USD/JPY AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Friday, 18 September 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/JPY 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
20:47 UTC
Pullback from session high, now basing · RSI 58 · price 156.863
Tight range after NY-session lower-lows, edging off the lows.
Friday's Asia-session BoJ 'dovish hike' spike to 158.05 was fully faded through NY, with a sharp mid-NY slide breaking down to 156.60. The last four hours have been a 156.60–156.79 range low/range top band, and the final bars of the week nudged through the range top to 156.86 with RSI(14) back near 58; ATR(14) has compressed to roughly 13 pips.
Support: 156.79, 156.60, 156.50
Resistance: 156.92, 157.16
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 156.92 swing high would extend the basing move toward the 157.16 bounce high
A close back under 156.79 range top returns price into the range; loss of 156.60 range low re-opens the 156.50 prior low
Thin end-of-week conditions mean the marginal range-top break needs confirmation on the next session's open
No scheduled high-impact USD/JPY data in the next 8h; MoF FX commentary as spot sits below 158.42 is the live headline risk
20:32 UTC
Downtrend off the spike high, momentum flat · RSI 42 · price 156.754
Tight consolidation above the session low after a 145-pip NY leg lower.
The BoJ 'dovish hike' spike into 158.05 was fully unwound during NY hours, with price rejected at 157.07 on the way down and basing at 156.60. Last ~5 hours are a 19-pip coil between the session low and the 156.79 range top, price pinned to the EMA20 with RSI(14) near 42 and ATR down to ~11 pips into the weekly close.
Support: 156.60, 156.73
Resistance: 156.79, 156.92, 157.07
What it said to watch
Close above 156.79 range top reopens 156.92 prior swing and the 157.07 lower high
Loss of 156.60 session low confirms continuation of the lower-low sequence
Thin late-session liquidity: current 19-pip range is likely an artefact of the close, not a structural base
MoF/BoJ FX commentary and 158.42 intervention chatter are the headline risk on the next reopen
20:17 UTC
Downtrend off the post-BoJ spike, now flat · RSI 47 · price 156.761
Lower highs into a tight late-NY range after the 158.05 rejection.
The dovish-hike BoJ spike to 158.05 was rejected and unwound through the NY session, a 145-pip slide that stalled at the 156.601 session low. Price has since coiled in a ~19-pip band under the 156.79 range top into the Friday close, RSI(14) neutral near 47 and ATR(14) around 12 pips.
Support: 156.601, 156.502
Resistance: 156.79, 156.918
What it said to watch
A 15m close above the 156.79 range top, then 156.918 recent high, would end the consolidation read
Loss of the 156.601 session low exposes the 156.502 prior low
Liquidity is thin into the Friday close — range edges hold less information here
Monday Fedspeak (Goolsbee 10:30 UTC) is the first catalyst able to shift this range
20:02 UTC
Intraday downtrend, now flat · RSI 46 · price 156.728
Lower highs off 158.05, basing in a tight range.
USDJPY spiked to 158.05 on the BoJ's dovish 25bp hike, then the NY fade stripped ~145 pips, with rejection at 156.97 supply on the way down. The last three hours have coiled in a 156.60–156.79 range, RSI(14) near 46, price under EMA20 and EMA50 and ATR(14) around 11 pips as late-Friday liquidity thins.
Support: 156.604, 156.502
Resistance: 156.79, 156.97, 157.16
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 156.79 range top puts 156.97 supply back in play
Loss of the 156.604 session low exposes the 156.502 prior low
Lower-high chain from 157.16 intact; a close above it invalidates the corrective read
Thin late-session conditions can distort the base ahead of the weekly close
The post-BoJ 'dovish hike' spike to 158.05 was fully unwound during NY hours, a sharp 80-pip bar cutting through 157.00 before price settled. Last five hours have gone sideways between the 156.60 session low and the 156.79 range top, RSI(14) mid-40s and ATR ~14 pips — no structure in play into the late-NY drift.
Support: 156.60, 156.50
Resistance: 156.79, 157.07
What it said to watch
M15 close above 156.79 range top breaks the descending lower-highs line and re-opens 157.07 prior high
Loss of the 156.60 session low confirms a lower low and exposes the 156.50 round number
Event-light into the weekly close; Fedspeak early next week is the next catalyst for this pair
Lower highs off 158.05, now a tight 156.60–156.79 range.
The BoJ dovish-hike spike carried price from 156.17 to 158.05 into the London morning, but the NY session gave back the whole leg, with the slide from 157.77 stalling at the 156.604 session low. Last three hours have coiled into a 156.60–156.79 range, price under EMA20 and RSI(14) near 41 — no directional structure late in NY.
Support: 156.604, 156.502
Resistance: 156.79, 157.03
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 156.79 range top reopens 157.03 ny swing hi
Loss of the 156.604 session low confirms a lower low toward the 156.502 spike low
Late-NY liquidity thin; MoF FX rhetoric near 158.42 remains a headline risk for the next session
Lower highs and lower lows, now coiling in a tight late-NY range.
The BoJ dovish-hike spike carried price to 158.05 in the London morning before NY hours unwound the entire move in two impulsive drops, bottoming at the 156.604 session low. Last ten bars have coiled between 156.60 and the 156.79 range top with price under EMA20 and EMA50 and RSI(14) near 37 — no follow-through either way into the Friday close.
Support: 156.604, 156.502
Resistance: 156.79, 157.03
What it said to watch
Close below the 156.604 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 156.502 prior low
Reclaim of the 156.79 range top would put the 157.03 post-drop high back in play and neutralise the lower-highs sequence
Thin late-Friday liquidity is compressing ranges; ATR near 14 pips is well below the BoJ-session norm
18:47 UTC
Intraday pullback, now flat · RSI 38 · price 156.756
Lower highs off 158.05, basing in a 156.60-156.92 band.
The post-BoJ spike to 158.05 was fully faded through the NY session, with a sharp 80-pip drop mid-afternoon and price now pinned between the 156.604 session low and the 156.918 swing high. Last five bars are sub-10-pip ranges into the Friday close — RSI(14) near 38, price under both EMA20 and EMA50, no setup in play.
Support: 156.604, 156.502
Resistance: 156.918
What it said to watch
M15 close above 156.918 swing high would break the descending lower-high sequence
Loss of the 156.604 session low exposes the 156.502 prior low
MoF rhetoric on FX moves remains the main gap risk into the new week given the 158.42 area flagged above
Lower highs since the NY drop, now coiled in a tight 156.60-156.81 range.
The BoJ dovish-hike spike to 158.05 was fully unwound during NY hours, with the impulsive leg down through 157.00 stalling at 156.60. Price has spent the last two-plus hours pinned between 156.60 and the 156.806 range top, RSI(14) near 35 and price under both EMA20 and EMA50; ATR(14) ~21 pips.
Support: 156.604, 156.502
Resistance: 156.806, 156.918
What it said to watch
M15 close above 156.918 breaks the lower-high chain and invalidates the downtrend read
Loss of the 156.604 session low exposes the 156.502 spike low
Late-NY liquidity thinning — the 156.60-156.81 range can widen on little flow
MoF rhetoric risk if a fresh leg up retests the 158.42 area
Lower highs from 158.05, price basing in a tight range just off the session low.
USD/JPY has faded roughly 145 pips off the 158.05 post-BoJ high, the sharpest leg arriving mid-NY session as softer US industrial production and an easing oil price took the edge off the dollar. The last four hours have coiled into a 156.60–156.81 band: the session low is holding, the range top is capping, with RSI(14) near 28 and ATR(14) about 21 pips.
Support: 156.60, 156.50
Resistance: 156.81, 157.16, 157.51
What it said to watch
A close below the 156.60 session low exposes the 156.50 spike low left by the BoJ reaction
Reclaiming the 156.81 range top is required before the 157.16 bounce high comes back into play; 157.51 stands as the latest lower high
Thin late-Friday liquidity into the weekend close can distort this range read
MoF rhetoric risk sits above, near the 158.42 area flagged on the JPY side
17:47 UTC
Downtrend into the close, momentum flattening · RSI 28 · price 156.728
Lower highs and lower lows since the 158.05 high, last 4h basing 156.60–156.93.
