USD/JPY AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Friday, 31 July 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/JPY 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
20:46 UTC
Downtrend, accelerating · RSI 24 · price 157.678
Lower highs, lower lows, fresh session low.
Late NY session saw a sharp USD/JPY selloff, breaking 158.00 former support and extending to a session low at 157.632, with RSI(14) oversold near 23. The move fades Friday's rebound over 160.00; each bounce has been sold into a clean lower-high chain.
Support: 157.632, 157.00
Resistance: 158.00, 158.53, 159.00
What it said to watch
M15 reclaim of 158.00 broken support would ease downside pressure
Loss of 157.632 session low opens the 157.00 psych level
158-163 range integrity and lingering MoF/BoJ intervention risk after the week's whipsaw
158.53 swing high and 159.00 round are upside reference caps
20:46 UTC
Downtrend, accelerating · RSI 24 · price 157.678
Lower highs, lower lows; breakdown below 158.00.
USD/JPY sliced through the 158.00 intervention-driven low in late NY, extending to 157.65 with RSI(14) deeply oversold near 24. The rebound off Thursday's 158.00 area has fully unwound; each bounce is being sold and the pair is printing fresh session lows.
Support: 157.65
Resistance: 158.00
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 158.00 needed to neutralise the breakdown; failure keeps lower lows in play
Thin late-NY/rollover liquidity can exaggerate moves in both directions
BoJ intervention risk elevated on any sharp yen move; Labor Cash Earnings Aug 4 23:30 UTC could reprice the read
USDJPY ground lower through the NY session, breaking below 158.50 and printing a fresh low at 158.00 — the recent intervention-driven low zone — as the yen recovers some of the post-BoJ move. RSI(14) is oversold near 31 with the pair pinned to session lows.
Support: 158.00
Resistance: 159.18
What it said to watch
M15 reclaim above 159.18 swing high would ease the downside pressure
A sustained break below 158.00 opens fresh lows; MoF intervention risk elevated near this zone
Labor Cash Earnings Aug 4 23:30 UTC could shift this read via BoJ hike bets
20:31 UTC
Downtrend, at session lows · RSI 32 · price 158.165
Lower highs, lower lows.
USDJPY faded the intervention-driven 158.54-161.00 whipsaw and is breaking down into late NY hours, printing a fresh session low at 158.00 before a shallow bounce to 158.16. RSI(14) near 32, sequence of lower highs from 159.43 intact.
Support: 158.00
Resistance: 158.90, 159.43
What it said to watch
M15 close below 158.00 extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of 158.90 needed to break the lower-high chain
BoJ intervention risk elevated near the 158.00 low after the whipsaw
ISM Manufacturing PMI Mon 14:00 UTC could re-arm the USD read
20:16 UTC
Downtrend, at session lows · RSI 37 · price 158.537
Lower highs, lower lows.
USDJPY slid through the NY session from 160.54 to a session low at 158.16, and a bounce toward 159.24 was rejected, printing a lower high. Price is now retesting the lows near the 158.54 Thursday intervention level, RSI(14) around 37 with ATR ~34 pips per bar.
Support: 158.16, 158.54
Resistance: 159.24
What it said to watch
M15 close below 158.16 confirms a fresh lower low and extends the decline
Reclaim above 159.24 bounce high breaks the lower-high sequence
Sub-158 approaches the Thursday intervention zone — headline/MoF risk
20:16 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs · RSI 43 · price 158.537
Stair-step lower, testing session low.
USDJPY ground lower through NY, printing lower highs off 160.54 after the earlier 158.54 intervention-style spike; session low at 158.16 was tested and held. Price sits back below EMA20/50 near 158.54 with RSI(14) mid-range, no oversold extreme.
Support: 158.16, 158.54
Resistance: 159.50
What it said to watch
M15 close below 158.16 confirms a fresh lower low
Reclaim of 159.50 needed to break the sequence of lower highs
Thin JPY data week; price action dominated by USD flows and intervention risk near 162
NY session drove USD/JPY down to a session low at 158.16 before buyers stepped in, grinding a chain of higher lows back to 159.19. Price now sits above EMA20 but under EMA50, capped below the 159.50 swing high with 160.00 psych overhead.
Support: 158.70, 158.16
Resistance: 159.50, 160.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above 159.50 opens the path back toward 160.00
Failure to hold 158.70 re-exposes the 158.16 session low
Labor Cash Earnings Aug 4 and lingering MoF intervention risk could shift this read
Late NY sold off sharply from 160.50 to a session low at 158.16 as fresh yen strength returned, then buyers stepped in and price has clawed back to 159.09 with RSI(14) recovering to ~49. Move is a corrective bounce inside a broader downtrend; the recent swing high at 159.43 caps the recovery.
Support: 158.16, 158.54
Resistance: 159.43, 160.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above 159.43 invalidates the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold 158.16 reopens the downside below the prior 158.54 low
160.00 psych level and intervention risk remain overhead
ISM Manufacturing (Mon) and Labor Cash Earnings (Aug 4) could shift this read
NY session drove USD/JPY off the 160.88 high down to a session low of 158.16 as post-intervention Yen strength persisted; buyers stepped in and price has ground back to 159.08 with a chain of higher lows. RSI(14) recovered from oversold to mid-40s, but price still sits below EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 158.16
Resistance: 159.43, 160.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above 159.43 swing high opens the path to the 160.00 psych pivot
Failure to hold 158.16 session low confirms a lower low
Labor Cash Earnings Aug 4 and ISM Aug 3 are near-term catalysts that could shift this read
Lower highs, lower lows; recovering off session low.
NY session sold USDJPY from 160.44 down to a session low of 158.16, extending a chain of lower highs and lower lows. Buyers stepped in around 158.50 into the Asia handover and price has bounced to 159.09, but the descending swing highs near 159.55 still cap the recovery.
Support: 158.54, 158.16
Resistance: 159.55, 160.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above 159.55 breaks the descending-highs read
Failure to hold 158.54 re-opens the 158.16 session low
160.00 remains the flagged pivot for intervention risk on rallies
19:32 UTC
Downtrend, bouncing off lows · RSI 46 · price 159.077
Lower highs into session low, rising micro-lows now.
USD/JPY sold off through late NY hours, printing a session low at 158.16 as post-intervention flows lingered, before a modest bounce back to 159.08. RSI(14) has recovered from oversold to near 46; micro-lows are rising off 158.16 but the 159.43 swing high still caps the rebound.
Support: 158.16
Resistance: 159.43, 160.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above 159.43 swing high would extend the recovery toward the 160.00 psych level
Loss of 158.16 session low reopens the downside
JPY Labor Cash Earnings (Aug 4) could materially shift this read
USDJPY sold off through the NY afternoon from 159.5 to a 158.16 session low as suspected MoF intervention flows faded and the Yen retested Tokyo's resolve. Price has since recovered to 159.00 with RSI(14) lifting off oversold near 43; the descending sequence of lower highs stays intact below 159.43.
Support: 158.54, 158.16
Resistance: 159.43
What it said to watch
M15 close above 159.43 negates the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold 158.54 re-opens the 158.16 session low
ISM Manufacturing PMI Mon 14:00 UTC could reshape this read
19:16 UTC
Downtrend, bouncing off lows · RSI 49 · price 159.001
Lower highs, swept session low, recovering.
USDJPY sold off through NY afternoon, sweeping the session low at 158.16 as suspected MoF intervention theme kept pressure on the Dollar. Price has recovered to 159.00, stalling right at the 61.8% retrace of the 159.51-158.16 drop; RSI(14) back to neutral from oversold.
Support: 158.16, 158.54
Resistance: 159.51
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 159.51 swing high negates the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold 158.54 re-opens the 158.16 session low
160.00 pivot remains the broader intervention-fade line above
USD/JPY sold off sharply through the NY session, dropping from 160.4 to a 158.16 low as the Dollar softened and the post-intervention bid faded. Price is grinding back toward 159.00 with RSI(14) recovering from oversold; the 159.43 swing high caps the bounce so far.
Support: 158.16
Resistance: 159.43, 159.88
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 159.43 swing high would extend the recovery toward 159.88
Failure to hold 158.16 session low confirms a fresh lower low
ISM Manufacturing PMI Mon 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
19:01 UTC
Downtrend, bouncing off lows · RSI 43 · price 158.901
Lower highs, lower lows; breakdown from 159.20-159.50 shelf.
Late NY session saw USD/JPY sell off through 159.00 into 158.16, sweeping below the 158.54 intervention low before snapping back to 158.90. RSI(14) recovering off oversold as buyers stepped in at the sweep; the recent recovery high at 159.13 caps the bounce.
Support: 158.54, 158.16
Resistance: 159.13, 159.43
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 159.13 then 159.43 would ease the breakdown read
Sustained loss of 158.54 re-opens 158.16 and confirms a fresh lower low
Labor Cash Earnings Tue 23:30 UTC could shift the JPY read
NY session sold off hard from 160.5 to a 158.16 session low as the earlier intervention-driven Yen bid resurfaced, then buyers stepped in near 158.20 for a bounce back to 158.90. RSI(14) recovering off the low near 42; price now consolidating below its EMAs with 159.13 capping the rebound.
Support: 158.54, 158.16
Resistance: 159.13, 160.00
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 159.13 bounce high would ease the downside pressure
Loss of 158.54 interv floor re-exposes the 158.16 session low
Labor Cash Earnings Aug 4 and intervention risk above 160.00 can shift this read
18:46 UTC
Downtrend, bouncing off lows · RSI 44 · price 158.976
Lower highs and lower lows, recovering from session low.
NY session sold USDJPY through 159.43 into a 158.16 session low as post-intervention yen strength lingered after the BoJ held at 1%. Price is now recovering toward 159.00 off that low, but the sequence of lower highs remains intact and RSI(14) sits mid-range near 43.
Support: 158.16, 158.00
Resistance: 159.43
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 159.43 would break the lower-high chain
Failure to hold 158.00 opens the path to the 158.16 low breaking lower
ISM Manufacturing PMI Mon 14:00 UTC could reshape the USD leg
18:31 UTC
Downtrend, fresh lows · RSI 39 · price 158.741
Lower highs and lower lows off 160.88.
