hike pricing, reversing the prior two-week slide that had reached 152.89.
Support: 156.20, 152.89, 150.00
Resistance: 158.05, 160.00, 163.99
What it said to watch
- A weekly close above the 158.05 weekly high breaks the lower-high sequence and re-opens the 160.00 psych area
- Rising MoF intervention risk into 160.00 has previously produced violent multi-week reversals in this window
- A weekly close below the 152.89 swing low would be the first lower-low since April 2025 and puts the 150.00 round number in focus
- Loss of the W1 ema50 near 156.20 on a closing basis would flip the macro-trend filter for the first time since Q4 2025
- Fed October 28 pricing (~58%) is the main driver of the rate differential underpinning this regime