The dovish BoJ hike drove the London-session ramp to a 158.05 session high, but NY hours unwound it after the soft US industrial production print, an 80-pip bar at 14:45 UTC breaking the intraday uptrend. Price has since ground out a chain of lower highs into 156.60–156.93 with RSI(14) near 28 and trade below EMA20 at 157.07; the final bar is near-zero volume into the weekly close.
Support: 156.604, 156.502
Resistance: 157.03
What it said to watch
A close back above the 157.03 lower high would invalidate the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 156.604 session low confirms a lower low toward the 156.502 swing low
Late-Friday liquidity is minimal — the Asia reopen is the first real test of the 156.60–156.93 base
17:33 UTC
Intraday downtrend, momentum flattening at the lows · RSI 30 · price 156.689
Lower highs / lower lows since 158.05, now coiling above the session low.
The dovish BoJ hike drove the 02:45 UTC gap higher and a run to the 158.053 day high in early NY, but the pair has since unwound ~145 pips, with the 14:45 UTC bar alone covering 80 pips. Supply has capped every bounce — 157.156 retrace high, then 156.918 lower high — and the last six bars are compressing in a 30-pip band above the 156.604 session low with RSI(14) at 29.5 and price beneath both EMA20 (157.11) and EMA50.
Support: 156.604, 156.502
Resistance: 156.918, 157.156, 158.053
What it said to watch
A close below the 156.604 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 156.502 spike low
Reclaim of the 156.918 lower high breaks the descending sequence and invalidates the drift lower
Late Fedspeak into the NY close is the live driver for the next few bars; JPY has no scheduled data
17:17 UTC
Downtrend within the NY session, momentum stretched · RSI 27 · price 156.646
Lower highs / lower lows off 158.053, price pinned at session lows.
The BoJ's dovish 25bp hike drove the Asia/London leg from 155.871 to 158.053, but NY hours reversed it hard — a single bar took 157.78 to 156.969 and price has since ground out a lower-high chain into the 156.604 session low. RSI(14) at ~27 with price under EMA20 and EMA50, sitting on the 61.8% retracement of the 155.871–158.053 move; ATR(14) ~24 pips, so intraday swings are running wide.
Support: 156.604, 156.502
Resistance: 156.918, 157.156
What it said to watch
M15 close above 156.918 lower high breaks the NY lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 156.604 session low exposes the 156.502 spike low
Continued Fedspeak (Bowman) in the next hours can re-price this NY leg
Sustained recovery through 157.156 prior high would negate the session breakdown read
16:48 UTC
Intraday downtrend after a failed push to 158.05 · RSI 27 · price 156.761
Lower highs and lower lows since 158.05; last six bars coiling in a 35-pip band.
The BoJ's dovish 25bp hike drove a two-figure ramp from 156.13 to 158.05 through the Asia and London sessions, but the NY hours reversed it — an 80-pip bar into 12:45 UTC broke the 157.64 base and price has since based between 156.68 and 157.03. RSI(14) at 27 is stretched but not extreme, and the 61.8% retracement of the BoJ leg at 156.87 has given way, with the 157.25 ema20 now overhead.
Support: 156.679, 156.502
Resistance: 157.03, 157.25, 157.507
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 156.68 session low confirms another lower low toward the 156.50 spike low
A close back above the 157.03 post-drop high and the 157.25 ema20 invalidates the lower-high sequence
Recovery through 157.51, the breakdown pt, would repair the NY downside leg
Fed Bowman speaking later today is the live driver into the next bars
Lower highs and lower lows since the 158.05 session high.
The dovish-hike BoJ leg carried price from the 155.87 Asian base to a 158.05 session high, capped twice near 158.00, before NY afternoon hours unwound roughly 135 pips in seven bars. Price is now at 156.71, pinned on the 61.8% retracement of that advance and the 156.68 session low, with RSI(14) near 24 and price below both EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 156.679, 156.502
Resistance: 157.07, 158.053
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 157.07 pivot would neutralise the lower-high chain; failure keeps 156.50 spike low in play
A close under 156.68 session low confirms continuation of the lower-low sequence
Fedspeak into the close and MoF intervention rhetoric above 158.42 remain the live drivers for the next few hours
Lower highs and lower lows since the 158.05 session high; basing near session lows.
USDJPY ran 155.87 to a 158.05 session high on the BoJ's dovish 25bp hike, then rejected hard into the NY session, snapping the 157.64 shelf and the broken uptrend line off the 155.87 low in two impulsive bars. Price is now grinding at 156.75-157.03 just under the 50% retracement of the whole advance, RSI(14) at 25 and price below both EMA20 (157.38) and EMA50, with ATR at ~24 pips per bar.
Support: 156.75, 156.50
Resistance: 157.03, 157.22, 158.05
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 157.03 bounce high, then the 157.22 fib 38.2 area, would negate the breakdown
Failure to hold the 156.75 session low exposes the 156.50 spike low
MoF/BoJ FX rhetoric and Fedspeak (Bowman) later in the NY session can re-price this move quickly
Lower highs and lower lows since the 158.053 peak; price basing above 156.75.
The BoJ's dovish hike fuelled a ~190-pip climb from the Asian range into a 158.053 session high, but the NY afternoon erased it: an 80-pip bar from 14:45 UTC sliced the 157.507 breakdown lvl and price then broke 157.00. Spot is now sitting on the 61.8% fib of the entire BoJ leg near 156.87, RSI(14) at 26, holding just above the 156.751 ny sess low with the 157.030 swing high capping every bounce attempt.
Support: 156.751, 156.502
Resistance: 157.03, 157.507, 158.053
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 157.030 swing high would invalidate the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 156.751 ny sess low confirms a lower low and exposes the 156.502 spike low
Fedspeak (Bowman) later Friday and MoF intervention rhetoric near 158 can reshape this read into the weekly close
Lower highs and lower lows since the session high, price back under EMA20.
The dovish BoJ hike to 1.25% drove a clean 190-pip leg from 156.135 up to the 158.053 session high, which then stalled in a 157.70–158.05 prior range for six hours. NY hours delivered a 110-pip flush in a single bar, taking price through the rising support line and back under the 157.51 ema20; RSI(14) at 27 with ATR near 23 pips, current bounce holding just above the 156.751 ny low.
Support: 156.751, 156.502
Resistance: 157.506, 158.053
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 157.51 ema20 would neutralise the reversal read
Loss of the 156.751 ny low confirms a lower low and exposes the 156.502 swing low
MoF / Japanese official FX rhetoric and Fed's Bowman later in the session are the live catalysts for another leg either way
HH/HL chain off 156.13 broken; first lower low sequence from 158.05.
The dovish-hike BoJ leg from the Tokyo morning carried price to a session high at 158.05, twice capped there, before a 110-pip slide in the final hour of the window broke the 157.70/157.88 shelf and dumped price through both EMA20 (157.54) and EMA50. RSI(14) at 24 is stretched but not sub-20; price is now pinned between the 156.85 session low and the 157.44 breakdown level, sitting on the 61.8% retracement of the whole post-BoJ advance.
Support: 156.85, 156.50
Resistance: 157.44, 157.54, 158.05
What it said to watch
A 15-minute close back above 157.44 would negate the range break and put the ema20 back in play
Failure to hold 156.85 session low confirms continuation toward the 156.50 swing low
Fed speaker risk later in the NY session could re-price the move either way given thin JPY liquidity
HH/HL chain broken; 157.64-158.05 range lost, snapback into EMA50.
The six-hour grind up to the 158.05 session high broke down in the NY session: one 80-pip candle swept 156.969 — the 50% retracement of the 155.87-158.05 advance — before snapping back to 157.44. Price sits below the EMA20 at 157.71 and is pinned on the EMA50, with RSI(14) at 33 after post-BoJ yen weakness stalled; ATR(14) is 17 pips.
Support: 157.00, 156.50
Resistance: 157.71, 157.91, 158.05
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 157.71 ema20 would negate the range break
Failure to hold the 157.00 spike low re-opens the 156.50 swing low
Reclaiming 157.91 prior high puts the 158.05 session high back in play
Fedspeak later in the US session could shift this read
The dovish BoJ hike drove a vertical 190-pip leg off 156.13 into a 158.05 session high; since then price has spent roughly five hours ranging 157.64–158.00, repeatedly capped at the 158.00 psych level. RSI(14) back to ~51 and price pinned on EMA20 — momentum has flattened rather than reversed, with ATR(14) near 13.5 pips.