USD/JPY sold off hard through NY hours, dropping from ~160.5 to a 158.16 session low as post-intervention yen strength returned and the corrective dollar bounce faded. Price is bouncing to 158.74 but sits below EMA20/50 with structure printing lower lows; RSI(14) near 38 after the flush.
Support: 158.158, 158.00
Resistance: 159.43
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 159.43 would invalidate the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold 158.00 confirms continuation toward the Thu low area
MoF intervention rhetoric could drive sharp air-pocket moves
18:16 UTC
Downtrend, sharp late-NY leg · RSI 39 · price 158.741
Lower highs, lower lows below 159.00.
USDJPY sold off hard through late NY, breaking 159.00 and printing a session low at 158.158 as post-intervention yen gains faded and dollar momentum stalled. Price bounced to 158.74 but sits well below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) recovering from oversold.
Support: 158.158, 158.00
Resistance: 159.43
What it said to watch
M15 close below 158.00 opens the sub-158 area
Reclaim of 159.43 negates the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold 158.158 confirms downside continuation
18:16 UTC
Downtrend, bounce off lows · RSI 39 · price 158.741
Breakdown then recovery attempt.
USD/JPY broke down through the 159.20 consolidation late in the NY session and swept the 158.16 low before buyers stepped in, price now recovering to 158.74. RSI(14) cooling near 39 off the flush; price still trades below EMA20 and EMA50 after post-intervention yen strength returned.
Support: 158.16, 158.00
Resistance: 159.43
What it said to watch
M15 close below 158.00 psych confirms continuation of the breakdown
Reclaim of 159.43 prior high negates the breakdown read
ISM Manufacturing PMI Mon 14:00 UTC could materially shift the USD leg
USD/JPY sold off sharply through the late NY session, dropping from 160.50 toward the 158.00 Thursday low as post-intervention yen gains and a firmer BoJ inflation tone weighed. Price broke below 159.00 on expanding ranges (ATR ~30 pips) with RSI(14) near 32; the closing bar bounced off 158.158.
Support: 158.158, 158.00
Resistance: 159.43
What it said to watch
Close below 158.00 confirms continuation and exposes the sub-158 area
Reclaim of 159.43 would neutralise the lower-low sequence
MoF intervention rhetoric could inject sharp two-way air-pockets
NY session sold USDJPY off the 160.88 high down to 158.59, breaking below the 159.10-159.50 consolidation and probing Thursday's 158.54 intervention low. RSI(14) around 33 on a heavy final bar; price extended well below EMA20/50 with no sign of stabilisation yet.
Support: 158.54
Resistance: 159.50, 160.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below 158.54 confirms a lower-low and opens the sub-158 area
Reclaim of 159.50 swing high would negate the breakdown
160.00-162.00 remains an intervention-risk zone on any snapback
NY session extended the selloff, USD/JPY snapping below the 159.10–159.55 consolidation and pressing session lows near 158.54 as the yen firmed on the post-BoJ/intervention theme. RSI(14) has slid into the mid-30s with the final bar closing on its low at 158.593.
Support: 158.54, 158.00
Resistance: 159.43
What it said to watch
Close below 158.54 opens the path toward the 158.00 Thu low
Reclaim of 159.43 negates the downside break
Intervention/BoJ headlines keep two-way risk live around 158–160
17:31 UTC
Downtrend, recovering off lows · RSI 52 · price 159.464
Higher lows building off session low.
USD/JPY sold off from 160.4 into a suspected-intervention air-pocket, printing a session low at 158.854 before basing. Price is grinding back up on higher lows into late NY, now 159.46 with RSI(14) near 52, while the 159.55 swing high caps the recovery. Two-way risk stays elevated near 160.00.
Support: 158.854
Resistance: 159.554, 159.86, 160.00
What it said to watch
Close above 159.55 swing high opens path toward 159.86 session high
Loss of 158.854 session low confirms a fresh lower-low
Price near 160.00 keeps intervention-driven two-way volatility live
USD/JPY sold off through the NY session to a 158.85 low after Thursday's suspected BoJ intervention still weighing; buyers stepped in twice near 158.85-158.90 and price is grinding back with a chain of higher lows into late NY. RSI(14) mid-range at 53, price back above EMA20 but capped under EMA50.
Support: 159.18, 158.85
Resistance: 159.55, 159.86, 160.00
What it said to watch
Close above 159.55 opens the path to 159.86 and the 160.00 psych level
Failure to hold 159.18 reopens the 158.85 session low
ISM Manufacturing (Mon) could shift the USD leg of this read
NY session sold USDJPY off from 160.54 down to 158.85 as the post-FOMC dollar softness bled through, and price is now basing between 159.10 and 159.40. RSI(14) has recovered off the lows toward mid-range as the last few bars printed higher lows; the 159.55 swing high caps the bounce.
Support: 159.086, 158.854
Resistance: 159.554
What it said to watch
Close below 158.854 confirms a fresh lower low
Reclaim of 159.554 swing high breaks the intraday downtrend line
USDJPY ~162 intervention zone flagged by MoF remains the broader cap
16:46 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating near lows · RSI 42 · price 159.215
Lower highs, ranging 158.85-159.55.
USDJPY sold off through the NY session from 160.53 to sub-159, extending post-intervention weakness, and is now consolidating between 158.85 and 159.55 with RSI(14) mid-range. Price sits below EMA20 and EMA50 after the leg lower.
Support: 158.85
Resistance: 159.55
What it said to watch
M15 close above 159.55 invalidates the lower-high sequence
Break below 158.85 confirms a fresh lower-low
ISM Manufacturing PMI (Mon) and any MoF intervention headlines could shift this read
USDJPY faded through the NY session from a 160.54 rejection back to the 159.1 area, part of the ongoing unwind of Thursday's intervention rebound. Price is now consolidating between 159.09 and 159.42, holding above the 158.85 session low with RSI(14) mid-range.
Support: 159.09, 158.85
Resistance: 159.42
What it said to watch
M15 close below 159.09 exposes the 158.85 session low
Reclaim of 159.42 swing high challenges the descending highs
Fresh MoF intervention headlines could sharply reprice this read
NY session slid from 160.54 to a session low at 158.85 as JPY firmed on the post-BoJ intervention theme. Price now grinds sideways between 159.09 and 159.55 with RSI(14) near 42; the sequence of lower highs off 160.54 stays intact.
Support: 159.09, 158.85
Resistance: 159.55
What it said to watch
M15 close above 159.55 breaks the chain of lower highs
Loss of 159.09 then 158.85 resumes the down-leg
ISM Manufacturing PMI Mon 14:00 UTC could reset the USD read
16:16 UTC
Downtrend, basing at lows · RSI 41 · price 159.243
Lower highs into a session low base.
NY session sold USDJPY off 160.54 down to 158.85, extending the post-intervention weakness, before basing around 159.2. Price now consolidates 159.08-159.42 below EMA20/50, RSI(14) mid-40s.
Support: 158.854
Resistance: 159.421, 159.554
What it said to watch
Close above 159.554 breaks the lower-high sequence
Break below 158.854 extends the down leg
ISM Manufacturing Mon could reset the USD tone
16:01 UTC
Downtrend, fresh leg lower · RSI 38 · price 159.138
Lower highs, lower lows into NY afternoon.
USD/JPY rolled over from the 160.53 midday high and shed roughly 140 pips into the NY afternoon, now grinding at 159.14 near session lows on the suspected BoJ intervention theme. RSI(14) sits soft near 38 with price pinned below EMA20 and EMA50; sellers have capped every bounce below 159.55.
Support: 158.854, 158.541
Resistance: 159.554
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 159.55 negates the latest lower-high
Break of 158.85 session low opens the 158.54 spike low
Intervention headlines can whip this both ways near-term
15:46 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating at lows · RSI 38 · price 159.217
Lower highs, lower lows after break under 160.00.
USD/JPY sold off through the NY session from 160.54 to a 158.85 low, breaking below the 160.00 psych level with intervention risk keeping the pair heavy. Price is now consolidating in a 159.10–159.55 band, RSI(14) at 38 after the flush.
Support: 158.85, 158.00
Resistance: 159.55, 160.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above 159.55 recent high negates the near-term downside read
Break below 158.85 swing low exposes the 158.00 intervention floor
Fresh MoF intervention headlines could materially shift this read
NY session sold USDJPY off from 160.5 to a session low of 158.85 on renewed JPY strength, in keeping with lingering intervention risk in the 158-163 band. Price is bouncing to 159.38 but the chain of lower highs (160.54 > 159.86 > 159.55) still caps, with RSI(14) sub-42.
Support: 158.854, 158.541
Resistance: 159.554, 159.86
What it said to watch
M15 close above 159.55 breaks the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 158.85 session low exposes the 158.54 intervention low
Fresh MoF intervention headlines remain the dominant catalyst
Series of lower highs and lower lows since NY open.
USDJPY rolled over from 160.54 during NY hours and is grinding lower on broad USD softness post-FOMC, printing a fresh session low at 158.85 before a shallow bounce to 159.13. Lower highs at 159.86 and 159.55 cap the pullbacks with RSI(14) near 37, price below EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 158.85, 158.54
Resistance: 159.55, 159.86
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 159.55 breaks the lower-high sequence and invalidates the downtrend read
Loss of 158.85 session low exposes the 158.54 spike low
Intervention headlines near the 158.00 floor could sharply shift this read
NY session drove USDJPY down from 160.53 through 159.55 to a session low at 158.85, an intervention-sensitive move that reclaimed only to 159.13. RSI(14) near 37, price capped under a falling resistance line; the swing high at 159.55 stands as the near-term ceiling.
Support: 158.85
Resistance: 159.55
What it said to watch
M15 close below 158.85 confirms a fresh lower-low
Reclaim of 159.55 swing high challenges the downtrend read
Fresh MoF/BoJ intervention headlines could trigger spiky two-way moves
Descending lows off 160.54, price at session lows.
NY session sold off from 160.54 down to 159.17, printing a chain of lower highs and lower lows with RSI(14) cooling into the mid-30s. The move fits the fade of Thursday's suspected MoF intervention bounce; sellers capped each bounce below 159.55.
