11:46 UTC
Macro uptrend, momentum stalled · RSI 42 · price 157.029
Broad distribution range under the cycle high, lower highs since July.
The multi-quarter advance off the April 2025 low at 139.89 stalled at the 163.99 cycle high in July, and price has since traded a wide 152.89-163.99 distribution range with a sequence of lower highs. Price at 157.03 sits above a still-rising W1 EMA(50) at 156.20 but below EMA(20) near 158.36, so the macro trend is intact while the medium-term impulse has flattened; RSI at 42 is mid-range and uninformative at this scale. The dovishly-delivered BoJ hike to 1.25% and hawkish Fed dot-plot repricing have kept the carry leg supported, while MoF discomfort around 158-160 has capped each attempt higher — the 158.05 prior high is the immediate area to monitor for rejection or break.
Support: 156.20, 152.89, 150.00
Resistance: 158.05, 160.41, 163.99
What it said to watch
- Weekly close above the 158.05 prior high, then 160.41 q2 high, would reopen the 163.99 cycle high
- Weekly close below the 152.89 swing low would break the long base and expose 150.00 psych
- Loss of the rising w1 ema50 at 156.20 on a closing basis would mark the first macro-trend crack since 2025
- Unscheduled MoF/BoJ intervention near 158-160 is the main event risk capable of resetting the range in a single bar
- US flash PMIs on 23 Sep and the 28 Oct Fed hike pricing remain the drivers of the carry leg