Lower highs; recovery off 61.49 capped under 70.50.
Silver spiked to 71.54 then collapsed to 67.37 on the final bar, a sharp rejection as the hawkish FOMC dot-plot (3.8%/3.6%) and a hot 0.9% retail sales print repriced real yields. That false break above the 70.50 resistance has pushed price back below the 200-day SMA at 68.59, the pivot of the prior reclaim. ATR(14) is expanding off the move, with the broader window showing lower highs from the 78.80 area.
Support: 63.40
Resistance: 68.59, 70.50, 71.54
What it said to watch
Failure to reclaim 68.59 keeps price below the recovered 200-day pivot
Hawkish Powell presser follow-through could pressure toward the 63.40 swing low
Silver recovered sharply off the early-June base near 61.50 and built higher lows back toward 71, but the latest bar slammed into the 70.50-71.54 supply band and reversed almost 4.50 to close at 67.37 — a hawkish FOMC dot-plot lift and a hot retail sales beat repricing the metal lower. Price now sits back below both EMA20 and EMA50, with the 200-day SMA at 68.59 as the immediate bull/bear pivot. The double-bottom recovery thesis holds only while that level survives.
Support: 68.59, 63.80
Resistance: 70.50, 71.54
What it said to watch
Sustained close below 68.59 (200d sma) opens 63.80
Reclaim of 70.50 cap needed to revive the recovery
FOMC presser and Thu jobless claims could shift this read
Higher lows off the 61.50 base, capped near the 70.50-71.30 zone.
Silver has carved a ~14% recovery off the 61.50 double-bottom, printing higher lows and now reclaiming the 70.50 pivot with the last bar closing at 70.797. Price sits above EMA20 and EMA50 but remains capped under the 71.30 swing high and the broader 72.25 / 50-DMA 74.55 supply zone. The move is now a pure rates trade with the FOMC decision and dot-plot imminent.
Support: 68.59, 67.55
Resistance: 71.30, 72.25, 74.55
What it said to watch
FOMC decision and dot-plot in ~1h could materially shift this read
Sustained close above 71.30 opens the path to the 72.25 range edge
Higher highs/lows off the 61.49 low, breaking the 70.50 pivot.
Silver has rebounded roughly 14% off the 61.49 low, carving a double bottom and reclaiming the 200-DMA at 68.59 with a sequence of higher highs and lows. The last bar pushed through the 70.50 pivot to close at 70.80, the first clean test above that cap; ATR remains elevated, keeping range expansion in play. Price action is now a pure rates trade with FOMC imminent.
Support: 70.50, 68.59
Resistance: 72.25, 74.55
What it said to watch
FOMC decision/dot-plot at 18:00 UTC (~1h) can override this structural read
Sustained acceptance above 70.50 opens the 72.25 / 50-DMA 74.55 zone
Loss of the 68.59 200-dma reopens the 63.80 area and negates the higher-low sequence
13:03 UTC
Uptrend, momentum slowing · RSI 53 · price 69.766
Higher highs/lows, stalling at 70.50 pivot.
Silver staged a near 14% recovery off the 61.50 base back above 70, with the Gold/Silver unwind and softer USD driving the five-day run. Momentum has flattened right at the 70.50 pivot, with the last several H4 bars coiling between 69.30 and 71.30 just above the reclaimed 200-day SMA at 68.59. ATR remains elevated from the impulse leg, but range compression near the highs reads as consolidation ahead of the FOMC dot plot.
Support: 68.59
Resistance: 70.50, 71.31, 72.25
What it said to watch
H4 close above 70.50 pivot opens path to 72.25
Failure to hold 68.59 200-day SMA opens slide toward 63.80
FOMC dot plot at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Silver staged a violent recovery off the 61.50 double bottom, reclaiming the 200-day SMA near 68.59 and the prior shelf before stalling under the 71.31 five-day high — a move tied to the US-Iran de-escalation that sank oil and softened the dollar. Price is now consolidating in a tight 69.00-71.30 band with ATR easing, momentum flattening into resistance. EMA20 and EMA50 remain below price, keeping the recovery structure intact while the metal pins the 70.50 pivot.