Support: 158.90, 158.54
Resistance: 159.55
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 159.55 breaks the lower-high sequence
Loss of 158.90 session low exposes the 158.54 spike low
Fresh BoJ/MoF intervention headlines could spike two-way risk
NY session sold off hard from the 160.4 consolidation, USD/JPY breaking down through 160.0 to print a session low at 158.90 amid the post-FOMC dollar squeeze and lingering intervention risk. Price is pinned near 159.17 with RSI(14) around 36, a shallow bounce capped by the descending 159.55 swing high.
Support: 158.903, 158.541
Resistance: 159.554, 160.436
What it said to watch
Close below 158.90 session low exposes the 158.54 spike low
Reclaim of 159.55 swing high negates the breakdown
Any fresh MoF/BoJ intervention headline could drive spiky two-way moves
NY session sold USD/JPY hard from 160.54 down to a 158.90 session low as yen strength and residual intervention risk weighed, RSI(14) now sub-30. Price is stalling near 159.17 under a chain of lower highs; the 159.55 lower high caps for now.
Support: 158.90, 158.54
Resistance: 159.55
What it said to watch
Close back above 159.55 breaks the sequence of lower highs
Failure to hold 158.90 session low exposes 158.54 swing low
Fresh MoF/BoJ intervention headlines could spike volatility either way
14:46 UTC
Downtrend, fresh leg lower · RSI 39 · price 159.287
Lower highs, lower lows into NY sell-off.
NY session sold off hard from 160.54 to 158.90, snapping the earlier grind higher amid the suspected BoJ-intervention backdrop. Price now stalls near 159.29 with RSI(14) around 38; the 159.86 swing high caps the bounce.
Support: 158.903, 158.541
Resistance: 159.86, 160.00, 160.54
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 160.00 psych level would negate the breakdown read
Loss of 158.90 session low opens the 158.54 spike low
Renewed MoF/BoJ intervention or jawboning could spike this pair sharply
14:32 UTC
Downtrend, fresh leg lower · RSI 36 · price 159.287
Breakdown from 160.20–160.90 range, printing lower highs.
Sharp late-session selloff dumped price from the 160.54 breakdown level to a 158.90 swing low, unwinding the entire NY-hours grind higher, RSI(14) cooling near 36. The move follows BoJ holding at 1% today after the suspected intervention plunge — pair now trading back below the broken 160.00 shelf.
Support: 158.903
Resistance: 160.54
What it said to watch
M15 close below 158.90 confirms a lower low and extends the leg down
Reclaim of 160.00 would repair the breakdown
Renewed MoF/BoJ intervention risk can spike this pair violently
NY afternoon saw a sharp sell-off from 160.54 down through 159.30, with JPY bid resuming as intervention risk stays live; RSI(14) near 34 but not yet washed out. Sellers pressed each bounce below 159.50, and price is now probing the 159.13 swing low.
Support: 159.13, 158.90
Resistance: 159.50, 160.54
What it said to watch
M15 close below 158.90 confirms a fresh lower low
Reclaim of 159.50 stalls the current slide
Renewed MoF jawboning/intervention could whipsaw this read
USDJPY broke down from the 160.30-160.50 NY consolidation and dumped to 158.90 before recovering to 159.36, RSI(14) near 37. Earlier rejection at the 160.88 session high set the lower-high chain into the breakdown; price now trades below EMA20/50.
Support: 158.903, 158.541
Resistance: 160.30, 160.879
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 160.30 negates the breakdown
Failure to hold 158.90 opens 158.54
Intervention/jawboning risk elevated near the 158.00 shelf
14:16 UTC
Reversing lower off NY highs · RSI 41 · price 159.482
Range break down, lower high forming.
USDJPY sold off sharply in the last hour of the NY session, dropping from 160.53 through the 160.20 range floor to 159.48 and printing a lower high versus the 160.88 earlier peak. RSI(14) has cooled to the low 40s with price back below EMA20/50; the day's suspected intervention keeps two-way risk elevated.
Support: 159.13, 158.54
Resistance: 160.20, 160.53
What it said to watch
Reclaim above 160.20 range floor invalidates the breakdown read
Failure to hold 159.13 session low confirms a lower low toward 158.54 spike low
Renewed MoF intervention/jawboning could spike price violently either way
14:02 UTC
Rolling over from session highs, downside momentum · RSI 41 · price 159.482
Lower high in place, broke below 160.00.
USDJPY carved a rounded top near 160.88 through the London session then rejected the 160.45 range top and dropped sharply through the 160.00 psych level into NY, printing 159.13. Yen strength here fits the post-BoJ / intervention-watch backdrop; price now stabilising around 159.48 after a ~130-pip leg down.
Support: 159.135, 158.541
Resistance: 160.00, 160.45, 160.879
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 160.00 psych would neutralise the downside break
Failure to hold 159.135 session low confirms a lower low toward the 158.54 spike low
UoM sentiment & inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could add volatility to this read
13:47 UTC
Intraday pullback, momentum down · RSI 44 · price 159.764
Sharp rejection off 160.45, sweep to 159.13, bounce.
NY session saw a hard rejection at the 160.45 prior high, then a sweep down to 159.135 before buyers lifted price back toward 159.76; RSI(14) at 44 as momentum turns lower. Price now sits below EMA20/50 with the 160.00 psych level capping any recovery.
Support: 159.135, 158.541
Resistance: 160.00, 160.45
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 160.00 psych opens a retest of the 160.45 prior high
Loss of the 159.135 swing low exposes the 158.54 spike low
UoM sentiment & inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could shift the USD read
Grind higher rejected at 160.54, snapping back to 50% of the leg.
NY session ground up to 160.54 before a sharp one-bar rejection dumped price ~90 pips back to 159.50, into the 50% retrace of the 158.54-160.54 leg. RSI(14) cooled from the low-60s toward 43 as the last candle closed heavy; 159.47 is the immediate shelf.
Support: 159.47, 159.00, 158.54
Resistance: 160.00, 160.54
What it said to watch
M15 close below 159.47 opens 159.00
Reclaim of 160.00 needed to resume the grind toward 160.54
NY session repeatedly rejected the 160.45 range top before a ~100-pip flush into 159.50 on the last bar, unwinding the earlier recovery off the 158.54 intervention spike. Price now sits below EMA20/50 with RSI cooling to the low 40s.
Support: 159.47, 158.92
Resistance: 160.45
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 160.45 negates the breakdown read
Failure to hold 159.47 confirms a lower low toward the 158.92 spike low
Renewed MoF/BoJ intervention risk remains the dominant near-term swing factor
USDJPY ground back up from the intervention lows near 158.54 through the NY session, tagged a session high at 160.54, then dumped ~100 pips in a single bar to 159.47 — a sharp rejection of the highs. Price now sits mid-range near the 50% retrace of that recovery leg, below EMA20/50.
Support: 159.47, 159.00, 158.54
Resistance: 160.00, 160.54
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 160.00 would re-open the 160.54 session high
Loss of 159.47 confirms a lower-low toward 159.00
Renewed MoF intervention/jawboning remains the dominant near-term risk
NY session grinding higher, reclaiming 160.40 after buyers stepped in at the 158.54 intervention low and again at 159.42; USD/JPY has rebuilt a chain of higher lows as the yen gave back post-BoJ gains. RSI(14) near 64, room before overbought; 160.74 swing high caps the recovery for now.
Support: 160.00, 159.42, 158.54
Resistance: 160.74, 160.88
What it said to watch
Close above 160.74 opens the path to the 160.88 prior high
Loss of 160.00 psych level breaks the higher-low chain
Renewed MoF/BoJ intervention risk grows as price grinds back toward 163
NY session grinding steadily higher off the intervention-driven session low at 158.54, printing a clean HH/HL chain into 160.45 as the yen hands back post-intervention gains following the BoJ hold at 1%. Price sits just under session-high resistance with RSI(14) around 63, room before overbought.
Support: 160.00, 158.54
Resistance: 160.45, 160.74
What it said to watch
M15 close above 160.74 opens the path to prior highs
Loss of 160.00 round number threatens the recovery structure
Renewed BoJ/MoF intervention risk near 160 could sharply shift this read
Higher lows off intervention low, testing session high.
USD/JPY has ground back above 160.00 through the NY session after the suspected intervention flush to 158.54, with BoJ's hold at 1% doing little to slow the yen give-back. Buyers built a chain of higher lows and price is now pressing the session high at 160.45; RSI(14) firm near 61 but not stretched.
Support: 160.00, 158.54
Resistance: 160.45
What it said to watch
US UoM sentiment/inflation expectations (~14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Loss of 160.00 round number breaks the recovery structure and reopens 158.54
Renewed FX intervention risk grows the closer price grinds toward 163
USD/JPY has clawed back the intervention flush to 158.54, grinding higher into the NY session as the BoJ hold and rate-gap flows re-assert. Price is riding a chain of higher lows toward the 160.60 swing, RSI(14) mid-60s with room before overbought; 160.00 psych holding as the recovery pivot.
Support: 160.00
Resistance: 160.60, 160.88
What it said to watch
M15 close above 160.60 opens the path to the 160.88 session high
Failure to hold 160.00 psych breaks the rising-support chain
Renewed FX intervention headlines could invalidate the recovery instantly
USD/JPY has clawed back the suspected-intervention flush that dumped it from ~162.9 to 158.54, grinding up through the NY session to 160.44 into the session high band. RSI(14) around 64, chain of higher lows intact off the 158.54 low; the 160.54 session high and 160.74 prior high cap the recovery for now.
Support: 159.88, 158.54
Resistance: 160.54, 160.74, 160.88
What it said to watch
Break above 160.88 swing high extends the recovery leg
Loss of 159.88 swing low breaks the higher-low chain, exposing 158.54 session low
UoM sentiment/inflation expectations ~14:00 UTC could shift this read
Renewed FX intervention risk on any push back toward 163
Suspected MoF intervention crushed USDJPY to 158.54 yesterday; yen has since given it back, price grinding steadily off the low and now retesting 160.00 from above. RSI(14) near 63, room before extremes, with 160.64 the next supply and the 160.88 session high above.
