Every read JAFX AI made on the XAU/USD daily chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
21:05 UTC
Downtrend, rebound off base · RSI 53 · price 4,180.13
Q2 downtrend, double-bottom bounce.
Gold has trended lower from the February high near 5419, shedding roughly a third of its value through Q2 into a June low around 3940. A double bottom near 3940-3960 sparked a rebound after last week's soft NFP miss (57K vs 110K), but the recovery stalled at 4202 and price is now consolidating between 4100 and 4202, back above a rising EMA(20) yet still capped below a falling EMA(50). The advance remains a corrective bounce inside the broader downtrend until the descending resistance is cleared.
Support: 4,100.00, 4,000.00, 3,940.00
Resistance: 4,202.00, 4,280.00
What it said to watch
- Daily close above 4202 opens the path to the 4280 target and descending trendline
- Failure to hold the 4100 pivot exposes 4000 round number and the 3940 double bottom
- FOMC Minutes Wed Jul 8 could materially shift this read
21:05 UTC
Downtrend, bottoming attempt · RSI 49 · price 4,180.13
Multi-month lower highs, base forming near 3960.
XAUUSD has been in a sustained downtrend since the late-February break from ~5300, with a sharp Q2 slide bottoming near 3960 in late June. Last Thursday's soft 57K NFP print fuelled a rebound that stalled at 4202, and price is now consolidating in the 4100-4200 band above a reclaimed EMA20 but still well below a falling EMA50. RSI has lifted off oversold toward the midline, consistent with a corrective/basing phase rather than a fresh leg up.
Support: 4,100.00, 4,000.00, 3,960.00
Resistance: 4,202.00, 4,280.00
What it said to watch
- FOMC Minutes Wed Jul 8 18:00 UTC is the key catalyst and could materially shift this read
- Daily close above 4202 opens the path toward 4280
- Failure to hold the 4100 pivot risks a retest of 4000 and the 3960 swing low