Support: 157.64
Resistance: 158.00, 158.05
What it said to watch
M15 close above 158.05 session high re-opens the post-BoJ trend leg
Loss of 157.64 range low would confirm the first lower-low since the spike
Fed speaker risk (Bowman) later in the NY session can re-rate the rate gap
Tokyo closed Mon–Wed for Silver Week — thinner liquidity can exaggerate moves in both directions
Higher highs since Asia, now sideways under session high.
The dovish-hike BoJ decision in the Asia session triggered the leg from 156.50 to the 158.053 session high, and NY hours have been pure consolidation between 157.64 and the 158.00 round number. RSI(14) at ~58 with ATR near 13.5 pips — repeated rejection just under 158.00, no fresh high in the last five hours.
Support: 157.643, 157.297
Resistance: 158.053, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.053 session high would resume the post-BoJ leg
Loss of the 157.643 session low breaks the NY consolidation floor and opens the 157.297 swing low
Fedspeak (Bowman) later today is the only live driver into the close; thin Tokyo liquidity next week can exaggerate moves
Higher highs from 156.50, now ranging 157.64–158.05 under session high.
USDJPY ran from 156.50 to 158.05 through the London–NY transition on the dovish-split BoJ hike, and has since stalled in a 157.64–158.05 consolidation with RSI(14) back to neutral near 54. Price is pinned mid-range at 157.81, holding well above EMA50 but chopping either side of EMA20; ATR(14) 12.5 pips.
Support: 157.64, 157.30
Resistance: 157.96, 158.05
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 158.05 session high would extend the impulse leg
M15 close below the 157.64 range low invalidates the consolidation read and exposes the breakout base at 157.30
Fed's Bowman speaking later in the NY session is the main near-term catalyst for this pair
Higher highs/higher lows, now ranging under the session high.
Yen was sold hard through the London-NY transition after the fully-priced BoJ hike and its dovish 7-2 split, USD/JPY running from the 156.50 spike low to a session high at 158.053. Since NY open price has gone sideways in a 157.643-158.053 band with repeated demand around the 157.700 swing low, RSI(14) back to mid-range near 52 and ATR(14) about 15 pips.
Support: 157.70, 157.643, 157.49
Resistance: 158.053, 158.20
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 158.053 session high opens the 158.200 round number
Loss of the 157.643 session low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes 157.490 prior swing
Unscheduled MoF FX rhetoric with spot above 157 is the main squeeze risk on this range
Fedspeak (Bowman) later today could re-price the carry leg intraday
Higher highs into 158.05, now four-hour consolidation.
Post-BoJ yen selling — fully-priced 25bp hike with a dovish 7-2 split and a soft core CPI miss — carried price from the 156.50 spike low to a 158.053 session high in London. The first hour of NY is rotating inside a 157.64–158.01 band, RSI(14) near 57 and price a touch under EMA20; no fresh structure since the 158.00 psych area capped.
Support: 157.643, 157.495
Resistance: 158.00, 158.053
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.053 session high resumes the post-BoJ leg
Loss of the 157.643 ny low exposes the 157.495 london swing and confirms a lower low
Fedspeak (Bowman) and any MoF FX commentary with price pressing 158.00 psych could reprice this range quickly
Higher highs / higher lows since 156.50, now ranging under session high.
Yen was sold hard through the London session after the fully-priced BoJ hike and soft core CPI, taking USDJPY from 156.17 to a session high of 158.05 with a volatile two-way bar around the Ueda press conference. Into NY hours the pair has gone sideways between 157.64 and 158.05, RSI(14) back to neutral near 53 and price slipping just under the EMA20 — rejection at the round number so far, with demand holding the 157.64 session low.
Support: 157.64, 157.49
Resistance: 158.05, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above 158.05 session high resumes the higher-high sequence
Loss of the 157.64 session low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes 157.49 swing low
Fedspeak (Bowman) later today is the nearest catalyst; unscheduled MoF FX commentary is the risk if 158.00 round number gives way
Post-BoJ impulse leg into a high consolidation, now slipping from its floor.
USDJPY ran 155.59 to a 158.05 session high through London after the BoJ's dovish 7-2 hike, then spent NY hours chopping 157.70–158.05 and has now closed at the bottom of that band with RSI(14) back near 41. Price is under EMA20 but well above EMA50; rejection at the session high is the only fresh structure, with 157.62 the swing low holding the last leg together.
Support: 157.62, 157.49
Resistance: 157.91, 158.05
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 157.91 range mid restores the consolidation read under 158.05
Loss of the 157.62 swing low confirms a lower low and exposes the 157.49 breakout lvl
US Industrial Production landing into the first hour of NY could reprice this range quickly
ATR(14) ~15 pips — moves beyond that from here are structural, not noise
Higher highs/higher lows, now coiling under session high.
USDJPY broke the Asian range on the BoJ hike (dovish 7-2 delivery) and extended through London to a 158.053 session high, with the Ueda-presser whipsaw low at 156.502 never revisited. Last ~3.5h has been a tight consolidation either side of the 158.00 round number, holding a 157.715 swing low; RSI(14) near 62 and ATR ~17 pips.
Support: 157.715, 157.49
Resistance: 158.00, 158.053
What it said to watch
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC lands inside the next bar — main near-term repricing risk
M15 close above the 158.053 session high resumes the higher-high sequence
Loss of 157.715 swing low breaks the consolidation floor and opens the 157.49 london base
MoF/BoJ FX rhetoric as price probes the high-157s would flip this read fast
Higher highs / higher lows into a tight upper-range consolidation.
The BoJ hike to 1.25% with no hawkish follow-through triggered a sell-the-fact yen unwind: after the 156.502 spike low, USDJPY ran to a 158.053 session high during the London session. Last five hours have coiled between the 157.676 range floor and the 158.00 psych area, with two rejections just under the session high and RSI(14) cooling to the high-50s; ATR(14) near 16 pips.
Support: 157.676
Resistance: 158.00, 158.053
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.676 range floor would confirm the first lower low since the post-BoJ leg began
Acceptance above the 158.053 session high keeps the upper range broken; approach to the 158 psych zone revives Japanese verbal-intervention rhetoric
US Industrial Production 13:15 GMT and Bowman remarks land inside the next few bars and could break this consolidation either way
Higher highs / higher lows since the BoJ spike, now coiling under the session high.
London hours drove a clean break of the Asian range after the BoJ delivered the fully-priced hike to 1.25% with soft core CPI (1.7%), the classic sell-the-fact yen unwind; the 156.50 spike low was reclaimed within two bars. Price has since stalled in a 157.68–158.05 band with RSI(14) cooling to the mid-50s from overbought, ATR(14) around 18 pips.
Support: 157.68, 157.49
Resistance: 158.053, 158.00
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 158.053 session high and the 158.00 psych level would extend the post-BoJ leg
A close below the 157.68 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and opens the 157.49 prior high as the next reference
US Industrial Production at 13:15 GMT plus Bowman remarks land inside the next bar period and could break the consolidation
Higher highs and higher lows since the BoJ break; last 3h consolidating under the session high.
The Asian range near 156.00 was broken on the BoJ 1.25% hike and then extended through London as Ueda's guidance was read as non-committal, taking price from a 156.50 presser dip to a 158.05 session high. Last three hours are a tight consolidation between 157.68 and the 158.00 psych level, RSI(14) cooling to ~58 from overbought while ATR sits near 17.5 pips.
Support: 157.68, 157.49
Resistance: 158.00, 158.05
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.05 session high would extend the higher-high chain; the 158.00 psych area is where intervention rhetoric risk is flagged
Loss of the 157.68 swing low breaks the intraday HL sequence and puts 157.49 prior pivot back in play
US Industrial Production 13:15 GMT and Bowman remarks land in the next NY hours and could reset this range
11:46 UTC
Uptrend, momentum flattening near session high · RSI 57 · price 157.752
Higher highs and higher lows since the London-session BoJ break; last 6 bars stalling under 158.00.