Support: 160.00, 159.42, 158.54
Resistance: 160.64, 160.88
What it said to watch
Close above 160.88 extends the recovery toward the pre-intervention area
Loss of 160.00 round number exposes 159.42 swing low
Renewed MoF intervention risk grows the closer price grinds back toward 163
USDJPY is grinding back up from the 158.54 intervention flush, printing a steady chain of higher lows into 160.40 as the yen hands back gains after the BoJ held at 1%. RSI(14) near 63 with room, price holding above the 160.00 round number; 160.55 swing high is the next area to watch for rejection or break.
Support: 160.00
Resistance: 160.55
What it said to watch
M15 close below 160.00 breaks the rising support and the higher-low chain
Renewed MoF intervention/jawboning risk if the grind extends toward 163.00
US ECI/UoM prints in the next few hours could shift USD tone
Higher lows off 158.54, consolidating near session highs.
USD/JPY has clawed back to 160.23 after the suspected BoJ intervention flush to 158.54, with a clean chain of higher lows since. Price is consolidating 160.10–160.27 into NY hours, RSI(14) mid-range near 59 with room either way.
Support: 159.85, 158.54
What it said to watch
Close below 159.85 breaks the higher-low chain
US data 12:30–14:00 GMT (ECI, Chicago PMI, UoM) could shift this read
Renewed MoF/BoJ intervention risk remains the dominant near-term wildcard
USDJPY is grinding higher into the London-NY transition, pressing the 160.27 session high after a violent flush to 158.54 tied to suspected MoF intervention and the BoJ hold. Micro-structure is a clean HH/HL chain off the spike low, retracing ~38% of the larger 162.96-158.54 leg, RSI(14) around 61.
Support: 159.90, 158.54
Resistance: 160.27, 160.54
What it said to watch
M15 close above 160.27 opens the path to 160.54
Loss of 159.90 threatens a retest of the 158.54 spike low
ECI (12:30 GMT) and UoM sentiment/inflation (14:00 GMT) plus renewed intervention risk could reshape this read within the next bars
Two intervention spikes into 158.5 bought back, now consolidating below 160.50 pivot.
London-NY transition sees USD/JPY grinding higher off the 158.54 spike low from suspected MoF intervention, now stalling just below the 160.50 pivot with RSI(14) mid-range near 56. BoJ's hold at 1.00% drew dip-buyers back in, and the recovery has been an orderly climb rather than an impulsive push.
Support: 160.00, 159.42, 158.54
Resistance: 160.50, 160.74
What it said to watch
Close above 160.50 pivot opens the 160.74 swing high
Loss of 160.00 psych exposes 159.42 then the 158.54 spike low
Intervention/MoF headline risk elevated as price approaches recent highs
USDJPY has clawed back the 158.54 intervention spike, grinding higher into 160.25 as the dollar bounced back above 100.00 on the safe-haven bid. Price is coiling in a tight 159.90–160.25 band with RSI(14) mid-range near 58; the recovery is orderly but capped at the session high.
Support: 159.90, 158.54
Resistance: 160.25, 160.55, 160.74
What it said to watch
M15 close above 160.55 opens the path to the 160.74 day high
Loss of 159.90 range low reopens the 158.54 intervention area
MoF intervention headline risk elevated as price re-tests recent highs
US ECI / UoM data due 12:30-14:00 GMT could shift the USD leg
11:47 UTC
Recovering off intervention lows · RSI 57 · price 160.151
Higher lows building back toward 160.50 pivot.
USDJPY is grinding back toward the 160.50 pivot after a London-session flush to 158.54 was bought — the second retest of the intervention-driven lows to hold, with BoJ on hold at 1.00%. RSI(14) sits mid-range near 57 and ATR is elevated at ~39 pips on intervention-era volatility.
Support: 159.85, 158.54
Resistance: 160.55, 160.88
What it said to watch
ECI at 12:30 UTC could shift the USD leg of this read
Break above the 160.55 pivot opens the path to 160.88
Failure to hold 159.85 reopens the 158.54 flush low
Fresh MoF intervention headlines are a two-way risk
Grinding up off the intervention low, higher lows into 160.15.
USD/JPY collapsed to 158.54 on suspected MoF intervention, then dip-buyers stepped in and marched price back to 160.15 in a clean chain of higher lows. Currently pressing the 160.15 area with RSI near 61; the 160.50 pivot and prior high above cap the recovery.
Support: 159.82, 158.54
Resistance: 160.55, 160.88
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 160.55 prior high opens the path back toward the 160.88 day high
Loss of 159.82 swing low breaks the higher-low chain
US ECI at 12:30 UTC plus Chicago PMI / UoM could inject a sharp USD move
Fresh MoF intervention headlines near recent highs remain a two-way risk
USDJPY swept the 158.54 flush low during London hours — the same shelf tied to Thursday's suspected BoJ intervention — then recovered in a steady HH/HL chain back to 160.14. Price sits above EMA20 but under EMA50, with RSI(14) near 61 as the recovery zone at 160.50 looms overhead.
Support: 159.92, 158.54
Resistance: 160.50, 160.88
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 160.50 recovery zone opens the path toward the 160.88 session high
Loss of 159.92 breaks the HL chain and questions the recovery
US ECI at 12:30 UTC (~1h) could shift this read
Near intervention zone — sharp two-way spikes possible on official headlines
11:31 UTC
Recovering after intervention flush, now flat · RSI 55 · price 160.139
Tight consolidation above reclaimed 160.00.
London-morning flush swept to 158.54 on intervention jitters before buyers reclaimed 160.00; price now coils tight between 159.87 and 160.16. RSI(14) neutral near 55 and ATR still elevated at ~38 pips from the spike. ECI at 12:30 UTC is the immediate risk into the NY session.
Support: 159.87, 158.54
Resistance: 160.16, 160.54
What it said to watch
M15 close above 160.16 range top opens 160.54 swing high
Loss of 159.87 range floor exposes the 158.54 flush low
Higher lows off 158.54, tight consolidation at 160.00.
USDJPY flushed to 158.54 on suspected intervention flows early NY then reclaimed the round 160.00 handle after the hawkish-lite BoJ hold. Price is now coiled in a tight 159.9-160.1 range, riding a chain of higher lows but capped below the 160.50 recovery zone.
Support: 159.42, 158.54
Resistance: 160.14, 160.50, 160.88
What it said to watch
M15 close above 160.50 recovery zone opens 160.88 session high
Failure to hold 159.42 swing low re-exposes the 158.54 intervention low
Intervention headlines remain the dominant near-term risk
11:16 UTC
Recovering after flush, now flat · RSI 49 · price 160.008
Tight range above spike low.
USDJPY flushed to 158.54 mid-window on suspected MoF intervention after the BoJ hold, then snapped back above 160.00 and is now coiling in a tight 159.9-160.1 range beneath the 160.88 swing high. RSI(14) is neutral near 49 with price pinned to the 160.00 round number.
Support: 159.42, 158.54
Resistance: 160.14, 160.54, 160.88
What it said to watch
M15 close below 159.42 reopens the path toward the 158.54 spike low
Reclaim of 160.54 puts the 160.88 swing high back in play
Fresh intervention headlines or US Chicago PMI / UoM data later today could jolt this read
Recovery stall under 160.20 after sweep of 158.54.
USDJPY flushed to 158.54 in a sweep before recovering to sit right on the 160.00 psych level, RSI(14) back to neutral near 49 after the intervention-driven volatility. Price now coils in a tight 159.9–160.05 band, capped below the 160.20 recent swing.
Support: 159.42, 158.54
Resistance: 160.20, 160.54
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 159.42 swing low reopens the 158.54 flush low
Reclaim of the 160.54 swing high would repair the recovery
Renewed intervention headlines near 160.00 could trigger another sharp flush
11:01 UTC
Recovery off flush, now flat · RSI 52 · price 159.998
Consolidating under 160.00 after intervention sweep.
Suspected-intervention flush swept lows to 157.96 in early London before price clawed back and topped out at the 160.88 recovery high. Now pinned just under the 160.00 round number, RSI(14) neutral near 52 with ATR ~42 pips; a second dip to 158.54 was bought and the base has held.
Support: 159.42, 158.54
Resistance: 160.50, 160.88
What it said to watch
Close above 160.50 congestion opens the path to the 160.88 recovery high
Failure to hold 159.42 swing low exposes the 158.54 intervention shelf
UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 GMT and any fresh intervention headlines could spike this two-way
USD/JPY snapped back off a 158.54 double bottom after Thursday's suspected intervention whipsaw and is now stalling right at the 160.00 round number, RSI cooling to mid-range. Elevated ATR (~42 pips) reflects the two-way intervention tape; the BoJ hold kept structural yen weakness in play.
Support: 159.42, 158.54
What it said to watch
Failure to reclaim 160.00 round number caps the recovery bounce
M15 close below 159.42 swing low reopens the 158.54 double bottom
Fresh MoF intervention headline or US UoM/Chicago PMI data could sharply shift this read
10:31 UTC
Recovery off spike low, capped under 160.00 · RSI 49 · price 159.97
V-bounce from 158.54, consolidating below 160.00.
Two violent air-pocket drops (suspected intervention flows) marked this window — first toward 158.00, then a fresh sweep of 158.54 into the NY session before buyers snapped price back to 160.00. The BoJ hold at 1.00% kept the yen-short bid intact; USDJPY now consolidates just under 160.00 with RSI(14) neutral near 49.
Support: 158.54, 157.96
Resistance: 160.54
What it said to watch
Sustained move below 158.54 reopens the 157.96 session low
Reclaim of 160.54 signals resumption of yen weakness
Fresh MoF/BoJ intervention headline could trigger another air-pocket drop
USD/JPY saw two violent air-pockets in this window — a spike to 158.54 tied to suspected intervention flows — before snapping back above 159.90 as the BoJ on-hold rate-gap trade reasserted. Price is now coiling just under the 160.00 psych level, RSI(14) near 54 after the recovery; range holding between 159.42 and 160.14.
Support: 159.42, 158.54
Resistance: 160.14, 160.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above 160.14 opens the path back toward the 160.50 session high
Failure to hold 159.42 reopens the 158.54 spike low
US ECI, Chicago PMI and UoM sentiment/inflation expectations later today could shift this read
Fresh MoF intervention headline risks a sharp air-pocket lower
Ranging 159.40–160.50 after two intraday sweeps lower.