Support: 69.05, 68.59, 63.80
Resistance: 71.31, 72.25
What it said to watch
FOMC dot plot at 18:00 UTC is the catalyst and could materially shift this read
H4 close above 71.31 opens the path to the 72.25 barrier
Failure to hold 68.59 200dma exposes the 63.80 shelf
V-recovery, higher lows since $61.50, coiling at $70.
Silver staged a sharp V-recovery off the $61.50 low, reclaiming the 200-dma and stacking higher lows over the last week before parking just under the $70.50 pivot. The metal has gone sideways for several H4 bars between 69.05 and 71.31 as the rally loses steam — a textbook consolidation/retest above the broken level. Momentum is hostage to the FOMC dot plot, with the recovery already pricing US-Iran de-escalation and a softer USD.
Support: 69.05, 68.59
Resistance: 70.50, 71.31, 74.55
What it said to watch
FOMC dot plot at 18:00 UTC is the catalyst — a hawkish set risks a slide back through the 200-dma at 68.59
A close above the 70.50 pivot and the 71.31 swing high opens the path toward the 50-day ema at 74.55
Failure to hold the 69.05 swing low confirms a lower-low and stalls the recovery
Silver has staged a sharp V-recovery from the 61.49 low, reclaiming the 200-DMA at 68.59 on five sessions of de-escalation-driven buying and a softer USD. Price is now coiling just under the 70.50 breakout pivot, with the EMA20 crossing back above EMA50 and ATR(14) compressing — the prior expansion has cooled into a tight range. The Fed dot plot at 18:00 UTC is the catalyst that will decide whether this consolidation resolves higher or rolls back through 68.59.
Support: 68.59, 61.49
Resistance: 70.50
What it said to watch
H4 close above 70.50 opens the path toward 74.55
Failure to hold 68.59 reopens downside toward 63.80
FOMC dot plot at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Silver staged a ~14% V-recovery off the 61.49 low to reclaim the 70.00 handle, helped by the US-Iran de-escalation framework, collapsing oil and a softer USD. Price has since stalled into a tight 69.05-71.31 band, with momentum flattening as the rebound matures. ATR(14) remains elevated near 850 pips, keeping the consolidation wide.
Support: 70.00, 69.05, 68.00
Resistance: 71.31, 72.25
What it said to watch
FOMC decision + dot plot at 18:00 UTC is the dominant two-way risk for this read
H4 close above 71.31 opens the path toward the 72.25 barrier
Failure to hold 69.05 reopens the downside toward 68.00
05:03 UTC
Uptrend, consolidating into FOMC · RSI 61 · price 70.102
Higher lows off $61, capped below 71.30.
Silver has rebounded ~14% off the $61.02 YTD low, reclaiming the 200-day SMA and the $70 psych pivot as US-Iran de-escalation and a softer USD drove the bid. Price is now coiling in a tight 69.05-71.30 band with EMA20 holding above EMA50, ATR compressing after the sharp impulse. The structure remains a recovery, but momentum is stalling directly under the 71.30 swing high ahead of the Fed decision.
Support: 70.00, 69.05
Resistance: 71.30, 72.25
What it said to watch
H4 close above 71.30 opens the path toward 72.25
Failure to hold 70.00, then 69.05, confirms a lower-high and loss of the rebound
FOMC dot-plot at 18:00 UTC is the dominant two-way risk for this read
Silver has ripped ~14% off the 61.49 YTD low to a 71.30 high on the US-Iran framework, softer USD and a collapsing oil price, printing a clean run of higher highs and higher lows. The advance is now stalling below the 70.50 breakout pivot, with the latest bars compressing into a tight range as momentum cools ahead of the Fed. EMA20 sits above EMA50, confirming the bullish swing structure, but ATR remains elevated from the recovery leg.
Support: 69.05, 67.82
Resistance: 70.50, 71.30
What it said to watch
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC plus Retail Sales 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H4 close above 71.30 extends the recovery toward 72.25
Loss of 69.05 confirms a lower-low and re-exposes 67.82
Silver staged a ~14% V-recovery off the $61.02 YTD low after the US-Iran framework knocked oil and the dollar lower, and has since gone sideways in a 69.05-71.31 band. Price is now pinned just under the 70.50 breakout pivot with the last four bars compressing — ATR has cooled from the crash-week extremes. The read is a consolidation ahead of the Fed.
Support: 69.05, 68.04
Resistance: 70.79, 71.31
What it said to watch
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC are the dominant catalysts and can break this range either way