USDJPY has run from the 156.50 flush to a 158.05 session high after the BoJ's fully-priced 25bp hike and softer core CPI (1.7%) triggered a sell-the-fact in the yen. Price is now consolidating in a 157.62–158.05 band with RSI(14) cooling to the mid-50s; the 158 psych level has capped four attempts.
Support: 157.62, 157.49
Resistance: 158.05, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above 158.05 session high extends the post-BoJ leg; 158 psych is the area to monitor for rejection or break
Loss of the 157.62 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and puts the 157.49 breakout shelf back in play
US Industrial Production 13:15 GMT and Bowman speech fall inside the next few bars and can reprice the move
Approach toward 158 revives Japanese official verbal-intervention risk
Higher highs / higher lows, now consolidating under session high.
The BoJ hike to 1.25% at 03:00 GMT triggered an initial two-way spike, then a steady London-session grind through 157.30 to a session high at 158.05 — softer core CPI at 1.7% capped any hawkish follow-through. Price is now chopping in a 157.62–158.05 shelf just under the 158 handle with RSI(14) near 60 and ATR(14) around 21 pips.
Support: 157.62, 157.30
Resistance: 158.05
What it said to watch
M15 close below 157.62 breaks the higher-low chain built through London
Sustained acceptance above the 158.05 session high is the level to monitor — Japanese verbal-intervention rhetoric has historically revived near 158
Loss of 157.30, the prior high broken on the way up, would flip the intraday structure to lower highs
US Industrial Production at 13:15 GMT plus Bowman later could re-rate the move into the NY session
11:16 UTC
Uptrend, momentum flattening near session high · RSI 64 · price 157.786
Higher highs and higher lows since the 156.50 spike low; last 8 bars ranging 157.62-158.05.
The BoJ hike to 1.25% and Ueda's non-committal follow-through drove a sharp two-way flush — a stab to 156.50 at the press conference, then a straight London-session run to 158.05. Price has since stalled in a 157.62-158.05 consolidation, RSI(14) cooling to the low 60s from overbought, ATR ~20 pips per bar.
Support: 157.62, 157.24, 156.50
Resistance: 158.053
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.05 session high extends the London leg; approach to 158.00 revives Japanese verbal-intervention risk
Loss of 157.62 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and puts the 157.24 london low back in play
US Industrial Production at 13:15 GMT is the only scheduled event into the NY session and can reprice the move
Higher highs/higher lows since the 156.50 spike low, last 8 bars ranging under the session high.
Sell-the-fact JPY flow after the in-line BoJ hike and soft core CPI drove a clean London-session trend leg from the 156.50 spike low to a 158.05 session high, with price now coiling in a 157.62–158.05 range and RSI(14) around 73. The 158.00 round number is capping the last six bars; higher lows are still intact, ATR(14) ~21 pips.
Support: 157.62, 157.30, 156.50
Resistance: 158.00, 158.05
What it said to watch
M15 close above 158.05 session high extends the post-BoJ leg; approach to 158 keeps Japanese verbal-intervention rhetoric a live tail risk
Loss of 157.62 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and puts the 157.30 prior high back in play
US Industrial Production at 13:15 GMT is the only scheduled event in the next bars and can reprice the range
10:46 UTC
Uptrend, momentum flattening near session high · RSI 74 · price 157.938
Higher highs / higher lows since the post-BoJ impulse; last ~6 bars coiling under 158.00.
London session extended the post-BoJ squeeze — the 25bp hike to 1.25% plus the soft core CPI print triggered a long-JPY unwind — with a clean HH/HL chain off the 156.50 spike low into a 158.053 session high. Price is now compressing in a 20-pip band under the 158.00 round number, RSI(14) around 74 and ATR(14) about 23 pips.
Support: 157.62, 157.24, 156.50
Resistance: 158.00, 158.053
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 158.00 round number and the 158.053 session high would extend the HH sequence into the NY session
A close back below 157.62 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and turns the read to range-bound
US Industrial Production at 13:15 GMT and Fed's Bowman later could reprice the dollar leg within the next few bars
157.24 london low is the pivot separating consolidation from a fuller give-back of the post-BoJ move
10:30 UTC
Uptrend, extended but intact · RSI 76 · price 157.891
Higher highs and higher lows since the post-BoJ spike low.
USDJPY has trended up through the London session after the sell-the-fact BoJ hike and soft core CPI, tagging 158.05 session high before stalling just under the 158.00 psych level. RSI(14) near 76 with ATR ~24 pips; the higher-low chain off the 156.50 spike low remains unbroken, latest higher low at 157.62.
Support: 157.62, 156.50
Resistance: 158.00, 158.05
What it said to watch
A 15-minute close back below the 157.62 swing low breaks the higher-low chain
Sustained trade above the 158.05 session high extends the breakout; repeated failure there marks rejection at the psych level
US Industrial Production at 13:15 GMT and Fed's Bowman later are the near-term event risks for this read
10:16 UTC
Uptrend, extended · RSI 75 · price 157.927
Higher highs and higher lows since the 156.50 spike low.
Yen sold off across the board after the BoJ's fully-priced 25bp hike to 1.25% and the soft core CPI print, and USD/JPY has run in a near-straight line from the 156.50 spike low to a 158.05 session high during London hours. RSI(14) near 75 is hot but consistent with a trending impulse; the last four bars have stalled under 158.05 without giving back the 157.62 swing low.
Support: 157.62, 156.50
Resistance: 158.05, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close back under 157.62 breaks the higher-low chain built through London
Acceptance above the 158.05 session high would extend the impulse toward the 158.50 round number
US Industrial Production (13:15 GMT) and Fed's Bowman later land inside the NY session and can reprice this leg
ATR(14) at ~24 pips — bar ranges have compressed in the last hour versus the 80-pip post-BoJ candle
10:01 UTC
Uptrend, extended but intact · RSI 72 · price 157.96
Higher highs / higher lows since the BoJ decision, price at session highs.
The fully-priced BoJ hike to 1.25% plus the soft core CPI print triggered a long-JPY unwind: price spiked from the 156.13 area, whipsawed into the 156.50 spike low during the Ueda press conference, then ground higher through the London session to a 158.05 session high. Chain of higher lows holds — 157.62 swing low is the last one, with 157.30 the breakout level that flipped to support; RSI(14) near 72 is hot but normal in this kind of impulse, and the 158.50 round number is the next reference above.
Support: 157.62, 157.30, 156.50
Resistance: 158.05, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 157.62 swing low would break the higher-low chain
Loss of 157.30 breakout level would invalidate the post-BoJ trend read
Acceptance above the 158.05 session high opens the path to the 158.50 round number
US Industrial Production 13:15 GMT and Fed's Bowman later today are the live catalysts for the next bars
Higher highs and higher lows since the 156.50 spike low, price at session high.
The BoJ hike to 1.25% and soft core CPI triggered a two-way flush to the 156.50 spike low before an uninterrupted London-session grind higher, price now closing on the 157.93 session high with RSI(14) at 71. Higher lows have held every pullback since, the shallowest being 157.62; ATR(14) at ~28 pips reflects the widened post-decision ranges.
Support: 157.62, 157.30, 156.50
Resistance: 157.93, 158.00
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 157.93 session high puts the 158.00 round number in play
A close back below the 157.62 swing low breaks the chain of rising lows
Loss of 157.30 breakout base would negate the post-BoJ leg entirely
US Industrial Production 13:15 GMT and Fed's Bowman later could reshape the dollar leg of this move
09:31 UTC
Uptrend, momentum cooling into session high · RSI 66 · price 157.726
Higher highs / higher lows since the Ueda-presser flush, last three bars stalling under 157.91.
The fully-priced BoJ hike to 1.25% lifted USDJPY off the Asian range, and the 06:30 GMT Ueda presser produced a spike to the london low at 156.50 that was immediately reclaimed — a false break that kicked off a clean higher-low chain into the London session high at 157.91. Price is now consolidating 15-20 pips below that high with RSI(14) near 66 and ATR(14) around 26 pips, so no rejection candle yet.