USD/JPY snapped back from a spike low at 158.54 during London hours — suspected intervention flow — recovering the move to sit near 160.00 into EMA20. RSI(14) neutral around 54 after the bounce; price ranging 159.40–160.50 with the recovery stalling.
Support: 159.42, 158.54
Resistance: 160.50, 160.88
What it said to watch
M15 close above 160.50 opens the path back to session high 160.88
Failure to hold 159.40 exposes the 158.54 dip low
Fresh MoF intervention headlines could trigger sharp two-way spikes
10:16 UTC
Choppy, two-way after flush · RSI 52 · price 159.998
Range 158.50-160.90 post-intervention.
USD/JPY chopped 158.50-160.90 following Thursday's suspected intervention flush; the London session dipped to 158.54 an hour ago and rebounded sharply to reclaim the 160.00 round number. RSI(14) near 52 off the bounce, price sits just below EMA20 (~160.20) with the pair pinned to the wide yield-gap theme.
Support: 158.54, 158.00
Resistance: 160.50, 160.88
What it said to watch
M15 close above 160.50 rebound level opens the path back toward the 160.88 swing high
Failure to hold 158.54 exposes the 158.00 intervention pivot
Fresh MoF intervention headlines can trigger sharp two-way spikes
10:02 UTC
Choppy, recovering off lows · RSI 56 · price 159.998
Sweep of 158.54 then sharp recovery to 160.00.
USD/JPY swept the 158.54 low during the London session then rallied ~150 pips back to the 160.00 round number, where price is now stalling. RSI(14) mid-range near 56 after the bounce; suspected MoF intervention remains the backdrop for these sharp two-way swings.
Support: 160.00, 158.54, 158.00
Resistance: 160.50, 160.88
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 160.50 rebound level would extend the recovery toward the 160.88 day high
Failure to hold the 160.00 psych opens a retest of the 158.54 swing low
Fresh MoF intervention headlines could trigger sharp two-way spikes near the 158.00 pivot
UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could shift the USD leg of this pair
USDJPY swept the session low to 158.54 during London hours then rebounded to 159.85 as the intervention-driven dip faded, RSI(14) recovering near 47. Price trades below EMA20/50 with the 160.00 psych level overhead capping the bounce.
Support: 159.00, 158.54
Resistance: 160.00, 160.54
What it said to watch
M15 close above 160.00 opens the path back toward 160.54
Failure to hold 159.00 reopens the 158.54 sweep low
Intervention headlines remain the dominant driver here
UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could shift this read
Lower highs into a swept session low, snapback in progress.
London session flushed down to 158.54 — a sweep of the session low — before snapping back to 159.85, with suspected JPY intervention headlines driving the two-way volatility. RSI(14) recovering near 46 off the spike; price still holding below EMA20 with the 160.00 round number capping the bounce so far.
Support: 159.42, 158.54
Resistance: 160.00, 160.88
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 160.00 reopens the path toward the 160.88 session high
Failure to hold 159.42 swing low re-exposes the 158.54 spike low
Fresh MoF/BoJ intervention headlines could trigger another sharp move either way
USDJPY was slammed to 158.54 on renewed BoJ intervention flows before a sharp recovery to the 159.86 session high, where price is now stalling. Bounce comes off a rough double bottom near 158.5; 160.29 prior high caps the upside for now.
Support: 159.47, 158.54
Resistance: 159.86, 160.29
What it said to watch
M15 close above 159.86 opens the path to 160.29
Failure to hold 159.47 re-exposes the 158.54 session low
US ECI 12:30 UTC, Chicago PMI 13:45, UoM 14:00 could shift this read
USDJPY plunged again into the London-NY window, sweeping to 158.541 amid suspected BoJ intervention flows before buyers snapped it back to 159.639. Price now holds mid-range near 159.50, roughly the 61.8% retrace of the drop, with RSI(14) recovering off the low into the low-40s.
Support: 158.541
Resistance: 159.639, 160.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above 159.64 negates the lower-high read and reopens 160.00
Failure to hold 158.54 resumes the decline
US ECI at 12:30 UTC could inject fresh volatility
09:16 UTC
Downtrend, bouncing off lows · RSI 44 · price 159.522
Lower highs after intervention plunge, sweep of session low.
USDJPY swept the session low to 158.54 on the suspected BoJ intervention flow, then snapped back to 159.55, RSI(14) recovering from oversold toward 43. Price trades below EMA20/50 and remains capped under 160.00 after carving lower highs from the 160.64 session peak.
Support: 158.541
Resistance: 160.005, 160.641
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 160.00 would negate the lower-high structure
Failure to hold 158.54 sweep low opens further downside
US ECI/Chicago PMI/UoM 12:30-14:00 UTC could reset this read; fresh MoF/BoJ intervention headlines a swing factor
USDJPY rolled over from the 160.50 pivot and is punching fresh session lows near 158.54, with the last bar spiking to 158.54 as suspected BoJ intervention flow reasserts. RSI(14) sub-30 flags a stretched down move, but structure remains a clean chain of lower highs from 160.88.
Support: 158.54, 157.96
Resistance: 160.00, 160.50
What it said to watch
M15 close below 158.54 opens the 157.96 swing low
Reclaim of 160.00 would neutralise the breakdown read
US ECI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Price rolled over from the 160.7-160.9 NY grind and dropped ~215 pips into the close, printing a fresh session low at 158.54 on the suspected BoJ intervention leg. RSI(14) oversold near 29; the 160.00 psych level is now overhead resistance after the breakdown.
Support: 158.54, 157.96
Resistance: 159.00, 160.00
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 158.54 confirms a lower low toward the 157.96 prior low
Reclaim of 159.00 round number would ease the breakdown pressure
US ECI/Michigan (12:30-14:00 GMT) and fresh MoF/BoJ headlines could shift this read sharply
08:46 UTC
Recovery stalling, rolling over · RSI 41 · price 160.013
Lower highs off 160.88, probing 160.00.
USD/JPY rebounded off Thursday's suspected-intervention low near 157.96 and ground back above 160.50, but the recovery stalled at 160.88 and has since faded through lower highs toward the 160.00 psych level. BoJ's hold at 1.00% kept the rate-gap in play, yet momentum has rolled over and RSI(14) sits mid-40s as price presses the session low at 159.92.
Support: 160.00, 159.92, 159.36
Resistance: 160.64, 160.88
What it said to watch
M15 close below 159.92 opens the path toward the 159.36 swing low
Reclaim of 160.64 swing high revives the recovery leg
US ECI/Michigan (12:30–14:00 GMT) could materially shift this read
Renewed MoF/BoJ intervention risk on any push back toward sub-158
USD/JPY clawed back from the sub-158 suspected-intervention spike to 160.88 through the Asian session, but the rally stalled and price is now grinding back toward 160.20 in London hours. Rejection at 160.88 with RSI(14) cooling to the mid-40s; still holding above the 160.00 handle.
Support: 160.16, 159.93, 160.00
Resistance: 160.74, 160.88
What it said to watch
M15 close below 159.93 reopens the sub-160 intervention zone
Reclaim of 160.74 revives the recovery leg toward 160.88
US ECI at 12:30 GMT could shift this read; fresh MoF/BoJ intervention headlines remain a sub-160 risk
08:31 UTC
Recovered off lows, now ranging · RSI 46 · price 160.324
Consolidation under session high after intervention flush.
USDJPY cratered ~480 pips into 158.51 on suspected BoJ intervention, then clawed back above 160 and has been chopping between 160.20 and 160.88 since. Price rejected the 160.88 session high and is now drifting into the lower half of the range, RSI(14) mid at ~46.
Support: 160.20, 159.93
Resistance: 160.74, 160.88
What it said to watch
M15 close below 160.20 opens the 159.93 swing low
Reclaim of 160.74 puts the 160.88 session high back in play
US Employment Cost Index at 12:30 GMT could shift this read
Renewed intervention headlines near sub-160 risk a sharp JPY spike
08:16 UTC
Recovery stalling into range · RSI 47 · price 160.324
Consolidation below session high after sharp drop.
USD/JPY collapsed ~480 pips to 157.96 on suspected BoJ intervention mid-window, then ground back up through the NY session to a 160.88 high. Now consolidating 160.20-160.55, RSI(14) neutral near 47 with price slipping below EMA20.
Support: 160.20, 159.93, 160.00
Resistance: 160.55, 160.88
What it said to watch
M15 close below 160.20 exposes the 160.00 psych and 159.93 dip low
Reclaim of 160.55 opens the 160.88 session high
Fresh MoF/BoJ intervention headlines are the dominant near-term risk
US ECI 12:30 UTC and Chicago PMI 13:45 UTC could shift the tape
08:16 UTC
Recovery off lows, stalling · RSI 46 · price 160.281
Consolidation below session high after intervention plunge.
USD/JPY snapped ~480 pips lower on suspected BoJ intervention to 157.96, then clawed back through NY hours but stalled repeatedly below the 160.88 session high. Now ranging 160.20–160.88, pulled back to 160.28 with RSI(14) neutral near 46.
Support: 160.20, 159.93
Resistance: 160.88
What it said to watch
M15 close above 160.88 session high extends the recovery leg
Loss of 159.93 reopens the path back toward the 157.96 intervention low
US ECI 12:30 UTC / Chicago PMI 13:45 UTC could break the range
Fresh intervention headlines remain the dominant near-term driver
Consolidating below session high after sharp drop.
USDJPY collapsed ~480 pips below 159 on suspected BoJ intervention, then clawed back to grind between 160.29 and the 160.88 session high through the London session. Price is holding above EMA20/50 with RSI neutral near 53; rejection capped the 160.88 prior high while buyers stepped in at the 159.93 swing low.
Support: 160.29, 159.93, 159.50
Resistance: 160.88
What it said to watch
M15 close above 160.88 session high extends the recovery leg
Failure to hold 159.93 swing low reopens the intervention lows toward 159.50
US ECI/Chicago PMI 12:30-14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Consolidating below session high after intervention plunge.
USDJPY cratered ~480 pips below 160 yesterday on suspected BoJ intervention, then clawed back and is consolidating 160.30–160.88 through London hours. RSI(14) sits mid-range near 53 with the recovery grinding sideways under the session high.
