19:02 UTC
Multi-quarter uptrend, in corrective reversion · RSI 47 · price 157.832
Failed break above 160, lower high and lower low since July.
The uptrend from the April 2025 low at 139.89 carried to a cycle high at 163.99 in July 2026, but the break above psych 160 failed. The collapse back into the 152–160 band that held through H1 2026 has since printed a lower high at 160.39 and a lower low at the sep low of 152.89, which held above the jan low and the rising trendline. Price is back above the W1 ema50 near 156.2 and just under the 23.6% fib at 158.3; wide US-Japan yield spreads keep demand under the yen crosses, while Tokyo and Washington intervention threats have capped rallies toward 160.
Support: 156.22, 152.89, 152.09
Resistance: 158.30, 163.99
What it said to watch
- Weekly close back above psych 160 would reopen the cycle high at 163.99 and undo the false-break read
- Weekly close below the sep low at 152.89 and the rising trendline, then the jan low at 152.09, would break the multi-quarter uptrend structure
- Holding the W1 ema50 near 156.2 keeps the macro trend filter intact; failure there shifts the regime toward deeper reversion
- A weekly close above the 23.6% fib at 158.3 would signal the correction is losing momentum
- US ADP and PCE on Wed and the Tankan on Sep 30 could materially shift this read; intervention headline risk rises near 159.60–160