Support: 157.49, 157.04, 156.50
Resistance: 157.91, 158.00
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 157.91 session high opens the 158.00 round number, an area to monitor for rejection given past MoF rhetoric near that level
A close back under the 157.49 hl pivot breaks the higher-low chain and turns the last leg into a range
Loss of 157.04 swing low would put the london low at 156.50 back in play
US Industrial Production at 13:15 GMT is the only US data left and could reprice this move within the next few bars
09:16 UTC
Uptrend, extended but intact · RSI 71 · price 157.802
Higher highs / higher lows since the 06:30 GMT reversal.
The fully-priced BoJ hike to 1.25% and the Ueda presser produced an 80-pip spike to a 156.50 presser low that was fully reversed inside two bars; London hours then broke the 157.33 prior high and printed a session high at 157.91 with RSI(14) near 71. Pullbacks have been shallow, each holding above the 157.49 swing low, leaving the 158.00 psych level as the immediate overhead area to watch for rejection or break.
Support: 157.49, 157.33, 156.50
Resistance: 157.91, 158.00
What it said to watch
A close back below the 157.49 swing low breaks the higher-low chain built through London
Rejection at the 158.00 psych level after the session high would cap the move and turn 157.33 prior high into the pivot
US Industrial Production at 13:15 GMT is the next scheduled risk to this intraday read
RSI(14) above 70 with ATR near 25 pips means retracements can be fast without breaking structure
09:01 UTC
Uptrend, extended into session high · RSI 71 · price 157.802
HH/HL chain since the 156.50 spike low, price pinned at the session high.
The Ueda presser bar sank to 156.50 and was fully reversed inside two bars — a false break that launched a clean HH/HL run through the 157.32 breakout lvl to a 157.91 session high, consistent with the sell-the-fact JPY read after the fully-priced BoJ hike. RSI(14) at 71 is hot but the last two bars are stalling just under the high with 158.00 round number overhead; ATR(14) ~27 pips.
Support: 157.49, 157.32, 156.50
Resistance: 157.91, 158.00
What it said to watch
Acceptance above 157.91 session high opens the path to the 158.00 round number
A close back under the 157.49 pivot breaks the HH/HL chain and turns this into a session-high rejection
Loss of the 157.32 breakout lvl would negate the post-presser leg entirely
US Industrial Production at 13:15 GMT is the next scheduled driver for this pair
08:46 UTC
Uptrend, impulsive into session high · RSI 67 · price 157.794
HH/HL chain since the 156.50 sweep; fresh 24h high.
The 06:30 GMT Ueda presser produced a fast spike down to 156.502 that was fully reversed inside two bars, and London hours have since driven a clean breakout through the 157.30 zone to a session high at 157.838 — a sell-the-fact JPY unwind after the fully-priced BoJ hike and the 1.7% core CPI miss. RSI(14) near 67 is hot but not extreme, ATR(14) about 26 pips, and price is extended above EMA20/EMA50 with 158.00 the next round number overhead.
Support: 157.30, 157.04, 156.50
Resistance: 157.838, 158.00
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 157.30 on a 15m close would break the HH/HL chain and mark the breakout as a false break
A push through 157.838 opens the path to the 158.00 psych level
Loss of 157.04 swing low would put the 156.50 sweep low back in play
Thin Tokyo liquidity around Silver Week can exaggerate moves; US Industrial Production at 13:15 GMT is the next scheduled risk to this read
08:31 UTC
Uptrend, momentum intact · RSI 68 · price 157.685
Higher highs and higher lows since the Asian range break, at session high.
The fully-priced BoJ hike to 1.25% alongside a 1.7% core CPI miss pushed USD/JPY out of the Asian range, and the 06:30 GMT Ueda presser produced an 80-pip flush to the spike low at 156.50 that was reclaimed within three bars. Into the London session price sits at a fresh session high of 157.69 with RSI(14) near 68 and ATR(14) around 26 pips; 157.30 prior high is the nearest reference below.
Support: 157.30, 156.50
Resistance: 157.69, 158.00
What it said to watch
Loss of 157.30 prior high would turn the London breakout into a false break
Acceptance above the 157.69 session high brings the 158.00 psych level into scope
A close below the rising support off the Asian lows would break the higher-low chain
US Industrial Production 13:15 GMT is the only scheduled risk left in the session
Asia sold the fact on the fully-priced BoJ hike to 1.25% and the 1.7% core CPI miss, lifting the pair off 156.13 through the 157.30 prior high. The 06:30 GMT Ueda press conference produced a fast 80-pip flush to 156.50, but that false break was reclaimed within three bars and London has printed a new session high at 157.600 with RSI(14) at 67 and ATR(14) near 25 pips.
Support: 157.30, 157.04, 156.50
Resistance: 157.60, 158.00
What it said to watch
Close back under 157.300 prior high would end the higher-high chain
Loss of 157.040 swing low re-opens the 156.50 ueda low
Acceptance above 157.600 session high exposes the 158.000 round number
US Industrial Production 13:15 GMT is the only scheduled risk into the NY session
08:01 UTC
Uptrend, impulsive and extended · RSI 64 · price 157.434
Higher highs / higher lows since Asia, new session high on the last bars.
USDJPY broke the Asian range higher on the BoJ's in-line 1.25% hike after the soft 1.7% core CPI print, then spiked down to 156.50 on the Ueda press conference before fully reclaiming the move — a false break that was bought back within three bars. Early London has printed a fresh session high at 157.54 with RSI(14) near 64, so momentum is intact without being stretched; ATR(14) at roughly 25 pips shows volatility still elevated versus the pre-BoJ Asian hours.
Support: 156.92, 156.50, 156.00
Resistance: 157.54, 158.00
What it said to watch
Close back under the 156.92 swing low breaks the higher-low chain built since the Ueda spike low at 156.50
Acceptance above the 157.54 session high opens the path toward the 158.00 psych level
A slide back under the 156.00 psych pivot would argue the post-BoJ leg is complete
Residual BoJ/MoF commentary and US Industrial Production at 13:15 GMT could reshape this read within the session
Higher lows from 156.17, session high 157.32 untested since.
The in-line BoJ hike to 1.25% squeezed freshly built yen longs during late Asia, lifting USD/JPY off the 156.17 pre-BoJ base through 156.90 to a 157.32 session high. Ueda's 06:30 GMT presser then produced an 80-pip flush to the 156.50 presser low that was fully recovered inside two bars, leaving price back on the ema20 near 157.05 with RSI(14) reset to ~54 and ATR(14) at 23 pips.
Support: 157.02, 156.50, 156.17
Resistance: 157.32, 157.15
What it said to watch
Acceptance back above the 157.15 intraday cap puts the 157.32 session high back in play
A close below the 156.50 presser low invalidates the false-break read and confirms a lower low
Ueda Q&A headlines plus Fed's Bowman (07:30 GMT) and US Industrial Production (13:15 GMT) can re-price this range within the next few bars
07:17 UTC
Uptrend stalled after sharp reversal off highs · RSI 56 · price 156.943
HH/HL chain from Asia lows broken by the 06:30 GMT spike; now rebuilding above 156.50.
Tokyo hours squeezed USD/JPY out of the 156.17 breakout base to a 157.32 session high as the fully-priced BoJ hike to 1.25% triggered a sell-the-fact unwind of fresh yen longs. Ueda's 06:30 GMT presser then dumped price 80 pips to 156.50 in a single bar before it recovered to 156.94, back above the 156.89 ema20; RSI(14) has cooled to 56 and ATR(14) is elevated at 21 pips.
Support: 156.89, 156.50, 156.17
Resistance: 157.11, 157.32
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 157.11 rebound high would repair the broken HH/HL chain
Failure to hold the 156.50 presser low exposes the 156.17 breakout base
Ueda presser still live — further hawkish detail on hike pacing would invalidate the recovery read
Fed's Bowman 07:30 GMT and US Industrial Production 13:15 GMT are the next scheduled risks to this range
07:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend, sharp reversal off session high · RSI 45 · price 156.749
HH/HL chain from the BoJ breakout broken by a single 80-pip rejection bar; price back inside the 50% retracement of that leg.
The BoJ's in-line 25bp hike to 1.25% plus the firmer ex-fresh-food CPI print powered USD/JPY out of the Asian range from 156.13 to a 157.32 session high. Ueda's press conference then erased 80 pips in one bar to 156.50, leaving price back under the ema20 at ~156.90 and roughly on the 50% level of the BoJ leg, with RSI(14) cooling from the mid-70s to the mid-40s. ATR(14) is 20 pips.