Support: 160.30, 159.93
Resistance: 160.88, 161.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above 160.88 opens the path toward the 161.00 psych level
Failure to hold 160.30 risks a retest of the 159.93 spike low
US ECI at 12:30 UTC could reprice the USD side of this pair
Suspected BoJ intervention detonated a ~480 pip collapse to 157.956; NY/late-session buyers rebuilt price back to a 160.88 recovery high. Now consolidating 160.3-160.7 with RSI(14) neutral near 48, price hovering the round number and just under session high.
Support: 160.00
Resistance: 160.75, 160.88
What it said to watch
M15 close above 160.75 opens path back toward the 160.88 recovery high
Loss of the 160.00 round number reopens the intervention-low zone
ECI at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations could shift this read
Range after intervention crash, recent lower push.
USD/JPY collapsed ~480 pips on suspected BoJ intervention early in the window, bottoming at 158.85, then recovered into a 160.30–160.88 range through the NY session. Last bars slipped to a 159.93 swing low before reclaiming 160.37; RSI(14) mid-range with price back below EMA20.
Support: 159.933, 159.50, 158.845
Resistance: 160.879
What it said to watch
M15 close below 159.93 swing low opens a retest of the 159.50 psych level
Reclaim of the 160.88 session high needed to resume the recovery leg
US ECI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Suspected BoJ intervention crushed USDJPY below 160 earlier in the window, printing a 158.85 intervention low before a choppy recovery to the 160.88 session high. Price then swept the 159.93 swing low and reclaimed the 160.00 psych level; RSI(14) mid-range near 47, consolidating below the 160.54 range top.
Support: 160.00, 159.93, 158.85
Resistance: 160.54, 160.88
What it said to watch
M15 close above 160.88 session high resumes the recovery leg
Loss of 159.93 swing low reopens downside toward the intervention zone
Ueda BoJ presser and US ECI/Chicago PMI (12:30-14:00 GMT) could materially shift this read
07:16 UTC
Rebound off lows, stalling · RSI 46 · price 160.35
Consolidating below session high after intervention flush.
USDJPY collapsed ~480 pips below 160 on suspected BoJ/MoF intervention and cooler US GDP/PCE, then clawed back to stall around 160.88. Last hour probed 159.93 — a false break below the consolidation floor that was bought back to 160.35; price now holds mid-range with RSI(14) neutral near 46.
Support: 159.93, 159.50
Resistance: 160.88
What it said to watch
M15 close below 159.93 confirms a lower low and reopens the 159.50 intervention zone
Reclaim of 160.88 session high resumes the rebound
Ueda BoJ press conference and US ECI/Chicago PMI later today could materially shift this read
Consolidating below 160.88 recovery high, rolling back toward 160.00.
USDJPY collapsed ~480 pips below 160 on suspected MoF intervention and cooler US GDP/PCE, bottoming near 157.96 before a London-session recovery capped at 160.88. Price is now drifting back toward the 160.00 handle, RSI(14) sub-45, with 159.93 the last swing low.
Support: 160.00, 159.93, 158.51
Resistance: 160.54, 160.88
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 160.54 reopens the path to the 160.88 session high
Loss of 159.93 exposes the 158.51 spike-low zone
Ueda BoJ presser and US ECI (12:30 GMT) could materially shift this read
USD/JPY collapsed ~480 pips below 160 on suspected BoJ intervention during the London session, bottoming near 158.0 before grinding back into a 160.3-160.9 consolidation. Latest bars pulled back, dipping to 159.93 before reclaiming the 160.00 handle; RSI(14) cooled to the mid-40s as the recovery stalled.
Support: 160.00, 159.93, 159.50
Resistance: 160.75, 160.88
What it said to watch
M15 close below 160.00 reopens the path toward the 159.50 intervention low
Break above 160.88 session high resumes the recovery grind
Ueda BoJ press conference and US ECI/Chicago PMI later today could materially shift this read
Sharp drop then base and recovery, now consolidating.
USDJPY cratered ~480 pips on suspected MoF intervention amid broad USD softness, bottoming near 158.00 before recovering to a session high of 160.88. Price has since pulled back into a 160.23–160.88 consolidation and sits at 160.44, back below EMA20 with RSI(14) mid-range.
Support: 160.23, 160.00
Resistance: 160.88
What it said to watch
BoJ press conference headlines are live and could drive sharp two-way volatility this session
Close below 160.00 psych reopens the downside toward the intervention lows
Reclaim of the 160.88 session high needed to extend the recovery
Rebound from 158 low into 160.88, shallow pullback.
USDJPY clawed back from the ~158 intervention low to a session high at 160.88 before rejecting; price now consolidates near 160.44, just under EMA20 and holding the 160.00 psych level. BoJ press conference at 06:30 UTC is the live driver behind the choppy two-way action.
Support: 160.00, 159.50
Resistance: 160.88
What it said to watch
BoJ press conference tone (Ueda) is the dominant near-term catalyst
M15 close below 160.00 psych reopens the 159.50 pivot
Reclaim of 160.88 session high extends the recovery leg
Consolidation between 160.30 and 160.88 post-plunge.
USDJPY collapsed ~480 pips below 160 on suspected MoF intervention, then recovered and ground into a 160.30–160.88 range. Recent bars rejected the 160.88 session high and pulled back toward 160.30, RSI cooling to mid-range as the BoJ press conference lands.
Support: 160.00, 159.50
Resistance: 160.88, 160.75
What it said to watch
BoJ press conference at 06:30 UTC is the dominant near-term driver and can break this range either way
Close below 160.00 psych reopens the 159.50 intervention pivot
Close above 160.88 session high extends the recovery leg
USD/JPY collapsed ~480 pips below 160 on suspected BoJ intervention, then clawed back to a session high of 160.88; it's now pulling back to 160.32 with RSI(14) cooling near 46. The recovery leg holds above the 159.90 shelf, but momentum has stalled under the session high.
Support: 160.32, 159.90
Resistance: 160.88
What it said to watch
Ueda BoJ presser imminent (06:30 GMT) — decisive intraday catalyst that could invalidate this read
Reclaim of 160.88 session high opens continuation of the recovery leg
Failure to hold 160.32 recent low exposes the 159.90 shelf
06:16 UTC
Recovery off intervention low, pulling back · RSI 47 · price 160.415
Consolidating below session high after ~480-pip plunge.
USD/JPY has clawed back roughly 300 pips off the 157.96 intervention low, capping near the 160.88 session high before fading to 160.30. Price is now consolidating just below EMA20 as the market waits on the BoJ Ueda presser, RSI(14) cooled to the mid-40s.
Support: 160.30, 159.90, 157.96
Resistance: 160.88
What it said to watch
BoJ Ueda presser at 06:30 GMT — decisive intraday catalyst
Close below 160.30 session low opens a retest of 159.90
Reclaim of 160.88 session high resumes the recovery leg
06:01 UTC
Recovering after intervention plunge · RSI 55 · price 160.595
Higher lows, consolidating near session highs.
USDJPY collapsed nearly 480 pips below 160 on suspected MoF intervention, then clawed back to 160.6 through the Asian session on a chain of higher lows. Price is now stalling just under the 160.88 session high with RSI(14) mid-range; the imminent Ueda presser is the immediate risk to this recovery read.
Support: 160.43
Resistance: 160.88
What it said to watch
BoJ Ueda press conference at 06:30 GMT is the decisive intraday catalyst
Break above 160.88 session high extends the recovery leg
Loss of 160.43 swing low breaks the higher-low chain
USDJPY collapsed ~480 pips below 160 on suspected MoF intervention during the prior session, printing a spike low near 157.96 before buyers clawed it back to session highs at 160.88. Price now consolidates 160.43–160.88 in the London morning; RSI(14) neutral near 54 after the recovery leg stalled.
Support: 160.43, 160.00
Resistance: 160.88
What it said to watch
BoJ Ueda presser at 06:30 GMT — decisive intraday catalyst for this read
Reclaim of 160.88 session high opens continuation of the recovery
Loss of 160.43 swing low reopens the path toward 160.00 psych
Higher lows off intervention low, testing session high.
USDJPY has clawed back from the ~157.96 intervention low in a steady Asian-session grind, now stalling at the 160.88 session high with RSI(14) cooling around 56. Higher lows hold above 160.43 but the recovery is losing pace into the BoJ event.
Support: 160.43
Resistance: 160.88, 161.18
What it said to watch
Ueda BoJ presser at 06:30 GMT is the decisive intraday catalyst
M15 close above 160.88 session high opens the path toward the 161.18 bounce high
Loss of 160.43 swing low breaks the higher-low chain
05:46 UTC
V-recovery off lows, consolidating · RSI 59 · price 160.687
Recovery leg into range near session highs.
USD/JPY collapsed nearly 480 pips below 160 on suspected MoF intervention, then staged a steady recovery leg back to the 160.88 session high. Price is now consolidating 160.43–160.88 into the London handover with RSI(14) mid-range. The BoJ Ueda presser at 06:30 GMT is the decisive intraday catalyst.
Support: 160.43, 160.13
Resistance: 160.88
What it said to watch
BoJ Ueda presser at 06:30 GMT could materially shift this read
M15 close above 160.88 session high extends the recovery leg
Loss of 160.43 swing low reopens the recovery low near 160.13
Higher lows off intervention low, capped below session high.
Suspected BoJ/MoF intervention crushed USDJPY ~480 pips through 160 to the 157.95 interv low; buyers have since ground it back to 160.7 in a steady rising channel. Price is stalling just under the 160.88 session high, holding well above the 160.00 psych level.
Support: 160.00, 159.50
Resistance: 160.88, 161.00
What it said to watch
BoJ Ueda presser 06:30 UTC (~1h) is the swing factor — hawkish October hint vs boilerplate reshapes this read
M15 close above session high 160.88 opens the path back toward 161.00
Loss of 160.00 psych reopens the 159.50 interv low
Higher lows off intervention crash, coiling near session high.
USD/JPY has clawed back from the suspected-intervention crash below 159.50, grinding higher lows through the Asian session to stall near 160.88. Price is now coiling in a tight 160.50-160.80 band, RSI(14) mid-range around 59, with the 160.00 psych pivot holding as recovery support.
Support: 160.43, 160.00, 159.50
Resistance: 160.88, 161.00
What it said to watch
BoJ presser at 06:30 UTC (~75min) is the dominant catalyst and can override this structure
M15 close above 160.88 session high opens the path back toward 161.00
Failure to hold 160.43 swing low breaks the higher-low chain
USDJPY has clawed back from the 157.96 intervention low to 160.66, printing a chain of higher lows through the Asian session with RSI(14) mid-range. Price is consolidating just under the 160.88 session high after the suspected Tokyo intervention flushed it ~480 pips below 160 yesterday.
Support: 160.00, 159.37
Resistance: 160.88
What it said to watch
BoJ Ueda press conference ~06:30 UTC (~1.5h) is the dominant near-term driver and can break this recovery either way
Loss of 160.00 psych level re-opens the session low at 159.37
M15 close above 160.88 session high extends the recovery leg
USDJPY is grinding back up after the ~480-pip intervention flush below 160, printing higher lows from 157.96 and now consolidating just under the 160.88 session high. RSI(14) sits mid-range near 57, no extreme; buyers stepped in repeatedly around 160.43 through the recovery.
Support: 160.43, 160.00
Resistance: 160.88, 161.18
What it said to watch
BoJ/Ueda press conference at 06:30 UTC (~1.5h) is the key near-term driver and could reset this read
A close back below 160.00 psych re-engages the intervention low
Break and hold above 160.88 opens the path back toward the 161.18 spike wick
USD/JPY plunged ~480 pips below 160 on suspected BoJ intervention during the Asia session, bottoming at 157.96; a steady grind of higher lows has since recovered price to 160.71. RSI(14) mid-range near 59, holding above the 160.00 psych pivot with the 160.88 session high capping.
Support: 160.00, 157.96
Resistance: 160.88, 161.18
What it said to watch
BoJ Ueda press conference ~06:30 UTC (~2h) is the dominant near-term JPY driver
Loss of 160.00 psych reopens the intervention lows
Close above 160.88 session high opens the path to 161.18
USDJPY cratered ~480 pips below 160 on suspected BoJ intervention plus soft US GDP roughly 15h ago, bottoming at 157.96. Price has since ground back above 160.00 in a stair-step recovery, printing higher lows into 160.72 with RSI near 62; the 160.88 session high caps for now.
Support: 160.00
Resistance: 160.88, 161.18
What it said to watch
BoJ Ueda press conference ~06:30 UTC (2h) is the dominant near-term driver
M15 close back below 160.00 puts the intervention low back in focus
Break and hold above 160.88 opens the 161.18 spike high
US ECI at 12:30 UTC could spark a USD relief bounce
Higher lows since intervention low, back above 160.00.
USDJPY has clawed back from the suspected-intervention plunge (~480 pips to 157.96) and reclaimed the 160.00 pivot, grinding to 160.88 before easing to 160.72 in Asia hours. Higher-low chain intact; RSI(14) mid-range with no extreme.
Support: 160.00, 159.50
Resistance: 160.88, 161.18
What it said to watch
BoJ press conference at 06:30 UTC (~2h) is the dominant near-term risk for this pair
Loss of 160.00 reopens the 159.50 session low
Close above 160.88 extends the recovery toward the 161.18 spike high
USDJPY has clawed back from the suspected-intervention plunge to 157.96, reclaiming the 160.00 pivot and grinding up to a session high at 160.88. RSI(14) near 61 as the recovery leg extends; price holding above its rising 160.50 swing base into Asia hours.
Support: 160.50, 160.00, 159.37
Resistance: 160.88, 161.18
What it said to watch
BoJ press conference at 06:30 UTC (~2h) is the dominant near-term driver for this read
Loss of 160.00 reopens the 159.37 session low
M15 close above 160.88 extends the recovery toward the 161.18 spike high
After the suspected BoJ intervention plunge to 157.96, price has ground back up in a rising channel and reclaimed the 160.00 psych level, now consolidating near 160.72 below the 160.88 session high. RSI(14) sits mid-range around 58; buyers stepped in repeatedly on the recovery leg, though the move is off the extreme, not fresh momentum.
Support: 160.00, 159.37
Resistance: 160.88, 161.18
What it said to watch
BoJ press conference at 06:30 UTC (~2h) is the single biggest driver — hawkish October signal vs boilerplate reshapes this read
M15 close back below 160.00 negates the recovery and re-exposes the 159.37 swing low
Break above 160.88 opens the path toward 161.18
04:01 UTC
Recovering off intervention low · RSI 62 · price 160.654
Higher lows since 158.51 base.
USDJPY is grinding back up in a chain of higher lows after the suspected-intervention plunge from 163.7 to 158.51, reclaiming the 160.00 psych level with the session high at 160.88 capping. RSI(14) near 62, no extreme; the recovery has retested and held above 160.00 into the Asia-London handover.
Support: 160.00, 159.50, 158.51
Resistance: 160.88
What it said to watch
BoJ press conference at 06:30 UTC (~2.5h) is the dominant near-term driver and can reset this read entirely
M15 close back below 160.00 reopens the 159.50 prior low
Break and hold above 160.88 extends the recovery leg
03:46 UTC
Recovering off intervention low · RSI 64 · price 160.654
HH/HL chain since 158.00 base.
USD/JPY was slammed ~480 pips below 160 on suspected Tokyo intervention, then clawed back through the 160.00 psych level in a steady HH/HL recovery, printing a session high at 160.88. Price is holding above EMA20/50 with RSI in the low 60s, consolidating in the upper end of the recovery range.
Support: 160.00, 159.37
Resistance: 160.88
What it said to watch
Ueda presser at 06:30 UTC (~3h) is the decisive swing factor — could reprice this read sharply
Loss of 160.00 psych reopens the 159.37 swing low
Close above session high 160.88 extends the recovery leg
03:31 UTC
Recovering, momentum up · RSI 66 · price 160.726
Higher lows off intervention low, retracing crash.
USDJPY is grinding back up after the suspected-intervention crash to 157.96, printing a steady higher-low chain and reclaiming 160.00 into the Asian session. Price is retracing roughly half the drop, RSI(14) mid-60s and firm, with buyers defending the 160.43 area on the last dip.
Support: 160.432, 160.00, 158.514
Resistance: 160.879, 161.179
What it said to watch
Ueda BoJ presser (~3h) is the decisive catalyst and could reset this read
Loss of 160.00 reopens the 158.51 recovery low
Close above 160.88 session high extends the retrace toward 161.18
03:16 UTC
Recovery bounce, momentum up · RSI 63 · price 160.726
Higher lows after intervention flush.
USDJPY was flushed ~480 pips through 160.00 to sub-158 on suspected Tokyo intervention, and is now grinding back up in a clean chain of higher lows, trading 160.73 back above the 160.00 psych level. The recovery has reclaimed the round number as intervention-driven yen longs unwind; RSI(14) elevated near 63 but not extreme.
Support: 160.00
Resistance: 160.88, 161.18
What it said to watch
BoJ press conference 06:30 UTC could sharply shift this read
Close back below 160.00 reasserts the intervention-driven downdraft
Reclaim of 160.88 session high opens the path to the 161.18 spike high
USDJPY has clawed back nearly 280 pips off the suspected-intervention low at 157.96, now consolidating just under the 160.74 session high with RSI(14) cooling from stretched levels. Recovery is intact but stalling into the 160.00 psych pivot flagged around the BoJ event; buyers stepped in repeatedly around 160.43.
Support: 160.43, 160.00
Resistance: 160.74
What it said to watch
BoJ press conference at 06:30 UTC is the key vol event and could materially shift this read
M15 close above 160.74 opens the path back toward the pre-spike zone
Failure to hold 160.00 reopens the intervention-driven downside
Grinding higher off intervention low, stalling under session high.
USDJPY clawed back from the suspected-intervention plunge to ~157.95, grinding up through Asian hours to a session high of 160.744; now consolidating just under it around 160.51. RSI has cooled to the mid-50s as the recovery leg flattens below the high.
Support: 160.43, 160.00
Resistance: 160.744, 160.686
What it said to watch
BoJ press conference at 06:30 UTC is a material vol event that could reprice this read
Reclaim of 160.744 session high opens continuation of the recovery
Loss of 160.43 swing low risks a pullback toward the 160.00 psych pivot
HH/HL chain off post-intervention low, back above 160.00.
USDJPY plunged ~480 pips on suspected MoF intervention to 157.96, then ground back above the 160.00 psych level into the session high at 160.74. Price has held a rising sequence of higher lows off 159.36 as the BoJ decision looms.
Support: 160.00, 159.36
Resistance: 160.74
What it said to watch
BoJ rate decision at 03:00 UTC (~15m away) will override this structure — hawkish guidance keeps price pinned below 160.00, boilerplate risks a snapback higher
Loss of 160.00 psych re-opens the session low at 159.36
Close above 160.74 session high extends the recovery leg
02:31 UTC
Recovery off intervention low · RSI 63 · price 160.577
Higher lows, reclaimed 160.00.
USDJPY collapsed ~480 pips to 158.51 on suspected MoF/BoJ intervention, then ground back above the 160.00 psych level into the Asia session, printing higher lows up to 160.744. RSI(14) mid-60s, no extreme; price holding above EMA20/50 as the reclaim of 160.00 sticks for now.
Support: 160.00, 158.51
Resistance: 160.744, 161.18
What it said to watch
BoJ rate decision at 03:00 UTC (~30m out) — guidance can violently reset this read
Loss of 160.00 reopens the path back toward the 158.51 intervention low
Close above 160.744 session high extends the recovery toward 161.18
Higher lows since sub-158, grinding back toward 160.75.
Suspected BoJ/MoF intervention flushed USD/JPY ~480 pips from 163.5 to sub-158 during the American session; Asia hours have seen a steady grind back to 160.74. Price is building higher lows into the 160.00 psych pivot with RSI(14) near 62, but the BoJ decision at 03:00 UTC sits directly ahead.
Support: 160.00
Resistance: 160.744, 160.686
What it said to watch
BoJ rate decision at 03:00 UTC (~45m) will materially shift this read
Loss of 160.00 keeps the intervention/hawkish narrative alive
M15 close above 160.744 extends the recovery leg
02:01 UTC
Recovering off intervention low · RSI 70 · price 160.713
Higher lows since 158.51, 160.00 reclaimed.