Support: 156.50, 156.30
Resistance: 156.90, 157.32
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the ema20 near 156.90 would restore the breakout structure
Failure to hold the 156.50 spike low exposes the 156.30 break base and the Asia support line
Fed's Bowman at 07:30 GMT and any further Ueda remarks can re-price this read within the hour
Higher highs / higher lows since the BoJ decision, now consolidating under the session high.
USD/JPY broke out of the 155.90–156.30 Asian range on the in-line BoJ hike to 1.25%, a classic sell-the-fact yen unwind that ran 120 pips to a session high of 157.324. Price is now consolidating in the upper third of that move, holding the 157.03 swing low, with RSI(14) near 66 and ATR(14) around 20 pips.
Support: 157.03, 156.89, 156.13
Resistance: 157.324
What it said to watch
Ueda press conference at 06:30 GMT is the live catalyst and can invalidate this read either way
15m close above 157.324 session high would extend the higher-high chain
Loss of the 157.03 swing low, then 156.89 pullback low, breaks the post-breakout HH/HL sequence
Only a return under 156.13 pre-boj low would fully reverse the breakout
06:31 UTC
Uptrend, impulsive then flattening · RSI 74 · price 157.149
Post-BoJ breakout, HH/HL chain now consolidating under session high.
The fully-priced BoJ hike to 1.25% triggered a sell-the-fact yen unwind: USDJPY ripped from 156.13 to a session high of 157.32 in under three hours of Tokyo trade, clearing the week's 155.34–156.41 cap. Price is now consolidating in a tight 157.08–157.32 shelf with RSI(14) near 74 and ATR(14) around 19 pips, well above EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 157.08, 156.88
Resistance: 157.32, 157.50
What it said to watch
Ueda press conference at 06:30 GMT is the live catalyst and can reverse this read outright
A 15m close above the 157.32 session high opens the 157.50 psych area
Loss of the 157.08 swing low, then the 156.88 post-boj low, breaks the HH/HL chain
Resistance at 157.32 — area to monitor for rejection or break as London opens
06:16 UTC
Uptrend, impulsive but extended · RSI 77 · price 157.185
Higher highs / higher lows since the Asia-session BoJ spike; shallow pullbacks holding.
The fully-priced BoJ hike to 1.25% triggered a sell-the-fact JPY unwind in the Asia session: USDJPY ripped from the 156.13 pre-boj low to a 157.32 session high in under four hours, RSI(14) near 77. Price is consolidating just under that session high, with the 157.08 swing low so far containing the pullback and ATR at ~21 pips per bar.
Support: 157.08, 156.88, 156.13
Resistance: 157.32, 157.50
What it said to watch
Ueda press conference at 06:30 GMT is the immediate catalyst for this window
M15 close back below the 157.08 swing low breaks the higher-low chain built off the pre-boj low
Acceptance above the 157.32 session high opens the 157.50 psych area — zone to monitor for rejection or break
A slide through 156.88 pullback low would retrace the bulk of the BoJ impulse
Higher highs / higher lows off the post-BoJ spike low, first rejection at session high.
USD/JPY ripped roughly 115 pips out of the BoJ's fully-priced 1.25% hike, a textbook sell-the-fact JPY unwind that broke the 156.13–156.32 Asian range and printed a session high at 157.32. The last two bars rejected that high and price is holding just above the 157.03 swing low, with RSI(14) near 74 — hot but not extreme — and ATR(14) at ~20 pips.
Support: 157.03, 156.88
Resistance: 157.32, 157.50
What it said to watch
Ueda press conference at 06:30 GMT is the dominant catalyst and can invalidate this read in a single bar
M15 close back below 157.03 swing low would break the higher-low chain and expose 156.88 pullback low
Close above the 157.32 session high opens the path toward the 157.50 psych level
Failure to reclaim 157.32 on the next attempt would mark a double top at the session high
Post-BoJ breakout, higher highs and higher lows since 03:00 GMT.
The fully-priced BoJ hike to 1.25% triggered a sell-the-fact JPY unwind: USD/JPY broke the 156.32 asian high on the 03:00 GMT bar and has ground up to a 157.32 session high in a clean higher-high/higher-low chain. RSI(14) near 78 is hot and ATR has widened to ~18 pips, with the shallowest pullback low so far at 156.94.
Support: 156.94, 156.55, 156.32
Resistance: 157.32, 158.00
What it said to watch
Ueda press conference at 06:30 GMT is the next catalyst and can materially reshape this read
A break of the 156.94 pullback low would end the higher-low chain built since the BoJ bar
Acceptance above the 157.32 session high extends the leg toward the 158.00 psych area
Failure to hold 156.55 spike low would put the pre-BoJ 156.32 asian high back in play
05:31 UTC
Uptrend, impulsive and extended · RSI 78 · price 157.257
Higher highs / higher lows since the BoJ impulse, Asian range broken above.
The BoJ's fully-priced hike to 1.25% was met with JPY selling — a 110-pip vertical leg out of the 156.13–156.31 Asian range took the pair to a session high at 157.27, with the impulse base at 156.55 untested since. Pullbacks have been shallow, holding the spike low at 156.89 and then the 157.03 swing low, and price is stretched above EMA20/EMA50 with RSI(14) near 78. Late-Asia hours have price pressing the 157.30 round number.
Support: 157.03, 156.89, 156.55
Resistance: 157.27, 157.30
What it said to watch
Ueda press conference 06:30 GMT, roughly an hour out — binary for this intraday structure
Acceptance above the 157.30 round number would extend the post-BoJ impulse
A close back under the 157.03 swing low breaks the higher-low chain built since the impulse
Loss of 156.89 spike low would put the 156.55 impulse base back in play
05:16 UTC
Uptrend, impulsive then pausing · RSI 77 · price 157.117
Post-breakout consolidation just under the session high, higher lows intact.
The fully-priced BoJ hike to 1.25% triggered a sell-the-fact move in JPY: USDJPY ripped from 156.13 to 157.14 in three bars during late Asia, clearing the whole prior 24h range. Price has since coiled between the 156.88 spike base and the 157.15 session high with RSI(14) near 77 — hot but not extreme — and ATR at ~20 pips per bar.
Support: 156.88, 156.55, 156.17
Resistance: 157.15, 157.30
What it said to watch
Ueda press conference 06:30 GMT (~1h) is the binary for this move — a cautious tone or a nimble-hike message would materially reshape the read
A 15m close above the 157.15 session high opens the 157.30 next barrier
Loss of the 156.88 spike base would put the 156.55 boj bar low back in play and break the higher-low chain
Failure to hold above 156.17 pre-boj base would fully retrace the impulse
05:01 UTC
Uptrend, impulsive post-BoJ leg · RSI 75 · price 157.117
Higher highs and higher lows since the 156.13 base; consolidating just under session high.
The fully-priced BoJ hike to 1.25% triggered a 'sell the fact' impulse off the 156.13 pre-boj base, with price adding roughly 100 pips into the 157.151 session high in late Asia hours. Pullbacks have been shallow — the 156.885 swing low held and RSI(14) near 74 is hot but consistent with a fresh breakout; ATR(14) has expanded to ~17 pips.
Support: 156.885, 156.133
Resistance: 157.151, 157.30
What it said to watch
Ueda press conference ~90 minutes away is the binary for this leg — a hawkish tone could void the breakout read
A close back below the 156.885 swing low would break the higher-low chain
Acceptance above the 157.151 session high puts the 157.30 upside mark in play
The BoJ hike to 1.25% triggered a sell-the-fact yen unwind in late Asia: USDJPY ripped from the 156.17 pre-boj high through the whole overnight range to a 157.143 session high in four bars. Price has since coiled 156.88–157.14 with RSI(14) around 73 rolling over, holding well above EMA20 and EMA50; the spike low at 156.549 marks the base of the impulse.
Support: 156.885, 156.549, 156.17
Resistance: 157.143, 157.30
What it said to watch
BoJ press conference (Ueda) at 06:30 GMT — guidance is the live driver and could materially shift this read within the next bars
A 15m close back below the 156.885 swing low would break the post-breakout consolidation and put 156.549 spike low back in play
Acceptance above the 157.143 session high opens the path to the 157.30 next marker
Loss of 156.17 pre-boj high would negate the breakout entirely
Impulsive HH/HL chain off 156.13, stalling under session high.