USDJPY has clawed back from the suspected MoF intervention flush to 158.51 and reclaimed the 160.00 pivot, printing a steady chain of higher lows into the Asian session. RSI(14) near 69 as price presses the 160.74 session high; BoJ decision at 03:00 UTC is the immediate catalyst.
Support: 160.00, 158.51
Resistance: 160.74, 161.18
What it said to watch
BoJ rate decision + Outlook at 03:00 UTC will drive the next leg
Failure to hold 160.00 revives the intervention/downside read
Close above 160.74 opens the path back toward 161.18
02:01 UTC
Recovering off intervention low · RSI 66 · price 160.606
Higher lows since sub-158 flush, back above 160.00.
USD/JPY cratered ~480 pips below 160 on suspected Tokyo intervention, printing a low at 157.96 before a steady grind back through the psychological 160.00 pivot to 160.60. A chain of higher lows has held through the NY-to-Asia handover, RSI(14) around 66 with buyers stepping in on each dip. Structure is a clean intervention-low recovery, but it is developing directly into the BoJ decision.
Support: 160.00, 159.28
Resistance: 160.69
What it said to watch
BoJ rate decision at 03:00 UTC (~1h) will override this read entirely
Sustained hold above 160.00 keeps the recovery intact; loss of it reopens 159.28
Close above 160.69 session high extends the higher-high sequence
01:46 UTC
Recovering off intervention low · RSI 63 · price 160.503
Higher lows, reclaiming 160.00.
USDJPY was flushed ~480 pips sub-160 on suspected Tokyo intervention, and has since ground back to 160.50, reclaiming the 160.00 psych pivot on a steady chain of higher lows. RSI(14) near 63, buyers stepping in above 160.00; session high 160.686 is the immediate cap.
Support: 160.00, 159.37
Resistance: 160.686, 161.18
What it said to watch
BoJ decision at 03:00 UTC will override this read — guidance the mover
Loss of 160.00 reopens the 159.37 swing low and revives the intervention squeeze
M15 close above 160.686 extends the recovery toward 161.18
USD/JPY collapsed ~480 pips through 160.00 on suspected MoF intervention, then carved a steady recovery — a chain of higher lows off 158.51 has price pressing the 160.69 session high. RSI(14) near 63, room before overbought; the 160.00 handle now acts as reclaimed pivot.
Support: 160.00, 159.37
Resistance: 160.69, 161.18
What it said to watch
BoJ statement 03:00 UTC and Ueda presser 06:30 UTC are the dominant near-term risk
Loss of 160.00 reopens the intervention lows toward 159.37
M15 close above 160.69 extends the recovery toward 161.18
01:31 UTC
Sharp drop, recovering · RSI 64 · price 160.503
Recovery off intervention low, back above 160.00.
USD/JPY collapsed ~480 pips through 160.00 into 157.96 on suspected MoF/BoJ intervention, then ground back up to 160.5 through the Asian session. The 160.00 handle has flipped to a pivot the recovery is holding above, RSI(14) mid-range at ~63; session high sits at 160.68.
Support: 160.00, 158.514
Resistance: 161.179
What it said to watch
BoJ decision at 03:00 UTC (~1.5h) plus Ueda tone could materially shift this read
Failure to hold 160.00 reopens the intervention low near 158.51
M15 close above 160.68 extends the recovery toward 161.18
01:16 UTC
Recovering after intervention crash · RSI 66 · price 160.566
Higher lows off 157.96 base.
USD/JPY collapsed ~480 pips through 160.00 into 157.96 on suspected MoF intervention, then based and ground back above the 160.00 handle, now 160.57 with RSI(14) near 66. Recovery holding a chain of higher lows; 160.69 session high is the immediate cap.
Support: 160.00, 159.37
Resistance: 160.69, 161.18
What it said to watch
BoJ decision at 03:00 UTC (~2h) — guidance is the swing factor and can invalidate this recovery read
Loss of 160.00 pivot reopens the 159.37 swing low
M15 close above 160.69 extends the recovery toward 161.18
01:02 UTC
Recovery leg off intervention low · RSI 66 · price 160.566
Higher lows since 158.0 crash bottom.
USD/JPY crashed ~400 pips through 160.00 on suspected MoF intervention plus a hot Tokyo CPI print, bottoming near 158.0 before grinding back to reclaim the 160.00 pivot, now at 160.57. Recovery has printed a clean higher-low chain and RSI(14) sits mid-60s, hot but not stretched. The BoJ decision at 03:00 UTC — roughly two hours out — is the swing for this read.
Support: 160.00, 158.51
Resistance: 160.686
What it said to watch
BoJ decision + Outlook Report at 03:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close back below 160.00 reopens downside toward the 158.51 swing low
Break above 160.686 session high extends the recovery leg
Higher lows off intervention low, reclaiming 160.00.
USDJPY was slammed ~400+ pips through 160.00 to 157.96 on suspected MoF intervention, then ground back into a steady recovery leg now reclaiming the 160.00 pivot at 160.57. Micro-structure is a chain of higher lows, RSI(14) firm near 66, with session high resistance at 160.69 capping the current push.
Support: 160.00
Resistance: 160.69
What it said to watch
BoJ decision + Outlook Report at 03:00 UTC (~2h) is the dominant catalyst and can override this read
M15 close back below 160.00 reopens the intervention low zone
Break and hold above 160.69 extends the recovery leg
00:47 UTC
Recovering off intervention low · RSI 68 · price 160.542
Higher lows since 157.96, reclaiming 160.00.
USDJPY was violently squeezed through 160.00 to 157.96 on suspected MoF intervention plus hot Tokyo CPI, then ground back up in a chain of higher lows to a session high at 160.54, reclaiming the 160.00 line. RSI(14) near 67 with recovery still intact; price is now retracing roughly half of the crash leg.
Support: 160.00, 158.51
Resistance: 160.54, 161.18
What it said to watch
BoJ decision at 03:00 UTC (~2h) — Outlook guidance could materially shift this read
Failure to hold 160.00 reopens the 158.51 drop low
M15 close above 160.54 extends the recovery toward the spike wick at 161.18
Higher lows off intervention low, reclaiming 160.00.
Suspected MoF intervention flushed USDJPY over 400 pips through the 160.00 line to a 157.96 low; price has since carved higher lows and reclaimed the pivot, now pressing the 160.40 session high. RSI(14) around 61 with ATR ~23 pips as the recovery leg builds into the BoJ decision.
Support: 160.00, 157.96
Resistance: 160.40, 161.18
What it said to watch
BoJ rate decision + Outlook Report at 03:00 UTC (~2h) will override this read
Failure to hold 160.00 reopens the 157.96 intervention low
M15 close above 160.40 extends the recovery toward 161.18
USDJPY was smashed from 163 to a 157.96 low on suspected MoF intervention, then carved a chain of higher lows back to 160.28, reclaiming the 160.00 pivot flagged in the intervention narrative. Recovery leg is intact with RSI(14) around 65; session high sits at 160.40.
Support: 160.00, 159.37
Resistance: 160.40, 161.18
What it said to watch
BoJ decision at 03:00 UTC (~2.5h) is the swing factor — a clear October-hike signal keeps price pressed below 160.00
Failure to hold 160.00 reopens the 159.37 higher low
Close above 160.40 extends the recovery toward the 161.18 spike high
00:31 UTC
Sharp down day, recovering off lows · RSI 62 · price 160.279
Higher lows building off 157.96 base.
Suspected MoF intervention smashed USD/JPY from ~163.5 to a 157.96 low during the NY session, a violent squeeze on soft US GDP/PCE. Price has since carved higher lows and reclaimed the 160.00 psych pivot, tagging a 160.40 session high; RSI(14) back in the low-60s off oversold.
Support: 160.00, 159.37, 158.51
Resistance: 160.40, 161.18
What it said to watch
BoJ decision at 03:00 UTC (~2.5h) is the swing factor — guidance could reprice this move
Holding above the 160.00 pivot keeps the recovery intact
Close above 160.40 session high opens the path to 161.18
Loss of 159.37 swing low reopens the 158.51 crash base
00:16 UTC
Recovering off intervention low · RSI 63 · price 160.324
Sharp selloff, higher lows building.
USD/JPY was smashed from ~162.8 to a 157.96 low on suspected MoF intervention during US hours, then ground back up through 160.00 to reclaim 160.32. Higher lows have been carving out since the flush, with the 160.00 psych pivot now acting as near-term support.
Support: 160.00, 159.36, 157.96
Resistance: 160.40
What it said to watch
BoJ decision at 03:00 UTC (~3h) plus Ueda presser — dominant catalyst for the next bars
Failure to hold 160.00 re-opens the 159.36 swing low
Close above 160.40 session high extends the recovery leg
00:16 UTC
Recovering off intervention low, short-term up · RSI 67 · price 160.324
Higher lows since 157.96, reclaiming 160.00.
USD/JPY is grinding back off the 157.96 low struck during the suspected MoF intervention squeeze, reclaiming the 160.00 psych level and pressing the 160.40 session high into the Asia session. The recovery is roughly a 50% retracement of the intervention drop; RSI(14) around 67 is warm but not extreme.
Support: 160.00, 159.37
Resistance: 160.40
What it said to watch
BoJ statement/Outlook at 03:00 UTC (~3h) is the dominant catalyst for the next bars
Loss of 160.00 psych reopens the 159.37 swing low
Close above 160.40 session high extends the recovery
00:01 UTC
Recovering off intervention low · RSI 71 · price 160.151
Higher lows since 157.96, reclaiming 160.00.
USD/JPY collapsed ~2.4% during the US session on suspected MoF intervention, printing 157.96 before a steady grind back to 160.15. Buyers reclaimed the 160.00 pivot and are pressing the 160.19 session high with RSI(14) hot near 71, but this all sits ahead of the BoJ decision.
Support: 160.00
Resistance: 160.19
What it said to watch
BoJ statement + Outlook Report at 03:00 UTC (~3h) is the dominant catalyst and could reprice this read entirely
Sustained trade below 160.00 keeps the intervention narrative intact
Close above 160.19 opens the path back toward the 163 pre-intervention area