The BoJ's in-line 25bp hike to 1.25% triggered a sell-the-fact squeeze in the Asia session: USDJPY ran ~100 pips from the 156.13 pre-BoJ low to a 157.14 session high, clearing the pre-BoJ high at 156.32 in three bars with RSI(14) near 75. Last three bars have gone sideways to lower under 157.05 while holding well above the 156.55 spike low — pause, not reversal, so far.
Support: 156.55, 156.32, 156.13
Resistance: 157.14, 157.30
What it said to watch
Ueda presser at 06:30 GMT is the live risk to this post-BoJ structure
Close above the 157.14 session high extends the breakout toward the 157.30 round number
Loss of the 156.55 spike low puts the mid of the post-BoJ impulse back in play
A slip back under the 156.32 pre-boj high would negate the breakout entirely
Post-BoJ impulse break of the Asian range, first pause below the session high.
The fully-priced BoJ hike to 1.25% triggered a sell-the-fact yen unwind: USDJPY ripped ~100 pips off the 156.13 pre-boj low through the 156.31 pre-boj high to a 157.143 session high in four bars. The last two candles have stalled and closed back at 156.997, with RSI(14) near 73 and ATR(14) around 15 pips after the expansion.
Support: 156.65, 156.31, 156.13
Resistance: 157.143, 157.30
What it said to watch
Ueda press conference at 06:30 GMT is the dominant near-term risk for this read
M15 close above the 157.143 session high opens the path to the 157.30 next level
Loss of the 156.65 spike base would fill the impulse candle and question the breakout
Acceptance back below the 156.31 pre-boj high returns price into the pre-decision range
Vertical break of the Asian range, HH/HL chain intact.
Price broke vertically out of the Asian range on the in-line BoJ hike to 1.25%, running from the 156.13 asian low through the 156.30 prior range top to a session high of 157.14 in four bars. RSI(14) at 82 is genuinely stretched and the last bar has stalled just under the high; the 156.55 spike low is the first structural reference behind the move.
Support: 156.55, 156.30, 156.13
Resistance: 157.14, 157.30
What it said to watch
Ueda press conference at 06:30 GMT (~2.5h) is the live driver for this move
Loss of 156.55 spike low would mark the breakout as a false break
A close above 157.14 session high opens the 157.30 upside ref
RSI above 80 with ATR at 18 pips means retracements can be fast
Asian range top broken, higher highs into the session high.
The in-line BoJ hike to 1.25% triggered a sell-the-fact yen unwind: three consecutive M15 bars added ~90 pips, clearing the 156.17 breakout base and the Asian range top to print a session high at 157.05. RSI(14) at 80 is stretched even for a trend impulse, and the last bar is a thin 5-pip inside candle just under the high; ATR(14) has expanded to ~17 pips.
Support: 156.55, 156.17
Resistance: 157.05, 157.30
What it said to watch
Ueda press conference ~06:30 GMT, under 3h away, is the next binary for this leg
Loss of the 156.55 spike low would mark the breakout as a false break
A close back below the 156.17 breakout base invalidates the breakout read
Acceptance above the 157.05 session high exposes the 157.30 next pivot
03:31 UTC
Impulsive uptrend, post-event leg · RSI 78 · price 156.853
Breakout above the asian range, unbroken higher highs since 23:00 UTC.
The BoJ decision (hike fully priced) triggered a sell-the-fact yen unwind: two candles took USD/JPY from 156.13 through the asian high at 156.32 to a spike high of 156.95, with RSI(14) near 78 and ATR(14) expanding to ~17.5 pips. Price is consolidating in the top few pips of that move, so the pre-boj top at 156.17 and the spike low at 156.55 now frame the breakout base.
Support: 156.55, 156.32, 156.17
Resistance: 156.95, 157.00
What it said to watch
Ueda press conference at 06:30 UTC is the larger event risk and can invalidate this intraday read entirely
Acceptance above 156.95 spike high opens the round number at 157.00
Loss of the 156.55 spike low, then the 156.32 asian high, would mark the move as a false break
Post-spike consolidation with no follow-through is where rejection at the spike high would show
24h range broken to the upside on the BoJ headline; higher high, first pullback bar.
Price sat in a 156.13–156.32 band through the Asian session before the BoJ decision fired a 70-pip vertical bar to 156.86, a classic sell-the-fact yen unwind against fully-priced tightening. First bar after the spike closed back at 156.594, RSI(14) ~73 and ATR(14) inflated to ~15 pips.
Support: 156.32, 156.13, 155.87
Resistance: 156.86, 157.00
What it said to watch
Ueda press conference at 06:30 UTC is the larger catalyst than the decision itself and can re-rate this entire read
Acceptance above the 156.32 range top keeps the breakout intact; a slide back under the 156.13 range base fills the spike and voids it
A close above the 156.86 spike high opens the 157.00 round number
Only a return through the 155.87 asia low would restore the pre-decision downside structure
Higher highs / higher lows off 155.87, now coiling under the session high.
Asia session broke out of the overnight 155.87–156.02 range after the CPI ex-fresh-food beat and ran to a session high of 156.32, with RSI(14) cooling to ~59 as price stalls. The last four bars are pinned between the 156.13 swing low and 156.32 — a tight pre-decision coil, ATR(14) around 10 pips.
Support: 156.13, 156.02, 155.87
Resistance: 156.32
What it said to watch
BoJ decision at 03:00 UTC lands on the next bar and can invalidate this entire intraday read
Ueda press conference 06:30 UTC is the larger two-way event for the session range
A 15m close back under 156.02 range top would negate the Asia breakout
Acceptance above the 156.32 session high extends the higher-high chain
Higher highs / higher lows since the 155.33 day low; last six bars coiling under the session high.
Asia session has extended the recovery off the 155.33 day low, printing a session high at 156.32 before stalling into a 156.16–156.32 coil with RSI(14) near 67. Price holds above EMA20 and EMA50, and the BoJ decision is due within minutes — the 25bp hike is fully priced, so the guidance is the variable.
Support: 156.12, 155.88, 155.33
Resistance: 156.32, 156.50
What it said to watch
BoJ statement at 03:00 GMT and Ueda at 06:30 GMT can invalidate any structural read on this timeframe instantly
A close above the 156.32 session high extends the higher-high chain toward the 156.50 round number
Loss of the 156.12 asia low breaks the HH/HL sequence and puts the 155.88 swing low back in play
HH/HL chain through Asia; prior 24h high taken out.
Asia session has ground up from 155.87 to a 156.32 session high, clearing the prior 24h high and leaving a clean HH/HL chain with RSI(14) near 69 — hot but not extreme. The dip to the 156.14 pullback low was bought within an hour, and price is sitting just under the session high with ATR at ~10 pips, all of it ahead of the BoJ decision.
Support: 156.14, 156.02, 155.87
Resistance: 156.32, 156.50
What it said to watch
BoJ decision at 03:00 GMT, ~30 min out — fully priced 25bp hike; Ueda at 06:30 GMT is the guidance risk and can invalidate this intraday structure instantly
Loss of the 156.14 pullback low breaks the HH/HL chain built through Asia
Acceptance above the 156.32 session high puts the 156.50 psych level in play as the next area to monitor for rejection or break
A slide back under the 156.02 breakout base returns price into the late-NY balance
Higher highs/higher lows off 155.87 Asia low, holding above reclaimed 156.00.
Tokyo hours have run a clean HH/HL chain off the 155.87 Asia low, clearing the 155.94-156.06 congestion and printing a session high at 156.32 with RSI(14) at 64 — hot but not stretched. The overnight CPI ex-fresh-food beat (2.0% vs 1.8%) did not stop the recovery from the 155.33 NY low; ATR(14) at 9 pips, and the last two bars have stalled just under 156.32.
Support: 156.02, 155.87, 155.33
Resistance: 156.32, 156.50
What it said to watch
BoJ decision at 03:00 GMT, inside the next bar hour — dominant driver of this read
Rejection at the 156.32 session high keeps the Asia advance capped; acceptance above opens the 156.50 intraday cap
A close back under 156.02 breakout base invalidates the Asia breakout structure
Loss of 155.87 asia low would confirm a lower low on the intraday chain
Asian range broken to the upside, HH/HL chain intact.
Price spent most of the Tokyo morning coiled between 155.88 and the 156.10 range top before breaking out over the last three hours to a session high at 156.32, with JPY giving back some of Thursday's post-CPI (2.0% vs 1.8% f/c) outperformance. RSI(14) at 71 is hot but not extreme; ATR(14) around 9 pips, and the last bar is a thin stub into the BoJ.
Support: 156.10, 155.88
Resistance: 156.32, 156.50
What it said to watch
BoJ decision at 03:00 GMT (~1h) plus Ueda at 06:30 GMT — dominant driver, can invalidate this read instantly
Reclaim of the 156.10 range top as support keeps the range break valid; a close back below it neutralises it
156.50 psych is the next area to monitor for rejection or acceptance above
Failure to hold 155.88 asia low would restore the pre-breakout range floor
Asian range broken to the upside, HH/HL chain into 24h high.
Late Asia broke the 155.88–156.10 Asian range to the upside and printed a fresh 24h high at 156.30, a clean HH/HL chain off the 155.33 session low. RSI(14) at ~69 is hot but not extreme, ATR(14) ~9 pips; the whole move is positioning ahead of the BoJ decision rather than a reaction to it.
Support: 156.10, 155.88, 155.33
Resistance: 156.30, 156.50
What it said to watch
BoJ decision at 03:00 GMT (~1h) plus Ueda at 06:30 GMT can invalidate this intraday read in a single bar
M15 close above 156.30 session high opens the path toward the 156.50 round number
Loss of 156.10 asian high puts price back inside the Asian range and negates the range break
Failure to hold 155.88 swing low would break the HL chain
01:31 UTC
Uptrend, pressing 24h range high · RSI 71 · price 156.237
Higher highs/higher lows through Asia after London spike low.
Asia session broke out of the 155.94-156.02 coil and ran to 156.282, matching the 24h range high set in early Thursday trade; RSI(14) at 71 is hot but not extreme. Each pullback has been bought at a higher pivot (155.87 then 156.12) with ATR(14) around 10 pips, all of it into the BoJ decision.
Support: 156.12, 155.87
Resistance: 156.28, 156.50
What it said to watch
BoJ decision 03:00 GMT and Ueda 06:30 GMT land inside the next few bars and can invalidate this intraday read entirely
M15 close above the 156.28 range high extends the breakout toward the 156.50 psych level
Loss of the 156.12 pivot low breaks the Asia higher-low chain; 155.87 asia low is the next reference
01:16 UTC
Short-term uptrend, Asia leg extending · RSI 68 · price 156.172
Higher highs / higher lows off 155.33; window high just tagged.
Asia has run USDJPY off the 155.87 session low through the 156.10 NY high to a marginal new window high at 156.28, unwinding Thursday's yen outperformance despite the firm CPI ex-fresh-food print. RSI(14) at 67.5 is hot but not extreme, ATR(14) ~8.5 pips shows the grind is orderly rather than impulsive.
Support: 156.10, 155.98, 155.87
Resistance: 156.28, 156.50
What it said to watch
BoJ decision at 03:00 GMT, roughly 1h45 away, is the dominant risk to this read
Sustained acceptance above the 156.28 session high opens the 156.50 psych area
Loss of the 155.98 asian base breaks the higher-low chain and puts 155.87 session low back in play
Failure to hold the reclaimed 156.10 ny high would mark the Asia break as a false one
01:01 UTC
Short-term uptrend, impulsive leg into BoJ · RSI 66 · price 156.172
Asian range break higher, HH/HL chain intact.
Price spent the late NY and early Asia hours coiling in a 155.87–156.03 band before breaking the range top in the last two hours, printing a session high at 156.28 and a clean HH/HL chain off the asia low. RSI(14) at 66 with ATR(14) near 7 pips — an orderly pre-BoJ squeeze rather than an exhausted one, with Thursday's CPI-driven JPY strength (156.28 recovers most of the 155.33 ny low).
Support: 156.02, 155.87, 155.33
Resistance: 156.28, 156.50
What it said to watch
BoJ decision at 03:00 GMT plus Ueda at 06:30 GMT — the dominant vol source for the next several bars
Loss of 156.02 range top would put price back inside the Asian range and negate the break
Sustained trade above the 156.28 session high opens the 156.50 psych barrier
A drop back under 155.87 asia low would re-establish a lower-low sequence
00:46 UTC
Grinding higher off the NY low, momentum picking up · RSI 73 · price 156.217
Overnight range broken to the upside, higher highs since 155.87.
Price spent most of the late NY and early Asia hours coiled in a 155.93–156.06 consolidation before a clean range break into the Asian session, now 156.217 with RSI(14) near 73 and ATR(14) around 6.6 pips. The 155.33 swing low from the US session has held, and the advance is running back at the 156.275 prior high after Thursday's firmer Tokyo CPI ex-fresh-food had earlier supported the yen.
Support: 156.06, 155.87, 155.33
Resistance: 156.275, 156.50
What it said to watch
BoJ decision at 03:00 GMT and the Ueda presser at 06:30 GMT are the dominant near-term risk for this read
Acceptance above 156.275 prior high opens the 156.50 psych area
A close back inside 156.06 range top invalidates the range break; loss of 155.87 session low re-establishes a lower low
00:31 UTC
Short-term recovery, momentum building · RSI 66 · price 156.175
Higher lows off 155.33, Asian range broken to the upside.
Asia session broke out of the 155.94-156.06 Asian range after a dip to the session low at 155.871, price now pressing the session high at 156.203 with RSI(14) near 66 and ATR(14) around 8.6 pips. The whole 24h shape is a recovery off 155.33 during NY hours, with the prior-day high at 156.275 the first unbroken level above.
Support: 156.02, 155.87, 155.66
Resistance: 156.20, 156.27
What it said to watch
BoJ decision at 03:00 GMT (~2.5h away) with a hike to 1.25% fully priced — the Ueda presser is the near-term vol source and can invalidate any intraday read
M15 close above the 156.27 prior-day high would extend the higher-low chain
Loss of 155.87 session low negates the Asian range break and re-opens 155.66 swing low
00:16 UTC
Short-term uptrend off the session low · RSI 69 · price 156.165
Higher highs / higher lows since 155.88, Asian range top cleared.
Asia session firmed after the 23:30 GMT Japan CPI print: price bottomed at the 155.88 session low, then broke the 156.02 retest zone and the descending cap off yesterday's highs in four consecutive up-bars to 156.18. RSI(14) at ~68 is hot but not extreme, ATR(14) ~6.6 pips; next structural obstacle is the 156.24 prior high and the 156.28 day high.
Support: 156.02, 155.88, 155.66
Resistance: 156.24, 156.28
What it said to watch
BoJ decision at 03:00 GMT and Ueda presser 06:30 GMT dominate this read — current micro-structure can be invalidated in a single bar
Rejection at the 156.24 prior high / 156.28 day high would leave the 24h range intact
M15 close back below the 156.02 retest zone puts price back inside the Asian range; loss of 155.88 session low re-opens 155.66 swing low
00:01 UTC
Grinding recovery off the 155.33 low, momentum picking up · RSI 61 · price 156.085
Higher lows since the NY-session spike low; last bars breaking the 155.94–156.05 consolidation.
Asia hours spent six hours coiling in a 155.94–156.05 range before the 23:30 GMT Japan CPI print (core f/c 1.8%) lifted price off the 155.87 session low straight through the range base and up to 156.085. RSI(14) at 61 with ATR(14) only ~5 pips — the break is real but thin, and 156.10 prior high is the immediate cap.
Support: 155.95, 155.87
Resistance: 156.10, 156.21
What it said to watch
BoJ decision 03:00 GMT and Ueda presser 06:30 GMT land inside the next bars — the dominant risk to this read
Close back below 155.95 range base voids the breakout and puts 155.87 session low back in focus
Acceptance above 156.10 prior high opens the 156.21 swing high
Loss of the rising line off 155.33 would end the higher-low chain